politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove
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I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy1 -
(Don't tell them it's really Empire 3.11 for Workgroups)Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy1 -
He uses polls like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support not illuminationkle4 said:
I feel like observing HYUFD working his polling referencing is like watching a magician at work, all flash and with the feeling I am missing seeing the actual trick.HYUFD said:
Maybe not too but again according to YouGov 26% of 2017 Labour voters, over a quarter, would still vote for No Deal over Revokebigjohnowls said:
Nor this Corbynite leaverRichard_Nabavi said:
Oi! You most certainly can't add this Tory to the No Deal madness mix.HYUFD said:The Brexit Party and UKIP combined got 35% of the vote in the European elections, and of course most Tories prefer No Deal to revoke too and add them to the mix and that makes 44%.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ci92bcdrx7/YouGov - what might help on Brexit.pdf2 -
Quite frankly that endears me to him.Nigelb said:
Apart from the last bit, sounds about right.rcs1000 said:
Yeah, but Biden (after a strong start) is stuttering hard. And Klobuchar is not benefiting because, although she's not a bad candidate, she doesn't have (errr) IT.edmundintokyo said:
That said, now that Biden is in the race KLOBUCHAR is getting big-footed for the whole electable moderate thing, so she really needs Biden to eat his own head to be in with a chance.edmundintokyo said:Absolutely not, I will never abandon Baemy
IT is a very hard to define thing. Has a candidate ever made the hairs on the back of your neck ever stood on end? (As Obama did with "there are no red states and blue states" speech.) Or has the candidate done something which (for positive reasons) get replayed and replayed and replayed on YouTube?
Klobuchar is competent. And moderate. And electable. But she doesn't excite.
In this race, there are two exciters: Elizabeth Warren, who is super bright and a policy wonk, and who is going down a storm. And Pete Buttigieg, who is incredibly engaging and (yes) makes the hairs stand up on the back of your neck when you hear him talk.
Sanders was an exciter. But his time has passed. Biden was never an exciter. He's just a name that people remember from the Obama era.
I suspect Iowa will be a four way tie between Buttigieg, Warren, Biden and Sanders. And that will be a deathknell for the old white guys. They were only up there because people thought they were winners. Once the "winner" mantle is removed, they are nothing.
Who will win between Buttigieg and Warren? I don't know. But those are the guys I'd tip to be fighting it out past Super Tuesday.
Too early to tell who’ll be fighting it out past Super Tuesday, though, and Iowa isn’t exactly the whole game so perhaps best not to over interpret a single state poll.
This sort of thing isn’t going to help Biden in Iowa:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/09/warren-booker-democrats-iowa-2020-1358526
Front-runner Joe Biden, who led the crowded Democratic presidential field in the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, had virtually no presence at the party event. His campaign said the former vice president missed the dinner due to his granddaughter‘s high school graduation...0 -
Actually very nice. We feasted on freshly picked strawberries and newly gathered eggs yesterdayrcs1000 said:
Still in LA. Still in sunny Brentwood. I was at the beach yesterday, and the kids were hanging out by the pool today.viewcode said:
You are Mr Chirpy Cheerful tonight, I think...rcs1000 said:
All this ignores the fact that Parliament is not going to pass any FTA that is acceptable to the US.viewcode said:
* Them voting for Hilary Clinton is a non sequitur in this context.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, of the 9 US states with over 15% Irish American population every one was in the North East and every one bar Pennsylvania voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.SouthamObserver said:
Bless your total ignorance. The Irish American lobby is incredibly powerful across the North East of the US, as well as the Mid-West. And is strong in both parties. There are a number of Congressional districts in red and blue states where you don’t get elected if it opposes you.
https://names.mongabay.com/ancestry/st-Irish.html
The Jewish, Hispanic, African American, Christian evangelical lobbies are now more powerful than the Irish American lobby and the Commerce and gun and evangelical lobbies certainly more influential with Republicans.
Indeed Trump was so unconcerned about the Irish fears over a hard border he told Varadkar last week that he wished him well with his country's border wall after Brexit
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-to-ireland-leo-varadkar-post-brexit-border-wall-will-work-out-well/
* Trump's unconcern is a non sequitur in this context.
* 9 states may have 15% or more Irish Americans, but 30-odd have 10% or more.
I might also point out that the US has not, of late, treated its FTA partners with much in the way of respect.
Where are you moving to, btw? Staying in LA or somewhere else?
How's the weather in London?0 -
So it's not just the Labour Party which does not know how to handle complaints of sexual harassment - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/oxfam-culture-still-toxic-says-whistleblower-8btwjsrsq.1
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That is another Tory attack line that will go straight out of the window when Boris enters Downing Street.Cyclefree said:So it's not just the Labour Party which does not know how to handle complaints of sexual harassment - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/oxfam-culture-still-toxic-says-whistleblower-8btwjsrsq.
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(Empire 4.0 will be just around the corner then, and an order of magnitude better).rcs1000 said:
(Don't tell them it's really Empire 3.11 for Workgroups)Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy0 -
Nah that’s Empire Vistarcs1000 said:
(Don't tell them it's really Empire 3.11 for Workgroups)Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy0 -
According to Today, Boris will raise threshold for the higher tax rate but increase NI upper limit to pay for it. Over 65 earners do not pay NI.
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Why is he bothering to pay for it? Noone else in the Tory leadership campaign seems to bother with costed promises, so why should he?Icarus said:According to Today, Boris will raise threshold for the higher tax rate but increase NI upper limit to pay for it. Over 65 earners do not pay NI.
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She looks good on paper but I don't think she's got the sparkle. She's the dullest person in my entire twitter feed.DecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris on a good day? Watching her video clips, she seems the most variable. Like a skilled boxer with no knockout punch. Or like the skilled lawyer she is, a better metaphor is building up a case in cross-examination but then stopping short to save something for her final summing up to the jury.
There was a time when you could have won by being solidly competent and ticking the right boxes, but I don't think that time is now. You need a certain amount of spikiness to compete in a social-media-driven environment.
That's something I think KLOBUCHAR *does* have, but it's hard to get people excited from the centre, unless you're Barack Obama.0 -
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.1 -
1. I thought it was the money he'd not going to pay the EUIcarus said:According to Today, Boris will raise threshold for the higher tax rate but increase NI upper limit to pay for it. Over 65 earners do not pay NI.
and
2. Who is going to be voting in the forthcoming Tory leadership elections? Other than higher rate taxpayers who are older than the average.0 -
Yawn. Dude. Get over yourself.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.0 -
The Times saying we're about to put pen to paper with South Korea. A few more of these and suddenly no deal becomes viable.
As I've said time and again, it's not the 40% of trade we do with the EU that is holding back business investment, it's the 25% of preferential trade we do elsewhere that needs to be clarified.
Having that 25% in the bank before leaving will change the game IMO which is why giving the job to Liam Fox was such an error.2 -
I was correcting your customarily ignorant statement that Empire 2.0 was a Remainer fantasy. It’s an old Leaver fantasy and like all old Leaver fantasies never to be spoken of again.Charles said:
Yawn. Dude. Get over yourself.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.1 -
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.0 -
Doubt he'll do either. Or if he does, just the latter.Icarus said:According to Today, Boris will raise threshold for the higher tax rate but increase NI upper limit to pay for it. Over 65 earners do not pay NI.
He's full of shit.0 -
This is why I've put more money on Warren. Primary voters are "paying attention voters" Warren has momentum amongst paying attention voters.rcs1000 said:
Personally, I think Iowa is showing up the weaknesses of both Biden and Sanders. Iowans are seeing more of both than anywhere else, and in both cases, they're polling less well than nationally.Quincel said:I see Elizabeth Warren has shortened today on BF to under 10, presumably because of her strong Iowa poll (though it wasn't that impressive). I think she should be same odds as Buttigieg and close to Harris, so fair play there.
Should Sanders really be the same as Harris/Buttigieg? His fundraising was much stronger in Q1 and his polling is much better. I get he is seen as having less room to grow due to his sky-high recognition already, but I think that's a bit harsh. I also think people keep making useless comparisons to his 2016 numbers which ignore the fact that he was one of two (or three) candidates then - not one of 20.
The polling yesterday which showed that Biden was the choice of people who "hadn't been paying much attention" to the election also should really concern his team. (Both him and Sanders scored highly with people who haven't been paying much attention. Warren scored really highly with those paying a lot of attention, and Buttigieg and Harris were in the middle.) As we get nearer to the primaries, there are far fewer unengaged voters, which is good for Warren (and therefore Trump), and bad for Biden and Sanders.
So where
Biden is also three gaffes away from a disaster.0 -
Meanwhile, in Leaverland, the numbers do not look good:
https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1137954294798397441?s=210 -
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NP hinted over the weekend that we should expect some new revelation today. I hope it is something more interesting than tax cuts for Boris supporters, or that nominations close (and officially open) today. But not so interesting as to destroy my existing bets.0
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A high stakes game, increasing his standing among Tory members (where by all accounts he doesn't need to bother) but increasing the likelihood of counter-reaction against him, should he (try to) become PMScott_P said:0 -
Is Biden stuttering? If you stand back from individual polls and look at the overall picture, it's here:rcs1000 said:.
Yeah, but Biden (after a strong start) is stuttering hard. And Klobuchar is not benefiting because, although she's not a bad candidate, she doesn't have (errr) IT.
IT is a very hard to define thing. Has a candidate ever made the hairs on the back of your neck ever stood on end? (As Obama did with "there are no red states and blue states" speech.) Or has the candidate done something which (for positive reasons) get replayed and replayed and replayed on YouTube?
Klobuchar is competent. And moderate. And electable. But she doesn't excite.
In this race, there are two exciters: Elizabeth Warren, who is super bright and a policy wonk, and who is going down a storm. And Pete Buttigieg, who is incredibly engaging and (yes) makes the hairs stand up on the back of your neck when you hear him talk.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I'm not much impressed by Biden, and my Sanders-backing friends in the States are scornful of him ("boring centrist with a creepy interest in hair"), but he seems to be cruising well ahead of the pack. The Iowa poll is interesting as for the first time it shows Warren and Buttigieg in the leading bunch, but I'd like to see more polls to confirm it. Warren is aggressive without being left-wing, which may be a bad combination for the Democratic selectorate; Buttigieg is neither, though he's pleasant and fluent - the American Rory Stewart.0 -
That’s a paper by a lobbying group stuffed with assumptionsAlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, in Leaverland, the numbers do not look good:
https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1137954294798397441?s=210 -
The new Conservative leader will automatically become prime minister.IanB2 said:
A high stakes game, increasing his standing among Tory members (where by all accounts he doesn't need to bother) but increasing the likelihood of counter-reaction against him, should he (try to) become PMScott_P said:
ETA: how long the new PM remains in office depends on surviving the confidence vote Labour will no doubt shortly call but that will happen after we have a new PM, not before.0 -
If they pick Warren they are mad. So they probably will.Alistair said:
This is why I've put more money on Warren. Primary voters are "paying attention voters" Warren has momentum amongst paying attention voters.rcs1000 said:
Personally, I think Iowa is showing up the weaknesses of both Biden and Sanders. Iowans are seeing more of both than anywhere else, and in both cases, they're polling less well than nationally.Quincel said:I see Elizabeth Warren has shortened today on BF to under 10, presumably because of her strong Iowa poll (though it wasn't that impressive). I think she should be same odds as Buttigieg and close to Harris, so fair play there.
Should Sanders really be the same as Harris/Buttigieg? His fundraising was much stronger in Q1 and his polling is much better. I get he is seen as having less room to grow due to his sky-high recognition already, but I think that's a bit harsh. I also think people keep making useless comparisons to his 2016 numbers which ignore the fact that he was one of two (or three) candidates then - not one of 20.
The polling yesterday which showed that Biden was the choice of people who "hadn't been paying much attention" to the election also should really concern his team. (Both him and Sanders scored highly with people who haven't been paying much attention. Warren scored really highly with those paying a lot of attention, and Buttigieg and Harris were in the middle.) As we get nearer to the primaries, there are far fewer unengaged voters, which is good for Warren (and therefore Trump), and bad for Biden and Sanders.
So where
Biden is also three gaffes away from a disaster.0 -
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
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Yes - people like that (including me) will be £6000/year better off under that proposal. I'm bemused to learn that helping people like us is Britain's highest priority right now, but I can see its appeal to the selectorate. It's that sort of thing that makes switching PMs without recourse to the general electorate so dubious. (Yes, I know, Gordon Brown...)OldKingCole said:
1. I thought it was the money he'd not going to pay the EUIcarus said:According to Today, Boris will raise threshold for the higher tax rate but increase NI upper limit to pay for it. Over 65 earners do not pay NI.
and
2. Who is going to be voting in the forthcoming Tory leadership elections? Other than higher rate taxpayers who are older than the average.0 -
Rudd sticking a nicely slim knife into Boris on R40
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Buttigieg starts off well in Iowa and New Hampshire, heads backwards rapidly in South CarolinaNickPalmer said:
Is Biden stuttering? If you stand back from individual polls and look at the overall picture, it's here:rcs1000 said:.
Yeah, but Biden (after a strong start) is stuttering hard. And Klobuchar is not benefiting because, although she's not a bad candidate, she doesn't have (errr) IT.
IT is a very hard to define thing. Has a candidate ever made the hairs on the back of your neck ever stood on end? (As Obama did with "there are no red states and blue states" speech.) Or has the candidate done something which (for positive reasons) get replayed and replayed and replayed on YouTube?
Klobuchar is competent. And moderate. And electable. But she doesn't excite.
In this race, there are two exciters: Elizabeth Warren, who is super bright and a policy wonk, and who is going down a storm. And Pete Buttigieg, who is incredibly engaging and (yes) makes the hairs stand up on the back of your neck when you hear him talk.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I'm not much impressed by Biden, and my Sanders-backing friends in the States are scornful of him ("boring centrist with a creepy interest in hair"), but he seems to be cruising well ahead of the pack. The Iowa poll is interesting as for the first time it shows Warren and Buttigieg in the leading bunch, but I'd like to see more polls to confirm it. Warren is aggressive without being left-wing, which may be a bad combination for the Democratic selectorate; Buttigieg is neither, though he's pleasant and fluent - the American Rory Stewart.0 -
Today sees the main campaign launches - probably wise to see how they go before plunging deep.peter_from_putney said:
Two of of the main reasons the Betfair Exchange is so often quoted as being the best current indicator of odds in a particular market is firstly that it is very active, often far more so than any individual or even grouping of bookmakers, secondly it is often far more responsive to events. Currently its "Next Prime Minister after May" market has more than £1.1 million of matched bets and its odds of 30 (29/1 in old money) is considerably greater than most bookies who in the main offer odds of between 15/1 and 25/1.
It's not difficult to arrive at odds of 30 ... put simply, this equates to Gove having say a 5/1 chance (or 16.7% probability) of making the final 2 candidates to be selected by the Tory faithful, coupled with say a 4/1 chance (or 20% probabiity) of him going on to win the contest outright. Taken together, these two hurdles, applying the odds suggested, work out to be ... yes ... a 29/1 shot.0 -
Of course, and no doubt that is how it will be spun.OldKingCole said:
Quite frankly that endears me to him.Nigelb said:
Apart from the last bit, sounds about right.rcs1000 said:
Yeah, but Biden (after a strong start) is stuttering hard. And Klobuchar is not benefiting because, although she's not a bad candidate, she doesn't have (errr) IT.edmundintokyo said:
That said, now that Biden is in the race KLOBUCHAR is getting big-footed for the whole electable moderate thing, so she really needs Biden to eat his own head to be in with a chance.edmundintokyo said:Absolutely not, I will never abandon Baemy
IT is a very hard to define thing. Has a candidate ever made the hairs on the back of your neck ever stood on end? (As Obama did with "there are no red states and blue states" speech.) Or has the candidate done something which (for positive reasons) get replayed and replayed and replayed on YouTube?
Klobuchar is competent. And moderate. And electable. But she doesn't excite.
In this race, there are two exciters: Elizabeth Warren, who is super bright and a policy wonk, and who is going down a storm. And Pete Buttigieg, who is incredibly engaging and (yes) makes the hairs stand up on the back of your neck when you hear him talk.
Sanders was an exciter. But his time has passed. Biden was never an exciter. He's just a name that people remember from the Obama era.
I suspect Iowa will be a four way tie between Buttigieg, Warren, Biden and Sanders. And that will be a deathknell for the old white guys. They were only up there because people thought they were winners. Once the "winner" mantle is removed, they are nothing.
Who will win between Buttigieg and Warren? I don't know. But those are the guys I'd tip to be fighting it out past Super Tuesday.
Too early to tell who’ll be fighting it out past Super Tuesday, though, and Iowa isn’t exactly the whole game so perhaps best not to over interpret a single state poll.
This sort of thing isn’t going to help Biden in Iowa:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/09/warren-booker-democrats-iowa-2020-1358526
Front-runner Joe Biden, who led the crowded Democratic presidential field in the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, had virtually no presence at the party event. His campaign said the former vice president missed the dinner due to his granddaughter‘s high school graduation...
And for any one event like this, of course it seems like the human choice. But the demands of a presidential race, and the presidency itself, don’t allow it to be treated as a part time job (Trump’s example notwithstanding).
It’s not the choice to skip events like this which will damage his chances, so much as his resulting absence.
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My very extensive patch of wild strawberries is just at the point of harvesting. Lord knows how many you'd need for a punnet, but flavour bombs, each and every one.Charles said:
Actually very nice. We feasted on freshly picked strawberries and newly gathered eggs yesterdayrcs1000 said:
Still in LA. Still in sunny Brentwood. I was at the beach yesterday, and the kids were hanging out by the pool today.viewcode said:
You are Mr Chirpy Cheerful tonight, I think...rcs1000 said:
All this ignores the fact that Parliament is not going to pass any FTA that is acceptable to the US.viewcode said:
* Them voting for Hilary Clinton is a non sequitur in this context.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, of the 9 US states with over 15% Irish American population every one was in the North East and every one bar Pennsylvania voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.SouthamObserver said:
Bless your total ignorance. The Irish American lobby is incredibly powerful across the North East of the US, as well as the Mid-West. And is strong in both parties. There are a number of Congressional districts in red and blue states where you don’t get elected if it opposes you.
https://names.mongabay.com/ancestry/st-Irish.html
The Jewish, Hispanic, African American, Christian evangelical lobbies are now more powerful than the Irish American lobby and the Commerce and gun and evangelical lobbies certainly more influential with Republicans.
Indeed Trump was so unconcerned about the Irish fears over a hard border he told Varadkar last week that he wished him well with his country's border wall after Brexit
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-to-ireland-leo-varadkar-post-brexit-border-wall-will-work-out-well/
* Trump's unconcern is a non sequitur in this context.
* 9 states may have 15% or more Irish Americans, but 30-odd have 10% or more.
I might also point out that the US has not, of late, treated its FTA partners with much in the way of respect. Where are you moving to, btw? Staying in LA or somewhere else?
How's the weather in London?0 -
Turkeys voting for Christmas . Of course the government won’t match current funding levels . Well done sw and Wales , don’t come bleating now . It’s only fair that the areas that chose to leave should enjoy the rewards of that stupid decision !AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, in Leaverland, the numbers do not look good:
https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1137954294798397441?s=210 -
Two years since Matthew Goodwin ate his book live on Sky News.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wugu-2SmHJg1 -
From a betting perspective, fair enough. In terms of political impact, not so much.DecrepitJohnL said:
The new Conservative leader will automatically become prime minister.IanB2 said:
A high stakes game, increasing his standing among Tory members (where by all accounts he doesn't need to bother) but increasing the likelihood of counter-reaction against him, should he (try to) become PMScott_P said:
ETA: how long the new PM remains in office depends on surviving the confidence vote Labour will no doubt shortly call but that will happen after we have a new PM, not before.0 -
Lol @ Amber offering to stand in for Boris if he doesn't attend the debates!0
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There again, it might not. Those who vote in the Democratic primaries are not, in the main, particularly left wing either. One could equally cast her as unabashedly progressive, but not a socialist.NickPalmer said:
Is Biden stuttering? If you stand back from individual polls and look at the overall picture, it's here:rcs1000 said:.
Yeah, but Biden (after a strong start) is stuttering hard. And Klobuchar is not benefiting because, although she's not a bad candidate, she doesn't have (errr) IT.
IT is a very hard to define thing. Has a candidate ever made the hairs on the back of your neck ever stood on end? (As Obama did with "there are no red states and blue states" speech.) Or has the candidate done something which (for positive reasons) get replayed and replayed and replayed on YouTube?
Klobuchar is competent. And moderate. And electable. But she doesn't excite.
In this race, there are two exciters: Elizabeth Warren, who is super bright and a policy wonk, and who is going down a storm. And Pete Buttigieg, who is incredibly engaging and (yes) makes the hairs stand up on the back of your neck when you hear him talk.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I'm not much impressed by Biden, and my Sanders-backing friends in the States are scornful of him ("boring centrist with a creepy interest in hair"), but he seems to be cruising well ahead of the pack. The Iowa poll is interesting as for the first time it shows Warren and Buttigieg in the leading bunch, but I'd like to see more polls to confirm it. Warren is aggressive without being left-wing, which may be a bad combination for the Democratic selectorate...
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I know. The Tories really are living up to their nickname of the "Stupid Party".DecrepitJohnL said:
That is another Tory attack line that will go straight out of the window when Boris enters Downing Street.Cyclefree said:So it's not just the Labour Party which does not know how to handle complaints of sexual harassment - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/oxfam-culture-still-toxic-says-whistleblower-8btwjsrsq.
But I'm not saying it because I'm a Tory (wild horses etc) but because it's so predictable, common and depressing.0 -
Too early to say, I think.Pulpstar said:
Buttigieg starts off well in Iowa and New Hampshire, heads backwards rapidly in South CarolinaNickPalmer said:
Is Biden stuttering? If you stand back from individual polls and look at the overall picture, it's here:rcs1000 said:.
Yeah, but Biden (after a strong start) is stuttering hard. And Klobuchar is not benefiting because, although she's not a bad candidate, she doesn't have (errr) IT.
IT is a very hard to define thing. Has a candidate ever made the hairs on the back of your neck ever stood on end? (As Obama did with "there are no red states and blue states" speech.) Or has the candidate done something which (for positive reasons) get replayed and replayed and replayed on YouTube?
Klobuchar is competent. And moderate. And electable. But she doesn't excite.
In this race, there are two exciters: Elizabeth Warren, who is super bright and a policy wonk, and who is going down a storm. And Pete Buttigieg, who is incredibly engaging and (yes) makes the hairs stand up on the back of your neck when you hear him talk.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I'm not much impressed by Biden, and my Sanders-backing friends in the States are scornful of him ("boring centrist with a creepy interest in hair"), but he seems to be cruising well ahead of the pack. The Iowa poll is interesting as for the first time it shows Warren and Buttigieg in the leading bunch, but I'd like to see more polls to confirm it. Warren is aggressive without being left-wing, which may be a bad combination for the Democratic selectorate; Buttigieg is neither, though he's pleasant and fluent - the American Rory Stewart.
If Biden does really badly in the first two (by no means a foregone conclusion), then there will be a lot of SC voters looking for a new choice (though I’d agree that it’s less likely to be Buttigieg unless he is the actual front runner).
The majority of likely primary voters have yet to settle on a preferred candidate.
0 -
True. As a mild-mannered socialist, an aggressive centrist is exactly wrong for me, but I'm not the target audience.Nigelb said:
There again, it might not. Those who vote in the Democratic primaries are not, in the main, particularly left wing either. One could equally cast her as unabashedly progressive, but not a socialist.
0 -
Amber Rudd sounding very sensible on the radio. As always. NBO PM.0
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Incidentally I think the Dem nom is Biden's to lose. But he sure could lose it.1
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Not a revelation, just the serious campaign launches.We've had the phoney war up to now.DecrepitJohnL said:NP hinted over the weekend that we should expect some new revelation today. I hope it is something more interesting than tax cuts for Boris supporters, or that nominations close (and officially open) today. But not so interesting as to destroy my existing bets.
0 -
Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.0
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This entire leadership campaign is going to be contenders pointing out that none of their opponents plans can make it through Parliament.
It's futile.
In other news...
https://twitter.com/rupertevelyn/status/11379733832647024650 -
https://twitter.com/gerardpatrick/status/1135401443383492608Jonathan said:Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.
0 -
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It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
0 -
Someone should make an Official Brexiteer Bingo Card.Charles said:
That’s a paper by a lobbying group stuffed with assumptionsAlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, in Leaverland, the numbers do not look good:
https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1137954294798397441?s=21
23. That’s a paper by a lobbying group stuffed with assumptions.
56. It would have happened anyway.
72. After No Deal, Ireland will join us outside the Single Market (haven't seen that one for a while)
99. Believe in Britain.0 -
Warren I think is Trump's favoured Democratic candidate, Biden is the one he most fearshoundtang said:
If they pick Warren they are mad. So they probably will.Alistair said:
This is why I've put more money on Warren. Primary voters are "paying attention voters" Warren has momentum amongst paying attention voters.rcs1000 said:
Personally, I think Iowa is showing up the weaknesses of both Biden and Sanders. Iowans are seeing more of both than anywhere else, and in both cases, they're polling less well than nationally.Quincel said:I see Elizabeth Warren has shortened today on BF to under 10, presumably because of her strong Iowa poll (though it wasn't that impressive). I think she should be same odds as Buttigieg and close to Harris, so fair play there.
Should Sanders really be the same as Harris/Buttigieg? His fundraising was much stronger in Q1 and his polling is much better. I get he is seen as having less room to grow due to his sky-high recognition already, but I think that's a bit harsh. I also think people keep making useless comparisons to his 2016 numbers which ignore the fact that he was one of two (or three) candidates then - not one of 20.
The polling yesterday which showed that Biden was the choice of people who "hadn't been paying much attention" to the election also should really concern his team. (Both him and Sanders scored highly with people who haven't been paying much attention. Warren scored really highly with those paying a lot of attention, and Buttigieg and Harris were in the middle.) As we get nearer to the primaries, there are far fewer unengaged voters, which is good for Warren (and therefore Trump), and bad for Biden and Sanders.
So where
Biden is also three gaffes away from a disaster.0 -
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters0 -
Thankfully the face of the leave is about to become PM and will deliver the unicorns he promised everyone...nico67 said:
Turkeys voting for Christmas . Of course the government won’t match current funding levels . Well done sw and Wales , don’t come bleating now . It’s only fair that the areas that chose to leave should enjoy the rewards of that stupid decision !AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, in Leaverland, the numbers do not look good:
https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1137954294798397441?s=210 -
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Johnson spent eight years as London mayor avoiding scrutiny. He almost never did press conferences, only did interviews with compliant journalists and gave speeches that did not involve Q&A.Scott_P said:This entire leadership campaign is going to be contenders pointing out that none of their opponents plans can make it through Parliament.
It's futile.
In other news...
https://twitter.com/rupertevelyn/status/1137973383264702465
0 -
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.0 -
Has it never occurred to you that foreign leaders liking Brexit doesn't necessarily mean it would be good news for us?HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters0 -
It's ironic, that when "Brussels" passes laws that protect the rights of ordinary folk, the Brexiteer cry is "we didn't vote for them".PClipp said:So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
Now, when all those protections are trashed, the Brexiteer cry is "Well, you voted for it...:1 -
-
The tree planted by Donald Trump and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, at the White House as a symbol of their countries’ ties has died, according to multiple media reports in France.0
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The NI upper limit applies only to those earning over £962 per week anyway so raising tgat would hit fewer voters then raising the 40% income tax rate to £80 000 would benefitIcarus said:According to Today, Boris will raise threshold for the higher tax rate but increase NI upper limit to pay for it. Over 65 earners do not pay NI.
0 -
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters
0 -
You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majorityPClipp said:
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.0 -
Australia, Canada and New Zealand are not going to dictate terms to the UK as they are smaller economies but it is in both their end our interests to have a good FTASouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters0 -
So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.SouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters
Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?0 -
Oxfam is a branch of the Labour Party with the same mental mind map. So no surprise.Cyclefree said:So it's not just the Labour Party which does not know how to handle complaints of sexual harassment - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/oxfam-culture-still-toxic-says-whistleblower-8btwjsrsq.
1 -
Gosh, I never thought of that, Mr B2. I bet Mr HY never thought of that either!IanB2 said:
Has it never occurred to you that foreign leaders liking Brexit doesn't necessarily mean it would be good news for us?HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters0 -
Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.HYUFD said:
You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majorityPClipp said:
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.0 -
Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.Philip_Thompson said:
So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.SouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters
Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?
0 -
Good morning PB. Happy Coked-Up Monday.
Has Gove pulled out yet?
0 -
Liam Fox signs a Free Trade Deal with South Korea to be implemented once Brexit is delivered
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-485776670 -
To get trade deals with them we have to offer better trading terms than they have now.HYUFD said:
Australia, Canada and New Zealand are not going to dictate terms to the UK as they are smaller economies but it is in both their end our interests to have a good FTASouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters
0 -
Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignorednichomar said:
Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.HYUFD said:
You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majorityPClipp said:
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.1 -
Personally, I’d just exile anyone with strong views on Britain leaving the EU to the Isle of Man. All of them.nichomar said:
Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.HYUFD said:
You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majorityPClipp said:
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.0 -
Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?SouthamObserver said:
Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.Philip_Thompson said:
So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.SouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters
Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?0 -
No, we have to offer mutually beneficial trading termsSouthamObserver said:
To get trade deals with them we have to offer better trading terms than they have now.HYUFD said:
Australia, Canada and New Zealand are not going to dictate terms to the UK as they are smaller economies but it is in both their end our interests to have a good FTASouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters0 -
It doesn't matter how small their economies are. They are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export market. We need trade deals a lot more than they do.HYUFD said:
Australia, Canada and New Zealand are not going to dictate terms to the UK as they are smaller economies but it is in both their end our interests to have a good FTASouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters
0 -
It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".Scott_P said:
That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.0 -
If only Boris had pulled out more often...GIN1138 said:Good morning PB. Happy Coked-Up Monday.
Has Gove pulled out yet?1 -
Is this the best the former GP and disgraced ex Defence Secretary can do. He has had all this time and this is trumpeted by Brexit apologists as something impressive. We already have a better trade deal with S Korea. It is called via the EUHYUFD said:Liam Fox signs a Free Trade Deal with South Korea to be implemented once Brexit is delivered
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-485776670 -
She has seven hours left to find her three (at least) extra backers.Jonathan said:Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.
Tick tock.0 -
But it's not just a cut for people earning £60-70k, it's also a cut for people earning £300kCasino_Royale said:
It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".Scott_P said:
That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.0 -
I do feel that I’m overtaxed and I am already looking forward to an extra £500 a month net, but most high income earners live - like myself - in London and the SE.
This policy further widens regional inequality.
Let’s remember that the next time there is a provincial PB Tory wankfest about the lack of interest from “Islington elites” in the rest of the country.0 -
I very much doubt it, they would be glad it’s all over and something that was all about a group of politicians either feathering their own nests or improving their careers. Yes a few would be upset but hey ho can’t keep everybody happy.HYUFD said:
Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignorednichomar said:
Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.HYUFD said:
You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majorityPClipp said:
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.0 -
Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.another_richard said:
Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?SouthamObserver said:
Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.Philip_Thompson said:
So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.SouthamObserver said:
Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).Casino_Royale said:
The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.AlastairMeeks said:
Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.Charles said:
I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”nico67 said:Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.
They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .
It’s just a remainer fantasy
Leavers been completely forgotten.
It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters
Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?
0 -
On topic, this story probably is terminal for Michael Gove's leadership hopes.
It's not just the crime or the hypocrisy, though they don't help. It's the unlikelihood, in the same way that David Mellor didn't get away with an affair when Boris Johnson and Stephen Norris did. It's as though Walter the Softy had been exposed for doing crystal meth.0 -
I wouldn't look forward to it too much.Gardenwalker said:I do feel that I’m overtaxed and I am already looking forward to an extra £500 a month net, but most high income earners live - like myself - in London and the SE.
This policy further widens regional inequality.
Let’s remember that the next time there is a provincial PB Tory wankfest about the lack of interest from “Islington elites” in the rest of the country.
Because you wont be getting it.0 -
He has Ratnered himself.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, this story probably is terminal for Michael Gove's leadership hopes.
It's not just the crime or the hypocrisy, though they don't help. It's the unlikelihood, in the same way that David Mellor didn't get away with an affair when Boris Johnson and Stephen Norris did. It's as though Walter the Softy had been exposed for doing crystal meth.0 -
There's probably a better case for tax cuts for people earning £300k than there is for people earning £60-70k. The former are far more likely to be able to take flight than the latter are.Stereotomy said:
But it's not just a cut for people earning £60-70k, it's also a cut for people earning £300kCasino_Royale said:
It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".Scott_P said:
That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
Not that I think that tax cuts for either group should be the priority right now.
0 -
No it does not have to be No Deal you ninny. There is no mandate for no deal. To follow true logic rather than the pre-adolescent type beloved of Leavers, then the logical argument would say a further referendum with the full fat maximum self harm option on the ballot paper.HYUFD said:
You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majorityPClipp said:
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
It is quite possible that there are enough people dumb enough to vote for it and destroy their own economy, but they do need to be consulted first. As a reminder, the electorate, in their stupidity, voted, by small margin to leave, and they were clearly told that it would be with a deal. That was the effective leave manifesto.0 -
Good luck with that. The vast majority of people living in London and the SE who do not earn close to £60,000 a year may not feel a huge surge of sympathy. They may feel that giving Boris Johnson a nice big tax cut should not be the priority right now.Casino_Royale said:
It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".Scott_P said:
That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
0 -
That's probably true, actually.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, this story probably is terminal for Michael Gove's leadership hopes.
It's not just the crime or the hypocrisy, though they don't help. It's the unlikelihood, in the same way that David Mellor didn't get away with an affair when Boris Johnson and Stephen Norris did. It's as though Walter the Softy had been exposed for doing crystal meth.0 -
And I think it would be £500/monthanother_richard said:
I wouldn't look forward to it too much.Gardenwalker said:I do feel that I’m overtaxed and I am already looking forward to an extra £500 a month net, but most high income earners live - like myself - in London and the SE.
This policy further widens regional inequality.
Let’s remember that the next time there is a provincial PB Tory wankfest about the lack of interest from “Islington elites” in the rest of the country.
Because you wont be getting it.0 -
OK, we'll piss off the Remainers then.nichomar said:
I very much doubt it, they would be glad it’s all over and something that was all about a group of politicians either feathering their own nests or improving their careers. Yes a few would be upset but hey ho can’t keep everybody happy.HYUFD said:
Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignorednichomar said:
Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.HYUFD said:
You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majorityPClipp said:
So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?HYUFD said:
It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to bePClipp said:
If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.HYUFD said:I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit
Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
Hey ho, as I'm sure you'll learn to say.....0 -
Depends how long the campaign lasts I guess - the story is now moving onto Boris remaining in hiding.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, this story probably is terminal for Michael Gove's leadership hopes.
It's not just the crime or the hypocrisy, though they don't help. It's the unlikelihood, in the same way that David Mellor didn't get away with an affair when Boris Johnson and Stephen Norris did. It's as though Walter the Softy had been exposed for doing crystal meth.
He can't even Brexit his own flat.0
