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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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However I would not count Gove out, as of today he still has 1 more MP backing him than Hunt and once McVey and Leadsom go out I would expect more of their support to go to him than Hunt and he might well pick up a few from Hancock, Stewart and Gyimah too. If he then knocks out Raab and Javid I suspect more of the former's MPs would back him over Hunt and he would at least split the difference with Hunt with The Saj's supporters and have a chance of overtaking Hunt to get to the runoff with Boris
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
His campaign has been a model of discretion and modesty. It must have been tricky for him. But he is doing it.
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
As I said, the market will give no fucks about it, the sovereign debt default aspect is complete rubbish. The effect is limited to our future relationship with the EU, but that also cuts both ways. If the EU is unwilling to take the necessary steps to avoid the scenario from playing out then they will be as culpable as the government. Again, there's no black and white scenario here, of all people I'd expect you to understand that.
It is pretty impressive.
Obviously it collapses the moment he takes office but its betting him the job.
Boris also has charisma, May and Brown did not and the biggest determinant of who wins an election these days tends to be which party has the more charismatic leader
Boris is being tested in a campaign, and he is, so far, campaigning rather cleverly. Hence his position as faraway front runner.
Does this augur well, if he becomes PM? Let us hope so.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
I’m surprised that anyone is surprised, or cares.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Williams,_Baroness_Williams_of_Trafford
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.
Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.
It’s quite delusional for some Leavers to think you can walk out , fail to pay your bills and the EU will say great let’s do a trade deal now .
In fact the way Bozos going he’ll end up the shortest PM in history .
That will be taken into account in the price which Britain will be charged for everything it wants, from the EU or anyone else.
https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1137833492056825856?s=21
I think you need to separate market reality from media perception of the market.
We've not moved on from May yet, all of them are focused on getting through the next five minutes and that's about it.
A dispute with Brussels won't harm us (or them in Europe), nor will it hurt us (or them). It will be seen as a minor but niggling dispute (which it is, in the global scheme). It will be two divorcees settling bills. Everyone will look away. In boredom.
QTWTAIN
I know it’s all funny money anyway but it doesn’t really add up.