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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    But it's not just a cut for people earning £60-70k, it's also a cut for people earning £300k
    Same goes for any tax cut in the basic rate as well.

    It's a good thing. It will stimulate growth.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    So you don't know when the UK last had a trade surplus with the EU.

    Let me point out that trade is a two way thing and the effect of imports need to be considered along with exports.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    By allowing us to liberate trade with the rest of the world which is a bigger and growing share of both our trade and the world economy.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    But it's not just a cut for people earning £60-70k, it's also a cut for people earning £300k
    Same goes for any tax cut in the basic rate as well.

    It's a good thing. It will stimulate growth.
    Yeah, which is why I think you also shouldn't cut the basic rate without a corresponding increase to a higher rate to offset it for high earners.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    But it's not just a cut for people earning £60-70k, it's also a cut for people earning £300k
    There's probably a better case for tax cuts for people earning £300k than there is for people earning £60-70k. The former are far more likely to be able to take flight than the latter are.

    Not that I think that tax cuts for either group should be the priority right now.

    It's an absolute gift for the Labour party. A totally unnecessary one at that. So it probably does reveal Johnson's genuine priorities.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit

    If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.
    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, the

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    So you don't know when the UK last had a trade surplus with the EU.

    Let me point out that trade is a two way thing and the effect of imports need to be considered along with exports.
    Do we need @rcs1000 to remind us that a trade surplus is positively correlated with the savings rate? It’s down to our love of living off credit.

    OTOH, NZ hasn’t had a current account surplus since the 80s or something. Nobody seems to care.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    So you don't know when the UK last had a trade surplus with the EU.

    Let me point out that trade is a two way thing and the effect of imports need to be considered along with exports.

    And you cannot explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market helps the UK.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    nichomar said:

    I do feel that I’m overtaxed and I am already looking forward to an extra £500 a month net, but most high income earners live - like myself - in London and the SE.

    This policy further widens regional inequality.

    Let’s remember that the next time there is a provincial PB Tory wankfest about the lack of interest from “Islington elites” in the rest of the country.

    I wouldn't look forward to it too much.

    Because you wont be getting it.
    And I think it would be £500/month
    Only £250 for people in work earning £80k though. The NI threshold increase wipes out half of the saving.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand are not going to dictate terms to the UK as they are smaller economies but it is in both their end our interests to have a good FTA

    To get trade deals with them we have to offer better trading terms than they have now.

    Apparently not according to South Korea. The terms are said to be identical to the agreement with the EU.

    As always SO, you get too carried away with your hatred of brexit that you start talking and running down your own country. Other nations want to trade with the UK, it's the fifth largest economy in the world.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    But it's not just a cut for people earning £60-70k, it's also a cut for people earning £300k
    Same goes for any tax cut in the basic rate as well.

    It's a good thing. It will stimulate growth.
    Yeah, who needs decent public services anyway? Let them eat cake, we’ve got cocaine.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    By allowing us to liberate trade with the rest of the world which is a bigger and growing share of both our trade and the world economy.
    Please show your working.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, he will do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    By allowing us to liberate trade with the rest of the world which is a bigger and growing share of both our trade and the world economy.

    How much "liberation" needs to occur to mitigate the harm caused by making it harder and more expensive to trade with by far our biggest export market?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    On topic, this story probably is terminal for Michael Gove's leadership hopes.

    It's not just the crime or the hypocrisy, though they don't help. It's the unlikelihood, in the same way that David Mellor didn't get away with an affair when Boris Johnson and Stephen Norris did. It's as though Walter the Softy had been exposed for doing crystal meth.

    He has Ratnered himself.
    I think the "I was lucky not to be jailed" line was the tipping point.

    Even SeanT has never said anything that boastful about his drug taking.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit

    If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.
    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
    It's a representative democracy, we choose the MP, not the PM.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    The Boris Brexit Bonus just gets bigger! £350 million a week PLUS £39 billion lump sum

    Showing soon on a bus near you!

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.

    Good luck with that. The vast majority of people living in London and the SE who do not earn close to £60,000 a year may not feel a huge surge of sympathy. They may feel that giving Boris Johnson a nice big tax cut should not be the priority right now.
    mmm, yes but the political calculation is that these people don't vote Tory. He would actually be better off radically reducing the higher rate, as paradoxically I suspect some people quite like being "a higher rate tax payer" as it makes them feel a little superior.
    Tax cuts that we can't afford, and will be even less able to afford after the car crash known as Brexit, will be just one more piece of evidence in the Liar-aka-Boris Johnson narrative.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Roger said:

    The Boris Brexit Bonus just gets bigger! £350 million a week PLUS £39 billion lump sum

    Showing soon on a bus near you!

    Is Boris a Nigerian Prince?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit

    If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.
    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
    It's a representative democracy, we choose the MP, not the PM.
    Can you not see how outrageous it is that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is? Seriously?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Essentially a bunch of well off mostly middle aged and pensioners of the Tory Membership will be deciding the future PM.

    They can gamble with the futures of others as they have little to lose . Their attitude is fuck everyone else as long as they get to play Empire 2.0 .

    I have never ever seen or heard a leaver talk about “Empire 2.0”

    It’s just a remainer fantasy
    Empire 2.0 has a specific meaning. It was the idea of prioritising the Commonwealth post-Brexit. It fell into disfavour once Leavers eventually realised that no one in the Commonwealth had the slightest interest in it.

    Leavers also abandoned Canzuk for the same reason, have gone cold on the idea of a NAFTA-type arrangement since they realised that the USA would like to asset strip the NHS and have lurking doubts about whether Britain’s coastline would get them into the TPP. So right now all they have is a visceral emotional hatred of the EU, a surly insularity and reheated folk memories of taking on Nazi Germany. The idea of a positive vision of Brexit has now been completely forgotten.
    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.
    Indeed, he will do a FTA with the UK).

    The Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand are not going to dictate terms to the UK as they are smaller economies but it is in both their end our interests to have a good FTA

    To get trade deals with them we have to offer better trading terms than they have now.

    Apparently not according to South Korea. The terms are said to be identical to the agreement with the EU.

    As always SO, you get too carried away with your hatred of brexit that you start talking and running down your own country. Other nations want to trade with the UK, it's the fifth largest economy in the world.

    Of course they want to trade with us. And we have got exactly the same deal with South Korea as we had as an EU member state. So, no improvement - but now it will be harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market. Can you explain how that benefits the UK?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:


    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.

    Indeed, the victory of Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten in Australia and Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US put two pro Brexit leaders in power in the Canzuk nations. If Scheer beats Trudeau in Canada in the Autumn that would be 3 out of 4 Canzuk leaders pro Brexit (though even Trudeau has said he will do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    So you don't know when the UK last had a trade surplus with the EU.

    Let me point out that trade is a two way thing and the effect of imports need to be considered along with exports.
    Now let me put forward an alternative view to the 'the more trade deals the better line'.

    In a country which lives beyond its means as the UK does and which also has stringent environmental, health and safety and other regulations then more trade deals merely leads to bigger trade deficits and more wealth flowing out of the country.

    Perhaps a bit less trade might be better for us.

    Or do PBers think the UK can continually run a £100bn balance of payments deficit ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Jonathan said:

    Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.

    She has seven hours left to find her three (at least) extra backers.

    Tick tock.
    I think she has got eleven new backers in her back pocket to be announced at 4:30pm today. This will get her through the first two ballots and give her momentum. Her backer on Betfair knows of this plan. IMHO.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Barnesian said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit

    If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.
    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
    It's a representative democracy, we choose the MP, not the PM.
    Can you not see how outrageous it is that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is? Seriously?
    It isn’t. You vote for an MP and parly does the rest.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I see that post-Brexit, attention is going to turn to “stringent environmental, health and safety and other regulations”...

    It’s like Germany doesn’t exist, isn’t it?
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    Och, it's a tough life, eh?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Of course they want to trade with us. And we have got exactly the same deal with South Korea as we had as an EU member state. So, no improvement - but now it will be harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market. Can you explain how that benefits the UK?

    That wasn't the point you made, though. You said that we'd get worse terms now that we're leaving. We haven't, they are the same.

    You're also falling into the trap of thinking that trade deals are fixed in time. I agree that some are, especially ones with bureaucratic blocs like the EU, but bilateral trade treaties are very moveable beasts. If new industries pop up, or the government approaches SK with some new area they want to discuss you can bet that both sides will enter into talks. Doing that within the EU is basically impossible as you need 27 other people to agree changes before even approaching the other party.

    RoW trade is definitely one area where this country excels and will continue to do so in our out of the EU. I'd wager that out of the EU and out of th customs union the UK will start to customise existing trade deals and push for more services liberalisation and mutual recognition of services bodies/standards, something the EU has always been unwilling to do internally let alone externally.

    As for EU trade, honestly, no one can say what it's going to look like, only that it will be different.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    HYUFD said:



    The Canadian Conservatives have passed a policy that amounts to Canzuk if they win the next federal election.

    It's fair to say that India doesn't see the UK in quite the same way as the UK sees India.

    Indeed, do a FTA with the UK).

    The only leader less supportive of Brexit is Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand but even she has a pro Brexit coalition partner in Winston Peters

    Why wouldn't any foreign leader be pro-Brexit? It means you get to dictate trade deals to a desperate UK. After you've done one with the EU, of course.

    So countries like Canada and Australia, both a fraction of our size, get to dictate trade to us.

    Seems like independent countries can have good trade policies, why can't we?

    Because other independent countries are not in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with their biggest export markets.

    Perhaps you could remind us when the UK last had a trade surplus with its biggest export market ?

    Perhaps you could explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market is going to benefit the UK.

    So you don't know when the UK last had a trade surplus with the EU.

    Let me point out that trade is a two way thing and the effect of imports need to be considered along with exports.

    And you cannot explain how making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market helps the UK.

    The issue is do we gain or lose from a reduction in trade.

    Exporters might lose out but others might gain from import substitution.

    The issue is a lot more complication than assuming freer trade is always better.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.

    She has seven hours left to find her three (at least) extra backers.

    Tick tock.
    I think she has got eleven new backers in her back pocket to be announced at 4:30pm today. This will get her through the first two ballots and give her momentum. Her backer on Betfair knows of this plan. IMHO.
    Leadsom ? Really..

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit

    If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.
    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
    So are you outraged that MPs will be choosing or party members ?

    And why weren't you similarly outraged in 2016 ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    MaxPB said:

    Of course they want to trade with us. And we have got exactly the same deal with South Korea as we had as an EU member state. So, no improvement - but now it will be harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market. Can you explain how that benefits the UK?

    That wasn't the point you made, though. You said that we'd get worse terms now that we're leaving. We haven't, they are the same.

    You're also falling into the trap of thinking that trade deals are fixed in time. I agree that some are, especially ones with bureaucratic blocs like the EU, but bilateral trade treaties are very moveable beasts. If new industries pop up, or the government approaches SK with some new area they want to discuss you can bet that both sides will enter into talks. Doing that within the EU is basically impossible as you need 27 other people to agree changes before even approaching the other party.

    RoW trade is definitely one area where this country excels and will continue to do so in our out of the EU. I'd wager that out of the EU and out of th customs union the UK will start to customise existing trade deals and push for more services liberalisation and mutual recognition of services bodies/standards, something the EU has always been unwilling to do internally let alone externally.

    As for EU trade, honestly, no one can say what it's going to look like, only that it will be different.

    We already had a trade deal with South Korea. So the Koreans and the UK have the status quo, which is exactly my point. Except overall we are down because we are in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    I see that post-Brexit, attention is going to turn to “stringent environmental, health and safety and other regulations”...

    It’s like Germany doesn’t exist, isn’t it?

    You mean the Germany at the centre of the vehicle emissions scandal ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    MaxPB said:

    Of course they want to trade with us. And we have got exactly the same deal with South Korea as we had as an EU member state. So, no improvement - but now it will be harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market. Can you explain how that benefits the UK?

    That wasn't the point you made, though. You said that we'd get worse terms now that we're leaving. We haven't, they are the same.

    You're also falling into the trap of thinking that trade deals are fixed in time. I agree that some are, especially ones with bureaucratic blocs like the EU, but bilateral trade treaties are very moveable beasts. If new industries pop up, or the government approaches SK with some new area they want to discuss you can bet that both sides will enter into talks. Doing that within the EU is basically impossible as you need 27 other people to agree changes before even approaching the other party.

    RoW trade is definitely one area where this country excels and will continue to do so in our out of the EU. I'd wager that out of the EU and out of th customs union the UK will start to customise existing trade deals and push for more services liberalisation and mutual recognition of services bodies/standards, something the EU has always been unwilling to do internally let alone externally.

    As for EU trade, honestly, no one can say what it's going to look like, only that it will be different.

    We already had a trade deal with South Korea. So the Koreans and the UK have the status quo, which is exactly my point. Except overall we are down because we are in the process of making it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest export market.

    Have you had a look as to when the UK last had a trade surplus with the EU ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    I see that post-Brexit, attention is going to turn to “stringent environmental, health and safety and other regulations”...

    It’s like Germany doesn’t exist, isn’t it?

    You mean the Germany at the centre of the vehicle emissions scandal ?
    Yes. Are you saying that Germany’s stubborn surplus can be attributed to mass fraud?

    If so it would explain your “worldview”.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    TGOHF said:

    Barnesian said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit

    If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.
    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
    It's a representative democracy, we choose the MP, not the PM.
    Can you not see how outrageous it is that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is? Seriously?
    It isn’t. You vote for an MP and party does the rest.
    I know what the rules of the game are. If you can't see how outrageous it is that a small unrepresentative unelected group of people can chose our next PM and therefore the future of this country, I think you have disqualified yourself from contributing usefully on matters of democracy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.

    She has seven hours left to find her three (at least) extra backers.

    Tick tock.
    I think she has got eleven new backers in her back pocket to be announced at 4:30pm today. This will get her through the first two ballots and give her momentum. Her backer on Betfair knows of this plan. IMHO.
    She might. Even though that's somewhat unlikely and a rather high risk strategy. Who would these ultra silent co-conspirators be? Why hasn't a single journalist heard about them? to Why Why would she only announce a single one on Friday, and then none thereafter? What's to be gained by taking it to the wire?

    It's more likely that the emperor has no clothes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    Och, it's a tough life, eh?
    The language of destructive and envious socialists.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    Och, it's a tough life, eh?
    The language of destructive and envious socialists.
    Or someone who has not lived in London these past 20 years...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid there is also no getting around the fact that if a Deal does not prove possible and further extension is denied by the EU in October then polling shows that voters may prefer No Deal to revoke or remain if that is the only way to achieve Brexit

    If the Conservative Government goes for "No Deal", it will not be long before the voters realise that "No Deal" means total surrender to absolutely everybody. No Deal is just a Con Trick.
    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
    Good riddance.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    I see that post-Brexit, attention is going to turn to “stringent environmental, health and safety and other regulations”...

    It’s like Germany doesn’t exist, isn’t it?

    You mean the Germany at the centre of the vehicle emissions scandal ?
    Yes. Are you saying that Germany’s stubborn surplus can be attributed to mass fraud?

    If so it would explain your “worldview”.
    Germany is a country which prefers to live within its means so freer trade leads to bigger trade surpluses.

    The UK is a country which is addicted to living beyond its means so freer trade leads to bigger trade deficits.

    The fundamental difference to how Germany and the UK view wealth creation and wealth consumption means that the same trade policies might not be appropriate for both countries.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    Och, it's a tough life, eh?
    The language of destructive and envious socialists.
    Even in London and the South East only a small minority will be paid £80k.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    Och, it's a tough life, eh?
    The language of destructive and envious socialists.
    Even in London and the South East only a small minority will be paid £80k.
    Yes but a very large number will earn in between £50k and £80k.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    I see that post-Brexit, attention is going to turn to “stringent environmental, health and safety and other regulations”...

    It’s like Germany doesn’t exist, isn’t it?

    You mean the Germany at the centre of the vehicle emissions scandal ?
    Yes. Are you saying that Germany’s stubborn surplus can be attributed to mass fraud?

    If so it would explain your “worldview”.
    Germany is a country which prefers to live within its means so freer trade leads to bigger trade surpluses.

    The UK is a country which is addicted to living beyond its means so freer trade leads to bigger trade deficits.

    The fundamental difference to how Germany and the UK view wealth creation and wealth consumption means that the same trade policies might not be appropriate for both countries.
    There’s no iron law that says Britain needs to rely on “living beyond its means”, and I’m interested in what trade policies are indeed thought appropriate in such circumstances.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is revoke and remain which is total surrender to Brussels, if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then No Deal ultimately it will have to be
    So you are prepared to surrender to everybody, accept all their demands and just lie down and take whatever they choose to do to you, Mr HY?

    Brussels does at least protect the interests of ordinary people.
    You are quite clearly unwilling to implement the Leave vote, as I said if the Commons refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement then it has to be No Deal until either they do or it can be renegotiated in a way the Commons will pass, at the moment the only way that will be is with the backstop amended or removed hence why only the Brady amendment has got a Commons majority
    Revoke and remain the only sane way forward then we can get on with dealing with real problems.
    Revoke and Remain is only the same way forward for a minority of diehard Remainer metropolitan, the rest of the country would be furious their Leave vote has been ignored
    I am furious that those that keep banging on about democracy can think it is OK that a small number of people who have no democratic mandate can decide who the PM of this country is. I have been a Conservative member for over 20 years and I think it is a complete outrage. I will be spoiling my ballot paper, and resigning my membership shortly after.
    So are you outraged that MPs will be choosing or party members ?

    And why weren't you similarly outraged in 2016 ?
    I accept the principle that party members choose their leader, but not that they choose the PM.

    An opposition leader, chosen by party members (eg Corbyn) still needs to face a general election and votes by the public before they can become PM.

    A change of PM without a general election, which happens fairly frequently, should be on the votes of that party's MPs, who have been elected by the public and not by party members. That gives it some legitimacy.

    Have party members ever before chosen a PM? I think this is a first.

    The only consolation is that if MPs don't accept the members' choice they will VONC it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: well.. That was questionable.

    Importantly, my bet came off.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    I see that post-Brexit, attention is going to turn to “stringent environmental, health and safety and other regulations”...

    It’s like Germany doesn’t exist, isn’t it?

    You mean the Germany at the centre of the vehicle emissions scandal ?
    Yes. Are you saying that Germany’s stubborn surplus can be attributed to mass fraud?

    If so it would explain your “worldview”.
    Germany is a country which prefers to live within its means so freer trade leads to bigger trade surpluses.

    The UK is a country which is addicted to living beyond its means so freer trade leads to bigger trade deficits.

    The fundamental difference to how Germany and the UK view wealth creation and wealth consumption means that the same trade policies might not be appropriate for both countries.
    There’s no iron law that says Britain needs to rely on “living beyond its means”, and I’m interested in what trade policies are indeed thought appropriate in such circumstances.
    There's no iron law but that's what's been happening for decades and I see no intention from our politicians not to continually make promises of tax cuts and spending increases.

    As to trade policies restricting imports which do not have the same environmental and other standards as our own might be beneficial.

    That after all is the same as restricting chlorinated chicken from the USA which PB Remainers are so insistent on.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.

    She has seven hours left to find her three (at least) extra backers.

    Tick tock.
    I think she has got eleven new backers in her back pocket to be announced at 4:30pm today. This will get her through the first two ballots and give her momentum. Her backer on Betfair knows of this plan. IMHO.
    She might. Even though that's somewhat unlikely and a rather high risk strategy. Who would these ultra silent co-conspirators be? Why hasn't a single journalist heard about them? to Why Why would she only announce a single one on Friday, and then none thereafter? What's to be gained by taking it to the wire?

    It's more likely that the emperor has no clothes.
    Taking it to the wire gives her momentum and publicity. But you might be right that the emperor has no clothes.

    I can't assess the probabilities so I'm keeping out of the Leadsom market. I certainly don't see laying Leadsom as free money. There could be some burnt fingers. But on the other hand it does seem unlikely that she will overtake Johnson unless he explodes and she gets a lot of transfers.

    I think she will have her eight backers by 5pm tonight and her price will tighten.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited June 2019

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    They could always get on their bikes to areas with cheaper housing and less/cheaper commuting.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    Och, it's a tough life, eh?
    The language of destructive and envious socialists.
    Even in London and the South East only a small minority will be paid £80k.
    Yes but a very large number will earn in between £50k and £80k.
    A more politically astute way of benefiting that group would be to simultaneously increase taxes on people much richer than that.

    So increasing the top rate from 45% back to 50% or extra taxes on Mayfair mansions.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    IanB2 said:

    The tree planted by Donald Trump and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, at the White House as a symbol of their countries’ ties has died, according to multiple media reports in France.

    Did Donald pay prostitutes to pee on it once the cordiale wore off the entente?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.

    Good luck with that. The vast majority of people living in London and the SE who do not earn close to £60,000 a year may not feel a huge surge of sympathy. They may feel that giving Boris Johnson a nice big tax cut should not be the priority right now.
    When would it be a "priority"?

    Never is the answer. This is a cop out argument from those who just don't like or agree with tax cuts.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leadsom got stuck on a new “managed exit”. No answer to how the EU will react to this unicorn.

    She has seven hours left to find her three (at least) extra backers.

    Tick tock.
    I think she has got eleven new backers in her back pocket to be announced at 4:30pm today. This will get her through the first two ballots and give her momentum. Her backer on Betfair knows of this plan. IMHO.
    She might. Even though that's somewhat unlikely and a rather high risk strategy. Who would these ultra silent co-conspirators be? Why hasn't a single journalist heard about them? to Why Why would she only announce a single one on Friday, and then none thereafter? What's to be gained by taking it to the wire?

    It's more likely that the emperor has no clothes.
    Taking it to the wire gives her momentum and publicity. But you might be right that the emperor has no clothes.

    I can't assess the probabilities so I'm keeping out of the Leadsom market. I certainly don't see laying Leadsom as free money. There could be some burnt fingers. But on the other hand it does seem unlikely that she will overtake Johnson unless he explodes and she gets a lot of transfers.

    I think she will have her eight backers by 5pm tonight and her price will tighten.
    Well, it's at 8/1 now so has already tightened. I struggle to see how it could tighten much further.

    But we'll soon see.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    Och, it's a tough life, eh?
    The language of destructive and envious socialists.
    Even in London and the South East only a small minority will be paid £80k.
    But many could aspire to such a salary over the course of their careers.

    The intent of the 40p band was that it'd only be paid by a small minority.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    They could always get on their bikes to areas with cheaper housing and less/cheaper commuting.
    That already happens. Who can afford to live in town now?

    Most people have a 1.5-2 hour commute, each way, every day.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    They could always get on their bikes to areas with cheaper housing and less/cheaper commuting.
    That already happens. Who can afford to live in town now?

    Most people have a 1.5-2 hour commute, each way, every day.
    Let me guess - that’s not the Tories’ fault for selling off London’s council housing, right?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    Charles said:

    Meanwhile, in Leaverland, the numbers do not look good:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1137954294798397441?s=21

    That’s a paper by a lobbying group stuffed with assumptions
    Someone should make an Official Brexiteer Bingo Card.

    23. That’s a paper by a lobbying group stuffed with assumptions.

    56. It would have happened anyway.

    72. After No Deal, Ireland will join us outside the Single Market (haven't seen that one for a while)

    99. Believe in Britain.
    It states that the U.K. government uses different criteria to the EU to allocate resources.

    It then states that if you assume that post Brexit spending follows current U.K. models then areas that do well out of the current EU will suffer

    And it is written by Communities in Charge “a coalition of community leaders and charities”

    So which bit of my statement do you actually disagree with?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Streeter said:

    Scott_P said:
    It does piss me off when raising the 40p threshold to £80k is described as "tax cuts for the better off".

    That's exactly where the 40p threshold would be had it been raised with inflation since it was introduced, rather than continually eroded through fiscal drag, and £60-70k doesn't go far in London and the South East for professionals who are working their arses off to pay commuting fees and heavy mortgages.
    They could always get on their bikes to areas with cheaper housing and less/cheaper commuting.
    That already happens. Who can afford to live in town now?

    Most people have a 1.5-2 hour commute, each way, every day.
    Let me guess - that’s not the Tories’ fault for selling off London’s council housing, right?
    Correct.
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