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HYUFD said:

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1136319662214529025

Mordaunt is in trouble on item 3.

HY is in trouble on item 2.

He is talking rubbish on 2

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20

Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.

Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit

Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.

Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20

You say those figures were for a Boris-Johnson-led Conservative party _campaigning_ _on_ _a_ _No_ _Deal_ _platform_?

I find that very difficult to believe.

Almost all the Boris gains in that poll come from the Brexit Party who are the strongest No Deal supporters

So what? If the Tories move to No Deal, they will lose voters who don't support No Deal, relative to the findings of that poll that didn't specify a policy.

Can they offset that by squeezing the Brexit party further down than the 13% the poll indicates? I doubt it, unless - as I said - Farage stands aside and endorses the Tories.

If the Tories suffer a net loss relative to those poll figures, and go down to say the mid-20s, I very much doubt they can win a general election.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.

It must just be the weather.

It seems to me that Brexit can hardly have come at a worse time for car manufacturers. They are just beginning a massive switch to electric vehicle production, which will surely require huge investment in new plant and the development of new supplier networks. The uncertainty posed by Brexit is bound to be a factor in dissuading such investment in the UK. So it is not so much the closure of old plants that we need to worry about, rather the potential failure to upgrade plants or open new plants. Brexit is an existential threat to the British car industry.

Going electric is an existential threat to the EU car industry. Where are the lithium deposits? The current thinking in the car industry is that the EV production will be next door to the battery production because shipping very heavy batteries around the world is expensive. Especially if the EV is then exported again.

This is why I am surprised still that the EU did not go hydrogen.

Pulpstar said:

A hard Brexit could probably get back plenty of BXP voters (& Some would return to Labour too) but give up a big chunk to the Lib Dems. On a FPTP basis it could lead to useless votes being piled up in the Northeast for instance whilst Labour take a slew of southern towns like Milton Keynes.

Labour? The same Labour who trail or tie the LDs whoever succeeds May with Yougov? The same Labour who are also likely to lose Peterborough to the Brexit Party tomorrow?

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

Brexit will be a live political issue for the foreseeable future, all the more so if we cross the Article 50 threshold and get into real negotiations on the future relationship.

As for voters coming back over "pocket book concerns", you are assuming a Labour/Tory two-horse race.

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

That’s a bit rich from the man who is asserting that the Conservatives can be the wrong side of the line of the most polarising electoral topic of our lifetimes for a cohort of voters and can still hope to win their votes back. Brexit allegiance is far stronger than party allegiance, as the Conservatives are currently discovering.

I stated it as opinion not fact

My belief is that Brexit happens, life goes on, and over time the vast majority of people focus on stuff that matters in the future not something that happened in the past.

But that’s an opinion not a fact.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

That’s a bit rich from the man who is asserting that the Conservatives can be the wrong side of the line of the most polarising electoral topic of our lifetimes for a cohort of voters and can still hope to win their votes back. Brexit allegiance is far stronger than party allegiance, as the Conservatives are currently discovering.

I stated it as opinion not fact

My belief is that Brexit happens, life goes on, and over time the vast majority of people focus on stuff that matters in the future not something that happened in the past.

But that’s an opinion not a fact.

When do you believe Brexit will move into the past?

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Strong capable leadership attracts voters from everywhere just as voters desert a sinking party for any other ship.

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

That's very difficult to see at this point. We need to leave with an agreement and get back to being a responsible party of government, not this disorganised rabble we've become. If we leave without an agreement then the disorganised rabble becomes a permanent feature of the party.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

St. Alban's is curious. It's one of the three Hertfordshire seats (SW Herts. and Watford being the other two) where the Conservatives really punch above their weight at Parliamentary level, and well below it at local level.

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

Brexit will be a live political issue for the foreseeable future, all the more so if we cross the Article 50 threshold and get into real negotiations on the future relationship.

As for voters coming back over "pocket book concerns", you are assuming a Labour/Tory two-horse race.

I think once we leave TBP is done. Farage claims victory and heads off into the sunset. If we don’t leave then there is a good chance the Tories are done for.

Ignoring the SNP that makes it a 2/3 horse race - I can see the LibDems continuing to be energised but don’t think they automatically keep former Tories who don’t appreciate their economic policies

But Farage has based half his recent campaign on the Brexit deal (for which read any deal that involves compromise with the EU) being a betrayal. If we leave, he will just be getting started on destroying the Tory party.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

7th Tory target for the Lib Dems, 5.36% swing needed. 29-22 would be a *checks* 14.45% swing so that gets the Lib Dems down to Chippenham.

Has Trumpton done one yet?

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.

It must just be the weather.

Tell us how it is Brexit then.

Show all workings.

When you’re choosing where to retain business, why on earth would you keep it in a place where the current party of government is entertaining choosing a man whose motto is Fuck Business?

Because the UK is a good place to live (certainly in the top ten worldwide) which matters to the international rich.

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

That’s a bit rich from the man who is asserting that the Conservatives can be the wrong side of the line of the most polarising electoral topic of our lifetimes for a cohort of voters and can still hope to win their votes back. Brexit allegiance is far stronger than party allegiance, as the Conservatives are currently discovering.

I stated it as opinion not fact

My belief is that Brexit happens, life goes on, and over time the vast majority of people focus on stuff that matters in the future not something that happened in the past.

But that’s an opinion not a fact.

My view is that those people who think Brexit will be a success will decide Brexit was a success and that those people who thought Brexit would be a disaster will think Brexit is a disaster. And it will fix votes for or against the Leave parties for a generation accordingly.

Good for you Mr Meeks.

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

But Farage has based half his recent campaign on the Brexit deal (for which read any deal that involves compromise with the EU) being a betrayal. If we leave, he will just be getting started on destroying the Tory party.

Not everyone supporting Farage now will regard a compromise as a betrayal, they may just want Brexit to happen. So there's no guarantee he would be able to, if they delivered Brexit. That said, Charles is probably underestimating how many would think it was betrayal.

The problem is that even if they just want to get Brexit over and done with, once we actually leave, the negotiations will offer up a constant stream of new humiliations that can either be blamed on the incumbent government or on the deal that allegedly put us in a weak position. The long-term potential for such voters to become more radicalised gets stronger, not weaker.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

I reckon this website is, to a degree, based on hunches, opinions, and probabilities.

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

ralphmalph said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.

It must just be the weather.

It seems to me that Brexit can hardly have come at a worse time for car manufacturers. They are just beginning a massive switch to electric vehicle production, which will surely require huge investment in new plant and the development of new supplier networks. The uncertainty posed by Brexit is bound to be a factor in dissuading such investment in the UK. So it is not so much the closure of old plants that we need to worry about, rather the potential failure to upgrade plants or open new plants. Brexit is an existential threat to the British car industry.

Going electric is an existential threat to the EU car industry. Where are the lithium deposits? The current thinking in the car industry is that the EV production will be next door to the battery production because shipping very heavy batteries around the world is expensive. Especially if the EV is then exported again.

This is why I am surprised still that the EU did not go hydrogen.

The lithium deposits for everyone are in Chile. Germany has zero petroleum and that didn't stop it building an internal combustion engine automotive industry

Not entirely comparable- you don’t need petrol to build a car.

(Not that you are wrong of course)

Fair point.

Nevertheless, world lithium production is utterly dominated by three countries: Argentina, Chile and Australia. (Basically places where there used to be seas, and where it evaperated, leaving lithium rich sands to be mined.) And the lithium deposits in these places, they're not next to major population centres.

Simply, cars are not going to be built close to lithium deposits. Instead (like with steel) the raw material will be shipped to close to where the cars are produced - whether that is Alabama, Detroit or Germany.

Toms said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

I reckon this website is, to a degree, based on hunches, opinions, and probabilities.

That's political commentary and punditry for you.

Are we still paying for Trumpton to parade around this country like some sort of royalty, rather than the bellend that he is?

Charles said:

Toms said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

I reckon this website is, to a degree, based on hunches, opinions, and probabilities.

Of course it is.

But Alastair is obsessively monomaniacal on this topic so I like to yank his chain and set him running every so often

(I am currently in hour 5 of sitting in a room with lawyers)

Good luck. I hope they're able to get you off.

_Anazina_ said:

Are we still paying for Trumpton to parade around this country like some sort of royalty, rather than the bellend that he is?

Depends on your worldview.

He said earlier that he’d come to Ireland because of how strong his relationship with the U.K. was.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Toms said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

I reckon this website is, to a degree, based on hunches, opinions, and probabilities.

Of course it is.

But Alastair is obsessively monomaniacal on this topic so I like to yank his chain and set him running every so often

(I am currently in hour 5 of sitting in a room with lawyers)

Good luck. I hope they're able to get you off.

You should invest in this company

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.

It must just be the weather.

To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says

All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.

They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.

But when an owner like Honda says that its decision is not particularly to do with Brexit that’s to be taken as gospel. Right...

I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.

Overall, a lot more jobs have been gained than lost, over the past three years. I accept, Brexit has not yet occurred, and may never occur, but predictions of widespread redundancies have not materialised.

Well paid manufacturing jobs are falling like 9 pins! Highly qualified time-served engineers are retraining to become zero- hours agency refuse collection drivers or setting themselves up as self- employed dog- sitters. All this lowest unemployment nonsense since the 1960s is all smoke and mirrors!

These automotive jobs like Ford in Bridgend came to the UK with massive European Social fund incentives in the 80s and 90s. What did the EU ever do for us? When they go they are gone forever. Ultimately these full-employment,self-employed or zero-hours jobs are unsustainable without 'real' jobs to back them up. People won't need dog walkers when they have time on their hands to walk their own dog!

Charles said:

viewcode said:

Charles said:

The_Taxman said:

We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48533790
Ford Bridgend closure with thousands of job losses.

They would likely have closed it anyway...

Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton!
Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!

(Edit: duplicate removed)

Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry

Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!

It's an amalgam of issues but the really telling thing is that no-one is investing in the UK at the time when the industry is going through profound change. Germany will invest IIRC nearly €40 billion over the next three years in electric and autonomous vehicles. The UK essentially nothing. The UK did make serious investments before Brexit. When we come out of the current production cycle, Germany will have a major car industry. We probably won't.

rcs1000 said:

ralphmalph said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.

It must just be the weather.

It seems to me that Brexit can hardly have come at a worse time for car manufacturers. They are just beginning a massive switch to electric vehicle production, which will surely require huge investment in new plant and the development of new supplier networks. The uncertainty posed by Brexit is bound to be a factor in dissuading such investment in the UK. So it is not so much the closure of old plants that we need to worry about, rather the potential failure to upgrade plants or open new plants. Brexit is an existential threat to the British car industry.

Going electric is an existential threat to the EU car industry. Where are the lithium deposits? The current thinking in the car industry is that the EV production will be next door to the battery production because shipping very heavy batteries around the world is expensive. Especially if the EV is then exported again.

This is why I am surprised still that the EU did not go hydrogen.

The lithium deposits for everyone are in Chile. Germany has zero petroleum and that didn't stop it building an internal combustion engine automotive industry

You don't need petrol to manufacture cars, you do need (a lot of) lithium.

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

That’s a bit rich from the man who is asserting that the Conservatives can be the wrong side of the line of the most polarising electoral topic of our lifetimes for a cohort of voters and can still hope to win their votes back. Brexit allegiance is far stronger than party allegiance, as the Conservatives are currently discovering.

I stated it as opinion not fact

My belief is that Brexit happens, life goes on, and over time the vast majority of people focus on stuff that matters in the future....

Over what timescale do you guess that might happen ?

I don’t want to accuse you of handwaving, but there are some considerable implied assumptions in the ‘life goes on’ bit.

I think it will be before the 2022 election but it might take until 2027

ExiledInScotland said:

AlastairMeeks said:

ExiledInScotland said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.

It must just be the weather.

Tell us how it is Brexit then.

Show all workings.

When you’re choosing where to retain business, why on earth would you keep it in a place where the current party of government is entertaining choosing a man whose motto is Fuck Business?

Hmm. Lower Corporation Tax rates, Free Ports, Investment incentives...

You missed out unicorns, fairy dust and the assurance that he’ll still respect you in the morning.

I'm really sorry that everyone keeps talking about unicorns. I'd be much happier if we could have dragons with our Brexit. I think they'd be a lot more fun.

With the scorched earth Brexit that Leavers want Britain to head for, you may get your wish.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Toms said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

I reckon this website is, to a degree, based on hunches, opinions, and probabilities.

Of course it is.

But Alastair is obsessively monomaniacal on this topic so I like to yank his chain and set him running every so often

(I am currently in hour 5 of sitting in a room with lawyers)

Translation: "I have no answer to Alastair's points but I am confident as well as ignorant".

Nope. Fundamentally you think this is a permanent realignment, I think it’s a transitory matter of great but temporary salience. Both are plausible positions and I’m not sure that either of us have the data to determine the “right” answer

Well over 70% of the public see themselves as very or fairly strong Leavers or Remainers. By comparison, under half that number have similar allegiance to a political party. There is absolutely no reason to think this divide is going to go away.

You have no evidence for your alternative facts other than hope, because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

OK, I'll give you evens on that. Next GE only though, not a byelection. Will do up to £100. Can be charity bet if you like.

It is a strange one as the LibDems have a great candidate and organisation and Anne Main is not popular, but I still think JC4PM is a problem.

HYUFD said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

This is really interesting and should be read by everyone:

‪ https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1136318700317945856?s=21

Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.

Doesn't that analysis suggest, amongst other things, that Boris might struggle to hold his West London seat?

I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.

No Hillingdon which contains Uxbridge voted Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections and Boris makes his biggest gains with Brexit Party voters in that Yougov poll yesterday

You seem to be rather glossing over the key calculation elements of by how much BXP won, who came second, and the effects of swinging 17% from BXP to Con - would that be enough for Con to come first, or just to let (say) the LDs through the middle.

Have you, in fact, dealt with these and are just summarising, or simply saying "BXP came first there on a heavily split vote, a chunk of that would go Con, therefore Boris is fine"?

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

OK, I'll give you evens on that. Next GE only though, not a byelection. Will do up to £100. Can be charity bet if you like.

It is a strange one as the LibDems have a great candidate and organisation and Anne Main is not popular, but I still think JC4PM is a problem.

You're on - a charity bet it is, £100 from the loser to the cause of the winner's choice.

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Toms said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

I reckon this website is, to a degree, based on hunches, opinions, and probabilities.

Of course it is.

But Alastair is obsessively monomaniacal on this topic so I like to yank his chain and set him running every so often

(I am currently in hour 5 of sitting in a room with lawyers)

Translation: "I have no answer to Alastair's points but I am confident as well as ignorant".

Nope. Fundamentally you think this is a permanent realignment, I think it’s a transitory matter of great but temporary salience. Both are plausible positions and I’m not sure that either of us have the data to determine the “right” answer

Well over 70% of the public see themselves as very or fairly strong Leavers or Remainers. By comparison, under half that number have similar allegiance to a political party. There is absolutely no reason to think this divide is going to go away.

You have no evidence for your alternative facts other than hope, because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse.

Sure it’s a high profile polarising event of the moment.

You have no evidence for the persistence of this divide other than hope because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndyJS said:

_Anazina_ said:

Apropos of nothing, just seen the tape of PMQs.

Rebecca is quite good!

Much better than the Corbynator. I could see myself enjoying a few pints with her (even though she is a Man Utd fan)

Rebecca who?

Rebecca Long-Barrier.

Is there meant to be a joke in there somehwere Sunil?

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

OK, I'll give you evens on that. Next GE only though, not a byelection. Will do up to £100. Can be charity bet if you like.

It is a strange one as the LibDems have a great candidate and organisation and Anne Main is not popular, but I still think JC4PM is a problem.

You're on - a charity bet it is, £100 from the loser to the cause of the winner's choice.

Will you both pay to a charity if the Brexit Party or Labour somehow wins St Albans ?!

I will stump up. In those circumstances, I will give you the honour of nominating a charity @Pulpstar.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Toms said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

Nope. They think you’re deranged.

Have you asked them all?

More analysis and evidence please Alastair, fewer assertions

I reckon this website is, to a degree, based on hunches, opinions, and probabilities.

Of course it is.

But Alastair is obsessively monomaniacal on this topic so I like to yank his chain and set him running every so often

(I am currently in hour 5 of sitting in a room with lawyers)

Translation: "I have no answer to Alastair's points but I am confident as well as ignorant".

Nope. Fundamentally you think this is a permanent realignment, I think it’s a transitory matter of great but temporary salience. Both are plausible positions and I’m not sure that either of us have the data to determine the “right” answer

Well over 70% of the public see themselves as very or fairly strong Leavers or Remainers. By comparison, under half that number have similar allegiance to a political party. There is absolutely no reason to think this divide is going to go away.

You have no evidence for your alternative facts other than hope, because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse.

Sure it’s a high profile polarising event of the moment.

You have no evidence for the persistence of this divide other than hope because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse

Hmm, I think if we leave then the remainers will struggle to vote Con/Lab for a very long time. We could see some pretty odd results and a possible existential crisis for Labour or Conservative (or both) in either scenario.

I don't think we are at a BAU situation if we leave. Though I think as a party we have no chance of ever being in power again if we don't.

_Anazina_ said:

The Remain-Leave division was created by Cameron and his idiotic decision to hold a referendum. It will now be with us for a generation, at least. A sad divide created unnecessarily by a dickhead who has now disappeared from view.

I suspect the issue would have come to a head eventually, what with the EU's desire for continued integration.

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

OK, I'll give you evens on that. Next GE only though, not a byelection. Will do up to £100. Can be charity bet if you like.

It is a strange one as the LibDems have a great candidate and organisation and Anne Main is not popular, but I still think JC4PM is a problem.

You're on - a charity bet it is, £100 from the loser to the cause of the winner's choice.

Will you both pay to a charity if the Brexit Party or Labour somehow wins St Albans ?!

I will stump up. In those circumstances, I will give you the honour of nominating a charity @Pulpstar.

I think the Lib Dems will stroll St Albans very comfortably indeed.

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

AlastairMeeks said:

PaulM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

Gove doesn’t agree with HYUFD

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21

Jeremy Hunt made a similar point this morning. They’re both deluded. Those voters have gone for good.

Still of the belief that until the LibDems come out and say that they won't put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street they'll struggle to close the deal in a GE with Tories otherwise minded to support them in target seats like St Albans, Sutton etc.

Are you offering evens that the Lib Dems will take St Albans? Because if so I would like to be on the Lib Dem side of the bet.

OK, I'll give you evens on that. Next GE only though, not a byelection. Will do up to £100. Can be charity bet if you like.

It is a strange one as the LibDems have a great candidate and organisation and Anne Main is not popular, but I still think JC4PM is a problem.

You're on - a charity bet it is, £100 from the loser to the cause of the winner's choice.

Will you both pay to a charity if the Brexit Party or Labour somehow wins St Albans ?!

I will stump up. In those circumstances, I will give you the honour of nominating a charity @Pulpstar.

I will do likewise. Thanks Alastair.

I decided to have a go at filling in the blanks as far as Tory leadership endorsements are concerned with an estimate of how the undeclared MPs might vote. These are the figures I came out with:

Johnson 98
Hunt 52
Raab 45
Gove 44
Stewart 21
Javid 19
Hancock 13
Harper 7
McVey 6
Leadsom 4
Gyimah 4

I couldn't think of any further supporters for Hancock, Harper, McVey, Leadsom or Gyimah, although in reality they'll probably pick up more votes. Also I've probably overestimated Johnson's total because I was tending to give him the votes of difficult to allocate MP on the basis that the frontrunner tends to do well with the undecided.

Mexicanpete said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.

It must just be the weather.

To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says

All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.

They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.

But when an owner like Honda says that its decision is not particularly to do with Brexit that’s to be taken as gospel. Right...

I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.

Overall, a lot more jobs have been gained than lost, over the past three years. I accept, Brexit has not yet occurred, and may never occur, but predictions of widespread redundancies have not materialised.

Well paid manufacturing jobs are falling like 9 pins! Highly qualified time-served engineers are retraining to become zero- hours agency refuse collection drivers or setting themselves up as self- employed dog- sitters. All this lowest unemployment nonsense since the 1960s is all smoke and mirrors!

These automotive jobs like Ford in Bridgend came to the UK with massive European Social fund incentives in the 80s and 90s. What did the EU ever do for us? When they go they are gone forever. Ultimately these full-employment,self-employed or zero-hours jobs are unsustainable without 'real' jobs to back them up. People won't need dog walkers when they have time on their hands to walk their own dog!

It's a myth that somehow the jobs being created at the moment are not "real jobs." Most job growth is now full time employment.

It's something of a slight of hand to blame every job loss on Brexit, while thinking up some other cause for every job gain.

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).

I disagree.

I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.

I think that's a very complacent view and you are underestimating how strongly some people people feel about Brexit. It will depend how Brexit actually plays out of course but if it does come to be generally viewed as a grave mistake it will be a long time before many former voters will forgive the Conservative party. I might be wrong but I suspect that you will be one of those who don't expect to be be personally inconvenienced if Brexit turns out to be an economic disaster.

StuartDickson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/EJWardNews/status/1136313149504806919

I sometimes wonder if Trump really is educationally subnormal.

Me too. The evidence points to me missing the point rather than him though.

The Lib Dems have a very simple message, all to themselves. Vote for us to keep the status quo, if you don't like change without clear benefits. It's a message the Conservatives used successfully for a hundred or more years. It's strange for the Lib Dems to be the incumbency party.

dixiedean said:

AndyJS said:

I decided to have a go at filling in the blanks as far as Tory leadership endorsements are concerned with an estimate of how the undeclared MPs might vote. These are the figures I came out with:

Johnson 98
Hunt 52
Raab 45
Gove 44
Stewart 21
Javid 19
Hancock 13
Harper 7
McVey 6
Leadsom 4
Gyimah 4

I couldn't think of any further supporters for Hancock, Harper, McVey, Leadsom or Gyimah, although in reality they'll probably pick up more votes. Also I've probably overestimated Johnson's total because I was tending to give him the votes of difficult to allocate MP on the basis that the frontrunner tends to do well with the undecided.

Wouldn't the undecided be more likely to use their votes tactically? Either to get a minor candidate over the threshold and into the next round or boost an acceptable second or third choice? There is precious little utility in backing the front runner at this stage even if you are tending towards supporting him eventually.

That may be true but I have a feeling a lot of Tory MPs like to back the frontrunner if they don't have any strong preferences.

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Translation: "I have no answer to Alastair's points but I am confident as well as ignorant".

Nope. Fundamentally you think this is a permanent realignment, I think it’s a transitory matter of great but temporary salience. Both are plausible positions and I’m not sure that either of us have the data to determine the “right” answer

Well over 70% of the public see themselves as very or fairly strong Leavers or Remainers. By comparison, under half that number have similar allegiance to a political party. There is absolutely no reason to think this divide is going to go away.

You have no evidence for your alternative facts other than hope, because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse.

Sure it’s a high profile polarising event of the moment.

You have no evidence for the persistence of this divide other than hope because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse

Hmm, I think if we leave then the remainers will struggle to vote Con/Lab for a very long time. We could see some pretty odd results and a possible existential crisis for Labour or Conservative (or both) in either scenario.

I don't think we are at a BAU situation if we leave. Though I think as a party we have no chance of ever being in power again if we don't.

The Conservatives have two routes to a longterm future from here. The first is to secure a form of Brexit, accepting that they will be throwing in their lot with a declining demographic and trusting to the effluxion of time. Frankly it doesn't look very good from here, not least because securing a form of Brexit looks unlikely from here.

The second is much more promising but requires a conspiracy of silence. It requires the Conservatives to lose power very quickly, before Brexit can be completed, and letting someone else pull the plug on the project.

I agree with the second point to some degree, I think losing an election on brexit and watching Labour pull the plug will probably mean we will be back within a few years, though I'm not sure what the party would look like.

StuartDickson said

I sometimes wonder if Trump really is educationally subnormal.


This cartoon of the emperor's new clothes is a favourite of mine:
https://tinyurl.com/y3sp8hj5