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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    It seems likely that there's a range of views across all age groups. Although it's eyebrow-raising to see the hate-filled, xenophobic coffin-dodgers have suddenly transmogrified into noble, heroic, pro-EU sages.

    Perhaps better to avoid stereotyping generally, and to discuss issues than castigate people (particularly based on their demography, which is sheer bigotry).

    The hate-fill xenophobes tend to be more those baby-boomer sods, with their LSD-addled brains from the summer of love and generous pensions.
    Do I detect a hint of green cheese in that
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Nice rebuke to the Daily Mail too, which in an earlier anti-semitic era they seem to have forgotten about, ran a campaign against him in the "dangerous cosmpolitan" vein.
    The Daily Mail has had considerably more antisemitic eras than the Labour Party when you come to think about it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Did anyone take my tip last night of a 35% return by betting on New Zealand against Bangladesh? It's now 20%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I am very hopeful of a decent Mordaunt trade. Surely she is running?

    Sounded like it this morning. It's a hole in my book.
    Dear Liza, dear Liza
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Scott_P said:
    Yet another militaristic quotation from another nerdy Brexiteer. They really are pathetic.
    Steve Baker is the Bible Bashing Rambo of our times. He really is a nutjob . Indeed the ERG as a whole should be sectioned .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Mr D, the Brexit Party IS a party of the far right. The fact that people like you who are clearly at the moderate end of Brexit opinion will not recognise it as such is a great pity. Farage is a racist and is energised by the polluted air of divisive populism. He doesn't wear jackboots and do funny salutes, but that doesn't rule him out from being a "modern" fascist.

    His backstory from his school days, his behaviour to others in his own party and his deplorable poster all tells us what he is. The fact that 32% of the population is gullible enough, or right wing enough, to support him is sad, but it does not surprise me. Britain is no more immune to extremism than anywhere else.

    So astute on the Hard Brexit Right and yet so jaundiced about the Progressive Left.

    How can this be?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    felix said:

    It seems likely that there's a range of views across all age groups. Although it's eyebrow-raising to see the hate-filled, xenophobic coffin-dodgers have suddenly transmogrified into noble, heroic, pro-EU sages.

    Perhaps better to avoid stereotyping generally, and to discuss issues than castigate people (particularly based on their demography, which is sheer bigotry).

    The hate-fill xenophobes tend to me more those baby-boomer sods, with their LSD-addled brains from the summer of love and generous pensions.
    I would say the generation after are actually more conservative. Many of the most vociferous brexiters seem to be around 55-65.
    Brexiteers are not conservatives in the real sense. They are wreckers and revolutionaries, who are quite happy to risk economic chaos to pursue their small minded ideology. Conservatives like to maintain stability. The Conservative Party is no more.
    What ? All 18 million of them. Face it - the vote was lost.
    The adult population of the UK is 51 million. Considerably less than half the adult population voted for voluntary self harm.The tyranny of a binary and simplistic referendum should not go unchallenged.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sean_F said:

    47% for Conservative and Labour seems optimistic.
    The Tories would bite their own hands off to secure as high as 17%. Dead as the dodo for the time being.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Lot of wasted effort to just get mullered by Boris in the members' vote.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Scott_P said:
    Do we have any evidence that there are any actual ex-Change MPs involved in this, and it isn't just a bunch of 20-year olds talking on WhatsApp?

    I mean, the only one to have surfaced so far (in a reply to Layla Moran) appears to be an over-enthusiastic but not particularly connected 20-year old.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019
    dixiedean said:
    Actually being in the war and watching lots of war films have different effects on one’s attitude toward Europe? Who’d have thought.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
    Puts the faux nostalgia and sanitised WW2 tales of derring-do from the time Britain stood "alone" in perspective. Those who were actually there at the time take a different view.
    Do they, or are we relying on anecdotes again?
    I believe that there is data showing that voters over 85 were predominantly remain, it's the slightly younger group - 55-75 - that gave leave its majority.
    my 79yo auntie has been on two peoples vote marches in london. lives in yorkshire so made an effort.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looking at the latest Tory leadership figures, it seems like what it's going to boil down to is which of Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove joins Boris Johnson in the members' ballot.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    47% for Conservative and Labour seems optimistic.
    The Tories would bite their own hands off to secure as high as 17%. Dead as the dodo for the time being.
    There’s probably a fair few Tory Remainers in this seat, and the LDs here are not much of a feature, so they may stick with the Conservatives to reduce the damage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:
    Actually being in the war and watching lots of war films have different effects on one’s attitude toward Europe? Who’d have thought.
    I think a lot of the whole Brexit thing amongst 70 year olds (i.e. post war) is nostalgia for the 1950s.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the latest Tory leadership figures, it seems like what it's going to boil down to is which of Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove joins Boris Johnson in the members' ballot.

    Both of them have worked out that the MPs votes are on the Remain side of Boris.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2019
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the latest Tory leadership figures, it seems like what it's going to boil down to is which of Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove joins Boris Johnson in the members' ballot.

    Both of them have worked out that the MPs votes are on the Remain side of Boris.
    That gets them to the last two, but remainyness won't help afterwards.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    At last one of them being honest about Brexit?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    At some point hopefully in the not too distant future a party of the centre right has to emerge and take up the mantle. In Spain it increasingly looks as if Ciudadanos may be replacing PP. Unfortunately the Lds in the UK are way too left-wing for most centre-right voters except on the one issue.
    You say that but I challenge you to name 5 significant LD policies without googling. I could do remain in the EU and PR. That’s it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    matt said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    At some point hopefully in the not too distant future a party of the centre right has to emerge and take up the mantle. In Spain it increasingly looks as if Ciudadanos may be replacing PP. Unfortunately the Lds in the UK are way too left-wing for most centre-right voters except on the one issue.
    You say that but I challenge you to name 5 significant LD policies without googling. I could do remain in the EU and PR. That’s it.
    Not renew Trident?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Get your pro-Gove spin on the hustings in this thread.

    https://twitter.com/tomtugendhat/status/1136305511215882240?s=21
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the latest Tory leadership figures, it seems like what it's going to boil down to is which of Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove joins Boris Johnson in the members' ballot.

    Yep. Mordaunt looking far too late to this party as it stands.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:
    Actually being in the war and watching lots of war films have different effects on one’s attitude toward Europe? Who’d have thought.
    I think a lot of the whole Brexit thing amongst 70 year olds (i.e. post war) is nostalgia for the 1950s.

    You mean they want rationing back?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Scott_P said:
    I would have thought that "Coalition" is the more toxic word for the Lib Dems...
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    Well he did buy a lot of fridges, so he's probably got more shit done than most of the Cabinet in the last 9 months.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    kle4 said:

    matt said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    At some point hopefully in the not too distant future a party of the centre right has to emerge and take up the mantle. In Spain it increasingly looks as if Ciudadanos may be replacing PP. Unfortunately the Lds in the UK are way too left-wing for most centre-right voters except on the one issue.
    You say that but I challenge you to name 5 significant LD policies without googling. I could do remain in the EU and PR. That’s it.
    Not renew Trident?
    Not at the last election, it appears. Who speaks for them on Defence? Does it matter any more if we have culture war and detail beyond simplistic black and white appears irrelevant?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1136304303419875328

    Gove is becoming one of the saner runners.

    So if it is Gove vs Boris, the membership will decide UK Brexit policy in run up to October.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    matt said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    At some point hopefully in the not too distant future a party of the centre right has to emerge and take up the mantle. In Spain it increasingly looks as if Ciudadanos may be replacing PP. Unfortunately the Lds in the UK are way too left-wing for most centre-right voters except on the one issue.
    You say that but I challenge you to name 5 significant LD policies without googling. I could do remain in the EU and PR. That’s it.
    Not renew Trident?
    Free hash for school kids?

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AndyJS said:

    I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.


    It’s complete nonsense. No better (and probably worse) scholarship than the Rees-Mogg oeuvre. If you believe it, you need to recalibrate.

    As supporting evidence, I give you the New Statesman: “Peter Hitchens’s Eurosceptic take on the Second World War is riddled with errors and bizarre theories
    The Mail on Sunday columnist, relying on a handful of eccentric studies, argues that September 1939 was the wrong moment for Britain to go to war against Germany.“. Review by Richard Evans, former professor.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:
    Actually being in the war and watching lots of war films have different effects on one’s attitude toward Europe? Who’d have thought.
    I think a lot of the whole Brexit thing amongst 70 year olds (i.e. post war) is nostalgia for the 1950s.

    You mean they want rationing back?
    They had sex then. It’s all shrivelled to a chipolata and two peanuts now. Not that it’s visible to many.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Mauve said:

    Well he did buy a lot of fridges, so he's probably got more shit done than most of the Cabinet in the last 9 months.
    Real fridges too. Unlike Grayling's ferry services.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2019

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1136304303419875328

    Gove is becoming one of the saner runners.

    So if it is Gove vs Boris, the membership will decide UK Brexit policy in run up to October.

    Gove is making precisely the point I've been making. A firm commitment to an arbitrary date - which was one of Theresa May's big mistakes - is just nuts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the latest Tory leadership figures, it seems like what it's going to boil down to is which of Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove joins Boris Johnson in the members' ballot.

    Both of them have worked out that the MPs votes are on the Remain side of Boris.
    That gets them to the last two, but remainyness won't help afterwards.
    Like most politicians they can only focus on what is immediately under their nose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1136304303419875328

    Gove is becoming one of the saner runners.

    So if it is Gove vs Boris, the membership will decide UK Brexit policy in run up to October.

    Gove is making precisely the point I've been making. A firm commitment to an arbitrary date - which was one of Theresa May's big mistakes - is just nuts.
    I have more respect for him now. Of course it is nuts, but the membership want it, so Boris has said it.

    The sad thing is that Boris could well win without this insane cliff edge. History will never know.

    Still, chances are he will back out of it the morning after winning the vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1136304303419875328

    Gove is becoming one of the saner runners.

    So if it is Gove vs Boris, the membership will decide UK Brexit policy in run up to October.

    Gove is making precisely the point I've been making. A firm commitment to an arbitrary date - which was one of Theresa May's big mistakes - is just nuts.
    And yet a nuanced position almost always fails before a firm yet simple one. "We must leave the EU by 31 October, no ifs ands or buts" is so much more appealing than a 'We probably will, but in some situations perhaps not" particularly when we've already delayed once and the Remainers are riding high.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the latest Tory leadership figures, it seems like what it's going to boil down to is which of Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove joins Boris Johnson in the members' ballot.

    Both of them have worked out that the MPs votes are on the Remain side of Boris.
    That gets them to the last two, but remainyness won't help afterwards.
    Like most politicians they can only focus on what is immediately under their nose.
    If you make the last two, then there is always the chance that the other candidate implodes on the hustings trail.

    Suddenly, you are last one standing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    AndyJS said:

    I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.

    don't tell me. bletchley park didn't shorten the war by 2 years?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    dixiedean said:
    But presumably they broke for leave by a substantial margin given their dying off means there are now more remain voters alive today.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    matt said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:
    Actually being in the war and watching lots of war films have different effects on one’s attitude toward Europe? Who’d have thought.
    I think a lot of the whole Brexit thing amongst 70 year olds (i.e. post war) is nostalgia for the 1950s.

    You mean they want rationing back?
    They had sex then.
    Hopefully not in the 1950s.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    It amuses me reading some of the comments on here about Tory prospects due to the Brexit party. Some people talk complete shit! The Brexit party was widely considered a one off protest vote before the European election, now some excitable folk claim it is a sign of people voting Brexit party in perpetuity. We have heard this nonsense before with regard to the 'enduring' nature of one result in 2016!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HY is in trouble on item 2.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    matt said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:
    Actually being in the war and watching lots of war films have different effects on one’s attitude toward Europe? Who’d have thought.
    I think a lot of the whole Brexit thing amongst 70 year olds (i.e. post war) is nostalgia for the 1950s.

    You mean they want rationing back?
    They had sex then. It’s all shrivelled to a chipolata and two peanuts now. Not that it’s visible to many.
    Have a little think about how attractive that post makes you look.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    There's a reasonable chance that photo 2, shows the leader after Jezza:

    https://twitter.com/HoCPress/status/1136318668395208705
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrea Leadsom has finally been overtaken by Jeremy Hunt in the betting stakes.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?

    Having fallen into the classic trap of laying others once I'd specifically deposited to oppose the crazy Leadsom price, my joint book (both markets) is around:

    Hunt +6
    Mordaunt / McVey +5
    Gove +4
    Raab / Javid +3
    Johnson +1.5
    Hancock +1
    Stewart -2
    Patel -5
    Baker, Leadsom -8
    If Patel wins, you'll have bigger problems than your Betfair book.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    matt said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:
    Actually being in the war and watching lots of war films have different effects on one’s attitude toward Europe? Who’d have thought.
    I think a lot of the whole Brexit thing amongst 70 year olds (i.e. post war) is nostalgia for the 1950s.

    You mean they want rationing back?
    They had sex then. It’s all shrivelled to a chipolata and two peanuts now. Not that it’s visible to many.
    A chipolata and two peanuts? After a No Deal Brexit, they'll be lucky.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    Owen Who?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    There's a reasonable chance that photo 2, shows the leader after Jezza:

    https://twitter.com/HoCPress/status/1136318668395208705

    Barry Gardiner? I wouldn't mind that one bit. Capable, straightforward, strong on policy, and a heart of gold.

    Does it matter that he's Welsh? I don't see why.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    AndyJS said:

    I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.

    Is that professional historian Peter Hitchens?
    Or the journalist Peter Hitchens?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Please don't anyone start asking the looneys whether they are ruling out the use of strategic nuclear weapons.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    No cliff is so high that contenders can’t find a higher one they’d be willing to try.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Ishmael_Z said:
    Just utterly hideous. In my professional experience, people who use corporate buzz phrases like 'get shit done' are usually hopeless at actually doing things. I'm sure he's nice to animals and I don't wish him harm, but please for the love of God get him off my screen and out of the running to be Prime flipping MINISTER.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
    Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Ishmael_Z said:
    Just utterly hideous. In my professional experience, people who use corporate buzz phrases like 'get shit done' are usually hopeless at actually doing things. I'm sure he's nice to animals and I don't wish him harm, but please for the love of God get him off my screen and out of the running to be Prime flipping MINISTER.
    All of them seem to be promising to get shit done by 31 October, apart from Gove who is willing to defer shit incoming until next year. At least this one is prepared to call a spade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Looks like a good day was had by all at the Southsea commemorations for D Day, my sister was marching with the Female Auxiliary Nurses and met Justin Trudeau
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Tories seem to forget the next election could be nearly 3 years away.

    As long as the UK is out well before then they’ll recover most of their lost votes . This obsession with the October 31 st date is irrational and counter productive .

    If the Tories have any sense they’d go for Gove as the best chance of getting an improved deal , and doing something to unite the country.

    Bozo has zero chance of getting anything out of the EU, he’s despised and they will never do anything that looks like rewarding a populist who trashed the deal they spent 2 years negotiating .



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
    Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
    Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    This is a good, if terrifying, thread. I think he's spot on - Baker is setting up to box in Boris (or any other leader) as he did May:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1136290887179362307
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:
    But presumably they broke for leave by a substantial margin given their dying off means there are now more remain voters alive today.
    Essentially, like a divorcing party taking all the good records, Remain have claimed all young, fresh, dynamic people, but now that we've been reminded of some old people who were quite good and beat Hitler and stuff, they'll have those too. Best not to bring facts into the discussion.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    The South African economy contracted by 3% in the first 3 months of the year.

    https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-06-04-shock-as-sas-first-quarter-economic-growth-shrinks-by-3-2/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    IanB2 said:

    HY is in trouble on item 2.
    He is talking rubbish on 2

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited June 2019

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.

    don't tell me. bletchley park didn't shorten the war by 2 years?
    Exactly right.

    Hitchens believes that - by allowing the Allies to win - Bletchley Park lengthed the war, increased the amount of human suffering and led inevitably to such abominations as the permissive society.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HY is in trouble on item 2.
    He is talking rubbish on 2

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
    Good to see that the LibDems’ newly enhanced voter base is entirely solid and indifferent as to who the crazies choose as their leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
    Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
    Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
    No, a constitutional fact.

    If the executive does not put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and the Commons cannot pass an amendmemt too it then there is nothing to stop the executive pursuing No Deal.

    Plus of course Macron is increasingly likely to veto any further extension beyond October anyway unless for EUref2 in which case it would then be No Deal or revoke if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:
    Just utterly hideous. In my professional experience, people who use corporate buzz phrases like 'get shit done' are usually hopeless at actually doing things. I'm sure he's nice to animals and I don't wish him harm, but please for the love of God get him off my screen and out of the running to be Prime flipping MINISTER.
    All of them seem to be promising to get shit done by 31 October, apart from Gove who is willing to defer shit incoming until next year. At least this one is prepared to call a spade.
    What they are promising is irrelevant to the point. He is not calling anything a spade, he is using swear words, yet again, to try and make himself seem edgy and modern. The lack of self awareness involved makes him an uncomfortable watch.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.

    don't tell me. bletchley park didn't shorten the war by 2 years?
    Exactly right.

    Hitchens believes that - by allowing the Allies to win - Bletchley Park lengthed the war, increased the amount of human suffering and led inevitably to such abominations as the permissive society.

    It’s utter, utter nonsense, aimed squarely at the Daily Mail/Express readership.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HY is in trouble on item 2.
    He is talking rubbish on 2

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
    Good to see that the LibDems’ newly enhanced voter base is entirely solid and indifferent as to who the crazies choose as their leader.
    And the LDs tie or lead Labour whoever succeeds May as Tory leader but they only tie or lead the Tories if Javid, Hunt or Gove is Tory leader, not with Boris or Raab.

    The Brexit Party also only tie the Tories if they are led by Hunt or Gove, against Boris, Raab or Javid they trail the Tories
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
    Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
    Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
    No, a constitutional fact.

    If the executive does not put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and the Commons cannot pass an amendmemt too it then there is nothing to stop the executive pursuing No Deal.

    Plus of course Macron is increasingly likely to veto any further extension beyond October anyway unless for EUref2 in which case it would then be No Deal or revoke if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then
    Which sources are giving you your Macron insight?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HY is in trouble on item 2.
    He is talking rubbish on 2

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
    Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    This is a good, if terrifying, thread. I think he's spot on - Baker is setting up to box in Boris (or any other leader) as he did May:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1136290887179362307

    Any plan that does not mention the impact of dropping out of the EU's laws on double taxation and withholding tax is not a plan.

    In the entire 10 page report , the only mention of tax is in the context of tax cuts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    kle4 said:

    That gets them to the last two, but remainyness won't help afterwards.

    Why not follow the US model for getting the nomination then creating a different vibe for the general?

    So Hancock, say, is incredibly sane and soft brexity for the MPs, convinces them, makes the final 2 - then pivots and transforms himself into a fire-breathing, sword-wielding No Deal BEAST to seduce the grassroots.

    Lack of integrity in that, sure, but integrity is for losers these days.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
    Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
    Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
    No, a constitutional fact.

    If the executive does not put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and the Commons cannot pass an amendmemt too it then there is nothing to stop the executive pursuing No Deal.

    Plus of course Macron is increasingly likely to veto any further extension beyond October anyway unless for EUref2 in which case it would then be No Deal or revoke if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then
    PB’ers can just file it away, alongside your Macron veto predictions, and compare with what actually comes to pass. Just as they did the last time no deal was consigned to the bin.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    The South African economy contracted by 3% in the first 3 months of the year.

    https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-06-04-shock-as-sas-first-quarter-economic-growth-shrinks-by-3-2/

    In all the Tory leadership mess, no-one seems to have noticed that the US PMI followed the UK in dropping precipitously in May. New orders are now at their worst level in a decade.

    PMIs in the Eurozone (excluding France and Spain), the US and the UK all now point to a recession.

    It may be that we quickly bounce back, and this will turn out to have been a non-issue. But we're all so obsessed with other things, that we've missed a real darkening of the economic clouds.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
    Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
    Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
    No, a constitutional fact.

    If the executive does not put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and the Commons cannot pass an amendmemt too it then there is nothing to stop the executive pursuing No Deal.

    Plus of course Macron is increasingly likely to veto any further extension beyond October anyway unless for EUref2 in which case it would then be No Deal or revoke if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then
    Ultimately the Commons can bin the Executive and create another one. If they want to. Nothing the Executive can do to stop them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    That gets them to the last two, but remainyness won't help afterwards.

    Why not follow the US model for getting the nomination then creating a different vibe for the general?

    So Hancock, say, is incredibly sane and soft brexity for the MPs, convinces them, makes the final 2 - then pivots and transforms himself into a fire-breathing, sword-wielding No Deal BEAST to seduce the grassroots.

    Lack of integrity in that, sure, but integrity is for losers these days.
    He'd have to transform himself into a credible politician first, which would be an extraordinary metamorphosis.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    That gets them to the last two, but remainyness won't help afterwards.

    Why not follow the US model for getting the nomination then creating a different vibe for the general?

    So Hancock, say, is incredibly sane and soft brexity for the MPs, convinces them, makes the final 2 - then pivots and transforms himself into a fire-breathing, sword-wielding No Deal BEAST to seduce the grassroots.

    Lack of integrity in that, sure, but integrity is for losers these days.
    He'd have to transform himself into a credible politician first, which would be an extraordinary metamorphosis.
    As per running from the tiger, he doesn’t need to be credible, just less incredible than his opponent.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
    Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
    Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
    No, a constitutional fact.

    If the executive does not put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and the Commons cannot pass an amendmemt too it then there is nothing to stop the executive pursuing No Deal.

    Plus of course Macron is increasingly likely to veto any further extension beyond October anyway unless for EUref2 in which case it would then be No Deal or revoke if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then
    Bercow can do what he likes . He can find a way for MPs to suspend the standing orders. The role of the speaker and his power has not until recently come under such scrutiny because governments have had majorities . However he has huge power now and can use it to enable MPs to stop a no deal.

    Don’t forget there are also several bills that need to pass even in the event of a no deal . Immigration , trade etc . May has been too terrified to bring those back for fear of amendments .
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    The South African economy contracted by 3% in the first 3 months of the year.

    https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-06-04-shock-as-sas-first-quarter-economic-growth-shrinks-by-3-2/

    In all the Tory leadership mess, no-one seems to have noticed that the US PMI followed the UK in dropping precipitously in May. New orders are now at their worst level in a decade.

    PMIs in the Eurozone (excluding France and Spain), the US and the UK all now point to a recession.

    It may be that we quickly bounce back, and this will turn out to have been a non-issue. But we're all so obsessed with other things, that we've missed a real darkening of the economic clouds.
    I’ve learned here that (a) people care more about sovereignty than economics and some suffering is quite acceptable; (b) that taxing the high earners will solve everything; and (c) you shouldn’t believe professionals.

    Why do you think the mass of people care?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:
    But presumably they broke for leave by a substantial margin given their dying off means there are now more remain voters alive today.
    Essentially, like a divorcing party taking all the good records, Remain have claimed all young, fresh, dynamic people, but now that we've been reminded of some old people who were quite good and beat Hitler and stuff, they'll have those too. Best not to bring facts into the discussion.
    Ah but they were young and dynamic when they beat Hitler and now they’re old and Brexity
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:
    Just utterly hideous. In my professional experience, people who use corporate buzz phrases like 'get shit done' are usually hopeless at actually doing things. I'm sure he's nice to animals and I don't wish him harm, but please for the love of God get him off my screen and out of the running to be Prime flipping MINISTER.
    You can just bet that "Get shit done" has been brainstormed and focus grouped by a paid adviser to see if it flies the way Bollocks to Brexit flew. No adult naturally says "get shit done" rather than things or stuff done in that sort of context.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Macron and the veto !

    We’ve been here before . The previous extension was before the EU elections and so he had to look like the tough guy.

    Leavers seem to keep putting their faith in other EU heads of state to deliver their no deal. We of course remember that allegedly Salvini or Orban would veto , remind me what happened !

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    A Quinnipiac poll has Biden ahead of Trump in Texas, and Warren only 1% behind.

    https://twitter.com/JonEasley/status/1136325520243773440
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    The South African economy contracted by 3% in the first 3 months of the year.

    https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-06-04-shock-as-sas-first-quarter-economic-growth-shrinks-by-3-2/

    In all the Tory leadership mess, no-one seems to have noticed that the US PMI followed the UK in dropping precipitously in May. New orders are now at their worst level in a decade.

    PMIs in the Eurozone (excluding France and Spain), the US and the UK all now point to a recession.

    It may be that we quickly bounce back, and this will turn out to have been a non-issue. But we're all so obsessed with other things, that we've missed a real darkening of the economic clouds.
    I’ve learned here that (a) people care more about sovereignty than economics and some suffering is quite acceptable; (b) that taxing the high earners will solve everything; and (c) you shouldn’t believe professionals.

    Why do you think the mass of people care?
    Nobody cares about economics when the economy is moving nicely along.
    Nobody worries about sovereignty when they've just lost their job.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,394
    Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48533790
    Ford Bridgend closure with thousands of job losses.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.

    This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.

    don't tell me. bletchley park didn't shorten the war by 2 years?
    Exactly right.

    Hitchens believes that - by allowing the Allies to win - Bletchley Park lengthed the war, increased the amount of human suffering and led inevitably to such abominations as the permissive society.

    Hindsight, Shmindsight.

    For a good and topical WW2 book Beevor's "D Day" is excellent. With what I now recognise as appalling naivety I vaguely thought that the Battle of Normandy, fought in Western Europe by civilised Westerners, might have been a bit lighter on atrocities than battles taking place East of Suez. The book corrects that error.
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