Very surprised that there are still a lot of tickets left for tomorrow's match at Trent Bridge between Australia and West Indies. I suppose it's a long way to come for supporters of those teams.
I decided to have a go at filling in the blanks as far as Tory leadership endorsements are concerned with an estimate of how the undeclared MPs might vote. These are the figures I came out with:
I couldn't think of any further supporters for Hancock, Harper, McVey, Leadsom or Gyimah, although in reality they'll probably pick up more votes. Also I've probably overestimated Johnson's total because I was tending to give him the votes of difficult to allocate MP on the basis that the frontrunner tends to do well with the undecided.
That looks about right to me.
Stewart might easily make it to the second round and, if he’s very lucky, perhaps even just survive it but he’d go no further.
Translation: "I have no answer to Alastair's points but I am confident as well as ignorant".
Nope. Fundamentally you think this is a permanent realignment, I think it’s a transitory matter of great but temporary salience. Both are plausible positions and I’m not sure that either of us have the data to determine the “right” answer
Well over 70% of the public see themselves as very or fairly strong Leavers or Remainers. By comparison, under half that number have similar allegiance to a political party. There is absolutely no reason to think this divide is going to go away.
You have no evidence for your alternative facts other than hope, because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse.
Sure it’s a high profile polarising event of the moment.
You have no evidence for the persistence of this divide other than hope because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse
Hmm, I think if we leave then the remainers will struggle to vote Con/Lab for a very long time. We could see some pretty odd results and a possible existential crisis for Labour or Conservative (or both) in either scenario.
I don't think we are at a BAU situation if we leave. Though I think as a party we have no chance of ever being in power again if we don't.
The Conservatives have two routes to a longterm future from here. The first is to secure a form of Brexit, accepting that they will be throwing in their lot with a declining demographic and trusting to the effluxion of time. Frankly it doesn't look very good from here, not least because securing a form of Brexit looks unlikely from here.
The second is much more promising but requires a conspiracy of silence. It requires the Conservatives to lose power very quickly, before Brexit can be completed, and letting someone else pull the plug on the project.
I agree with the second point to some degree, I think losing an election on brexit and watching Labour pull the plug will probably mean we will be back within a few years, though I'm not sure what the party would look like.
Much, much smaller; and much, much less repulsive.
Translation: "I have no answer to Alastair's points but I am confident as well as ignorant".
Nope. Fundamentally you think this is a permanent realignment, I think it’s a transitory matter of great but temporary salience. Both are plausible positions and I’m not sure that either of us have the data to determine the “right” answer
Well over 70% of the public see themselves as very or fairly strong Leavers or Remainers. By comparison, under half that number have similar allegiance to a political party. There is absolutely no reason to think this divide is going to go away.
You have no evidence for your alternative facts other than hope, because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse.
Sure it’s a high profile polarising event of the moment.
You have no evidence for the persistence of this divide other than hope because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse
Hmm, I think if we leave then the remainers will struggle to vote Con/Lab for a very long time. We could see some pretty odd results and a possible existential crisis for Labour or Conservative (or both) in either scenario.
I don't think we are at a BAU situation if we leave. Though I think as a party we have no chance of ever being in power again if we don't.
The Conservatives have two routes to a longterm future from here. The first is to secure a form of Brexit, accepting that they will be throwing in their lot with a declining demographic and trusting to the effluxion of time. Frankly it doesn't look very good from here, not least because securing a form of Brexit looks unlikely from here.
The second is much more promising but requires a conspiracy of silence. It requires the Conservatives to lose power very quickly, before Brexit can be completed, and letting someone else pull the plug on the project.
I agree with the second point to some degree, I think losing an election on brexit and watching Labour pull the plug will probably mean we will be back within a few years, though I'm not sure what the party would look like.
Much, much smaller; and much, much less repulsive.
That pretty much sums up the BBC’s sycophantic coverage: behold the wonderful Donald.
Agreed. And there seems to be feverish reporting that our trade is going to be just dandy after all because Trump'll fix it ( provided we abase the health service further and maybe accept chlorinated chicken).
It seems to me that Brexit can hardly have come at a worse time for car manufacturers. They are just beginning a massive switch to electric vehicle production, which will surely require huge investment in new plant and the development of new supplier networks. The uncertainty posed by Brexit is bound to be a factor in dissuading such investment in the UK. So it is not so much the closure of old plants that we need to worry about, rather the potential failure to upgrade plants or open new plants. Brexit is an existential threat to the British car industry.
Going electric is an existential threat to the EU car industry. Where are the lithium deposits? The current thinking in the car industry is that the EV production will be next door to the battery production because shipping very heavy batteries around the world is expensive. Especially if the EV is then exported again.
This is why I am surprised still that the EU did not go hydrogen.
The lithium deposits for everyone are in Chile. Germany has zero petroleum and that didn't stop it building an internal combustion engine automotive industry
You don't need petrol to manufacture cars, you do need (a lot of) lithium.
Nevertheless, the places where lithium is, people are not. (I.e. Australian outback, Chilean and Argentinian deserts.)
Surely even heavy Lithium batterries travel fairly cheaply by sea?
Considering the numbers of cars in Britain sold at competitive prices and made in the Far East, shipping costs must be fairly small.
A Tesla battery is around half a tonne, and requires around sixty kilos of lithium carbonate to manufacture, I think. Batteries are likely to be manufactured in integrated plants sited within the major markets.
More to the point from our point of view is that it’s not particularly attractive to invest billions in a major manufacturing plant to export from a country which might be about to be subject to tariffs from its biggest export market.
Brexit is exceptionally ill timed for UK motor manufacturing.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
I sometimes wonder if Trump really is educationally subnormal.
Me too. The evidence points to me missing the point rather than him though.
But I’d hope you knew that there isn’t a wall across Ireland?
Not sure that was instrumental in my view.
Trump, on all available evidence, is a genius. The rest of us aren't.
Sort of weird.
I think the OED ought to be informed that we have a new definition of the word genius.
Keep quiet though, If we have to have a bad legislature from time-to-time then its far better that they should succeed than that they should fail.
Nonetheless though there's something about Trump that somehow delivers. I think he's a berk of the first order. His success and my judgement cannot both be true.
The Remain-Leave division was created by Cameron and his idiotic decision to hold a referendum. It will now be with us for a generation, at least. A sad divide created unnecessarily by a dickhead who has now disappeared from view.
Both your language and post quality is deteriorating again.
This isn’t Twitter.
I think the generally accepted way to describe Cameron is "twat".
As in:
“So what’s happened to that twat David Cameron who called it on.
“Let’s be fair.... How comes he can scuttle off? He called all this on. Yeah? Called it on.
“Where is he? He’s in Europe, in Nice, with his trotters up, yeah? Where is the geezer?
“I think he should be held to account for it. He should be held to account for it.
Translation: "I have no answer to Alastair's points but I am confident as well as ignorant".
Nope. Fundamentally you think this is a permanent realignment, I think it’s a transitory matter of great but temporary salience. Both are plausible positions and I’m not sure that either of us have the data to determine the “right” answer
Well over 70% of the public see themselves as very or fairly strong Leavers or Remainers. By comparison, under half that number have similar allegiance to a political party. There is absolutely no reason to think this divide is going to go away.
You have no evidence for your alternative facts other than hope, because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse.
Sure it’s a high profile polarising event of the moment.
You have no evidence for the persistence of this divide other than hope because you are obsessed by your malign hobbyhorse
Hmm, I think if we leave then the remainers will struggle to vote Con/Lab for a very long time. We could see some pretty odd results and a possible existential crisis for Labour or Conservative (or both) in either scenario.
I don't think we are at a BAU situation if we leave. Though I think as a party we have no chance of ever being in power again if we don't.
The Conservatives have two routes to a longterm future from here. The first is to secure a form of Brexit, accepting that they will be throwing in their lot with a declining demographic and trusting to the effluxion of time. Frankly it doesn't look very good from here, not least because securing a form of Brexit looks unlikely from here.
The second is much more promising but requires a conspiracy of silence. It requires the Conservatives to lose power very quickly, before Brexit can be completed, and letting someone else pull the plug on the project.
I agree with the second point to some degree, I think losing an election on brexit and watching Labour pull the plug will probably mean we will be back within a few years, though I'm not sure what the party would look like.
Much, much smaller; and much, much less repulsive.
Tbh, that we're repulsive to the likes of you doesn't have me in the slightest bit concerned. I don't mean that as an insult, it just wouldn't make sense for us to appeal to your section of society just as it doesn't make sense for Labour to try and get my vote.
You don't need petrol to manufacture cars, you do need (a lot of) lithium.
Nevertheless, the places where lithium is, people are not. (I.e. Australian outback, Chilean and Argentinian deserts.)
If they do manage to get the lithium to the places where it can be used in manufacture, which needs a lot of it, how long will the deposits last? It sounds to me as though they should already be working on what will replace that form of power.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
I think in Europe it's fairly clear that the centre right shifts to the right when the traditional party gets usurped.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
What do centre-right non-Eurosceptics do though? It will be a much smaller and less electorally powerful party that would replace them. Given that the Farage coalition of buccaneering free marketers, I love the 1950s social conservatives and revolutionary Marxists won't survive any contact with an electoral programme, let alone government.
Agreed. Leaving the EU, with or without a deal, is only the beginning for Farage et al. They are quite literally revolutionaries. They won’t be happy until the streets are running with blood. They won’t even be happy then.
Actually I think Farage would be perfectly happy with being PM. No blood required if that condition is met.
What happens when there is a strong electoral push back against a) leaving the EU and b) Farage and his merry millionaires being ostensibly in charge of the clusterfuck? Whatever his (mysterious to me) qualities, being a gracious and philosophical loser doesn't strike me as being one of them.
I sometimes wonder if Trump really is educationally subnormal.
Sometimes you wonder?
I posted some time ago the remarks of H.L. Menken that one day the Americans would elect a moron. Unfortunately Trump thinks he is Einstein, St Augustine, and Jesus Christ rolled into one - and many Americans believe him.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
Depends how bad people think PM Corbyn will be in the meantime. Frankly the prospect is not that frightening with rank incompetence and a lack of care for anything other than Brexit purity (in fact more than purity given it goes beyond what most campaigned for) is the only thing that matters from the Tories.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
I think in Europe it's fairly clear that the centre right shifts to the right when the traditional party gets usurped.
That is certainly true in Italy where Lega Nord has overtaken Forza Italia, in Italy where National Rally has overtaken Les Republicains and Poland where Law and Justice has overtaken Civic Democracy or indeed Northern Ireland once the DUP overtook the UUP. It was the case in Canada too in 1993 when the Reform Party overtook the Progressive Conservatives (with the two eventually merging to form the current Conservative Party of Canada) and it would be the case here if the Brexit Party overtook the Tories
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
Depends how bad people think PM Corbyn will be in the meantime. Frankly the prospect is not that frightening with rank incompetence and a lack of care for anything other than Brexit purity (in fact more than purity given it goes beyond what most campaigned for) is the only thing that matters from the Tories.
If the Brexit Party overtook the Tories we could well get PM Farage in due course
Agreed. Leaving the EU, with or without a deal, is only the beginning for Farage et al. They are quite literally revolutionaries. They won’t be happy until the streets are running with blood. They won’t even be happy then.
Actually I think Farage would be perfectly happy with being PM. No blood required if that condition is met.
What happens when there is a strong electoral push back against a) leaving the EU and b) Farage and his merry millionaires being ostensibly in charge of the clusterfuck? Whatever his (mysterious to me) qualities, being a gracious and philosophical loser doesn't strike me as being one of them.
Farage doesn't want to leave the EU; he wants to dismantle the EU. If he became PM I think he'd just look for ways to consolidate power at the European level without leaving.
What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
Social democrats down, Venstre up, DF down, Radikale up, Enhedslisten up, Conservatives up - Mette Frederiksen will be new PM with a weak hand to play against her leftie bloc compadres.
Rasmus Paludan (imagine a fat Tommy Robinson) is in with a shout of getting elected as his Stram Kurs party are on the edge of the support necessary for a seat according to the DR exit poll
Yes, the Social Democrats have underperformed again just as they did in the European elections. There were polls showing them with 30% support and well over 50 seats but instead they've gone backwards on what was a dire 2015 performance.
The collapse of Folkeparti and the Liberal Alliance has left a vacuum which has mostly been filled by the left and centre-left with Radikale doing much better and SF making progress. With the Soc Dems and Enhedslisten they have a projected 90 seats and only need a couple more for an overall majority.
On the centre-right and right both Venstre and the Conservatives have done well but it's far from clear whether the New Right Party, Stram Kurs and the Christian Democrats will get into the Folketing. With a projected 4 seats - IF New Right fails it may be the centre left will get over the line.
The polling suggests a 53%-47% split more or less.
The New Right should squeeze in but the others won't. Mette F plans to lead a minority government with support from different sides depending on the issue.
Is it notable how these Tory leadership candidates keep insisting they will not 'call' a GE? Assuming for the moment they are using shorthand to suggest they would not call 'for' a GE in Parliament, they surely know a GE could happen whether they want it or not if they are brought down as a result of Brexit failure, so are they fooling MPs by promising not to 'call' one? https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1136328127817404416
The Remain-Leave division was created by Cameron and his idiotic decision to hold a referendum. It will now be with us for a generation, at least. A sad divide created unnecessarily by a dickhead who has now disappeared from view.
Both your language and post quality is deteriorating again.
This isn’t Twitter.
Are you the site administrator for the night again? Did you win a competition?
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels
You say those figures were for a Boris-Johnson-led Conservative party _campaigning_ _on_ _a_ _No_ _Deal_ _platform_?
I find that very difficult to believe.
Almost all the Boris gains in that poll come from the Brexit Party who are the strongest No Deal supporters
So what? If the Tories move to No Deal, they will lose voters who don't support No Deal, relative to the findings of that poll that didn't specify a policy.
Can they offset that by squeezing the Brexit party further down than the 13% the poll indicates? I doubt it, unless - as I said - Farage stands aside and endorses the Tories.
If the Tories suffer a net loss relative to those poll figures, and go down to say the mid-20s, I very much doubt they can win a general election.
On what grounds? That Tory rating was on the basis of a Boris led Tory Party reaching 29% and Boris has made clear we are leaving the EU Deal or No Deal without further extension.
Given Labour is on an abysmal 21% and only tied with the LDs on that poll with a Boris led Tory Party not impossible a Boris led Tory Party could win a majority under FPTP even on just mid to late 20s
You understand that if the Tories lose votes to other parties, the other parties go up as well as the Tories going down?
The Boris poll quite clearly shows the Tories pick up Brexit Party voters without losing any to the LDs or Labour, they have already gone
The Remain-Leave division was created by Cameron and his idiotic decision to hold a referendum. It will now be with us for a generation, at least. A sad divide created unnecessarily by a dickhead who has now disappeared from view.
Both your language and post quality is deteriorating again.
This isn’t Twitter.
Are you the site administrator for the night again? Did you win a competition?
No, but you got banned last time you went down this road.
What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.
I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
Tbh, that we're repulsive to the likes of you doesn't have me in the slightest bit concerned. I don't mean that as an insult, it just wouldn't make sense for us to appeal to your section of society just as it doesn't make sense for Labour to try and get my vote.
I'm confident Stuart can speak for himself, but as I recall he's very far from the socialist, green side of the SNP. Perhaps making assumptions about 'the likes of you' and 'sections of society' is one of the reasons the Cons and Lab are in such dire straits.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
I think in Europe it's fairly clear that the centre right shifts to the right when the traditional party gets usurped.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
I think in Europe it's fairly clear that the centre right shifts to the right when the traditional party gets usurped.
The evidence around Europe is that the right wing parties get eclipsed only when the centre parties actively do something to control immigration and cultural integration.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels
You say those figures were for a Boris-Johnson-led Conservative party _campaigning_ _on_ _a_ _No_ _Deal_ _platform_?
I find that very difficult to believe.
Almost all the Boris gains in that poll come from the Brexit Party who are the strongest No Deal supporters
So what? If the Tories move to No Deal, they will lose voters who don't support No Deal, relative to the findings of that poll that didn't specify a policy.
Can they offset that by squeezing the Brexit party further down than the 13% the poll indicates? I doubt it, unless - as I said - Farage stands aside and endorses the Tories.
If the Tories suffer a net loss relative to those poll figures, and go down to say the mid-20s, I very much doubt they can win a general election.
On what grounds? That Tory rating was on the basis of a Boris led Tory Party reaching 29% and Boris has made clear we are leaving the EU Deal or No Deal without further extension.
Given Labour is on an abysmal 21% and only tied with the LDs on that poll with a Boris led Tory Party not impossible a Boris led Tory Party could win a majority under FPTP even on just mid to late 20s
You understand that if the Tories lose votes to other parties, the other parties go up as well as the Tories going down?
The Boris poll quite clearly shows the Tories pick up Brexit Party voters without losing any to the LDs or Labour, they have already gone
They lose my vote to the LDs, but in fairness despite the toss of the coin giving them the vote in the Euros it would have taken something truly extraodinary to consider voting Tory at a GE a second time.
You don't need petrol to manufacture cars, you do need (a lot of) lithium.
Nevertheless, the places where lithium is, people are not. (I.e. Australian outback, Chilean and Argentinian deserts.)
If they do manage to get the lithium to the places where it can be used in manufacture, which needs a lot of it, how long will the deposits last? It sounds to me as though they should already be working on what will replace that form of power.
Good evening, everyone.
Lithium is not exactly rare - it’s 25th most abundant in the list of elements occurring in the earth’s crust. And we haven’t been looking for bulk deposits for very long, as up until now we’ve had a plentiful supply from the few known areas where it occurs in high concentrations in quantity.
Playing devil's advocate, does it matter much whether the Conservative party survives or goes under? Centre right eurosceptics will just find another party to represent them.
I think in Europe it's fairly clear that the centre right shifts to the right when the traditional party gets usurped.
That is certainly true in Italy where Lega Nord has overtaken Forza Italia, in Italy where National Rally has overtaken Les Republicains and Poland where Law and Justice has overtaken Civic Democracy or indeed Northern Ireland once the DUP overtook the UUP. It was the case in Canada too in 1993 when the Reform Party overtook the Progressive Conservatives (with the two eventually merging to form the current Conservative Party of Canada) and it would be the case here if the Brexit Party overtook the Tories
And in Scotland when the Conservative Party of England and Wales took over the Unionist Party of Scotland in 1965.
No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them. The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).
I disagree.
I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.
I think that's a very complacent view and you are underestimating how strongly some people people feel about Brexit. It will depend how Brexit actually plays out of course but if it does come to be generally viewed as a grave mistake it will be a long time before many former voters will forgive the Conservative party. I might be wrong but I suspect that you will be one of those who don't expect to be be personally inconvenienced if Brexit turns out to be an economic disaster.
Well I’d lose my job, my house would be worth less and my foundation wouldn’t have a professional services industry willing to rent it’s venue. But apart from that I wouldn’t be personally inconvenienced
What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.
I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
Doesn't that analysis suggest, amongst other things, that Boris might struggle to hold his West London seat?
I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.
No Hillingdon which contains Uxbridge voted Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections and Boris makes his biggest gains with Brexit Party voters in that Yougov poll yesterday
You seem to be rather glossing over the key calculation elements of by how much BXP won, who came second, and the effects of swinging 17% from BXP to Con - would that be enough for Con to come first, or just to let (say) the LDs through the middle.
Have you, in fact, dealt with these and are just summarising, or simply saying "BXP came first there on a heavily split vote, a chunk of that would go Con, therefore Boris is fine"?
The LDs got 12,000 votes in Hillingdon, the Brexit Party got 19% so a 17% swing would actually still see the Brexit Party win the seat.
However given at the general election in 2017 the LDs got just 3% and Boris got over 50% he would hold on even with the Tory voteshare down 13% and voteshare up 14% as YouGov suggested
What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.
I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
The Republicans are using a similar strategy in America where they are calling the Democrats anti semites.
It is amusing to get called anti semites by a pack of racists but it is essentially meaningless, the public has long shrugged off the smears, the only people who seem to believe them are those that don't like Corbyn for other reasons anyway. Like the Democrats in America we should rise above the xenophobes and bigots.
I decided to have a go at filling in the blanks as far as Tory leadership endorsements are concerned with an estimate of how the undeclared MPs might vote. These are the figures I came out with:
I couldn't think of any further supporters for Hancock, Harper, McVey, Leadsom or Gyimah, although in reality they'll probably pick up more votes. Also I've probably overestimated Johnson's total because I was tending to give him the votes of difficult to allocate MP on the basis that the frontrunner tends to do well with the undecided.
That looks about right to me.
Stewart might easily make it to the second round and, if he’s very lucky, perhaps even just survive it but he’d go no further.
Seems fairly clear who the top 4 will be. Where do we think the transfers will mostly go ? Stewart/Hancock/Gyimah voters (38) to Hunt or Gove, McVey/Leadsom (10) to Johnson or Raab, Javid split, Harper ? Hard to see Raab getting to the last 2 or Johnson not doing so, thus the only real uncertainty is Hunt/Gove. Laying Leadsom, still mysteriously third favourite at 10, seems like free money.
Tbh, that we're repulsive to the likes of you doesn't have me in the slightest bit concerned. I don't mean that as an insult, it just wouldn't make sense for us to appeal to your section of society just as it doesn't make sense for Labour to try and get my vote.
I'm confident Stuart can speak for himself, but as I recall he's very far from the socialist, green side of the SNP. Perhaps making assumptions about 'the likes of you' and 'sections of society' is one of the reasons the Cons and Lab are in such dire straits.
I didn't mean socialist, I meant separatist. What use would a unionist party be if it wasted time trying to attract the votes of people opposed to the Union?
What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.
I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.
Oh to not live in interesting times again
The Tories would be destroyed by the constant stream of evidence you see in left wing circles, with both sides though the accusation is that the other is creating or exaggerating the problem.
Bit rich to whine that it doesn't work on the Labour party when your party benefits from exactly the same thing.
The Remain-Leave division was created by Cameron and his idiotic decision to hold a referendum. It will now be with us for a generation, at least. A sad divide created unnecessarily by a dickhead who has now disappeared from view.
Both your language and post quality is deteriorating again.
This isn’t Twitter.
Are you the site administrator for the night again? Did you win a competition?
No, but you got banned last time you went down this road.
The Remain-Leave division was created by Cameron and his idiotic decision to hold a referendum. It will now be with us for a generation, at least. A sad divide created unnecessarily by a dickhead who has now disappeared from view.
Both your language and post quality is deteriorating again.
This isn’t Twitter.
I think the generally accepted way to describe Cameron is "twat".
As in:
“So what’s happened to that twat David Cameron who called it on.
“Let’s be fair.... How comes he can scuttle off? He called all this on. Yeah? Called it on.
“Where is he? He’s in Europe, in Nice, with his trotters up, yeah? Where is the geezer?
“I think he should be held to account for it. He should be held to account for it.
What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.
I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.
Oh to not live in interesting times again
The Tories would be destroyed by the constant stream of evidence you see in left wing circles, with both sides though the accusation is that the other is creating or exaggerating the problem.
Bit rich to whine that it doesn't work on the Labour party when your party benefits from exactly the same thing.
Corbyn holds the dubious honour of being the leader of only the second political party to be put under formal investigation for racism by the Equalities Commission. The first was, of course, the BNP.
This fact alone should be a matter of the deepest shame for the Labour leadership and membership.
Rather than lash out McDonnell would do well to reflect on why a party which claims to be anti-racist has ended up in this position.
Corbyn holds the dubious honour of being the leader of only the second political party to be put under formal investigation for racism by the Equalities Commission. The first was, of course, the BNP.
This fact alone should be a matter of the deepest shame for the Labour leadership and membership.
Rather than lash out McDonnell would do well to reflect on why a party which claims to be anti-racist has ended up in this position.
Seems a dubious claim to racism as UKIP has not been investigated by them. It leads me to believe it is on the basis of active complaining and people campaigning to get it to happen, which is why UKIP hasn't had it.
Plenty of people complaining and campaigning against Labour, funny thing it the discipline system was exactly the same before but they didn't have a problem with it then, although they didn't try and break it then by complaining that a Jewish woman had made a pun using the word Jew for example. The EHRC aren't going to find Labour guilty of treating Jewish people differently.
So the deep shame will consist of a complaints system that Corbyn didn't improve when he took over.
What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.
I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
The Republicans are using a similar strategy in America where they are calling the Democrats anti semites.
It is amusing to get called anti semites by a pack of racists but it is essentially meaningless, the public has long shrugged off the smears, the only people who seem to believe them are those that don't like Corbyn for other reasons anyway. Like the Democrats in America we should rise above the xenophobes and bigots.
Er the last thing anyone should do is copy the Democrats in the US. They are a mess at the minute.
Comments
Stewart might easily make it to the second round and, if he’s very lucky, perhaps even just survive it but he’d go no further.
Trump, on all available evidence, is a genius. The rest of us aren't.
Sort of weird.
And there seems to be feverish reporting that our trade is going to be just dandy after all because Trump'll fix it ( provided we abase the health service further and maybe accept chlorinated chicken).
We're getting hysterical.
More to the point from our point of view is that it’s not particularly attractive to invest billions in a major manufacturing plant to export from a country which might be about to be subject to tariffs from its biggest export market.
Brexit is exceptionally ill timed for UK motor manufacturing.
Nonetheless though there's something about Trump that somehow delivers. I think he's a berk of the first order. His success and my judgement cannot both be true.
Indeed it is john, indeed it is.
As in:
“So what’s happened to that twat David Cameron who called it on.
“Let’s be fair.... How comes he can scuttle off? He called all this on. Yeah? Called it on.
“Where is he? He’s in Europe, in Nice, with his trotters up, yeah? Where is the geezer?
“I think he should be held to account for it. He should be held to account for it.
“Twat”.
Good evening, everyone.
What happens when there is a strong electoral push back against a) leaving the EU and b) Farage and his merry millionaires being ostensibly in charge of the clusterfuck? Whatever his (mysterious to me) qualities, being a gracious and philosophical loser doesn't strike me as being one of them.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1136328127817404416
Do you want to be again?
Take the advice.
I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
I'm confident Stuart can speak for himself, but as I recall he's very far from the socialist, green side of the SNP. Perhaps making assumptions about 'the likes of you' and 'sections of society' is one of the reasons the Cons and Lab are in such dire straits.
NEW THREAD
If we need it, we’ll find plenty more.
Oh to not live in interesting times again
However given at the general election in 2017 the LDs got just 3% and Boris got over 50% he would hold on even with the Tory voteshare down 13% and voteshare up 14% as YouGov suggested
It is amusing to get called anti semites by a pack of racists but it is essentially meaningless, the public has long shrugged off the smears, the only people who seem to believe them are those that don't like Corbyn for other reasons anyway. Like the Democrats in America we should rise above the xenophobes and bigots.
Bit rich to whine that it doesn't work on the Labour party when your party benefits from exactly the same thing.
I have used the wrong terminology.
A banning offence in the eyes of Casino Royale!
This fact alone should be a matter of the deepest shame for the Labour leadership and membership.
Rather than lash out McDonnell would do well to reflect on why a party which claims to be anti-racist has ended up in this position.
Oh - and if you want to do the usual whatabout-the-Tories etc don't do that with me. I've written a thread header on the Tories' problems with anti-Muslim prejudice - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
Plenty of people complaining and campaigning against Labour, funny thing it the discipline system was exactly the same before but they didn't have a problem with it then, although they didn't try and break it then by complaining that a Jewish woman had made a pun using the word Jew for example. The EHRC aren't going to find Labour guilty of treating Jewish people differently.
So the deep shame will consist of a complaints system that Corbyn didn't improve when he took over.
Deep shame for sure....