We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
No, a constitutional fact.
If the executive does not put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and the Commons cannot pass an amendmemt too it then there is nothing to stop the executive pursuing No Deal.
Plus of course Macron is increasingly likely to veto any further extension beyond October anyway unless for EUref2 in which case it would then be No Deal or revoke if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then
Leavers before 2016: the European Parliament cannot initiate legislation and is therefore a pretendy parliament Leavers since 2016: the UK Parliament cannot initiate legislation to stop Brexit and we will prorogue it if they try.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
You can just bet that "Get shit done" has been brainstormed and focus grouped by a paid adviser to see if it flies the way Bollocks to Brexit flew. No adult naturally says "get shit done" rather than things or stuff done in that sort of context.
The paid adviser, one can only assume, is David Brent.
But presumably they broke for leave by a substantial margin given their dying off means there are now more remain voters alive today.
By contrast, I reckon that is why we haven't seen any kind of significant demographic shift towards Remain, The very old aren't much more Leavey than the young. Most information treats 65+ as one group. If you are 65, you have as much in common with a 35 yo as a 95yo.
Just utterly hideous. In my professional experience, people who use corporate buzz phrases like 'get shit done' are usually hopeless at actually doing things. I'm sure he's nice to animals and I don't wish him harm, but please for the love of God get him off my screen and out of the running to be Prime flipping MINISTER.
You can just bet that "Get shit done" has been brainstormed and focus grouped by a paid adviser to see if it flies the way Bollocks to Brexit flew. No adult naturally says "get shit done" rather than things or stuff done in that sort of context.
"Get shit done" is definitely in the vernacular somewhere. See, for example, LSG on Ravelry.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Frankly I think it is disgusting, I actually think people are mentally ill who still support Brexit despite been proved utterly wrong by what is happening. The population were sold a load of bullshit that our economic prospects would be better outside the European union. It does not look this way to me. This is before one takes into account the illegitimate financing of vote Leave and the lies about what the UK pays into the Eu, the money for the health service and the utter rubbish about immigration. Yet still we are told we must commit economic suicide...
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?
Having fallen into the classic trap of laying others once I'd specifically deposited to oppose the crazy Leadsom price, my joint book (both markets) is around:
Social democrats down, Venstre up, DF down, Radikale up, Enhedslisten up, Conservatives up - Mette Frederiksen will be new PM with a weak hand to play against her leftie bloc compadres.
Rasmus Paludan (imagine a fat Tommy Robinson) is in with a shout of getting elected as his Stram Kurs party are on the edge of the support necessary for a seat according to the DR exit poll
Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Essentially, like a divorcing party taking all the good records, Remain have claimed all young, fresh, dynamic people, but now that we've been reminded of some old people who were quite good and beat Hitler and stuff, they'll have those too. Best not to bring facts into the discussion.
Is it my fault the Leavers are clutching their copies of "Chinese Democracy" and "Tiptoe thru the Tulips" to their chest whilst screaming "Agadoo doo doo push pineapple World War Three!!!" at the top of their voices?
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
But presumably they broke for leave by a substantial margin given their dying off means there are now more remain voters alive today.
By contrast, I reckon that is why we haven't seen any kind of significant demographic shift towards Remain, The very old aren't much more Leavey than the young. Most information treats 65+ as one group. If you are 65, you have as much in common with a 35 yo as a 95yo.
That's interesting, I'd assumed that it was a given that leavers were dying off. That seems to have been the mantra.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Frankly I think it is disgusting, I actually think people are mentally ill who still support Brexit despite been proved utterly wrong by what is happening. The population were sold a load of bullshit that our economic prospects would be better outside the European union. It does not look this way to me. This is before one takes into account the illegitimate financing of vote Leave and the lies about what the UK pays into the Eu, the money for the health service and the utter rubbish about immigration. Yet still we are told we must commit economic suicide...
Immigration from the EU is down since the referendum, the economy is still growing, unemployment is still down, May has promised the NHS billions more each year etc
Falconer says this is crap. Courts would block it.
Unless an amendment is attached again to a resubmitted Withdrawal Agreement there is little the Commons can do to stop the PM pursuing No Deal anyway
Another HY prediction destined for the bin, believe in it or not. The bin, that is. Believe in the bin.
No, a constitutional fact.
If the executive does not put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and the Commons cannot pass an amendmemt too it then there is nothing to stop the executive pursuing No Deal.
Plus of course Macron is increasingly likely to veto any further extension beyond October anyway unless for EUref2 in which case it would then be No Deal or revoke if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then
Which sources are giving you your Macron insight?
Macron said October 31st was the 'Final, final deadline' for the UK to back the Deal this week and he would not allow a further extension as he did not want the new commission to have to deal with it
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Frankly I think it is disgusting, I actually think people are mentally ill who still support Brexit despite been proved utterly wrong by what is happening. The population were sold a load of bullshit that our economic prospects would be better outside the European union. It does not look this way to me. This is before one takes into account the illegitimate financing of vote Leave and the lies about what the UK pays into the Eu, the money for the health service and the utter rubbish about immigration. Yet still we are told we must commit economic suicide...
Immigration from the EU is down since the referendum, the economy is still growing, unemployment is still down, May has promised the NHS billions more each year etc
Well that's alright then! Losing quality well paid jobs so we can all flip burgers for each other is economic genius!
I'm reading Peter Hitchen's latest book "The Phoney Victory: The World War II Illusion". It pours cold water on most of the most cherished "myths" that people hold about the war.
don't tell me. bletchley park didn't shorten the war by 2 years?
Exactly right.
Hitchens believes that - by allowing the Allies to win - Bletchley Park lengthed the war, increased the amount of human suffering and led inevitably to such abominations as the permissive society.
Hindsight, Shmindsight.
For a good and topical WW2 book Beevor's "D Day" is excellent. With what I now recognise as appalling naivety I vaguely thought that the Battle of Normandy, fought in Western Europe by civilised Westerners, might have been a bit lighter on atrocities than battles taking place East of Suez. The book corrects that error.
Haven't read it yet, but assume it's relatively even handed re. savagery. There's an understandable concentration on Malmedy, SS bastards etc, but I get the impression everyone was at the take no prisoners lark, the Canadians being particularly naughty.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton! Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
It's perfectly reasonable to argue that Brexit would have been less likely if Corbyn had campaigned actively against it, which as Labour Leader I think he should have. When the show trials start, I reckon he'll be in the second batch - not the most obviously culpable, but bearing a fair measure of responsibility nevertheless.
Thanks for this. It would be interesting to see the corresponding analysis for Remain and the Lib Dems and/or Greens.
I think the thing I take away from this is that ethnic minority voters are the most loyal to Labour but I guess a fair number were not so loyal as to vote Remain in 2016.
Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
lol - Brexiteers whistling with their fingers in their ears about economic impacts of their precious Brexit! One can always counter point to closures in the past but I am talking about the future and commercial organisations seem to be giving Global Britain a thumbs down.
Honestly, with regard to Immigration I am well aware that it has decreased from other EU countries. However, more immigrants have come from elsewhere in the world as they will do in ever greater numbers if Brexit is executed. I am sure those who voted Leave about Immigration will see the immigrants from the rest of the world as being as unwelcome as those from the EU. Brexit is not going to solve anything but it will create more division, hardship and ultimately less democratic engagement when the 'voters and enablers of Brexit' realise they have been used...
Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
It's perfectly reasonable to argue that Brexit would have been less likely if Corbyn had campaigned actively against it, which as Labour Leader I think he should have. When the show trials start, I reckon he'll be in the second batch - not the most obviously culpable, but bearing a fair measure of responsibility nevertheless.
Corbyn did actively campaign against it, the accusation that it is his fault for not campaigning hard enough is sour grapes from those who lost and want to blame Corbyn for it
Social democrats down, Venstre up, DF down, Radikale up, Enhedslisten up, Conservatives up - Mette Frederiksen will be new PM with a weak hand to play against her leftie bloc compadres.
Rasmus Paludan (imagine a fat Tommy Robinson) is in with a shout of getting elected as his Stram Kurs party are on the edge of the support necessary for a seat according to the DR exit poll
Yes, the Social Democrats have underperformed again just as they did in the European elections. There were polls showing them with 30% support and well over 50 seats but instead they've gone backwards on what was a dire 2015 performance.
The collapse of Folkeparti and the Liberal Alliance has left a vacuum which has mostly been filled by the left and centre-left with Radikale doing much better and SF making progress. With the Soc Dems and Enhedslisten they have a projected 90 seats and only need a couple more for an overall majority.
On the centre-right and right both Venstre and the Conservatives have done well but it's far from clear whether the New Right Party, Stram Kurs and the Christian Democrats will get into the Folketing. With a projected 4 seats - IF New Right fails it may be the centre left will get over the line.
The polling suggests a 53%-47% split more or less.
Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
Doesn't that analysis suggest, amongst other things, that Boris might struggle to hold his West London seat?
I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton! Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!
(Edit: duplicate removed)
Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
Doesn't that analysis suggest, amongst other things, that Boris might struggle to hold his West London seat?
I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.
I think tactical voting could screw Boris in the next GE on a much higher turnout in his seat.
They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.
God, I'd have to vote LibDem.
Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
At some point hopefully in the not too distant future a party of the centre right has to emerge and take up the mantle. In Spain it increasingly looks as if Ciudadanos may be replacing PP. Unfortunately the Lds in the UK are way too left-wing for most centre-right voters except on the one issue.
Yes, Rory is the man to lead it!
Could happen really quickly if we had PR, otherwise we're stuck with 'main' parties containing factions that hate each other.
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
It's perfectly reasonable to argue that Brexit would have been less likely if Corbyn had campaigned actively against it, which as Labour Leader I think he should have. When the show trials start, I reckon he'll be in the second batch - not the most obviously culpable, but bearing a fair measure of responsibility nevertheless.
Corbyn did actively campaign against it, the accusation that it is his fault for not campaigning hard enough is sour grapes from those who lost and want to blame Corbyn for it
Well that wouldn't be me mate. I call it how I see it.
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
Doesn't that analysis suggest, amongst other things, that Boris might struggle to hold his West London seat?
I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.
I think tactical voting could screw Boris in the next GE on a much higher turnout in his seat.
It would be funny if both the Tory leader and the Labour leader (also possible on EU results) lost their seats.
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
My guess is a combination of both effects, it was pretty clear from turnout differentials and the Ashcroft survey that turnout among C2s, the most Brexity group, particularly underperformed.
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
Voted Conservative at the last election?
Alun Cairns is a good local MP, but why would I vote for someone who like the good Tory lap dog he is support any form of Tory Brexit, however hard?
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
It's perfectly reasonable to argue that Brexit would have been less likely if Corbyn had campaigned actively against it, which as Labour Leader I think he should have. When the show trials start, I reckon he'll be in the second batch - not the most obviously culpable, but bearing a fair measure of responsibility nevertheless.
Corbyn did actively campaign against it, the accusation that it is his fault for not campaigning hard enough is sour grapes from those who lost and want to blame Corbyn for it
Well that wouldn't be me mate. I call it how I see it.
Presumably your annoyed at the rest of the Labour party who did even less then?
Alan Johnson was head of Labours remain campaign... who knew?
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
My guess is a combination of both effects, it was pretty clear from turnout differentials and the Ashcroft survey that turnout among C1s, the most Brexity group, particularly underperformed.
C1s were not the most Brexity group, they were tied Remain and Leave, the most Brexity groups were C2s and DEs
Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels
You say those figures were for a Boris-Johnson-led Conservative party _campaigning_ _on_ _a_ _No_ _Deal_ _platform_?
I find that very difficult to believe.
I know it's hypothetical polling but those figures look plausible.
We can take Brexit Party support as ~ 20% and the tribal loyalty support of the Tories at around 20% too at the moment using Hunt, Gove, Javid as a baseline. Around 7% of the Brexit party support shifting over to Boris in the belief he will (I personally don't think he will) deliver a no deal (In fact probably any sort will probably work) Brexit is plausible. Like it or not, and there are plenty on this site that don't like him (I'm not a fan personally) he's seen as a winner and that counts for plenty.
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
Doesn't that analysis suggest, amongst other things, that Boris might struggle to hold his West London seat?
I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.
No Hillingdon which contains Uxbridge voted Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections and Boris makes his biggest gains with Brexit Party voters in that Yougov poll yesterday
Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
Doesn't that analysis suggest, amongst other things, that Boris might struggle to hold his West London seat?
I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.
I think tactical voting could screw Boris in the next GE on a much higher turnout in his seat.
Surely bump someone up to the Lords from a safe seat and Bob's your uncle Boris remains PM.
Leavers with BaME heritage aren't voting for the Brexit party and are sticking with Labour.
My guess is a combination of both effects, it was pretty clear from turnout differentials and the Ashcroft survey that turnout among C1s, the most Brexity group, particularly underperformed.
C1s were not the most Brexity group, they were tied Remain and Leave, the most Brexity groups were C2s and DEs
Sorry, I meant C2s. In polling they tend to be more Brexity than DE, which is more tribally Labour. The fact that their Leave/Remain split was similar in the Ashcroft survey suggests it was particularly C2 Leavers that didn’t bother to turn up.
Mark Drakeford's incumbency as First Minister hits another low, just a day after one thought the pathetic Corbyn apologist could sink no lower. Today he has presided over the Ford Motor Company announcing the closure of the Bridgend engine plant.
This is more likely as a result of Brexit than the first minister!
Drakeford's ineptitude is quite something. I don't disagree that Brexit could be an issue. The Brexit fiasco has in no small measure been masterminded by Drakeford's boss Corbyn.
It's quite something to blame Brexit on Corbyn as a Conservative. Maybe try looking closer to home...
Not a Conservative, but a Blairite which I guess is worse.
It's perfectly reasonable to argue that Brexit would have been less likely if Corbyn had campaigned actively against it, which as Labour Leader I think he should have. When the show trials start, I reckon he'll be in the second batch - not the most obviously culpable, but bearing a fair measure of responsibility nevertheless.
Corbyn did actively campaign against it, the accusation that it is his fault for not campaigning hard enough is sour grapes from those who lost and want to blame Corbyn for it
Well that wouldn't be me mate. I call it how I see it.
Presumably your annoyed at the rest of the Labour party who did even less then?
Alan Johnson was head of Labours remain campaign... who knew?
You are wrong. I had him down at the time as a diffident Remainer who would campaign actively on behalf of the people he represents. I was wrong, on all available evidence.
If I am annoyed with anybody, it is with myself for allowing myself to be taken for for a sucker.
So he's the bend over to BXP candidate, Boris is the pretend he won't bend over to BXP candidate, Gove and Hunt are the pretend they won't extend candidate, Rory is the do the same old stuff canddiate and McVey is the frothing at the mouth candidate.
Social democrats down, Venstre up, DF down, Radikale up, Enhedslisten up, Conservatives up - Mette Frederiksen will be new PM with a weak hand to play against her leftie bloc compadres.
Rasmus Paludan (imagine a fat Tommy Robinson) is in with a shout of getting elected as his Stram Kurs party are on the edge of the support necessary for a seat according to the DR exit poll
Yes, the Social Democrats have underperformed again just as they did in the European elections. There were polls showing them with 30% support and well over 50 seats but instead they've gone backwards on what was a dire 2015 performance.
The collapse of Folkeparti and the Liberal Alliance has left a vacuum which has mostly been filled by the left and centre-left with Radikale doing much better and SF making progress. With the Soc Dems and Enhedslisten they have a projected 90 seats and only need a couple more for an overall majority.
On the centre-right and right both Venstre and the Conservatives have done well but it's far from clear whether the New Right Party, Stram Kurs and the Christian Democrats will get into the Folketing. With a projected 4 seats - IF New Right fails it may be the centre left will get over the line.
The polling suggests a 53%-47% split more or less.
Looks like even in Denmark the polls have overestimated the main centre left party just as they did in Australia, just as they did with Hillary, just as they did here in 2015 etc
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton! Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!
(Edit: duplicate removed)
Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry
Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
Thought it was all the fault of the Welsh Assembly...maybe this is trickier than at first glance.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton! Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!
(Edit: duplicate removed)
Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry
Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
Thought it was all the fault of the Welsh Assembly...maybe this is trickier than at first glance.
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
We were told by Brexiteers that companies would just carry on as usual after Brexit. It looks like Brexiteers have been proved wrong again and yet the stupid nutters insist that we go ahead with Brexit despite the pain:
Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton! Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!
(Edit: duplicate removed)
Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry
Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
All correct, but also with the Ford South Wales plant the major output was for JLR and when JLR built their own engine plant in Wolverhampton the fate of the Ford plant was sealed. The jobs in effect moved for South Wales to Wolverhampton.
Also around Europe because Ford can not make a profit or much of one in the good times, 4,600 jobs gone in Germany and a Gearbox JV had been closed in France. Opel and VW has announced job losses in Germany as well.
You cannot win back both, only way to win back Tories who have defected to the LDs is to promise EUref2 or revoke Article 50, only way to win back voters who voted Brexit Party is to deliver Brexit.
Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and only 12% voted LD do on a forced choice it is clear which way the Tories must go
I expect Penny Mordaunt to declare over the weekend. She has been very much involved in the D-Day celebrations and it would have looked a bit tacky to be seen in that role as a candidate.
Boris makes no indent whatsoever on Labour or LibDem or Green support. His former ‘liberal views’ and London-winning ways are very clearly dead, post-2016. He only derives his advantage in that poll from denting BXP support. And that, very quickly, will come to depend on what he would achieve, not what he would promise. If Boris fails, as is quite likely given the Tories queuing to defect the minute he is chosen, that poll finding will be worth nothing.
Boris could easily call a snap general election on a No Deal platform if needed if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by October, win a majority on that poll, then implement Brexit
Perhaps he could win a No Deal election if Farage stood aside and endorsed the Tories. If not, it could be suicidal.
Nope, as I posted earlier a Boris led Tories would have a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs, enough for a majority, with the Brexit Party falling back to UKIP 2015 levels
You say those figures were for a Boris-Johnson-led Conservative party _campaigning_ _on_ _a_ _No_ _Deal_ _platform_?
I find that very difficult to believe.
I know it's hypothetical polling but those figures look plausible.
We can take Brexit Party support as ~ 20% and the tribal loyalty support of the Tories at around 20% too at the moment using Hunt, Gove, Javid as a baseline. Around 7% of the Brexit party support shifting over to Boris in the belief he will (I personally don't think he will) deliver a no deal (In fact probably any sort will probably work) Brexit is plausible. Like it or not, and there are plenty on this site that don't like him (I'm not a fan personally) he's seen as a winner and that counts for plenty.
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says
All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.
They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says
All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.
They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.
But when an owner like Honda says that its decision is not particularly to do with Brexit that’s to be taken as gospel. Right...
I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.
No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them. The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
Tell us how it is Brexit then.
Show all workings.
When you’re choosing where to retain business, why on earth would you keep it in a place where the current party of government is entertaining choosing a man whose motto is Fuck Business?
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
Remainers don't accept that our economic decline has been due to our membership of the EU. You know there will be example showing that they're 'linked'.
I'd not suggest for a moment that you're wrong, but a decline in our steel industry is hardly new.
It is just the weather.
(I'm not actually making this argument, because I actually hope its wrong. But for example you could say that the greater the involvement of the people in british politics the relatively poorer we've become)
Gove is living in a fantasy world if he thinks they can get both back.
More likely they'll get neither.
Certainly possible, but while I think it is still a path to losing, only losing less, to focus purely on the Brexit voters, as they are the largest part of Tory member and voter support I can understand going for them. Thinking they can please both sides, or not piss off either side a lot, is one reason May faced such problems of her own making
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
Tell us how it is Brexit then.
Show all workings.
When you’re choosing where to retain business, why on earth would you keep it in a place where the current party of government is entertaining choosing a man whose motto is Fuck Business?
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says
All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.
They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.
But when an owner like Honda says that its decision is not particularly to do with Brexit that’s to be taken as gospel. Right...
I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.
I’m more trusting of Honda than Greybull - and you should be too.
In any event, an affirmative claim like Greybull’s is made to further an agenda. What does Honda gain from saying it wasn’t particularly Brexit related?
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says
All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.
They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.
But when an owner like Honda says that its decision is not particularly to do with Brexit that’s to be taken as gospel. Right...
I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.
I’m more trusting of Honda than Greybull - and you should be too.
In any event, an affirmative claim like Greybull’s is made to further an agenda. What does Honda gain from saying it wasn’t particularly Brexit related?
Not losing sales from Brexit nutjobs. Isn’t that obvious?
No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them. The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).
I disagree.
I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
Tell us how it is Brexit then.
Show all workings.
When you’re choosing where to retain business, why on earth would you keep it in a place where the current party of government is entertaining choosing a man whose motto is Fuck Business?
Gove is living in a fantasy world if he thinks they can get both back.
More likely they'll get neither.
Certainly possible, but while I think it is still a path to losing, only losing less, to focus purely on the Brexit voters, as they are the largest part of Tory member and voter support I can understand going for them. Thinking they can please both sides, or not piss off either side a lot, is one reason May faced such problems of her own making
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
Tell us how it is Brexit then.
Show all workings.
Maybe just in time deliveries held up at borders for days and duty on components in and out of the UK at several points of the production process could be tiresome.
Nonetheless I am still happier to blame Drakeford and Corbyn! Muppets'
A hard Brexit could probably get back plenty of BXP voters (& Some would return to Labour too) but give up a big chunk to the Lib Dems. On a FPTP basis it could lead to useless votes being piled up in the Northeast for instance whilst Labour take a slew of southern towns like Milton Keynes.
No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them. The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).
I disagree.
I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says
All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.
They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.
But when an owner like Honda says that its decision is not particularly to do with Brexit that’s to be taken as gospel. Right...
I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.
I’m more trusting of Honda than Greybull - and you should be too.
In any event, an affirmative claim like Greybull’s is made to further an agenda. What does Honda gain from saying it wasn’t particularly Brexit related?
Not losing sales from Brexit nutjobs. Isn’t that obvious?
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
It seems to me that Brexit can hardly have come at a worse time for car manufacturers. They are just beginning a massive switch to electric vehicle production, which will surely require huge investment in new plant and the development of new supplier networks. The uncertainty posed by Brexit is bound to be a factor in dissuading such investment in the UK. So it is not so much the closure of old plants that we need to worry about, rather the potential failure to upgrade plants or open new plants. Brexit is an existential threat to the British car industry.
I expect Penny Mordaunt to declare over the weekend. She has been very much involved in the D-Day celebrations and it would have looked a bit tacky to be seen in that role as a candidate.
Like that idea. It implies that she is not utterly devoid of integrity. Yes, I like that idea very much.
A hard Brexit could probably get back plenty of BXP voters (& Some would return to Labour too) but give up a big chunk to the Lib Dems. On a FPTP basis it could lead to useless votes being piled up in the Northeast for instance whilst Labour take a slew of southern towns like Milton Keynes.
Given that Leavers don’t accept that the collapse of British Steel was down to Brexit even after the owners’ official statement blamed Brexit, you can’t expect them to accept that the closure of another car manufacturing plant was because of Brexit.
It must just be the weather.
To be fair you shouldn’t believe anything that Greybull says
All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.
They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.
But when an owner like Honda says that its decision is not particularly to do with Brexit that’s to be taken as gospel. Right...
I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.
I’m more trusting of Honda than Greybull - and you should be too.
In any event, an affirmative claim like Greybull’s is made to further an agenda. What does Honda gain from saying it wasn’t particularly Brexit related?
Not losing sales from Brexit nutjobs. Isn’t that obvious?
No sort of Brexit deal will get Lib Dem voters back. They wouldn't even return with an offer of eternal transition, the symbolism of leaving is too much for them. The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).
I disagree.
I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.
I suggest that rather depends on how Brexit (should it transpire) actually turns out for us all?
Comments
Leavers since 2016: the UK Parliament cannot initiate legislation to stop Brexit and we will prorogue it if they try.
Brexit is the final straw for many companies .
The very old aren't much more Leavey than the young. Most information treats 65+ as one group. If you are 65, you have as much in common with a 35 yo as a 95yo.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/mordaunts-conference-call-with-tory-activists-suggests-she-is-still-considering-running-but-she-must-decide-soon.html
Rasmus Paludan (imagine a fat Tommy Robinson) is in with a shout of getting elected as his Stram Kurs party are on the edge of the support necessary for a seat according to the DR exit poll
Do he and the BBC have no shame?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9216865/emmanuel-macron-brexit-final-deadline/
https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1136318700317945856?s=21
So they are carrying on as mornal
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/car-giant-ford-closes-last-uk-plant-announcing-dagenham-job-loses-8226947.html
Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!
(Edit: duplicate removed)
I think the thing I take away from this is that ethnic minority voters are the most loyal to Labour but I guess a fair number were not so loyal as to vote Remain in 2016.
Honestly, with regard to Immigration I am well aware that it has decreased from other EU countries. However, more immigrants have come from elsewhere in the world as they will do in ever greater numbers if Brexit is executed. I am sure those who voted Leave about Immigration will see the immigrants from the rest of the world as being as unwelcome as those from the EU. Brexit is not going to solve anything but it will create more division, hardship and ultimately less democratic engagement when the 'voters and enablers of Brexit' realise they have been used...
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
There were some veterans being flown over to do a tandem parachute jump over Normandy.
Great day.
The collapse of Folkeparti and the Liberal Alliance has left a vacuum which has mostly been filled by the left and centre-left with Radikale doing much better and SF making progress. With the Soc Dems and Enhedslisten they have a projected 90 seats and only need a couple more for an overall majority.
On the centre-right and right both Venstre and the Conservatives have done well but it's far from clear whether the New Right Party, Stram Kurs and the Christian Democrats will get into the Folketing. With a projected 4 seats - IF New Right fails it may be the centre left will get over the line.
The polling suggests a 53%-47% split more or less.
I find that very difficult to believe.
I seem to recall suggesting before that he might have problems but got poo-pooed. Not convinced I'm wrong though. Don't forget too that there are some Londoners who recall him being a very pro-Remain Mayor. That won't help him.
Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
Alan Johnson was head of Labours remain campaign... who knew?
We can take Brexit Party support as ~ 20% and the tribal loyalty support of the Tories at around 20% too at the moment using Hunt, Gove, Javid as a baseline.
Around 7% of the Brexit party support shifting over to Boris in the belief he will (I personally don't think he will) deliver a no deal (In fact probably any sort will probably work) Brexit is plausible. Like it or not, and there are plenty on this site that don't like him (I'm not a fan personally) he's seen as a winner and that counts for plenty.
Patrick Gordon Walker anyone?
If I am annoyed with anybody, it is with myself for allowing myself to be taken for for a sucker.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1136345510778941442?s=21
It must just be the weather.
Also around Europe because Ford can not make a profit or much of one in the good times, 4,600 jobs gone in Germany and a Gearbox JV had been closed in France. Opel and VW has announced job losses in Germany as well.
As you say it is all to do with brexit.
Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and only 12% voted LD do on a forced choice it is clear which way the Tories must go
All of their statements are designed to maximise the profit they can make.
They basically tried to use Brexit to blackmail the government.
Show all workings.
I wish some Leavers would acknowledge there are downsides to Brexit. Patrick Minford saw it as the death knell for UK manufacturing but he saw that as a price worth paying. Far too many Leavers won’t accept there’s a price to pay at all, in defiance of all available evidence.
The best way through is a soft Brexit to hold onto existing Tories and take back some of the softer element of Brexit Party support (There will be soft brexiters in their mix).
I'd not suggest for a moment that you're wrong, but a decline in our steel industry is hardly new.
It is just the weather.
(I'm not actually making this argument, because I actually hope its wrong. But for example you could say that the greater the involvement of the people in british politics the relatively poorer we've become)
In any event, an affirmative claim like Greybull’s is made to further an agenda. What does Honda gain from saying it wasn’t particularly Brexit related?
I think that Tory Remainers are voting LibDem because they believe they can kill Brexit. If they can’t then they will come back over time as pocket book concerns come to the fore.
Nonetheless I am still happier to blame Drakeford and Corbyn! Muppets'