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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – The False Favourite for the Tory leadership

135

Comments

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,286
    > @Benpointer said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
    >
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    >
    > >
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    > > >
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    > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
    >
    > >
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    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Except it's not just a one month fall:
    >
    >
    >
    > The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.
    >
    >
    >
    > Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.
    >
    >
    >
    > At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.
    >
    > "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.

    Depends how old you are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,030
    HYUFD said:

    Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway.

    Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull

    You have quite a view of the "party base". I am a member of the party base and I despise arseholes, of which Boris is undoubtedly one.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,924
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > What is revealing about student debt is how few Conservatives wish to discuss it - not just the politicians but also people who normally defend anything the Conservatives do.
    > >
    > > They really shat the bed on this issue.
    > >
    > > But wishing it would go away wont help when each year you're forcing another tranche of students into that bed.
    >
    > The Government review today does at least promise to cut fees to £7500 and restore the maintenance grant for poorer students
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474

    Cutting the fees in the way proposed is smoke and mirrors, poorer students will pay much much more.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2019/05/editorial-comment--the-augar-report-heralds-the-end-of-student--/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,744
    The proportion of low paid adults in the UK is the lowest since 1980, helped by minimum wage rises and the National Living Wage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48446811
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Might help explain the SCon Euro election result.

    Best Tory result in the UK you mean?

    No wonder the Zoomers are scared of her...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,771
    edited May 2019

    > @Benpointer said:

    > > @Benpointer said:

    >

    > > > @Scott_P said:

    >

    > >

    >

    > > >



    >

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Except it's not just a one month fall:

    >

    >

    >

    > The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.

    >

    >

    >

    > Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.

    >

    >

    >

    > At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.

    >

    > "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.



    I think we will see motorway driving automated for most drivers within a generation. But yes, difficult to see cars in central London being the same.
    Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...

    The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,030
    But I think the question has been answered that was posed a few days ago, namely that sufficient Cons MPs would vote against a no deal govt in a vonc such as to if not prevent no deal, then certainly give Lab the opportunity to commit to a 2nd Ref (on the assumption that they couldn't form a govt within the statutory 14 days) and perhaps sweep up like minded souls but in any case commit to no deal.

    Jeez Louise if that meant that a vote for the LDs at that GE with Leadsom on one side and Corbyn on the other then so be it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,924
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Freggles said:
    > > Boris could be a Romney - the electorate gives everyone else a good look in the hope of an alternative, but ultimately he is the last man standing
    >
    > Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway.
    >
    > Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull

    Nothing to do with Romney being up against Obama, the most popular American president of recent times, and Trump against Hilary, a tie between the two least popular presidential candidates of recent times. Obama would have thrashed Trump and Romney would have comfortably beaten Hilary.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,971
    > @StuartDickson said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > @JohnLoony said:
    > > > Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
    > >
    > >
    > > Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party.
    > > A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila.
    >
    > Last decent Tory leader, in fact the only decent Tory leader of my adult lifetime, was John Major. He did surprisingly well in Scotland. Scots tend to value integrity, quiet competence and dutifulness. I can’t wait to see the Scottish VI breaks if Boris, Gove or Raab take over.
    >
    >

    For all the midge bites at this time of year at least the Scots have it in their hands to extricate themselves from a Boris Prime Ministership. The English have to look for Irish relatives.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,924
    > @HYUFD said:
    > The proportion of low paid adults in the UK is the lowest since 1980, helped by minimum wage rises and the National Living Wage
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48446811

    That is good work from the government!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,052
    Morning all :)

    As a non-Conservative, I would be most "worried" by Rory Stewart becoming Prime Minister. He is, it seems to me, a Lib Dem masquerading as a Conservative which would make him as hard for the LDs to counter as was Cameron back in his "liberal conservative" days. Cameron also talked about the environment but that was, I suspect, to a very different Conservative Party which had been out of power for eight years rather than having been in power for nine.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,086
    Pulpstar said:

    > @Selebian said:

    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    >

    > > > @nico67 said:

    >

    > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    >

    > > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest

    >

    > > >

    >

    > > > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther

    >

    >

    >

    > I hope his local party deselects him pronto.

    >

    > For a hypothetical VONC? How about if Soubry was still in the party, standing for leader promising revoke if she won? Should Baker be deselected if he said he would VONC her if she became leader?



    Has he ever said that ?

    Not to my knowledge, just wondering how HYUFD would react to an equivalent comment from someone on the other side of the argument. I think it's bizarre to want someone deselected because they say they would VONC a hypothetical future leader over a hypothetical future policy. Surely any MP with principles has some breaking point where they would VONC their own leader over policy (and if that actually happens of course they should no longer be in that party) but not until that actually happens. Under a leader pursuing no deal, Hammond is essentially saying he would no longer be a Conservative, but as of now he has not been disloyal to the party policies (which are not no deal) nor to the (current) leader so he'd be kicked out for opposing something that the government also does not currenty favour.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @HYUFD said:
    > The proportion of low paid adults in the UK is the lowest since 1980, helped by minimum wage rises and the National Living Wage
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48446811

    The measure is a ratio against median income, and is driven largely by the stagnation of median incomes. Median income has risen an average of just 0.8% per year since the Conservatives took power.

    In other words, we are witnessing a redistribution of income from people on £27k to those on £16k. All those economic gains are going to the richest.

    Still, it's good news story until you stop to think about it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,014
    Good morning, everyone (again).

    Odd weather. Looks cool but it's muggy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,491
    > @Benpointer said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
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    > > > @Benpointer said:
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    > > > > @Scott_P said:
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    > > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Except it's not just a one month fall:
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.
    >
    >
    >
    > I think we will see motorway driving automated for most drivers within a generation. But yes, difficult to see cars in central London being the same.
    >
    > Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...
    >
    > The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.
    >
    > Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Gather that driverless cars are going to be very useful for the elderly. As I'm having a discussion with the suppliers over my driving technique (developed over the past 60 years) and my new car, maybe a driverless will be the way to go when/if I do get something new.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    AndyJS said:

    > @Sandpit said:

    > England 11/5 to win the tournament.

    >

    >

    >

    > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.117991336

    >

    > That’s way too short!



    Should we lay England?

    Maybe after we win the first match!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,971
    From Wiki....

    In The Economist's 2018 end-of-the-year awards for the worst in British politics, Johnson received the highest award (the "politician who has done most to let down his party and country").[494] The Economist described Johnson as one of the architects of the Brexit "catastrophe",

    In a big field, there was one outstanding candidate. He failed miserably as foreign secretary. He sniped at Mrs May while in Cabinet. He has agitated against her deal from the backbenches and in his lucrative newspaper column without presenting a real alternative. A demagogue not a statesman, he is the most irresponsible politician the country has seen for many years.

    Nice one!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,220
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Good morning, everyone (again).
    >
    > Odd weather. Looks cool but it's muggy.

    The beginning of the ascent to subtropical Saturday. At least in the south.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bairstow gets a golden duck.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,316
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    > @Sandpit said:

    > England 11/5 to win the tournament.

    >

    >

    >

    > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.117991336

    >

    > That’s way too short!



    Should we lay England?

    Maybe after we win the first match!
    Depends on the pitches. If it is a high scoring tournament on roads (340+ par) then we're undoubtedly the best in the world. If the pitches are trickier then it is more difficult for us.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Roger said:
    > From Wiki....
    >
    > In The Economist's 2018 end-of-the-year awards for the worst in British politics, Johnson received the highest award (the "politician who has done most to let down his party and country").[494] The Economist described Johnson as one of the architects of the Brexit "catastrophe",
    >
    > In a big field, there was one outstanding candidate. He failed miserably as foreign secretary. He sniped at Mrs May while in Cabinet. He has agitated against her deal from the backbenches and in his lucrative newspaper column without presenting a real alternative. A demagogue not a statesman, he is the most irresponsible politician the country has seen for many years.
    >
    > Nice one!

    Hamartographies are usually partisan nonsense, but this one is spot on. Every time I think I've got a handle on how rotten and unsuitable Johnson is, a new story emerges that I haven't heard before. He's like the Magic Porridge Pot of reasons to keep him away from power.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998

    > @Benpointer said:

    > > @Benpointer said:

    >

    > > > @Scott_P said:

    >

    > >

    >

    > > >



    >

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Except it's not just a one month fall:

    >

    >

    >

    > The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.

    >

    >

    >

    > Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.

    >

    >

    >

    > At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.

    >

    > "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.



    I think we will see motorway driving automated for most drivers within a generation. But yes, difficult to see cars in central London being the same.
    Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...

    The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.
    And a driverless car needs to drop me at work, go back home empty to pick the kids up and take them to school, and most importantly pick me up from the pub at closing time and bring my drunk body home to the wife.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,316
    Lol, Roy's single avoids the royal duck.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Lol, Roy's single avoids the royal duck.

    Never heard of a royal duck before.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 56,064
    Its a good job England bat deep.....I have heard that one somewhere before...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,014
    Mr. B2, Yorkshire is not in the south. Cease this blasphemy!
  • AndyJS said:

    > @Pulpstar said:

    > Lol, Roy's single avoids the royal duck.



    Never heard of a royal duck before.

    Technically it would have been an Emperor duck.

    Emperor duck - Losing a wicket with the first ball of a match

    Royal duck - Losing a wicket with the first ball of an innings
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,014
    Mr. Eagles, would Imperial duck be more grammatically appropriate?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348


    Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...

    The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.

    The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.

    This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,744
    > @williamglenn said:
    >

    The EU have affirmed they will not change the backstop, the WA is it
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,220
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. B2, Yorkshire is not in the south. Cease this blasphemy!

    It's sunny already down here, and much warmer than yesterday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,744
    edited May 2019
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @Freggles said:
    > > > Boris could be a Romney - the electorate gives everyone else a good look in the hope of an alternative, but ultimately he is the last man standing
    > >
    > > Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway.
    > >
    > > Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull
    >
    > Nothing to do with Romney being up against Obama, the most popular American president of recent times, and Trump against Hilary, a tie between the two least popular presidential candidates of recent times. Obama would have thrashed Trump and Romney would have comfortably beaten Hilary.

    No, Trump won the rustbelt Romney lost. I think Obama v Trump would have been close in 2016 and Hillary might have beaten Romney in the EC
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,220
    > @Roger said:
    > From Wiki....
    >
    > In The Economist's 2018 end-of-the-year awards for the worst in British politics, Johnson received the highest award (the "politician who has done most to let down his party and country").[494] The Economist described Johnson as one of the architects of the Brexit "catastrophe",
    >
    > In a big field, there was one outstanding candidate. He failed miserably as foreign secretary. He sniped at Mrs May while in Cabinet. He has agitated against her deal from the backbenches and in his lucrative newspaper column without presenting a real alternative. A demagogue not a statesman, he is the most irresponsible politician the country has seen for many years.
    >
    > Nice one!

    Tories can buy in haste and repent at leisure. Unless the MPs show some spine.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,254
    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,297
    > @Benpointer said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
    >
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Except it's not just a one month fall:
    >
    >
    >
    > The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.
    >
    >
    >
    > Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.
    >
    >
    >
    > At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.
    >
    > "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.

    Speak for yourself!

    10 years should do it.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,075
    edited May 2019
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. B2, Yorkshire is not in the south. Cease this blasphemy!

    It's south of where I'm sat which is definitely one test...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 56,064
    edited May 2019
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...
    >
    > The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.
    >
    > Not. Going. To. Happen.
    >
    > One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.
    >
    > The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.
    >
    > This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.

    Watching any videos on YouTube of the auto-pilot in action in real life conditions, clearly shows Tesla's system is far more driver assist than real auto-pilot. Even in perfect conditions, for example it can't do traffic lights and roundabouts.

    IMO, The fact Musk only wants to use cameras to achieve this is also bonkers....

    If Musk was selling Tesla systems as a safer and easier experience to driving manually yourself, that would be a more realistic sales pitch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,744
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway.
    >
    > Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull
    >
    > You have quite a view of the "party base". I am a member of the party base and I despise arseholes, of which Boris is undoubtedly one.

    Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters voted Brexit Party last week
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,264
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.
    >
    > The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.
    >
    > This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.

    In defence of the Move Fast And Break Things, Even Human Ones approach, every extra day that humans are still in charge of cars will also kill people.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,316


    Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...

    The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.

    The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.

    This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.
    I think driverless technology is far easier to solve in the USA where all their cities and towns are built in square grids and roads have clearly marked white lines everywhere.

    Rural Devon or Lincolnshire OTOH...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,885
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    >
    > > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Except it's not just a one month fall:
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.
    >
    >
    >
    > I think we will see motorway driving automated for most drivers within a generation. But yes, difficult to see cars in central London being the same.
    >
    > Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...
    >
    > The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.
    >
    > Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Surely that is simple. Humans take over and have a stand up row in the middle of the road.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,744
    edited May 2019
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > The proportion of low paid adults in the UK is the lowest since 1980, helped by minimum wage rises and the National Living Wage
    > >
    > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48446811
    >
    > The measure is a ratio against median income, and is driven largely by the stagnation of median incomes. Median income has risen an average of just 0.8% per year since the Conservatives took power.
    >
    > In other words, we are witnessing a redistribution of income from people on £27k to those on £16k. All those economic gains are going to the richest.
    >
    > Still, it's good news story until you stop to think about it.

    The top income tax rate at 45% is still higher than it was in most of the New Labour years
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,271
    Is there a fruit or vegetable that is yellow on the outside and green on the inside?

    That appears to be Ed Davey's pitch for the LD leadership.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,232
    > @Roger said:
    > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > > @JohnLoony said:
    > > > > Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party.
    > > > A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila.
    > >
    > > Last decent Tory leader, in fact the only decent Tory leader of my adult lifetime, was John Major. He did surprisingly well in Scotland. Scots tend to value integrity, quiet competence and dutifulness. I can’t wait to see the Scottish VI breaks if Boris, Gove or Raab take over.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > For all the midge bites at this time of year at least the Scots have it in their hands to extricate themselves from a Boris Prime Ministership. The English have to look for Irish relatives.

    Indeed. England should be profoundly grateful for Irish intransigence. You whopped an ugly artificial border across their island and then had the cheek to refer to it as the “Irish border” (it isn’t; the Irish border is the beach). Luckily for England that act of gross idiocy and cruelty is about to save you from Brexit a century later.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,052
    I've just realised we're in for weeks of various numpties commenting every time a wicket falls, a six is hit or somebody does a double fault. Yes, it's summer which equals sport which equals good sense and debate going out of the building.

    Perhaps I should join in - MAQSAD for the Oaks and MADHMOON for the Derby for a Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum double and mercifully Ascot is on the horizon providing some proper sport.

    As for "ducks", I prefer mine crispy roast or with a nice orange sauce with plenty of brandy.
  • Mr. B2, Yorkshire is not in the south. Cease this blasphemy!

    The greatest part of Yorkshire has South in its name.

    Just saying.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. B2, Yorkshire is not in the south. Cease this blasphemy!

    Most southerly part of the British Isles part of the UK is approx N49 51.000. Most northerly is approx N60 51.000. That means the midway point, delineating north and south is at N55 21.000. That a line cutting roughly through Girvan - Moffat - Amble. Yorkshire is *entirely* in the southern half.

    <tin hat>
    <hide>
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,491
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...
    >
    > The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.
    >
    > Not. Going. To. Happen.
    >
    > One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.
    >
    > The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.
    >
    > This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.
    >
    > I think driverless technology is far easier to solve in the USA where all their cities and towns are built in square grids and roads have clearly marked white lines everywhere.
    >
    > Rural Devon or Lincolnshire OTOH...

    There's an estate in Basildon deliberately built to resemble a rural village with twisty roads, some leading nowhere, and a duckpond.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,468



    The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    I would have thought that one of the relatively easier cases.
    Driverless cars will have far better situational awareness in terms of passing places along the road, and would likely be far superior to most drivers in ability to reverse with a trailer. And the speeds involved would be low.

    In any event, driverless will happened first in major cities.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,030
    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters voted Brexit Party last week

    Well fuck 'em.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.

    >

    > The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.

    >

    > This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.



    In defence of the Move Fast And Break Things, Even Human Ones approach, every extra day that humans are still in charge of cars will also kill people.

    Indeed. But any new technology should at least have the same level of safety as the system(s) it replaces. Driverless cars *may* be there on highways without lane changing; they're nowhere near there for most urban or rural roads.

    We should look back a decade or two in history. The Germans spent years and millions perfecting Maglev technology, and had a long test track. They proclaimed that it was 'impossible' to have a crash because the system would not allow power to two trains on the track.

    23 people died when a test train ploughed into a maintenance vehicle.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lathen_train_collision

    There is a habit of assuming the new will be safer than the old; and that the hard-won lessons of the old can be forgotten. A clean slate will work.

    In reality, all that happens is that those hard-won lessons are re-learnt at the cost of lives and treasure.

    The same can be seen with the hyperloop: fuck-all consideration is being given to safety systems; as far as I've seen, most groups appear to be taking the same approach of time-gap signalling. The railways got rid of this 150 years ago for a reason.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 56,064
    Imran Tahir has had quite an incredibly career...when he was in his mid 20s he was still playing local league cricket for a tiny village team in the UK.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,769
    Agree with Alastair. Johnson's to lose probably means Johnson WILL lose. Let's hope so anyway. Grisly prospect.

    The winner? I am happy to echo what close friends and family are no doubt whispering to a certain Secretary of State for the Environment.

    "Michael, it's got to be you."

    He is such the clear and obvious best choice in the circumstances prevailing that even an electorate as eccentric as the paid up members of the Conservative Party will IMO struggle to be stupid enough to go for somebody else.

    He also happens to be my best (realistic) betting result but that is honest guv not what is guiding my thinking at this point.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...
    >
    > The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.
    >
    > Not. Going. To. Happen.
    >
    > One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.
    >
    > The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.
    >
    > This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.

    Of course driverless cars will kill people. The relevant question is, will they save more people than they kill. Humans are, shall we say, imperfect drivers. The carnage on the roads is frightening and is often caused by impatience and inattention. That shouldn't be a problem for a computer. The issue for a computer will be inference and assessing novel situations. Computers are getting surprisingly good at both of these things. Driverless cars that are safer than human drivers are a few short years away. Whether they can cope without getting themselves stuck is a more interesting question imo.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,491
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > Mr. B2, Yorkshire is not in the south. Cease this blasphemy!
    >
    > The greatest part of Yorkshire has South in its name.
    >
    > Just saying.

    It's all relative though, isn't it. As a student at what is now Sunderland University I was assured that the South started at Middlesborough. The North, if IIRC, started halfway across the Tyne.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,897
    ah009 said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    > The proportion of low paid adults in the UK is the lowest since 1980, helped by minimum wage rises and the National Living Wage

    >

    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48446811



    The measure is a ratio against median income, and is driven largely by the stagnation of median incomes. Median income has risen an average of just 0.8% per year since the Conservatives took power.



    In other words, we are witnessing a redistribution of income from people on £27k to those on £16k. All those economic gains are going to the richest.



    Still, it's good news story until you stop to think about it.

    What do you expect from a Tory, they are incapable of telling the truth
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,897
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters voted Brexit Party last week

    Well fuck 'em.
    Hopefully with pointy barge pole
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2019

    &


    Indeed. England should be profoundly grateful for Irish intransigence. You whopped an ugly artificial border across their island and then had the cheek to refer to it as the “Irish border” (it isn’t; the Irish border is the beach). Luckily for England that act of gross idiocy and cruelty is about to save you from Brexit a century later.

    More Scotland than England in Ulster, perhaps?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,264
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigelb said:
    > I would have thought that one of the relatively easier cases.
    > Driverless cars will have far better situational awareness in terms of passing places along the road, and would likely be far superior to most drivers in ability to reverse with a trailer. And the speeds involved would be low.

    Yup. Alsp they'll be able to talk to each other, which for weird traditional reasons non-trucker humans in approaching cars have a hard time doing, despite having had the technology to do it for decades.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > Prepare for serious drought comrades ...
    >

    There is a lot to take issue with there, but the most important is that a Scandinavian block can sometimes lead to more rain over the UK as low pressure systems sweep in from the Atlantic and then are forced to stall by the block and dump all their rain on the UK.

    A persistent set-up of that type lead to an exceptionally wet winter in 2014 which set a new winter record for the England & Wales Precipitation dataset since 1766.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,264
    > @ah009 said:
    > Whether they can cope without getting themselves stuck is a more interesting question imo.

    In theory they could call a remote human driver in a call centre somewhere to get them moving again if that happens.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @ah009 said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > The proportion of low paid adults in the UK is the lowest since 1980, helped by minimum wage rises and the National Living Wage
    > > >
    > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48446811
    > >
    > > The measure is a ratio against median income, and is driven largely by the stagnation of median incomes. Median income has risen an average of just 0.8% per year since the Conservatives took power.
    > >
    > > In other words, we are witnessing a redistribution of income from people on £27k to those on £16k. All those economic gains are going to the richest.
    > >
    > > Still, it's good news story until you stop to think about it.
    >
    > The top income tax rate at 45% is still higher than it was in most of the New Labour years

    Well I'm not sure that's the reason that middle and low incomes are converging. Tax rates on £150,000 incomes isn't much to do with wage stagnation near the £30k mark.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    edited May 2019
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @ah009 said:
    > > Whether they can cope without getting themselves stuck is a more interesting question imo.
    >
    > In theory they could call a remote human driver in a call centre somewhere to get them moving again if that happens.

    Looking forward to the whole country having the kind of 5G coverage that will allow for that!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    I've just seen McVey's comments on LGBT+ education -and she can fuck right off with that sort of bigoted nonsense.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 56,064
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > > @ah009 said:
    > > > Whether they can cope without getting themselves stuck is a more interesting question imo.
    > >
    > > In theory they could call a remote human driver in a call centre somewhere to get them moving again if that happens.
    >
    > Looking forward to the whole country having the kind of 5G coverage that will allow for that!

    So are the chinese....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,069
    On topic: The crucial thing to bear in mind in thinking about this market is that, as soon as we get past the first rounds or so of the MP's ballot, the contest stops being 'who would you prefer as party leader?' and starts becoming 'who will you vote for given that X and Y (or just X in the final round) is likely to win this?'.

    Thus, you can't consider Boris, or any other candidate, in isolation, it has to be Boris compared with one or more other candidates. And that becomes a complex calculation; MP's are very likely to change their vote as the rounds progress in order to avoid a membership run-off which is likely to be won by someone they definitely don't want.

    In practice, I think that means that if Boris looks like making the final two, we need to consider who MPs will gravitate towards as the Stop Boris candidate. Clearly it will need to be someone attractive to Leavers; you don't stop Boris by putting up Rory Stewart as the alternative, impressive though the latter has been. But equally, you don't stop Boris by putting up someone even more unacceptable to the moderate wing of the party: faced with the choice of Boris vs Raab (and certainly Boris vs McVey), for example, I'd hold my nose and vote for Boris, probably resigning from the party shortly thereafter.

    Given that a sizable number of party members ( including people from all parts of the Remain/Leave spectrum) actively hate the idea of Boris as leader, that means that MPs are likely to gravitate towards a moderate Leaver as the best alternative. That favours Gove, unless someone else can gain enough momentum during the process to come up from behind. To my mind James Cleverly is the outstanding candidate in this part of the field, but probably too unknown and junior to break through. But you never know - these contests can produce real surprises.

    To a large extent, the same calculation applies if, instead of Boris, a more extreme Brexiteer looks like making the final two. The large moderate chunk of Tory MPs will want to present an alternative who's not necessarily their first choice, but a more moderate Leaver who can beat the extremist.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,069

    Yup. Alsp they'll be able to talk to each other, which for weird traditional reasons non-trucker humans in approaching cars have a hard time doing, despite having had the technology to do it for decades.

    The transition when some cars are driverless and some aren't is tricky, though. And what if the other vehicle isn't a car but is a farm tractor pulling a trailer, or a horse and cart?

    The last 0.1% of the problem is going to be really difficult.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,468
    "faced with the choice of Boris vs Raab (and certainly Boris vs McVey), for example, I'd hold my nose and vote for Boris, probably resigning from the party shortly thereafter. ..."

    Interesting.
    I wonder how many members might resign after a candidate they ended up voting for won ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 56,064
    Labour needs a reboot – and it could start with bringing back Ed Miliband
    Owen Jones

    Owen will be off the winter festival card list and off to the gulag soon if he carries on making suggestions like that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,468

    Yup. Alsp they'll be able to talk to each other, which for weird traditional reasons non-trucker humans in approaching cars have a hard time doing, despite having had the technology to do it for decades.

    The transition when some cars are driverless and some aren't is tricky, though. And what if the other vehicle isn't a car but is a farm tractor pulling a trailer, or a horse and cart?

    The last 0.1% of the problem is going to be really difficult.
    But from a market point of view, not particularly relevant.
    Mobility in rural areas is likely to remain more expensive for some time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,220
    edited May 2019
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > On topic: The crucial thing to bear in mind in thinking about this market is that, as soon as we get past the first rounds or so of the MP's ballot, the contest stops being 'who would you prefer as party leader?' and starts becoming 'who will you vote for given that X and Y (or just X in the final round) is likely to win this?'.
    >
    > Thus, you can't consider Boris, or any other candidate, in isolation, it has to be Boris compared with one or more other candidates. And that becomes a complex calculation; MP's are very likely to change their vote as the rounds progress in order to avoid a membership run-off which is likely to be won by someone they definitely don't want.
    >
    > In practice, I think that means that if Boris looks like making the final two, we need to consider who MPs will gravitate towards as the Stop Boris candidate. Clearly it will need to be someone attractive to Leavers; you don't stop Boris by putting up Rory Stewart as the alternative, impressive though the latter has been. But equally, you don't stop Boris by putting up someone even more unacceptable to the moderate wing of the party: faced with the choice of Boris vs Raab (and certainly Boris vs McVey), for example, I'd hold my nose and vote for Boris, probably resigning from the party shortly thereafter.
    >
    > Given that a sizable number of party members ( including people from all parts of the Remain/Leave spectrum) actively hate the idea of Boris as leader, that means that MPs are likely to gravitate towards a moderate Leaver as the best alternative. That favours Gove, unless someone else can gain enough momentum during the process to come up from behind. To my mind James Cleverly is the outstanding candidate in this part of the field, but probably too unknown and junior to break through. But you never know - these contests can produce real surprises.
    >
    > To a large extent, the same calculation applies if, instead of Boris, a more extreme Brexiteer looks like making the final two. The large moderate chunk of Tory MPs will want to present an alternative who's not necessarily their first choice, but a more moderate Leaver who can beat the extremist.

    A sensible post. I too rate Cleverly, although taking over in government is a big ask.

    Stopping Boris does of course mean not just identifying another winner but enough MPs switching to a suitable runner-up to keep Boris in third.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,014
    Mr. Me, interesting climatic comment.

    Mr. Urquhart, I think someone tipped Miliband as next Labour leader at about 101.

    Upon checking, that was Mr. Eagles in 2017. I put a pound or two on.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,229
    @Richard_Nabavi - Really interesting, I agree that after the first round a lot of MPs will make such calculations. Do you think that means Hunt, Hancock and Stewart have little chance of making it to the final two?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,229
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Labour needs a reboot – and it could start with bringing back Ed Miliband
    > Owen Jones
    >
    > Owen will be off the winter festival card list and off to the gulag soon if he carries on making suggestions like that.

    He'll be hailed as hero on PB, though!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,316

    Yup. Alsp they'll be able to talk to each other, which for weird traditional reasons non-trucker humans in approaching cars have a hard time doing, despite having had the technology to do it for decades.

    The transition when some cars are driverless and some aren't is tricky, though. And what if the other vehicle isn't a car but is a farm tractor pulling a trailer, or a horse and cart?

    The last 0.1% of the problem is going to be really difficult.
    As someone who has ridden horses on the road before, I can tell you driverless cars will definitely be an improvement over plenty of humans.
  • Nigelb said:

    "faced with the choice of Boris vs Raab (and certainly Boris vs McVey), for example, I'd hold my nose and vote for Boris, probably resigning from the party shortly thereafter. ..."

    Interesting.
    I wonder how many members might resign after a candidate they ended up voting for won ?

    Didn’t quite a few Labour MPs who defected to the SDP vote for Michael Foot in the hope of dooming Labour?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,220
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...
    > >
    > > The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.
    > >
    > > Not. Going. To. Happen.
    > >
    > > One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.
    > >
    > > The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.
    > >
    > > This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.
    >
    > Of course driverless cars will kill people. The relevant question is, will they save more people than they kill. Humans are, shall we say, imperfect drivers. The carnage on the roads is frightening and is often caused by impatience and inattention. That shouldn't be a problem for a computer. The issue for a computer will be inference and assessing novel situations. Computers are getting surprisingly good at both of these things. Driverless cars that are safer than human drivers are a few short years away. Whether they can cope without getting themselves stuck is a more interesting question imo.

    But how do you punish a driverless car?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,030
    @Richard_Nabavi don't forget that Boris is also about the only candidate who could do a volte face on no deal and march onwards as though nothing had happened.
  • Mr. Me, interesting climatic comment.

    Mr. Urquhart, I think someone tipped Miliband as next Labour leader at about 101.

    Upon checking, that was Mr. Eagles in 2017. I put a pound or two on.

    I tipped him at 200/1.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/29/is-this-ed-milibands-route-back-to-the-labour-leadership/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    stodge said:


    Perhaps I should join in - MAQSAD for the Oaks and MADHMOON for the Derby for a Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum double and mercifully Ascot is on the horizon providing some proper sport.

    It worries me slightly that both Maqsad (the Coronation Stakes) and Madhmoon (the St James's Palace Stakes) are entered in mile races at Royal Ascot, implying connections are not certain they will stay the Classic trip. There was also a rumour that all is not well in the Prendergast yard. That said, both races look very open this year.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,014
    Mr. Eagles, ah, my mistake. I did back him at 101, though (missed the boat a bit, as usual).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,853
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > On topic: The crucial thing to bear in mind in thinking about this market is that, as soon as we get past the first rounds or so of the MP's ballot, the contest stops being 'who would you prefer as party leader?' and starts becoming 'who will you vote for given that X and Y (or just X in the final round) is likely to win this?'.
    > >
    > > Thus, you can't consider Boris, or any other candidate, in isolation, it has to be Boris compared with one or more other candidates. And that becomes a complex calculation; MP's are very likely to change their vote as the rounds progress in order to avoid a membership run-off which is likely to be won by someone they definitely don't want.
    > >
    > > In practice, I think that means that if Boris looks like making the final two, we need to consider who MPs will gravitate towards as the Stop Boris candidate. Clearly it will need to be someone attractive to Leavers; you don't stop Boris by putting up Rory Stewart as the alternative, impressive though the latter has been. But equally, you don't stop Boris by putting up someone even more unacceptable to the moderate wing of the party: faced with the choice of Boris vs Raab (and certainly Boris vs McVey), for example, I'd hold my nose and vote for Boris, probably resigning from the party shortly thereafter.
    > >
    > > Given that a sizable number of party members ( including people from all parts of the Remain/Leave spectrum) actively hate the idea of Boris as leader, that means that MPs are likely to gravitate towards a moderate Leaver as the best alternative. That favours Gove, unless someone else can gain enough momentum during the process to come up from behind. To my mind James Cleverly is the outstanding candidate in this part of the field, but probably too unknown and junior to break through. But you never know - these contests can produce real surprises.
    > >
    > > To a large extent, the same calculation applies if, instead of Boris, a more extreme Brexiteer looks like making the final two. The large moderate chunk of Tory MPs will want to present an alternative who's not necessarily their first choice, but a more moderate Leaver who can beat the extremist.
    >
    > A sensible post. I too rate Cleverly, although taking over in government is a big ask.
    >
    > Stopping Boris does of course mean not just identifying another winner but enough MPs switching to a suitable runner-up to keep Boris in third.

    The Too-Clever-By-Half approach that would doom the party....

    All polling suggest that Boris has to be offered to the Party. Tell the members to fuck off - and they will. En masse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    edited May 2019

    Yup. Alsp they'll be able to talk to each other, which for weird traditional reasons non-trucker humans in approaching cars have a hard time doing, despite having had the technology to do it for decades.

    The transition when some cars are driverless and some aren't is tricky, though. And what if the other vehicle isn't a car but is a farm tractor pulling a trailer, or a horse and cart?

    The last 0.1% of the problem is going to be really difficult.
    There’s *lots* of edge cases in self-driving car design, along with some fascinating discussions to come around ethics and regulations.

    Probably a couple of decades to go before they’re picking me up from the pub, it’s just as well we already have cars with drivers that you can rent by the mile and pick up from the side of the road.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,826
    edited May 2019
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Raab: The Movie
    >
    >

    Raab certainly seems to be on the front foot with his digital campaign... Not sure how much difference it will make with his MPs and Con members though.

    The former won't be swayed by slick marketing videos even if they do go viral and I doubt many of the later are even on social media.

    Still, I suppose its a sign that if he became Con leader a Raab general election campaign would at least be professional (which will be a relief to Con MPs after the 2017 debacle...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. Me, interesting climatic comment.

    Mr. Urquhart, I think someone tipped Miliband as next Labour leader at about 101.

    Upon checking, that was Mr. Eagles in 2017. I put a pound or two on.

    I tipped him at 200/1.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/29/is-this-ed-milibands-route-back-to-the-labour-leadership/
    Can we get a price Ed Miliband for the Conservative leadership? Those currently declared are so uninspiring and the Tories nicked most of Ed's policies anyway, especially the chaos.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,069
    tlg86 said:

    Really interesting, I agree that after the first round a lot of MPs will make such calculations. Do you think that means Hunt, Hancock and Stewart have little chance of making it to the final two?

    Stewart or Hancock very unlikely. Hunt has a chance of making the final two, I think.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,014
    Mr. Mark, Boris doesn't have a God-given right to be in the final two. The whole point of the process is to ensure that whomever is selected by the members is acceptable to the PCP.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 163
    I will be voting for one of the two candidates Parliamentary Party sends me. Regardless of how someone voted back in 2016 EuroRef, for me it's a simple choice as we look forward, not back:

    We need someone who can get us to 2022.

    We don't want someone who will crash and burn on Bonfire Night having failed to get Parliamentary approval a no-deal on Halloween and thus precipitate a general election by Xmas.

    I think the Parliuamentary Party has now worked this out for itself. Whether the membership has twigged is another matter.

    The whole process has been characterised as a horse race. And recent history tells me that the riders focus on what's immediately in front of them rather than anticipating what might be coming up. We need a leader to look beyond the immediate hurdle to see what's on the other side of the fence... all the way to 2022.

    Johnson isn't that man. Which is why Alistair's analysis is correct.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,316
    On topic: I agree with the header, Boris is still a live candidate mind.

    Boris' problem is that Farage will tear him a new arsehole when the inevitable October capitulation comes.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,086
    ah009 said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > Indeed, or in rural Dorset (/other county of your choice)...

    >

    > The algorithms required when two driverless cars meet each other on single-track lane, when one has a trailer and the other is at the head of a line of other cars, is going to make landing on Mars look simple. Then again negotiating a few stray sheep will be challenging too.

    >

    > Not. Going. To. Happen.

    >

    > One of Elon Musk's major negatives is his fanatical and deadly habit of over-promoting the capabilities of his 'driverless' cars, when sane caution is best.

    >

    > The edge and corner cases in driverless cars are numerous; and he shows f'all consideration of the fact that he is pushing the technology far and fast.

    >

    > This will kill people. In fact, it can be argued that it already has.



    Of course driverless cars will kill people. The relevant question is, will they save more people than they kill. Humans are, shall we say, imperfect drivers. The carnage on the roads is frightening and is often caused by impatience and inattention. That shouldn't be a problem for a computer. The issue for a computer will be inference and assessing novel situations. Computers are getting surprisingly good at both of these things. Driverless cars that are safer than human drivers are a few short years away. Whether they can cope without getting themselves stuck is a more interesting question imo.

    This is one of the main difficulties, I think. On one of my routes to work (which I avoid when possible for reasons set out below) there is a right turn on to a side road on a blind left bend. You cannot see far enough around the bend to make the turn safely (getting to a position to see enough means you're blocking the oncoming traffic lane). So you grit your teeth, listen for any clue of oncoming traffic and then floor the pedal to cross the oncoming lane as quickly as possible. Given the fairly sharp blind turn, oncoming traffic should be proceeding with caution and have a chance to stop to avoid a collision, but the speed limit is 60. As a human, I take the risk - it's a quiet road and there's rarely something coming - and turn across possibly fast approaching oncoming traffic because the alternative is to sit there all day. Designing an algorithm to do the same would be hard as there simply isn't enough information, may result in liability in the event of a crash and may lead to unsafe behaviour in other situations. The only alternatives are being stuck there or is determining the turn is unsafe and re-routing (viable in this case, five mile detour, but maybe not in all).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,069
    TOPPING said:

    @Richard_Nabavi don't forget that Boris is also about the only candidate who could do a volte face on no deal and march onwards as though nothing had happened.

    That would be my calculation if the alternative was a committed no-dealer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,030
    Which poster on here yesterday said that Raab had the same "something of the night" about him as Howard?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,995
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > Really interesting, I agree that after the first round a lot of MPs will make such calculations. Do you think that means Hunt, Hancock and Stewart have little chance of making it to the final two?
    >
    > Stewart or Hancock very unlikely. Hunt has a chance of making the final two, I think.

    The transfers don't look great for him. So I think Hunt needs more backers out of the remainder of the party yet to declare (which is plausible)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    > @Selebian said:

    " This is one of the main difficulties, I think. On one of my routes to work (which I avoid when possible for reasons set out below) there is a right turn on to a side road on a blind left bend. You cannot see far enough around the bend to make the turn safely (getting to a position to see enough means you're blocking the oncoming traffic lane). So you grit your teeth, listen for any clue of oncoming traffic and then floor the pedal to cross the oncoming lane as quickly as possible. Given the fairly sharp blind turn, oncoming traffic should be proceeding with caution and have a chance to stop to avoid a collision, but the speed limit is 60. As a human, I take the risk - it's a quiet road and there's rarely something coming - and turn across possibly fast approaching oncoming traffic because the alternative is to sit there all day. Designing an algorithm to do the same would be hard as there simply isn't enough information, may result in liability in the event of a crash and may lead to unsafe behaviour in other situations. The only alternatives are being stuck there or is determining the turn is unsafe and re-routing (viable in this case, five mile detour, but maybe not in all)."

    Sortable with intelligent monitoring of the major road with cameras/drones/gps transponders, and operation of traffic lights or of the oncoming vehicles by taking them over and slowing them down. The future is here, it's just not very evenly distributed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,030
    edited May 2019

    The Too-Clever-By-Half approach that would doom the party....

    All polling suggest that Boris has to be offered to the Party. Tell the members to fuck off - and they will. En masse.

    Excellent. Good riddance.

    So we don't want experts or people who are clever. That the plan is it?
This discussion has been closed.