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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – The False Favourite for the Tory leadership
Right now British politics and British political betting is consumed by the race for next Conservative leader and next Prime Minister. Conventional wisdom on both is that Boris Johnson is the man to beat. He has traded below evens on Betfair for the roles and after an initial rush of excitement, he has settled down in both next Conservative leader and next Prime Minister markets at about 5/2 at the time of writing.
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On the other hand, Boris is said to be guided by Lynton Crosby, and has the backing of the Telegraph. The leadership electorate might well see these as positives!
> He'd boil his kids in oil if it suited him.
Careful throwing "facts" like that about, you might end up in court.
“but we are all being dazzled by Boris Johnson...”
I would guess that most of us are not dazzled at all, so much as baffled as to what the thought processes of the Tory selectorate might be. And unable to summon up much enthusiasm for the alternatives.
> > @Toms said:
> > He'd boil his kids in oil if it suited him.
>
> Careful throwing "facts" like that about, you might end up in court.
How about ‘in my opinion, he gives the strong impression of someone perfectly willing to...’ ?
How many votes will the first-placed candidate receive?
Perhaps we should introduce a £3 membership option so our enemies can vote for him as well.
If the final two aren't both equally hardline on Brexit, then the more pragmatic contender could easily conclude that they have no chance in the membership ballot and withdraw in favour of their opponent, presumably in exchange for a senior cabinet role. A coronation would also have the considerable advantage of getting the new leader in place and Mrs May packed off back to Berkshire as rapidly as possible.
Leadsom as PM and Gove as Chancellor, perhaps?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/conservative-membership-surge-amid-fears-campaign-swing-leadership/
(My book is green on the whole field and massively red on Boris).
> Keep laying the favourite.
>
> (My book is green on the whole field and massively red on Boris).
Mine too, apart from Hancock, who I cannot see as a serious contender.
May put some real muppets in cabinet.
> > @Sandpit said:
> > Keep laying the favourite.
> >
> > (My book is green on the whole field and massively red on Boris).
>
> Mine too, apart from Hancock, who I cannot see as a serious contender.
>
> May put some real muppets in cabinet.
Which department did Gonzo get?
Boris isn't fit to be PM.
However, the idea that fitness for a leadership position is a prerequisite has been shown to be false.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Sandpit said:
> > > Keep laying the favourite.
> > >
> > > (My book is green on the whole field and massively red on Boris).
> >
> > Mine too, apart from Hancock, who I cannot see as a serious contender.
> >
> > May put some real muppets in cabinet.
>
> Which department did Gonzo get?
International trade I think.
> > @Toms said:
> > He'd boil his kids in oil if it suited him.
>
> Careful throwing "facts" like that about, you might end up in court.
It's clearly just my opinion.
1. He can only be measured against the field. One of these numpties is our next PM. Who has the better claim?
2. He can legitimately claim to be a proven winner. Both as Mayor of London (twice) and as leader of the Vote Leave campaign he brought off unlikely victories against the odds. An unlikely victory against the odds is exactly what the Tories need for the next GE.
3. He is clever and colourful, always good copy for journalists. He used to be very amusing, but is less so now.
4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
Personally, I would rather have Rory but he has no chance. I would rather have Gove but he is every bit as marmite as Boris. I thought Javid would be a stronger candidate than he has been to date. I would rather have Hunt but I seriously doubt that the party will accept another converted remainer after the May experience. I repeat, someone has to win. Boris is a genuine contender and in my view is probably correctly the favourite, even if his odds seem short.
> Speaking of overpriced favourites, you can lay Brexit party to win Peterborough by-election at 1.33.
Funny, but I've been thinking that too. They will probably win, but they shouldn't be three to one on.
As regards Alastair's excellent piece, I'm of the same opinion but for a different reason. About half the endorsements are known and the front runners are as expected - Hunt, Johnson, Gove and Raab. My understanding is that Johnson is the Marmite candidate and therefore less likely than the other three to pick up transfers as the eliminations progress. If that is so, he has little chance of making the run-off. Five to two is a terrible price.
A greater mystery however is Leadsome's place amongst the betting favorites. She has just four endorsements. That suggests an early departure rather than a place in the run off. Thirteen to two is worse value than Boris.
I don't get it, but I am laying it to the max.
> On topic I am not so sure. Boris has been all over the place on Brexit, he was an appalling Foreign Secretary, he is gaffe prone, not particularly moral and not as good at building alliances as you might expect and yet...
>
> 1. He can only be measured against the field. One of these numpties is our next PM. Who has the better claim?
>
> 2. He can legitimately claim to be a proven winner. Both as Mayor of London (twice) and as leader of the Vote Leave campaign he brought off unlikely victories against the odds. An unlikely victory against the odds is exactly what the Tories need for the next GE.
>
> 3. He is clever and colourful, always good copy for journalists. He used to be very amusing, but is less so now.
>
> 4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
>
> Personally, I would rather have Rory but he has no chance. I would rather have Gove but he is every bit as marmite as Boris. I thought Javid would be a stronger candidate than he has been to date. I would rather have Hunt but I seriously doubt that the party will accept another converted remainer after the May experience. I repeat, someone has to win. Boris is a genuine contender and in my view is probably correctly the favourite, even if his odds seem short.
An appalling foreign Secretary? Better than David Miliband. He did secure a co-ordinated international response to the Novichok poisonings in Salisbury. And I note his successor and fellow candidate has not managed to come back from Tehran with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
Boris is also the PM the EU dreads. They clearly had no dread of PM May - and look how that turned out...
On the other hand, Tory members too easily reel off that he is a ‘winner’, overlooking his descent to marmite status since 2016 and the tiny detail that he was up against Livingstone when he won.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1133779631029530624/photo/1
(I love the story that he gets paid more than the editor, and that the board would see his loss as a resigning mater for said editor - and they know he has standing offers from the Mail and the Sun).
> > @DavidL said:
> > On topic I am not so sure. Boris has been all over the place on Brexit, he was an appalling Foreign Secretary, he is gaffe prone, not particularly moral and not as good at building alliances as you might expect and yet...
> >
> > 1. He can only be measured against the field. One of these numpties is our next PM. Who has the better claim?
> >
> > 2. He can legitimately claim to be a proven winner. Both as Mayor of London (twice) and as leader of the Vote Leave campaign he brought off unlikely victories against the odds. An unlikely victory against the odds is exactly what the Tories need for the next GE.
> >
> > 3. He is clever and colourful, always good copy for journalists. He used to be very amusing, but is less so now.
> >
> > 4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
> >
> > Personally, I would rather have Rory but he has no chance. I would rather have Gove but he is every bit as marmite as Boris. I thought Javid would be a stronger candidate than he has been to date. I would rather have Hunt but I seriously doubt that the party will accept another converted remainer after the May experience. I repeat, someone has to win. Boris is a genuine contender and in my view is probably correctly the favourite, even if his odds seem short.
>
> An appalling foreign Secretary? Better than David Miliband. He did secure a co-ordinated international response to the Novichok poisonings in Salisbury. And I note his successor and fellow candidate has not managed to come back from Tehran with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
>
> Boris is also the PM the EU dreads. They clearly had no dread of PM May - and look how that turned out...
If the EU dread him it's because they don't believe a word he says, and it's no fun negotiating with someone who keeps changing their minds, or worse, continually fudging.
My guess is that Tory members are disproportionately concentrated in the southern shires (unfortunate, given where their new electorate is), and that Boris’s electoral appeal runs out as soon as you start to go north or west.
> > @rkrkrk said:
> > Speaking of overpriced favourites, you can lay Brexit party to win Peterborough by-election at 1.33.
>
> Funny, but I've been thinking that too. They will probably win, but they shouldn't be three to one on.
>
> As regards Alastair's excellent piece, I'm of the same opinion but for a different reason. About half the endorsements are known and the front runners are as expected - Hunt, Johnson, Gove and Raab. My understanding is that Johnson is the Marmite candidate and therefore less likely than the other three to pick up transfers as the eliminations progress. If that is so, he has little chance of making the run-off. Five to two is a terrible price.
>
> A greater mystery however is Leadsome's place amongst the betting favorites. She has just four endorsements. That suggests an early departure rather than a place in the run off. Thirteen to two is worse value than Boris.
>
> I don't get it, but I am laying it to the max.
Boris is not a mum though
Boris may be all the things his critics say. But he is also a character, an election winner, a motivator. Is Leadsom a better choice? McVey? Baker? Raab? Seriously?
Because with all his flaws, Boris is at least someone non-political people recognise. When your opponent is Nigel Love Me Love Me Farage you need someone with a bit of panache to compete against him.
The battle in the Tory Party surely has evolved pat Boris vs not Boris. Its Leave vs Remain, and if its not Boris then Leave throws away its best card. It'll be Boris.
If not Boris it will likely be Raab, one of them will almost certainly have the MPs to get to the final 2 with the support of hard Brexiteers and all the Tory membership polling shows whichever of them does would then trounce Hunt or Javid and comfortably beat Gove, their likely opponents from the Remain and Mayite loyalist wings of the party. If Gove is the Leaver in the final 2 then the membership likely votes for him over Hint or Javid too. Leadsom would have a chance if she got to the final two but at the moment she trails badly with MPs with Heather Wheeler her sole endorsement.
On the latest ConHome numbers Hunt currently leads with MPs on 29, Boris and Gove are tied for second on 26, then Raab is third on 22 with the rest of the field some way back with Javid next on 14 and Hancock on 11.
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/05/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > On topic I am not so sure. Boris has been all over the place on Brexit, he was an appalling Foreign Secretary, he is gaffe prone, not particularly moral and not as good at building alliances as you might expect and yet...
>
> >
>
> > 1. He can only be measured against the field. One of these numpties is our next PM. Who has the better claim?
>
> >
>
> > 2. He can legitimately claim to be a proven winner. Both as Mayor of London (twice) and as leader of the Vote Leave campaign he brought off unlikely victories against the odds. An unlikely victory against the odds is exactly what the Tories need for the next GE.
>
> >
>
> > 3. He is clever and colourful, always good copy for journalists. He used to be very amusing, but is less so now.
>
> >
>
> > 4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
>
> >
>
> > Personally, I would rather have Rory but he has no chance. I would rather have Gove but he is every bit as marmite as Boris. I thought Javid would be a stronger candidate than he has been to date. I would rather have Hunt but I seriously doubt that the party will accept another converted remainer after the May experience. I repeat, someone has to win. Boris is a genuine contender and in my view is probably correctly the favourite, even if his odds seem short.
>
>
>
> An appalling foreign Secretary? Better than David Miliband. He did secure a co-ordinated international response to the Novichok poisonings in Salisbury. And I note his successor and fellow candidate has not managed to come back from Tehran with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
>
>
>
> Boris is also the PM the EU dreads. They clearly had no dread of PM May - and look how that turned out...
>
> Better than David Miliband? Are these really the standards we want to set? Really?
Look at the field....
If we didn't have Brexit hanging over democracy in this country, we could take a punt on Rory.
He gets a lot of stick from his enemies Again quite normal, because he's an effective politician. Despite his faults.
As far as I'm concerned, the Tories can vote for Vlad the Impaler, but this court case helps make the legal system look silly, not Boris.
> > @DavidL said:
> > On topic I am not so sure. Boris has been all over the place on Brexit, he was an appalling Foreign Secretary, he is gaffe prone, not particularly moral and not as good at building alliances as you might expect and yet...
> >
> > 1. He can only be measured against the field. One of these numpties is our next PM. Who has the better claim?
> >
> > 2. He can legitimately claim to be a proven winner. Both as Mayor of London (twice) and as leader of the Vote Leave campaign he brought off unlikely victories against the odds. An unlikely victory against the odds is exactly what the Tories need for the next GE.
> >
> > 3. He is clever and colourful, always good copy for journalists. He used to be very amusing, but is less so now.
> >
> > 4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
> >
> > Personally, I would rather have Rory but he has no chance. I would rather have Gove but he is every bit as marmite as Boris. I thought Javid would be a stronger candidate than he has been to date. I would rather have Hunt but I seriously doubt that the party will accept another converted remainer after the May experience. I repeat, someone has to win. Boris is a genuine contender and in my view is probably correctly the favourite, even if his odds seem short.
>
> An appalling foreign Secretary? Better than David Miliband. He did secure a co-ordinated international response to the Novichok poisonings in Salisbury. And I note his successor and fellow candidate has not managed to come back from Tehran with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
>
> Boris is also the PM the EU dreads. They clearly had no dread of PM May - and look how that turned out...
I think the EU dislike him rather than dread him - but their position will be exactly as now. It's just pathetic that so many on here and in the party still fail to get it.
> If the Tories want to win a majority against Corbyn Boris remains by far their best bet, he has more charisma than the rest of the field put together and polling shows he is the candidate who would win back the most voters from the Brexit Party and increase the Tory voteshare the most. He is a Leaver committed to leaving the EU but not as hardline as say Baker or McVey as he voted for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3 and he is not a committed No Dealer either.
>
> If not Boris it will likely be Raab, one of them will almost certainly have the MPs to get to the final 2 with the support of hard Brexiteers and all the Tory membership polling shows whichever of them does would then trounce Hunt or Javid and comfortably beat Gove, their likely opponents from the Remain and Mayite loyalist wings of the party. If Gove is the Leaver in the final 2 then the membership likely votes for him over Hunt or Javid too. Leadsom would have a chance if she got to the final two but at the moment she trails badly with MPs with Heather Wheeler her sole endorsement.
>
> On the latest ConHome numbers Hunt currently leads with MPs on 29, Boris and Gove are tied for second on 26, then Raab is third on 22 with the rest of the field some way back with Javid next on 14 and Hancock on 11.
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/05/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
Latest Tory membership polling here too
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
>
> 4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
>
I can't decide whether Johnson is the most likely recipient of transfers, as laggards are eliminated from the process, or if the size of the field points to such a severe weakness in the favourite that transfers will mostly find a different berth.
Also refusing to say that she wants Alastair Campbell back as a member.
She's a waste of space as an interviewee.
There is no solution to the Brexit conundrum unless some of May’s red lines are torn up. If the other options - a referendum or a GE - are ruled out then there are only 2: exit with No Deal on 31 October with insufficient preparation or ask for more time to prepare for a No deal exit.
How any serious party could contemplate the former option beats me. But there is a fundamental lack of seriousness in British politics today so I suppose I should not be surprised.
Incidentally, Ian Lavery’s comments in the Times today make it pretty obvious that Corbyn is not going to be changing his tune on Brexit.
> Maybe those running against him are doing so to make their mark in the expectation of pulling out and backing him later and hoping for preferment? Just saying.
>
It's possible. Worth comparing to previous elections.
In 2005 Wikipedia says there were initially 7 candidates, of which 3 withdrew before the first ballot of MPs. In 2016 Wikipedia says there were initially 9 candidates, of which 4 withdrew before the first ballot.
So far we are up to 11 declared candidates, which doesn't look as exceptional a number as I had thought.
So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
On the other hand, the whole business of Brexit is a farce, may as well have a clown in charge.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > If the Tories want to win a majority against Corbyn Boris remains by far their best bet, he has more charisma than the rest of the field put together and polling shows he is the candidate who would win back the most voters from the Brexit Party and increase the Tory voteshare the most. He is a Leaver committed to leaving the EU but not as hardline as say Baker or McVey as he voted for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3 and he is not a committed No Dealer either.
> >
> > If not Boris it will likely be Raab, one of them will almost certainly have the MPs to get to the final 2 with the support of hard Brexiteers and all the Tory membership polling shows whichever of them does would then trounce Hunt or Javid and comfortably beat Gove, their likely opponents from the Remain and Mayite loyalist wings of the party. If Gove is the Leaver in the final 2 then the membership likely votes for him over Hunt or Javid too. Leadsom would have a chance if she got to the final two but at the moment she trails badly with MPs with Heather Wheeler her sole endorsement.
> >
> > On the latest ConHome numbers Hunt currently leads with MPs on 29, Boris and Gove are tied for second on 26, then Raab is third on 22 with the rest of the field some way back with Javid next on 14 and Hancock on 11.
> >
> > https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/05/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
>
> Latest Tory membership polling here too
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
Boris's trouble is the bulk of Tory MPs hate him. Not just dislike - actively hate. We have had three wasted years, firstly in appointing May to prevent Boris getting the job, then keeping May in place to stop Boris replacing her. There were MPs swigging champers to celebrate after May survived in December. How has that worked out, huh? How is the polling looking, eh? Actual election results?
The Conservative Parliamentary Party has spent three years being bent all out of shape by Boris. Meanwhile, the membership looks to be a damned sight more politically astute than its MPs.
The MPs trouble is that without at least putting Boris to the membership, then the Conservative Party is at a very severe risk of being supplanted by the Brexit Party. At least if the members decide that's who they want, the MPs can shrug their shoulders and say "Told yer...." But at least there will still be something worth fighting over, when it comes to his replacement.
> Shami on R4 refusing to answer the question of which side Labour would support in the further referendum it is (almost) demanding. Not going to go down well with its members.
>
> Also refusing to say that she wants Alastair Campbell back as a member.
>
> She's a waste of space as an interviewee.
Well, one thing that puts me off the referendum demand from the People's Vote crowd is that they will instantly move on to demanding that we then pile in for Remain - as with all campaigns, it's dangerous to give a "There's no satisfying them!" impression. Campbell, to be fair, saw that and said that although that's what he'd like, he'd be perfectly happy if Labour were to endorse a referendum and then give members in effect a free vote.
On topic, while it's demonstrably true (LabourList poll, overwhelmingly) that Labour members worry most about Boris, that's because many members think the election is in the bag if there's a mediocre Tory leader, as the Tories are simply worn out. Boris will clearly both enthuse and horrify, and it's essentially a roll of the dice. My own view is that nothing is in the bag in our chaotic political situation, and Boris is a risk for us but it might go either way. Our chances would be best with a lacklustre Tory leader feebly limping along. I wouldn't be rude enough to suggest who might fill that bill, but there are some options.
But from the point of view of best for the country? Gove, obviously. Competent, intelligent, open-minded, a serious politician. Not photogenic and teachers hate him, but neither has been an insuperable bar to past Tory leaders (would you describe Hague, Howard or Major as cuties beloved by teachers?). I don't think he's marmite like Boris - people will in the end react well to competence.
> If the Tories want to win a majority against Corbyn Boris remains by far their best bet, he has more charisma than the rest of the field put together and polling shows he is the candidate who would win back the most voters from the Brexit Party and increase the Tory voteshare the most. He is a Leaver committed to leaving the EU but not as hardline as say Baker or McVey as he voted for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3 and is not a committed No Dealer either.
>
> If not Boris it will likely be Raab, one of them will almost certainly have the MPs to get to the final 2 with the support of hard Brexiteers and all the Tory membership polling shows whichever of them does would then trounce Hunt or Javid and comfortably beat Gove, their likely opponents from the Remain and Mayite loyalist wings of the party. If Gove is the Leaver in the final 2 then the membership likely votes for him over Hint or Javid too. Leadsom would have a chance if she got to the final two but at the moment she trails badly with MPs with Heather Wheeler her sole endorsement.
>
> On the latest ConHome numbers Hunt currently leads with MPs on 29, Boris and Gove are tied for second on 26, then Raab is third on 22 with the rest of the field some way back with Javid next on 14 and Hancock on 11.
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/05/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
Boris may win but I would pose this question. The televised debates for all the candidates will put each one in front of the public and there will inevitably be polls conducted during and following the debates the results of which could show Boris, Raab, McVey and others as complete vote losers and one candidate rises spectacularly demonstrating they could not only beat Corbyn but win an election outright
Do the members elect the absolute vote losers and ignore the winner, maybe even Rory
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > On topic I am not so sure. Boris has been all over the place on Brexit, he was an appalling Foreign Secretary, he is gaffe prone, not particularly moral and not as good at building alliances as you might expect and yet...
>
> >
>
> > 1. He can only be measured against the field. One of these numpties is our next PM. Who has the better claim?
>
> >
>
> > 2. He can legitimately claim to be a proven winner. Both as Mayor of London (twice) and as leader of the Vote Leave campaign he brought off unlikely victories against the odds. An unlikely victory against the odds is exactly what the Tories need for the next GE.
>
> >
>
> > 3. He is clever and colourful, always good copy for journalists. He used to be very amusing, but is less so now.
>
> >
>
> > 4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
>
> >
>
> > Personally, I would rather have Rory but he has no chance. I would rather have Gove but he is every bit as marmite as Boris. I thought Javid would be a stronger candidate than he has been to date. I would rather have Hunt but I seriously doubt that the party will accept another converted remainer after the May experience. I repeat, someone has to win. Boris is a genuine contender and in my view is probably correctly the favourite, even if his odds seem short.
>
>
>
> An appalling foreign Secretary? Better than David Miliband. He did secure a co-ordinated international response to the Novichok poisonings in Salisbury. And I note his successor and fellow candidate has not managed to come back from Tehran with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
>
>
>
> Boris is also the PM the EU dreads. They clearly had no dread of PM May - and look how that turned out...
>
> Better than David Miliband? Are these really the standards we want to set? Really?
They're circling the wagons. That's all. Who can blame them!
>
> The MPs trouble is that without at least putting Boris to the membership, then the Conservative Party is at a very severe risk of being supplanted by the Brexit Party. At least if the members decide that's who they want, the MPs can shrug their shoulders and say "Told yer...." But at least there will still be something worth fighting over, when it comes to his replacement.
>
Wouldn't that be to repeat the success of Labour's experiment with Corbyn?
> > @DavidL said:
> > On topic I am not so sure. Boris has been all over the place on Brexit, he was an appalling Foreign Secretary, he is gaffe prone, not particularly moral and not as good at building alliances as you might expect and yet...
> >
> > 1. He can only be measured against the field. One of these numpties is our next PM. Who has the better claim?
> >
> > 2. He can legitimately claim to be a proven winner. Both as Mayor of London (twice) and as leader of the Vote Leave campaign he brought off unlikely victories against the odds. An unlikely victory against the odds is exactly what the Tories need for the next GE.
> >
> > 3. He is clever and colourful, always good copy for journalists. He used to be very amusing, but is less so now.
> >
> > 4. There are a lot of Indians in the race at the moment but who are they most likely to put their weight behind when faced with their inevitable elimination?
> >
> > Personally, I would rather have Rory but he has no chance. I would rather have Gove but he is every bit as marmite as Boris. I thought Javid would be a stronger candidate than he has been to date. I would rather have Hunt but I seriously doubt that the party will accept another converted remainer after the May experience. I repeat, someone has to win. Boris is a genuine contender and in my view is probably correctly the favourite, even if his odds seem short.
>
> An appalling foreign Secretary? Better than David Miliband. He did secure a co-ordinated international response to the Novichok poisonings in Salisbury. And I note his successor and fellow candidate has not managed to come back from Tehran with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
>
> Boris is also the PM the EU dreads. They clearly had no dread of PM May - and look how that turned out...
The EU "dreads" Boris as PM. Based on what exactly, ss far as I can see they see him as the buffoon that most of us do.
The truly sad part of all this is that at this critical juncture the next PM is going to be chosen by the 0.2% of he population who are members of the Tory Party. Thank god for all our sakes that they at least had the wisdom to let the MPs whittle it down to 2 otherwise we'd be looking at PM Francois.
"Nice hatchet job job Ali."
..........................................................
Is the double "job" a not so subtle implication that Messr Meeks Meeks & Threadbare has done a political jobbie on Boris.
Very Mark Oaten ....
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Shami on R4 refusing to answer the question of which side Labour would support in the further referendum it is (almost) demanding. Not going to go down well with its members.
> >
> > Also refusing to say that she wants Alastair Campbell back as a member.
> >
> > She's a waste of space as an interviewee.
>
> Well, one thing that puts me off the referendum demand from the People's Vote crowd is that they will instantly move on to demanding that we then pile in for Remain - as with all campaigns, it's dangerous to give a "There's no satisfying them!" impression. Campbell, to be fair, saw that and said that although that's what he'd like, he'd be perfectly happy if Labour were to endorse a referendum and then give members in effect a free vote.
>
> On topic, while it's demonstrably true (LabourList poll, overwhelmingly) that Labour members worry most about Boris, that's because many members think the election is in the bag if there's a mediocre Tory leader, as the Tories are simply worn out. Boris will clearly both enthuse and horrify, and it's essentially a roll of the dice. My own view is that nothing is in the bag in our chaotic political situation, and Boris is a risk for us but it might go either way. Our chances would be best with a lacklustre Tory leader feebly limping along. I wouldn't be rude enough to suggest who might fill that bill, but there are some options.
>
> But from the point of view of best for the country? Gove, obviously. Competent, intelligent, open-minded, a serious politician. Not photogenic and teachers hate him, but neither has been an insuperable bar to past Tory leaders (would you describe Hague, Howard or Major as cuties beloved by teachers?). I don't think he's marmite like Boris - people will in the end react well to competence.
A very fair comment piece Nick and I agree that Gove would also be my choice
> Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
>
> So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
The whole thing is an utter nonsense
If he doesnt get through i hope whoever wins does not make the May mistake of giving him a top job. It didn't keep him on side and was pointless.
But some people really like him, he still rides on the successes he had years ago, so would probably win if he does get through.
Clearly they don’t think Bozo is the person to lead the country.
> I see that the Daily Express has become the Daily Esther.
>
> Clearly they don’t think Bozo is the person to lead the country.
I would suggest the vast majority of the country does not think he is the person to lead the country
> I see that the Daily Express has become the Daily Esther.
>
> Clearly they don’t think Bozo is the person to lead the country.
I’m an Esther investor.
If a single person of no particular fixed belief is all that will prevent being supplanted, then the party is already dead.
> Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
Edges us another notch up the October general election ladder...
Hes not entitled though.
> Boris could be a Romney - the electorate gives everyone else a good look in the hope of an alternative, but ultimately he is the last man standing
That is the risk. But the MPs seem determined to explore the alternatives very thoroughly.
To avoid misunderstanding, I'm not making a joke.
> Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
>
> Well he fears that hence the whinges from various quarters that he must be allowed through or the membership will go nuts.
>
> If he doesnt get through i hope whoever wins does not make the May mistake of giving him a top job. It didn't keep him on side and was pointless.
>
> But some people really like him, he still rides on the successes he had years ago, so would probably win if he does get through.
The way to get rid of him is to call an early election. There may of course be some collateral damage...
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
> >
> > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
>
> The whole thing is an utter nonsense
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
> >
> > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
>
> The whole thing is an utter nonsense
Nope the whole thing is because politicians have taken what was a legitimate exclusion from advertising laws (because a manifesto is a set of things that may or may not occur and campaigns are as much focusing on a viewpoint rather than anything else) and extended it to the point that they now state completely inaccurate statements as fact.
It's that latter bit that I believe is the reason behind the court case and personally I don't see the harm in insisting that where facts are actual politicians can't lie about them.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
>
> Edges us another notch up the October general election ladder...
I've actually been laying an October general election. It's 6.8 on betfair which seems very short for such a small timescale.
> Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
>
> Well he fears that hence the whinges from various quarters that he must be allowed through or the membership will go nuts.
>
> If he doesnt get through i hope whoever wins does not make the May mistake of giving him a top job. It didn't keep him on side and was pointless.
>
> But some people really like him, he still rides on the successes he had years ago, so would probably win if he does get through.
We are choosing the PM at a critical juncture in our history - frankly I couldn't't care less if the membership "go nuts" if Johnson is seen as not up to it by his own MPs and kept off the ballot.
As far as "going nuts" is concerned I wouldn't have thought many of them would have far to travel.
The party further not to let him through they'll let him.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
>
> > >
>
> > > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
>
> >
>
> > The whole thing is an utter nonsense
>
>
>
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
>
> > >
>
> > > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
>
> >
>
> > The whole thing is an utter nonsense
>
>
>
> Nope the whole thing is because politicians have taken what was a legitimate exclusion from advertising laws (because a manifesto is a set of things that may or may not occur and campaigns are as much focusing on a viewpoint rather than anything else) and extended it to the point that they now state completely inaccurate statements as fact.
>
>
>
> It's that latter bit that I believe is the reason behind the court case and personally I don't see the harm in insisting that where facts are actual politicians can't lie about them.
>
> The silly thing here is that if VoteLevae had just used the net figure of ~£250m a week the slogan would likely have been just as effective and avoided this whole issue.
You’re immediately going to walk into the other half of Leavers’ argument. They simultaneously believe that the lie was brilliantly clever and that lying should be consequence-free.
> Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
> > >
> > > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
> >
> > The whole thing is an utter nonsense
>
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
> > >
> > > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
> >
> > The whole thing is an utter nonsense
>
> Nope the whole thing is because politicians have taken what was a legitimate exclusion from advertising laws (because a manifesto is a set of things that may or may not occur and campaigns are as much focusing on a viewpoint rather than anything else) and extended it to the point that they now state completely inaccurate statements as fact.
>
> It's that latter bit that I believe is the reason behind the court case and personally I don't see the harm in insisting that where facts are actual politicians can't lie about them.
Surely people can't be suggesting that the same laws should apply to politicians as to the rest of us?
Outrageous!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > If the Tories want to win a majority against Corbyn Boris remains by far their best bet, he has more charisma than the rest of the field put together and polling shows he is the candidate who would win back the most voters from the Brexit Party and increase the Tory voteshare the most. He is a Leaver committed to leaving the EU but not as hardline as say Baker or McVey as he voted for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3 and he is not a committed No Dealer either.
> > >
> > > https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/05/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
> >
> > Latest Tory membership polling here too
> >
> > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
>
> Boris's trouble is the bulk of Tory MPs hate him. Not just dislike - actively hate. We have had three wasted years, firstly in appointing May to prevent Boris getting the job, then keeping May in place to stop Boris replacing her. There were MPs swigging champers to celebrate after May survived in December. How has that worked out, huh? How is the polling looking, eh? Actual election results?
>
>
>
It will be interesting if any of the contenders will promise to re-introduce party discipline to the parliamentary party and what boundaries they would tolerate within it.
It is obviously fraught with difficulty, but it is clearly part of the problem that different wings of the party are allowed to operate as independent parties and campaign openly against the government.
It is a possible differentiator for the likes of McVey who could say Hammond et al will be kicked out if they do not promise to support her on every VONC rather than waiting til it happens to split. That path obviously leads to the end of the government and possibly even Corbyn, not sure how it would play with the members, reading ConHome they would be delighted.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
>
> I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.
He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.
Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
> Suppose all of the declared candidates, and perhaps a few more, are in the first MPs ballot.
>
> How many votes will the first-placed candidate receive?
About 50.
So why make the PM a man whose support in parliament is not his strength?
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > If the Tories want to win a majority against Corbyn Boris remains by far their best bet, he has more charisma than the rest of the field put together and polling shows he is the candidate who would win back the most voters from the Brexit Party and increase the Tory voteshare the most. He is a Leaver committed to leaving the EU but not as hardline as say Baker or McVey as he voted for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3 and he is not a committed No Dealer either.
> > > >
> > > > https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/05/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
> > >
> > > Latest Tory membership polling here too
> > >
> > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
> >
> > Boris's trouble is the bulk of Tory MPs hate him. Not just dislike - actively hate. We have had three wasted years, firstly in appointing May to prevent Boris getting the job, then keeping May in place to stop Boris replacing her. There were MPs swigging champers to celebrate after May survived in December. How has that worked out, huh? How is the polling looking, eh? Actual election results?
> >
> >
> >
>
> It will be interesting if any of the contenders will promise to re-introduce party discipline to the parliamentary party and what boundaries they would tolerate within it.
>
> It is obviously fraught with difficulty, but it is clearly part of the problem that different wings of the party are allowed to operate as independent parties and campaign openly against the government.
>
> It is a possible differentiator for the likes of McVey who could say Hammond et al will be kicked out if they do not promise to support her on every VONC rather than waiting til it happens to split. That path obviously leads to the end of the government and possibly even Corbyn, not sure how it would play with the members, reading ConHome they would be delighted.
No Deal isn't a manifesto commitment - which would make forcing it through awkward.
Equally while you really shouldn't VONC your new leader its not as if you've campaigned for your seat with that leader as the leader of the party.
> I think this contest, as crowded as the field is at the moment, could well end in another coronation.
>
> If the final two aren't both equally hardline on Brexit, then the more pragmatic contender could easily conclude that they have no chance in the membership ballot and withdraw in favour of their opponent, presumably in exchange for a senior cabinet role. A coronation would also have the considerable advantage of getting the new leader in place and Mrs May packed off back to Berkshire as rapidly as possible.
>
> Leadsom as PM and Gove as Chancellor, perhaps?
I don't think another coronation is tenable.
Alternatively Lewis Hamilton is 1.25 for the F1 Drivers’ championship, which at this point is pretty much betting against him getting injured. Pays out no later than November.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
> >
> > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
>
> Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.
>
> He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.
>
> Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
I would guess she would still have first dibs on proposing the PM as leader of the biggest party, if she could not be PM herself? Would she try and appoint someone (Gove, Javid?) she can work with and could command a commons majority? Then Corbyn would try and fail. Then the Letwin et al gang could try which would lead to revoke/a very long extension and a GE.
Farage would be delighted.
And it is this that will lead to Corbyn, as it will split the usual core tory vote thus handing a majority to Corbyn that I do not believe he could otherwise achieve.
Therefore, however unpalatable this may sound, the new leader needs to bring the more moderate right back into the tory stable. As the last elections have just demonstrated this is not a small fringe, it is a third of the country, and if all could be persuaded to vote, maybe even enough to win an election on their own. So far, the attitude of many on the "centrist" wing of the conservative party is either to pretend that this group doesn't exist, or to attempt to stick every single one of them in a box named "racist" or "xenophobic". As we have seen in the USA this will only serve to make the voters angrier and more determined.
If Boris manages to make it through this contest then he will have demonstrated many of the capabilities required, as he will have everything thrown at him during this process - from his own side, from the media, and even from mendacious court cases. I think there is a good chance that he will withdraw as a result of the above, but if he makes it through sufficiently unscathed to get through to the final 2, I would be confident he is the right man for the job. Despite his weaknesses, he is a fairly centrist politician but one who can bring the right on board and someone who might be able to sell an unpalatable solution on Brexit if needed. Most importantly, he is a winner. Two mayoral elections in a labour city and the Brexit referendum is already a good CV, and if he wins this contest that will be four notable achievements, enough to give me.confidence that he can defeat the far left and the far right, which at the moment for me trumps ideological purity.
> > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
>
> >
>
> > Edges us another notch up the October general election ladder...
>
>
>
> I've actually been laying an October general election. It's 6.8 on betfair which seems very short for such a small timescale.
>
> 2019 election is 3.4 to back (3.65 to lay) at the moment, which I think might have some value. There’s going to be another crunch in October whatever happens, and it it quite possible that an election is the only way to solve the impasse.
>
In theory a GE does sound like a good way past the impasse but in practical terms it is very likely to be another hung parliament across both party and Brexit resolution lines. Nothing will change.
> Fans of Rory Stewart may be interested to note he is on Question Time tonight. Compare and contrast with fellow panellist Barry Gardiner.
Practically a standup show, that is.
> Do the members elect the absolute vote losers and ignore the winner, maybe even Rory
>
> We’re talking about the membership that selected Iain Duncan Smith.
There's probably been some turnover in Membership since then ...