> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @EmptyNester said: > > Fans of Rory Stewart may be interested to note he is on Question Time tonight. Compare and contrast with fellow panellist Barry Gardiner. > > Practically a standup show, that is.
> I've actually been laying an October general election. It's 6.8 on betfair which seems very short for such a small timescale.
> 2019 election is 3.4 to back (3.65 to lay) at the moment, which I think might have some value. There’s going to be another crunch in October whatever happens, and it it quite possible that an election is the only way to solve the impasse.
In theory a GE does sound like a good way past the impasse but in practical terms it is very likely to be another hung parliament across both party and Brexit resolution lines. Nothing will change.
The problem is that something has to change.
Unless we can get the EU to change the WA it’s not going to pass this Parliament, and there’s no majority for either no deal or abandoning Brexit, the only option left becomes electing a new Parliament.
It’s also possible that the government might have their hand forced, by defections or loss of the DUP support leading to a vote of no confidence in October.
> @another_richard said: > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> @Sandpit said: > > @Sandpit said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Edges us another notch up the October general election ladder... > > > > > > > > > > > > I've actually been laying an October general election. It's 6.8 on betfair which seems very short for such a small timescale. > > > > > > 2019 election is 3.4 to back (3.65 to lay) at the moment, which I think might have some value. There’s going to be another crunch in October whatever happens, and it it quite possible that an election is the only way to solve the impasse. > > > > > > > In theory a GE does sound like a good way past the impasse but in practical terms it is very likely to be another hung parliament across both party and Brexit resolution lines. Nothing will change. > > The problem is that something has to change. > > Unless we can get the EU to change the WA it’s not going to pass this Parliament, and there’s no majority for either no deal or abandoning Brexit, the only option left becomes electing a new Parliament. > > It’s also possible that the government might have their hand force, by defections or loss of the DUP support leading to a vote of no confidence in October.
No dealers may realise that their best chance of delivering no deal (if that is what they really really want) is to switch to a referendum. It is an obvious switch, and would move the chances of no deal brexit up to somewhere between 30 & 40%.
I dont know if the commons would allow a remain v no deal referendum yet, but it would be very hard for the opposition referendum supporters to be against that without looking bad.
> @another_richard said: > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
Martin Lewis has just been on BBC pointing out it's overall against the interests of graduates who don't become high earners, although obviously grants will help the poorest.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @another_richard said: > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > Martin Lewis has just been on BBC pointing out it's overall against the interests of graduates who don't become high earners, although obviously grants will help the poorest.
Yes it is smoke and mirrors. People look at the headline fees but the real cost is completely different, this would be a regressive move increasing the cost of university and targetting the increase on the poorest. Typical of the country that we cant even be honest when we keep shafting workers but spin it that we are helping them.
> @nichomar said: > Rock on Rory “no dealers are snake oil salesmen”
You listen to this guy methodically debunking all this magical thinking and there's so much honesty and common sense, and you wish it could be someone like that, then you realize his proposal is to get the EU to renegotiate the WA.
Edit: Apparently I'm full of shit, see responses above
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @nichomar said: > > Rock on Rory “no dealers are snake oil salesmen” > > You listen to this guy methodically debunking all this magical thinking and there's so much honesty and common sense, and you wish it could be someone like that, then you realize his proposal is to get the EU to renegotiate the WA.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest > > > > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it? > > Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky. > > He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history. > > Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
The whole thing is a right mess, but cutting the fees while keeping the rest of the system the same isn’t going to help.
Someone needs to have a good long think about how higher education should work in the future, with inputs from all sectors. Personally I’d like to see a much bigger choice of institutions, qualifications, courses and timescales.
> @TGOHF said: > Politics needs to take a back seat until the cricket world cup is over. But yeah Boris ain't all that. > > Hope Gove wins - gawd help us all if he doesn't. > > >
We could have a new PM by the time the tournament finishes.
> @AndyJS said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > Suppose all of the declared candidates, and perhaps a few more, are in the first MPs ballot. > > > > How many votes will the first-placed candidate receive? > > About 50.
So the final two candidates will likely have to attract more transfer support than they start with. I think the situation is set up for someone to surprise and gather momentum and leave the favourites behind.
> @Sandpit said: > Bizarre choice of words from Ruth’s deputy. > > > > ttps://twitter.com/scotlandtonight/status/1133857767708680192 > > > > There’s definitely a disturbing recent trend towards violent metaphors, politicians should really learn to tone down their language a little.
This is I’m afraid a standard feature for how the three Better Together parties talk about their pro-independence opponents.
Scots are so used to their aggression that they tend not to even notice it. I’m afraid that the signs are that such hatred-language is going to be pretty much standard in England too from now on.
Incidentally, if you want to see a good example of their wall-to-wall aggression and negativity, take a look at Ruth Davidson’s widely-shared Euro election address. A stunning piece of literature. She comes across as a quite deluded ball of frustration and hatred. Might help explain the SCon Euro election result.
> @AndyJS said: > > @TGOHF said: > > Politics needs to take a back seat until the cricket world cup is over. But yeah Boris ain't all that. > > > > Hope Gove wins - gawd help us all if he doesn't. > > > > > > > > We could have a new PM by the time the tournament finishes.
> I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
>
> It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
> @tlg86 said: > > @another_richard said: > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
You can be sure that the first increase in repayment period would not be the last.
It would almost certainly be subsequently increased up to the state retirement age.
> @TGOHF said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest > > > > > > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it? > > > > Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky. > > > > He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history. > > > > Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther > > I hope his local party deselects him pronto.
There are upwards of 40 conservatives who will do the same. Brexiteers need to understand no deal will not happen and maybe, as has been suggested, pivot to a referendum
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Sandpit said: > > > @Sandpit said: > > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Edges us another notch up the October general election ladder... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I've actually been laying an October general election. It's 6.8 on betfair which seems very short for such a small timescale. > > > > > > > > > > 2019 election is 3.4 to back (3.65 to lay) at the moment, which I think might have some value. There’s going to be another crunch in October whatever happens, and it it quite possible that an election is the only way to solve the impasse. > > > > > > > > > > > > > In theory a GE does sound like a good way past the impasse but in practical terms it is very likely to be another hung parliament across both party and Brexit resolution lines. Nothing will change. > > > > The problem is that something has to change. > > > > Unless we can get the EU to change the WA it’s not going to pass this Parliament, and there’s no majority for either no deal or abandoning Brexit, the only option left becomes electing a new Parliament. > > > > It’s also possible that the government might have their hand force, by defections or loss of the DUP support leading to a vote of no confidence in October. > > No dealers may realise that their best chance of delivering no deal (if that is what they really really want) is to switch to a referendum. It is an obvious switch, and would move the chances of no deal brexit up to somewhere between 30 & 40%. > > I dont know if the commons would allow a remain v no deal referendum yet, but it would be very hard for the opposition referendum supporters to be against that without looking bad.
It's possible no-dealers would switch to supporting a referendum, but then likely that instead of their being no majority in parliament for any type of Brexit, there will be no majority in parliament for any type of referendum. I guess 3 or more realistic options with some kind of approval voting would be the method most likely to satisfy most of the public, but fat chance of getting politicians to agree.
> There are upwards of 40 conservatives who will do the same. Brexiteers need to understand no deal will not happen and maybe, as has been suggested, pivot to a referendum
> @Pulpstar said: > > @another_richard said: > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
> @JohnLoony said: > Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party. A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila.
> @Fenster said: > If Boris gets to the final two it'll be a big tick in his box because I've no doubt he has to do some hard work and major persuasion to get there. > > I agree with Alastair that the pure Leavers aren't sure about him. Boris is too liberal for the hardcore, and in their view, too pliable.
The worry is this hard work will be done by shady oligarch petroroubles rather than by Johnson building consensus around his -- haha -- vision.
> @TGOHF said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > There are upwards of 40 conservatives who will do the same. Brexiteers need to understand no deal will not happen and maybe, as has been suggested, pivot to a referendum > > "No Hammond is better than bad Hammond" > > That would win someone the leadership.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years. > > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
They've taken an unnecessary hit and now will be defenseless if we crash out at the end of October. Good news for all the unicorn cake Brexit supporters who will be insisting its all project fear when the last people working in industry are the official receivers
> @moonshine said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > > > > > > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > > > > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years. > > > > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young. > > Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
If most graduates are re-paying the loan from the age of 21 to 61 you may as well call it a tax and be done with it. And it would have the advantage in that it would keep those who earn enough to repay the entire loan off would keep paying the tax resulting in more of the debt being paid off.
Personally though I'm shocked as to how bad the new scheme is - the old scheme was bad but at least in their 50's people could use the money they no longer paid to their loan to add to their pension and wouldn't notice the difference.
> @moonshine said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > > > > > > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > > > > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years. > > > > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young. > > Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
Three quarters of graduates do not pay back their loans. What is paid back is already paid as part of PAYE as effective income tax. The rest is wrtitten off by the Treasury.
Why should 60 year olds earning £100k not have to pay for their university education when 25 years olds earning £25k do? It makes no sense to me unless you take account that far more 60 year olds vote than 25 year olds.....it was never a fair way to introduce this.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @Sandpit said: > > Bizarre choice of words from Ruth’s deputy. > > > > > > > > ttps://twitter.com/scotlandtonight/status/1133857767708680192 > > > > > > > > There’s definitely a disturbing recent trend towards violent metaphors, politicians should really learn to tone down their language a little. > > This is I’m afraid a standard feature for how the three Better Together parties talk about their pro-independence opponents. > > Scots are so used to their aggression that they tend not to even notice it. > I’m afraid that the signs are that such hatred-language is going to be pretty much standard in England too from now on. > > Incidentally, if you want to see a good example of their wall-to-wall aggression and negativity, take a look at Ruth Davidson’s widely-shared Euro election address. A stunning piece of literature. She comes across as a quite deluded ball of frustration and hatred. Might help explain the SCon Euro election result.
Given Carlaw's stint as stand in for Ruth, the idea that he could murder anything other than a pie supper is pretty out there.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years. > > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
Applying a graduate tax retrospectively would be electorally 'brave'.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @JohnLoony said: > > Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs. > > > Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party. > A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila.
Last decent Tory leader, in fact the only decent Tory leader of my adult lifetime, was John Major. He did surprisingly well in Scotland. Scots tend to value integrity, quiet competence and dutifulness. I can’t wait to see the Scottish VI breaks if Boris, Gove or Raab take over.
> They've taken an unnecessary hit and now will be defenseless if we crash out at the end of October. Good news for all the unicorn cake Brexit supporters who will be insisting its all project fear when the last people working in industry are the official receivers
If you get past the remoaner frothing it is the figures for one single month. Where there were planned shutdowns for line upgrades.
"The SMMT estimated production for the whole of 2019 would be about 10% down on last year."
Germany will be down a similar figure.
Perhaps we should crowdfund a case against Scott and Gavin ?
> > There are upwards of 40 conservatives who will do the same. Brexiteers need to understand no deal will not happen and maybe, as has been suggested, pivot to a referendum
> @moonshine said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > > > > > > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > > > > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years. > > > > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young. > > Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
only for those people who have gone to university, and in return for wiping their student debt.
You do realise my student loans get paid out of my PAYE right?
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @Sandpit said: > > > Bizarre choice of words from Ruth’s deputy. > > > > > > > > > > > > ttps://twitter.com/scotlandtonight/status/1133857767708680192 > > > > > > > > > > > > There’s definitely a disturbing recent trend towards violent metaphors, politicians should really learn to tone down their language a little. > > > > This is I’m afraid a standard feature for how the three Better Together parties talk about their pro-independence opponents. > > > > Scots are so used to their aggression that they tend not to even notice it. > > I’m afraid that the signs are that such hatred-language is going to be pretty much standard in England too from now on. > > > > Incidentally, if you want to see a good example of their wall-to-wall aggression and negativity, take a look at Ruth Davidson’s widely-shared Euro election address. A stunning piece of literature. She comes across as a quite deluded ball of frustration and hatred. Might help explain the SCon Euro election result. > > > Given Carlaw's stint as stand in for Ruth, the idea that he could murder anything other than a pie supper is pretty out there.
> @moonshine said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > > > > > > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > > > > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years. > > > > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young. > > Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
Defenders of student fees always say they're just a graduate tax in disguise, but when confronted with the idea of an actual graduate tax, which isn't regressive above a certain income and which applies to all graduates rather than just those of a particular generation, they suddenly aren't so interested
What is revealing about student debt is how few Conservatives wish to discuss it - not just the politicians but also people who normally defend anything the Conservatives do.
They really shat the bed on this issue.
But wishing it would go away wont help when each year you're forcing another tranche of students into that bed.
> @another_richard said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular. > > > > > > > > > > > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest. > > > > > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years. > > > > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young. > > Applying a graduate tax retrospectively would be electorally 'brave'.
Maybe if our politicians led, persuaded and were brave they would be more respected? Has governing by listening to opinion polls and following the path of least resistance done much for our country or the politicians standing?
Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
> @Sandpit said: > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young. > > That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
The current system kinda gives you the answers there, Sandpit.
Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it.
> @Black_Rook said: > I think this contest, as crowded as the field is at the moment, could well end in another coronation. > > If the final two aren't both equally hardline on Brexit, then the more pragmatic contender could easily conclude that they have no chance in the membership ballot and withdraw in favour of their opponent, presumably in exchange for a senior cabinet role. A coronation would also have the considerable advantage of getting the new leader in place and Mrs May packed off back to Berkshire as rapidly as possible. > > Leadsom as PM and Gove as Chancellor, perhaps?
Leadsom winning in a coronation would be ironic given the way the previous contest ended.
> @Roger said: > If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it.
> > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
> >
> > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
>
> Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.
>
> He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.
>
> Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
I hope his local party deselects him pronto.
For a hypothetical VONC? How about if Soubry was still in the party, standing for leader promising revoke if she won? Should Baker be deselected if he said he would VONC her if she became leader?
> @StuartDickson said: > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > @JohnLoony said: > > > Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs. > > > > > > Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party. > > A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila. > > Last decent Tory leader, in fact the only decent Tory leader of my adult lifetime, was John Major. He did surprisingly well in Scotland. Scots tend to value integrity, quiet competence and dutifulness. I can’t wait to see the Scottish VI breaks if Boris, Gove or Raab take over. > >
Given the Brexit Party were second in Scotland last week ahead of the Tories being a Brexiteer is by no means fatal to Tory prospects North of the border, indeed I suspect a majority of Scottish Tory voters in 2017 voted Leave
> @Benpointer said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%. > > > > > > > > > > > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that. > > > > > > Except it's not just a one month fall: > > > > I hadn't realised there was such sustained growht 2016-17 (is that about the pound?) > > I wouldn't have thought so... that growth is steepest before June 23rd 2016 when the pound dropped suddenly.
> @Roger said: > If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it.
Jo Johnson is down as a Boris supporter according to both Guido and Wikipedia.
If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it.
I thought JoJo was on record as endorsing Boris?
(Still endorsing and voting for might not be the same thing in a secret ballot!)
Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
I have an acquaintance who is arch Tory who actually praises his granddaughter for going abroad and not paying her loan back. He was shocked when I said that it might not be illegal but it was immoral and unfair on those who stay here contributing to the society that educated them.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > Off topic but really important. Please would nobody comment today on how well English batsman (insert name) is doing? We know what happens then...
> @Selebian said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest > > > > > > > > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it? > > > > > > Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky. > > > > > > He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history. > > > > > > Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther > > > > I hope his local party deselects him pronto. > > For a hypothetical VONC? How about if Soubry was still in the party, standing for leader promising revoke if she won? Should Baker be deselected if he said he would VONC her if she became leader?
Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
I have an acquaintance who is arch Tory who actually praises his granddaughter for going abroad and not paying her loan back. He was shocked when I said that it might not be illegal but it was immoral and unfair on those who stay here contributing to the society that educated them.
Well, you did say he was an arch Tory... not really fair to expect him to be in favour of morality and fairness!
> @Freggles said: > Boris could be a Romney - the electorate gives everyone else a good look in the hope of an alternative, but ultimately he is the last man standing
Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway.
Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull
If the membership start to realise Brexit wont happen in October and that the leading candidates (possibly bar Gove?) are promising that it definitely will, I am not sure how they respond. Hammond is probably way down the list of potential VONC remainers so it is fair to assume the number of Tory MPs who would block no deal is 20+ and there is no path for WA agreement to be ratified by October.
Do the members actually want Brexit (in which case pick someone with a plan) or to vent every day how unfair it is that Brexit is not happening (in which case Boris or Raab).
Can any of the outsiders give a more realistic plan which will undoubtedly involve a further delay whilst maintaining their credibility as a leaver.
If the membership start to realise Brexit wont happen in October and that the leading candidates (possibly bar Gove?) are promising that it definitely will, I am not sure how they respond. Hammond is probably way down the list of potential VONC remainers so it is fair to assume the number of Tory MPs who would block no deal is 20+ and there is no path for WA agreement to be ratified by October.
Do the members actually want Brexit (in which case pick someone with a plan) or to vent every day how unfair it is that Brexit is not happening (in which case Boris or Raab).
Can any of the outsiders give a more realistic plan which will undoubtedly involve a further delay whilst maintaining their credibility as a leaver.
It should be an interesting contest.
It's all going to end in another referendum (which I suspect the Deal will win).
Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
I have an acquaintance who is arch Tory who actually praises his granddaughter for going abroad and not paying her loan back. He was shocked when I said that it might not be illegal but it was immoral and unfair on those who stay here contributing to the society that educated them.
There’s plenty of young Brits in the sandpit countries (where there’s no income tax) who talk of staying away from the UK long enough to not have to pay back student loans.
> @Benpointer said: > If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it. > > I thought JoJo was on record as endorsing Boris? > > (Still endorsing and voting for might not be the same thing in a secret ballot!)
JoJo wants a cabinet position.
He's been listening to BoJo's instructions since Boris flounced last summer.
> @HYUFD said: > > @nico67 said: > > Not a Tory voter but Rory Stewart continues to impress . > > > > Unfortunately he’s far too sane and sensible so has no chance . > > Would you vote Tory if Rory was leader though?
Yes would be a switcher from LD at last GE and Green at the Euros (have also voted Tory and Labour in the past). Think he is the best politician in parliament at the moment. Would make a great LD leader, possibly better at that than Tory leader....
> > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
> >
> > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
> > Newsnight seemed to imply that Boris wouldn't be appearing in court until after the leadership election (felt like late Summer/early Autumn was probable timeline)
> >
> > So if Boris does get the leadership we could see the Prime Minister going to court and taking the witness stand which would be somewhat unusual....
>
> The whole thing is an utter nonsense
Nope the whole thing is because politicians have taken what was a legitimate exclusion from advertising laws (because a manifesto is a set of things that may or may not occur and campaigns are as much focusing on a viewpoint rather than anything else) and extended it to the point that they now state completely inaccurate statements as fact.
It's that latter bit that I believe is the reason behind the court case and personally I don't see the harm in insisting that where facts are actual politicians can't lie about them.
The silly thing here is that if VoteLevae had just used the net figure of ~£250m a week the slogan would likely have been just as effective and avoided this whole issue.
And made no difference anyway as outside inner London most people still think £250 million is a lot of money!
The point was highlighting we are a net contributor and what we pay to subsidise French farmers, the Slovak motorway network or the Madrid metro could in theory be spent instead on the NHS.
£250m or £350m or in reality a moving figures which changes yearly but only ever goes up rather misses the point.
> @Benpointer said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Not a Tory voter but Rory Stewart continues to impress . > > > > > > Unfortunately he’s far too sane and sensible so has no chance . > > > > Would you vote Tory if Rory was leader though? > > I wouldn't* but there are plenty of centrist voters across the country who would imo. > > (*Unless the Tories radically changed a lot of their policies.)
Like who? Unless Rory wins enough LD and Labour voters to makeup for Tory voters lost to the Brexit Party he is not the answer to winning a Tory majority decent though he is.
Rory is the Liz Kendall of this race, non Tories love him just as non Labour voters loved Kendall
> @HYUFD said: > Given the Brexit Party were second in Scotland last week ahead of the Tories being a Brexiteer is by no means fatal to Tory prospects North of the border, indeed I suspect a majority of Scottish Tory voters in 2017 voted Leave
We were discussing a Tory leader being an untrustworthy, incapable, careerist opportunist rather than a Brexiteer, though if you're suggesting that there's a connection...
A majority of 29% is still a pretty small chunk of the total vote. Parties concerned with governing in Scotland should have bigger fish to fry.
For anyone genuinely interested in the Irish border issue this article is very good on why technology is not going to solve anything for the foreseeable future:
> @Benpointer said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%. > > > > > > > > > > > > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that. > > > > > > Except it's not just a one month fall: > > > > The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless. > > > > Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW. > > > > At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment. > > "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.
I think we will see motorway driving automated for most drivers within a generation. But yes, difficult to see cars in central London being the same.
> @another_richard said: > What is revealing about student debt is how few Conservatives wish to discuss it - not just the politicians but also people who normally defend anything the Conservatives do. > > They really shat the bed on this issue. > > But wishing it would go away wont help when each year you're forcing another tranche of students into that bed.
The Government review today does at least promise to cut fees to £7500 and restore the maintenance grant for poorer students
> > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
>
> > >
>
> > > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
>
> >
>
> > Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.
>
> >
>
> > He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.
>
> >
>
> > Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
>
>
>
> I hope his local party deselects him pronto.
>
> For a hypothetical VONC? How about if Soubry was still in the party, standing for leader promising revoke if she won? Should Baker be deselected if he said he would VONC her if she became leader?
Has he ever said that ?
That’s why Hammond should stand, he won’t win but it would be a good measure of no no deal is. MPs are scared of going public because of deselection fears but could send clear message in a secret ballot.
> @Sandpit said: > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young. > > That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed? > > I have an acquaintance who is arch Tory who actually praises his granddaughter for going abroad and not paying her loan back. He was shocked when I said that it might not be illegal but it was immoral and unfair on those who stay here contributing to the society that educated them. > > There’s plenty of young Brits in the sandpit countries (where there’s no income tax) who talk of staying away from the UK long enough to not have to pay back student loans.
I think they should be paying and remain liable but may well get away with it. Guess if they are falsely declaring anything it could move into fraud as well, but again most would get away with it.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Freggles said: > > Boris could be a Romney - the electorate gives everyone else a good look in the hope of an alternative, but ultimately he is the last man standing > > Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway. > > Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull
If Johnson loses the popular vote by as big a margin as Trump did then the Tories will be in very serious trouble.
Comments
Hope Gove wins - gawd help us all if he doesn't.
> > @EmptyNester said:
> > Fans of Rory Stewart may be interested to note he is on Question Time tonight. Compare and contrast with fellow panellist Barry Gardiner.
>
> Practically a standup show, that is.
Jo Swinson as well.
Unless we can get the EU to change the WA it’s not going to pass this Parliament, and there’s no majority for either no deal or abandoning Brexit, the only option left becomes electing a new Parliament.
It’s also possible that the government might have their hand forced, by defections or loss of the DUP support leading to a vote of no confidence in October.
I would expect in the televised debates he will be very successful
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
>
> I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
>
> It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> > @Sandpit said:
>
> > > @GIN1138 said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> >
>
> > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Edges us another notch up the October general election ladder...
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I've actually been laying an October general election. It's 6.8 on betfair which seems very short for such a small timescale.
>
> >
>
> > 2019 election is 3.4 to back (3.65 to lay) at the moment, which I think might have some value. There’s going to be another crunch in October whatever happens, and it it quite possible that an election is the only way to solve the impasse.
>
> >
>
>
>
> In theory a GE does sound like a good way past the impasse but in practical terms it is very likely to be another hung parliament across both party and Brexit resolution lines. Nothing will change.
>
> The problem is that something has to change.
>
> Unless we can get the EU to change the WA it’s not going to pass this Parliament, and there’s no majority for either no deal or abandoning Brexit, the only option left becomes electing a new Parliament.
>
> It’s also possible that the government might have their hand force, by defections or loss of the DUP support leading to a vote of no confidence in October.
No dealers may realise that their best chance of delivering no deal (if that is what they really really want) is to switch to a referendum. It is an obvious switch, and would move the chances of no deal brexit up to somewhere between 30 & 40%.
I dont know if the commons would allow a remain v no deal referendum yet, but it would be very hard for the opposition referendum supporters to be against that without looking bad.
> I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
>
> I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
>
> It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
Martin Lewis has just been on BBC pointing out it's overall against the interests of graduates who don't become high earners, although obviously grants will help the poorest.
> > @another_richard said:
> > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> >
> > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> >
> > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
>
> Martin Lewis has just been on BBC pointing out it's overall against the interests of graduates who don't become high earners, although obviously grants will help the poorest.
Yes it is smoke and mirrors. People look at the headline fees but the real cost is completely different, this would be a regressive move increasing the cost of university and targetting the increase on the poorest. Typical of the country that we cant even be honest when we keep shafting workers but spin it that we are helping them.
> Rock on Rory “no dealers are snake oil salesmen”
You listen to this guy methodically debunking all this magical thinking and there's so much honesty and common sense, and you wish it could be someone like that, then you realize his proposal is to get the EU to renegotiate the WA.
Edit: Apparently I'm full of shit, see responses above
> > @nichomar said:
> > Rock on Rory “no dealers are snake oil salesmen”
>
> You listen to this guy methodically debunking all this magical thinking and there's so much honesty and common sense, and you wish it could be someone like that, then you realize his proposal is to get the EU to renegotiate the WA.
He has just said it is not!
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
> >
> > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
>
> Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.
>
> He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.
>
> Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
I hope his local party deselects him pronto.
> He has just said it is not!
Sorry, my bad. What does he propose to do?
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > He has just said it is not!
>
> Sorry, my bad. What does he propose to do?
Convince Lisa Nandy et al to vote for it! Via citizens jury. Like the idea but 12 months too late.
Someone needs to have a good long think about how higher education should work in the future, with inputs from all sectors. Personally I’d like to see a much bigger choice of institutions, qualifications, courses and timescales.
"Will Phil Hammond be anywhere near the cabinet ?"
Anyone answering yes can be filed under "NO"
> How many ovens does Boris have? That seems to be the key Tory metric.
And are there any buns in them?
> Politics needs to take a back seat until the cricket world cup is over. But yeah Boris ain't all that.
>
> Hope Gove wins - gawd help us all if he doesn't.
>
>
>
We could have a new PM by the time the tournament finishes.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > Suppose all of the declared candidates, and perhaps a few more, are in the first MPs ballot.
> >
> > How many votes will the first-placed candidate receive?
>
> About 50.
So the final two candidates will likely have to attract more transfer support than they start with. I think the situation is set up for someone to surprise and gather momentum and leave the favourites behind.
> Bizarre choice of words from Ruth’s deputy.
>
>
>
> ttps://twitter.com/scotlandtonight/status/1133857767708680192
>
>
>
> There’s definitely a disturbing recent trend towards violent metaphors, politicians should really learn to tone down their language a little.
This is I’m afraid a standard feature for how the three Better Together parties talk about their pro-independence opponents.
Scots are so used to their aggression that they tend not to even notice it.
I’m afraid that the signs are that such hatred-language is going to be pretty much standard in England too from now on.
Incidentally, if you want to see a good example of their wall-to-wall aggression and negativity, take a look at Ruth Davidson’s widely-shared Euro election address. A stunning piece of literature. She comes across as a quite deluded ball of frustration and hatred. Might help explain the SCon Euro election result.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Politics needs to take a back seat until the cricket world cup is over. But yeah Boris ain't all that.
> >
> > Hope Gove wins - gawd help us all if he doesn't.
> >
> >
> >
>
> We could have a new PM by the time the tournament finishes.
We could have two!
> > @another_richard said:
> > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> >
> > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> >
> > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
>
> I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
You can be sure that the first increase in repayment period would not be the last.
It would almost certainly be subsequently increased up to the state retirement age.
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/icc-cricket-world-cup
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
> > >
> > > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
> >
> > Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.
> >
> > He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.
> >
> > Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
>
> I hope his local party deselects him pronto.
There are upwards of 40 conservatives who will do the same. Brexiteers need to understand no deal will not happen and maybe, as has been suggested, pivot to a referendum
> > @Sandpit said:
> > > @Sandpit said:
> >
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > Edges us another notch up the October general election ladder...
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I've actually been laying an October general election. It's 6.8 on betfair which seems very short for such a small timescale.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > 2019 election is 3.4 to back (3.65 to lay) at the moment, which I think might have some value. There’s going to be another crunch in October whatever happens, and it it quite possible that an election is the only way to solve the impasse.
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > In theory a GE does sound like a good way past the impasse but in practical terms it is very likely to be another hung parliament across both party and Brexit resolution lines. Nothing will change.
> >
> > The problem is that something has to change.
> >
> > Unless we can get the EU to change the WA it’s not going to pass this Parliament, and there’s no majority for either no deal or abandoning Brexit, the only option left becomes electing a new Parliament.
> >
> > It’s also possible that the government might have their hand force, by defections or loss of the DUP support leading to a vote of no confidence in October.
>
> No dealers may realise that their best chance of delivering no deal (if that is what they really really want) is to switch to a referendum. It is an obvious switch, and would move the chances of no deal brexit up to somewhere between 30 & 40%.
>
> I dont know if the commons would allow a remain v no deal referendum yet, but it would be very hard for the opposition referendum supporters to be against that without looking bad.
It's possible no-dealers would switch to supporting a referendum, but then likely that instead of their being no majority in parliament for any type of Brexit, there will be no majority in parliament for any type of referendum. I guess 3 or more realistic options with some kind of approval voting would be the method most likely to satisfy most of the public, but fat chance of getting politicians to agree.
> https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704
Good news for the environment.
> There are upwards of 40 conservatives who will do the same. Brexiteers need to understand no deal will not happen and maybe, as has been suggested, pivot to a referendum
"No Hammond is better than bad Hammond"
That would win someone the leadership.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
>
> >
>
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
>
> >
>
> > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
>
> >
>
> > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
>
>
>
> I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
>
> It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
I agree with Alastair that the pure Leavers aren't sure about him. Boris is too liberal for the hardcore, and in their view, too pliable.
Unfortunately he’s far too sane and sensible so has no chance .
> Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party.
A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila.
> Good news for the environment.
Can't wait for Scott to publish the Europe wide figures - they are boooooming right ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/11/german-industry-slumps-january-car-makers-stall/
Desperate stuff as usual from remoan central.
> If Boris gets to the final two it'll be a big tick in his box because I've no doubt he has to do some hard work and major persuasion to get there.
>
> I agree with Alastair that the pure Leavers aren't sure about him. Boris is too liberal for the hardcore, and in their view, too pliable.
The worry is this hard work will be done by shady oligarch petroroubles rather than by Johnson building consensus around his -- haha -- vision.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > There are upwards of 40 conservatives who will do the same. Brexiteers need to understand no deal will not happen and maybe, as has been suggested, pivot to a referendum
>
> "No Hammond is better than bad Hammond"
>
> That would win someone the leadership.
No Boris is better than bad Boris !!!
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> >
> > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> >
> >
> >
> > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> >
> > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
>
> Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
> https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704
They've taken an unnecessary hit and now will be defenseless if we crash out at the end of October. Good news for all the unicorn cake Brexit supporters who will be insisting its all project fear when the last people working in industry are the official receivers
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> > >
> > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
> >
> > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
>
> Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
If most graduates are re-paying the loan from the age of 21 to 61 you may as well call it a tax and be done with it.
And it would have the advantage in that it would keep those who earn enough to repay the entire loan off would keep paying the tax resulting in more of the debt being paid off.
Personally though I'm shocked as to how bad the new scheme is - the old scheme was bad but at least in their 50's people could use the money they no longer paid to their loan to add to their pension and wouldn't notice the difference.
> https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704
Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> > >
> > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
> >
> > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
>
> Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
Three quarters of graduates do not pay back their loans. What is paid back is already paid as part of PAYE as effective income tax. The rest is wrtitten off by the Treasury.
Why should 60 year olds earning £100k not have to pay for their university education when 25 years olds earning £25k do? It makes no sense to me unless you take account that far more 60 year olds vote than 25 year olds.....it was never a fair way to introduce this.
> > @Sandpit said:
> > Bizarre choice of words from Ruth’s deputy.
> >
> >
> >
> > ttps://twitter.com/scotlandtonight/status/1133857767708680192
> >
> >
> >
> > There’s definitely a disturbing recent trend towards violent metaphors, politicians should really learn to tone down their language a little.
>
> This is I’m afraid a standard feature for how the three Better Together parties talk about their pro-independence opponents.
>
> Scots are so used to their aggression that they tend not to even notice it.
> I’m afraid that the signs are that such hatred-language is going to be pretty much standard in England too from now on.
>
> Incidentally, if you want to see a good example of their wall-to-wall aggression and negativity, take a look at Ruth Davidson’s widely-shared Euro election address. A stunning piece of literature. She comes across as a quite deluded ball of frustration and hatred. Might help explain the SCon Euro election result.
Given Carlaw's stint as stand in for Ruth, the idea that he could murder anything other than a pie supper is pretty out there.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> >
> > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> >
> >
> >
> > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> >
> > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
>
> Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
Applying a graduate tax retrospectively would be electorally 'brave'.
> > @JohnLoony said:
> > Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
>
>
> Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party.
> A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila.
Last decent Tory leader, in fact the only decent Tory leader of my adult lifetime, was John Major. He did surprisingly well in Scotland. Scots tend to value integrity, quiet competence and dutifulness. I can’t wait to see the Scottish VI breaks if Boris, Gove or Raab take over.
> They've taken an unnecessary hit and now will be defenseless if we crash out at the end of October. Good news for all the unicorn cake Brexit supporters who will be insisting its all project fear when the last people working in industry are the official receivers
If you get past the remoaner frothing it is the figures for one single month. Where there were planned shutdowns for line upgrades.
"The SMMT estimated production for the whole of 2019 would be about 10% down on last year."
Germany will be down a similar figure.
Perhaps we should crowdfund a case against Scott and Gavin ?
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> > >
> > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
> >
> > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
>
> Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
only for those people who have gone to university, and in return for wiping their student debt.
You do realise my student loans get paid out of my PAYE right?
We basically already have a graduate tax.
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @Sandpit said:
> > > Bizarre choice of words from Ruth’s deputy.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ttps://twitter.com/scotlandtonight/status/1133857767708680192
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > There’s definitely a disturbing recent trend towards violent metaphors, politicians should really learn to tone down their language a little.
> >
> > This is I’m afraid a standard feature for how the three Better Together parties talk about their pro-independence opponents.
> >
> > Scots are so used to their aggression that they tend not to even notice it.
> > I’m afraid that the signs are that such hatred-language is going to be pretty much standard in England too from now on.
> >
> > Incidentally, if you want to see a good example of their wall-to-wall aggression and negativity, take a look at Ruth Davidson’s widely-shared Euro election address. A stunning piece of literature. She comes across as a quite deluded ball of frustration and hatred. Might help explain the SCon Euro election result.
>
>
> Given Carlaw's stint as stand in for Ruth, the idea that he could murder anything other than a pie supper is pretty out there.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/851332833201270790
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> > >
> > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
> >
> > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
>
> Translation: let's just smack up income taxes. Glad you're not in charge of the Treasury.
Defenders of student fees always say they're just a graduate tax in disguise, but when confronted with the idea of an actual graduate tax, which isn't regressive above a certain income and which applies to all graduates rather than just those of a particular generation, they suddenly aren't so interested
They really shat the bed on this issue.
But wishing it would go away wont help when each year you're forcing another tranche of students into that bed.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > > I see that increasing the student debt repayment period to FORTY years is now being suggested:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I wonder if any of the Conservative candidates have anything to say about student fees ?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It strikes me that if one of them promised big cuts here it might be rather popular.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I heard on the news the suggestion that fees should be capped at £7,500. I didn't hear the suggestion that graduates should be liable for the loans for 40 years rather than 30 years. Once again we have a proposal that would benefit high earners over the rest.
> > >
> > > It's a huge political mess with younger voters. Like Brexit there is no easy way out. The Lib Dems have washed themselves in the well of EU purity, which has got younger voters back onside for now, but this will kill the Tories with young graduates (Not a natural target group I admit) for years.
> >
> > Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
>
> Applying a graduate tax retrospectively would be electorally 'brave'.
Maybe if our politicians led, persuaded and were brave they would be more respected? Has governing by listening to opinion polls and following the path of least resistance done much for our country or the politicians standing?
https://twitter.com/LukeGrahamMP/status/1133870245775663106
> Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
>
> That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
The current system kinda gives you the answers there, Sandpit.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704
>
>
>
>
>
> Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
>
>
>
> We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
>
> Except it's not just a one month fall:
I hadn't realised there was such sustained growht 2016-17 (is that about the pound?)
... says our local Gulf resident
Edit. Lest we forget....
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-radio-4-eddie-mair-two-ronnies_uk_594aa62ce4b0a3a837bc61d5
> I think this contest, as crowded as the field is at the moment, could well end in another coronation.
>
> If the final two aren't both equally hardline on Brexit, then the more pragmatic contender could easily conclude that they have no chance in the membership ballot and withdraw in favour of their opponent, presumably in exchange for a senior cabinet role. A coronation would also have the considerable advantage of getting the new leader in place and Mrs May packed off back to Berkshire as rapidly as possible.
>
> Leadsom as PM and Gove as Chancellor, perhaps?
Leadsom winning in a coronation would be ironic given the way the previous contest ended.
> If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it.
His sister isn't a member.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > @JohnLoony said:
> > > Boris is an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist, and I have always believed that he will not be in the two final candidates selected by MPs.
> >
> >
> > Shame, on recent evidence an untrustworthy incapable careerist and opportunist is ideal to lead the Conservative party.
> > A pinch of May, a dollop of Cam, a smear of IDS, voila.
>
> Last decent Tory leader, in fact the only decent Tory leader of my adult lifetime, was John Major. He did surprisingly well in Scotland. Scots tend to value integrity, quiet competence and dutifulness. I can’t wait to see the Scottish VI breaks if Boris, Gove or Raab take over.
>
>
Given the Brexit Party were second in Scotland last week ahead of the Tories being a Brexiteer is by no means fatal to Tory prospects North of the border, indeed I suspect a majority of Scottish Tory voters in 2017 voted Leave
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
>
> >
>
> > Except it's not just a one month fall:
>
>
>
> I hadn't realised there was such sustained growht 2016-17 (is that about the pound?)
>
> I wouldn't have thought so... that growth is steepest before June 23rd 2016 when the pound dropped suddenly.
True, true.
> Not a Tory voter but Rory Stewart continues to impress .
>
> Unfortunately he’s far too sane and sensible so has no chance .
Would you vote Tory if Rory was leader though?
> If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it.
Jo Johnson is down as a Boris supporter according to both Guido and Wikipedia.
(Still endorsing and voting for might not be the same thing in a secret ballot!)
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1134016378250375168
> Off topic but really important. Please would nobody comment today on how well English batsman (insert name) is doing? We know what happens then...
They're all doing amazingly
(*Unless the Tories radically changed a lot of their policies.)
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @nico67 said:
>
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > > Hammond fires broadside on no dealers confirming he will vote against the government in a vonc on no deal in the national interest
>
> > >
>
> > > I know he muted this last Sunday but has he spoken further since about it?
>
> >
>
> > Yes, clearly and unequivocally today on Sky.
>
> >
>
> > He will vonc a no deal PM which should give us the shortest time in Office in recent history.
>
> >
>
> > Hello Esther, Goodbye Esther
>
>
>
> I hope his local party deselects him pronto.
>
> For a hypothetical VONC? How about if Soubry was still in the party, standing for leader promising revoke if she won? Should Baker be deselected if he said he would VONC her if she became leader?
Has he ever said that ?
> Boris could be a Romney - the electorate gives everyone else a good look in the hope of an alternative, but ultimately he is the last man standing
Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway.
Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull
> Important point. Will the membership listen to this kind of argument? Erm.. No.
>
> https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1134016378250375168
If the membership start to realise Brexit wont happen in October and that the leading candidates (possibly bar Gove?) are promising that it definitely will, I am not sure how they respond. Hammond is probably way down the list of potential VONC remainers so it is fair to assume the number of Tory MPs who would block no deal is 20+ and there is no path for WA agreement to be ratified by October.
Do the members actually want Brexit (in which case pick someone with a plan) or to vent every day how unfair it is that Brexit is not happening (in which case Boris or Raab).
Can any of the outsiders give a more realistic plan which will undoubtedly involve a further delay whilst maintaining their credibility as a leaver.
It should be an interesting contest.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.117991336
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704
>
>
>
>
>
> Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
>
>
>
> We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
>
> Except it's not just a one month fall:
The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.
Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.
At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.
> If Boris's problems ended with him being a narcissist with appaling judgement loathed by those he would have to get on with then you could say he's not much different to Thatcher. But he's more than that. He's a liar a cheat totally amoral and for the country quite dangerous. I know his sister as a member wont vote for him but I wonder whether his MP brother will? I doubt it.
>
> I thought JoJo was on record as endorsing Boris?
>
> (Still endorsing and voting for might not be the same thing in a secret ballot!)
JoJo wants a cabinet position.
He's been listening to BoJo's instructions since Boris flounced last summer.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Not a Tory voter but Rory Stewart continues to impress .
> >
> > Unfortunately he’s far too sane and sensible so has no chance .
>
> Would you vote Tory if Rory was leader though?
Yes would be a switcher from LD at last GE and Green at the Euros (have also voted Tory and Labour in the past). Think he is the best politician in parliament at the moment. Would make a great LD leader, possibly better at that than Tory leader....
The point was highlighting we are a net contributor and what we pay to subsidise French farmers, the Slovak motorway network or the Madrid metro could in theory be spent instead on the NHS.
£250m or £350m or in reality a moving figures which changes yearly but only ever goes up rather misses the point.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Not a Tory voter but Rory Stewart continues to impress .
>
> >
>
> > Unfortunately he’s far too sane and sensible so has no chance .
>
>
>
> Would you vote Tory if Rory was leader though?
>
> I wouldn't* but there are plenty of centrist voters across the country who would imo.
>
> (*Unless the Tories radically changed a lot of their policies.)
Like who? Unless Rory wins enough LD and Labour voters to makeup for Tory voters lost to the Brexit Party he is not the answer to winning a Tory majority decent though he is.
Rory is the Liz Kendall of this race, non Tories love him just as non Labour voters loved Kendall
> Given the Brexit Party were second in Scotland last week ahead of the Tories being a Brexiteer is by no means fatal to Tory prospects North of the border, indeed I suspect a majority of Scottish Tory voters in 2017 voted Leave
We were discussing a Tory leader being an untrustworthy, incapable, careerist opportunist rather than a Brexiteer, though if you're suggesting that there's a connection...
A majority of 29% is still a pretty small chunk of the total vote. Parties concerned with governing in Scotland should have bigger fish to fry.
> England 11/5 to win the tournament.
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> https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.117991336
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> That’s way too short!
Should we lay England?
https://www.cer.eu/insights/northern-ireland-and-backstop-why-alternative-arrangements-arent-alternative
> > @Benpointer said:
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> > > @Scott_P said:
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> > > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1134012346802888704
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> > Which means that next month UK car production will increase by about 80%.
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> > We'll look out for pasted tweets reporting that.
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> > Except it's not just a one month fall:
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> The car industry is dealing with two paradigm shifts - to electric and to driverless.
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> Hence the turmoil throughout the world, for example the proposed Fiat-Chrysler-Renault-Nissan merger and the big jobs losses announced by Ford and VW.
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> At the UK level it looks as though there was over-expansion after 2010 - it take several years for output to follow investment.
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> "...to driverless" Haha... Not going to happen in our lifetimes.
I think we will see motorway driving automated for most drivers within a generation. But yes, difficult to see cars in central London being the same.
> What is revealing about student debt is how few Conservatives wish to discuss it - not just the politicians but also people who normally defend anything the Conservatives do.
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> They really shat the bed on this issue.
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> But wishing it would go away wont help when each year you're forcing another tranche of students into that bed.
The Government review today does at least promise to cut fees to £7500 and restore the maintenance grant for poorer students
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48451474
> Switching to a graduate tax is the simplest answer. The current system is broadly a graduate tax dressed as a loan system which creates scenarios that are way too complicated for people to easily grasp, especially those with an aversion to loans. And lets make the graduate tax apply to anyone of any age, not just the young.
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> That also creates its own problems, for example how does a graduate tax not simply become a driver of emigration and do immigrants pay higher taxes if they have degrees, and how does this get policed?
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> I have an acquaintance who is arch Tory who actually praises his granddaughter for going abroad and not paying her loan back. He was shocked when I said that it might not be illegal but it was immoral and unfair on those who stay here contributing to the society that educated them.
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> There’s plenty of young Brits in the sandpit countries (where there’s no income tax) who talk of staying away from the UK long enough to not have to pay back student loans.
I think they should be paying and remain liable but may well get away with it. Guess if they are falsely declaring anything it could move into fraud as well, but again most would get away with it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2824568/Now-student-loans-company-plans-hire-bailiffs-overseas-chase-British-graduates-moved.html
> > @Freggles said:
> > Boris could be a Romney - the electorate gives everyone else a good look in the hope of an alternative, but ultimately he is the last man standing
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> Boris is a Trump, both charismatic populists and the GOP establishment hated Trump much as much of the Tory establishment hates Boris but he still won the party leadership and the general election anyway.
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> Hunt is a Romney, the Tory establishment love him just as the GOP establishment loved Romney but the party base did not, despite supposedly being the most 'electable' Romney lost the general election after winning the nomination. Romney and Hunt are also similar backgrounds, elite education followed by a business career but they both are more CEO than PM and dull
If Johnson loses the popular vote by as big a margin as Trump did then the Tories will be in very serious trouble.