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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first consequence of the Euros – LAB appears to be edging closer to a second referendum
Corbyn's team said the John McDonnell tweet this morning demanding public vote meant "both a general election, which is our preference, or a referendum"
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Comments
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First like The Brexit Party0
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Second like the upcoming referendum.0
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"assuming that McDonnell is talking for the leadership"
Hmmmm...0 -
How slowly can one party edge into something? Just bloody do it already. Pretending they can their own deal is dumb, and while a GE could happen it is clear most in Labour would demand they be for remain in that situation, not for a renegotiation. The handful of Labour leavers will have to suck it up, the remainer side in the party have one, can they stomach that? It's the same for the Tories, the no dealers are in the ascendant, there's no point pretending all can be accomodated under the same policy, so will the remainers act appropriately?0
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I really don't think McD is "talking for the leadership"
This is Kremlinology, and one cannot be sure, but I think there is now a mortal struggle going on, at the top of the Labour Party. It ties in with rumours of McDonnell cussing out Milne, etc.0 -
35% voted for No Deal, yet Farage believes he has a mandate for it.0
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Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
They never learn...0 -
They've wibbled this way before. If they want it, they can vote for it.
We'll see if they vote for it.
I suspect this is just a plea for Remainers to come back. But they seem to have realised Labour doesn't actually (it's leadership, at least) to remain at all.0 -
Someone sent me this... is it accurate?GIN1138 said:Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
They never learn...
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> @GIN1138 said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more...
> <
++++
It may be the only way of solving this crisis, without destroying the UK and badly damaging the economy. I don't like it, one bit, it is an insult to democracy, but the break-up of the country would be even worse.
And if the people choose No Deal, then so be it.
I've tried hard, but I cannot think of another way out.0 -
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Above all, McD wants to win, probably far more than Jezza.Byronic said:I really don't think McD is "talking for the leadership"
This is Kremlinology, and one cannot be sure, but I think there is now a mortal struggle going on, at the top of the Labour Party. It ties in with rumours of McDonnell cussing out Milne, etc.
If he has decided that the runes say Jezza won't get them over the line, then who knows...0 -
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> @GIN1138 said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
> They never learn...
>
28/73 is not a "thumping najority"0 -
> @GIN1138 said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
> They never learn...
>
Such a thumping 12% majority that it took them to a grand total of 32% of the votes cast, 35% if you include UKIP.
Some way from a majority.0 -
Mr. Gin, if it's Remain versus May's Deal, I think Remain has a strong chance of success.
Mr. P, Erdogan's doing that for... I think it's the mayoralty of Istanbul, or similar.0 -
> @GIN1138 said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
> They never learn...
>
A vote share of 31.6% is not a majority. You do the math.0 -
FSVO "accurate". It shows the no. 1 party in each counting area, which is of course a fairly pointless metric in massive multi-member constituencies. If Brexit got 50% everywhere, Lib Dems 49.9%, and Labour 0.1% (...it may happenisam said:
Someone sent me this... is it accurate?GIN1138 said:Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
They never learn...
), then the whole map would be Brexit-blue but the seats pretty evenly split. 0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> it is an insult to democracy
>
> Asking people to vote cannot by definition be an insult to democracy.<
++++
Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy. You know this, but you are blinded by your hatred of Brexit.
But, I am coming round to the idea that it must be done, for the sake of the nation and the economy. We are facing a total deadlock. Something must give.
If anyone has an alternative, I'd love to hear it. They could also send it to the Conservative Party HQ, as they apparently have no cunning ideas, either.0 -
> @isam said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
>
>
> They never learn...
>
> Someone sent me this... is it accurate?
Yes - Northern Ireland has now been officially removed from the UK, to make the Brexit Party's percentage look better.0 -
> @GIN1138 said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
> They never learn...
>
It is not really. Farage won the poll but the collective of the remain parties polled as well if not better. John Curtice stated earlier today that both leave and remain will argue they won when in fact there is no evidence either won by any margin.
In these circumstances the call for another referendum is not as you describe but inevitable in the circumstances. I should point out I do not agree with another referendum but the remainers claims are as legitimate as brexit no deal ones0 -
BBC: Brexit Party is now the single largest party in the European Parliament.0
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> @rottenborough said:
> I really don't think McD is "talking for the leadership"
>
>
>
> This is Kremlinology, and one cannot be sure, but I think there is now a mortal struggle going on, at the top of the Labour Party. It ties in with rumours of McDonnell cussing out Milne, etc.
>
> Above all, McD wants to win, probably far more than Jezza.
>
> If he has decided that the runes say Jezza won't get them over the line, then who knows...
And McD is a Remainer. As is Abbott. The Left at the top of the Party is as utterly split on this as the rest of the country is. Ultimately, though there is only one winner...where the votes are.
So Jezza, Milne, McCluskey will bend or be gone. Cos it just ain't working anymore.0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1133018525705166855<;
++++
Bloody hell.0 -
If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.Byronic said:Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.0 -
Rory seems to be enjoying himself this afternoon walking the streets of Barking, explaining his leadership run.0
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> @Byronic said:
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1133018525705166855<;
>
> ++++
>
> Bloody hell.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/05/lord-ashcroft-my-eu-election-poll-most-former-tory-voters-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party-at-the-next-election.html
The above is the full article.0 -
> @MikeSmithson said:
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> >
> > They never learn...
> >
>
> A vote share of 31.6% is not a majority. You do the math.
Sorry I should have said the Brexit Party won with a thumping 12% Lead not majority (I'm sure sure knew what I meant but I'm happy to clarify)
In a FPTP general election the Brexit Party would have secured a landslide...0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
It's not as though the Tory Brexiteers even voted to leave when they had the chance!0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
Except leaving the EU is easy, MPs just need to walk into the Aye lobby. They just don't want to do it.0 -
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> >
> > They never learn...
> >
>
> It is not really. Farage won the poll but the collective of the remain parties polled as well if not better. John Curtice stated earlier today that both leave and remain will argue they won when in fact there is no evidence either won by any margin.
>
> In these circumstances the call for another referendum is not as you describe but inevitable in the circumstances. I should point out I do not agree with another referendum but the remainers claims are as legitimate as brexit no deal ones
Yep. I have always been against another referendum. In fact I'm against them full stop. But I don't see any other way out now. A GE would probably just produce another draw.0 -
> @isam said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
>
>
> They never learn...
>
> Someone sent me this... is it accurate?
They've forgotten to fill in the Western Isles, but other than that, yes. It's an accurate depiction of the party collecting the greatest number of votes in each of the counting areas in Great Britain.
The Conservative rosette is missing as they didn't come top in any of them. For comparison, Plaid Cymru and the Greens managed three apiece.0 -
> @isam said:
> https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1133016212156428291
****************************************************************************************
The full paper is fascinating.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/my-euro-election-post-vote-poll-most-tory-switchers-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party/
A 10,000 sample taken after they'd voted at the Euros.
When asked which party they would vote for next time in a GE, there was some leakage of TBP back to Tories but not much leakage away from LD .
Shares were:
Con 18%
Lab 21%
LD/ChUK 21%
Brex/UKIP 21%
Green 7%
A threeway dead heat. Does this produce a really hung parliament?
Using Baxter (this is fun I've no idea what it will give) ....... gives:
Con 144
Lab 255
LD/ChUK 73
Brex/UKIP 98
Green 1
SNP 56
PC 5
NI 18
Poor Greens! No party with a majority. Tories without a hope of a minority government. Labour several options .0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1133018525705166855<;
++++
If you Baxter that poll it gives Labour 277 seats, the Tories 196, and BXP 50, which just goes to show that Baxtering simply doesn't work at this level of disintegration.
It's like we are entering a new, bizarre, quantum realm of politics.0 -
We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.Scott_P said:
If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.Byronic said:Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.0 -
> @Barnesian said:
>
> A threeway dead heat. Does this produce a really hung parliament?
>
> Using Baxter (this is fun I've no idea what it will give) ....... gives:
>
> Con 144
> Lab 255
> LD/ChUK 73
> Brex/UKIP 98
> Green 1
> SNP 56
> PC 5
> NI 18
>
> Poor Greens! No party with a majority. Tories without a hope of a minority government. Labour several options .<
+++++
I got a very different Baxtering result! I think we have broken the calculus. Or, rather, the voters have.0 -
> @Morris_Dancer said:
> Mr. Gin, if it's Remain versus May's Deal, I think Remain has a strong chance of success.
>
Who's going to put May's deal on the ballot paper given she's got the boot? 0 -
> @GIN1138 said:
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> > >
> > > They never learn...
> > >
> >
> > A vote share of 31.6% is not a majority. You do the math.
>
> Sorry I should have said the Brexit Party won with a thumping 12% Lead not majority (I'm sure sure knew what I mean but I'm happy to clarify)
>
> In a FPTP general election the Brexit Party would have secured a landslide...
And if this were an absolute monarchy and Nigel Farage had inherited the throne we'd all have to lie on our bellies whenever we were in his presence.1 -
That GE looks further away by the minute...Byronic said:0 -
> @isam said:
> Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
>
> We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.
>
> That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.
Complain to Jacob Rees-Mogg, not to us.0 -
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> @Black_Rook said:
> "assuming that McDonnell is talking for the leadership"
>
> Hmmmm...
For the new leadership0 -
Ashcroft's diagrams will be seized upon by Boris.0
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Yep. It's not impossible to leave the EU. Parliament approved the referendum, backed A50, most of our MPs stood on a manifesto to deliver Brexit, and an agreement between the UK government and the EU has been reached. To my eyes Brexit looks easily deliverable, whether it proves any good is another matter.RobD said:> @Scott_P said:
> Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
Except leaving the EU is easy, MPs just need to walk into the Aye lobby. They just don't want to do it.
So why hasn't Brexit happened? Because something like 70% of MPs don't want it to, and are doing all they can to stop it happening short of Revoking A50.0 -
Mr. Gin, MPs who have to have another option and who loathe the idea of leaving with no deal.0
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> @dixiedean said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> > >
> > > They never learn...
> > >
> >
> > It is not really. Farage won the poll but the collective of the remain parties polled as well if not better. John Curtice stated earlier today that both leave and remain will argue they won when in fact there is no evidence either won by any margin.
> >
> > In these circumstances the call for another referendum is not as you describe but inevitable in the circumstances. I should point out I do not agree with another referendum but the remainers claims are as legitimate as brexit no deal ones
>
> Yep. I have always been against another referendum. In fact I'm against them full stop. But I don't see any other way out now. A GE would probably just produce another draw.
Of course, unless the second referendum produces a crushing majority for one side over the other, then the demands for the third referendum will begin the following day. And on it goes...
EDIT: and what is the referendum question going to be? If it doesn't include the No Deal option, which it almost certainly wouldn't, then at least a third of the country will regard the outcome as totally illegitimate, and the situation might even get worse0 -
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> @rottenborough said:
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1133018525705166855
>
>
>
>
>
> ++++
>
>
>
> Bloody hell.
>
> That GE looks further away by the minute...<
++++
Indeed. No way either "main" party will want to face the voters, at least until Brexit is delivered (or cancelled)0 -
I
If only the ERG had voted against the deal, it would have passed by a huge marginChris said:> @isam said:
> Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
>
> We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.
>
> That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.
Complain to Jacob Rees-Mogg, not to us.0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1133018525705166855
>
>
>
>
>
> ++++
>
>
>
> Bloody hell.
>
> That GE looks further away by the minute...
You can throw away your seat calculators under a four-way tie like that. Anything could happen.0 -
No Deal is the permanent and settled will of the people. Anyone saying otherwise should have his name and address put on a register for public scrutiny.0
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Hopefully after the 5th referendum our politicians might start considering something like EFTA.Black_Rook said:EDIT: and what is the referendum question going to be? If it doesn't include the No Deal option, which it almost certainly wouldn't, then at least a third of the country will regard the outcome as totally illegitimate, and the situation might even get worse
0 -
> @GIN1138 said:
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> > >
> > > They never learn...
> > >
> >
> > A vote share of 31.6% is not a majority. You do the math.
>
> Sorry I should have said the Brexit Party won with a thumping 12% Lead not majority (I'm sure sure knew what I meant but I'm happy to clarify)
>
> In a FPTP general election the Brexit Party would have secured a landslide...
You are assuming that the voters would have voted the same way had this been a GE.0 -
Missing In Action :
Unless I have missed the announcements I have not seen any comment by either Great Uncle Vince Cable or The Great She-Bot of Downing Street.
Perhaps the Yellow Resurgent One is overseeing an orgy of incoming nationwide bar charts and therefore partly understandable, if a horrifying prospect.
However what is excuse for our Prime Minister (in name only) ?0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.<
++++
A once-in-a-generation referendum is completely different to a regular general election. To my mind.
But we must agree to disagree.0 -
> @Black_Rook said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> > > >
> > > > They never learn...
> > > >
> > >
> > > It is not really. Farage won the poll but the collective of the remain parties polled as well if not better. John Curtice stated earlier today that both leave and remain will argue they won when in fact there is no evidence either won by any margin.
> > >
> > > In these circumstances the call for another referendum is not as you describe but inevitable in the circumstances. I should point out I do not agree with another referendum but the remainers claims are as legitimate as brexit no deal ones
> >
> > Yep. I have always been against another referendum. In fact I'm against them full stop. But I don't see any other way out now. A GE would probably just produce another draw.
>
> Of course, unless the second referendum produces a crushing majority for one side over the other, then the demands for the third referendum will begin the following day. And on it goes...
>
> EDIT: and what is the referendum question going to be? If it doesn't include the No Deal option, which it almost certainly wouldn't, then at least a third of the country will regard the outcome as totally illegitimate, and the situation might even get worse
Also, suppose Remain wins 52/48 why won earth should that be the end of the matter given the way Leaver voters have had their original vote ignored?
What happens if there's a 52/48 remain win followed within a year or two later by the election of a Brexit Party government?0 -
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1132973543157841920JackW said:Missing In Action :
Unless I have missed the announcements I have not seen any comment by either Great Uncle Vince Cable or The Great She-Bot of Downing Street.
Perhaps the Yellow Resurgent One is overseeing an orgy of incoming nationwide bar charts and therefore partly understandable, if a horrifying prospect.
However what is excuse for our Prime Minister (in name only) ?0 -
Eileen Paisley, widow of Ian Paisley, says that a united Ireland would be acceptable if there were freedom of religion.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/united-ireland-acceptable-to-eileen-paisley-if-there-is-freedom-of-religion-38149393.html
<i>"It is a big question. If we go right back to the beginning, the dividing of Ireland. The people or Ireland, north, south, east and west, I think are a great people.
"No matter what part of Ireland a person is from.. they are a fellow country man or woman.
"I just wonder why it had to be divided at that time and I think that was the wrong division. It is too big an issue for me to pontificate on."</i>0 -
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> @isam said:
> I > @isam said:
>
> > Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> >
>
> > If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> >
>
> > That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> >
>
> > You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
>
> >
>
> > We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.
>
> >
>
> > That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.
>
>
>
> Complain to Jacob Rees-Mogg, not to us.
>
> If only the ERG had voted against the deal, it would have passed by a huge margin
Oh well - cc in whatever other Tories you think are an affront or whatever.
The whole thing was just a Tory wheeze to try to boost their public support by a few points. They've greatly damaged the country and probably destroyed themselves into the bargain. I suggest you complain to the people who are to blame for this nightmare.0 -
-
> @Black_Rook said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> > > >
> > > > They never learn...
> > > >
> > >
> > > It is not really. Farage won the poll but the collective of the remain parties polled as well if not better. John Curtice stated earlier today that both leave and remain will argue they won when in fact there is no evidence either won by any margin.
> > >
> > > In these circumstances the call for another referendum is not as you describe but inevitable in the circumstances. I should point out I do not agree with another referendum but the remainers claims are as legitimate as brexit no deal ones
> >
> > Yep. I have always been against another referendum. In fact I'm against them full stop. But I don't see any other way out now. A GE would probably just produce another draw.
>
> Of course, unless the second referendum produces a crushing majority for one side over the other, then the demands for the third referendum will begin the following day. And on it goes...
>
> EDIT: and what is the referendum question going to be? If it doesn't include the No Deal option, which it almost certainly wouldn't, then at least a third of the country will regard the outcome as totally illegitimate, and the situation might even get worse
Yep. I get all that. I guess that's why I never really was instinctively in favour. We really are snookered, aren't we?0 -
I’ll just vote for BXP like the other millionsChris said:> @isam said:
> I > @isam
> > Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
> > If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again
> > That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy
> > You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason
> > We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.
> > That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.
> Complain to Jacob Rees-Mogg, not to us.
>
> If only the ERG had voted against the deal, it would have passed by a huge margin
Oh well - cc in whatever other Tories you think are an affront or whatever.
The whole thing was just a Tory wheeze to try to boost their public support by a few points. They've greatly damaged the country and probably destroyed themselves into the bargain. I suggest you complain to the people who are to blame for this nightmare.0 -
The next two big events are the Peterborough by-election and the Tory leadership contest to get the final two candidates.0
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0
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> @Scott_P said:
> Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again.
>
> That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy.
>
> You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason.
You keep repeating this but it is obviously bollocks. We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
The correct analogy is voting for an MP and then being told they are not acceptable as our representative because the other MPs don't like them and we must vote again until we choose the right person.0 -
> @GIN1138 said:
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
> > > > >
> > > > > They never learn...
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > It is not really. Farage won the poll but the collective of the remain parties polled as well if not better. John Curtice stated earlier today that both leave and remain will argue they won when in fact there is no evidence either won by any margin.
> > > >
> > > > In these circumstances the call for another referendum is not as you describe but inevitable in the circumstances. I should point out I do not agree with another referendum but the remainers claims are as legitimate as brexit no deal ones
> > >
> > > Yep. I have always been against another referendum. In fact I'm against them full stop. But I don't see any other way out now. A GE would probably just produce another draw.
> >
> > Of course, unless the second referendum produces a crushing majority for one side over the other, then the demands for the third referendum will begin the following day. And on it goes...
> >
> > EDIT: and what is the referendum question going to be? If it doesn't include the No Deal option, which it almost certainly wouldn't, then at least a third of the country will regard the outcome as totally illegitimate, and the situation might even get worse
>
> Also, suppose Remain wins 52/48 why won earth should that be the end of the matter given the way Leaver voters have had their original vote ignored?
>
> What happens if there's a 52/48 remain win followed within a year or two later by the election of a Brexit Party government?
Well. The ideal would be a Party winning a majority on a clear and unambiguous Brexit policy with a plan to carry it out...and we wait.0 -
> @Byronic said:
> > @Barnesian said:
>
> >
> > A threeway dead heat. Does this produce a really hung parliament?
> >
> > Using Baxter (this is fun I've no idea what it will give) ....... gives:
> >
> > Con 144
> > Lab 255
> > LD/ChUK 73
> > Brex/UKIP 98
> > Green 1
> > SNP 56
> > PC 5
> > NI 18
> >
> > Poor Greens! No party with a majority. Tories without a hope of a minority government. Labour several options .<
>
> +++++
>
> I got a very different Baxtering result! I think we have broken the calculus. Or, rather, the voters have.
I added LD and ChUK and also Brex and UKIP and I think you just used the figures as given. I was assuming some tactical arrangement.
It's good fun. It's not real though.0 -
> @isam said:
> > @isam said:
>
> > I > @isam
> > > Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> > > If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again
> > > That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy
> > > You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason
> > > We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.
>
> > > That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.
>
> > Complain to Jacob Rees-Mogg, not to us.
>
> >
>
> > If only the ERG had voted against the deal, it would have passed by a huge margin
>
>
>
> Oh well - cc in whatever other Tories you think are an affront or whatever.
>
>
>
> The whole thing was just a Tory wheeze to try to boost their public support by a few points. They've greatly damaged the country and probably destroyed themselves into the bargain. I suggest you complain to the people who are to blame for this nightmare.
>
> I’ll just vote for BXP like the other millions
Please do. Nothing could please me more than half the Tory party carrying on voting for the Brexit Party for the rest of their lives!0 -
And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.Richard_Tyndall said:We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
Democracy is not insulted.0 -
Mr. P, ha. I said something similar to my mother when we were discussing politics. Sturgeon probably wakes up and thinks the day having a Y in it strengthens the case for another referendum.
Still, give her credit for consistency. She wants to ignore what the Scots want when they vote to stay in the UK and what the British want when they vote to leave the EU.0 -
-
The power of JackW ....
Up pops Great Uncle Vince Cable on Sky News ....
0 -
-
> @Scott_P said:
> it is an insult to democracy
>
> Asking people to vote cannot by definition be an insult to democracy.
Hey comrade. Listen again as clearly you don't understand this democracy thing. Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
Well not unless you are living in North Korea.0 -
It's quite possible that the next government, or the one after, will put a commitment in their manifesto to reverse whatever is the current state of play. We could be ping-ponging between Leaving and Remaining in the EU for many years to come.GIN1138 said:What happens if there's a 52/48 remain win followed within a year or two later by the election of a Brexit Party government?
0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> Missing In Action :
>
>
>
> Unless I have missed the announcements I have not seen any comment by either Great Uncle Vince Cable or The Great She-Bot of Downing Street.
>
>
>
> Perhaps the Yellow Resurgent One is overseeing an orgy of incoming nationwide bar charts and therefore partly understandable, if a horrifying prospect.
>
>
>
> However what is excuse for our Prime Minister (in name only) ?
>
> https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1132973543157841920
...............................................................................
Shabby .... some Downing Street flunky issues a tweet. At least Jezza fronted up and talked bollocks to the camera !!0 -
Mr. glw, just like the Tudor period and religion. Well. Hopefully with less burning.0
-
> @AndyJS said:
> The next two big events are the Peterborough by-election and the Tory leadership contest to get the final two candidates.
Just for discussion this is how Peterborugh voted in the EU election.
https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/peterborough-european-election-results-brexit-16336221
Brexit Party: 16196
Labour: 7272
Liberal Democrats: 6491
Conservatives: 4594
Green: 4563
UKIP: 1537
Change UK: 1277
English Democrats: 284
Independent Attila Csordas: 650 -
> @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > it is an insult to democracy
> >
> > Asking people to vote cannot by definition be an insult to democracy.
>
> Hey comrade. Listen again as clearly you don't understand this democracy thing. Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
>
> Well not unless you are living in North Korea.
They weren't ignored. A deal was negotiated but voted down by ERG.0 -
Ruth demanded Scotland send the SNP a message.Scott_P said:Hang on, just setting my watch...
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1133034259105570818
The message was "Good job, keep on doing what you are doing"0 -
Only once voted Tory in my life, for Goldsmith as MayorChris said:> @isam said:
> > @isam said:
>
> > I > @isam
> > > Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
>
> > > If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again
> > > That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy
> > > You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason
> > > We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.
>
> > > That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.
>
> > Complain to Jacob Rees-Mogg, not to us.
>
> >
>
> > If only the ERG had voted against the deal, it would have passed by a huge margin
> Oh well - cc in whatever other Tories you think are an affront or whatever.
> The whole thing was just a Tory wheeze to try to boost their public support by a few points. They've greatly damaged the country and probably destroyed themselves into the bargain. I suggest you complain to the people who are to blame for this nightmare.
>
> I’ll just vote for BXP like the other millions
Please do. Nothing could please me more than half the Tory party carrying on voting for the Brexit Party for the rest of their lives!0 -
Nobody has ignored their vote.Richard_Tyndall said:Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
We have spent 3 years of blood an treasure. Institutions have been attacked. Careers have been destroyed. The entire fabric of society is under strain.
Voting is a continued expression of belief in democracy. I don't really think you favour the alternatives...0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
>
> And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
>
> Democracy is not insulted.
The MPs have already taken their seats. Democracy has been satisfied. The equivalent here is leaving the EU and then having another vote. Doing it again without having left is not democracy no matter how much you hypocrites might like to pretend it is.
And in case you missed it your losers vote choice got about 1/6th of the electorate to vote for it on Thursday.0 -
Scott_P said:
And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.Richard_Tyndall said:We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
Democracy is not insulted.
Appalling analogy.
A deal was done, and Remainer MPs who won their seats on a pledge of implementing the result, voted it down.0 -
-
> @Scott_P said:
> Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
>
> Nobody has ignored their vote.
>
> We have spent 3 years of blood an treasure. Institutions have been attacked. Careers have been destroyed. The entire fabric of society is under strain.
>
> Voting is a continued expression of belief in democracy. I don't really think you favour the alternatives...
The alternatives are exactly what you will get if you ignore the first vote.0 -
> @JackW said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Missing In Action :
> >
> >
> >
> > Unless I have missed the announcements I have not seen any comment by either Great Uncle Vince Cable or The Great She-Bot of Downing Street.
> >
> >
> >
> > Perhaps the Yellow Resurgent One is overseeing an orgy of incoming nationwide bar charts and therefore partly understandable, if a horrifying prospect.
> >
> >
> >
> > However what is excuse for our Prime Minister (in name only) ?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1132973543157841920
>
> ...............................................................................
>
> Shabby .... some Downing Street flunky issues a tweet. At least Jezza fronted up and talked bollocks to the camera !!
Is it? She's on her way out after all.0 -
Nobody ignored itRichard_Tyndall said:The alternatives are exactly what you will get if you ignore the first vote.
0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
>
> Nobody has ignored their vote.
>
> We have spent 3 years of blood an treasure. Institutions have been attacked. Careers have been destroyed. The entire fabric of society is under strain.
>
> Voting is a continued expression of belief in democracy. I don't really think you favour the alternatives...
The idea that voting is anti-democratic is truly Orwellian.
As someone said, a democracy that cannot change its mind ceases to be a democracy.0 -
-
> @logical_song said:
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > it is an insult to democracy
> > >
> > > Asking people to vote cannot by definition be an insult to democracy.
> >
> > Hey comrade. Listen again as clearly you don't understand this democracy thing. Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
> >
> > Well not unless you are living in North Korea.
>
> They weren't ignored. A deal was negotiated but voted down by ERG.
If only the ERG had voted against it it would have passed easily. It is those who want to cancel Brexit entirely who are set on this course. People who only like democracy when they are winning.0 -
So far as I can tell, the Tories only scraped into second place in one counting area (South Ayrshire with 21%). Were there any others?Black_Rook said:> @isam said:
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
>
>
> They never learn...
>
> Someone sent me this... is it accurate?
They've forgotten to fill in the Western Isles, but other than that, yes. It's an accurate depiction of the party collecting the greatest number of votes in each of the counting areas in Great Britain.
The Conservative rosette is missing as they didn't come top in any of them. For comparison, Plaid Cymru and the Greens managed three apiece.0
This discussion has been closed.