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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London
East of England, vote share:
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First!0
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In summary: NUMBERWANG0
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So yet another polling enquiry!0
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Curtice is on.
'The country is polarised.'
No shit, Sherlock...0 -
What does that even mean? Working class voters in the North and Wales will vote for whoever they want to.Scott_P said:0 -
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The Paul Bernal tweet is certainly going to be right.0
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> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1132768964772290567?s=20
Does he still have his job?0 -
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> @Alistair said:
> SNP are utterly smashing this.
But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM.0 -
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> @StuartDickson said:
> > @Alistair said:
> > SNP are utterly smashing this.
>
> But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM.
SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland0 -
Peterborough (East of England) result: Brex: 38.3% (+38.3) Lab: 17.2% (-7.9) LDem: 15.4% (+10.9) Con: 10.9% (-14.7) Grn: 10.8% (+5.1) UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)0
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One for Emily Thornberry to chew on..
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1132768044852416512?s=210 -
> @another_richard said:
> The Paul Bernal tweet is certainly going to be right.
One thing is for certain. The Brexit vote is much more efficiently distributed than its rivals.0 -
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> @Pulpstar said:
> Peterborough (East of England) result: Brex: 38.3% (+38.3) Lab: 17.2% (-7.9) LDem: 15.4% (+10.9) Con: 10.9% (-14.7) Grn: 10.8% (+5.1) UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)
Brexit Party to gain Peterborough in the by election in a fortnight looks very likely on those results0 -
Curtice suggesting in summary this is more difficult for Labour given the Remainers have more outlets to turn to and Farage is rubbish at Westminster elections.0
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Just switched off the TV.
Alastair Campbell came on.0 -
Tories third in Windsor and Maidenhead behind the Brexit Party and LDs0
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Yes, and unfortunately 'doing a deal' is now seen as sitting on the fence.Wulfrun_Phil said:> @TOPPING said:
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Last week, me:
>
> "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
The message from this election is that sitting on the fence on Brexit is electoral suicide.
Yep. Sucks to be them I guess, but you cannot straddle this line forever - they've tried, and it looked like it was working for a long time, but it didn't in the end.Scott_P said:
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> @Casino_Royale said:
> Just switched off the TV.
>
> Alastair Campbell came on.
And a LD - very balanced panel.0 -
As for 2019? Well, it seems from recent opinion polling that it’s nailed-on that Farage’s new Brexit Party will enable him to follow on from his victory leading his former party UKIP in 2014. It may well see the LibDems achieve their first ever runner’s up spot, as the electorate become ever more polarised. But it will be interesting to see how the big two (Labour and the Tories) will fare in Thursday’s battle, and all that augurs for future elections, and the future of their respective leaders
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
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Alistair Campbell says he voted LD on BBC0
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There is increasingly no doubt that TBP are going to exceed UKIP's performance, probably by around 5%. Given that UKIP are still picking up 3-4% that is a very strong performance.
The Lib Dems are doing very well and their achievement is even more remarkable when you factor in how well the Greens are doing. Had the remain vote not been fragmented this would have been seriously close.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @Alistair said:
> > > SNP are utterly smashing this.
> >
> > But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM.
>
> SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
The big news is the total wipe out of Scottish Labour... Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, they are being totally taken off the map.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1132768964772290567?s=20<;
+++++
George Eaton? UGH0 -
Alistair Campbell openly admits voting Liberal Democrat.
That's disturbing because I am now in the uncomfortable position of having voted for the same party as him...0 -
Wales up now.0
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> @Gallowgate said:
> https://twitter.com/BBCPropaganda/status/1132770382199623680
>
>
>
> What does that even mean? Working class voters in the North and Wales will vote for whoever they want to.
And who will that be? Bearing in mind that elections are more table d hote then a la carte.0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/1132772292646318082
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/GLove39/status/1132772517750476810
So, first Gordon was going to save the Union. Then Ruth. Wonder how wee Wullie will get on.0 -
> @TGOHF said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Just switched off the TV.
> >
> > Alastair Campbell came on.
>
> And a LD - very balanced panel.
Admitting he didn't vote Labour again. I assume the inquisition will be after him.0 -
> @Casino_Royale said:
> Just switched off the TV.
>
> Alastair Campbell came on.
He's representative of the people of Woking.0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Just switched off the TV.
> >
> > Alastair Campbell came on.
>
> He's representative of the people of Woking.
No, he's the representative of the Ego of Campbell - nothing more, nothing less.0 -
Being serious for a moment, it is such a bad night for the Tories it will disguise, or at least distract somewhat, from it being not a good night for Labour - how will that play out in the coming days? The Tories are going to be competing to see who can get on their knees to Farage the fastest, without looking too shameless about it, but Labour need to have it out as well, confront the truth that they are either for remain, completely, or they are for Leave. There are not as many of their MPs who are split on that topic, but it will still not be easy - who makes the first move?0
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FFS, can't they find someone who actually speaks Welsh to do the reading out? This is just painful.0
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> @TGOHF said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Just switched off the TV.
> >
> > Alastair Campbell came on.
>
> And a LD - very balanced panel.
Eh?!?0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Just switched off the TV.
> >
> > Alastair Campbell came on.
>
> He's representative of the people of Woking.
Not me, he isn't.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
>
> SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.0 -
She'll probably explode when they get their second! Are they able to get any more than that? I think SW is a bust, but anywhere in the midlands?HYUFD said:0 -
Labour third in Wales.
Tories fifth by a whisker.
Dismal performance.
And if CHUK had been allied to the Yellows, Labour would have come fourth.0 -
Wal: brx 2 pc 1 lab 10
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Who is the Tory on BBC coverage (which is practically unwatchable, have switched to Sky)0
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> @Cicero said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > > @Alistair said:
> > > > SNP are utterly smashing this.
> > >
> > > But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM.
> >
> > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> The big news is the total wipe out of Scottish Labour... Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, they are being totally taken off the map.
>
I never thought I’d live long enough. Praise the Lord.0 -
Wales results
Brexit Party first with 271404
Plaid second with 163928
Labour third with 127833
LDs 4th with 113888
Tories 5th with 54597
Greens 6th with 526600 -
LDs almost got three extra votes in Wales.0
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> @williamglenn said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
Wasn't it you who predicted a million LibDem votes in London ?0 -
> @kle4 said:
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1132772771430313985
>
>
>
> She'll probably explode when they get their second! Are they able to get any more than that? I think SW is a bust, but anywhere in the midlands?
SE I think.0 -
Dan Hannah on Sky “ Labour is led by someone who regrets the result of the Cold War “0
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Tough on the Lib Dems in Wales. 113K and no MEP.0
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Wales:
Change UK: 24,332
Conservatives: 54,587
Greens: 52,660
Labour: 127,833
Lib Dems: 113.885
Plaid Cymru: 163,928
Brexit Party: 271,404
Ukip: 27,566
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit Party
2. Plaid Cymru
3. Brexit Party
4. Labour
**ENDS**0 -
Welsh MEPs elected
2 Brexit Party
1 Plaid
1 Labour0 -
If anybody has £92, they can back Brexit on 1.01 on Betfair Exchange and win 92p.
Never say I don't give you nuthin...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1576400260 -
Tories beaten by Greens in West Midlands.0
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Labour have a massive insurmountable problem to solve. Remain in the Cities, Leave in the heartlands.0
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It bloody doesn't. It picks a policy and then campaigns for it, persuading people to their side. Whatever happened to principles?CarlottaVance said:0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
Shhhh.... Unionist complacency = good. Unionist enlightenment = bad.0 -
> @another_richard said:
>
> Wasn't it you who predicted a million LibDem votes in London ?
I got the direction right. 0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132762527790764034
Importantly the LDs have more than TBP+C put together0 -
Tories behind Greens and Labour in West Midlands, but Brexit cleaning up.
Again, Labour saved by CHUK splitting the vote.
Somehow the Tories hang on to one seat.0 -
West Midlands results
Brexit Party 507152
Labour 228398
LDs 219982
Greens 143520
Cons 1352790 -
Another example of LDs, on a very good night, just missing out on it being truly amazing. And Labour getting some MEPs to flatter their own result. It's actually quite lucky.ydoethur said:
And if CHUK had been allied to the Yellows, Labour would have come fourth.0 -
> @another_richard said:
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
> >
> > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
>
> Wasn't it you who predicted a million LibDem votes in London ?
What's 400,000 votes between friends?
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This nation is utterly divided.0
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West Midlands:
Change UK: 45,673
Conservatives: 135,279
Greens: 143,520
Labour: 228,298
Lib Dems: 219,982
Brexit: 507,152
Ukip: 66,934
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit
2. Brexit
3. Labour
4. Lib Dems
5. Brexit
6. Greens
7. Conservatives
**ENDS**0 -
West Midlands MEPs elected
3 Brexit Party
1 Labour
1 LD
1 Green
1 Conservative0 -
The Tories got a seat in the West Midlands!0
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> @williamglenn said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Just switched off the TV.
> >
> > Alastair Campbell came on.
>
> He's representative of the people of Woking.
You have a very low opinion of the people of Woking.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> Is this right?
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132775073687982080
That's what the BBC showed.0 -
That one I figured, sorry. I meant they'd explode when getting that one. But is there a third available? Labour are lucking out on a few seats already, the Tories need to squak a few.TheWhiteRabbit said:> @kle4 said:
>
>
>
>
> She'll probably explode when they get their second! Are they able to get any more than that? I think SW is a bust, but anywhere in the midlands?
SE I think.0 -
Cons double their seats in W. Mids. Con and Labour lose one.0
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Pandas 2 v 2 Cons
Tight run0 -
> @Jonathan said:
> This nation is utterly divided.
In multiple ways.
And luckily we have a recession due.0 -
> There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
> It’s over.
>Yup, as I mentioned a few months ago the hardcore Brexit vote never seems to top out at beyond what was the core tory vote - about 33 % at the most, and late 20s on a bad day. It's not enough.
>Curtice just said the same on the Beeb. He’s obviously reading PBC tonight.
Good to see we're getting our credit ;.)0 -
I'm worried about your heart seeting these results, don't get too excited!StuartDickson said:> @Cicero said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > > @Alistair said:
> > > > SNP are utterly smashing this.
> > >
> > > But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM.
> >
> > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> The big news is the total wipe out of Scottish Labour... Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, they are being totally taken off the map.
>
I never thought I’d live long enough. Praise the Lord.0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/BBCPropaganda/status/1132770382199623680
It shows just how London centric our politics is.0 -
Looks like Lab and Con have done, pretty much, equally badly.0
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> @ralphmalph said:
> Labour have a massive insurmountable problem to solve. Remain in the Cities, Leave in the heartlands.
The tories have a massive insurmountable problem.0 -
> @Casino_Royale said:
> Just switched off the TV.
>
> Alastair Campbell came on.
How he is allowed to show his face regularly on the BBC...but Danny Baker will never be allowed on again....one sent an offensive tweet (but nobody genuinely thinks is a racist), the other...its a family website.0 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
> https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
That's probably because London is in that.0
This discussion has been closed.