> @rcs1000 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21 > > > > > > That's probably because London is in that. > > > > TBP should poll above 30% in each region to be declared now, other than Scotland. > > Yes: they should come out at about 34%. (And the LDs should hold on to the 20% mark.)
Brexit Party vote share was up 8.2% on 2014 UKIP share in Wales and 11.2% up on 2014 UKIP share in West Midlands.
On a UK share (as used for betting) I think they'll reach around 33% and around 34% on a GB share (as used for opinion polling).
> @malcolmg said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland > > > > > > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project. > > > > Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote > > Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
> @Cyclefree said: > Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit. > > Since when is a third a majority?
It is also worth noting that of the BXP voters on here, a substantial minority are opposed to No Deal. (Not to the level of revocation.)
Most BXP voters, IMHO, just want the government to get on with it.
> @IanB2 said: > Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit. > > Since when is a third a majority? > > Welcome to our crooked voting system
> @Cyclefree said: > Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit. > > Since when is a third a majority?
It's a disappointment for them if that's where they end up. The Brexit-supporting media, and they themselves, had set up the expectation of more. It's the old core Tory vote again.
> > > > > > Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote > > > > Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick. > > SNP got 37% in 2017 and currently also on 37%<
++++
Yep. In the current circs it's not an amazing result for the SNP. Worthy of one cheer, not three. They'd be mad to rush to Sindyref2 on this basis.
> @kle4 said: > South West votes > > > > Brexit Party 611742 > > LDs 385095 > > Greens 302364 > > Tories 144674 > > Labour 108100 > > I expected the Greens to keep their seat in the SW, but that is a very impressive score.
Wow indeed. They'll only feel a bit of disappointment that they haven't got more seats with all these kinds of impressive scores, but it's still a very good night for them.
They already had one there - strong in Bristol, and not bad elsewhere in the region, compared to many other places. But its gone Green in a big way it seems, considering the LD advance.
Earlier today I wrote that I thought the SW was very important to the LD revival. Well the results are in and they have increased their vote by 12%. I think they will be ok with this but not ecstatic.
Does not forecast an LD revival in my view but may well lead to ore council seats in the future.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @kle4 said: > > South West votes > > > > > > > > Brexit Party 611742 > > > > LDs 385095 > > > > Greens 302364 > > > > Tories 144674 > > > > Labour 108100 > > > > I expected the Greens to keep their seat in the SW, but that is a very impressive score. > > Wow indeed. They'll only feel a bit of disappointment that they haven't got more seats with all these kinds of impressive scores, but it's still a very good night for them.
> @Artist said: > How did the Greens do so well in the SW
Rumours earlier in the night of Labour coming fourth in Bristol presumably true. They and the Lib Dems between them have evidently completely dismembered the Labour vote, save for the surviving core of diehard Corbynites and robot voters.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit. > > > > Since when is a third a majority? > > It is also worth noting that of the BXP voters on here, a substantial minority are opposed to No Deal. (Not to the level of revocation.) > > Most BXP voters, IMHO, just want the government to get on with it.
The really interesting news of the election is that Emily Thornberry has had enough of Corbyn and it's pretty clear she'll move against him. She wants Labour to be unequivocal for Remain. No ifs or buts....
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > The South West really wants its Brexit. > > > > Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party! > > Add UKIP plus Tories.
You can’t add Tories. They form the woolly middle alliance with Labour. Remain won.
> @oldpolitics said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.
And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit?
Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results.
> @kle4 said: > > @Cicero said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @StuartDickson said: > > > > > > @Alistair said: > > > > > > SNP are utterly smashing this. > > > > > > > > > > But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM. > > > > > > > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland > > > > > > The big news is the total wipe out of Scottish Labour... Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, they are being totally taken off the map. > > > > > > > I never thought I’d live long enough. Praise the Lord. > > I'm worried about your heart seeting these results, don't get too excited!
Nah. No worries. It’s just a daft Euro vote. Means the square root of diddly squat. But it is a straw in the wind. Or in the case of Ruth Davidson and Richard Leonard, a cow-pat on the head.
> @SouthamObserver said: > Revoke and Remain beating No Deal in the SW. Your assuming that all the con vote is not no deal that’s a big assumption when most con members are for no deal
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > Labour won Barking and Dagenham, I suspect most Labour voters there were Leave
True but most of those voters probably went to other parties tonight.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @oldpolitics said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > > > Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour. > > And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit? > > Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results.
What you can determine is that very little figures beyond the Tories' old core vote, though, want no-deal, as hoped for and publicly offered by the Brexit party. And yet the Tories may be about to throw themselves into a no-deal candidacy and trajectory.
The really interesting news of the election is that Emily Thornberry has had enough of Corbyn and it's pretty clear she'll move against him. She wants Labour to be unequivocal for Remain. No ifs or buts....
With Corbyn in place Brexit wont be stopped
Yes. I would expect moves to be made against Corbyn this week... at least if any sensible [1] Labour MPs have anything to do with it.
One thing most of us can wholeheartedly celebrate is the defeat of "Tommy Robinson " and the rump of UKIP. Good riddance. Won't be embarrassing the country in Strasbourg.
Comments
Brexit 31.7%
LD 20.3%
Lab 13.9%
Green 12.1%
Con 9.2%
CUK 3.5%
UKIP 3.4%
Vale of White Horse: Lib Dems 17273, Brexit Party 11976
South Oxfordshire: Lib Dems 15233, Brexit Party 13197
I think Layla will sleep easy tonight.
North Ayrshire (Scotland) result:
SNP: 41.6% (+9.2)
Brex: 17.5% (+17.5)
Con: 12.5% (-4.5)
Lab: 10.1% (-18.7)
LDem: 7.9% (+5.3)
Grn: 5.6% (+0.3)
UKIP: 2.2% (-9.0)
ChUK: 2.0% (+2.0)
Since when is a third a majority?
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
> > >
> > > That's probably because London is in that.
> >
> > TBP should poll above 30% in each region to be declared now, other than Scotland.
>
> Yes: they should come out at about 34%. (And the LDs should hold on to the 20% mark.)
Brexit Party vote share was up 8.2% on 2014 UKIP share in Wales and 11.2% up on 2014 UKIP share in West Midlands.
On a UK share (as used for betting) I think they'll reach around 33% and around 34% on a GB share (as used for opinion polling).
Looks like a very good night for YouGov.
> Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
Labour are Remain?
*innocent face*
"All the roubles flowing in to your party"
If I were Farage, I'd send that to my libel lawyers.
Campbell has lost it. His wife should take him home.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
>
> No, Brexit Party now level with LDs and Greens combined on 32% each.
>
>
But you need to add ChUK, PC and SNP to the revoke and remain number.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > >
>
> > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
>
>
>
> Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
>
> Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
SNP got 37% in 2017 and currently also on 37%
> Lol Alistair Campbell claiming TBP have lost in Wales.
"you got 42%!"
sounds like a win to me
> Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
>
> Since when is a third a majority?
It is also worth noting that of the BXP voters on here, a substantial minority are opposed to No Deal. (Not to the level of revocation.)
Most BXP voters, IMHO, just want the government to get on with it.
> Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
>
> Since when is a third a majority?
>
> Welcome to our crooked voting system
Wasn't it the EU's idea?
CHUK 46,612
Con 144,674 (8.7%)
EngDem 8,393
Green 302,364 (18.1%)
Lab 108,100 (6.5%)
LD 385,095 (23.1%)
BRX 611,742 (36.7%)
UKIP 53,739
Maxey Ind 1,772
Rahman Ind 755
Ind Seed 3,383
Brexit Party 611742
LDs 385095
Greens 302364
Tories 144674
Labour 108100
> Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
>
> Since when is a third a majority?
It's a disappointment for them if that's where they end up. The Brexit-supporting media, and they themselves, had set up the expectation of more. It's the old core Tory vote again.
A couple more at least for Labour? So around 8-9? Only ok next to that Tory score.
Widders is an MEP.
> https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1132780036992446465
Where better to sabotage them than from within?
Change UK: 46,612
Conservatives: 144,674
English Democrats: 8.393
Greens: 302,364
Labour: 108,100
Lib Dems: 385,095
Brexit: 611,742
Ukip: 53,739
(Ind candidates: 1,772, 755 and 3,383)
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit
2. Lib Dems
3. Brexit
4. Greens
5. Brexit
6. Lib Dems
Greens doing very well, only party other than the big two to get a seat. Labour and Tories both wiped out.
**ENDS**
> >
> >
> > Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
> >
> > Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
>
> SNP got 37% in 2017 and currently also on 37%<
++++
Yep. In the current circs it's not an amazing result for the SNP. Worthy of one cheer, not three. They'd be mad to rush to Sindyref2 on this basis.
Prediction: they won't.
> The South West really wants its Brexit.
Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!
3 Brexit MEPs
2 LDs
1 Green
Ann Widdecombe elected
> How did the Greens do so well in the SW
Bristol ?
...
Anne Widdecombe is still ghastly, isn't she?
> South West votes
>
>
>
> Brexit Party 611742
>
> LDs 385095
>
> Greens 302364
>
> Tories 144674
>
> Labour 108100
>
> I expected the Greens to keep their seat in the SW, but that is a very impressive score.
Wow indeed. They'll only feel a bit of disappointment that they haven't got more seats with all these kinds of impressive scores, but it's still a very good night for them.
Brexit Party 452321
LDs 203989
Lab 164682
Tories 123328
> The South West really wants its Brexit.
Not sure how you work that out.
Does not forecast an LD revival in my view but may well lead to ore council seats in the future.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > The South West really wants its Brexit.
>
> Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!
Add UKIP plus Tories.
> > @kle4 said:
> > South West votes
> >
> >
> >
> > Brexit Party 611742
> >
> > LDs 385095
> >
> > Greens 302364
> >
> > Tories 144674
> >
> > Labour 108100
> >
> > I expected the Greens to keep their seat in the SW, but that is a very impressive score.
>
> Wow indeed. They'll only feel a bit of disappointment that they haven't got more seats with all these kinds of impressive scores, but it's still a very good night for them.
5k more votes and that would have been Greens 2
> Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.
3 Brexit Party
1 LD
1 Labour
Annunziata Rees Mogg is elected
> The South West really wants its Brexit.
Er no... LD + Green > TBP +UKIP
3 Brexit
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
Jonathan Bullock
Matthew Patten
1 LD
William Newton Dunn
1 Lab
Rory Palmer
> How did the Greens do so well in the SW
Rumours earlier in the night of Labour coming fourth in Bristol presumably true. They and the Lib Dems between them have evidently completely dismembered the Labour vote, save for the surviving core of diehard Corbynites and robot voters.
> Looking at UKIP, BXP and Tories the leave vote in the SW is well down on 2014.
Probably the differential turnout that was noted over the last few days. I wonder how it would translate into a second people's vote?
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
> >
> > Since when is a third a majority?
>
> It is also worth noting that of the BXP voters on here, a substantial minority are opposed to No Deal. (Not to the level of revocation.)
>
> Most BXP voters, IMHO, just want the government to get on with it.
Yes, I think so.
With Corbyn in place Brexit wont be stopped
> Revoke and Remain beating No Deal in the SW.
No Deal beating Revoke and Remain in the East Midlands
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > The South West really wants its Brexit.
> >
> > Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!
>
> Add UKIP plus Tories.
You can’t add Tories. They form the woolly middle alliance with Labour. Remain won.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1132780578397466624
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
>
> Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.
And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit?
Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results.
It just lists MEPs. No figures for each region.
> Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
Labour won Barking and Dagenham, I suspect most Labour voters there were Leave
> > @Cicero said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @StuartDickson said:
>
> > > > > @Alistair said:
>
> > > > > SNP are utterly smashing this.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM.
>
> > >
>
> > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> >
>
> > The big news is the total wipe out of Scottish Labour... Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, they are being totally taken off the map.
>
> >
>
>
>
> I never thought I’d live long enough. Praise the Lord.
>
> I'm worried about your heart seeting these results, don't get too excited!
Nah. No worries. It’s just a daft Euro vote. Means the square root of diddly squat. But it is a straw in the wind. Or in the case of Ruth Davidson and Richard Leonard, a cow-pat on the head.
> Oh god. Mark Francois.
Where as on Sky they have Tobias Ellwood....who reminds me not all Tories are total moronic nutters.
> Revoke and Remain beating No Deal in the SW.
Your assuming that all the con vote is not no deal that’s a big assumption when most con members are for no deal
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132779036764254208?s=20
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132779435562811393?s=20
> Remain > Leave in South West
Umm no. Tories are Leave, Labour is Leave officially but should really be put in neither column.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
>
> Labour won Barking and Dagenham, I suspect most Labour voters there were Leave
True but most of those voters probably went to other parties tonight.
> Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
You cant include Labour, be real.
> Can we have a relaxation of the rules around the C word so I can describe Mark Francois appropriately?
Time for the big vote of the night: who's worse, Alastair Campbell or Mark Francois?
I vote Campbell.
> Can we have a relaxation of the rules around the C word so I can describe Mark Francois appropriately?
I prefer using the T word, Tory.
oh...
> https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1132782100904652800
No difficulty there. The Tories need to represent one or the other. Either exit properly or don't bother.
> > @oldpolitics said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
> >
> > Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.
>
> And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit?
>
> Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results.
What you can determine is that very little figures beyond the Tories' old core vote, though, want no-deal, as hoped for and publicly offered by the Brexit party. And yet the Tories may be about to throw themselves into a no-deal candidacy and trajectory.
[1] Oh, wait....
"Son, if you set it to a tune, we will all sing it"...