As bad as things are right now, if you throw in a trade war between the US and China, and potentially a war war between the US and Iran, things can get a hell of a lot worse.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Peterborough (East of England) result: Brex: 38.3% (+38.3) Lab: 17.2% (-7.9) LDem: 15.4% (+10.9) Con: 10.9% (-14.7) Grn: 10.8% (+5.1) UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9) > > Brexit Party to gain Peterborough in the by election in a fortnight looks very likely on those results
Indeed it does. 2 caveats though. Peterborough constituency is only c60% of Peterborough UA. It is a good deal more Labour, being the Town centre. Labour, crucially, hung on to 2nd, just. Therefore, 2 horse race bar chart should be out. Nevertheless Brexit should be big favourites now.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland > > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
Campbell talking bollocks about assuming that the Labour vote is in the Remain column. It really isn't - and he has no evidence to support that - just wishful thinking.
Plus he is about to be expelled from Labour (assuming he is still a member)
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland > > > > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project. > > Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
That's a creative interpretation of the numbers and you know it.
> @oxfordsimon said: > Campbell talking bollocks about assuming that the Labour vote is in the Remain column. It really isn't - and he has no evidence to support that - just wishful thinking. > > Plus he is about to be expelled from Labour (assuming he is still a member)
Tobias Ellwood speaking far more sense, saying it is more like 1/3, 1/3, 1/3...Out come what may, In come with may, deal.
> @AndyJS said: > Is there a page showing the latest voting figures overall? I can't find one. I know the BBC shows them along the bottom intermittently.
> @oxfordsimon said: > Campbell talking bollocks about assuming that the Labour vote is in the Remain column. It really isn't - and he has no evidence to support that - just wishful thinking. > > Plus he is about to be expelled from Labour (assuming he is still a member)
If he's saying Labour are a Remain party then why didn't he vote for them ?
> > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
> @malcolmg said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland > > > > > > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project. > > > > Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote > > Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @kle4 said: > > I assume the SNP will get at least 3 seats in Scotland (is 4 possible?), but who would be the one losing out? > > 3 SNP 1 Brex 1 LD 1 Con - bye bye SLAB
> @RobinWiggs said: > Most net seat changes in each region seem to see 1 conservative seat lost to a Remain party. > > That’s the underlying message of the night for me. All the focus on Brexit Party basically holding UKIP seats is obscuring this. > > Could be differential turnout. Could be Tory remains fracturing. Could be a real change in overall Leave/Remain proportions.
The Conservatives were not a pro-Leave party in 2014, so they've lost some Remain voters to the Lib Dems and CHUK up. I expect the overall vote share for pro-Leave parties will be about 47% tonight.
I think we need to focus on the singular, personal achievement - love it or loathe it, and I tend to the negative - of Farage.
He literally STARTED this party a few weeks ago. From the chaos of UKIP. He honed its approach ("don't talk about migration!"), he disciplined its selection of candidates, he managed the singular message superbly.
It is an astonishing accomplishment. I cannot think of another politician, in the UK, with the skills to do it. Chapeau. He is a twerp, but he is Very Effective.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > I assume the SNP will get at least 3 seats in Scotland (is 4 possible?), but who would be the one losing out? > > > > 3 SNP 1 Brex 1 LD 1 Con - bye bye SLAB > > No Scottish Green MEP?
Not SLab levels of despair, but the Greens(Sc) are going to be pretty disappointed I think.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > I assume the SNP will get at least 3 seats in Scotland (is 4 possible?), but who would be the one losing out? > > > > 3 SNP 1 Brex 1 LD 1 Con - bye bye SLAB > > No Scottish Green MEP?
I don't think so. Scottish results so far suggest the pro-Indy/pro-Remain vote is holding solidly with the SNP, e.g.
Comments
> https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
And the Brexit Party share slithering down towards 30%.
> Peterborough by-election alert:
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132772393775185920
As an aside, that's a fascinatingly close result:
Con + UKIP + Brx
is almost exactly equal to
LD + GRN + ChUK
> https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
Isn't that like 37% v 33%?
Not confortable!
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Peterborough (East of England) result: Brex: 38.3% (+38.3) Lab: 17.2% (-7.9) LDem: 15.4% (+10.9) Con: 10.9% (-14.7) Grn: 10.8% (+5.1) UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)
>
> Brexit Party to gain Peterborough in the by election in a fortnight looks very likely on those results
Indeed it does. 2 caveats though.
Peterborough constituency is only c60% of Peterborough UA. It is a good deal more Labour, being the Town centre.
Labour, crucially, hung on to 2nd, just. Therefore, 2 horse race bar chart should be out.
Nevertheless Brexit should be big favourites now.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
>
> And the Brexit Party share slithering down towards 30%.
Now up to 31.5%
3 Brexit (Rupert Lowe, Martin Daubney, Andrew Kerr)
1 Lab (Neena Gill)
1 LD (Phil Bennion)
1 Green (Ellie Chowns)
1 Con (Anthea McIntyre)
Sion Simon unseated
> Greens surely to have more MEPs than Con?
Probably, yes.
> https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1132774107542708225
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1132774109375545344
Wisest thing said tonight.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
>
> Isn't that like 37% v 33%?
>
> Not confortable!
Are you including Plaid and the SNP?
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
>
> That's probably because London is in that.
It says after 164 of 373 counts. It's hardly going to be dominated by London!
> Looks like Lab and Con have done, pretty much, equally badly.
The Tories are doing substantially worse, though in the long run both parties desperately need to take a clear position on Brexit.
Severe damage is unavoidable, but if they just sit in the middle dithering then they'll be completely torn apart.
> West Midlands
>
> 3 Brexit (Rupert Lowe, Martin Daubney, Andrew Kerr)
> 1 Lab (Neena Gill)
> 1 LD (Phil Bennion)
> 1 Green (Ellie Chowns)
> 1 Con (Anthea McIntyre)
>
> Sion Simon unseated
Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear.
This....
Plus he is about to be expelled from Labour (assuming he is still a member)
> > @RobD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
> >
> > That's probably because London is in that.
>
> It says after 164 of 373 counts. It's hardly going to be dominated by London!
And yet London is fully declared.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
> >
> > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
>
> Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
That's a creative interpretation of the numbers and you know it.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
>
> That's probably because London is in that.
TBP should poll above 30% in each region to be declared now, other than Scotland.
> Campbell talking bollocks about assuming that the Labour vote is in the Remain column. It really isn't - and he has no evidence to support that - just wishful thinking.
>
> Plus he is about to be expelled from Labour (assuming he is still a member)
Tobias Ellwood speaking far more sense, saying it is more like 1/3, 1/3, 1/3...Out come what may, In come with may, deal.
> Is there a page showing the latest voting figures overall? I can't find one. I know the BBC shows them along the bottom intermittently.
https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019
Brexit Party 470351
Labour 210516
LDs 200180
Greens 166980
Tories 92863
ChangeUK 30,162
Con 92,863
Eng Dem 11,283
Green 166,980
Lab 210,516
LD 200,180
Brexit 470,351
YP 50,842
UKIP 56,100
> Suzanne Evans absent-mindedly says the leadership of Jeremy Kyle hasn't been good for Labour!
Hahaha !
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132776433321992198
> twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1132767130733207553
Good job they canned Labour Live 2.0.....
Still got fewer than half the votes of the Brexiteers.
> Campbell talking bollocks about assuming that the Labour vote is in the Remain column. It really isn't - and he has no evidence to support that - just wishful thinking.
>
> Plus he is about to be expelled from Labour (assuming he is still a member)
If he's saying Labour are a Remain party then why didn't he vote for them ?
3 Brexit Party
1 Labour
1 LD
1 Green
> https://twitter.com/PaulbernalUK/status/1132731024255934466
> This....
Yep
Change UK: 30,162
Conservatives: 92,863
English Democrats: 11,283
Greens: 166,980
Labour: 210,516
Lib Dems: 200,180
Brexit: 473,351
Yorkshire Party: 50,842
Ukip: 56,100
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit
2. Brexit
3. Labour
4. Lib Dems
5. Greens
6. Brexit
**ENDS**
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Is there a page showing the latest voting figures overall? I can't find one. I know the BBC shows them along the bottom intermittently.
>
> https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019
Thanks.
John Longworth Brexit
Lucy Harris Brexit
Jake Pugh Brexit
Richard Corbett Lab
Shaffaq Mohammed LD
Magid Magid Greens
Brexit Party 32% LD 20% Labour 14% Greens 12% Tories 9%
> You can always count on Leicester
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132776433321992198
The non-white vote will never abandon Labour.
Except for George Galloway.
> I assume the SNP will get at least 3 seats in Scotland (is 4 possible?), but who would be the one losing out?
3 SNP 1 Brex 1 LD 1 Con - bye bye SLAB
That’s the underlying message of the night for me. All the focus on Brexit Party basically holding UKIP seats is obscuring this.
Could be differential turnout. Could be Tory remains fracturing. Could be a real change in overall Leave/Remain proportions.
> Change UK well behind the Yorkshire Party, ha
>
> Why is that funny?
Probably because of the relative ambitions of the two parties.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
> >
> > That's probably because London is in that.
>
> TBP should poll above 30% in each region to be declared now, other than Scotland.
Yes: they should come out at about 34%. (And the LDs should hold on to the 20% mark.)
> Looks like an embarrassment for Survation. Their latest poll was:
>
> Brexit 31%
> Lab 23%
> Con 14%
> LD 12%
> Green 7%
> ChangeUK 4%
> UKIP 3%
Punters, take note.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1132777780717019137
Can CUK beat UKIP (it's a close one)?
These are the big questions.
Or both, of course.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > >
>
> > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
>
>
>
> Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
>
> Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
On Scotland Malc the answer is yes
> > @RobD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
> >
> > That's probably because London is in that.
>
> TBP should poll above 30% in each region to be declared now, other than Scotland.
That seems a bit over-optimistic for Northern Ireland.
> https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/status/1132776227104858113
>
>
>
> It doesn't look as though Corbyn is in for an easy ride.
Awful man, serves him bloody right
> > @kle4 said:
> > I assume the SNP will get at least 3 seats in Scotland (is 4 possible?), but who would be the one losing out?
>
> 3 SNP 1 Brex 1 LD 1 Con - bye bye SLAB
No Scottish Green MEP?
> Red on red
>
> https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1132777780717019137
Technically Red on Yellow.
> https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
No, Brexit Party now level with LDs and Greens combined on 32% each.
Isn't it a good job Aaron would never do that?
> Most net seat changes in each region seem to see 1 conservative seat lost to a Remain party.
>
> That’s the underlying message of the night for me. All the focus on Brexit Party basically holding UKIP seats is obscuring this.
>
> Could be differential turnout. Could be Tory remains fracturing. Could be a real change in overall Leave/Remain proportions.
The Conservatives were not a pro-Leave party in 2014, so they've lost some Remain voters to the Lib Dems and CHUK up. I expect the overall vote share for pro-Leave parties will be about 47% tonight.
He literally STARTED this party a few weeks ago. From the chaos of UKIP. He honed its approach ("don't talk about migration!"), he disciplined its selection of candidates, he managed the singular message superbly.
It is an astonishing accomplishment. I cannot think of another politician, in the UK, with the skills to do it. Chapeau. He is a twerp, but he is Very Effective.
> Well done to the Greens, btw, I had thought they would struggle to get 4th because of the LD surge, but it is looking comfortable.
Been lots of rival tactical voting maps, but one of the bigger independent one recommended getting Green over the line in lots of areas.
Not perfect, but Remain seat conversion is very respectable indeed.
https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1132775657774157824
East Mids, South West, South East, Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West
Declared Yorkshire, NW, West Mids, London, East, North East ?
> https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1132778569178976257
Reprogramming?
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > I assume the SNP will get at least 3 seats in Scotland (is 4 possible?), but who would be the one losing out?
> >
> > 3 SNP 1 Brex 1 LD 1 Con - bye bye SLAB
>
> No Scottish Green MEP?
Not SLab levels of despair, but the Greens(Sc) are going to be pretty disappointed I think.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > I assume the SNP will get at least 3 seats in Scotland (is 4 possible?), but who would be the one losing out?
> >
> > 3 SNP 1 Brex 1 LD 1 Con - bye bye SLAB
>
> No Scottish Green MEP?
I don't think so. Scottish results so far suggest the pro-Indy/pro-Remain vote is holding solidly with the SNP, e.g.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132777099813638144
Dynamics propelling the Green surge in England not the same as in Scotland