> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Remain > Leave in South West > > Umm no. Tories are Leave, Labour is Leave officially but should really be put in neither column.
> @dixiedean said: > One thing most of us can wholeheartedly celebrate is the defeat of "Tommy Robinson " and the rump of UKIP. Good riddance. Won't be embarrassing the country in Strasbourg.
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > Labour won Barking and Dagenham, I suspect most Labour voters there were Leave
But you can’t include labour as a remain party when their manifesto is to honour the 2016 referendum . And the northern votes for labour aren’t necessarily remain votes . You can twist these results to extrapolate whatever your bias is
> @Jonathan said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > The South West really wants its Brexit. > > > > > > Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party! > > > > Add UKIP plus Tories. > > You can’t add Tories. They form the woolly middle alliance with Labour. Remain won.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @oldpolitics said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > > > > > Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour. > > > > And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit? > > > > Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results. > > What you can determine is that very little figures beyond the Tories' old core vote, though, as represented by the Brexit party, want no-deal. And yet the Tories may be about to throw themselves into a no-deal candidacy and trajectory.
Earlier today I wrote that I thought the SW was very important to the LD revival. Well the results are in and they have increased their vote by 12%. I think they will be ok with this but not ecstatic.
Does not forecast an LD revival in my view but may well lead to ore council seats in the future.
It strengthens the case for an LD/Green Alliance - which is already in place at local level in some areas
> Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
You cant include Labour, be real.
People calling Labour Remainers remind me of those Slavophioes who claimed the Russian Empire was over half Russian because the Ukrainians were Russians really.
No difficulty there. The Tories need to represent one or the other. Either exit properly or don't bother.
Pretending they could unify the positions within the party just paralysed them. It is paralysing Labour to a lesser degree.
It may well be that neither can win outright by definitively choosing one extreme or another, but they will not really move forward until they do so and take the hit if that is what it requires.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
I can remember the arguments on election night 2014 whether most votes had gone to eurosceptic parties, or whether they'd gone to parties that were in favour of the EU.
> @dixiedean said: > One thing most of us can wholeheartedly celebrate is the defeat of "Tommy Robinson " and the rump of UKIP. Good riddance. Won't be embarrassing the country in Strasbourg.
> Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
You cant include Labour, be real.
I think we can see the line that will be endlessly repeated by supporters of Revoke and Hard Brexit now, they will adopt all of the Labour votes or all of the Conservative votes in order to declare that they are the winner.
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > > > Labour won Barking and Dagenham, I suspect most Labour voters there were Leave > > True but most of those voters probably went to other parties tonight.
Labour won Barking and Dagenham tonight, one of its few wins in London.
It seems Labour Leavers have stuck with Labour more than Labour Remainers who have defected to the LDs, Greens and Plaid and maybe Tory Remainers more than Tory Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party.
Perhaps tonight Labour is a Leave Party on 15% of the vote and the Tories are a Remain Party on 9% of the vote?
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > The South West really wants its Brexit. > > > > Not sure how you work that out. > > By being objective and looking at the results. > > Unlike others here desperate to have them support their own narrative.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Floater said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > > > You cant include Labour, be real. > > Neither Tories nor Labour can be included in any of this. > > The story of the night is. Brexit+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists. > >
Tories are pro-Brexit so why not include them.
Brexit+Tory+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists with Labour irrelevant.
> @ydoethur said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > > > You cant include Labour, be real. > > People calling Labour Remainers remind me of those Slavophioes who claimed the Russian Empire was over half Russian because the Ukrainians were Russians really.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @Floater said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > > > > > You cant include Labour, be real. > > > > Neither Tories nor Labour can be included in any of this. > > > > The story of the night is. Brexit+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists. > > > > > > Tories are pro-Brexit so why not include them. > > Brexit+Tory+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists with Labour irrelevant.
********************************************************************************************************* If you want to try to assess where public opinion is on these votes, you have to make assumptions about the Remain/Leaver split for both Tory and Labour voters. You can't simply ignore them!
My guess is the Tory split is 2/1 Leave to Remain (a lot of Tory Leavers have moved to the Brexit Party and are counted there) For Labour my guess is 1/2 Leave to Remain. Some Lab Leavers will have gone to Brexit and some Remainers to LD.
Adding everything up gives 54% Remain, 46% Leave.
You have to change my assumptions about Tory and Labour Leave/Remain splits to an unrealistic extent to get a Leave majority out of this! Not to say some people won't try.
Comments
So that's probably Campbell as well.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Remain > Leave in South West
>
> Umm no. Tories are Leave, Labour is Leave officially but should really be put in neither column.
So that's an umm, yes, surely?
> One thing most of us can wholeheartedly celebrate is the defeat of "Tommy Robinson " and the rump of UKIP. Good riddance. Won't be embarrassing the country in Strasbourg.
Have we had a result from the North West?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
>
> Labour won Barking and Dagenham, I suspect most Labour voters there were Leave
But you can’t include labour as a remain party when their manifesto is to honour the 2016 referendum . And the northern votes for labour aren’t necessarily remain votes . You can twist these results to extrapolate whatever your bias is
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > The South West really wants its Brexit.
> > >
> > > Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!
> >
> > Add UKIP plus Tories.
>
> You can’t add Tories. They form the woolly middle alliance with Labour. Remain won.
Nonsense. Tories are a Brexit party.
It's their primary policy.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @oldpolitics said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
> > >
> > > Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.
> >
> > And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit?
> >
> > Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results.
>
> What you can determine is that very little figures beyond the Tories' old core vote, though, as represented by the Brexit party, want no-deal. And yet the Tories may be about to throw themselves into a no-deal candidacy and trajectory.
To go and get back 30% of the voters.....
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
>
> You cant include Labour, be real.
Neither Tories nor Labour can be included in any of this.
The story of the night is. Brexit+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists.
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132775358892257281?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132779036764254208?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132779435562811393?s=20
But Tories are unashamedly pro-Brexit too. So that is 40% for Remain, 44% for Brexit and Labour.on the fence.
Edit great you added a third Tweet which made my point. When I was replying that wasn't there.
It may well be that neither can win outright by definitively choosing one extreme or another, but they will not really move forward until they do so and take the hit if that is what it requires.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > The South West really wants its Brexit.
>
> Not sure how you work that out.
By being objective and looking at the results.
Unlike others here desperate to have them support their own narrative.
I can remember the arguments on election night 2014 whether most votes had gone to eurosceptic parties, or whether they'd gone to parties that were in favour of the EU.
> One thing most of us can wholeheartedly celebrate is the defeat of "Tommy Robinson " and the rump of UKIP. Good riddance. Won't be embarrassing the country in Strasbourg.
Another thing we can thank Nigel Farage for.
It's a bit silly.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132775358892257281?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132779036764254208?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132779435562811393?s=20
>
> But Tories are unashamedly pro-Brexit too. So that is 40% for Remain, 44% for Brexit and Labour.on the fence.
>
> Edit great you added a third Tweet which made my point. When I was replying that wasn't there.
Yep.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
> >
> > Labour won Barking and Dagenham, I suspect most Labour voters there were Leave
>
> True but most of those voters probably went to other parties tonight.
Labour won Barking and Dagenham tonight, one of its few wins in London.
It seems Labour Leavers have stuck with Labour more than Labour Remainers who have defected to the LDs, Greens and Plaid and maybe Tory Remainers more than Tory Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party.
Perhaps tonight Labour is a Leave Party on 15% of the vote and the Tories are a Remain Party on 9% of the vote?
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > The South West really wants its Brexit.
> >
> > Not sure how you work that out.
>
> By being objective and looking at the results.
>
> Unlike others here desperate to have them support their own narrative.
Please show your workings.
But it's still ...Backpfeifengesicht.
Spinning that Brexit plurality on the vote means that the British public are in favour of No Deal exit. Load of rubbish.
> > @Floater said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
> >
> > You cant include Labour, be real.
>
> Neither Tories nor Labour can be included in any of this.
>
> The story of the night is. Brexit+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists.
>
>
Tories are pro-Brexit so why not include them.
Brexit+Tory+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists with Labour irrelevant.
Does this mean that Ref 2 would break 60/40 to leave...
Lega 32-33%
PD 21-22
5 Stars 19
FI 8-9
FdI 5-6
> NEW FRED INNIT
What! Not another one?!
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
>
>
>
> You cant include Labour, be real.
>
> People calling Labour Remainers remind me of those Slavophioes who claimed the Russian Empire was over half Russian because the Ukrainians were Russians really.
Eh?
The Ukrainians did not agree.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
> > >
> > > You cant include Labour, be real.
> >
> > Neither Tories nor Labour can be included in any of this.
> >
> > The story of the night is. Brexit+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists.
> >
> >
>
> Tories are pro-Brexit so why not include them.
>
> Brexit+Tory+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists with Labour irrelevant.
*********************************************************************************************************
If you want to try to assess where public opinion is on these votes, you have to make assumptions about the Remain/Leaver split for both Tory and Labour voters. You can't simply ignore them!
My guess is the Tory split is 2/1 Leave to Remain (a lot of Tory Leavers have moved to the Brexit Party and are counted there)
For Labour my guess is 1/2 Leave to Remain. Some Lab Leavers will have gone to Brexit and some Remainers to LD.
Adding everything up gives 54% Remain, 46% Leave.
You have to change my assumptions about Tory and Labour Leave/Remain splits to an unrealistic extent to get a Leave majority out of this! Not to say some people won't try.