> @MaxPB said: > > @MaxPB said: > > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd. > > > > What about the Greens? > > 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense.
Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
I’m not in the country and the UKs elections are not exactly front and centre of consciousness here but I struggle to believe that. Although Corbyn is, despite his supporters beliefs, an expert in failure.
> @MikeL said: > Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con. > > Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab. > > As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit. > > It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
Indeed, Opinium has a Cons and Brexit Party majority in England BUT Corbyn could still become PM with SNP and Plaid and LD support
Also just to prolong things the result in Scotland will not be announced until Monday since the Western Isles will not count on a Sunday. Because of this no verification is being done tonight in Scotland as far as I know.
> @Dadge said: > The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB.
What Corbyn is worried about is the threat of a non-Corbyn premiership. Whether he loses to Con or BXP isn't the point. A three-way fight between Lab, Con and BXP would be the best scenario he could hope for.
> @MikeL said: > It makes no sense for TMay to go on 10th June. > > New Con leader won't be elected by then - so would mean she stays on for two weeks and then hands over to Lidington for approx six weeks before new leader takes over. > > Surely that can't be right - would be a total mess.
It seems a very odd message.
'I'm today announcing that I'm going to announce my resignation on the 10th'
> @MikeL said: > Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con. > > Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab. > > As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit. > > It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
All any Tory leader needs to do is get through some, any, ANY version of Brexit. It can be WTO------- through to Customs, Single Market, Norway Ireland+++++.
But no version is getting through - could Boris bring the ERG round to a supersoft Brexit ? He might but there is still the DUP and Corbyn doesn't want to give an inch to any Tory proposal either.
> @Foxy said: > > @MaxPB said: > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd. > > I did post my prediction last night about 2300: > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > 33% Turnout > > 31% BXP > 21% LD > 14% Con > 12% Lab > 10% Green > 4% CHUK > 4% UKIP > 4% Other
So essentially a three-way tie between Remain, Hard Brexit and Compromise.
> @Mortimer said: > > @MikeL said: > > It makes no sense for TMay to go on 10th June. > > > > New Con leader won't be elected by then - so would mean she stays on for two weeks and then hands over to Lidington for approx six weeks before new leader takes over. > > > > Surely that can't be right - would be a total mess. > > It seems a very odd message. > > 'I'm today announcing that I'm going to announce my resignation on the 10th' > > Huh?
Yes it is like a couple planning to become engaged.
> @williamglenn said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > Right. The perception was that Davis won (Cameron 'sounded too much like Blair'!) but not by enough. > ------ > > In that debate David Davis said his plan to renegotiate with the EU involved a second referendum.
Not sure Davis would have pulled off the Coalition government or a majority in 2015. The right man won that leadership contest and all was rosey - until 23rd June 2016, that is.
> @dixiedean said: > Grieve will VONC a Tory No Deal. > This point seemed not to compute with Suella. The ERG haven't quite twigged the Tories have no majority.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > What Corbyn is worried about is the threat of a non-Corbyn premiership. Whether he loses to Con or BXP isn't the point. A three-way fight between Lab, Con and BXP would be the best scenario he could hope for.
Except it will be a four-way fight with the Lib Dems...
> @MikeL said: > It makes no sense for TMay to go on 10th June. > > New Con leader won't be elected by then - so would mean she stays on for two weeks and then hands over to Lidington for approx six weeks before new leader takes over. > > Surely that can't be right - would be a total mess.
I guess this is about not standing next to Trump as an officially lame duck.
This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events,
1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs)
2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win.
3) Becomes evident that Boris or another Hard Brexit Leader of Con party will win, a group of remain Con MPs move to LD including people like Healtine (perhaps 80 ish so now 100 LDs)
4) Looks like a GE on cards, with possible massive loss of seats on lab side, Corbin still holds on as Lab leader, 150 ish Lab MPs move to LD now 250 LD MPs supported By SNP etc call Another Referendum, and win.
5) more defections from con and Lab to LD to get a majority or at least close enough to govern with SNP ect. and Con to TBP
6) 2022 GE it becomes LD v TBP with Cons wiped out and a hard core of Corbin supporters backed by Trade unions holding on in 50 or less seats. maybe BXP with and there is a 3rd reff, maybe not.
only speculation but for a lot of people the strongest reason for supporting Lab or Con is hatred or fear of the other party, when/if neater of them are in top 2 that is no longer an issue, the Right left arguments of the last 70 years have been fully played out, but the BREXIT will still be motivating people at least on the loosing side for years to come. IMO
> @Jonathan said: > Might this happen? > > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct. > > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
The FTPA is designed precisely to avoid abuse of the PM's position like that. Parliament would have the option of voting down that election. I think if necessary it would install a caretaker PM to negotiate an extension.
Not unreasonable, IMHO. If the government wants an election and a car crash, it can run on the car crash and win the election.
> @Jonathan said: > Might this happen? > > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct. > > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit. > > The election becomes all about who gets to negotiate the future relationship from a fait-accompli WTO position. > > Farage's gang stands in Remainer held seats and becomes a minor coalition partner to the Tories is a Leave majority parliament running a WTO Britain,
Parliament needs to consent to a GE - and I am not sure that the votes for it exist. Corbyn would have enough reason to refuse to go along (even with his demand for an election) because his party would not vote for a Hard Brexit
Of course, Corbyn could also face a challenge - which might change much
Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
> @MaxPB said: > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > Same here. A Labour friend of mine (party member in London) thinks they will finish third in London and fourth nationally.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare to spend a lot of time on your allotments
> @williamglenn said: > Except it will be a four-way fight with the Lib Dems...
This is of course true. But faced with a headbanger Tory and Farage, I think a lot of Remainers would suck it up and vote Labour again, provided he committed to a referendum.
Brexit Party 31% Labour 23% Cons 14% LDs 12% Greens 7% CUK 4% UKIP 3% SNP 3%
General Election Labour 33% Cons 28% LDs 13% Brexit Party 12%
43% more likely to vote Tory under a Boris leadership, 24% less likely and 57% want May to resign though 54% blame Tory rebels for Brexit failure, only 27% May.
> @Dadge said: > The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB.
But the problem for the Brexit party in a General Election is that they have no actual policies apart from no deal Brexit. Once people realise this their support would probably drop to about 15 % which would result in a couple of MPs. The question is who would get their former voters back Labour or the Tories?
Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Might this happen? > > > > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct. > > > > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit. > > The FTPA is designed precisely to avoid abuse of the PM's position like that. Parliament would have the option of voting down that election. I think if necessary it would install a caretaker PM to negotiate an extension. > > Not unreasonable, IMHO. If the government wants an election and a car crash, it can run on the car crash and win the election.
If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice.
> @Saltire said: > > @Dadge said: > > The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB. > > But the problem for the Brexit party in a General Election is that they have no actual policies apart from no deal Brexit. Once people realise this their support would probably drop to about 15 % which would result in a couple of MPs. The question is who would get their former voters back Labour or the Tories?
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > Max - why do you think labour will do even worse than the tories?
My logic was partly anecdata, but only one of my Labour friends was planning to vote Labour, and that because she was a friend of the candidate. I thought that a lot of Labour voters would stay at home, except those fired up to tactically vote against Brexit.
I also thought the Tories oversold. There are a lot of Loyalists, some who like the deal, and some who are sympathetic to May personally.
> @HYUFD said: > > @MikeL said: > > Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con. > > > > Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab. > > > > As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit. > > > > It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through. > > Indeed, Opinium has a Cons and Brexit Party majority in England BUT Corbyn could still become PM with SNP and Plaid and LD support
Convention is biggest party gets first chance to form a coalition and I see one between Labour and the SNP and/or Lib Dems as a formality. It'll be that 'Progressive Coalition' bollocks Labour were spouting back in 2010 when Gordon Brown was holed-up in No.10 after losing the election, sofa against the door....
> @Nigelb said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > For whom, if anyone, did they vote ? >
> @Mortimer said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Survation still reckon Labour will do much better than Lib Dems. Why are people discounting them? > > Because they don't have an obvious position in an Ulsterised environment. > > Remainers will vote for proper Remain party, Leavers for a proper Leave party. > > Only the most tribal will vote Lab. > > So far only @dixiedean admits to having voted Lab today!
Not a tribal vote, but a tactical one. If I thought LD, Chuk, Green, or even Con were best placed to stop 2 Brexit MEPs, I'd have voted them in a shot. 3 other PBers I know of were planning to as well. They can speak for themselves.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there > > Squeaky bum time for Khan...
I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
> @MaxPB said: > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory. > > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
Half of my lot are scientists and engineers. Pretty good ones too.
> @rottenborough said: > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory. > > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts". > > Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few. > > Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
Big bang theory final season is more disappointing than GoT...
It's actually pretty unlikely. In the South East region there are 10 candidates returned. Now, once we eliminate all the sub 5% votes - such as CHUK, UKIP, etc. - then there's probably 90% of the vote remaining. That means that, realistically, you need about 6.5% of the vote to get a seat.
Given South East England is one of the most Conservative parts of the UK, it would be utterly staggering if they did not get to 6.5% there.
Personally, I think the Cons will make double digits, and get half a dozen seats.
> @nico67 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll: > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 . > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense . > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
> @Pulpstar said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan... > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @Saltire said: > > > @Dadge said: > > > The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB. > > > > But the problem for the Brexit party in a General Election is that they have no actual policies apart from no deal Brexit. Once people realise this their support would probably drop to about 15 % which would result in a couple of MPs. The question is who would get their former voters back Labour or the Tories? > > They would also need 650 candidates....
They would find enough - whether they vet them properly is another matter entirely.
We are in unpredictable times. And I don't like it
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > > > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory. > > > > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts". > > > > Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few. > > > > Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode. > > Big bang theory final season is more disappointing than GoT...
BBT is a poor American sitcom whereas GoT is the greatest fantasy epic to ever grace the small screen with a subpar ending.
> @MaxPB said: > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > Same here. A Labour friend of mine (party member in London) thinks they will finish third in London and fourth nationally.
Behind Brexit, LD, and who else? Tories surely not holding onto many more party members than Labour. Greens?!
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @MaxPB said: > > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > > > Same here. A Labour friend of mine (party member in London) thinks they will finish third in London and fourth nationally. > > Go back to your constituencies and prepare to spend a lot of time on your allotments
Chimes with me - as someone who is formerly devoted to Labour but anti-Corbyn often have had arguments with mates who are on the left but Don't understand the awfulness. No problem this time. Their campaign was an utter disgrace 'vote us or the far right' gave casual left wing voters no positive reason to vote for a party with deep issues. And when the Lib Dems and Greens surged it was a free kick. The Corbynite left struggle with the fact they are the establishment now and have to win support rather than be owed it as a protest against bad stuff.
> @Quincel said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there > > > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan... > > > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day. > > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
Shaun Bailey has the wrong price right now in the race.
> @BigRich said: > This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events, > > 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs) > > 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win. > > 3) Becomes evident that Boris or another Hard Brexit Leader of Con party will win, a group of remain Con MPs move to LD including people like Healtine (perhaps 80 ish so now 100 LDs) > > 4) Looks like a GE on cards, with possible massive loss of seats on lab side, Corbin still holds on as Lab leader, 150 ish Lab MPs move to LD now 250 LD MPs supported By SNP etc call Another Referendum, and win. > > 5) more defections from con and Lab to LD to get a majority or at least close enough to govern with SNP ect. and Con to TBP > > 6) 2022 GE it becomes LD v TBP with Cons wiped out and a hard core of Corbin supporters backed by Trade unions holding on in 50 or less seats. maybe BXP with and there is a 3rd reff, maybe not. > > only speculation but for a lot of people the strongest reason for supporting Lab or Con is hatred or fear of the other party, when/if neater of them are in top 2 that is no longer an issue, the Right left arguments of the last 70 years have been fully played out, but the BREXIT will still be motivating people at least on the loosing side for years to come. IMO > >
400 seats voted Leave, only 200 voted Remain, a LD v TBP 2022 GE favours TBP under FPTP. The LDs would likely need PR or AV
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > I'm starting to think Raab might actually be our next PM. > > I think he will stand and will pull in some stop Boris votes both from MPs and the members, if necessary. > > I reckon he will be the middle candidate in Boris-Rabb-Remainer/Continuity May. > > 2019 continues to surprise.
He would have to find a personality and support base before that became anything like a possibility
> @Mortimer said: > > @MaxPB said: > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd. > > > > > > > > What about the Greens? > > > > 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense. > > My final predix: > > TBP:40 > LD:22 > GRN:12 > LAB:7 > CON:7 > CUK:4 > UKIP:4
I think you're a little low with your SNP forecast. I can't see them getting zero, but I may be wrong.
Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky.
Finally, 4 for UKIP also looks highly unlikely. Remember, the largest region is the South East with 10 MEPs. If UKIP polls 5% nationally, then they probably miss out almost everywhere. (Don't forget 6% for the LDs only got them a single seat.)
> @Jonathan said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > Might this happen? > > > > > > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct. > > > > > > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit. > > > > The FTPA is designed precisely to avoid abuse of the PM's position like that. Parliament would have the option of voting down that election. I think if necessary it would install a caretaker PM to negotiate an extension. > > > > Not unreasonable, IMHO. If the government wants an election and a car crash, it can run on the car crash and win the election. > > If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice.
Corbyn might go for it, many of his MPs will not as a) they would be likly to lose there seats b) it would guarantee BREXIT and for many, stopping that supersedes loyalty to Corbyn.
> @KentRising said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @MikeL said: > > > Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con. > > > > > > Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab. > > > > > > As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit. > > > > > > It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through. > > > > Indeed, Opinium has a Cons and Brexit Party majority in England BUT Corbyn could still become PM with SNP and Plaid and LD support > > Convention is biggest party gets first chance to form a coalition and I see one between Labour and the SNP and/or Lib Dems as a formality. It'll be that 'Progressive Coalition' bollocks Labour were spouting back in 2010 when Gordon Brown was holed-up in No.10 after losing the election, sofa against the door.... Though as 2015 showed such a prospect boosts the vote for the right at the last minute, English voters do not like the prospect of Sturgeon dictating terms to the UK PM
> > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
> >
> > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
> >
> > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
> >
> > Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
> >
> > Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
>
> Big bang theory final season is more disappointing than GoT...
BBT is a poor American sitcom whereas GoT is the greatest fantasy epic to ever grace the small screen with a subpar ending.
My mrs, a massive BBT fan, was not too impressed with finale. Seemed ok to me. I pointed out that these teary finals are par for the course in US - who can forget the two hour final MASH episode?
> @nico67 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll: > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 . > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense . > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past.
I'm starting to think Raab might actually be our next PM.
I think he will stand and will pull in some stop Boris votes both from MPs and the members, if necessary.
I reckon he will be the middle candidate in Boris-Rabb-Remainer/Continuity May.
2019 continues to surprise.
He had all the charisma and arrogance of a Linklaters corporate NQ. He’s never moved on from being a trainee equity Partner. Which is appropriate, really.
> @Pulpstar said: > What on earth is May hoping to achieve ? > > Is she backing herself for big money in the exit date markets to stay on to the next 3 month slot ?!
> @Quincel said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there > > > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan... > > > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day. > > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited.
There has to be a PM in place until a new leader of the Conservative Party is (s)elected
We don't have a viable concept of a caretaker PM in our current constitutional soup. It could be created - but it seems highly improbable.
The usual course of action is for the PM to step down as leader of their Party and for the election to take place during such time the existing PM continues in office, making the trip to the Palace only once their successor is in place.
> @rcs1000 said: > > Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky. > That's about as risk free a forecast as predicting that the sun won't come up in the morning.
Well, I had wondered whether Farage would stand his troops down if a Hard Brexiter becomes Tory leader. Maybe he would for a while, but the truce would only last as long as it was clear that we were on the way out. If we head towards No Deal and the Remainer Tory MPs vote the government down, I'm sure that Farage will mobilise his troops again.
> @BigRich said: > This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events, > > 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs) > > 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win. > >
The Lib Dems won't be a factor in Peterborough, it just isn't their type of seat. They got less than 4% in 2017. It'll be between Brexit, Con and Labour. Depends on who turns out to vote and how much they're thinking about non-Brexit policies
> @Foxy said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there > > > > > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan... > > > > > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day. > > > > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect. > > Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited.
No he hasn't. He hasn't been unequivocally anything - certainly not anti-Corbyn. He may have issued some less supportive statements - but he has not fully divorced himself from the leadership of his Party.
> @HYUFD said: > > @BigRich said: > > This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events, > > > > 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs) > > > > 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win. > > > > 3) Becomes evident that Boris or another Hard Brexit Leader of Con party will win, a group of remain Con MPs move to LD including people like Healtine (perhaps 80 ish so now 100 LDs) > > > > 4) Looks like a GE on cards, with possible massive loss of seats on lab side, Corbin still holds on as Lab leader, 150 ish Lab MPs move to LD now 250 LD MPs supported By SNP etc call Another Referendum, and win. > > > > 5) more defections from con and Lab to LD to get a majority or at least close enough to govern with SNP ect. and Con to TBP > > > > 6) 2022 GE it becomes LD v TBP with Cons wiped out and a hard core of Corbin supporters backed by Trade unions holding on in 50 or less seats. maybe BXP with and there is a 3rd reff, maybe not. > > > > only speculation but for a lot of people the strongest reason for supporting Lab or Con is hatred or fear of the other party, when/if neater of them are in top 2 that is no longer an issue, the Right left arguments of the last 70 years have been fully played out, but the BREXIT will still be motivating people at least on the loosing side for years to come. IMO > > > > > > 400 seats voted Leave, only 200 voted Remain, a LD v TBP 2022 GE favours TBP under FPTP. The LDs would likely need PR or AV
Yes, but many of those 400 where by slim margins, and there are some soft leave voters who are not necessarily fans of Borris or Farage. and my scenario does not center of a GE, it centers on the MPs who are in Parliament and there priority's and motivations.
Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
> @Jonathan said: > Might this happen? > > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct. > > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit. > > The election becomes all about who gets to negotiate the future relationship from a fait-accompli WTO position. > > Farage's gang stands in Remainer held seats and becomes a minor coalition partner to the Tories is a Leave majority parliament running a WTO Britain,
No.
Or rather, difficult.
You see, it needs two-thirds of the House to vote for dissolution. And Labour in opposition would normally be up for it. But in this case, the opportunity to make it hard for the government would hard to resist. So, the government would not be able to force a dissolution.
Now, it could engineer losing a vote of confidence. However, if they did that the very real risk would be that Remain (or anti-No Deal) MPs would band together and form a government solely for the purpose of asking for an extension for the EU ahead of a General Election.
Comments
> > @MaxPB said:
>
> > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
>
>
>
> What about the Greens?
>
> 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense.
My final predix:
TBP:40
LD:22
GRN:12
LAB:7
CON:7
CUK:4
UKIP:4
I’m not in the country and the UKs elections are not exactly front and centre of consciousness here but I struggle to believe that. Although Corbyn is, despite his supporters beliefs, an expert in failure.
> Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con.
>
> Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
>
> As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
>
> It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
Indeed, Opinium has a Cons and Brexit Party majority in England BUT Corbyn could still become PM with SNP and Plaid and LD support
> The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB.
What Corbyn is worried about is the threat of a non-Corbyn premiership. Whether he loses to Con or BXP isn't the point. A three-way fight between Lab, Con and BXP would be the best scenario he could hope for.
> Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
I did post my prediction last night about 2300:
After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
33% Turnout
31% BXP
21% LD
14% Con
12% Lab
10% Green
4% CHUK
4% UKIP
4% Other
> It makes no sense for TMay to go on 10th June.
>
> New Con leader won't be elected by then - so would mean she stays on for two weeks and then hands over to Lidington for approx six weeks before new leader takes over.
>
> Surely that can't be right - would be a total mess.
It seems a very odd message.
'I'm today announcing that I'm going to announce my resignation on the 10th'
Huh?
> Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con.
>
> Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
>
> As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
>
> It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
All any Tory leader needs to do is get through some, any, ANY version of Brexit. It can be WTO------- through to Customs, Single Market, Norway Ireland+++++.
But no version is getting through - could Boris bring the ERG round to a supersoft Brexit ? He might but there is still the DUP and Corbyn doesn't want to give an inch to any Tory proposal either.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
>
> I did post my prediction last night about 2300:
>
> After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
>
> 33% Turnout
>
> 31% BXP
> 21% LD
> 14% Con
> 12% Lab
> 10% Green
> 4% CHUK
> 4% UKIP
> 4% Other
So essentially a three-way tie between Remain, Hard Brexit and Compromise.
> > @MikeL said:
> > It makes no sense for TMay to go on 10th June.
> >
> > New Con leader won't be elected by then - so would mean she stays on for two weeks and then hands over to Lidington for approx six weeks before new leader takes over.
> >
> > Surely that can't be right - would be a total mess.
>
> It seems a very odd message.
>
> 'I'm today announcing that I'm going to announce my resignation on the 10th'
>
> Huh?
Yes it is like a couple planning to become engaged.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> >
> > Right. The perception was that Davis won (Cameron 'sounded too much like Blair'!) but not by enough.
> ------
>
> In that debate David Davis said his plan to renegotiate with the EU involved a second referendum.
Not sure Davis would have pulled off the Coalition government or a majority in 2015. The right man won that leadership contest and all was rosey - until 23rd June 2016, that is.
> Grieve will VONC a Tory No Deal.
> This point seemed not to compute with Suella. The ERG haven't quite twigged the Tories have no majority.
She doesn’t appear to be the sharpest tool.
>
> What Corbyn is worried about is the threat of a non-Corbyn premiership. Whether he loses to Con or BXP isn't the point. A three-way fight between Lab, Con and BXP would be the best scenario he could hope for.
Except it will be a four-way fight with the Lib Dems...
> It makes no sense for TMay to go on 10th June.
>
> New Con leader won't be elected by then - so would mean she stays on for two weeks and then hands over to Lidington for approx six weeks before new leader takes over.
>
> Surely that can't be right - would be a total mess.
I guess this is about not standing next to Trump as an officially lame duck.
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
For whom, if anyone, did they vote ?
> Survation still reckon Labour will do much better than Lib Dems. Why are people discounting them?
Because they don't have an obvious position in an Ulsterised environment.
Remainers will vote for proper Remain party, Leavers for a proper Leave party.
Only the most tribal will vote Lab.
So far only @dixiedean admits to having voted Lab today!
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
Because of brexit or despite it? -;)
1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs)
2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win.
3) Becomes evident that Boris or another Hard Brexit Leader of Con party will win, a group of remain Con MPs move to LD including people like Healtine (perhaps 80 ish so now 100 LDs)
4) Looks like a GE on cards, with possible massive loss of seats on lab side, Corbin still holds on as Lab leader, 150 ish Lab MPs move to LD now 250 LD MPs supported By SNP etc call Another Referendum, and win.
5) more defections from con and Lab to LD to get a majority or at least close enough to govern with SNP ect. and Con to TBP
6) 2022 GE it becomes LD v TBP with Cons wiped out and a hard core of Corbin supporters backed by Trade unions holding on in 50 or less seats. maybe BXP with and there is a 3rd reff, maybe not.
only speculation but for a lot of people the strongest reason for supporting Lab or Con is hatred or fear of the other party, when/if neater of them are in top 2 that is no longer an issue, the Right left arguments of the last 70 years have been fully played out, but the BREXIT will still be motivating people at least on the loosing side for years to come. IMO
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
Yep. Corbz is going to finish beneath a Tory PM who is about to resign, isn't he....
> The Daily Mail's Survation poll:
>
> https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 .
Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense .
The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
> Might this happen?
>
> New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct.
>
> As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
The FTPA is designed precisely to avoid abuse of the PM's position like that. Parliament would have the option of voting down that election. I think if necessary it would install a caretaker PM to negotiate an extension.
Not unreasonable, IMHO. If the government wants an election and a car crash, it can run on the car crash and win the election.
> Might this happen?
>
> New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct.
>
> As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
>
> The election becomes all about who gets to negotiate the future relationship from a fait-accompli WTO position.
>
> Farage's gang stands in Remainer held seats and becomes a minor coalition partner to the Tories is a Leave majority parliament running a WTO Britain,
Parliament needs to consent to a GE - and I am not sure that the votes for it exist. Corbyn would have enough reason to refuse to go along (even with his demand for an election) because his party would not vote for a Hard Brexit
Of course, Corbyn could also face a challenge - which might change much
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
>
> Same here. A Labour friend of mine (party member in London) thinks they will finish third in London and fourth nationally.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare to spend a lot of time on your allotments
Must be as if it was a stitch up they’d surely think of that
> Except it will be a four-way fight with the Lib Dems...
This is of course true. But faced with a headbanger Tory and Farage, I think a lot of Remainers would suck it up and vote Labour again, provided he committed to a referendum.
Brexit Party 31%
Labour 23%
Cons 14%
LDs 12%
Greens 7%
CUK 4%
UKIP 3%
SNP 3%
General Election
Labour 33%
Cons 28%
LDs 13%
Brexit Party 12%
43% more likely to vote Tory under a Boris leadership, 24% less likely and 57% want May to resign though 54% blame Tory rebels for Brexit failure, only 27% May.
36% back Boris as new Tory leader miles ahead of second placed Javid on 9%, Gove on 7% and Hunt on 5%, Leadsom and Raab on 3% with McVey
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
> The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB.
But the problem for the Brexit party in a General Election is that they have no actual policies apart from no deal Brexit. Once people realise this their support would probably drop to about 15 % which would result in a couple of MPs. The question is who would get their former voters back Labour or the Tories?
> @Mortimer I get that but then why is Survation not showing that in the polling? Just wrong methodology?
I do wonder how the pollsters are dealing with such a fragmented landscape.
> The Tories could be very vulnerable to a VONC in parliament while in the middle of their leadership election.
They could - but it would be very un-British to make such a move.
Corbyn might go for it - given his love of anything un-British
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Might this happen?
> >
> > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct.
> >
> > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
>
> The FTPA is designed precisely to avoid abuse of the PM's position like that. Parliament would have the option of voting down that election. I think if necessary it would install a caretaker PM to negotiate an extension.
>
> Not unreasonable, IMHO. If the government wants an election and a car crash, it can run on the car crash and win the election.
If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice.
> Is it a trick of the light or are those ties different colours?
>
---------
It looks more like yogurt than milkshake. Nothing about that story rings true...
Edit: on balance, want is unfair. Don’t give a shit about the the consequences for the employed who fund his lifestyle isn’t though.
> Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
Squeaky bum time for Khan...
> > @Dadge said:
> > The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB.
>
> But the problem for the Brexit party in a General Election is that they have no actual policies apart from no deal Brexit. Once people realise this their support would probably drop to about 15 % which would result in a couple of MPs. The question is who would get their former voters back Labour or the Tories?
They would also need 650 candidates....
> Max - why do you think labour will do even worse than the tories?
My logic was partly anecdata, but only one of my Labour friends was planning to vote Labour, and that because she was a friend of the candidate. I thought that a lot of Labour voters would stay at home, except those fired up to tactically vote against Brexit.
I also thought the Tories oversold. There are a lot of Loyalists, some who like the deal, and some who are sympathetic to May personally.
> @Mortimer I get that but then why is Survation not showing that in the polling? Just wrong methodology?
I have no idea - but it seems to be totally divorced from everyone's experience.
> > @MikeL said:
> > Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con.
> >
> > Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
> >
> > As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
> >
> > It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
>
> Indeed, Opinium has a Cons and Brexit Party majority in England BUT Corbyn could still become PM with SNP and Plaid and LD support
Convention is biggest party gets first chance to form a coalition and I see one between Labour and the SNP and/or Lib Dems as a formality. It'll be that 'Progressive Coalition' bollocks Labour were spouting back in 2010 when Gordon Brown was holed-up in No.10 after losing the election, sofa against the door....
> Is it a trick of the light or are those ties different colours?
>
> Must be as if it was a stitch up they’d surely think of that
It's the extra sunlight in the top picture. Look at the colouring of the bricks next to him
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
>
> For whom, if anyone, did they vote ?
>
LD -> Green -> Change -> Abstain
> Is it a trick of the light or are those ties different colours?
>
> Must be as if it was a stitch up they’d surely think of that
At least they didn't make his hat bigger.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Survation still reckon Labour will do much better than Lib Dems. Why are people discounting them?
>
> Because they don't have an obvious position in an Ulsterised environment.
>
> Remainers will vote for proper Remain party, Leavers for a proper Leave party.
>
> Only the most tribal will vote Lab.
>
> So far only @dixiedean admits to having voted Lab today!
Not a tribal vote, but a tactical one. If I thought LD, Chuk, Green, or even Con were best placed to stop 2 Brexit MEPs, I'd have voted them in a shot.
3 other PBers I know of were planning to as well. They can speak for themselves.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
>
> Squeaky bum time for Khan...
I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
>
> Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
>
> But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
Half of my lot are scientists and engineers. Pretty good ones too.
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
>
> Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
>
> But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
>
> Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
>
> Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
Big bang theory final season is more disappointing than GoT...
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
>
> Suspect this is very possible... Total wipeout for Con
It's actually pretty unlikely. In the South East region there are 10 candidates returned. Now, once we eliminate all the sub 5% votes - such as CHUK, UKIP, etc. - then there's probably 90% of the vote remaining. That means that, realistically, you need about 6.5% of the vote to get a seat.
Given South East England is one of the most Conservative parts of the UK, it would be utterly staggering if they did not get to 6.5% there.
Personally, I think the Cons will make double digits, and get half a dozen seats.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The Daily Mail's Survation poll:
> >
> > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
>
> Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 .
>
> Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense .
>
> The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
At least there isn't any herding.
I think he will stand and will pull in some stop Boris votes both from MPs and the members, if necessary.
I reckon he will be the middle candidate in Boris-Rabb-Remainer/Continuity May.
2019 continues to surprise.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
> >
> > Squeaky bum time for Khan...
>
> I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131674812236083200
In politics no one can hear you scream.
> > @Saltire said:
> > > @Dadge said:
> > > The Brexit Party is now at levels of support that could it see it winning a general election. It needs about 30%. This complicates an over-complicated situation still further. Is this now a Sword of Damocles hanging over parliament? It would appear that we can't now have a pre-Brexit general election without the threat of a Farage premiership. Ever since May embarked on her Blue Brexit strategy, Corbyn has been content not to co-operate, in order that an early election would eventually be called that he had a good chance of winning. Is that dream now over? If so, I really can't see any earthly reason why he wouldn't direct his party to support the WAB.
> >
> > But the problem for the Brexit party in a General Election is that they have no actual policies apart from no deal Brexit. Once people realise this their support would probably drop to about 15 % which would result in a couple of MPs. The question is who would get their former voters back Labour or the Tories?
>
> They would also need 650 candidates....
They would find enough - whether they vet them properly is another matter entirely.
We are in unpredictable times. And I don't like it
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
> >
> > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
> >
> > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
> >
> > Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
> >
> > Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
>
> Big bang theory final season is more disappointing than GoT...
BBT is a poor American sitcom whereas GoT is the greatest fantasy epic to ever grace the small screen with a subpar ending.
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
>
> Same here. A Labour friend of mine (party member in London) thinks they will finish third in London and fourth nationally.
Behind Brexit, LD, and who else? Tories surely not holding onto many more party members than Labour. Greens?!
Who knows tbh, but I'd be extremely surprised.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
> >
> > Same here. A Labour friend of mine (party member in London) thinks they will finish third in London and fourth nationally.
>
> Go back to your constituencies and prepare to spend a lot of time on your allotments
Chimes with me - as someone who is formerly devoted to Labour but anti-Corbyn often have had arguments with mates who are on the left but Don't understand the awfulness. No problem this time. Their campaign was an utter disgrace 'vote us or the far right' gave casual left wing voters no positive reason to vote for a party with deep issues. And when the Lib Dems and Greens surged it was a free kick. The Corbynite left struggle with the fact they are the establishment now and have to win support rather than be owed it as a protest against bad stuff.
(Apologies to Nick P).
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
> > >
> > > Squeaky bum time for Khan...
> >
> > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
>
> Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
Shaun Bailey has the wrong price right now in the race.
> This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events,
>
> 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs)
>
> 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win.
>
> 3) Becomes evident that Boris or another Hard Brexit Leader of Con party will win, a group of remain Con MPs move to LD including people like Healtine (perhaps 80 ish so now 100 LDs)
>
> 4) Looks like a GE on cards, with possible massive loss of seats on lab side, Corbin still holds on as Lab leader, 150 ish Lab MPs move to LD now 250 LD MPs supported By SNP etc call Another Referendum, and win.
>
> 5) more defections from con and Lab to LD to get a majority or at least close enough to govern with SNP ect. and Con to TBP
>
> 6) 2022 GE it becomes LD v TBP with Cons wiped out and a hard core of Corbin supporters backed by Trade unions holding on in 50 or less seats. maybe BXP with and there is a 3rd reff, maybe not.
>
> only speculation but for a lot of people the strongest reason for supporting Lab or Con is hatred or fear of the other party, when/if neater of them are in top 2 that is no longer an issue, the Right left arguments of the last 70 years have been fully played out, but the BREXIT will still be motivating people at least on the loosing side for years to come. IMO
>
>
400 seats voted Leave, only 200 voted Remain, a LD v TBP 2022 GE favours TBP under FPTP. The LDs would likely need PR or AV
> I'm starting to think Raab might actually be our next PM.
>
> I think he will stand and will pull in some stop Boris votes both from MPs and the members, if necessary.
>
> I reckon he will be the middle candidate in Boris-Rabb-Remainer/Continuity May.
>
> 2019 continues to surprise.
He would have to find a personality and support base before that became anything like a possibility
> > @MaxPB said:
> > > @MaxPB said:
> >
> > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
> >
> >
> >
> > What about the Greens?
> >
> > 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense.
>
> My final predix:
>
> TBP:40
> LD:22
> GRN:12
> LAB:7
> CON:7
> CUK:4
> UKIP:4
I think you're a little low with your SNP forecast. I can't see them getting zero, but I may be wrong.
Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky.
Finally, 4 for UKIP also looks highly unlikely. Remember, the largest region is the South East with 10 MEPs. If UKIP polls 5% nationally, then they probably miss out almost everywhere. (Don't forget 6% for the LDs only got them a single seat.)
This is not a good look. Screams ‘control your wife Phil’.
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > Might this happen?
> > >
> > > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct.
> > >
> > > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
> >
> > The FTPA is designed precisely to avoid abuse of the PM's position like that. Parliament would have the option of voting down that election. I think if necessary it would install a caretaker PM to negotiate an extension.
> >
> > Not unreasonable, IMHO. If the government wants an election and a car crash, it can run on the car crash and win the election.
>
> If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice.
Corbyn might go for it, many of his MPs will not as a) they would be likly to lose there seats b) it would guarantee BREXIT and for many, stopping that supersedes loyalty to Corbyn.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @MikeL said:
> > > Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con.
> > >
> > > Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
> > >
> > > As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
> > >
> > > It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
> >
> > Indeed, Opinium has a Cons and Brexit Party majority in England BUT Corbyn could still become PM with SNP and Plaid and LD support
>
> Convention is biggest party gets first chance to form a coalition and I see one between Labour and the SNP and/or Lib Dems as a formality. It'll be that 'Progressive Coalition' bollocks Labour were spouting back in 2010 when Gordon Brown was holed-up in No.10 after losing the election, sofa against the door....
Though as 2015 showed such a prospect boosts the vote for the right at the last minute, English voters do not like the prospect of Sturgeon dictating terms to the UK PM
> Aaaaghhhhh!!!!!!!!!
>
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131674812236083200
>
> In politics no one can hear you scream.
You gotta be kidding....just go.
Is she backing herself for big money in the exit date markets to stay on to the next 3 month slot ?!
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The Daily Mail's Survation poll:
> >
> > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
>
> Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 .
>
> Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense .
>
> The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
> What on earth is May hoping to achieve ?
>
> Is she backing herself for big money in the exit date markets to stay on to the next 3 month slot ?!
The national debt isn't going to repay itself....
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
> > >
> > > Squeaky bum time for Khan...
> >
> > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
>
> Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited.
> https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1131676058569383936
>
>
>
> This is not a good look. Screams ‘control your wife Phil’.
https://youtu.be/LS37SNYjg8w
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Aaaaghhhhh!!!!!!!!!
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131674812236083200
> >
> > In politics no one can hear you scream.
>
> You gotta be kidding....just go.
She can't 'just go'
There has to be a PM in place until a new leader of the Conservative Party is (s)elected
We don't have a viable concept of a caretaker PM in our current constitutional soup. It could be created - but it seems highly improbable.
The usual course of action is for the PM to step down as leader of their Party and for the election to take place during such time the existing PM continues in office, making the trip to the Palace only once their successor is in place.
It is how it works.
>
> Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky.
>
That's about as risk free a forecast as predicting that the sun won't come up in the morning.
> https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1131676091658190850
>
>
>
> That's idiotic, if Boris becomes PM then it stands to reason BP will fade and our star rises again.
Well, I had wondered whether Farage would stand his troops down if a Hard Brexiter becomes Tory leader. Maybe he would for a while, but the truce would only last as long as it was clear that we were on the way out. If we head towards No Deal and the Remainer Tory MPs vote the government down, I'm sure that Farage will mobilise his troops again.
> This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events,
>
> 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs)
>
> 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win.
>
>
The Lib Dems won't be a factor in Peterborough, it just isn't their type of seat. They got less than 4% in 2017. It'll be between Brexit, Con and Labour. Depends on who turns out to vote and how much they're thinking about non-Brexit policies
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
> > > >
> > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan...
> > >
> > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
> >
> > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
>
> Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited.
No he hasn't. He hasn't been unequivocally anything - certainly not anti-Corbyn. He may have issued some less supportive statements - but he has not fully divorced himself from the leadership of his Party.
> > @BigRich said:
> > This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events,
> >
> > 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs)
> >
> > 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win.
> >
> > 3) Becomes evident that Boris or another Hard Brexit Leader of Con party will win, a group of remain Con MPs move to LD including people like Healtine (perhaps 80 ish so now 100 LDs)
> >
> > 4) Looks like a GE on cards, with possible massive loss of seats on lab side, Corbin still holds on as Lab leader, 150 ish Lab MPs move to LD now 250 LD MPs supported By SNP etc call Another Referendum, and win.
> >
> > 5) more defections from con and Lab to LD to get a majority or at least close enough to govern with SNP ect. and Con to TBP
> >
> > 6) 2022 GE it becomes LD v TBP with Cons wiped out and a hard core of Corbin supporters backed by Trade unions holding on in 50 or less seats. maybe BXP with and there is a 3rd reff, maybe not.
> >
> > only speculation but for a lot of people the strongest reason for supporting Lab or Con is hatred or fear of the other party, when/if neater of them are in top 2 that is no longer an issue, the Right left arguments of the last 70 years have been fully played out, but the BREXIT will still be motivating people at least on the loosing side for years to come. IMO
> >
> >
>
> 400 seats voted Leave, only 200 voted Remain, a LD v TBP 2022 GE favours TBP under FPTP. The LDs would likely need PR or AV
Yes, but many of those 400 where by slim margins, and there are some soft leave voters who are not necessarily fans of Borris or Farage. and my scenario does not center of a GE, it centers on the MPs who are in Parliament and there priority's and motivations.
> Might this happen?
>
> New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct.
>
> As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
>
> The election becomes all about who gets to negotiate the future relationship from a fait-accompli WTO position.
>
> Farage's gang stands in Remainer held seats and becomes a minor coalition partner to the Tories is a Leave majority parliament running a WTO Britain,
No.
Or rather, difficult.
You see, it needs two-thirds of the House to vote for dissolution. And Labour in opposition would normally be up for it. But in this case, the opportunity to make it hard for the government would hard to resist. So, the government would not be able to force a dissolution.
Now, it could engineer losing a vote of confidence. However, if they did that the very real risk would be that Remain (or anti-No Deal) MPs would band together and form a government solely for the purpose of asking for an extension for the EU ahead of a General Election.