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Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1129680862503723008
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>
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>
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> I like Rachel Johnson but she really should have stuck with the Lib Dems . I think Change UK became over confident when they were the Ind group and then since then it’s been a total shambles .
>
> The 'Never Boris' Tory MPs like Greening will head to the LibDems I think, after these EU elections have shown the party has life in it after all. Change UK seem to think the LD brand was permanently 'Ratnered'. It seems not.
Funnily enough the Ratner jewellery chain survived, and is still the largest chain in the UK. It simply renamed and moved on from him. Maybe ChangeUK hoped to do that to/for the LDs, or maybe it's what the LDs will do for them!0 -
> @nico67 said:
> Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
>
> Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
>
> If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
Correct. Labour will move formally to a remain and reform position by the party conference at the latest, and probably before.0 -
> @Quincel said:
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> >
> >
>
> I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
But they ain't got no mo.....0 -
He's safe as houses - Corbyn might well be a leaver at heart, but he's been leader long enough to not throw his support away over the subject.nico67 said:Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .0 -
Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
>
> There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
>
> Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
On current rules/practice, yes.
Although there could well be some early trading...0 -
> @MarqueeMark said:
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
>
> But they ain't got no mo.....
I see the potential value, but it's like backing a fading horse to maybe squeeze out a place. It's not a great look.0 -
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> @MarqueeMark said:
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
>
> But they ain't got no mo.....
Really struggling to think of who is likely to vote for them and why. Guess some LD types who cant forgive actual LD party for the coalition and tuition fees. Anyone else? Is that over 5%?0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
>
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.0 -
Last night the Coalition in Australia was 10/1 and I confess I put a small amount of money on them. I'm amazed to switch on ABC News Australia to find they're doing much better than expected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVsKhaJuw8M0 -
> @noneoftheabove said:
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
> >
> > But they ain't got no mo.....
>
> Really struggling to think of who is likely to vote for them and why. Guess some LD types who cant forgive actual LD party for the coalition and tuition fees. Anyone else? Is that over 5%?
Really telling that there are no signs for ChUK in Totnes - Dr. Sarah Wollaston's seat. Labour/LibDem's/Greens all more attractive options here it seems.0 -
And if the EU is unwilling to reform? Would you/they advocate leaving then?anothernick said:> @nico67 said:
> Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
>
> Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
>
> If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
Correct. Labour will move formally to a remain and reform position by the party conference at the latest, and probably before.0 -
> @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
> >
> > There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
> >
> > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
>
> On current rules/practice, yes.
>
> Although there could well be some early trading...
Yep. Most of those 17 are just looking for Cabinet places. I doubt there'll be more than 4 or 5 rounds of voting.0 -
Iain Martin is deluded .
Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
>
> There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
>
> Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
And, as of now the rules are a vote on Tuesday then one on Thursday. We could be the best part of 2 months before it is whittled down to two.
Don't waste this time indeed.0 -
It's the UK that needs reform.Charles said:And if the EU is unwilling to reform? Would you/they advocate leaving then?
0 -
Looks like all the polls were wrong in Australia.0
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Another polling failure !0
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A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.1 -
> @nico67 said:
> Iain Martin is deluded .
>
> Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
>
> If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
>
> The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
If Hanretty's analysis was correct, 2/3rds of the Westminster seats voted leave.
There is no path to majority government through Remain whilst the SNP have that vote nailed down in Scotland.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> Looks like all the polls were wrong in Australia.
The polls were right for NSW/Vic.
But, it doesn't look as though the pollsters measured Tas/Qld right.0 -
Well that was a great cheeky £10 bet on the Coalition.0
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> @williamglenn said:
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
> >
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
>
> If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.
The Tory death wish gives every impression of being even stronger than the Labour one.0 -
Let's hope so, or it will take weeks. Some of us have money tied up.MarqueeMark said:> @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
> >
> > There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
> >
> > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
>
> On current rules/practice, yes.
>
> Although there could well be some early trading...
Yep. Most of those 17 are just looking for Cabinet places. I doubt there'll be more than 4 or 5 rounds of voting.0 -
You'd surely have a ton of withdrawals after the first round though, then a pile more after 2nd.dixiedean said:
And, as of now the rules are a vote on Tuesday then one on Thursday. We could be the best part of 2 months before it is whittled down to two.
Don't waste this time indeed.
0 -
10 to 1. Those were the odds on the Australian government winning the election last night. Amazing.0
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> @williamglenn said:
> And if the EU is unwilling to reform? Would you/they advocate leaving then?
>
> It's the UK that needs reform.
LOL - beyond parody0 -
Anthony Green from ABC news says Labor cannot form a majority Government on the current numbers from Australia
Currently Coalition 74 Labor 66 Others 5
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-17/live-coverage-federal-election-2019-scott-morrison-bill-shorten/111186320 -
Firstly, this is no longer 2016 and the map of Leave and Remain now looks different. Secondly, if the Brexit Party threatens to take Labour seats in the North and Midlands, a vote for Labour becomes ineffective as a way to stop the Tories. Indeed stopping the Tories becomes irrelevant because their vote will be split to such an extent they will be in trouble in their safe seats. This clears the path for a party of Remain to come through the middle, and it looks like the Lib Dems are in a position where they could pull it off.thecommissioner said:If Hanretty's analysis was correct, 2/3rds of the Westminster seats voted leave.
There is no path to majority government through Remain whilst the SNP have that vote nailed down in Scotland.0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> And if the EU is unwilling to reform? Would you/they advocate leaving then?
>
> It's the UK that needs reform.
I'll bite. In what way?0 -
0
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> @thecommissioner said:
> Genius.
>
> https://twitter.com/themiltonjones/status/1129427260124147712
LMAO - and about as much presence and control too0 -
"This is a headline from just a few hours ago:
"Labor in box seat for victory as Liberal vote falls, exit poll shows"
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-in-box-seat-for-victory-as-liberal-vote-falls-exit-poll-shows-20190518-p51ord.html0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
> >
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
>
> If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.
Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?0 -
> @MaxPB said:
> A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
>
> This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Abbott's favourite Dutton as well as Turnbull's Finance Minister, he is basically an Aussie John Major visiting marginal seats around the clock until the end against the odds.
Abbott though has lost his seat tonight0 -
I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?0
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Australian Twitter users are going into meltdown over the election result.
https://twitter.com/search?q=ausvotes1 -
Indeed. And some people are claiming the FTPA means there wouldn't be a GE, except if neither BoZo nor Corbyn can command confidence, then there would beAlastairMeeks said:Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> Looks like all the polls were wrong in Australia.
The current projection is 74-66 with 6 Others but my uninformed guess is the Others split 5-1 against the Coalition so the "true" balance may be 75-71 with 5 seats too close to call.
With the Coalition ahead in 2 of the 5 it looks like Morrison will be returned with 76 with Labor on 69 and Others on 6.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> > @MaxPB said:
> > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
> >
> > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
>
> Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Abbott's favourite Dutton as well as Turnbull's Finance Minister, he is basically an Aussie John Major visiting marginal seats around the clock until the end against the odds.
>
> Abbott though has lost his seat tonight
>
It looks like the urban areas have been okay for Labor but the suburban and rural areas have actually swung to the government.0 -
> @MaxPB said:
> A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
>
> This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
More 1992, Cameron's Tories were tied with Labour in most polls then while the Tories trailed in most polls in 1992 as the Coalition did before this Australian general election0 -
Dewey defeats Truman...oh bugger.AndyJS said:"This is a headline from just a few hours ago:
"Labor in box seat for victory as Liberal vote falls, exit poll shows"
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-in-box-seat-for-victory-as-liberal-vote-falls-exit-poll-shows-20190518-p51ord.html0 -
Hold on.Scott_P said:
Indeed. And some people are claiming the FTPA means there wouldn't be a GE, except if neither BoZo nor Corbyn can command confidence, then there would beAlastairMeeks said:Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
Are we heading to even more bonkers scenario.
May remains PM while the leadership election is run. New leader is Boris.
Boris cannot command a confidence vote.
May remains as PM. Boris as leader.
MV 5 is launched...0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> > @MaxPB said:
> > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
> >
> > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
>
> More 1992, Cameron's Tories were tied with Labour in most polls then while the Tories trailed in most polls in 1992 as the Coalition did before this Australian general election
BBC were reporting that Labour were in the lead. Is that not right?0 -
-
> @dixiedean said:
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
> >
> > There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
> >
> > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
>
> And, as of now the rules are a vote on Tuesday then one on Thursday. We could be the best part of 2 months before it is whittled down to two.
> Don't waste this time indeed.
Will it be possible for even the most Anglophile EU leader to argue that we _haven't_ wasted the time?0 -
George Osborne, still getting it wrong:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/australian-elections-labor-tipped-to-win-election-and-replace-conservative-government-as-votes-are-a4145491.html0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
>
> Indeed. And some people are claiming the FTPA means there wouldn't be a GE, except if neither BoZo nor Corbyn can command confidence, then there would be
>
> Hold on.
>
> Are we heading to even more bonkers scenario.
>
> May remains PM while the leadership election is run. New leader is Boris.
>
> Boris cannot command a confidence vote.
>
> May remains as PM. Boris as leader.
>
> MV 5 is launched...
I expect there would quickly be a no confidence vote in Theresa May, at which point everything would move at high speed. The idea of Boris Johnson as Dr Strangelove, however, riding the no deal bomb against the will of the House of Commons is for the birds.0 -
I've seen much more hysterical reaction to defeat in fairness.AndyJS said:Australian Twitter users are going into meltdown over the election result.
https://twitter.com/search?q=ausvotes0 -
leaflet watch - This household in North Essex has had leaflets from every party...... except the tories.
Not particularly targeted though - one son who has never voted ever got one personally from Vince.
As did I - and I have previously told their canvessors that whilst I really appreciate their work on a local level there is no way on gods earth I would vote for them in any European election.
Perhaps they put me down as a "maybe" :-)0 -
ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia0
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> @kle4 said:
> Australian Twitter users are going into meltdown over the election result.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/search?q=ausvotes
>
> I've seen much more hysterical reaction to defeat in fairness.
You mean certain remainers on here don't you :-)0 -
One joke Felton still desperate for that big break!Scott_P said:0 -
Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally!
So far that's:
Labour
(NO) Chnage UK
The Brexit Party
Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!0 -
> @Nemtynakht said:
> I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?
A lot of Remainers wouldn’t support that position . Unless it came to a no deal where more might get behind it . If Change UK had revoke as a Labour Remainer I’d still be supporting the Lib Dems position . I’m happy to give a 100% support to another vote but am very wary of revoke unless it was supported by a second vote .0 -
I've had Labour and the Brexit Party. Usual generic pack of lies from both. No effort or thought put in. Unfortunately political parties don't seem to care about my postcode.GIN1138 said:Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally!
So far that's:
Labour
(NO) Chnage UK
The Brexit Party
Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
> >
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
>
> If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.
Bring It On. Make. Our. Day.0 -
LibDem, Green and Brexit here so far.GIN1138 said:Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally!
So far that's:
Labour
(NO) Chnage UK
The Brexit Party
Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!0 -
This is still on Sky New's website:
"Opinion polls suggest the conservative Liberal Party-led coalition will lose its bid for a third three-year term."
https://news.sky.com/story/polling-starts-to-close-in-australian-election-117227640 -
> @nico67 said:
> Iain Martin is deluded .
>
> Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
>
> If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
>
> The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain.
As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win0 -
> @GIN1138 said:
> Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally!
>
> So far that's:
>
> Labour
> (NO) Chnage UK
> The Brexit Party
>
> Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!
----------------------
Just the Brexit party and the Greens here. This is a high postal vote area (lots of elderly voters) and I should think we are probably just past peak postal vote time so any new leaflets are likely to be wasted.0 -
Just seen the news about US warning commercial airliners flying over Persian Gulf that they might get "misidentified"
Oh boy......1 -
Well, the headline is quite correct. The opinion polls did suggest that.AndyJS said:This is still on Sky New's website:
"Opinion polls suggest the conservative Liberal Party-led coalition will lose its bid for a third three-year term."
https://news.sky.com/story/polling-starts-to-close-in-australian-election-11722764
But - and who would have thought this, eh? - turns out they were talking horseshit.
https://youtu.be/wxlhyX-4qKI0 -
nichomar said:
What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.Luckyguy1983 said:
You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.Cyclefree said:> @thecommissioner said:
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > Not yet, anyway.
>
>
>
> It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
>
>
> There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
>
>
> Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
"Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.0 -
> @ydoethur said:
> ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia
>
> This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation0 -
https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wireStory/us-warns-airliners-flying-persian-gulf-amid-iran-63119307
Aviation Insurers will not like hearing that.0 -
Sky News projecting Liberals to win a Majority Government in Australia, ABC not there yet though
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/5cdbbeed23eec6001c793214
https://www.abc.net.au/news/newschannel/0 -
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> @Cyclefree said:
> What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Not yet, anyway.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
>
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
>
>
>
> "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
>
>
> But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> > @nico67 said:
> > Iain Martin is deluded .
> >
> > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
> >
> > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
> >
> > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
>
> 400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain.
>
> As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
The current alliance in Australia is not the best match for the Tories so that doesn’t apply . The 400 seats to 200 covers quite a few that were marginal . The Tories cannot win without Scottish and city/larger towns MPs.0 -
Welcome to leaverworld where everything is fine so long as the pensions and state benefits keep flowing.Cyclefree said:nichomar said:What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.Luckyguy1983 said:
You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.Cyclefree said:> @thecommissioner said:
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > Not yet, anyway.
>
>
>
> It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
>
>
> There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
>
>
> Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
"Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
Edit, I see the likely voting pattens wholly reflect leaverworld as the entitled elderly. The ones who expect the young to pay for everything and get nothing because “I’ve paid my taxes all my life...”.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> "This is a headline from just a few hours ago:
>
> "Labor in box seat for victory as Liberal vote falls, exit poll shows"
>
> https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-in-box-seat-for-victory-as-liberal-vote-falls-exit-poll-shows-20190518-p51ord.html
Reminds me of the infamous 'Dewey beats Truman' headlines in 19480 -
Some suggestions:twistedfirestopper3 said:I'll bite. In what way?
- Electoral reform so we get parties more aligned with what people think
- An English parliament (perhaps in Loughborough?) and as a minimum a much looser UK
- Serious investment in infrastructure0 -
So is this the biggest polling failure....since the last big poll failure?0
-
> @nico67 said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Iain Martin is deluded .
> > >
> > > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
> > >
> > > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
> > >
> > > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
> >
> > 400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain.
> >
> > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
>
> The current alliance in Australia is not the best match for the Tories so that doesn’t apply . The 400 seats to 200 covers quite a few that were marginal . The Tories cannot win without Scottish and city/larger towns MPs.
>
>
>
>
Rubbish, the ONLY reason Labour is ahead in current polls is because of the Brexit Party. Add the Brexit Party and Tory votes together and you get significantly more than the Corbyn Labour vote.
Plenty of Australian marginal seats were suburban not rural and it looks like the Coalition has won a majority of those and small towns.
Neither the Coalition nor the Tories need a majority of inner city seats to win0 -
The trouble is that campaigning for a no deal Brexit is not at all conservative.HYUFD said:As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
0 -
Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
https://twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/11297107832171315200 -
> @matt said:
> What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Not yet, anyway.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
>
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
>
>
>
> "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
>
>
> But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
>
> Welcome to leaverworld where everything is fine so long as the pensions and state benefits keep flowing.
>
> Edit, I see the likely voting pattens wholly reflect leaverworld as the entitled elderly. The ones who expect the young to pay for everything and get nothing because “I’ve paid my taxes all my life...”.
It’s entirely in keeping that they should be led by a man who sounds off about immigrants draining resources who himself has a sugar daddy.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
>
> twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
>
> The trouble is that campaigning for a no deal Brexit is not at all conservative.
It is more conservative than going full Heathite and trying to revoke Brexit altogether.
Though the best solution for the Tories remains to get the Withdrawal Agreement through0 -
> @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> >
> > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
>
> Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
Yep.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> > >
> > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
> >
> > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
>
> Yep.
Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.0 -
-
> @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> > > >
> > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
> > >
> > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
> >
> > Yep.
>
> Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.
Reminds me of the person who bet hundreds of thousands of pounds on Remain.0 -
If the Coalition don't get an outright majority, do they need to go into another coalition?0
-
Coalition now up to 74, Labor 65, Greens 1, Others 5.
Anthony Green says the Coalition will form the next government but not yet clear if a minority or majority Morrison government.
Green says Labor were slaughtered in Queensland with a 4% swing to the Coalition despite a 2% swing to Labor in Victoria0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> Coalition now up to 74, Labor 65, Greens 1, Others 5.
>
> Anthony Green says the Coalition will form the next government but not yet clear if a minority or majority Morrison government.
>
> Green says Labor were slaughtered in Queensland with a 4% swing to the Coalition despite a 2% swing to Labor in Victoria
>
The polls were predicting a 6% swing to Labor in Queensland until a few days ago.0 -
That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?Floater said:> @Cyclefree said:
>
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
> > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
>
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
>
>
>
> "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
>
>
> But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> > > > >
> > > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
> > > >
> > > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
> > >
> > > Yep.
> >
> > Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.
>
> Reminds me of the person who bet hundreds of thousands of pounds on Remain.
__________________________________
Crispin Odey gambled - er no, 'invested' - £ millions or more on the UK never leaving the EU.
It remains to be seen if that was a smart bet.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
This is the same poll that has the Lib Dems on only 12% for the European elections.
https://www.survation.com/daily-mail-18-05-19-final-tables/0 -
While his detractors were busy mocking, he was busy winning. First America, now Australia... It could happen here tooHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/theweeklytv/status/1128624880499355648?s=210 -
Former Australia PM John Howard speaking to ABC news at the Liberal Party HQ as they prepare to celebrate victory
https://www.abc.net.au/news/newschannel/0
This discussion has been closed.