politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2020 Democrat contest is likely to go all the way to the c
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Such a small error barely worth even mentioning.isam said:0 -
That would be a serious faux pas, the only name that can acceptably be capitalized in this race is KLOBUCHARkinabalu said:Yes, fascinating race for the Dem Nom. I like Kamala Harris but I'm getting a little concerned about the lack of buzz around her. It's all Mayor Pete, and Run Joe Run! and Bernie the Burn, and of course the man who is quite simply 'Beto' (even to his wife).
Meanwhile my pick has thus far failed to break through. She is referred to in a way that is po-faced and respectful rather than with excitement and affection. The worst sign of all is that she is still called 'Harris' by all and sundry despite being blessed with the very catchy first name of Kamala.
This even runs to on here, I'm disappointed to see. Harris this, Harris that, Harris the other. It's not good enough. So a heartfelt plea from me this morning. Can we move up a gear please on KH? On KAMALA. Let's get this baby rolling!0 -
FPT:
I think there is. I can think of a few things that could invite an instant ban.viewcode said:
Whether Jeremy Corbyn is an anti-Semite is one thing. But @JosiasJessop stated that "he'd probably prefer to be dining with...anti-Semites", which - given Corbyn's past preferences - is fair comment.
[There's a comments policy????]
Something like, and I use these as an example only just to make myself clear:
“I like pineapple on pizza.”
“I don’t care much for Liverpool FC despite being from Liverpool.”
“I might vote [any non-Labour option] in my constituency of Bootle.”
“I find cricket an incredibly boring sport.”
“I don’t understand Sunil’s Star Wars tropes having never watched Star Wars. And when I get on Merseyrail’s 507 class, I don’t get excited. It’s just a train.”
I don’t think ANY of that, of course.0 -
@TheValiant - you missed the annex on AV comments then?
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Yes, O'Rourke versus Kamala. Much better vocab. Cheers.Nigelb said:O’Rourke has gone pretty dark, too - he simply isn’t doing TV at the moment, in favour of ‘meeting the people’. Whether there’s some smart plan underlying this, or it’s just a misguided attempt to replicate his Texas campaign in a national scale, is a open question.
Don’t know about Kamala (there, I said it for you). She has the base (money and support) and the political skills to be a contender, but she needs to break out of the pack by the summer.
The former - 'O'Rourke' - does indeed seem to have gone a bit flat. I saw a quote the other day from someone, said that he's gone from the new Bobby K to being 'the man that says sorry a lot and stands on tables' - which was pretty brutal, I thought.
Still, marathon not a sprint bla bla and I am hoping that Kamala is just conserving energy at this early stage. So long as she is right there as they are rounding the Cutty Sark. If she is then I think she will come through. I find her and Warren the most impressive of the candidates, and I prefer her because she has IMO a better chance of slaying the beast.
EDIT: Oddly, Warren does not need the first name thing. She is better suited by Warren than Elizabeth, and Liz does not work at all. Perhaps because she was (and therefore is and will always be) a Harvard Professor.0 -
The Greens are, on current polling, the main opposition in Germany and should score well in the european elections. They polled just under 11% in 2014 but are hovering just under 20% now.another_richard said:Now if we can get the French government to express similar concerns perhaps the Conservatives will have a rethink on the merits of the backstop:
' It is a dastardly trap, designed to lock freedom-loving Britain into the European Union’s protectionist customs union: that is the argument against the so-called backstop, cited by hardline Brexit advocates as the main reason why they have thrice voted down Theresa May’s deal with the European Union.
But as the dust settles after months of chaos in Westminster, suspicions are growing on the other side of the Channel that the backstop could in fact be the very opposite: a brilliant deception device constructed by crack UK negotiators, which would allow a more reckless British prime minister to undermine the EU’s green and social standards while still keeping access to the European single market. '
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/26/irish-backstop-could-undermine-eu-standards-report-says
They will displace a fair number of the socialist/democratic German bloc in Brussels in May.
We've been so focussed on an election/referendum in the UK that we may be missing the potential for a change in the dynamic on the other side of the table.
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Ah yes of course.edmundintokyo said:That would be a serious faux pas, the only name that can acceptably be capitalized in this race is KLOBUCHAR
And fine by me. I am happy to make do with 'Kamala'.0 -
Often is, but last nights was silence. A bit surprising, at a time where offensive comments from people’s pasts are shone a light on, that the club held the tribute and the black players bowed their headsDavidL said:
I thought the convention these days was for a minute's applause for a life well lived. It also prevents idiots from being disrespectful.isam said:
What did you make of the minutes silence for Tommy Smith last night? Was there talk of it not being observed?TheScreamingEagles said:Since I've been following politics, since circa 1990, every Presidential cycle has seen a brokered convention predicted every time for at least one party, but it is has never happened, however this time I won't be surprised if it happens.
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If you believe those polls frankly you would believe anything.Andrew said:HYUFD said:
Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 45% is actually slightly higher than the 44% Obama had in the April of his third year, the 42% Reagan had in the April of his third year and the 40% Carter had in his third year.Jonathan said:Trump is weak.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
2/3 Of those presidents were re elected
Yougov and ABC have 39%.0 -
Let these polls which are used as opinion shapers keep under valuing Trumps approval, it keeps his odds at great value in the UK Market. Taking easy money off bookies is always very satisfying.Barnesian said:
Trump's weighted average is currently 41%.HYUFD said:
Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 45% is actually slightly higher than the 44% Obama had in the April of his third year, the 42% Reagan had in the April of his third year and the 40% Carter had in his third year.Jonathan said:Trump is weak.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
2/3 Of those presidents were re elected
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
That is worse at this stage of his presidency than Obama, GWB, Clinton, HWB, Ford, Nixon, LBJ and JFK. He equals Reagan and is 1% ahead of Carter. Not great is it? I can't see him doing a Reagan and let others run the presidency for him while he smiles benevolently.
EDIT: And that is in spite of the economy doing well.0 -
I do, but as I believe Scotland should be able to decide on its place in the world I couldn't deny that to England. I might wish you had better quality politicians but again that's an English Pols for English Voters type of thing.Nigelb said:
Fair enough - but spare a thought for us unfortunates south of the border.Theuniondivvie said:
As ever it doesn't really matter what I wish for, the juggernaut of English nationalism has set off of its own volition. I'd rather that wasn't the case but on balance I'd prefer not to be chained behind it. As has been suggested by people brighter than me, it may turn out that only England has the necessary heft to break the Union.Nigelb said:
Given what might replace it, be careful what you wish for.Theuniondivvie said:
What a bargain!Nigelb said:
And the Tory party into the bargain.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI - The ERG and Leavers in general may well have destroyed the Union, big hand clap for them.
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Heidi Allen:
"If you’re an MP with about 30,000 more electorates than you should have because the area is growing so much – and they’re all massive Remainers with 24 PhDs each and have an opinion – then you’re really busy."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/house/house-magazine/103461/heidi-allen-“-fact-people-are-trying-pick0 -
The new boundaries will be apportioned based on the 2020 census. They come into effect for the 2022 elections.Fenman said:
Remember the House boundaries must be redrawn by 2020, with the Democrats in charge of the process.HYUFD said:
No President since Truman has seen his party win back the House after losing it in the midterms, even if they were re electedmacisback said:
The biggest problem they have is they spend too much, really Trump will need to win back the House as well to complete the job he has started. There would be far fewer Bush loyalists to hinder this time around.rcs1000 said:
Donald Trump may will win.macisback said:Trump has been a pleasant surprise how well he has grown into the job. Maybe he had to be the coarse bully to beat Bush and Clinton and the massive machine behind them. Now he sounds very different to the 2016 campaign and the Economic performance of the USA is strong. I expect Trump to win handily whoever he comes up against without having to play dirty this time. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mrs Obama come into the running late, none of the current front runners look winners to me.
But the major reason the economy is so strong is that the government has enacted major fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle.
For this reason, I really hope he wins. Because it's not really very fair to leave someone else with a massive fiscal deficit and a debt-to-gdp at a quarter century high at the end of a decade long economic expansion.
The last one was on the 2010 census for the 2012 electoral cycle.0 -
Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance...then Brexit!
https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/11215459652598865930 -
https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/1122069020750909440Theuniondivvie said:Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance...then Brexit!
https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1121545965259886593
No, there really isn't...0 -
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Human rights workers at Amnesty International are braced for scores of redundancies after the management admitted to a hole in its budget of up to £17m to the end of 2020.
Next week Naidoo is due to unveil a new strategic direction, which he has previously indicated requires treating issues like climate change as core components of the human rights struggle. Sources said it appears he wants to increase the focus on campaigning, rather than traditional research-led human rights investigations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/27/amnesty-international-staff-braced-for-redundancies
So bugger those jailed for their political views, more direct action protests on climate change. Isn't the later what GreenPeace is for?0 -
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:0 -
F1: fastest man in the third sector is Raikkonen. He's having quite a good season so far.0
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I agree that the German Greens will do well and the Social Demorats badly, but I don't think that will change anything relating to Brexit. The two parties are in the broad centre-left spectrum in the European Parliament and commonly vote together. And large as Germany is, a shift of 10% of their MEPs won't do much to the overall numbers.thecommissioner said:
The Greens are, on current polling, the main opposition in Germany and should score well in the european elections. They polled just under 11% in 2014 but are hovering just under 20% now.
They will displace a fair number of the socialist/democratic German bloc in Brussels in May.
We've been so focussed on an election/referendum in the UK that we may be missing the potential for a change in the dynamic on the other side of the table.
There is clearly a rise in nationalist/populist MEPs coming, and that will affect issues like refugees. But again I'm not aware that e.g. Salvini has any particular opinions about Brexit.
Latest German polling for the Euros: CDU/CSU 32% (-3 compared with last time), SocDems 18% (-9), Greens 19% (+8), FDP (pro-business liberals) 7 (+3), Left 6 (-1), AfD 10 (+3).0 -
Why does it undervalue his approval?macisback said:
Let these polls which are used as opinion shapers keep under valuing Trumps approval, it keeps his odds at great value in the UK Market. Taking easy money off bookies is always very satisfying.Barnesian said:
Trump's weighted average is currently 41%.HYUFD said:
Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 45% is actually slightly higher than the 44% Obama had in the April of his third year, the 42% Reagan had in the April of his third year and the 40% Carter had in his third year.Jonathan said:Trump is weak.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
2/3 Of those presidents were re elected
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
That is worse at this stage of his presidency than Obama, GWB, Clinton, HWB, Ford, Nixon, LBJ and JFK. He equals Reagan and is 1% ahead of Carter. Not great is it? I can't see him doing a Reagan and let others run the presidency for him while he smiles benevolently.
EDIT: And that is in spite of the economy doing well.0 -
Populists do have strong views on the Euro. Could be big issues if/when the next downturn hits hard.NickPalmer said:
I agree that the German Greens will do well and the Social Demorats badly, but I don't think that will change anything relating to Brexit. The two parties are in the broad centre-left spectrum in the European Parliament and commonly vote together. And large as Germany is, a shift of 10% of their MEPs won't do much to the overall numbers.thecommissioner said:
The Greens are, on current polling, the main opposition in Germany and should score well in the european elections. They polled just under 11% in 2014 but are hovering just under 20% now.
They will displace a fair number of the socialist/democratic German bloc in Brussels in May.
We've been so focussed on an election/referendum in the UK that we may be missing the potential for a change in the dynamic on the other side of the table.
There is clearly a rise in nationalist/populist MEPs coming, and that will affect issues like refugees. But again I'm not aware that e.g. Salvini has any particular opinions about Brexit.
Latest German polling for the Euros: CDU/CSU 32% (-3 compared with last time), SocDems 18% (-9), Greens 19% (+8), FDP (pro-business liberals) 7 (+3), Left 6 (-1), AfD 10 (+3).0 -
Brokenshire also needs to either apologise to Scruton and reinstate his position, else consider his own. This constant giving in to the mob over slights in language needs to stop - the mob will stop doing it if it doesn’t work.MaxPB said:0 -
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:0 -
LOL, no more than they deserve. Massive reform of the charity sector needed, many are now simply a front for lobbyists and activists.FrancisUrquhart said:Human rights workers at Amnesty International are braced for scores of redundancies after the management admitted to a hole in its budget of up to £17m to the end of 2020.
Next week Naidoo is due to unveil a new strategic direction, which he has previously indicated requires treating issues like climate change as core components of the human rights struggle. Sources said it appears he wants to increase the focus on campaigning, rather than traditional research-led human rights investigations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/27/amnesty-international-staff-braced-for-redundancies
So bugger those jailed for their political views, more direct action protests on climate change. Isn't the later what GreenPeace is for?0 -
At least they've got us talking about it. I can't remember ever discussing anyone's logo as intensively as we've been doingisam said:
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:0 -
So, do I lay my Ayrton on Leclerc at 4.5 from yesterday? In to 1.85/2.0 now.Morris_Dancer said:F1: fastest man in the third sector is Raikkonen. He's having quite a good season so far.
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They must have hired the Toon Army.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:
Or a zebra.0 -
Yeah but I'm afraid that's not an argument. Out 'there' beyond us anoraks it will mean f-all to voters.NickPalmer said:
At least they've got us talking about it. I can't remember ever discussing anyone's logo as intensively as we've been doingisam said:
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:
As they sing on the terraces, 'you're shit and you* know it.'
An exercise in how not to launch a party, if ever there was.
The LibDems got their slogan spot on. 'Stop Brexit' does what it says on the tin.
*CHUCKUPNPTIG, not you Nick0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:
God this is horrible0 -
You wisely steered clear of expressing opinions on Radiohead......TheValiant said:FPT:
I think there is. I can think of a few things that could invite an instant ban.viewcode said:
Whether Jeremy Corbyn is an anti-Semite is one thing. But @JosiasJessop stated that "he'd probably prefer to be dining with...anti-Semites", which - given Corbyn's past preferences - is fair comment.
[There's a comments policy????]
Something like, and I use these as an example only just to make myself clear:
“I like pineapple on pizza.”
“I don’t care much for Liverpool FC despite being from Liverpool.”
“I might vote [any non-Labour option] in my constituency of Bootle.”
“I find cricket an incredibly boring sport.”
“I don’t understand Sunil’s Star Wars tropes having never watched Star Wars. And when I get on Merseyrail’s 507 class, I don’t get excited. It’s just a train.”
I don’t think ANY of that, of course.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, Mercedes' times look sandbaggish. But I still think your bet looks very good. I'd probably (after getting burned a little before) wimp out and hedge. But it's a good bet to have.
Anyway, I'll check the markets then finish off my pre-qualifying tosh.0 -
Hell, I'm not a ChangeUK supporter - they're somewhere bewtween an irrelevance and a distraction. Just trying to be fair - they won't live or die by their logo.Mysticrose said:
Yeah but I'm afraid that's not an argument. Out 'there' beyond us anoraks it will mean f-all to voters.NickPalmer said:
At least they've got us talking about it. I can't remember ever discussing anyone's logo as intensively as we've been doingisam said:
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:
As they sing on the terraces, 'you're shit and you* know it.'
An exercise in how not to launch a party, if ever there was.
The LibDems got their slogan spot on. 'Stop Brexit' does what it says on the tin.
*CHUCKUPNPTIG, not you Nick0 -
Someone PAID for that!Mysticrose said:FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:
God this is horrible0 -
People on here (inc me) talk about things in excruciating detail that almost nobody in the general public give a second thought toNickPalmer said:
At least they've got us talking about it. I can't remember ever discussing anyone's logo as intensively as we've been doingisam said:
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:0 -
Actually I don't agree. Name / logo / slogan / brand are incredibly important for any kind of fresh start up.NickPalmer said:
Hell, I'm not a ChangeUK supporter - they're somewhere bewtween an irrelevance and a distraction. Just trying to be fair - they won't live or die by their logo.Mysticrose said:
Yeah but I'm afraid that's not an argument. Out 'there' beyond us anoraks it will mean f-all to voters.NickPalmer said:
At least they've got us talking about it. I can't remember ever discussing anyone's logo as intensively as we've been doingisam said:
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:
As they sing on the terraces, 'you're shit and you* know it.'
An exercise in how not to launch a party, if ever there was.
The LibDems got their slogan spot on. 'Stop Brexit' does what it says on the tin.
*CHUCKUPNPTIG, not you Nick
Farage, for all his faults, utterly gets that
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I like the TIG logo.
Nice and clean.0 -
Actually, I think changing the independent group could be a winning idea.isam said:
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:0 -
Strength of the wind today, there are going to be some crazy random goals......0
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True; never heard anyone else discussing pineapple on pizza.isam said:
People on here (inc me) talk about things in excruciating detail that almost nobody in the general public give a second thought toNickPalmer said:
At least they've got us talking about it. I can't remember ever discussing anyone's logo as intensively as we've been doingisam said:
Maybe every time they see "Change The Independent Group" they change the font size of The Independent GroupFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:0 -
F1: ha. Was contemplating 13 on Bottas each way to get a top three qualifying result, when the market changed to only being top two, which doesn't appeal nearly as much.0
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F1: pre-qualifying ramble:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/azerbaijan-pre-qualifying-2019.html0 -
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The splinters from all that fence sitting must be killing.Scott_P said:0 -
The fence sitting continues, and the labour voters can grumble but vote for them, leave and remain, as before.Scott_P said:0 -
I see Sandpit’s bet was for pole, not the race win.
I’d be laying now that it’s as short as 1.5 on Betfair. Leclerc ought to get pole, but Baku is unforgiving.0 -
If you had sat 1000 people down in front of a logo of 4 horizontal black and white stripes and asked them what they thought it meant ...
not one single one would have said a political party. Let alone 'change.' Or 'remain.'
Not one.
Not one single one.
Think about that.
Whoever dreamt this up is a total moron.0 -
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The new party line didn’t hold for long, then.Scott_P said:
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Like blood out of a stone frankly.Scott_P said:0 -
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My bet is for the race win. I’m thinking to let it run, just so I can say I backed the future world champion on the day of his first win. Yes, it’s an unforgiving place, a cynic might say that this is the weekend when F1 meets a demolition derby. 1.21 on safety car looks massive value.Nigelb said:I see Sandpit’s bet was for pole, not the race win.
I’d be laying now that it’s as short as 1.5 on Betfair. Leclerc ought to get pole, but Baku is unforgiving.0 -
Fair point - and presumably even if they do drop out, they'll already be on the ballot, so they may end up winning quite a few delegates anyhow...rcs1000 said:Finally, why would Beto or Harris drop out before their home states?
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I think they should have chosen a swastika. That would get them much-needed publicity.OldKingCole said:
Someone PAID for that!Mysticrose said:FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder how much they paid some marketing / PR people for that totally forgetable logo?Scott_P said:
God this is horrible0 -
Wasn’t there a bunch of Northern Labour MPs last week, writing a letter urging the party not to mention a referendum?Scott_P said:0 -
Its perfect. It shows those who want to remain that many many mps will not allow anything other than a referendum, so they have to back up those mps and vote labour or the leadership in theory might not do so. While labour leavers can justify voting labour as policy technically means Brexit is intended.Nigelb said:
Everyone gets to push their position without splitting.0 -
Are logos meant to mean anything? Ideally I suppose but I cannot say the other party ones say much to me. This one is simple and will be easy to remember. It's not great but it is not awful.Mysticrose said:If you had sat 1000 people down in front of a logo of 4 horizontal black and white stripes and asked them what they thought it meant ...
not one single one would have said a political party. Let alone 'change.' Or 'remain.'
Not one.
Not one single one.
Think about that.
Whoever dreamt this up is a total moron.0 -
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Ah. In which case, you’re right.Sandpit said:
My bet is for the race win. I’m thinking to let it run, just so I can say I backed the future world champion on the day of his first win. Yes, it’s an unforgiving place, a cynic might say that this is the weekend when F1 meets a demolition derby. 1.21 on safety car looks massive value.Nigelb said:I see Sandpit’s bet was for pole, not the race win.
I’d be laying now that it’s as short as 1.5 on Betfair. Leclerc ought to get pole, but Baku is unforgiving.
Mercedes look rather better in race trim than in quali, and will have something in hand on the engine front. Leclerc still favourite, though. Unless Ferrari are really stupid.
If it were £1000, I’d lay. Losing £10 wouldn’t spoil my enjoyment of the race...
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This, however, is quite important. Mysterious though it is to me (I use Facebook but never even glance at an ad), FB ads work:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/digital/news/farages-brexit-party-spends-big-on-facebook-ads/0 -
Yes funny, when I see Change party logo I think of desolate wastelands, but the Brexit Party’s brings to mind a sunny day in my favourite parkAlastairMeeks said:
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Harris is Hillary without the warmth, Warren is John Kerry in a skirt, Trump would love to face either of themkinabalu said:
Yes, O'Rourke versus Kamala. Much better vocab. Cheers.Nigelb said:O’Rourke has gone pretty dark, too - he simply isn’t doing TV at the moment, in favour of ‘meeting the people’. Whether there’s some smart plan underlying this, or it’s just a misguided attempt to replicate his Texas campaign in a national scale, is a open question.
Don’t know about Kamala (there, I said it for you). She has the base (money and support) and the political skills to be a contender, but she needs to break out of the pack by the summer.
The former - 'O'Rourke' - does indeed seem to have gone a bit flat. I saw a quote the other day from someone, said that he's gone from the new Bobby K to being 'the man that says sorry a lot and stands on tables' - which was pretty brutal, I thought.
Still, marathon not a sprint bla bla and I am hoping that Kamala is just conserving energy at this early stage. So long as she is right there as they are rounding the Cutty Sark. If she is then I think she will come through. I find her and Warren the most impressive of the candidates, and I prefer her because she has IMO a better chance of slaying the beast.
EDIT: Oddly, Warren does not need the first name thing. She is better suited by Warren than Elizabeth, and Liz does not work at all. Perhaps because she was (and therefore is and will always be) a Harvard Professor.0 -
Exactly!Nigelb said:
Ah. In which case, you’re right.Sandpit said:
My bet is for the race win. I’m thinking to let it run, just so I can say I backed the future world champion on the day of his first win. Yes, it’s an unforgiving place, a cynic might say that this is the weekend when F1 meets a demolition derby. 1.21 on safety car looks massive value.Nigelb said:I see Sandpit’s bet was for pole, not the race win.
I’d be laying now that it’s as short as 1.5 on Betfair. Leclerc ought to get pole, but Baku is unforgiving.
Mercedes look rather better in race trim than in quali, and will have something in hand on the engine front. Leclerc still favourite, though. Unless Ferrari are really stupid.
If it were £1000, I’d lay. Losing £10 wouldn’t spoil my enjoyment of the race...
Lewis 9.4 for pole looking like its worth half a stake, maybe split with Max at 32 which doesn’t represent his Q3 performance. Yes, I’d expect Mercedes to perform better tomorrow, especially in terms of race strategy.0 -
https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1120593284022308866?s=20Sandpit said:
Wasn’t there a bunch of Northern Labour MPs last week, writing a letter urging the party not to mention a referendum?Scott_P said:0 -
There has to be a part in Midsomer Murders when Soubers loses her seat. Epic hammy acting
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1122081939937218560?s=210 -
A logo is obviously less vital than name, slogan and branding ... all of which CHUKTIG have contrived to get wrong.
Any start up needs a top logo. And, with respect, I doubt those commenting below have any professional experience in this area.
https://www.designhill.com/design-blog/us-political-logos-that-can-put-world-best-logo-designs-to-shame/
4 horizontal black and white bars suggests:
- A fence. Message: to keep you out. Privilege. Estate.
- Dull (black and white). It's boring. Inanimate. Lifeless. Turgid. Every other major party has something organic (growing) or moving. This is static and lifeless. Very apt as it happens but the opposite of change.
- Prison. Okay, horizontal not vertical. But these are still bars.
This is the worst political launch in world history0 -
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Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:0 -
I really like it and there aren't many logos I would say that about. Clean distinctive modern and requires no explanation.Mysticrose said:A logo is obviously less vital than name, slogan and branding ... all of which CHUKTIG have contrived to get wrong.
Any start up needs a top logo. And, with respect, I doubt those commenting below have any professional experience in this area.
https://www.designhill.com/design-blog/us-political-logos-that-can-put-world-best-logo-designs-to-shame/
4 horizontal black and white bars suggests:
- A fence. Message: to keep you out. Privilege. Estate.
- Dull (black and white). It's boring. Inanimate. Lifeless. Turgid. Every other major party has something organic (growing) or moving. This is static and lifeless. Very apt as it happens but the opposite of change.
- Prison. Okay, horizontal not vertical. But these are still bars.
This is the worst political launch in world history0 -
What’s your view of the Brexit Party branding?Roger said:
I really like it and there aren't many logos I would say that about. Clean distinctive modern and requires no explanation.Mysticrose said:A logo is obviously less vital than name, slogan and branding ... all of which CHUKTIG have contrived to get wrong.
Any start up needs a top logo. And, with respect, I doubt those commenting below have any professional experience in this area.
https://www.designhill.com/design-blog/us-political-logos-that-can-put-world-best-logo-designs-to-shame/
4 horizontal black and white bars suggests:
- A fence. Message: to keep you out. Privilege. Estate.
- Dull (black and white). It's boring. Inanimate. Lifeless. Turgid. Every other major party has something organic (growing) or moving. This is static and lifeless. Very apt as it happens but the opposite of change.
- Prison. Okay, horizontal not vertical. But these are still bars.
This is the worst political launch in world history0 -
Agreed, for now. Cable having come out so strongly against Brexit yesterday unlike Corbyn has put at risk LD seats in Leave areas such as where I live as the Tories can say 'A Vote for the LDs is a Vote to Stop Brexit and undermine democracy' the Tories cannot do that with Labour yetSandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:0 -
For me the CUK logo looks like the hamburger menu used by many modern mobile apps. Am I supposed to click it to get further settings, like some policies?0
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Any deal they do with May will, by its very nature, not be a bad Tory deal - and so not require any second vote.....FrancisUrquhart said:
The splinters from all that fence sitting must be killing.Scott_P said:
A cheap thing to offer.0 -
It reminds me of the flag of Brittany.Mysticrose said:A logo is obviously less vital than name, slogan and branding ... all of which CHUKTIG have contrived to get wrong.
Any start up needs a top logo. And, with respect, I doubt those commenting below have any professional experience in this area.
https://www.designhill.com/design-blog/us-political-logos-that-can-put-world-best-logo-designs-to-shame/
4 horizontal black and white bars suggests:
- A fence. Message: to keep you out. Privilege. Estate.
- Dull (black and white). It's boring. Inanimate. Lifeless. Turgid. Every other major party has something organic (growing) or moving. This is static and lifeless. Very apt as it happens but the opposite of change.
- Prison. Okay, horizontal not vertical. But these are still bars.
This is the worst political launch in world history0 -
Electronic voting, good idea yes no?
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1122116677196492800?s=19
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I see Hales has been caught drugged up for the second time. No wonder he is so erratic if he is out his tree half the time.0
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I like it too. It is cool and cerebral. Reminds me of Mondrian.TOPPING said:I like the TIG logo.
Nice and clean.
The best logos do not shout. They talk to you subliminally as this one does. It says that the problems we face as a country are best solved by the intellect and by science not by primitive mumbo jumbo. And if the people doing the solving are quite young and have a liking for understated Scandinavian knitwear so much the better.0 -
Also a reminder that Trump out performed polling in states with no audit trail electronic voting and underperformed in states with manual counting.0
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Anyone who works in IT will tell you no, definitely not. Unless they work for a company selling voting machines.Alistair said:Electronic voting, good idea yes no?
ttps://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1122116677196492800?s=19
Paper and pencil, with people counting, works really well in practice.0 -
Assuming always you have adequate security over the ballot boxes once voting is complete.....Sandpit said:
Anyone who works in IT will tell you no, definitely not. Unless they work for a company selling voting machines.Alistair said:Electronic voting, good idea yes no?
ttps://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1122116677196492800?s=19
Paper and pencil, with people counting, works really well in practice.0 -
Is that true? It's a big bit of evidence if statistically valid.Alistair said:Also a reminder that Trump out performed polling in states with no audit trail electronic voting and underperformed in states with manual counting.
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LMAOkinabalu said:
I like it too. It is cool and cerebral. Reminds me of Mondrian.TOPPING said:I like the TIG logo.
Nice and clean.
The best logos do not shout. They talk to you subliminally as this one does. It says that the problems we face as a country are best solved by the intellect and by science not by primitive mumbo jumbo. And if the people doing the solving are quite young and have a liking for understated Scandinavian knitwear so much the better.
For a start the best logos in politics do shout, in the sense that they need to match the brand.
This, like your message, is meaningless metropolitan elitist middle class management bs.
Sorry, don't mean to go all Ad hominem on you but your message is a zillion miles away from ordinary voters.
Farage gets it. You don't.0 -
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .
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Yes, which is why (in the U.K.) they are sealed at the start of the day, taken from the polling station to the count with the police escorting them, and there’s never one person in sole possession of a ballot box until it’s opened in front of representatives of the candidates.MarqueeMark said:
Assuming always you have adequate security over the ballot boxes once voting is complete.....Sandpit said:
Anyone who works in IT will tell you no, definitely not. Unless they work for a company selling voting machines.Alistair said:Electronic voting, good idea yes no?
ttps://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1122116677196492800?s=19
Paper and pencil, with people counting, works really well in practice.
The whole process around US elections sucks, there’s way too much political interference and only a handful of states have anything like the Electoral Commission to oversee voting.0 -
I see three milkmen boffing my mum. And blood, so much blood...isam said:
Yes funny, when I see Change party logo I think of desolate wastelands, but the Brexit Party’s brings to mind a sunny day in my favourite parkAlastairMeeks said:
Ahem.
OK, as you were, nothing to see here...
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Lidl bit of numerology.
Celtic player in no. 5 jersey (Billy McNeill's number) just put Celtic 1 up in the 67th minute.0 -
Disagree. Outside London and a few university towns, I don’t think Brexit is a salient issue for Labour voters.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .0 -
Someone’s going to get unexpectedly knocked out in Q1 here, way too many yellow flags.0
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If that’s the case why annoy the large majority of the Labour vote by not backing a second vote .Sandpit said:
Disagree. Outside London and a few university towns, I don’t think Brexit is a salient issue for Labour voters.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .0 -
How many bets have been won and lost over the past ten years, preceded by the phrase "I don't think the EU is a salient issue..."?Sandpit said:
Disagree. Outside London and a few university towns, I don’t think Brexit is a salient issue for Labour voters.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .
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Let me check.FrancisUrquhart said:For me the CUK logo looks like the hamburger menu used by many modern mobile apps. Am I supposed to click it to get further settings, like some policies?
[clicks repeatedly on logo]
No.0 -
I don't envy Corbyn's position here. He can probably keep most of those Labour Leavers, but alienating even a few could wreck his chances of winning the next General Election. He can afford to lose more Labour remainers in electoral terms. But he is giving his enemies in the party a boost by opposing a majority view that is strongly held. So he could get over the line in an election only to find that his tradition in the party gets ousted by another one.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .
Fiendishly difficult.0 -
Farage does get it but that does not mean he should be copied regardless.Mysticrose said:LMAO
For a start the best logos in politics do shout, in the sense that they need to match the brand.
This, like your message, is meaningless metropolitan elitist middle class management bs.
Sorry, don't mean to go all Ad hominem on you but your message is a zillion miles away from ordinary voters.
Farage gets it. You don't.
It's horses for courses. Or target markets to be precise. Farage's is the oiks. TIG's is the precious classes.
They need to be approached differently.0 -
Good point. Any successful strategy will put off a lot of people. I wonder how many middle class people in the south east were irritated by the Tories pursuit of the northern working class in 2017? They certainly voted Labour down here in numbers they haven't done since the fifties.kinabalu said:
Farage does get it but that does not mean he should be copied regardless.Mysticrose said:LMAO
For a start the best logos in politics do shout, in the sense that they need to match the brand.
This, like your message, is meaningless metropolitan elitist middle class management bs.
Sorry, don't mean to go all Ad hominem on you but your message is a zillion miles away from ordinary voters.
Farage gets it. You don't.
It's horses for courses. Or target markets to be precise. Farage's is the oiks. TIG's is the precious classes.
They need to be approached differently.0 -
Have you tried reloading the page? What about turning your device off and on again?viewcode said:
Let me check.FrancisUrquhart said:For me the CUK logo looks like the hamburger menu used by many modern mobile apps. Am I supposed to click it to get further settings, like some policies?
[clicks repeatedly on logo]
No.0 -
Recidivist said:
I don't envy Corbyn's position here. He can probably keep most of those Labour Leavers, but alienating even a few could wreck his chances of winning the next General Election. He can afford to lose more Labour remainers in electoral terms. But he is giving his enemies in the party a boost by opposing a majority view that is strongly held. So he could get over the line in an election only to find that his tradition in the party gets ousted by another one.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .
Fiendishly difficult.
It's not that it's 'only' 25%. It's that the sort of places those 25% inhabit are more likely to be the marginal, unfashionable Northern/Midlands/small town seats.
The 75% of Lab Remainers are somewhat concentrated in the ultra-safe Metropolitan/inner urban seats, like Corbyn's own. It's probably more like a 95-5 split there. But that's irrelevant when there are lots of Labour leavers in Don Valley, Dewsbury etc.
He can afford to alienate a few Lab Remainers far more readily than a few Lab Leavers.0
