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The word fascist is becoming meaningless these days.Roger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
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Those BBC audiences have been infiltrated by various strands of political thought for quite some time. It was only a matter of time before the Neo-Nazis were successful.Roger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
No Deal/Remain, don't you mean?RobD said:
Deal/No Deal, don't you mean? We already know the answer to Leave/Remain.williamglenn said:
No they're not. If we make a decision to hold a Deal/Remain referendum it would justify a further extension.No_Offence_Alan said:Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.
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VONC MayNo_Offence_Alan said:
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.Mysticrose said:
No that's the whole point. They DON'T need to do anything necessarily about campaigning for Remain. What they need, we need, is a clear commitment to a confirmatory referendum, a people's vote.Cyclefree said:
Only if Labour say, unambiguously, that Remain will be a choice on the ballot paper.Mysticrose said:
I don't like to say that something's rubbish but that is of the unadulterated type.Harris_Tweed said:
It's too late for Labour to win back the votes of hardcore remainers in this election,Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think the point of decision has been reached. What happens if they don't make a decision now?OblitusSumMe said:
The Labour vote share has suffered in polls since Brexit day passed. Why is that?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, I'm not so sure. Weasel words have sufficed so far. Admittedly there's some drifting away from Labour as a result of this, but it's manageable and I don't see why it can't remain so - after all, Labour MEPs will not be the ones who have to choose to call a referendum or not, so why shouldn't weasel words still suffice?
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
The point of decision has been reached for Labour.
Conversely, if they do decide to go for a referendum for the purposes of the Euro elections, then it would be impossible for them not to vote for one in the Commons, but the leadership cabal seems very determined not to do so (at least for now).
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
That's all Remainers at the moment can realistically hope to get. And it's fine. Because we're confident that this time we will win.
Alastair Campbell put it brilliantly a little earlier today:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1121809760368635904
GE June
PV October0 -
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
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Whom do you expect to win the GE?Barnesian said:
VONC MayNo_Offence_Alan said:
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.Mysticrose said:
No that's the whole point. They DON'T need to do anything necessarily about campaigning for Remain. What they need, we need, is a clear commitment to a confirmatory referendum, a people's vote.Cyclefree said:
Only if Labour say, unambiguously, that Remain will be a choice on the ballot paper.Mysticrose said:
I don't like to say that something's rubbish but that is of the unadulterated type.Harris_Tweed said:
It's too late for Labour to win back the votes of hardcore remainers in this election,Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think the point of decision has been reached. What happens if they don't make a decision now?OblitusSumMe said:
The Labour vote share has suffered in polls since Brexit day passed. Why is that?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, I'm not so sure. Weasel words have sufficed so far. Admittedly there's some drifting away from Labour as a result of this, but it's manageable and I don't see why it can't remain so - after all, Labour MEPs will not be the ones who have to choose to call a referendum or not, so why shouldn't weasel words still suffice?
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
The point of decision has been reached for Labour.
Conversely, if they do decide to go for a referendum for the purposes of the Euro elections, then it would be impossible for them not to vote for one in the Commons, but the leadership cabal seems very determined not to do so (at least for now).
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
That's all Remainers at the moment can realistically hope to get. And it's fine. Because we're confident that this time we will win.
Alastair Campbell put it brilliantly a little earlier today:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1121809760368635904
GE June
PV October0 -
58% of 2015 Tories voted Leave, 65% of 2017 Tories voted Leave, so yes, I am afraid the Tories base is Brexit supporters.The_Taxman said:
You make the mistake of thinking that the Tories base is Brexit supporters and usually cite opinion polls that back this up. I don't agree with you. Some people who voted for Brexit, then, for one election backed the Tories in 2017. They are fickle voters who cannot be relied upon. What the Tories have done is take people like me who vote for them on economic grounds and philosophical reasons for granted. I know many people who voted Tory in 2017 and for their lifetime before that who will not entertain them again if they continue with this folly called Brexit. The only people who have left the Tories thus far in Westminster are the moderates, the irony of the Brexit supporting media is they weaken their argument by getting Tories to back the Brexit party as everything has consequences in politics and people like you don't understand it as a protest but think it is the emergence of a new trend....HYUFD said:
As 4 times election winner John Howard said the most imynoneoftheabove said:
Listen to yourself, the vast majority of the country are not die hard either way on Brexit (let alone liberal! or left!), even if they were it would be important to persuade them.HYUFD said:
The liberal diehard Remainer left will never be persuaded, forget them, unite the right to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexitnoneoftheabove said:
What happened to the art of persuasion?HYUFD said:
Yes he was articulate and e had to say proof of thatFoxy said:
Do you really think Rhys Davis came over well last night?HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the atgeist
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1121567390284775424?s=19
Voters like you might improve the Tories chances of winning a majority slightly but without Leavers the Tories will not only have zero chance of winning a majority but will probably not even be the main party of opposition to Labour, instead they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party
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Suspect the problem the LibDems will face in a GE is that their seats are concentrated in wealthier, wet Tory bastions like Bath and Bournemouth. When push comes to shove, those voters' fear of Corbyn and what it will do to their wealth will outweigh issues such as Brexit, so I would expect them to hold their noses and vote Conservative.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
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Minority Labour with PV probably in Labour manifesto. Labour dependent on C&S from SNP/LD who will insist on PV anyway.Cyclefree said:
Whom do you expect to win the GE?Barnesian said:
VONC MayNo_Offence_Alan said:
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.Mysticrose said:
No that's the whole point. They DON'T need to do anything necessarily about campaigning for Remain. What they need, we need, is a clear commitment to a confirmatory referendum, a people's vote.Cyclefree said:
Only if Labour say, unambiguously, that Remain will be a choice on the ballot paper.Mysticrose said:
I don't like to say that something's rubbish but that is of the unadulterated type.Harris_Tweed said:
It's too late for Labour to win back the votes of hardcore remainers in this election,Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think the point of decision has been reached. What happens if they don't make a decision now?OblitusSumMe said:
The Labour vote share has suffered in polls since Brexit day passed. Why is that?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, I'm not so sure. Weasel words have sufficed so far. Admittedly there's some drifting away from Labour as a result of this, but it's manageable and I don't see why it can't remain so - after all, Labour MEPs will not be the ones who have to choose to call a referendum or not, so why shouldn't weasel words still suffice?
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
The point of decision has been reached for Labour.
Conversely, if they do decide to go for a referendum for the purposes of the Euro elections, then it would be impossible for them not to vote for one in the Commons, but the leadership cabal seems very determined not to do so (at least for now).
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
That's all Remainers at the moment can realistically hope to get. And it's fine. Because we're confident that this time we will win.
Alastair Campbell put it brilliantly a little earlier today:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1121809760368635904
GE June
PV October0 -
Is that long enough for Parliament to put the result of the PV into effect?Foxy said:
Though for a #peoplesvote the EU27 would extend for a further 6 months.No_Offence_Alan said:
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.Mysticrose said:
No that's the whole point. They DON'T need to do anything necessarily about campaigning for Remain. What they need, we need, is a clear commitment to a confirmatory referendum, a people's vote.Cyclefree said:
Only if Labour say, unambiguously, that Remain will be a choice on the ballot paper.Mysticrose said:
I don't like to say that something's rubbish but that is of the unadulterated type.Harris_Tweed said:
It's too late for Labour to win back the votes of hardcore remainers in this election,Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think the point of decision has been reached. What happens if they don't make a decision now?OblitusSumMe said:
The Labour vote share has suffered in polls since Brexit day passed. Why is that?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, I'm not so sure. Weasel words have sufficed so far. Admittedly there's some drifting away from Labour as a result of this, but it's manageable and I don't see why it can't remain so - after all, Labour MEPs will not be the ones who have to choose to call a referendum or not, so why shouldn't weasel words still suffice?
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
I tend to as everyone doubts whether Labour agrees with them.
The point of decision has been reached for Labour.
Conversely, if they do decide to go for a referendum for the purposes of the Euro elections, then it would be impossible for them not to vote for one in the Commons, but the leadership cabal seems very determined not to do so (at least for now).
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
That's all Remainers at the moment can realistically hope to get. And it's fine. Because we're confident that this time we will win.
Alastair Campbell put it brilliantly a little earlier today:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/11218097603686359040 -
Calling Leavers Nazis will not help your causeRoger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
Are the 35% of 2017 Remain Tory voters no longer core, and therefore diposeable?HYUFD said:
58% of 2015 Tories voted Leave, 65% of 2017 Tories voted Leave, so yes, I am afraid the Tories base is Brexit supporters.The_Taxman said:
You make the mistake of thinking that the Tories base is Brexit supporters and usually cite opinion polls that back this up. I don't agree with you. Some people who voted for Brexit, then, for one election backed the Tories in 2017. They are fickle voters who cannot be relied upon. What the Tories have done is take people like me who vote for them on economic grounds and philosophical reasons for granted. I know many people who voted Tory in 2017 and for their lifetime before that who will not entertain them again if they continue with this folly called Brexit. The only people who have left the Tories thus far in Westminster are the moderates, the irony of the Brexit supporting media is they weaken their argument by getting Tories to back the Brexit party as everything has consequences in politics and people like you don't understand it as a protest but think it is the emergence of a new trend....HYUFD said:
As 4 times election winner John Howard said the most imynoneoftheabove said:
Listen to yourself, the vast majority of the country are not die hard either way on Brexit (let alone liberal! or left!), even if they were it would be important to persuade them.HYUFD said:
The liberal diehard Remainer left will never be persuaded, forget them, unite the right to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexitnoneoftheabove said:
What happened to the art of persuasion?HYUFD said:
Yes he was articulate and e had to say proof of thatFoxy said:
Do you really think Rhys Davis came over well last night?HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the atgeist
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1121567390284775424?s=19
Voters like you might improve the Tories chances of winning a majority slightly but without Leavers the Tories will not only have zero chance of winning a majority but will probably not even be the main party of opposition to Labour, instead they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party
You always seen to be fighting the last war, and that not very effectively.0 -
So Lab and SNP government but Corbyn still well short of a majority even nowBarnesian said:
FWIW The latest EMA using the last three polls plus the Scottish Westminster one have the Tories on 30.1%, Labour on 33.1%.HYUFD said:
Labour and LDs at 2015 levels, Tories below 1997 levels, all the momentum with the Brexit Party on 14%Foxy said:
Seats:
Con 264
Lab 293
LD/CHUK 28
Brexit/UKIP 1(Thurrock)
Green 1
PC 3
SNP 41
NI 18
Lab minority government. 33 short of overall majority.0 -
Yes, because ratifying the deal or revoking Article 50 can be done more or less immediately.No_Offence_Alan said:
Is that long enough for Parliament to put the result of the PV into effect?Foxy said:
Though for a #peoplesvote the EU27 would extend for a further 6 months.0 -
If this atomisation of UK politics can carry on for a while, with at least two hung parliaments in a row, we might finally get PR for Westminster elections. That's my priority and hope, anyway.Barnesian said:
FWIW The latest EMA using the last three polls plus the Scottish Westminster one have the Tories on 30.1%, Labour on 33.1%.HYUFD said:
Labour and LDs at 2015 levels, Tories below 1997 levels, all the momentum with the Brexit Party on 14%Foxy said:
Seats:
Con 264
Lab 293
LD/CHUK 28
Brexit/UKIP 1(Thurrock)
Green 1
PC 3
SNP 41
NI 18
Lab minority government. 33 short of overall majority.0 -
What do you think will happen in Winchester next week?AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
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Can it? I thought there was a bunch of legislation that needed to be passed for the WA to be ratified?williamglenn said:
Yes, because ratifying the deal or revoking Article 50 can be done more or less immediately.No_Offence_Alan said:
Is that long enough for Parliament to put the result of the PV into effect?Foxy said:
Though for a #peoplesvote the EU27 would extend for a further 6 months.0 -
Not all Leavers are fascists, but all fascists seem to be Leavers. I accept that it is a minority.HYUFD said:
Calling Leavers Nazis will not help your causeRoger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
If they vote LD they get two wins:TheKitchenCabinet said:
Suspect the problem the LibDems will face in a GE is that their seats are concentrated in wealthier, wet Tory bastions like Bath and Bournemouth. When push comes to shove, those voters' fear of Corbyn and what it will do to their wealth will outweigh issues such as Brexit, so I would expect them to hold their noses and vote Conservative.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
1) LD will control Labour excesses with C&S
2) LD will ensure Remain.0 -
A very, very tiny minority.Foxy said:
Not all Leavers are fascists, but all fascists seem to be Leavers. I accept that it is a minority.HYUFD said:
Calling Leavers Nazis will not help your causeRoger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
On the other hand some allowance needs to be made for the likely house effect of Yougov - which - for whatever reason - has been recording lower Labour poll ratings for the last year. Other pollsters have had Labour as high as 41%.MarqueeMark said:
Labour on 30% is the really interesting number on that list. What do they have to do to get even 5% back - without pissing off another 5%? Meanwhile, the Tories potentially have 14% to entice back from Brexit Party.....although, admittedly, the path to doing so is not exactly well illuminated.HYUFD said:0 -
*WhoCyclefree said:
Whom do you expect to win the GE?Barnesian said:
VONC MayNo_Offence_Alan said:
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.Mysticrose said:
No that's the whole point. They DON'T need to do anything necessarily about campaigning for Remain. What they need, we need, is a clear commitment to a confirmatory referendum, a people's vote.Cyclefree said:
Only if Labour say, unambiguously, that Remain will be a choice on the ballot paper.Mysticrose said:
I don't like to say that something's rubbish but that is of the unadulterated type.Harris_Tweed said:
It's too late for Labour to win back the votes of hardcore remainers in this election,Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think the point of decision has been reached. What happens if they don't make a decision now?OblitusSumMe said:
The Labour vote share has suffered in polls since Brexit day passed. Why is that?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, I'm not so sure. Weasel words have sufficed so far. Admittedly there's some drifting away from Labour as a result of this, but it's manageable and I don't see why it can't remain so - after all, Labour MEPs will not be the ones who have to choose to call a referendum or not, so why shouldn't weasel words still suffice?
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
The point of decision has been reached for Labour.
Conversely, if they do decide to go for a referendum for the purposes of the Euro elections, then it would be impossible for them not to vote for one in the Commons, but the leadership cabal seems very determined not to do so (at least for now).
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
That's all Remainers at the moment can realistically hope to get. And it's fine. Because we're confident that this time we will win.
Alastair Campbell put it brilliantly a little earlier today:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1121809760368635904
GE June
PV October0 -
That is a plausible scenario. I don't think the LD and SNP would have to twist Labour's arm very hard at all.Barnesian said:
Minority Labour with PV probably in Labour manifesto. Labour dependent on C&S from SNP/LD who will insist on PV anyway.Cyclefree said:
Whom do you expect to win the GE?Barnesian said:
VONC MayNo_Offence_Alan said:
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.Mysticrose said:
No that's the whole point. They DON'T need to do anything necessarily about campaigning for Remain. What they need, we need, is a clear commitment to a confirmatory referendum, a people's vote.Cyclefree said:
Only if Labour say, unambiguously, that Remain will be a choice on the ballot paper.Mysticrose said:
I don't like to say that something's rubbish but that is of the unadulterated type.Harris_Tweed said:
It's too late for Labour to win back the votes of hardcore remainers in this election,Richard_Nabavi said:
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.OblitusSumMe said:
The Labour vote share has suffered in polls since Brexit day passed. Why is that?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, I'm not so sure. Weasel words have sufficed so far. Admittedly there's some drifting away from Labour as a result of this, but it's manageable and I don't see why it can't remain so - after all, Labour MEPs will not be the ones who have to choose to call a referendum or not, so why shouldn't weasel words still suffice?
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
The point of decision has been reached for
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
That's all Remainers at the moment can realistically hope to get. And it's fine. Because we're confident that this time we will win.
Alastair Campbell put it brilliantly a little earlier today:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1121809760368635904
GE June
PV October0 -
It will take 15 minutes for the new PM to revoke A50 by email.No_Offence_Alan said:
Is that long enough for Parliament to put the result of the PV into effect?Foxy said:
Though for a #peoplesvote the EU27 would extend for a further 6 months.No_Offence_Alan said:
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that there isn't time for a confirmatory vote/people's vote/second referendum before October 31st.Mysticrose said:
No that's the whole point. They DON'T need to do anything necessarily about campaigning for Remain. What they need, we need, is a clear commitment to a confirmatory referendum, a people's vote.Cyclefree said:
Only if Labour say, unambiguously, that Remain will be a choice on the ballot paper.Mysticrose said:
I don't like to say that something's rubbish but that is of the unadulterated type.Harris_Tweed said:
It's too late for Labour to win back the votes of hardcore remainers in this election,Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think the point of decision has been reached. What happens if they don't make a decision now? .OblitusSumMe said:
The Labour vote share has suffered in polls since Brexit day passed. Why is that?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, I'm not so sure. Weasel words have sufficed so far. Admittedly there's some drifting away from Labour as a result of this, but it's manageable and I don't see why it can't remain so - after all, Labour MEPs will not be the ones who have to choose to call a referendum or not, so why shouldn't weasel words still suffice?
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
I tend to as everyone doubts whether Labour agrees with them.
The point of decision has been reached for Labour.
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
That's all Remainers at the moment can realistically hope to get. And it's fine. Because we're confident that this time we will win.
Alastair Campbell put it brilliantly a little earlier today:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/11218097603686359040 -
YepHYUFD said:
So Lab and SNP government but Corbyn still well short of a majority even nowBarnesian said:
FWIW The latest EMA using the last three polls plus the Scottish Westminster one have the Tories on 30.1%, Labour on 33.1%.HYUFD said:
Labour and LDs at 2015 levels, Tories below 1997 levels, all the momentum with the Brexit Party on 14%Foxy said:
Seats:
Con 264
Lab 293
LD/CHUK 28
Brexit/UKIP 1(Thurrock)
Green 1
PC 3
SNP 41
NI 18
Lab minority government. 33 short of overall majority.0 -
I wish that were trueRobD said:
A very, very tiny minority.Foxy said:
Not all Leavers are fascists, but all fascists seem to be Leavers. I accept that it is a minority.HYUFD said:
Calling Leavers Nazis will not help your causeRoger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
I said swing. The 12% slump in Tory support in the opinion polls is effectively a 6% swing to the Lib Dems, revival or no revival.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
And Hampshire isn't in the South West.0 -
Of course not but even losing them all to CUK or the LDs is not an extinction event (they are unlikely to vote for Corbyn), most Tory voters would still stay in the party, losing 58% or 65% of Tory voters (that being the percentage of Tories who are Leavers) though would be an extinction event with the Tories losing most of their voters to the Brexit Party and no longer the main party of the right.Foxy said:
Are the 35% of 2017 Remain Tory voters no longer core, and therefore diposeable?HYUFD said:
58% of 2015 Tories voted Leave, 65% of 2017 Tories voted Leave, so yes, I am afraid the Tories base is Brexit supporters.The_Taxman said:
You make the mistake of thinking that the Tories base is Brexit supporters and usually cite opinion polls that back this up. I don't agree with you. Some people who vote of a new trend....HYUFD said:
As 4 times election winner John Howard said the most imynoneoftheabove said:
Listen to yourself, the vast majority of the country are not die hard either way on Brexit (let alone liberal! or left!), even if they were it would be important to persuade them.HYUFD said:
The liberal diehard Remainer left will never be persuaded, forget them, unite the right to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexitnoneoftheabove said:
What happened to the art of persuasion?HYUFD said:
Yes he was articulate and e had to say proof of thatFoxy said:
Do you really think Rhys Davis came over well last night?HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the atgeist
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1121567390284775424?s=19
Voters like you might improve the Tories chances of winning a majority slightly but without Leavers the Tories will not only have zero chance of winning a majority but will probably not even be the main party of opposition to Labour, instead they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party
You always seen to be fighting the last war, and that not very effectively.
In that event there would be no more wars for the party to fight and win unless it merged with Farage and co0 -
With a public mandate behind it it should sail through parliament.RobD said:
Can it? I thought there was a bunch of legislation that needed to be passed for the WA to be ratified?williamglenn said:
Yes, because ratifying the deal or revoking Article 50 can be done more or less immediately.No_Offence_Alan said:
Is that long enough for Parliament to put the result of the PV into effect?Foxy said:
Though for a #peoplesvote the EU27 would extend for a further 6 months.0 -
If this goes to term we'll have had a hung Parliament for 10 out of 12 years already. There is no sign of a majority government in any early election.Dadge said:
If this atomisation of UK politics can carry on for a while, with at least two hung parliaments in a row, we might finally get PR for Westminster elections. That's my priority and hope, anyway.Barnesian said:
FWIW The latest EMA using the last three polls plus the Scottish Westminster one have the Tories on 30.1%, Labour on 33.1%.HYUFD said:
Labour and LDs at 2015 levels, Tories below 1997 levels, all the momentum with the Brexit Party on 14%Foxy said:
Seats:
Con 264
Lab 293
LD/CHUK 28
Brexit/UKIP 1(Thurrock)
Green 1
PC 3
SNP 41
NI 18
Lab minority government. 33 short of overall majority.
Which rather kicks away one of the major arguments for FPTP, that it produces stable, majority administrations able to implement their manifesto.0 -
Winchester voted Remain but Steve Brine looked fairly secure in 2017. One or two wards might change hands but if there is a major change I’d be surprised. LD’s haven’t recovered there since Oaten’s day.nichomar said:
What do you think will happen in Winchester next week?AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
0 -
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).0 -
The first point is a bit of a myth - quite a few polls were pointing to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament by the final week of the campaign.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
0 -
How does that invalidate my point? Labour started out a long way behind and picked up momentum during the campaign. I didn't say the final result was a surprise.justin124 said:
The first point is a bit of a myth - quite a few polls were pointing to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament by the final week of the campaign.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
0 -
Not sure that will do it. Remain is nice but, if Corbyn is coming for your house and your kids' private education, it is less of a priority. And I don't think people will trust the LDs to rein in Labour.Barnesian said:
If they vote LD they get two wins:TheKitchenCabinet said:
Suspect the problem the LibDems will face in a GE is that their seats are concentrated in wealthier, wet Tory bastions like Bath and Bournemouth. When push comes to shove, those voters' fear of Corbyn and what it will do to their wealth will outweigh issues such as Brexit, so I would expect them to hold their noses and vote Conservative.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
1) LD will control Labour excesses with C&S
2) LD will ensure Remain.0 -
Are you in the Ampfield near Romsey? (I know it well, my parents live nearby).Dadge said:
I said swing. The 12% slump in Tory support in the opinion polls is effectively a 6% swing to the Lib Dems, revival or no revival.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
And Hampshire isn't in the South West.
I thought that LD gains in the area pretty likely locally. Winchester voted Remain as I recall, and has quite an LD history.0 -
Touchy. I was talking about areas where LibDems have been traditionally strong and should be again if they are to see an upswing. Don’t see it here. As it happens, i know Devon quite well and don’t see it there either with the possible exception of Tiverton and Honiton. Not sure about Cornwall.Dadge said:
I said swing. The 12% slump in Tory support in the opinion polls is effectively a 6% swing to the Lib Dems, revival or no revival.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
And Hampshire isn't in the South West.0 -
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.0 -
It's worse than that; Brokenshire's ingrowing twattery deserves a Blue Plaque, and a veterinary intervention with a captive bolt for the sake of the public.geoffw said:re Scruton, James Wokenshire should consider his position.
He was clueless at NI, and he is either boneheaded or a liar at Housing.
One week ago he declared that "Private Rental is the fastest growing tenure" on Conhome. The national housing statistics published by his department whilst he has been the Minister showed that the PRS declined by 160k units in the year 2017-18. And there's no reason why the decline should stop.
I'll leave aside the Dog's Breakfast that is the Tenant Fees' Bill. He has managed to make it far more difficult to do simple things like manage the differences if T has a dog.
I've been doing all the things they rave about for Ts for years .. no fees whatsoever, three year no-increase clauses, little or no rent increase during a tenancy etc. Now withdrawn due to the unstable regulatory environment + extra unnecessary imposed risk. Brokenshire deserves to dangle from the Holborn Bars.
As thick and as gormless as Corbyn.0 -
Tories have so may problems straddling the gap between older socially conservative economic nationalists and free trading international bystanders who want to pay next to no tax.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
Globalisation is irreversible. It is neither good or bad, it is like atomic energy, very much up to humans to use it as a tool for good or bad.0 -
Good analysis.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).0 -
Fair enough - but the result showed the Tories to be nowhere near a landslide , and polls were suggesting that a net loss of Tory seats was quite likely 10 days before Polling Day.williamglenn said:
How does that invalidate my point? Labour started out a long way behind and picked up momentum during the campaign. I didn't say the final result was a surprise.justin124 said:
The first point is a bit of a myth - quite a few polls were pointing to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament by the final week of the campaign.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
0 -
I don't think Farage would merge with the Tories, he would want to supplant them. I should give up on translating political events in other countries and thinking they will happen here.HYUFD said:
Of course not but even losing them all to CUK or the LDs is not an extinction event (they are unlikely to vote for Corbyn), most Tory voters would still stay in the party, losing 58% or 65% of Tory voters (that being the percentage of Tories who are Leavers) though would be an extinction event with the Tories losing most of their voters to the Brexit Party and no longer the main party of the right.Foxy said:
Are the 35% of 2017 Remain Tory voters no longer core, and therefore diposeable?HYUFD said:
58% of 2015 Tories voted Leave, 65% of 2017 Tories voted Leave, so yes, I am afraid the Tories base is Brexit supporters.The_Taxman said:
You make the mistake of thinking that the Tories base is Brexit supporters and usually cite opinion polls that back this up. I don't agree with you. Some people who vote of a new trend....HYUFD said:
As 4 times election winner John Howard said the most imynoneoftheabove said:HYUFD said:
The liberal diehard Remainer left will never be persuaded, forget them, unite the right to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexitnoneoftheabove said:
What happened to the art of persuasion?HYUFD said:
Yes he was articulate and e had to say proof of thatFoxy said:
Do you really think Rhys Davis came over well last night?HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the atgeist
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1121567390284775424?s=19
Voters like you might improve the Tories chances of winning a majority slightly but without Leavers the Tories will not only have zero chance of winning a majority but will probably not even be the main party of opposition to Labour, instead they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party
You always seen to be fighting the last war, and that not very effectively.
In that event there would be no more wars for the party to fight and win unless it merged with Farage and co0 -
Bolsanoro in Brazil, Modi in India, Putin in Russia have all won being nationalists and Salvini now leads in Italy on a similar nationalist platformThe_Taxman said:
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.0 -
I hope your parents are well and happy. We’ve been here 14 years and been very happy here. It’s a nice part of the world. Winchester did vote Remain but Steve Brine looked fairly secure in 2017. There is no sign, that I can see, of a LD revival in Eastleigh which was Huhne’s old constituency. My constituency has Nokes, the useless Immigration Minister, as an MP and was LD until 2010. She has an 18,000 majority now. That’s not going to get overturned in a hurry.Foxy said:
Are you in the Ampfield near Romsey? (I know it well, my parents live nearby).Dadge said:
I said swing. The 12% slump in Tory support in the opinion polls is effectively a 6% swing to the Lib Dems, revival or no revival.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Locals, and carry some momentum to the Euros, but be thwarted somewhat by the Tiggers splitting off some of their vote. If there's a general election this year, and the Lib Dems have their new leader in place, I expect them to get back to around 30 MPs - there's been a marked swing back to them in the South West, for example.AmpfieldAndy said:
.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
And Hampshire isn't in the South West.
I thought that LD gains in the area pretty likely locally. Winchester voted Remain as I recall, and has quite an LD history.0 -
Agreed, but that's not what I'm talking about. At the start of the campaign May had a huge lead, was predicted to get a huge landslide and framed the choice as "me or Jeremy Corbyn" which helped Corbyn consolidate most of the rest of the vote.justin124 said:
Fair enough - but the result showed the Tories to be nowhere near a landslide , and polls were suggesting that a net loss of Tory seats was quite likely 10 days before Polling Day.williamglenn said:
How does that invalidate my point? Labour started out a long way behind and picked up momentum during the campaign. I didn't say the final result was a surprise.justin124 said:
The first point is a bit of a myth - quite a few polls were pointing to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament by the final week of the campaign.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/opinium-observer-poll-conservatives-way-ahead-of-labour0 -
Most pollsters now have Labour nowhere near 41%.justin124 said:
On the other hand some allowance needs to be made for the likely house effect of Yougov - which - for whatever reason - has been recording lower Labour poll ratings for the last year. Other pollsters have had Labour as high as 41%.MarqueeMark said:
Labour on 30% is the really interesting number on that list. What do they have to do to get even 5% back - without pissing off another 5%? Meanwhile, the Tories potentially have 14% to entice back from Brexit Party.....although, admittedly, the path to doing so is not exactly well illuminated.HYUFD said:
Nowhere.0 -
Yes, they live in Romsey, near the Abbey.AmpfieldAndy said:
I hope your parents are well and happy. We’ve been here 14 years and been very happy here. It’s a nice part of the world. Winchester did vote Remain but Steve Brine looked fairly secure in 2017. There is no sign, that I can see, of a LD revival in Eastleigh which was Huhne’s old constituency. My constituency has Nokes, the useless Immigration Minister, as an MP and was LD until 2010. She has an 18,000 majority now. That’s not going to get overturned in a hurry.Foxy said:
Are you in the Ampfield near Romsey? (I know it well, my parents live nearby).Dadge said:
I said swing. The 12% slump in Tory support in the opinion polls is effectively a 6% swing to the Lib Dems, revival or no revival.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Loe.AmpfieldAndy said:
.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
And Hampshire isn't in the South West.
I thought that LD gains in the area pretty likely locally. Winchester voted Remain as I recall, and has quite an LD history.
I was thinking more of LD gains in the Locals. My folks share your opinion of Nokes!0 -
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:0 -
IMO there are many working-class Tories. Ex-MPs John Major, Ken Livingstone and Bob Marshall-Andrews all grew up in such households although two of them later changed their affiliation. ~50 years ago the BBC made a satirical comedy based on such a household in east London although I think in 2019 Alf Garnett would be Brexit party or UKIP.The_Taxman said:
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
del.HYUFD said:del.
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.0 -
Lovely. I do voluntary work at the Abbey. I am sure Nokes was only selected as a candidate because her father is CEO of Hampshire County Council.Foxy said:
Yes, they live in Romsey, near the Abbey.AmpfieldAndy said:
I hope your parents are well and happy. We’ve been here 14 years and been very happy here. It’s a nice part of the world. Winchester did vote Remain but Steve Brine looked fairly secure in 2017. There is no sign, that I can see, of a LD revival in Eastleigh which was Huhne’s old constituency. My constituency has Nokes, the useless Immigration Minister, as an MP and was LD until 2010. She has an 18,000 majority now. That’s not going to get overturned in a hurry.Foxy said:
Are you in the Ampfield near Romsey? (I know it well, my parents live nearby).Dadge said:
I said swing. The 12% slump in Tory support in the opinion polls is effectively a 6% swing to the Lib Dems, revival or no revival.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
No, it was too early for the Lib Dem revival. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Loe.AmpfieldAndy said:
.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
And Hampshire isn't in the South West.
I thought that LD gains in the area pretty likely locally. Winchester voted Remain as I recall, and has quite an LD history.
I was thinking more of LD gains in the Locals. My folks share your opinion of Nokes!0 -
The Tories finished 55 seats ahead of Labour, comparable to the 2010 result.williamglenn said:
Agreed, but that's not what I'm talking about. At the start of the campaign May had a huge lead, was predicted to get a huge landslide and framed the choice as "me or Jeremy Corbyn" which helped Corbyn consolidate most of the rest of the vote.justin124 said:
Fair enough - but the result showed the Tories to be nowhere near a landslide , and polls were suggesting that a net loss of Tory seats was quite likely 10 days before Polling Day.williamglenn said:
How does that invalidate my point? Labour started out a long way behind and picked up momentum during the campaign. I didn't say the final result was a surprise.justin124 said:
The first point is a bit of a myth - quite a few polls were pointing to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament by the final week of the campaign.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/opinium-observer-poll-conservatives-way-ahead-of-labour0 -
Yet....I could still see Labour building up massive votes in its inner city core, yet losing a swathe of seats in the Midlands and the north by 500.....dixiedean said:
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Labour and Tories with 63.2% of the vote take 85.7% of the seats (on those figures). They would have to act in an exceptionally unusually selfless way to vote for PR in those circumstances.Dadge said:
If this atomisation of UK politics can carry on for a while, with at least two hung parliaments in a row, we might finally get PR for Westminster elections. That's my priority and hope, anyway.Barnesian said:
FWIW The latest EMA using the last three polls plus the Scottish Westminster one have the Tories on 30.1%, Labour on 33.1%.HYUFD said:
Labour and LDs at 2015 levels, Tories below 1997 levels, all the momentum with the Brexit Party on 14%Foxy said:
Seats:
Con 264
Lab 293
LD/CHUK 28
Brexit/UKIP 1(Thurrock)
Green 1
PC 3
SNP 41
NI 18
Lab minority government. 33 short of overall majority.
I agree that it would be better to happen, but I don't see the means.0 -
The difference between 43-40 and 30-27 is that in the latter case there will be lots of *big* deviations from UNS across the constituencies.dixiedean said:
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:
0 -
I fully accept that - though Survation and Hanbury have recorded 41% and 40% this month. The range of 32% - 36% appears more likely.MarqueeMark said:
Most pollsters now have Labour nowhere near 41%.justin124 said:
On the other hand some allowance needs to be made for the likely house effect of Yougov - which - for whatever reason - has been recording lower Labour poll ratings for the last year. Other pollsters have had Labour as high as 41%.MarqueeMark said:
Labour on 30% is the really interesting number on that list. What do they have to do to get even 5% back - without pissing off another 5%? Meanwhile, the Tories potentially have 14% to entice back from Brexit Party.....although, admittedly, the path to doing so is not exactly well illuminated.HYUFD said:
Nowhere.0 -
Disagreeable on globalisation and you are already seeing signs of it. The Chinese are desperate to boost domestic consumption because they realise the days of exporting everywhere are coming to an end. At a smaller level, look at how many micro-breweries, start up razor firms etc etc are being snapped up by big conglomerates. Global brands are realising that global doesn't sell well any more.Foxy said:
Tories have so may problems straddling the gap between older socially conservative economic nationalists and free trading international bystanders who want to pay next to no tax.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
Globalisation is irreversible. It is neither good or bad, it is like atomic energy, very much up to humans to use it as a tool for good or bad.0 -
If Brokenshire stays in post that may not happen :-) .MarqueeMark said:
Yet....I could still see Labour building up massive votes in its inner city core, yet losing a swathe of seats in the Midlands and the north by 500.....dixiedean said:
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Indeed there will. Which will produce a lot of churn. Which may not be a bad thing. 35-32 was the score in 2005.geoffw said:
The difference between 43-40 and 30-27 is that in the latter case there will be lots of *big* deviations from UNS across the constituencies.dixiedean said:
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:0 -
A couple of mistakes, firstly the Brexit, UKIP and C.UK will more probably dilute the Tory vote under fptp, while the SNP are not as secure as they would like others to believe. The "promise" of iRef2 is to try and restore the Independence promise to the faithful at the SNP spring conference this weekend. Otherwise, recent polling only has 20% of the Scottish electorate voting for another referendum. The support for the SNP at 40% is bigger than the support of the divided Unionist and Green parties, thereby maintaining, for the moment a superiority. Unfortunately, Sturgeon /Murrell are not totally popular within the SNP members, too much control to so little effect, could be a leadership election soon.0
-
I agree many WWCs hate the Conservatives but you only have to see the vote swings in previously safe Labour seats over the past 15 years. Who would have thought that Mansfield would be Tory and that Bishops Auckland and Sedgefield would be marginals?The_Taxman said:
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.The_Taxman said:
.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.0 -
That is Corbyn's fear and why he is taking the stance he is on Brexit. And, from a Labour view of gaining the most seats, it is the right one.MarqueeMark said:
Yet....I could still see Labour building up massive votes in its inner city core, yet losing a swathe of seats in the Midlands and the north by 500.....dixiedean said:
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Really? They managed to rein in the Tories. It was only after the coalition that they became batshit crazy!TheKitchenCabinet said:
Not sure that will do it. Remain is nice but, if Corbyn is coming for your house and your kids' private education, it is less of a priority. And I don't think people will trust the LDs to rein in Labour.Barnesian said:
If they vote LD they get two wins:TheKitchenCabinet said:
Suspect the problem the LibDems will face in a GE is that their seats are concentrated in wealthier, wet Tory bastions like Bath and Bournemouth. When push comes to shove, those voters' fear of Corbyn and what it will do to their wealth will outweigh issues such as Brexit, so I would expect them to hold their noses and vote Conservative.AmpfieldAndy said:
Really ? They were always the main opposition to the Tories in Hampshire. Can’t see any evidence of a revival here.Dadge said:
.AmpfieldAndy said:
May was the architect of her own downfall - unable to say anything that wasn’t a speech written by a speechwriter or a sound bite, totally devoid of charisma, clueless on Brexit and creating a needless crisis over social care. Not sure Labour did anything much except avoid all talk of Brexit. If there was a time for a LibDem revival, that was it, particularly in all the seats they lost to the Tories in 2015. Didn’t happen.williamglenn said:
2017 was a General Election so Labour benefited from the stop May getting a landslide effect. Also Cable is unlikely to spend half the campaign talking about sin.AmpfieldAndy said:
They’ve got the same message as 2017. It didn’t really do much for them then, so not sure why it would now. I think any revival in their fortunes depends on who they choose to replace Cable.AndyJS said:
I'm wondering whether to put a small bet on the LDs getting most votes at the Euros, if the Brexit Party fails to live up to expectations and the two main parties do as badly as expected.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to find a single subject on which Labour are at all coherent or competent. They are fortunate that the Tories seem to equally so. U.K. politics is really suffering from a lack of any party with any electoral credibility which is why Brexit is so toxic. No leadership either. Both major parties could do with a radical overhaul of the patronage they both practice, how they select candidates and their policy portfolio.
1) LD will control Labour excesses with C&S
2) LD will ensure Remain.0 -
I know a lot of leavers. Don't know any fascists though.nichomar said:
I wish that were trueRobD said:
A very, very tiny minority.Foxy said:
Not all Leavers are fascists, but all fascists seem to be Leavers. I accept that it is a minority.HYUFD said:
Calling Leavers Nazis will not help your causeRoger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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Until it crashes and burns!TheKitchenCabinet said:
That is Corbyn's fear and why he is taking the stance he is on Brexit. And, from a Labour view of gaining the most seats, it is the right one.MarqueeMark said:
Yet....I could still see Labour building up massive votes in its inner city core, yet losing a swathe of seats in the Midlands and the north by 500.....dixiedean said:
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:
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Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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I would expect both main parties to decline further from their current polling. Neither offers anything to the casual voter and both rely on hatred of the other.0
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Global brands buying up micro-brands for tailored marketing to locals. They are selling the illusion of localism. Similarly with streaming, I can watch Bollywood or Nollywood at home more easily than take in a big screen movie. This is the atomisation of society that is part of globalism, where any interest can find a community, and not a geographically defined one. I hear there is even a niche worldwide community of people who bet on politics.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Disagreeable on globalisation and you are already seeing signs of it. The Chinese are desperate to boost domestic consumption because they realise the days of exporting everywhere are coming to an end. At a smaller level, look at how many micro-breweries, start up razor firms etc etc are being snapped up by big conglomerates. Global brands are realising that global doesn't sell well any more.Foxy said:
Tories have so may problems straddling the gap between older socially conservative economic nationalists and free trading international bystanders who want to pay next to no tax.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at theThe_Taxman said:
But the next election is not a re-run of the last one in terms of issues or narrative! You just have to see how the main parties have disintegrating coalitions of voters to see the next GE will have a new set of fundamentals pushing peoples voting patterns. HYUFD follows the last opinion poll or the last GE, that is good for him but the problem with focusing on the past all the time comes at a cost of not being able to anticipate the future.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
Globalisation is irreversible. It is neither good or bad, it is like atomic energy, very much up to humans to use it as a tool for good or bad.0 -
I am not convinced people are fascists as an abstract political position. There are principled and coherent accounts of communism from 1848 onwards, but not as far as I know of fascism (then again I have never read Mein Kampf). Fascists don't say OK, we are fascists, we must start interviews for the position of fuhrer. The fuhrer comes first, being the unique individual who can save the country from its current crisis caused by communism, international jewry etc., and fascism then accretes round that individual.twistedfirestopper3 said:
I know a lot of leavers. Don't know any fascists though.nichomar said:
I wish that were trueRobD said:
A very, very tiny minority.Foxy said:
Not all Leavers are fascists, but all fascists seem to be Leavers. I accept that it is a minority.HYUFD said:
Calling Leavers Nazis will not help your causeRoger said:
Exactly! Of course he was applauded by that Nottingham audience. It was full of fascists. I haven't seen anything like it since I used to demonstrate with the ANL at school.HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the abominable Rhys-Davies. The right are moving far to the right and it includes admiration of Trump. The left can go as left as they like and they'll still seem moderate. At last Corbyn is in-step with the zeitgeist
But I'm sure your copious polls will confirm that those noisy Nazis are in quite a small minority even in Nottingham and the BBC audience were infiltrated
(PS What was Fiona B thinking about?)0 -
Of course he would but he would then do a hostile takeover having supplanted themThe_Taxman said:
I don't think Farage would merge with the Tories, he would want to supplant them. I should give up on translating political events in other countries and thinking they will happen here.HYUFD said:
Of course not but even losing them all to CUK or the LDs is not an extinction event (they are unlikely to vote for Corbyn), most Tory voters would still stay in the party, losing 58% or 65% of Tory voters (that being the percentage of Tories who are Leavers) though would be an extinction event with the Tories losing most of their voters to the Brexit Party and no longer the main party of the right.Foxy said:
Are the 35% of 2017 Remain Tory voters no longer core, and therefore diposeable?HYUFD said:
58% of 2015 Tories voted Leave, 65% of 2017 Tories voted Leave, so yes, I am afraid the Tories base is Brexit supporters.The_Taxman said:
You make the mistake of thinking that the Tories base is Brexit supporters and usually cite opinion polls that back this up. I don't agree with you. Some people who vote of a new trend....HYUFD said:
As 4 times election winner John Howard said the most imynoneoftheabove said:HYUFD said:
The liberal diehard Remainer left will never be persuaded, forget them, unite the right to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexitnoneoftheabove said:
What happened to the art of persuasion?HYUFD said:
Yes he was articulate and e had to say proof of thatFoxy said:
Do you really think Rhys Davis came over well last night?HYUFD said:
Rubbish. Tories plus Brexit Party on 41% in tonight's Yougov. Rhys-Davies roundly applauded frequently on QTRoger said:Corbyn not approving of Trumps visit is smart. Anyone watching the embarrassing Question Time last night will have noticed a very unpleasant fascist element in the Nottingham audience fueled by the atgeist
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1121567390284775424?s=19
Voters like you might improve the Tories chances of winning a majority slightly but without Leavers the Tories will not only have zero chance of winning a majority but will probably not even be the main party of opposition to Labour, instead they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party
You always seen to be fighting the last war, and that not very effectively.
In that event there would be no more wars for the party to fight and win unless it merged with Farage and co0 -
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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Since the closing of the mines it is true to say that some seats have trended toward the Tories but then again some Seats in Liverpool for instance have gone the other way. Some seats in Liverpool were Tory safe seats 60 years ago and now have become ultra safe Labour seats. Constituencies undergo demographic, economic and social changes all the time. Sedgefield is still a safe Labour seat, I think it will only become truly marginal in a boundary review. The majority in Sedgefield is greater than 6K in 2017, just as it was in 2015.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I agree many WWCs hate the Conservatives but you only have to see the vote swings in previously safe Labour seats over the past 15 years. Who would have thought that Mansfield would be Tory and that Bishops Auckland and Sedgefield would be marginals?The_Taxman said:
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!TheKitchenCabinet said:
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and communityThe_Taxman said:
.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.HYUFD said:The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.0 -
The Shires would never go red, Brexit Party maybe, even CUK or LD but not redFoxy said:
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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Not too surprising. Edward Garnier had a huge personal following and Neil O'Brien is a new (Northern) kid on the block, but is very capable and one to watch.Foxy said:
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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A striking result, but isn't it a different wording to the standard question?nunuone said:
Also, hullo!0 -
I think it unlikely too, but for Corbyns Labour to go from 12% to 31% in Harborough in 2017 shows that is not only cities where Corbyn appeals. Indeed at the last election some of the biggest swings to Labour were in such true blue shires. Cornwall is another good example.HYUFD said:
The Shires would never go red, Brexit Party maybe, even CUK or LD but not redFoxy said:
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!0
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Hard to watch locally, he is invisible!TOPPING said:
Not too surprising. Edward Garnier had a huge personal following and Neil O'Brien is a new (Northern) kid on the block, but is very capable and one to watch.Foxy said:
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
Parachuted in donkey in a blue rosette in a safe seat.0 -
Hislop and Johnny Mercer bitch fight on Have I Got News for You0
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She's had Francois and Baker in the hoose..Cyclefree said:
Given how rude Trump was to her last year, I wonder how pleased she is at the prospect of having such an oafish guest again.Sandpit said:0 -
Ooh, a new Scotch expert.John_McLean said:A couple of mistakes, firstly the Brexit, UKIP and C.UK will more probably dilute the Tory vote under fptp, while the SNP are not as secure as they would like others to believe. The "promise" of iRef2 is to try and restore the Independence promise to the faithful at the SNP spring conference this weekend. Otherwise, recent polling only has 20% of the Scottish electorate voting for another referendum. The support for the SNP at 40% is bigger than the support of the divided Unionist and Green parties, thereby maintaining, for the moment a superiority. Unfortunately, Sturgeon /Murrell are not totally popular within the SNP members, too much control to so little effect, could be a leadership election soon.
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Using a non-standard version of the question chosen to depress the independence vote.nunuone said:0 -
It shows very little, even in some inner city areas the Tories also get 30%, that does not mean they have a hope of winning them. In most of the shires Labour have barely any councillors and it is the LDs, even the Greens or UKIP who are the Tories main rivals.Foxy said:
I think it unlikely too, but for Corbyns Labour to go from 12% to 31% in Harborough in 2017 shows that is not only cities where Corbyn appeals. Indeed at the last election some of the biggest swings to Labour were in such true blue shires. Cornwall is another good example.HYUFD said:
The Shires would never go red, Brexit Party maybe, even CUK or LD but not redFoxy said:
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
Labour can win the suburbs and a few of the larger towns, they are not going to win the rural shires
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Labour in 1997 did well in the same seats, the reason being Labour got above 40% in the national vote and areas susceptible to the Labour message behaved as usual. I would not make the mistake of thinking the last election predicts the next in terms of seats or performance. I should also ignore the musings of the Tory press in advocating the Brexit party for the European elections as heralding a realignment or a new dawn. The Tory press is just putting pressure on the Tories to make them Brexit as they seem more likely not to deliver it as the days go pass.Foxy said:
I think it unlikely too, but for Corbyns Labour to go from 12% to 31% in Harborough in 2017 shows that is not only cities where Corbyn appeals. Indeed at the last election some of the biggest swings to Labour were in such true blue shires. Cornwall is another good example.HYUFD said:
The Shires would never go red, Brexit Party maybe, even CUK or LD but not redFoxy said:
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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That bad then.Sandpit said:
Dan Hannan is definitely safe.Foxy said:
Clearly no good. How bad is it for the Tories if they get none?MarqueeMark said:
How bad is it for Up-Chuk if they get 0 seats?Foxy said:
I think that depends on Region. In London, SE and possibly SW England CHUK have a reasonable chance.IanB2 said:G
Given the D’Hondt formula and the way the polls appear to be shaping up, I expect LibDem would be a better Remain vote than CUK, in the Euros.The_Taxman said:
I am voting LD in the locals and probably Change UK in the European elections if they happen. My vote for Change UK is partly driven by Brexit, partly because I look favourably on the MPs who left their party to start this venture. I cannot vote Tory (Brexit) or Labour (Corbyn) at this time for varying reasons and I would never vote UKIP or Brexit party! Paradoxically, If Tony Blair was leader of the Labour party at the moment or someone with equivalent policies I would not just vote for Labour but go out and help them! I am a former Tory voter and member and am disgusted at Brexit, it is the biggest own goal in my lifetime as a country.Recidivist said:I don't know how typical I am, but I am simply going to vote in the way that sends the strongest pro-EU signal. If Labour firms up its commitment to another vote - I'll probably plump for them. If not and the Lib Dems do well in the locals then they might well be the best slot for the ballot slip. If Labour remain ambiguous and the Lib Dems don't look like they are motoring then it's either Green or Change UK. The lacklustre launch is putting me off the last of those - and not contesting the locals undermines their appeal to me at the moment. But there are still some weeks ahead of us.
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Aye. However that is a huge gap, even taking into account the change in question favouring "Remain". I wonder where they got that wording from?!sarissa said:
Using a non-standard version of the question chosen to depress the independence vote.nunuone said:
The national disaster that is Brexit must be focussing minds on whether anyone wants another divisive vote in Scotland. According to these polls, the answer is a definite No.0 -
I seem to remember that was the hope last time. Labour already has massive votes in the Inner Cities. How high can they go? If they go from 3% behind to 3% ahead nationally they won't be losing many seats. And if they do, the Tories will lose more.MarqueeMark said:
Yet....I could still see Labour building up massive votes in its inner city core, yet losing a swathe of seats in the Midlands and the north by 500.....dixiedean said:
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.MarqueeMark said:0 -
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4-0 Liverpool with 20 mins to go. Can’t see City slipping up but Liverpool aren’t going to die wondering.0
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UKEUP may find they might get mistaken for UKIPHYUFD said:
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Sure, I was just making the point that the PB stereotype that it is just unwashed students in big cities enthused by Corbyn is quite wide of the mark.The_Taxman said:
Labour in 1997 did well in the same seats, the reason being Labour got above 40% in the national vote and areas susceptible to the Labour message behaved as usual. I would not make the mistake of thinking the last election predicts the next in terms of seats or performance. I should also ignore the musings of the Tory press in advocating the Brexit party for the European elections as heralding a realignment or a new dawn. The Tory press is just putting pressure on the Tories to make them Brexit as they seem more likely not to deliver it as the days go pass.Foxy said:
I think it unlikely too, but for Corbyns Labour to go from 12% to 31% in Harborough in 2017 shows that is not only cities where Corbyn appeals. Indeed at the last election some of the biggest swings to Labour were in such true blue shires. Cornwall is another good example.HYUFD said:
The Shires would never go red, Brexit Party maybe, even CUK or LD but not redFoxy said:
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.AmpfieldAndy said:
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.thecommissioner said:Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
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They could end up with 97 points, 20 points clear of 3rd place and not win the league. Crazy.AmpfieldAndy said:4-0 Liverpool with 20 mins to go. Can’t see City slipping up but Liverpool aren’t going to die wondering.
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