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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What could really drive LAB voters away is Corbyn ignoring the vast majority of them on Brexit
Next week’s Labours ruling national executive committee will be faced with demands to include a clear commitment to a confirmatory public vote on Brexit in its European election manifesto. This is something that has not appeared in draft leaflets that have been circulated within the party and have aroused fury.
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“Today I’m being born. What will the world I grow up in look like?”
Choose your future. European elections 23-26 May
https://www.facebook.com/europeanparliament/videos/416115432521831/
ETA youtube version https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3tErFvAgag
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/26/extinction-rebellion-protesters-to-stand-in-european-elections
Could be that the Greens lose out on a seat or two if they gain traction.
It could be Labour Leavers annoyed that Brexit hasn't happened.
It could be Labour Remainers frustrated that Labour won't fall in line with the petition-signing crowd.
I tend to feel that the polarisation over Brexit has accelerated recently with the passing of Brexit day. While fence-sitting previously served Labour well, as they allowed everyone to believe Labour was on their side, now I think that strategy is failing, as everyone doubts whether Labour agrees with them.
The point of decision has been reached for Labour.
Conversely, if they do decide to go for a referendum for the purposes of the Euro elections, then it would be impossible for them not to vote for one in the Commons, but the leadership cabal seems very determined not to do so (at least for now).
Weasel words it will be, I'm sure.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48070983
He'd probably prefer to be dining with terrorists or anti-Semites ...
AIUI the anti-capitalist protest movement don’t have a registered party, and Tommy Robinson is standing by himself against UKIP. There could well be others we don’t know about. One more known unknown is Lord Buckethead, who could save his deposit as a proper ‘f*** the lot of you’ vote.
I understand that Labour's stance in the talks with the government has been that it will be very hard for any deal to get through parliament unless it includes a confirmatory vote. Which is not quite the same as saying that Labour is in favour of a confirmatory vote, but it is not far away from that position.
Stop violating the comments policy please.
However, you appear to have misread Mr. Jessop's post. He didn't assert Corbyn is an anti-Semite.
But yes, I think you are right. They'll come up with some such nonsense.
Bit of a fail not to mention the referendum part of the policy in the leaflet though. Practised ambiguity only works if it's, erm, practised.
I wonder if a lot of Leavers would enjoy dining with xenophobes and racists?
Corbyn is antisemitic to his fingertips, and the appeal to authority is generally recognised as a fallacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/03/jeremy-corbyn-passover-jewdas-good-news
2) Can you provide a link to the comments policy you think I'm violating?
3) Peter Oborne is not judge and jury on such things.
And welcome to PB!
I must admit, ,if Jeremy doesn't like having dinner with climate change deniers, then it must make family does with his brother quite difficult ...
He will have to boycott a lot of other visits by other leaders if misogyny and racism and non-compliance with treaties are the criteria by which they are to be judged. None of the people he has chosen to meet would pass muster according to those criteria.
One wonders what level of hypocrisy will prove too much for Corbyn supporters.
And there were plenty of Jewish Kapos in the concentration camps who did the Nazi’s dirty work for them.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/the-londoner-ns-deputy-editor-in-cooler-over-scruton-a4127381.html
I also do not think that 'Jeremy Corbyn is an antisemite' (in the sense of being prejudiced against Jews because they are Jews, or representing any sort of threat to the welfare of Jews in Britain) is an assertion that stands up to scrutiny. Please note that this is not to deny that Labour have an issue with this particular strain of racism, or to downplay its importance, and is not to say that I share 100% his views on the Israel Palestine conflict.
And having delivered myself of that - well, I'd better get the dinner on or things are going to slide to rack and ruin tonight.
A week is a long time in politics. A day is a long time in Brexit politics. A month is an eternity.
One clear decisive move by the NEC on Tuesday to back a People's Vote and there will be a flood of remainers, like me, for Labour.
A “confirmatory vote” is ambiguous on the point.
[There's a comments policy????]
How unprofessional.
And it is specifically the dinner in honour of the ghastly creature that he is boycotting. He would not refuse to meet him for 'business' purposes.
TBH if Corbyn had NOT taken this position I would have been wretchedly disappointed in him.
Though the queen has a longstanding tradition of having State Dinners for a variety of egocentric tyrants, so what is one more?
Sit Trump between Charles and Harry, and see how long he lasts.
Whilst they might therefore lose some of the fanatics at the margins I suspect that the majority of Labour supporters will either vote to give the Tories a good kicking or not bother. I think the prospects for a major split in Labour on this are overstated in the thread header.
Something in the Mainstream of Conservative opinion until 2016.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1121815281033187330?s=19
You're a vegetarian? Why not a vegan, hypocrite?!
You're boycotting a company whose practices you don't agree with? Why aren't you meticulously researching every single company you buy from in case they've done something worse, hypocrite?!
You're donating money to a cancer charity? Why not a heart charity too, hypocrite?!
You're refusing to meet with an abhorrent dickhead? Why not all abhorrent dickheads, hypocrite?!
Has anyone in the history of the world ever used this kind of argument in good faith?
Corbyn and Labour are screwed if they don’t support a second vote . It’s a low risk strategy anyway as it’s very unlikely it would get through the HOC , any irritation by the ever diminishing band of Labour Leavers would soon be forgotten when a second vote doesn’t happen.
So why Corbyn is making such a drama over this is mistifying .
Nobody is more UKIPPY than Nigel Fucking Farage.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1121817784533553152
Trump is a cancer on the planet and has enabled scum like Bolsonaro to get elected . He’s also propping up the odious war criminal Netanyahu .
There are 5 possible outcomes
1: Child a is a boy called Jason and child b is a girl
2: Child a is a girl and child b is a boy called Jason
3: Child a is a boy called Jason and child b is a boy not called Jason
4: Child a is a boy called Jason and child b is a boy called Jason
5: Child a is a boy not called Jason and child b is a boy called Jason
Let's pretend the probability that a boy is called Jason is 0.1 because I'm on a train and I'm buggered if I'm looking it up. So the probs are:
1: 0.5*0.1*0.5 = 0.0250
2: 0.5*0.5*0.1 = 0.0250
3: 0.5*0.1*0.5*0.9 = 0.0225
4: 0.5*0.1*0.5*0.1 = 0.0025
5: 0.5*0.9*0.5*0.1 = 0.0225
Total = 0.0975
So the probability of two boys = (p3 + p4 + p5)/(p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 + p5)
= (0.0225 + 0.0025 + 0.0225)/0.0975
= 0.04525/0.0975
= 46.4%
Amirite, amirite, amirite? Huh, huh?
I should have said “given the likely outcomes which could be achieved short term with Corbyn as leader”. Given the way he’s treated the conference vote thus far, I see a vanishingly small chance of Labour’s position looking anything other than vague. The NEC will either fudge, or he’ll ignore them.
And further, note the inequalities in Corbyn's situation. Prior to 2015 he met the murderers and antisemites he chose to meet in a personal capacity and because he wanted to. A state banquet does not bring people together for their personal beliefs and characteristics. Honouring Trump is honouring the USA, a country with which, much as I loathe any talk about the special relationship, we have a special relationship. It's the flouncy JCR politics of the thing which is so embarrassing Corbyn and Cable ans Bercow are making us look like dicks on the international stage - presumably because they don't think brexit is doing a good enough job of that.
Then they failed to deliver Brexit.
And now we have Ann Widdecombe and Farage out foxtrotting them - Strictly Brexit style.
Glad to have reached the end of my working week albeit reduced by 20%.
I find myself paradoxically on the same side as Jeremy Corbyn - opposed to a second vote in a Party that largely wants one.
The problem remains the Commons has neither a majority for Leaving via the WA or without a WA and nor does it have a majority foe Remaining via either a revocation of A50 or a second vote. All four options have been tried and all four have come up short.
The only card May has is to somehow hope the EU will budge on the backstop out of sheer frustration - there is a majority for something, she can argue to the EU and it can all be ended and life can continue if only the backstop is taken out. She might be expecting the EU to budge - I wouldn't count on it.
That leaves a GE as a way of changing the Parliamentary arithmetic. Farage and the Brexit Party can get 15% but if it's evenly distributed it's a whole lot of nothing. He may have some proxies on the Conservative benches but while the current numbers place Corbyn insecurely in No.10 they don't really change anything. Would the EU renegotiate the WA with a different UK Government?