Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.
The Shires would never go red, Brexit Party maybe, even CUK or LD but not red
I think it unlikely too, but for Corbyns Labour to go from 12% to 31% in Harborough in 2017 shows that is not only cities where Corbyn appeals. Indeed at the last election some of the biggest swings to Labour were in such true blue shires. Cornwall is another good example.
Labour in 1997 did well in the same seats, the reason being Labour got above 40% in the national vote and areas susceptible to the Labour message behaved as usual. I would not make the mistake of thinking the last election predicts the next in terms of seats or performance. I should also ignore the musings of the Tory press in advocating the Brexit party for the European elections as heralding a realignment or a new dawn. The Tory press is just putting pressure on the Tories to make them Brexit as they seem more likely not to deliver it as the days go pass.
Sure, I was just making the point that the PB stereotype that it is just unwashed students in big cities enthused by Corbyn is quite wide of the mark.
PB does loves a good stereotype! Spending so much time on here, I've learned all leavers are racist, xenophobic little Englanders and all remainers are democracy denying middle class traitorous scum.
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on.
Be.
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.
A
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on.
Be.
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community. Politically, we are at the stage of realignment - the natural place for the Conservatives to focus themselves at is on the community / national state / citizens of somewhere plane and its natural support is in tune with that. The problem for Labour is that it needs to satisfy two bases which will be on opposite sides in the new realigment (WWC traditional voters / citizens of the world activists) and that one base (the WWC traditional voters) will have a lot in common with the Conservatives.
A
I doubt WWC voters will become
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
I agree. Tis the "WWC" that is most in touch day to day with minority communities, working, living and loving in the same neighbourhoods. Obviously more so in some places than others, but the world is changing.
Using a non-standard version of the question chosen to depress the independence vote.
Its not the format the SNP chose to ask, but it is the format that was used in the most recent referendum on EU membership - one that resulted in a 'Leave' vote.
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on.
Be.
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community.
A
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
I think you are correct. Thinking forward the age of automation is going to extinguish the demographic completely. As society experiences higher levels of education and more reliance on brains rather than brawn I can see people becoming a lot more tolerant and inclusive as your comment suggests.
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
Although, that a back bencher who has been an MP for 4 years can be seen to be a candidate for PM on the basis of being under 40, ex-military and not an obvious nutter, is perhaps striking in itself.
I would expect both main parties to decline further from their current polling. Neither offers anything to the casual voter and both rely on hatred of the other.
I'm not sure that hatred will allow them to depress much further.
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
Although, that a back bencher who has been an MP for 4 years can be seen to be a candidate for PM on the basis of being under 40, ex-military and not an obvious nutter, is perhaps striking in itself.
Keir Starmer was floated as a Labour leadership candidate within weeks of being an MP, so it can be even more extreme.
Reminds me of the Literal Democrats. I think that it actually cost the LD's a FPTP MEP!
Which is no doubt why typing Literal Democrats into Wikipedia redirects to the Registration of Political Parties Act - as funny as that might be no one wants that to happen to them!
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
Although, that a back bencher who has been an MP for 4 years can be seen to be a candidate for PM on the basis of being under 40, ex-military and not an obvious nutter, is perhaps striking in itself.
Keir Starmer was floated as a Labour leadership candidate within weeks of being an MP, so it can be even more extreme.
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on.
Be.
nservatives.
A
I doubt WWC voters will become
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
I agree. Tis the "WWC" that is most in touch day to day with minority communities, working, living and loving in the same neighbourhoods. Obviously more so in some places than others, but the world is changing.
So why did the pro-EU supporters after the vote brandish these people as thick racists?
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
Although, that a back bencher who has been an MP for 4 years can be seen to be a candidate for PM on the basis of being under 40, ex-military and not an obvious nutter, is perhaps striking in itself.
People in Labour circles talked up Dan Jarvis in the same vein at one time. I could never see it personally but if we all thought the same we would be living in a totalitarian state!
Reminds me of the Literal Democrats. I think that it actually cost the LD's a FPTP MEP!
Which is no doubt why typing Literal Democrats into Wikipedia redirects to the Registration of Political Parties Act - as funny as that might be no one wants that to happen to them!
The Literal Democrat was the estranged son of the then President of Winchester Lib Dems, and basically did it to get at his father.
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
Although, that a back bencher who has been an MP for 4 years can be seen to be a candidate for PM on the basis of being under 40, ex-military and not an obvious nutter, is perhaps striking in itself.
Keir Starmer was floated as a Labour leadership candidate within weeks of being an MP, so it can be even more extreme.
Indeed. And one could have said the same for Cameron when he got the gig. However, neither he, nor Starmer, would have been jumping straight to PM!
Con going from bad to worse... And Labour's position utterly dire as well...
Utterly dire....But 290 seats Baxterised.
Brave man that bets on a Baxtered outcome these days.....
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.
Yet....I could still see Labour building up massive votes in its inner city core, yet losing a swathe of seats in the Midlands and the north by 500.....
That is Corbyn's fear and why he is taking the stance he is on Brexit. And, from a Labour view of gaining the most seats, it is the right one.
Reminds me of the Literal Democrats. I think that it actually cost the LD's a FPTP MEP!
Which is no doubt why typing Literal Democrats into Wikipedia redirects to the Registration of Political Parties Act - as funny as that might be no one wants that to happen to them!
The Literal Democrat was the estranged son of the then President of Winchester Lib Dems, and basically did it to get at his father.
That's very funny indeed. I love a good family political dispute.
Reminds me of the Literal Democrats. I think that it actually cost the LD's a FPTP MEP!
Which is no doubt why typing Literal Democrats into Wikipedia redirects to the Registration of Political Parties Act - as funny as that might be no one wants that to happen to them!
That’s why TIG are now known as CUK, and have had a lot of their branding problems over the past few weeks. They appear to have not brought anyone with them experienced in the mechanics of running a political party and contesting elections.
Reminds me of the Literal Democrats. I think that it actually cost the LD's a FPTP MEP!
Which is no doubt why typing Literal Democrats into Wikipedia redirects to the Registration of Political Parties Act - as funny as that might be no one wants that to happen to them!
The Literal Democrat was the estranged son of the then President of Winchester Lib Dems, and basically did it to get at his father.
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
Although, that a back bencher who has been an MP for 4 years can be seen to be a candidate for PM on the basis of being under 40, ex-military and not an obvious nutter, is perhaps striking in itself.
Keir Starmer was floated as a Labour leadership candidate within weeks of being an MP, so it can be even more extreme.
Indeed. And one could have said the same for Cameron when he got the gig. However, neither he, nor Starmer, would have been jumping straight to PM!
Fair point. I cannot say I am as enamoured of the idea of complete outsiders as political leaders as some seem to be. I tend to think the nature of the job and culture leads to people in that position becoming what they are, and I don't see that some novice will improve that.
Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.
Not too surprising. Edward Garnier had a huge personal following and Neil O'Brien is a new (Northern) kid on the block, but is very capable and one to watch.
Hard to watch locally, he is invisible!
Parachuted in donkey in a blue rosette in a safe seat.
Very naive he is an extremely capable guy have you ever met him or are you just parotting the left line?
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on.
Be.
nservatives.
A
I doubt WWC voters will become
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
I agree. Tis the "WWC" that is most in touch day to day with minority communities, working, living and loving in the same neighbourhoods. Obviously more so in some places than others, but the world is changing.
So why did the pro-EU supporters after the vote brandish these people as thick racists?
I don't know to whom you are referring, but I think they were badly informed. My parents were going to vote leave because they hadn't heard of any benefits from EU membership. I gave them a few and they switched. My seafaring father in law voted leave because of some EU fishing regulation to which he objected. Incidentally my father who also had a spell working on a fishing boat thinks he was wrong about it being an EU regulation. I couldn't understand what either of them were talking about, so it is me that is the thick one.
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
I think you are correct. Thinking forward the age of automation is going to extinguish the demographic completely. As society experiences higher levels of education and more reliance on brains rather than brawn I can see people becoming a lot more tolerant and inclusive as your comment suggests.
It will be the middle class which will be most affected by the age of AI. It will not be brains which will be needed but skills robots don’t have: empathy, care, emotional intelligence, judgment etc. These are not necessarily correlated with high IQ and loads of good exam results.
Second, tolerance is a result of understanding and empathy and imagination. The highly intelligent are not automatically those who only have these characteristics. Sometimes the most intolerant, hateful and evil people around are the highly educated from well off families: see the Red Brigades or the Sri Lankan bombers.
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
I think you are correct. Thinking forward the age of automation is going to extinguish the demographic completely. As society experiences higher levels of education and more reliance on brains rather than brawn I can see people becoming a lot more tolerant and inclusive as your comment suggests.
It will not be brains which will be needed but skills robts don’t have: empathy, care, emotional intelligence, judgment etc..
Shit, I feel like I am in a lot of trouble. Unhealthy obession with political minutiae is about all I'm good for, and a robot could definitely do that.
Corbyn is a Brexit genius. People get so confused and believe whatever they want about Labour, and he while he gets criticised no one left will outright attack him, since if they were going Tig they would have by now.
Corbyn is a Brexit genius. People get so confused and believe whatever they want about Labour, and he while he gets criticised no one left will outright attack him, since if they were going Tig they would have by now.
The most clever part of the strategy, if it's deliberate, is that the Tories can't land a glove on them because they're being criticised by their own side for backing Brexit.
It will be the middle class which will be most affected by the age of AI. It will not be brains which will be needed but skills robots don’t have: empathy, care, emotional intelligence, judgment etc. These are not necessarily correlated with high IQ and loads of good exam results.
Second, tolerance is a result of understanding and empathy and imagination. The highly intelligent are not automatically those who only have these characteristics. Sometimes the most intolerant, hateful and evil people around are the highly educated from well off families: see the Red Brigades or the Sri Lankan bombers.
I wouldn't rule out AIs developing empathy, care etc (or the ability to mimic them so accurately that it comes to the same thing). Google AI writing poetry; some of it is so convincing that at a blind tasting people can't tell the difference.
From a betting perspective, the Lib Dems are way under the price. The only local anti-Brexit choice- albeit it around 55% coverage. but I reckon 30%+ on the seats they fight. That's pretty good momentum for the Euros. So maybe a 20% local vote but 9+ councils. So perhaps 25% on the Euros... after all its only three weeks after the local vote.
I hear much better than that from the powers that be.
The Lib Dems are on course to hurt the others, and it is not in the price.
Corbyn knows that Labour cannot win a meaningful victory if they only appeal to London and similar urban/university constituencies.
Urban constituencies are all they can go for. They are not going to see a revival in Scotland or the English shires and thanks to Tory incompetence in 2017, they have as much of Wales as they are going to get.
I was surprised to see Corbyn get 30% of the vote in Harborough and also Huntington. Not inconceivable that even the shires ould go red if the Tories implode.
Not too surprising. Edward Garnier had a huge personal following and Neil O'Brien is a new (Northern) kid on the block, but is very capable and one to watch.
Hard to watch locally, he is invisible!
Parachuted in donkey in a blue rosette in a safe seat.
Very naive he is an extremely capable guy have you ever met him or are you just parotting the left line?
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on.
Be.
nservatives.
A
I doubt WWC voters will become
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
Also I think the idea that the WWC is even a demographic any more is a romantic fiction that appeals to middle class conservatives who don't spend much time with them. My parents conform quite closely to the stereotype as it happens - manual workers, conservative social views, they were inclined to vote leave (though I think talked them round) and pretty much floating voters who have floated more blue than red lately. So if you met them you'd be thinking that this looks promising for the Conservatives. But you should see the crowd that turns up for Christmas dinner. Last time we had some muslims from Morocco, my cousin's gay son, a Jew, and a couple of French speakers - all family members to some extent. Out of around 20 of us I think my brother in law was the only one that was both completely caucasian and employed full time working with his hands. The fact is that the working class is no longer especially white and doesn't do much in the way of work in the traditional sense. They might well be more willing to give voting Conservative a try than formerly, but they are also more likely to try humous as well.
I agree. Tis the "WWC" that is most in touch day to day with minority communities, working, living and loving in the same neighbourhoods. Obviously more so in some places than others, but the world is changing.
So why did the pro-EU supporters after the vote brandish these people as thick racists?
I don't know. I haven't said anything of that sort.
4-0 Liverpool with 20 mins to go. Can’t see City slipping up but Liverpool aren’t going to die wondering.
They could end up with 97 points, 20 points clear of 3rd place and not win the league. Crazy.
Whatever it is has been a fabulous season with the outcome going down to the wire. Man City have to play Burnley away while Liverpool's biggest challenge will be Newcastle.
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.
.
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
I doubt WWC voters will become Tories in a mass exodus, it sounds a bit like a fantasy to me like in 2017 when die hard Labour supporters who voted Leave were going to somehow vote Tory in a landslide. Most Labour WWC voters I have run into hate the Tories with a passion and will never vote for them!
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
I agree many WWCs hate the Conservatives but you only have to see the vote swings in previously safe Labour seats over the past 15 years. Who would have thought that Mansfield would be Tory and that Bishops Auckland and Sedgefield would be marginals?
Since the closing of the mines it is true to say that some seats have trended toward the Tories but then again some Seats in Liverpool for instance have gone the other way. Some seats in Liverpool were Tory safe seats 60 years ago and now have become ultra safe Labour seats. Constituencies undergo demographic, economic and social changes all the time. Sedgefield is still a safe Labour seat, I think it will only become truly marginal in a boundary review. The majority in Sedgefield is greater than 6K in 2017, just as it was in 2015.
Yes, same in Manchester with some of the urban seats. Times changes and so do preferences.
The problem Labour faces is most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave
Spot on. And more to the point, Labour marginals in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands were also leave voting areas. Losing tens of thousands of Remain-loving millennial hipsters in inner London doesn't hurt Labour's election chances one bit - losing leave-voting WWC in Labour marginals does.
.
I had a meeting with a major wealth management fund. Their driver of their investment strategy moving forwards is that the cycle of more globalisation is over and that we are at the start of a new decades long cycle of a focus on the nation state and community
Also, before somebody mentions the future is with the youth - the fastest segment of the population are the older age groups, and they have a higher turnout rate. Pandering to their views over Millennials is an election winner for the near future (and arguably for longer).
People vote in a particular direction for all sorts of different reasons. It is true Trump is a nationalist but I don't see it taking off in other significant countries, you will always have some countries that experiment with extremes but I would not translate that into a wave that will hit globalisation.
I agree many WWCs hate the Conservatives but you only have to see the vote swings in previously safe Labour seats over the past 15 years. Who would have thought that Mansfield would be Tory and that Bishops Auckland and Sedgefield would be marginals?
Since the closing of the mines it is true to say that some seats have trended toward the Tories but then again some Seats in Liverpool for instance have gone the other way. Some seats in Liverpool were Tory safe seats 60 years ago and now have become ultra safe Labour seats. Constituencies undergo demographic, economic and social changes all the time. Sedgefield is still a safe Labour seat, I think it will only become truly marginal in a boundary review. The majority in Sedgefield is greater than 6K in 2017, just as it was in 2015.
Most of the seats in Liverpool have been swinging away from the Tories since 1959, with the possible exception of 1970 (and 1979 in one of the middle-class constituencies). The explanation has to be that working-class Protestants in Liverpool used to be staunch Tory supporters until the 1960s, whereas the working-class Catholics voted Labour. Now they all vote Labour.
Johnny Mercer pretty good on HIGNFY! Doesn't look like he has a leadership bid in mind!
Were you watching the same progamme as me? He looked terible to me - awful body language and he's given the allegations against him a good airing on primetime TV.
I meant good in terms of entertainment. In terms of leadership bid, he committed seppuko.
Since the closing of the mines it is true to say that some seats have trended toward the Tories but then again some Seats in Liverpool for instance have gone the other way. Some seats in Liverpool were Tory safe seats 60 years ago and now have become ultra safe Labour seats. Constituencies undergo demographic, economic and social changes all the time. Sedgefield is still a safe Labour seat, I think it will only become truly marginal in a boundary review. The majority in Sedgefield is greater than 6K in 2017, just as it was in 2015.
I grew up in Sedgefield back in the 1990s. Even in the height of Blair there (who was an absolutely shocking constituency MP with zero presence apart from media wins for him) there was always a working class anti Labour sentiment there. Primarily, it was due to immigration concerns and social issues like LGBT rights.
Ruth Davidson will return from maternity leave to a completely different political landscape.
Not really, little change on those figures and the same poll has a big lead for No to independence
Non standard question.
Still a massive gap, however. I think Yes have serious problems, Brexit is more of a threat to them than the opposite. An unexpected upside from an otherwise hideous political error.
Using a non-standard version of the question chosen to depress the independence vote.
Aye. However that is a huge gap, even taking into account the change in question favouring "Remain". I wonder where they got that wording from?!
The national disaster that is Brexit must be focussing minds on whether anyone wants another divisive vote in Scotland. According to these polls, the answer is a definite No.
Using a non-standard version of the question chosen to depress the independence vote.
Aye. However that is a huge gap, even taking into account the change in question favouring "Remain". I wonder where they got that wording from?!
The national disaster that is Brexit must be focussing minds on whether anyone wants another divisive vote in Scotland. According to these polls, the answer is a definite No.
Errrr only 34% don't want another referendum.
But how many want a people’s vote on independence or a confirmatory final say on remaining in the UK?
And what's most amazing is how *little* the geography of the UK has changed. The transport links are largely the same, and a few towns have dramatically expanded.
Ruth Davidson will return from maternity leave to a completely different political landscape.
Not really, little change on those figures and the same poll has a big lead for No to independence
Non standard question.
Still a massive gap, however. I think Yes have serious problems, Brexit is more of a threat to them than the opposite. An unexpected upside from an otherwise hideous political error.
If Remain had won the EU referendum, on what premise would 'Yes' currently be demanding a second Indy referendum, or do you think that wouldn't be a serious problem?
Con going from bad to worse... And Labour's position utterly dire as well...
Utterly dire....But 290 seats Baxterised.
Brave man that bets on a Baxtered outcome these days.....
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.
The difference between 43-40 and 30-27 is that in the latter case there will be lots of *big* deviations from UNS across the constituencies.
When you say "lots" - how many do you think?
The standard deviation of UKIP's 2015 votes was low, almost as low as the Alliance in 1983.
If the Brexit Party gets 18% in 2020, then I suspect their major achievement will be to have dramatically increased the LibDem representation in parliament.
Today HM The Queen invited Jeremy, the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition, to a dinner. It will be part of a state visit in which the guest and host nations would commemorate the sacrifice of their soldiers, sailors and airmen in the D-Day landings, key to the defeat of the Axis powers in WW2. The guest nation is our number one trade and intel partner and our number one military ally.
Jeremy declined this. He said he wasn't going if so-and-so was going, so there. He did it when Tess invited him round and Chukka was there, and he'll do it again. He does have, y'know, other friends. You wouldn't know them; they're from a different school.
Jeremy wants to be PM and represent HMG on the world stage, and apparently this High School Musical sort of behaviour is fine by him, and not the behaviour of a cast-iron, wall-to-wall, ocean-going thundertwat.
Ruth Davidson will return from maternity leave to a completely different political landscape.
Not really, little change on those figures and the same poll has a big lead for No to independence
Non standard question.
Still a massive gap, however. I think Yes have serious problems, Brexit is more of a threat to them than the opposite. An unexpected upside from an otherwise hideous political error.
If Remain had won the EU referendum, on what premise would 'Yes' currently be demanding a second Indy referendum, or do you think that wouldn't be a serious problem?
Well, given that the Tories would likely be going through a leadership contest dominated by talk of a second referendum, the SNP could demand a second Indy referendum on the basis that “we told you once and we meant it”.
Con going from bad to worse... And Labour's position utterly dire as well...
Utterly dire....But 290 seats Baxterised.
Brave man that bets on a Baxtered outcome these days.....
Well, true. But, unless another Party can get above 30% in a GE, then the gap between the big two remains the most important figure. Whether that lead is 43-40 or 30-27 is, in many ways irrelevant.
The difference between 43-40 and 30-27 is that in the latter case there will be lots of *big* deviations from UNS across the constituencies.
When you say "lots" - how many do you think?
The standard deviation of UKIP's 2015 votes was low, almost as low as the Alliance in 1983.
If the Brexit Party gets 18% in 2020, then I suspect their major achievement will be to have dramatically increased the LibDem representation in parliament.
Yep. See GE 2005 for evidence of how 35\32/22 splits work out . FPTP is brutal to small parties whose vote is widely spread .
Think the Tories will be nearer 1000 seat losses...
If the Brexit Party and UKIP were standing in all the wards maybe, but combined they are standing in less than 20% of wards up, thus the Tories will do better than their poll rating suggests
Five years ago today, no one would have expected perpetually dominant Scottish Labour to collapse in the way they did, nor for a pro-independence/leave group of nationalists like the SNP to come to completely dominate Scottish domestic politics.
If that can happen in Scotland, why can't something similar happen in England?
A 400 gain for the LDs would set an unexpectedly strong narrative for them going into the Euros, IMO.
The knock-on effects of that would probably be (a) “Heidi who?” and (b) discouraging wavering remainers from getting in behind the Deal any time soon.
Conversely, the Tories’ 550 loss would represent another nail for the “at least they’re better than Corbyn” storyline!
Ironically though if the LDs do better than expected in the locals and Labour do worse than expected and that feeds through to the Euros and the LDs eat into the Labour vote that could ensure the Brexit Party beats Labour for first in the Euros.
The Tories may lose 550 seats but they were starting from a high base and would still win comfortably most seats on the night
Think the Tories will be nearer 1000 seat losses...
By contrast, I reckon nearer 300. Rural wards are more about the personality than party label. Many voters will know the candidates as "Bill or Anne", rather than Tory or LD. I know I do. "Anne" bears no responsibility for Brexit.
Think the Tories will be nearer 1000 seat losses...
By contrast, I reckon nearer 300. Rural wards are more about the personality than party label. Many voters will know the candidates as "Bill or Anne", rather than Tory or LD. I know I do. "Anne" bears no responsibility for Brexit.
The seats in my rural unitary are 10-15 miles across (probably more in the green bumpy bits). Bill and Ann only know a couple of hundred people, probably in one of the ten villages they serve. It’s a factor, sure, but a lot of others are going on the colour of the leaflets.
A 400 gain for the LDs would set an unexpectedly strong narrative for them going into the Euros, IMO.
The knock-on effects of that would probably be (a) “Heidi who?” and (b) discouraging wavering remainers from getting in behind the Deal any time soon.
Conversely, the Tories’ 550 loss would represent another nail for the “at least they’re better than Corbyn” storyline!
Ironically though if the LDs do better than expected in the locals and Labour do worse than expected and that feeds through to the Euros and the LDs eat into the Labour vote that could ensure the Brexit Party beats Labour for first in the Euros.
The Tories may lose 550 seats but they were starting from a high base and would still win comfortably most seats on the night
Agreed on the first point - lots of unintended consequences from fractured parties and Brexit going across party lines.
I think the second bit matters less: narrative in locals is set by gains/losses rather than absolute seats/votes... because the seats up each year are so unbalanced.
Think the Tories will be nearer 1000 seat losses...
By contrast, I reckon nearer 300. Rural wards are more about the personality than party label. Many voters will know the candidates as "Bill or Anne", rather than Tory or LD. I know I do. "Anne" bears no responsibility for Brexit.
The seats in my rural unitary are 10-15 miles across (probably more in the green bumpy bits). Bill and Ann only know a couple of hundred people, probably in one of the ten villages they serve. It’s a factor, sure, but a lot of others are going on the colour of the leaflets.
Today HM The Queen invited Jeremy, the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition, to a dinner. It will be part of a state visit in which the guest and host nations would commemorate the sacrifice of their soldiers, sailors and airmen in the D-Day landings, key to the defeat of the Axis powers in WW2. The guest nation is our number one trade and intel partner and our number one military ally.
Jeremy declined this. He said he wasn't going if so-and-so was going, so there. He did it when Tess invited him round and Chukka was there, and he'll do it again. He does have, y'know, other friends. You wouldn't know them; they're from a different school.
Jeremy wants to be PM and represent HMG on the world stage, and apparently this High School Musical sort of behaviour is fine by him, and not the behaviour of a cast-iron, wall-to-wall, ocean-going thundertwat.
Donald Trump is morally problematic so Corbyn will not meet with him. This makes clear Corbyn does not feel Hamas, Hezbollah or the IRA are morally problematic.
Today HM The Queen invited Jeremy, the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition, to a dinner. It will be part of a state visit in which the guest and host nations would commemorate the sacrifice of their soldiers, sailors and airmen in the D-Day landings, key to the defeat of the Axis powers in WW2. The guest nation is our number one trade and intel partner and our number one military ally.
Jeremy declined this. He said he wasn't going if so-and-so was going, so there. He did it when Tess invited him round and Chukka was there, and he'll do it again. He does have, y'know, other friends. You wouldn't know them; they're from a different school.
Jeremy wants to be PM and represent HMG on the world stage, and apparently this High School Musical sort of behaviour is fine by him, and not the behaviour of a cast-iron, wall-to-wall, ocean-going thundertwat.
Donald Trump is morally problematic so Corbyn will not meet with him. This makes clear Corbyn does not feel Hamas, Hezbollah or the IRA are morally problematic.
Or his status is different. When he met with Hamas, Hezbollah and Irish Republicans (I recall it being SF not IRA) all those years ago he was an obscure back bencher. Now he is LOTO, which is quite a different thing.
The fact their leaflets are claiming they are pro-Brexit is why Labour's tally can't be added to the "Remain" total when the results come in.
The fact that the elections are happening at all means that the Conservatives' tally can't be added to the "Brexit" total when the results come in.
Didn’t most Tory MPs vote for it?
Polling shows that half of the diminished Tory vote, are Tory Remainers. While I think they are mistaken, they do seem extraordinarily loyal to the party, much more so than most Tory Leave voters.
Comments
How did that suppress the 'independence' vote?
Second, tolerance is a result of understanding and empathy and imagination. The highly intelligent are not automatically those who only have these characteristics. Sometimes the most intolerant, hateful and evil people around are the highly educated from well off families: see the Red Brigades or the Sri Lankan bombers.
I hear much better than that from the powers that be.
The Lib Dems are on course to hurt the others, and it is not in the price.
https://twitter.com/natlibscotmaps/status/1121739682474283009
And notably his launch video provoked a defensive reaction from Trump. I think he might surprise those who had written him off.
And what's most amazing is how *little* the geography of the UK has changed. The transport links are largely the same, and a few towns have dramatically expanded.
But the changes are very much around the edges.
The standard deviation of UKIP's 2015 votes was low, almost as low as the Alliance in 1983.
If the Brexit Party gets 18% in 2020, then I suspect their major achievement will be to have dramatically increased the LibDem representation in parliament.
Jeremy declined this. He said he wasn't going if so-and-so was going, so there. He did it when Tess invited him round and Chukka was there, and he'll do it again. He does have, y'know, other friends. You wouldn't know them; they're from a different school.
Jeremy wants to be PM and represent HMG on the world stage, and apparently this High School Musical sort of behaviour is fine by him, and not the behaviour of a cast-iron, wall-to-wall, ocean-going thundertwat.
FPTP is brutal to small parties whose vote is widely spread .
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1121901885970112512?s=20
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1121905456249806848?s=20
If that can happen in Scotland, why can't something similar happen in England?
The knock-on effects of that would probably be (a) “Heidi who?” and (b) discouraging wavering remainers from getting in behind the Deal any time soon.
Conversely, the Tories’ 550 loss would represent another nail for the “at least they’re better than Corbyn” storyline!
The Tories may lose 550 seats but they were starting from a high base and would still win comfortably most seats on the night
Many voters will know the candidates as "Bill or Anne", rather than Tory or LD. I know I do.
"Anne" bears no responsibility for Brexit.
I think the second bit matters less: narrative in locals is set by gains/losses rather than absolute seats/votes... because the seats up each year are so unbalanced.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1121855837436297216?s=21
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1121920832245313536?s=21
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1121921021777534976?s=21
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1121921124848349185?s=21
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1121921284638674945?s=21
Wind and nuclear power are producing two-thirds of UK electricity at present.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1121498613753028619
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830?s=20