Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the

24

Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    Scott_P said:
    Surely this is just parliamentary maths and little to do with party direction.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    JackW said:

    Oh dear, all is not well in the arc of rightist twattery.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelRosenYes/status/1117331969325637632

    Who knew the Brazilian president was a member of the UK Labour party (Momentum) ?!?
    They also appear to be back pedalling somewhat on moving their embassy to Jerusalem.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,369
    Mr. Sandpit, my Bottas tip was pre-practice ;)

    I agree with your underlying implication but odds may be better on midfield chaps getting on the podium. Have to see how the numbers stack up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,486
    Meanwhile Richard Corbett, head of the Labour group in the European Parliament elections, says unless Labour commits to a second EU referendum before the elections it risks losing votes to parties who do back a second referendum

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47924023
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.

    That the UK's voters can have a laugh with their vote in the Euro elections just shows how disconnected we are from the EU Project.....
    Speak for yourself! at least 48% of the population are not disconnected.

    Do you reckon the turnout will exceed 48%?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.

    That the UK's voters can have a laugh with their vote in the Euro elections just shows how disconnected we are from the EU Project.....
    Speak for yourself! at least 48% of the population are not disconnected.

    Plenty of the 48% have little time for the EU Project. They just think, on balance, it makes more sense if we stay.
    Or think leaving is to difficult to attempt.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,478

    The Conservatives might yet withdraw from these elections. That’s a better than 12/1 shot.

    Would the bet pay or void in those circs ? No rule 4 in politics ..
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.

    That the UK's voters can have a laugh with their vote in the Euro elections just shows how disconnected we are from the EU Project.....
    Speak for yourself! at least 48% of the population are not disconnected.

    Plenty of the 48% have little time for the EU Project. They just think, on balance, it makes more sense if we stay.
    Or think leaving is to difficult to attempt.
    Or that the division caused by a campaign of xenophobic lies is morally disgusting and far more damaging to the country.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,980
    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    Some people listening to him will have mental illnesses and may not understand he is talking metaphorically. They may go on to shoot and kill someone or many people. That 99.99% of people might understand it metaphorically would not stop it being dangerous and irresponsible. He could have used many other phrases and chose this one.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524

    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    Some people listening to him will have mental illnesses and may not understand he is talking metaphorically. They may go on to shoot and kill someone or many people. That 99.99% of people might understand it metaphorically would not stop it being dangerous and irresponsible. He could have used many other phrases and chose this one.
    You could relate that point to all manner of phrases in everyday use.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,461
    edited April 2019
    OK I'm sold. 12/1 looks good. Unfortunately banned at Lads Go Brokes so will have to hope that BF exchange puts something up.

    My main political betting strategy for now is to short both a 2019 REF2 and JC for next PM.

    Golf tip. Molinari will win the Masters today. 2.9 on exchange is not generous but is fair.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    Roger said:

    Margaret Hodges going to a meeting with Corbyn 'wired' makes Corbyn a much more appealing leader. You know he would neither do that sort of thing himself nor suspect anyone else of doing it. There's something appealing about not suspecting duplicity in a fellow human being even if it turns out to be a naive belief.
    So when an alleged rapist allegedly encourages others to break the law to shine light malfeasance its a good thing, but when a jewish pensioner secretly records a meeting its a bad thing? Jolly good. Thanks for clearing that up.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,980

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    No, it shows the British don't have a serious conservative party. The left and centre are functioning fine: plenty of choices, clear positions, and coherent groups in parliament.
    What do the EPP do that's remotely conservative?
    And how is the centre coherent! They seem split across several different parties, have few positive policies bar fighting/managing the extremists in their parties, and cant or wont work together.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Blue_rog said:

    And in these extraordinary times, any thoughts of a prominent labour party member secretly taping a meeting with the leader and then leaking it to the Times?

    Isn’t Labour in favour of Whistleblowers? Or is that only if they embarrass the USA and not Labour?
    I doubt this is a labour specific thing. No one likes whistleblowers. It's why you need policies promising not to mistreat them. Which arent worth the paper they're written on since the desire to publish will be there and a way will be found
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Scott_P said:
    Who gives shiny shit what Anna Soubry says? She had some imagined clout when she was a Tory threatening to leave. But now she's left.....?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    Roger said:

    Margaret Hodges going to a meeting with Corbyn 'wired' makes Corbyn a much more appealing leader. You know he would neither do that sort of thing himself nor suspect anyone else of doing it. There's something appealing about not suspecting duplicity in a fellow human being even if it turns out to be a naive belief.
    So when an alleged rapist allegedly encourages others to break the law to shine light malfeasance its a good thing, but when a jewish pensioner secretly records a meeting its a bad thing? Jolly good. Thanks for clearing that up.
    I thought it was illegal to secretly tape someone. However shows how low the political class have fallen in UK, they are lower than a snakes belly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    No, it shows the British don't have a serious conservative party. The left and centre are functioning fine: plenty of choices, clear positions, and coherent groups in parliament.
    What do the EPP do that's remotely conservative?
    Do you think the CDU is not a conservative party?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    The Conservatives might yet withdraw from these elections. That’s a better than 12/1 shot.

    I had not thought of that. It would be a very astute move for the Tories in some ways - allows them to show they are committed to Brexit and trash the EU election results in one move.

    In fact it's so astute, there's not a chance Theresa May will do it.
    It was so obviously the best strategy for them I had assumed that is what they would do.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    kinabalu said:

    OK I'm sold. 12/1 looks good. Unfortunately banned at Lads Go Brokes so will have to hope that BF exchange puts something up.

    My main political betting strategy for now is to short both a 2019 REF2 and JC for next PM.

    Golf tip. Molinari will win the Masters today. 2.9 on exchange is not generous but is fair.

    Note to the golf fans - the final round of the Masters has been bought forward by 5 hours due to an incoming storm. Sky coverage starts at 1pm UK time.
    (as anyone who was watching their F1 coverage would already know, as they were making the point every 10 minutes through that broadcast).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Scott_P said:
    Sounds unlikely. There might well be recognition it doesnt work or that it was illogical to come so close to no deal because they wanted to avoid no deal through the backstop which was a big part of why no deal came so close.

    But its politics. The EU have decided that's a red line and while they've shown they will extend rather than force no deal, to change the backstop would be to admit defeat and reopen what they said could not.

    Plus a great many ERGers reluctantly backed the deal in the end even with the backstop. The remaining core I doubt can be persuaded, and the DUP are grievance mongers, nothing more, they will find something else to moan about.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    The Conservatives might yet withdraw from these elections. That’s a better than 12/1 shot.

    I had not thought of that. It would be a very astute move for the Tories in some ways - allows them to show they are committed to Brexit and trash the EU election results in one move.

    In fact it's so astute, there's not a chance Theresa May will do it.
    It was so obviously the best strategy for them I had assumed that is what they would do.
    The one fly in the ointment is that the MEPs who are top of their list in the southern regions, and therefore still in with a chance, may still fancy another term and may believe they have a good chance of getting it.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524

    Scott_P said:
    Who gives shiny shit what Anna Soubry says? She had some imagined clout when she was a Tory threatening to leave. But now she's left.....?
    Maybe Farage should go on tv and say she always looks like she’s enjoying playing with herself. Perfectly acceptable apparently.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629
    TSE = defeatist, like the French in 1940 :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:
    It doesnt really. The lds would never have agreed to provide confidence and supply even if promised heaven on earth. The party has shifted, but let's not pretend the lds calculation would have been different. As paulyork64 notes its a parliamentary maths thing, and a party management issue for the lds.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    Boris Johnson is at risk of losing his seat in the next election after a surge of younger voters in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6920533/Boris-Johnson-risk-losing-seat-election.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524

    Boris Johnson is at risk of losing his seat in the next election after a surge of younger voters in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6920533/Boris-Johnson-risk-losing-seat-election.html

    Stand for The Brexit Party in Thurrock!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds unlikely. There might well be recognition it doesnt work or that it was illogical to come so close to no deal because they wanted to avoid no deal through the backstop which was a big part of why no deal came so close.

    But its politics. The EU have decided that's a red line and while they've shown they will extend rather than force no deal, to change the backstop would be to admit defeat and reopen what they said could not.

    Plus a great many ERGers reluctantly backed the deal in the end even with the backstop. The remaining core I doubt can be persuaded, and the DUP are grievance mongers, nothing more, they will find something else to moan about.
    Its just potential leadership candidates, and those who fancy themselves as kingmakers en route to future office (like IDS), chasing a unicorn in a doomed attempt to escape from the Brexit maze.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
    Yet we know what the membership and most of its mps would prefer. They will listen to the ones shouting the loudest who are the no deal Brexit wing. Even moderate loyalists like BigG admit they are the largest wing of the party.

    It's only the leadership of the party which is seemingly not on board and not even all of that given supposedly Hunt and Javid were on this letter supposed to have been sent round about no deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
    Yet we know what the membership and most of its mps would prefer. They will listen to the ones shouting the loudest who are the no deal Brexit wing. Even moderate loyalists like BigG admit they are the largest wing of the party.

    It's only the leadership of the party which is seemingly not on board and not even all of that given supposedly Hunt and Javid were on this letter supposed to have been sent round about no deal.
    So the Times is quite possibly right that we will see the end of the Tory party as a party of government.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    Following Following @britainelects
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 36% (+1)
    CON: 29% (-6)
    UKIP: 11% (+2)
    LDEM: 8% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 09 - 12 Apr
    Chgs. w/ 29 Mar
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524
    The Brexit Party is a broad church...

    “Remainers too should be deeply alarmed by the behaviour of our MPs in recent months. They should also vote for The Brexit Party.

    Even if they didn't like the referendum result in 2016, they shouldn't be comfortable about the way democracy has been turned on its head.“

    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1114017/brexit-news-nigel-farage-european-elections-express-comment
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    Good thread - quite a few of the Remain disposition were getting very upset with the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation (sic) for having the temerity to cover their launch at all....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
    Yet we know what the membership and most of its mps would prefer. They will listen to the ones shouting the loudest who are the no deal Brexit wing. Even moderate loyalists like BigG admit they are the largest wing of the party.

    It's only the leadership of the party which is seemingly not on board and not even all of that given supposedly Hunt and Javid were on this letter supposed to have been sent round about no deal.
    So the Times is quite possibly right that we will see the end of the Tory party as a party of government.
    I think they will very very likely lose the next election and if they respond badly to that could be out of government for longer than they need to be. They no longer seem to care about winning, they care about fighting themselves for control.

    Its exactly what labour were doing a few years ago, but there Corbyn won the internal battle and the rest came on board at election time. Now theres still squabbles over Brexit and the like but they've discovered how many are willing to fight the party and how many are never going to do so.

    The Tories may have had a few defectors but they have not had their internal fight yet. And holding it during government and Brexit seems much more damaging.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,213

    Scott_P said:
    Who gives shiny shit what Anna Soubry says? She had some imagined clout when she was a Tory threatening to leave. But now she's left.....?
    Yes she’s doing the best for Tory turnout today by saying they are the real Brexit party
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524

    Good thread - quite a few of the Remain disposition were getting very upset with the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation (sic) for having the temerity to cover their launch at all....
    Usual FT bias...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    The Brexit Party is a broad church...

    “Remainers too should be deeply alarmed by the behaviour of our MPs in recent months. They should also vote for The Brexit Party.

    Even if they didn't like the referendum result in 2016, they shouldn't be comfortable about the way democracy has been turned on its head.“

    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1114017/brexit-news-nigel-farage-european-elections-express-comment

    Shouldn't be but mostly are. Leavers didn't want to leave even as people like Ken Clarke voted for it. So why even bother?

    Yes many leavers did too but the people who present themselves as the only true brexiters didn't, and that sticks with people .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044

    Scott_P said:
    Who gives shiny shit what Anna Soubry says? She had some imagined clout when she was a Tory threatening to leave. But now she's left.....?
    Evidently you.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It doesnt really. The lds would never have agreed to provide confidence and supply even if promised heaven on earth. The party has shifted, but let's not pretend the lds calculation would have been different. As paulyork64 notes its a parliamentary maths thing, and a party management issue for the lds.
    The Lib Dems would have been mad to offer support to the Conservatives, given how badly it turned out previously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
    Yet we know what the membership and most of its mps would prefer. They will listen to the ones shouting the loudest who are the no deal Brexit wing. Even moderate loyalists like BigG admit they are the largest wing of the party.

    It's only the leadership of the party which is seemingly not on board and not even all of that given supposedly Hunt and Javid were on this letter supposed to have been sent round about no deal.
    So the Times is quite possibly right that we will see the end of the Tory party as a party of government.
    I think they will very very likely lose the next election and if they respond badly to that could be out of government for longer than they need to be. They no longer seem to care about winning, they care about fighting themselves for control.

    Its exactly what labour were doing a few years ago, but there Corbyn won the internal battle and the rest came on board at election time. Now theres still squabbles over Brexit and the like but they've discovered how many are willing to fight the party and how many are never going to do so.

    The Tories may have had a few defectors but they have not had their internal fight yet. And holding it during government and Brexit seems much more damaging.
    The challenge is to deliver political and electoral reform this time while the Tories are back in the wilderness - either by persuading Labour as a whole, or more likely because Labour falls short and needs other party support to secure office.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    Scott_P said:
    Calamity Cooper: the dolt of a man who made it all possible.
    Cooper far too closely mixes up what he wants to find with what he is finding for a pollster.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    HYUFD said:

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    The Tories are the largest group in the ECR (having been in the EPP previously), the third biggest group in the European Parliament now and Farage leads the EFDD group which has 41 MEPs
    The EPP and PES and ALDE are flags of convenience in the Parliament. They contain parties that have nothing to do with the values that they proclaim.

    The ECR, ENF Greens, and Far Left are the coherent groupings.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Given the labour leadership would be fools to agree a deal without a referendum, and the Tories fools to concede that (whether it's the only way to get Brexit or not it's a bridge too far for the party except for those seeking to remain like Hammond), presumably if there is a plan for one more try of the WA it will be thus:

    1 - Talks break off for good each side saying the other would not do as they demanded, I mean, would not be constructive enough.

    2 - Tories offer WA with Customs Union as it came so close in indicative votes, in the hope that sufficient labour votes come over and not too many Tories stop voting for it as a result.

    This to be followed by Nandy and other Labour MPs saying it doesnt go far enough or the gov cannot be trusted with it, and provokes Tory resignations, and the vote either loses or is pulled.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
    Yet we know what the membership and most of its mps would prefer. They will listen to the ones shouting the loudest who are the no deal Brexit wing. Even moderate loyalists like BigG admit they are the largest wing of the party.

    It's only the leadership of the party which is seemingly not on board and not even all of that given supposedly Hunt and Javid were on this letter supposed to have been sent round about no deal.
    So the Times is quite possibly right that we will see the end of the Tory party as a party of government.
    I think they will very very likely lose the next election and if they respond badly to that could be out of government for longer than they need to be. They no longer seem to care about winning, they care about fighting themselves for control.

    Its exactly what labour were doing a few years ago, but there Corbyn won the internal battle and the rest came on board at election time. Now theres still squabbles over Brexit and the like but they've discovered how many are willing to fight the party and how many are never going to do so.

    The Tories may have had a few defectors but they have not had their internal fight yet. And holding it during government and Brexit seems much more damaging.
    And what comes out of the other side of that battle ?
    A pragmatic coalition of interests seems extraordinarily unlikely.... a party of the ideological right, extremely unattractive.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the LibDems and ChangeUK will tag team for the Euro Elections and then outpoll the Tories in the TSE nightmare scenario?

    Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There .... :smile:

    They don't have the time (or inclination) to form a combined slate.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    David Liddington is a sane voice.

    Obviously no chance of him becoming Leader of the party formerly in power
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    TIMES Leader:

    "Doubling down on their status as a Brexit party may look like a sensible response to the challenge of Mr Farage’s new group, which threatens to siphon away votes on the right, but it is likely to prove a blind alley for the Tories. New polling for the think tank Onward showed that only 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds think that a no-deal Brexit would be good for Britain. The only cohort in which a majority support no deal is those aged above 65. The conclusion seems clear enough. The Tories can either become the party of no-deal Brexit or they can try to connect with younger voters. They can’t do both."
    Yet we know what the membership and most of its mps would prefer. They will listen to the ones shouting the loudest who are the no deal Brexit wing. Even moderate loyalists like BigG admit they are the largest wing of the party.

    It's only the leadership of the party which is seemingly not on board and not even all of that given supposedly Hunt and Javid were on this letter supposed to have been sent round about no deal.
    So the Times is quite possibly right that we will see the end of the Tory party as a party of government.
    I think they will very very likely lose the next election and if they respond badly to that could be out of government for longer than they need to be. They no longer seem to care about winning, they care about fighting themselves for control.

    Its exactly what labour were doing a few years ago, but there Corbyn won the internal battle and the rest came on board at election time. Now theres still squabbles over Brexit and the like but they've discovered how many are willing to fight the party and how many are never going to do so.

    The Tories may have had a few defectors but they have not had their internal fight yet. And holding it during government and Brexit seems much more damaging.
    And what comes out of the other side of that battle ?
    A pragmatic coalition of interests seems extraordinarily unlikely.... a party of the ideological right, extremely unattractive.

    I agree. But that's what they would seem to prefer. Play the long game and hope support will come around just because. Ir hope that Corbyn will be do bad it doesnt matter of they get smashed now.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Some anecdata for you. The informal pro-EU group that formed in my town after the first march has been doing some doorstep work. They don't have any records from 2016 and only one of them has any previous political campaign experience. Reporting that leave is still solid and pretty much in the lead - and no reports of anyone changing their mind in either direction. Not what I wanted to hear but you have to live in the real world. Not many were aware there was a European election on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Clear from what Lidlington is saying that Labour talks won't come to a conclusion before Parliament resumes in late April, and that the government's next move will be to use preference voting to force parliament to settle on some sort of Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    I think that Conservative voters will turn out in large numbers for the Euros, but most of them won't vote Conservative.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,008

    Some anecdata for you. The informal pro-EU group that formed in my town after the first march has been doing some doorstep work. They don't have any records from 2016 and only one of them has any previous political campaign experience. Reporting that leave is still solid and pretty much in the lead - and no reports of anyone changing their mind in either direction. Not what I wanted to hear but you have to live in the real world. Not many were aware there was a European election on.

    Which region is that?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,450
    Always worth bearing in mind that the Tories have achieved a parliamentary majority - and that barely in double figures - in only one election in the last quarter of a century.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    Some anecdata for you. The informal pro-EU group that formed in my town after the first march has been doing some doorstep work. They don't have any records from 2016 and only one of them has any previous political campaign experience. Reporting that leave is still solid and pretty much in the lead - and no reports of anyone changing their mind in either direction. Not what I wanted to hear but you have to live in the real world. Not many were aware there was a European election on.

    Out of touch Liberal elite. Never been more out of touch or Elite.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Barnesian said:

    Some anecdata for you. The informal pro-EU group that formed in my town after the first march has been doing some doorstep work. They don't have any records from 2016 and only one of them has any previous political campaign experience. Reporting that leave is still solid and pretty much in the lead - and no reports of anyone changing their mind in either direction. Not what I wanted to hear but you have to live in the real world. Not many were aware there was a European election on.

    Which region is that?
    Rural south east. Bandit country from a remain point of view.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    kle4 said:

    Given the labour leadership would be fools to agree a deal without a referendum, and the Tories fools to concede that (whether it's the only way to get Brexit or not it's a bridge too far for the party except for those seeking to remain like Hammond), presumably if there is a plan for one more try of the WA it will be thus:

    1 - Talks break off for good each side saying the other would not do as they demanded, I mean, would not be constructive enough.

    2 - Tories offer WA with Customs Union as it came so close in indicative votes, in the hope that sufficient labour votes come over and not too many Tories stop voting for it as a result.

    This to be followed by Nandy and other Labour MPs saying it doesnt go far enough or the gov cannot be trusted with it, and provokes Tory resignations, and the vote either loses or is pulled.

    They are hoping that if they can get Parliament to support a WA+CU exit through a preference exercise, it will be difficult for MPs not to support it when it comes to a yes/no vote. And then hope the PV amendment is defeated with some strong whipping. This may actually work - the biggest risk is hat the scent of Brexit collapsing for the Remain side, and the impending collapse in the Tory party, now makes them (really meaning Labour) more reluctant to vote through a deal than it would have been some months back.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,369
    Mr. Recidivist, interesting. I suspect most people on either side haven't changed their minds, though most will be displeased with the ineptitude of politicians, particularly May/the Government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    Good thread - quite a few of the Remain disposition were getting very upset with the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation (sic) for having the temerity to cover their launch at all....
    It's the same problem the new SDP had in the early 1980s - formed from main party MPs, they have little conception of what it means to campaign as a third party in the British political system.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    Good thread - quite a few of the Remain disposition were getting very upset with the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation (sic) for having the temerity to cover their launch at all....
    If every one hates Farage and Brexit as much as they think, surely it's a good thing to publicise Farage?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,008
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the LibDems and ChangeUK will tag team for the Euro Elections and then outpoll the Tories in the TSE nightmare scenario?

    Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There .... :smile:

    They don't have the time (or inclination) to form a combined slate.
    I have built a D'Hondt model to easily evaluate various scenarios.

    I have used the YouGov regional data. NB Small samples.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 5
    LD 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 4
    Remain 2

    So there is some benefit if they can get their act together.

    EDIT: Ignore! I've used the GE data instead of the Euro data. Will recalculate.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    Given the labour leadership would be fools to agree a deal without a referendum, and the Tories fools to concede that (whether it's the only way to get Brexit or not it's a bridge too far for the party except for those seeking to remain like Hammond), presumably if there is a plan for one more try of the WA it will be thus:

    1 - Talks break off for good each side saying the other would not do as they demanded, I mean, would not be constructive enough.

    2 - Tories offer WA with Customs Union as it came so close in indicative votes, in the hope that sufficient labour votes come over and not too many Tories stop voting for it as a result.

    This to be followed by Nandy and other Labour MPs saying it doesnt go far enough or the gov cannot be trusted with it, and provokes Tory resignations, and the vote either loses or is pulled.

    The best chance of an agreement might come after Theresa May is replaced, since that would remove doubts about her successor reneging. How to reach this happy place is left as an exercise for the reader (rather like the mechanics of Brexit itself were left by Ukip and the ERG).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. Recidivist, interesting. I suspect most people on either side haven't changed their minds, though most will be displeased with the ineptitude of politicians, particularly May/the Government.

    That's true enough. I have been shocked at how ineptly Brexit has been handled. I don't want it to happen, but I'd like to think we could have had it if we had wanted it.
  • I agree with TSE - less than 10% would be a well deserved achievement by the Tories.

    Of course Private Francois and his loony tunes cult will see this outcome as the people agreeing with his belief-based system....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    edited April 2019
    In Francois the BBC presumably thinks it has found its new Farage - telegenic, persuasive, engaging and omnipresent. Just the sort of larger-than-life, tells-it-like-it-is character that its viewers crave.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,486
    Liddington on Marr says as any Deal with Labour will be subject to a vote by Parliament no need for a 'confirmatory lock' on it as the numbers in the Commons will not change unless there is a general election
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,008
    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the LibDems and ChangeUK will tag team for the Euro Elections and then outpoll the Tories in the TSE nightmare scenario?

    Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There .... :smile:

    They don't have the time (or inclination) to form a combined slate.
    I have built a D'Hondt model to easily evaluate various scenarios.

    I have used the YouGov regional data. NB Small samples.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 5
    LD 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 4
    Remain 2

    So there is some benefit if they can get their act together.

    EDIT: Ignore! I've used the GE data instead of the Euro data. Will recalculate.
    Correct data
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 4
    LD 1
    Brexit 1
    Green 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 3
    Remain 3 (LD, Chuk and Green)
    Leave 1 (Brexit and UKIP)
  • Just in case anybody hasn't caught up with Fleabag series 2.....

    I have binge watched all 6 episodes. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant.......

    Correct. Also if English Lit students could study a TV prog then this one would offer so much analysis, brilliantly acted, funny but powerful etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,486
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Not entirely, 27% of 18 to 24s voted Leave and 38% of 25 to 34s and 48% of 35 to 44s and 56% of 45 to 54s, rather more than the 6 per cent of 18-24-year-olds and 18 per cent of 25-49-year-olds who think that a No Deal Brexit would be good for Britain



    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,008
    For the South East, "tag teams" seems to make no difference.

    Without tag teams
    Con 2
    Lab 2
    LD 1
    UKIP 1
    Brexit 2
    Green 1
    Chuk 1


    With tag teams
    Con 2
    Lab 2
    Remain 3
    Leave 3
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    edited April 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    The former MP for Stroud, Neil Carmichael, has also defected to TIG/CHUK.

    https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/former-stroud-mp-defects-conservative-2758095
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    In Francois the BBC presumably thinks it has found its new Farage - telegenic, persuasive, engaging and omnipresent. Just the sort of larger-than-life, tells-it-like-it-is character that its viewers crave.

    Or their new Benny Hill...

    The last chance of a different choice disappeared when the attempt to remove Mrs May in a confidence vote of Tory MPs was defeated last December. Her fiercest opponents couldn’t even get that bit of plotting right, meaning she was, under party rules, guaranteed a year without further challenge. Though that hasn’t stopped Mark Francois MP, the Benny Hill of Brexit (the most notable difference between the two men is that the late comedian Francois so curiously resembles did at least intend to look ridiculous).

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-on-a-plate-and-the-tories-blew-it-629q5spq3
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,984

    Just in case anybody hasn't caught up with Fleabag series 2.....

    I have binge watched all 6 episodes. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant.......

    Correct. Also if English Lit students could study a TV prog then this one would offer so much analysis, brilliantly acted, funny but powerful etc.
    It was better than average but no more. The “profound, genius” ending was meh.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Or Little Englanders, as David Cameron noted...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    The former MP for Stroud, Neil Carmichael, has also defected to TIG/CHUK.

    https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/former-stroud-mp-defects-conservative-2758095
    Yes he has a piece In the independent about his decision
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    edited April 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    edited April 2019
    On topic, I think that on balance the Conservatives will poll above 10% but 12-1 is a good bet.

    At present, Lab, Lib Dem, UKIP, Brexit supporters all seem to have similar levels of likelihood to vote for the Euros, but the Conservatives lag them. But, large numbers of Conservatives have postal votes, (turnout among postal voters is always high) so they'll probably still use them, even if they vote UKIP/Brexit.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,486
    edited April 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the LibDems and ChangeUK will tag team for the Euro Elections and then outpoll the Tories in the TSE nightmare scenario?

    Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There .... :smile:

    They don't have the time (or inclination) to form a combined slate.
    I have built a D'Hondt model to easily evaluate various scenarios.

    I have used the YouGov regional data. NB Small samples.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 5
    LD 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 4
    Remain 2

    So there is some benefit if they can get their act together.

    EDIT: Ignore! I've used the GE data instead of the Euro data. Will recalculate.
    Correct data
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 4
    LD 1
    Brexit 1
    Green 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 3
    Remain 3 (LD, Chuk and Green)
    Leave 1 (Brexit and UKIP)
    Based on that polling 13% of 2017 Tories now back the Brexit Party, more than the 3% who have switched to Labour and the 4% who have switched to the LDs and the 3% who have switched to CUK combined (indeed 4% of 2017 Labour voters and 9% of 2017 LDs have actually switched to the Tories).

    Add in the 8% of 2017 Tories who have switched to UKIP and 21% of 2017 Tory voters are now backing Eurosceptic parties, whether the Tories can win them back or not could be pivotal to determining who wins the next general election.


    For the European elections a full 28% of 2017 Tories will back the Brexit Party and 23% UKIP compared to just 38% who will stick with the Tories showing 51% of 2017 Tories will cast a protest vote for a Eurosceptic party even if most of them will return to the Tories for the general election


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,122
    Chris said:

    Always worth bearing in mind that the Tories have achieved a parliamentary majority - and that barely in double figures - in only one election in the last quarter of a century.

    True, but you are cherry picking the cut off date. It's five times if you use the last forty years.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,122
    eristdoof said:

    Chris said:

    Always worth bearing in mind that the Tories have achieved a parliamentary majority - and that barely in double figures - in only one election in the last quarter of a century.

    True, but you are cherry picking the cut off date. It's five times if you use the last forty years.
    Another meaningless cherry picked fact. In those forty years 3 Conservative leaders have won an overall majority but only 1 Labour leader.
  • Scott_P said:

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
    Oi, I wear Hugo Boss.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Theyve become utter wingnuts. Their treatment of those with disability alone is enough to not consider voting for them. Nobody else to vote for either. I want Brexit out the way so I can see what the tiggers offer domestically. Labour are just idiotic student anti semites with no idea about the reality of the working class and a tendency to wreck for the sake of it. Lib dems are stale and dying, the greens are attractive as a protest but batshit crazy and I'm not a Scot or Welsh. And im not voting for Farage or the Tommy lovers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
  • Scott_P said:

    In Francois the BBC presumably thinks it has found its new Farage - telegenic, persuasive, engaging and omnipresent. Just the sort of larger-than-life, tells-it-like-it-is character that its viewers crave.

    Or their new Benny Hill...

    The last chance of a different choice disappeared when the attempt to remove Mrs May in a confidence vote of Tory MPs was defeated last December. Her fiercest opponents couldn’t even get that bit of plotting right, meaning she was, under party rules, guaranteed a year without further challenge. Though that hasn’t stopped Mark Francois MP, the Benny Hill of Brexit (the most notable difference between the two men is that the late comedian Francois so curiously resembles did at least intend to look ridiculous).

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-on-a-plate-and-the-tories-blew-it-629q5spq3
    I like that one of his nicknames is Pot Noodle .... seems appropriate for many reasons (not just cos he claimed one on expenses)
  • Scott_P said:

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
    Oi, I wear Hugo Boss.
    We're all scouse fans today!
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524

    Scott_P said:

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
    Oi, I wear Hugo Boss.
    Is the Hugo Boss reference because of Nazi uniforms?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    Strangely I don't remember lefties describing Stephen Dorrell as 'sane and sensible' when he was a cabinet minister in the 1990s.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,486
    edited April 2019

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    More worrying for the Tories is the fact that 21% of their 2017 vote has now defected to the Brexit Party or UKIP than the fact a diehard Remainer like Dorrell seems to think even May's Brexit Deal is 'a lurch to the right'
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873
    Scott_P said:

    In Francois the BBC presumably thinks it has found its new Farage - telegenic, persuasive, engaging and omnipresent. Just the sort of larger-than-life, tells-it-like-it-is character that its viewers crave.

    Or their new Benny Hill...

    The last chance of a different choice disappeared when the attempt to remove Mrs May in a confidence vote of Tory MPs was defeated last December. Her fiercest opponents couldn’t even get that bit of plotting right, meaning she was, under party rules, guaranteed a year without further challenge. Though that hasn’t stopped Mark Francois MP, the Benny Hill of Brexit (the most notable difference between the two men is that the late comedian Francois so curiously resembles did at least intend to look ridiculous).

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-on-a-plate-and-the-tories-blew-it-629q5spq3
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEj1h7BC2b4
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    Strangely I don't remember lefties describing Stephen Dorrell as 'sane and sensible' when he was a cabinet minister in the 1990s.
    Wasn't he the first London Mayor candidate for the blues?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    Strangely I don't remember lefties describing Stephen Dorrell as 'sane and sensible' when he was a cabinet minister in the 1990s.
    Wasn't he the first London Mayor candidate for the blues?
    That was Steve Norris I think you'll find.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609
    edited April 2019
    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,461

    Just in case anybody hasn't caught up with Fleabag series 2.....

    I have binge watched all 6 episodes. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant.......

    Yes, very smart and funny. Really liked both series. An effective riposte to the idea that women can't do comedy.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    Strangely I don't remember lefties describing Stephen Dorrell as 'sane and sensible' when he was a cabinet minister in the 1990s.
    Wasn't he the first London Mayor candidate for the blues?
    That was Steve Norris I think you'll find.
    Ah yes, many thanks
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,914
    kinabalu said:

    Just in case anybody hasn't caught up with Fleabag series 2.....

    I have binge watched all 6 episodes. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant.......

    Yes, very smart and funny. Really liked both series. An effective riposte to the idea that women can't do comedy.
    MV2.5 killed that notion stone dead.
This discussion has been closed.