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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election
The YouGov poll published yesterday showed the Conservatives polling 16% in the European election, Opinium had the Conservatives on 17% so it is worth analysing this market from Ladbrokes on what vote share the Conservatives will achieve. I’ll explain why I think the 12/1 is the best option.
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Essentially no one has a reason to vote for Tories at this point.
What number is fatal for Mrs May ? Sub 15% ?
Labour isn't much better wrt that crisis (and is hideous in other ways), but they somewhat get a pass as they're not the government.
We are being overtaken by hatred on all sides, and people who pretend to be reasonable excusing and defending hatred - both Labour with anti-Semitism and the Brexiteers defending general anti-foreigner sentiments.
Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
No Safety Car, 2.6
Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
(Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)
The one flaw in the polls is that they are asking everyone, at a time when many people have been following the news. Yet we know the Euros is a low turnout election - and although I think turnout may rise this time, it's still an election where the majority won't bother.
So turnout will be skewed, and skewed towards the type of people who always vote: i.e. older people, and people with standing Postal Votes. Surely there will be at least 10% of these who will vote Tory our of habit; strange as it may seem, not everyone will have been following the news, and there are a lot of people who don't care that much about Brexit and a lot of people who feel sorry for the PM. I would be amazed if my mother doesn't vote Tory, as she always does.
So I would go for 10-20%, which still looks attractive even at Evens.
Me thinks young TSE has overindulged on the elderflower wine after being released from an overnight stay in the PB padded cell. The poor fellow intoned yesterday evening that there was some merit to the political existence of Boris Johnston !! .... fortunately the men in white coats were on scene with alacrity
Rumour also has it that TSE has traded in his beloved red shoes for a pair of vegan sandals from a secret source in Bedford. Likely a load of cobblers ....
Developing story ....
I think TSE would be right on male votes, but his understanding of [some] female voters is lacking. They may still back May as relatively the most adult politician available (in their view, if not mine).
1. 10% is a hellalow figure. Even the LibDems usually get there. So, things would have to get real bad for the Conservative Party to get there.
2. There's not really that much enthusiasm for the alternatives. UKIP? Bunch of nutters. Brexit Party? Bunch of drunk nutters. Labour Party? Bunch of antisemitic nutters. Etc.
3. There's rather more sympathy for Mrs May out there than people realise.
4. It is possible - but by no means certain - that those who wish us to Leave the EU will choose to boycott these elections.
So, 12-1? No, I'd need 30-1.
If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.
https://twitter.com/hadleyfreeman/status/1117318018588131328?s=21
However time for a lovely story in these times:
My grandson (10) was asked to bring a £1 into school last week for an Easter egg competition.
When he arrived at school one of his friends tearfully commented he had not got a £1. Unhesitatingly my grandson gave him his £1 and said he did not mind if he did not win an Easter egg.
His teacher on hearing the story told him and his class he would be given a free entry for his kindness
As it so happens his friend actually won the two Easter eggs and on winning turned to my grandson and said "lets have one each'
What an example to all of us, and especially the politicians who are supposed to serve us
Hopefully betfair put up some markets soon, would love to be able to lay 20-30% close to evens.
Really? But what if Brexit were never the goal but merely a means to an end? Perhaps the actual goal is to realign the right, cast off the One Nation wing and form the mirror image of a Momentum led Labour Party on the right. A Farage led Tory party is no more outlandish than a Corbyn leadership was five years ago.
If a schism were the objective, the actions of the ERG ultras, the UKIP insurgency and a renewed threat from right (The Brexit Party) to whom MPs can threaten to defect all make sense. All supercharged by a betrayal myth deselecting blame towards May, Grieve, Boles etc.
Edit: meant to say deflecting blame, but autocorrected to deselecting, spooky.
Hamilton’s set of mediums were used in qualifying; Bottas’ are new. Will it make any difference ?
Chance of FLAP, though.
I think it is where we are heading and probably where we need to get to, let the country have three choices, corbyns left, the centre, and a nationalist right. Hopefully we would then choose to build upon what we have rather than becoming Venezuela or attempting to return to the 1950s.
Success of the EU project risked the old party’s survival. You can see Brexit as the defence response of the old system and vested interests.
That would mean a Remain Alliance list would require registering a party, a level of organisation that ChangeUK are only just in time to make, but would be too late for a United Front of All Remain.
And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.
A red race for me, although qualifying was green, and Mr. Sandpit's early tip came off.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRosenYes/status/1117331969325637632
http://www.business.illinois.edu/broker/twocows.htm
Not a bad race, with lots of strategy, but not the classic F1000 the promotors were hoping for.
But I wonder if a better solution might not be to force the ERG loons to pay the cost of campaigning. That might finally persuade the useless bastards to support the deal...
In fact it's so astute, there's not a chance Theresa May will do it.
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1116725533092515841?s=21
Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?
The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
'Terrible news that individuals have resorted to violence but no surprise. Events like these will be the Remainer legacy.'
Also, a flabby 50 odd year smoker with a bad back isn't best placed for a spot of armed insurrection.
Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There ....
It's a view...
Race was red, but the weekend green, so can't be too grumpy. My prediction about Renault getting points or a DNF proved accurate.
Comedy circuit Azerbaijan is up next.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/neo-nazi-plotted-murder-of-labour-mp-and-detective-to-cover-up-his-paedophilia-1.482465
If he had said he wanted to chop up a particular female politician and put her in his freezer I would agree he’d gone way, way too far
The vast majority of those who voted against the deal were Remainers. The ERG's voting habits shouldn't be ignored, but nor should their importance be overblown. Ignoring the 90% or so of MPs who voted against the deal, and who simply don't want us to leave, is daft.
It should probably be 5/1 or 6/1, so this is value.
How sad then to read a prominent Brexiteer in these parts on social media yesterday referring to a Remain supporter as “you mong”... very sad.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-post-race-analysis-2019.html
I have binge watched all 6 episodes. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant.......
Next race around the streets of Baku is always a good one - bet on the Williamses for points, several safety cars and lots of overtaking!
Ferrari are getting laughed at for their strategy today.
https://twitter.com/harrismonkey/status/1117320026078494720