This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.
Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.
Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?
Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.
A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.
In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.
What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
She is the leader of the Conservative party and only PM because of their support.
She had to create a deal around their and the DUPs support.
She failed.
And failed again.
Until the Con party throw her out for failure - and probably Hammond too - they cannot recover.
The penny needs to drop soon for wets - unless remaining in the EU is more important than who runs the Uk...
Perhaps you could reveal what deal would have got a majority in parliament ?
The one that the Labour and Conservative Parties agreed between themselves in the light of the referendum result shortly after the result was delivered. That was pretty much the only way a Brexit that was going to stick was going to happen.
Relatedly, Change Uk should abandon that ridiculous name which sounds like it was dreamed up by a committee, and just call themselves TIG, or colloquially, Tiggers.
Hmm, much as I'd love TSE to be right, I'm not convinced. Seems to me there's still a hardcore of oldies who vote in every election, and who are pretty dyed-in-the-wool Conservative.
Remember the Newport West byelection was pretty solid for the Tories. The fact it was in Wales might have skewed that result a bit (after all, it was as much a mid-term byelection for the Welsh Labour government as it was for the Westminster Tories), but it does make me fear the Tory vote is holding up better than the polls suggest.
Though Newport would have seen a large proportion of the vote being postal, and May set off the IED under the Conservative bus in the last couple of days of the campaign. So the poor but not dire Newport result may have flattered the Tories.
I am rather gloomy about the prospects for this country this morning.
I voted against Brexit because I saw:
- a long term economic hit - a collapse in British influence in Europe, and a related decline in global standing. - the emboldening of xenophobic sentiment - a collapse in British governance abilities - increased independence sentiment in Northern Ireland and Scotland - an increase in the odds of a Corbyn government - a likely focus on Brexit at the expense of other policy areas - a complete disconnect between Brexit and the actual underlying issues facing the country.
I have been wrong about some of the detail, but three years on I appear to have been right about the big stuff.
Look on the bright side, you can always bugger off to the land of Jacinta.
Not an easy option for me unless I fancy Invercargill!
That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
The weakness in this analysis (apart from dismissing CUK, although correct to identify its too soon to draw any conclusions) is that it is idly assumed that voting Green will be seen as an explicitly anti-Brexit vote. There is no doubting that the Greens themselves are very anti-Brexit, but because there are other good reasons to vote Green, I don't think that Green gains will be seen by the media as rejecting Brexit as against supporting Green Party policies on the environment or simply a rejection of the two larger parties.
I can see the media narrative being UKIP+Brexit v LibDem+CUK, with Labour's position depending on whether they come out unambiguously for a referendum. The Greens will be a side issue. If this is right, then advising potential LibDem or CUK supporters to vote tactically for the Greens would be a mistake.
That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
I haven’t read the article, but even if tactical voting made little difference, the country needs centrists (TIG, LDs, Moderate Lab, Greens) to make common cause right now.
There is no other game in town apart from the Euro elections, and they represent a potential narrative shifter.
I think it’s a bit more complicated than that . They’d have to form a new party to fight under one banner with the Electoral Commission. The nomination lists close on Monday and it’s not definite the EC would even clear a new party in time for the EU elections . If they were going to do that they needed to start weeks ago if not months .
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
Labour 26% Brexit Party 24% Tories 20% Greens 12% Lib Dems 7% UKIP 4% CUK 2%
I think the Greens will mop up the disaffected Labour/"Remain" votes. The Lib Dems' problem is IMO they'll be seen as part of the Westminster mess over the past couple of months. On top of that, since long before Brexit, the Greens have always been a certain type of Labour voter's choice of 'fun' vote for election as consequence-free as the Euros.
That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
I haven’t read the article, but even if tactical voting made little difference, the country needs centrists (TIG, LDs, Moderate Lab, Greens) to make common cause right now.
There is no other game in town apart from the Euro elections, and they represent a potential narrative shifter.
Another important reason is that any of those groups need to work with others they disagree with to deliver their desired outcomes. If they cannot even work together with those they broadly agree with it strongly re-enforces the majority view that they are a wasted vote.
Relatedly, Change Uk should abandon that ridiculous name which sounds like it was dreamed up by a committee, and just call themselves TIG, or colloquially, Tiggers.
Orange branding with black stripes.
Own the fucking nickname for Christ’s sake.
I agree the name is a mistake (potentially an existential one), since they have yet to stake out a fully fleshed programme of political reform, and are going to struggle to convince people they offer much change in other areas such as the economy, housing or the environment. It seems as if some market research has identified that poeple want change, so they thought this would be a good name to choose.
If they really want to change politics, they should be championing electoral co-operation with other centrist parties, as the Greens have tried to do. But it seems CUK has set its face against doing so.
They also appear to have the problem that a fair few former Labour and Tory MPs are coming out of the woodwork applying to be CUk Euro-candidates. Putting up political retreads, particularly MPs who lost their seats and fancy another ride on the train, won't sit happily with their name or message. At least the ones in parliament have clearly put their careers on the line because of their belief that things need to change. Putting up a slate of rejected Tory and Labour politicians for the Euro elections won't do them any favours.
That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
I haven’t read the article, but even if tactical voting made little difference, the country needs centrists (TIG, LDs, Moderate Lab, Greens) to make common cause right now.
There is no other game in town apart from the Euro elections, and they represent a potential narrative shifter.
Another important reason is that any of those groups need to work with others they disagree with to deliver their desired outcomes. If they cannot even work together with those they broadly agree with it strongly re-enforces the majority view that they are a wasted vote.
Exactly.
I’d expect a common launch and set of Euro policies, joint campaigning, and a voting guide region by region.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I suspect Boris's call for Hard Brexit was done under the assumption that something else would be in place by the time he took over, allowing him to forget Brexit and move on. If it's still a burning issue when he becomes PM, Boris will bottle Hard Brexit and try to go with some variant of Theresa's Deal, if not Theresa's Deal wholly unaltered.
That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
The weakness in this analysis (apart from dismissing CUK, although correct to identify its too soon to draw any conclusions) is that it is idly assumed that voting Green will be seen as an explicitly anti-Brexit vote. There is no doubting that the Greens themselves are very anti-Brexit, but because there are other good reasons to vote Green, I don't think that Green gains will be seen by the media as rejecting Brexit as against supporting Green Party policies on the environment or simply a rejection of the two larger parties.
I can see the media narrative being UKIP+Brexit v LibDem+CUK, with Labour's position depending on whether they come out unambiguously for a referendum. The Greens will be a side issue. If this is right, then advising potential LibDem or CUK supporters to vote tactically for the Greens would be a mistake.
The author acknowledged that their assumptions are controversial and that the Green call in Yorkshire and East Midlands is a close call. Personally I'd vote LibDem whatever region I was in. I'm in London so the LibDem call is obvious. I think we'll get one seat. And so will the Greens. It's possible that CHUK will get a third seat but tactical voting won't increase the number of remain seats. It will be 2 or 3 whatever.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I would have thought given recent events either Raab or Boris succeeding May is considerably less likely. And even if they did I doubt it would make much difference. Leaver trust in the Tory Party has long been strained, even with Tory Leave Mps, and now May has destroyed it entirely. I’m not sure PM Boris could recover things now, even if he did go full-on leave, which I doubt. He’d far more likely push for some compromise like May anyway.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Hampered by FPTP, in 1993 a group of NZ parties got together to create “The Alliance”.
It was a federation of a leftwing Labour break off, a Maori sovereignty party, the Greens, a kind of one-nation Conservative party, and a “social credit” party.
They managed to score some decent electoral breakthroughs until a change in the political system and culture rendered their alliance unnecessary.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I suspect Boris's call for Hard Brexit was done under the assumption that something else would be in place by the time he took over, allowing him to forget Brexit and move on. If it's still a burning issue when he becomes PM, Boris will bottle Hard Brexit and try to go with some variant of Theresa's Deal, if not Theresa's Deal wholly unaltered.
Agreed and bizarrely he may even be able to sell it to the no dealers! Whoever leads the tory party will have to pivot to either compromise or a 2nd referendum to achieve brexit.
Labour 26% Brexit Party 24% Tories 20% Greens 12% Lib Dems 7% UKIP 4% CUK 2%
I think the Greens will mop up the disaffected Labour/"Remain" votes. The Lib Dems' problem is IMO they'll be seen as part of the Westminster mess over the past couple of months. On top of that, since long before Brexit, the Greens have always been a certain type of Labour voter's choice of 'fun' vote for election as consequence-free as the Euros.
Surely "the Westminster mess" is owned completely by the Tories.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
Labour 26% Brexit Party 24% Tories 20% Greens 12% Lib Dems 7% UKIP 4% CUK 2%
I think the Greens will mop up the disaffected Labour/"Remain" votes. The Lib Dems' problem is IMO they'll be seen as part of the Westminster mess over the past couple of months. On top of that, since long before Brexit, the Greens have always been a certain type of Labour voter's choice of 'fun' vote for election as consequence-free as the Euros.
Surely "the Westminster mess" is owned completely by the Tories.
They're seen as the worst offenders, but I think "Westminster"/"the Establishment" are collectively getting some blame, and Labour and the Lib Dems (and the CUKs/Tiggers, to the extent people are aware of them) are going to be both seen as part of that.
Best parallel to the current situation is probably the expenses scandal, where people bypassed the Lib Dems and went straight to UKIP, the Greens or the BNP for protest votes, since they were all more obviously outsiders than the LDs.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I would have thought given recent events either Raab or Boris succeeding May is considerably less likely. And even if they did I doubt it would make much difference. Leaver trust in the Tory Party has long been strained, even with Tory Leave Mps, and now May has destroyed it entirely. I’m not sure PM Boris could recover things now, even if he did go full-on leave, which I doubt. He’d far more likely push for some compromise like May anyway.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
'Leaver trust?' The Conservative Party has destroyed itself by pandering to Leavers' impossible demands. Whatever the value of 'Leaver trust' is, the price is too damned high.
I am rather gloomy about the prospects for this country this morning.
I voted against Brexit because I saw:
- a long term economic hit - a collapse in British influence in Europe, and a related decline in global standing. - the emboldening of xenophobic sentiment - a collapse in British governance abilities - increased independence sentiment in Northern Ireland and Scotland - an increase in the odds of a Corbyn government - a likely focus on Brexit at the expense of other policy areas - a complete disconnect between Brexit and the actual underlying issues facing the country.
I have been wrong about some of the detail, but three years on I appear to have been right about the big stuff.
I thought the same, and voted the same way on that basis. We've been proven tragically right, but there's no need to pat ourselves on the back too much - this outcome was completely obvious to anyone with functioning critical faculties ... or so I thought, anyway.
That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
The weakness in this analysis (apart from dismissing CUK, although correct to identify its too soon to draw any conclusions) is that it is idly assumed that voting Green will be seen as an explicitly anti-Brexit vote. There is no doubting that the Greens themselves are very anti-Brexit, but because there are other good reasons to vote Green, I don't think that Green gains will be seen by the media as rejecting Brexit as against supporting Green Party policies on the environment or simply a rejection of the two larger parties.
I can see the media narrative being UKIP+Brexit v LibDem+CUK, with Labour's position depending on whether they come out unambiguously for a referendum. The Greens will be a side issue. If this is right, then advising potential LibDem or CUK supporters to vote tactically for the Greens would be a mistake.
The author acknowledged that their assumptions are controversial and that the Green call in Yorkshire and East Midlands is a close call. Personally I'd vote LibDem whatever region I was in. I'm in London so the LibDem call is obvious. I think we'll get one seat. And so will the Greens. It's possible that CHUK will get a third seat but tactical voting won't increase the number of remain seats. It will be 2 or 3 whatever.
I am prepared to vote LibDem or TIG depending on who the candidates at the top of their list are. Media reports that various former Tory and Labour MPs who were rejected by their constituents are seeking prime positions on the TIG list doesn't fill me with confidence. If they can't offer any real change and become simply a vehicle for failed major party politicians to resurrect their careers, I will stick with the LibDems.
I am rather gloomy about the prospects for this country this morning.
I voted against Brexit because I saw:
- a long term economic hit - a collapse in British influence in Europe, and a related decline in global standing. - the emboldening of xenophobic sentiment - a collapse in British governance abilities - increased independence sentiment in Northern Ireland and Scotland - an increase in the odds of a Corbyn government - a likely focus on Brexit at the expense of other policy areas - a complete disconnect between Brexit and the actual underlying issues facing the country.
I have been wrong about some of the detail, but three years on I appear to have been right about the big stuff.
Most of what you list there is happening because of Brexit being prevented or delayed rather than because of it happening. The economic hit is happening because of the uncertainty being generated by the failure of politicians to actually enact Brexit. This is also making people angrier and resulting in more xenophobic sentiment and is certainly directly leading to a collapse in the British governance abilities and making a Corbyn Government more likely. And of course it is taking up all Governmental time leading to lack of focus on other areas of Government.
All this could have been avoided with a timely, well organised Brexit but of course that needed Parliament to stop playing politics for their own gain (both sides) and trying to prevent Brexit happening.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I would have thought given recent events either Raab or Boris succeeding May is considerably less likely. And even if they did I doubt it would make much difference. Leaver trust in the Tory Party has long been strained, even with Tory Leave Mps, and now May has destroyed it entirely. I’m not sure PM Boris could recover things now, even if he did go full-on leave, which I doubt. He’d far more likely push for some compromise like May anyway.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
'Leaver trust?' The Conservative Party has destroyed itself by pandering to Leavers' impossible demands. Whatever the value of 'Leaver trust' is, the price is too damned high.
The Tory party was on 40% of the vote just a month ago.
If the Tories do not listen to their voters then it will have to do without their votes.
Ask yourself, is staying in the EU worth PM Corbyn?
Labour 26% Brexit Party 24% Tories 20% Greens 12% Lib Dems 7% UKIP 4% CUK 2%
I think the Greens will mop up the disaffected Labour/"Remain" votes. The Lib Dems' problem is IMO they'll be seen as part of the Westminster mess over the past couple of months. On top of that, since long before Brexit, the Greens have always been a certain type of Labour voter's choice of 'fun' vote for election as consequence-free as the Euros.
I would be surprised if the Brexit/UKIP split resolves as clearly as that - remembering that few people follow politics as closely as we do. I suspect Farage will manage to outpoll ukip, but not by a ratio of six times the vote. The Tories will be lucky to get 20%; they are left essentially with the blue rosette donkey voters and sympathy votes for Mrs M. If the LibDems don't top 10% that would be a very poor result for them. I 'd expect them to be closer to 15% than 10%, especially in the South. For CUK it's simply too early to say.
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I would have thought given recent events either Raab or Boris succeeding May is considerably less likely. And even if they did I doubt it would make much difference. Leaver trust in the Tory Party has long been strained, even with Tory Leave Mps, and now May has destroyed it entirely. I’m not sure PM Boris could recover things now, even if he did go full-on leave, which I doubt. He’d far more likely push for some compromise like May anyway.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
'Leaver trust?' The Conservative Party has destroyed itself by pandering to Leavers' impossible demands. Whatever the value of 'Leaver trust' is, the price is too damned high.
The Tory party was on 40% of the vote just a month ago.
If the Tories do not listen to their voters then it will have to do without their votes.
Ask yourself, is staying in the EU worth PM Corbyn?
'Their voters' also include remainers of various ilks. Or at least, it used to before the current madness, and needs to in order to get a majority in the future.
Labour 26% Brexit Party 24% Tories 20% Greens 12% Lib Dems 7% UKIP 4% CUK 2%
I think the Greens will mop up the disaffected Labour/"Remain" votes. The Lib Dems' problem is IMO they'll be seen as part of the Westminster mess over the past couple of months. On top of that, since long before Brexit, the Greens have always been a certain type of Labour voter's choice of 'fun' vote for election as consequence-free as the Euros.
Surely "the Westminster mess" is owned completely by the Tories.
They're seen as the worst offenders, but I think "Westminster"/"the Establishment" are collectively getting some blame, and Labour and the Lib Dems (and the CUKs/Tiggers, to the extent people are aware of them) are going to be both seen as part of that.
Best parallel to the current situation is probably the expenses scandal, where people bypassed the Lib Dems and went straight to UKIP, the Greens or the BNP for protest votes, since they were all more obviously outsiders than the LDs.
Completely agree. Remember here on PB, a lot more people are tied to parties than the average member of the public, and therefore find it harder to believe people intensely dislike them now. I have been hoping for the fall of the big two parties for years, let's hope this is the moment.
(Although I suppose in saying that last part, I am betraying a a bias against the establishment as strong as the party members are to it)
I am rather gloomy about the prospects for this country this morning.
I voted against Brexit because I saw:
- a long term economic hit - a collapse in British influence in Europe, and a related decline in global standing. - the emboldening of xenophobic sentiment - a collapse in British governance abilities - increased independence sentiment in Northern Ireland and Scotland - an increase in the odds of a Corbyn government - a likely focus on Brexit at the expense of other policy areas - a complete disconnect between Brexit and the actual underlying issues facing the country.
I have been wrong about some of the detail, but three years on I appear to have been right about the big stuff.
Most of what you list there is happening because of Brexit being prevented or delayed rather than because of it happening. The economic hit is happening because of the uncertainty being generated by the failure of politicians to actually enact Brexit. This is also making people angrier and resulting in more xenophobic sentiment and is certainly directly leading to a collapse in the British governance abilities and making a Corbyn Government more likely. And of course it is taking up all Governmental time leading to lack of focus on other areas of Government.
All this could have been avoided with a timely, well organised Brexit but of course that needed Parliament to stop playing politics for their own gain (both sides) and trying to prevent Brexit happening.
Up until last November May and the EU were still hammering out the deal, but many of those points were still happening
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
Ask yourself, is staying in the EU worth PM Corbyn?
Is leaving worth PM Corbyn?
That's a more likely result
No, it really isn’t a more likely result. Should we actually leave remainers will turn on him with all their righteous fury for not being a remainer. It’s already starting with him engaging in May’s talks.
Good to see Sue Hayman at the top table there - in my opinion one of the best of the Opposition front bench, but hitherto overshadowed by others. A bit like Gove, she's actually interested in her brief and works hard to come up with viable proposals.
Indeed - I'm still instinctively suspicious, but all the signs are they're treating it seriously. Awfully hard to walk back when you've consistently made positive noises, and there genuinely isn't any real sticking point for either side.
Good to see Sue Hayman at the top table there - in my opinion one of the best of the Opposition front bench, but hitherto overshadowed by others. A bit like Gove, she's actually interested in her brief and works hard to come up with viable proposals.
Indeed - I'm still instinctively suspicious, but all the signs are they're treating it seriously. Awfully hard to walk back when you've consistently made positive noises, and there genuinely isn't any real sticking point for either side.
There are some very real sticking points, they just happen to be about political cover.
Labour 26% Brexit Party 24% Tories 20% Greens 12% Lib Dems 7% UKIP 4% CUK 2%
I think the Greens will mop up the disaffected Labour/"Remain" votes. The Lib Dems' problem is IMO they'll be seen as part of the Westminster mess over the past couple of months. On top of that, since long before Brexit, the Greens have always been a certain type of Labour voter's choice of 'fun' vote for election as consequence-free as the Euros.
Surely "the Westminster mess" is owned completely by the Tories.
They're seen as the worst offenders, but I think "Westminster"/"the Establishment" are collectively getting some blame, and Labour and the Lib Dems (and the CUKs/Tiggers, to the extent people are aware of them) are going to be both seen as part of that.
Best parallel to the current situation is probably the expenses scandal, where people bypassed the Lib Dems and went straight to UKIP, the Greens or the BNP for protest votes, since they were all more obviously outsiders than the LDs.
Completely agree. Remember here on PB, a lot more people are tied to parties than the average member of the public, and therefore find it harder to believe people intensely dislike them now. I have been hoping for the fall of the big two parties for years, let's hope this is the moment.
(Although I suppose in saying that last part, I am betraying a a bias against the establishment as strong as the party members are to it)
I think it'll take a lot more than changing out the main two parties to get rid of establishment control.
In fact I don't really see how you can want that kind of change and not be left wing. As long as money is the main factor behind power and as long as people who are rich stay rich or get richer, it'll always be the same people in power.
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
Ask yourself, is staying in the EU worth PM Corbyn?
Is leaving worth PM Corbyn?
That's a more likely result
No, it really isn’t a more likely result. Should we actually leave remainers will turn on him with all their righteous fury for not being a remainer. It’s already starting with him engaging in May’s talks.
Agreed. Although a pretty likely path to Remain involves a second ref, and I doubt he'd give the full-hearted support that the Remainers would demand, so that would be problematic for him too
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I would have thought given recent events either Raab or Boris succeeding May is considerably less likely. And even if they did I doubt it would make much difference. Leaver trust in the Tory Party has long been strained, even with Tory Leave Mps, and now May has destroyed it entirely. I’m not sure PM Boris could recover things now, even if he did go full-on leave, which I doubt. He’d far more likely push for some compromise like May anyway.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
'Leaver trust?' The Conservative Party has destroyed itself by pandering to Leavers' impossible demands. Whatever the value of 'Leaver trust' is, the price is too damned high.
The Tory party was on 40% of the vote just a month ago.
If the Tories do not listen to their voters then it will have to do without their votes.
Ask yourself, is staying in the EU worth PM Corbyn?
'Their voters' also include remainers of various ilks. Or at least, it used to before the current madness, and needs to in order to get a majority in the future.
And the people who are most likely to vote Conservative are largely leavers, they’ve got no bloody chance of a majority without them. The Tory Party has been ignoring them, using the same line that you are that they just have to shut up and take it while the party goes in a direction they are increasingly unhappy with. We are seeing the breakdown of this tactic.
I don’t see why they need them since the Remain vote is split amongst a large number of parties in parliament. If Tory remainers don’t like it they can always go CHUK or LD.
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
Not sure of the exact words he used, but pretty sure Rory Stewart was warning the tories risked becoming a No Deal Brexit cult, to the exclusion of all else, at this rate.
Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
And how do you propose to regain those voters?
Quite simple, Raab or Boris are very likely to succeed May as Tory leader and shift to a hard Brexit platform for the future relationship whether she gets her Deal through or not
I would have thought given recent events either Raab or Boris succeeding May is considerably less likely. And even if they did I doubt it would make much difference. Leaver trust in the Tory Party has long been strained, even with Tory Leave Mps, and now May has destroyed it entirely. I’m not sure PM Boris could recover things now, even if he did go full-on leave, which I doubt. He’d far more likely push for some compromise like May anyway.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
'Leaver trust?' The Conservative Party has destroyed itself by pandering to Leavers' impossible demands. Whatever the value of 'Leaver trust' is, the price is too damned high.
The Tory party was on 40% of the vote just a month ago.
If the Tories do not listen to their voters then it will have to do without their votes.
Ask yourself, is staying in the EU worth PM Corbyn?
'Their voters' also include remainers of various ilks. Or at least, it used to before the current madness, and needs to in order to get a majority in the future.
And the people who are most likely to vote Conservative are largely leavers, they’ve got no bloody chance of a majority without them. The Tory Party has been ignoring them, using the same line that you are that they just have to shut up and take it while the party goes in a direction they are increasingly unhappy with. We are seeing the breakdown of this tactic.
I don’t see why they need them since the Remain vote is split amongst a large number of parties in parliament. If Tory remainers don’t like it they can always go CHUK or LD.
"I don’t see why they need them..."
Do you really think that hardcore leavers willing to vote Conservative are numerous enough to get the party a workable majority? Because I cannot see it.
Do you really think that hardcore leavers willing to vote Conservative are numerous enough to get the party a workable majority? Because I cannot see it.
And that's only the hardcore leavers that don't vote UKIP or Brignitas.
Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.
Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
It really isn’t.
One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
But we didn't, we just imported (dirtier) coal instead
Do you really think that hardcore leavers willing to vote Conservative are numerous enough to get the party a workable majority? Because I cannot see it.
But the Tories without the hardcore leavers are even less likely to get a workable majority. You seem to be assuming they will always vote Tory regardless of what the party in Westminster does. That’s a dangerous assumption.
Besides what does it have to do with hardcore leavers? The Tory Party is currently the only U.K.-wide vehicle in Westminster for any leavers. If it wasn’t doing everything it could to keep us as close to the EU as possible perhaps it might get more of their support...
Do you really think that hardcore leavers willing to vote Conservative are numerous enough to get the party a workable majority? Because I cannot see it.
But the Tories without the hardcore leavers are even less likely to get a workable majority. You seem to be assuming they will always vote Tory regardless of what the party in Westminster does. That’s a dangerous assumption.
Besides what does it have to do with hardcore leavers? The Tory Party is currently the only U.K.-wide vehicle in Westminster for any leavers. If it wasn’t doing everything it could to keep us as close to the EU as possible perhaps it might get more of their support...
Leavers also have other parties to move to: UKIP and Brexit. The question therefore becomes how many people they can afford to haemorrhage in either direction.
Which shows he madness of a party obsessing about an issue such as Brexit, at the cost of everything else a government needs to do.
"... If it wasn’t doing everything it could to keep us as close to the EU as possible ..."
Personally, I'd put that as "they are trying to come up with a compromise that will not lead to disaster."
More leavers should consider that compromise is not a dirty word.
Leavers also have other parties to move to: UKIP and Brexit.
Which is why I chose the words I used carefully. The point is neither UKIP nor Brexit have MPs, whereas there are plenty of viable Remain alternatives in parliament.
The question therefore becomes how many people they can afford to haemorrhage in either direction.
Many more than on the leave side, since as I said almost all parties in Westminster are led by ardent remainers (or at least pretend remainers), despite that being the attitude of at best between a quarter to a third of the public. The gap in politics is on the leave side.
Leavers also have other parties to move to: UKIP and Brexit.
Which is why I chose the words I used carefully. The point is neither UKIP nor Brexit have MPs, whereas there are plenty of viable Remain alternatives in parliament.
The question therefore becomes how many people they can afford to haemorrhage in either direction.
Many more than on the leave side, since as I said almost all parties in Westminster are led by ardent remainers (or at least pretend remainers), despite that being the attitude of at best between a quarter to a third of the public. The gap in politics is on the leave side.
"... If it wasn’t doing everything it could to keep us as close to the EU as possible ..."
Personally, I'd put that as "they are trying to come up with a compromise that will not lead to disaster."
I’m sure you would put it that way, but then you aren’t a leaver so I wouldn’t expect you to understand how they see it.
What a load of patronising rubbish.
For one thing (and I hate to break it to you): there is more than one type of 'leaver', many of whom see Brexit and the world in general in rather different ways. Even amongst my acquaintances.
Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.
I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
They will not be stooges to Labour for sure. They will drive hard bargain for any support and know well not to trust Labour as far as you can throw them.
PS, surprised they have not pushed the right to have referendum and let the Supreme Court rule on it.
Because they don't have that right. It's a power reserved to Westminster, so the SC would just laugh at them.
They could of course hold a wildcat referendum. However, that would be illegal and while I don't think the Government would send in thugs to beat up old ladies a la Catalonia I can easily see them prosecuting the Executive for misuse of public funds.
It is not as clear cut as that , it is debatable for certain , some lawyers think it is and some think not, however under international law a country has the right to self determination so they will not be able to do anything but delay it. Your thoughts would be certain to cause independence so hopefully they go that way.
Oh I’m very aware there are a range of opinions amongst leavers. You just don’t seem to get the point that not delivering on Brexit will mean the Tories not ever getting a majority again anyway. And it’s a bigger issue for the Tories than losing any remainers who haven’t already jumped ship. It is not a surprise that liberals in the party want to keep pushing the party in that direction, but it makes no tactical sense; it’s a shallow pool with many fish in parliament already swimming in it.
Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.
I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
They will not be stooges to Labour for sure. They will drive hard bargain for any support and know well not to trust Labour as far as you can throw them.
PS, surprised they have not pushed the right to have referendum and let the Supreme Court rule on it.
One hopes in a Lab 290 SNP 50 situation that they'd have the negotiating approach and attitude of Arlene Foster not Nick Clegg, i.e. informal C&S, not coalition, and getting as much for Scotland as they offer in return. If Lab gets 290 the L.Dems might be a less troublesome and demanding 'partner', even if they've now learned what not to do from the Clegg experience.
Comments
Orange branding with black stripes.
Own the fucking nickname for Christ’s sake.
I can see the media narrative being UKIP+Brexit v LibDem+CUK, with Labour's position depending on whether they come out unambiguously for a referendum. The Greens will be a side issue. If this is right, then advising potential LibDem or CUK supporters to vote tactically for the Greens would be a mistake.
Labour 26%
Brexit Party 24%
Tories 20%
Greens 12%
Lib Dems 7%
UKIP 4%
CUK 2%
I think the Greens will mop up the disaffected Labour/"Remain" votes. The Lib Dems' problem is IMO they'll be seen as part of the Westminster mess over the past couple of months. On top of that, since long before Brexit, the Greens have always been a certain type of Labour voter's choice of 'fun' vote for election as consequence-free as the Euros.
If they really want to change politics, they should be championing electoral co-operation with other centrist parties, as the Greens have tried to do. But it seems CUK has set its face against doing so.
They also appear to have the problem that a fair few former Labour and Tory MPs are coming out of the woodwork applying to be CUk Euro-candidates. Putting up political retreads, particularly MPs who lost their seats and fancy another ride on the train, won't sit happily with their name or message. At least the ones in parliament have clearly put their careers on the line because of their belief that things need to change. Putting up a slate of rejected Tory and Labour politicians for the Euro elections won't do them any favours.
I’d expect a common launch and set of Euro policies, joint campaigning, and a voting guide region by region.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
It was a federation of a leftwing Labour break off, a Maori sovereignty party, the Greens, a kind of one-nation Conservative party, and a “social credit” party.
They managed to score some decent electoral breakthroughs until a change in the political system and culture rendered their alliance unnecessary.
Best parallel to the current situation is probably the expenses scandal, where people bypassed the Lib Dems and went straight to UKIP, the Greens or the BNP for protest votes, since they were all more obviously outsiders than the LDs.
All this could have been avoided with a timely, well organised Brexit but of course that needed Parliament to stop playing politics for their own gain (both sides) and trying to prevent Brexit happening.
If the Tories do not listen to their voters then it will have to do without their votes.
Ask yourself, is staying in the EU worth PM Corbyn?
In a further sign that the Conservatives would face a split if May were replaced as leader by a hardline pro-Brexit leader, the Observer has also obtained a recording of Kenneth Clarke, the former chancellor, telling students at Nottingham University earlier this month that, while he believes that leaving the Tory party now would be an “odd gesture”, he would “probably” switch to Change UK if May’s successor was a hardline Brexiter leader who appointed a cabinet full of anti-EU Tories.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/14/stephen-dorrell-defection-change-uk-tory-poll-five-year-low
(Although I suppose in saying that last part, I am betraying a a bias against the establishment as strong as the party members are to it)
That's a more likely result
Indeed - I'm still instinctively suspicious, but all the signs are they're treating it seriously. Awfully hard to walk back when you've consistently made positive noises, and there genuinely isn't any real sticking point for either side.
In fact I don't really see how you can want that kind of change and not be left wing. As long as money is the main factor behind power and as long as people who are rich stay rich or get richer, it'll always be the same people in power.
Dave announcing his resignation felt like a kick in the balls, this would a million times worse for me.
I don’t see why they need them since the Remain vote is split amongst a large number of parties in parliament. If Tory remainers don’t like it they can always go CHUK or LD.
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1117378549353152512
NEW THREAD
Do you really think that hardcore leavers willing to vote Conservative are numerous enough to get the party a workable majority? Because I cannot see it.
Besides what does it have to do with hardcore leavers? The Tory Party is currently the only U.K.-wide vehicle in Westminster for any leavers. If it wasn’t doing everything it could to keep us as close to the EU as possible perhaps it might get more of their support...
Which shows he madness of a party obsessing about an issue such as Brexit, at the cost of everything else a government needs to do.
"... If it wasn’t doing everything it could to keep us as close to the EU as possible ..."
Personally, I'd put that as "they are trying to come up with a compromise that will not lead to disaster."
More leavers should consider that compromise is not a dirty word.
For one thing (and I hate to break it to you): there is more than one type of 'leaver', many of whom see Brexit and the world in general in rather different ways. Even amongst my acquaintances.
Oh I’m very aware there are a range of opinions amongst leavers. You just don’t seem to get the point that not delivering on Brexit will mean the Tories not ever getting a majority again anyway. And it’s a bigger issue for the Tories than losing any remainers who haven’t already jumped ship. It is not a surprise that liberals in the party want to keep pushing the party in that direction, but it makes no tactical sense; it’s a shallow pool with many fish in parliament already swimming in it.