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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    Strangely I don't remember lefties describing Stephen Dorrell as 'sane and sensible' when he was a cabinet minister in the 1990s.
    Shows how fast the sanity window is shifting.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
  • Scott_P said:

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
    Oi, I wear Hugo Boss.
    We're all scouse fans today!
    Thanks. I’m at Anfield today, as I was that fateful day in April 2014.

    I still have nightmares about it.

    Am hoping the vile abuse from Chelsea fans towards Mo ensures we win 5 nil.

    Personally I feel we should relegate Chelsea and West Ham for the bigotry of their fans.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Scott_P said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Or Little Englanders, as David Cameron noted...
    Or Democrats as many might term them. I mean, when did the idea of actually pursuing policies that the people voted for become such anathema with so many commentators and politicians?

    It shows the mindset of many of these former ministers that they run a mile from anything that looks like proper representative government.
  • Scott_P said:

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
    Oi, I wear Hugo Boss.
    We're all scouse fans today!
    Thanks. I’m at Anfield today, as I was that fateful day in April 2014.

    I still have nightmares about it.

    Am hoping the vile abuse from Chelsea fans towards Mo ensures we win 5 nil.

    Personally I feel we should relegate Chelsea and West Ham for the bigotry of their fans.
    Fair mainstream policies like that are a strong manifesto....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Scott_P said:

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
    Oi, I wear Hugo Boss.
    We're all scouse fans today!
    Thanks. I’m at Anfield today, as I was that fateful day in April 2014.

    I still have nightmares about it.

    Am hoping the vile abuse from Chelsea fans towards Mo ensures we win 5 nil.

    Personally I feel we should relegate Chelsea and West Ham for the bigotry of their fans.
    Fair mainstream policies like that are a strong manifesto....
    and Tottenham for the Aubameyang banana?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
    Although I think the Thatcher reforms were on balance beneficial, there were certainly losers. The losers hated Thatcher because they were losing their jobs, but a lot them (or their children) now identify with the Conservatives and UKIP. Whereas, of the winners who hated Thatcher it was much more because she represented a form of Provincial Englishness which they loathe, and they still loathe the Conservatives for it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    Strangely I don't remember lefties describing Stephen Dorrell as 'sane and sensible' when he was a cabinet minister in the 1990s.
    Shows how fast the sanity window is shifting.
    Indeed - our lefties have gone insane.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    Scott_P said:

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the party during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.

    It used to be said that UKIP were the BNP in blazers.

    Are the ERG the BNP in Hugo Boss...?
    More Samuel Windsor I think.
    (for those that don't know, budget brand that apes Savile Row, right up Farage & Nuttall's Straße).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Anybody know how many SDP are standing in the locals? Or where I can find out?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    Strangely I don't remember lefties describing Stephen Dorrell as 'sane and sensible' when he was a cabinet minister in the 1990s.
    The bar is a lot lower than it was...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
    Although I think the Thatcher reforms were on balance beneficial, there were certainly losers. The losers hated Thatcher because they were losing their jobs, but a lot them (or their children) now identify with the Conservatives and UKIP. Whereas, of the winners who hated Thatcher it was much more because she represented a form of Provincial Englishness which they loathe, and they still loathe the Conservatives for it.
    Viewers in Scotland have their own programme.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    That Labour shat on mining areas for 13 years and then bailed out the bankers would have had an effect.

    As would changing demographics and levels of home ownership in some mining areas and in some of the economically dynamic areas.

    An interesting contrast is between the mining areas and Merseyside, which has become ever more strongly Labour.
  • rcs1000 said:


    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.


    There won't be a joint list. We (Lib Dems) are already in the process of selecting our candidates lists... indeed I've already cast my votes in that poll for my region (East Midlands).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
    Although I think the Thatcher reforms were on balance beneficial, there were certainly losers. The losers hated Thatcher because they were losing their jobs, but a lot them (or their children) now identify with the Conservatives and UKIP. Whereas, of the winners who hated Thatcher it was much more because she represented a form of Provincial Englishness which they loathe, and they still loathe the Conservatives for it.
    Viewers in Scotland have their own programme.

    Was that really as bad as Armando Iannucci made out?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBKp_rgJbNk
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?

    Remember when May said Brexit means Brexit?

    Then brought back a turd of a deal which would mean we had already lost the trade negotiations before they started ?

    He only surprise is this implosion didn’t happen earlier.

    I’m sure Hammond , Rudd and Lidlington have this all under control though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Scott_P said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Or Little Englanders, as David Cameron noted...
    Or Democrats as many might term them. I mean, when did the idea of actually pursuing policies that the people voted for become such anathema with so many commentators and politicians?

    It shows the mindset of many of these former ministers that they run a mile from anything that looks like proper representative government.
    It's funny how Little Englander started off as a right wing insult, and became a left wing one.

    The original Little Englanders were those who thought the UK should mind its own business internationally, and not indulge in Empire building.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TGOHF said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?

    Remember when May said Brexit means Brexit?

    Then brought back a turd of a deal which would mean we had already lost the trade negotiations before they started ?

    He only surprise is this implosion didn’t happen earlier.

    I’m sure Hammond , Rudd and Lidlington have this all under control though.
    She brought back a Brexit while those who still parrot the meaningless 'Brexit means Brexit' slogan worked toward seeing no Brexit. As crap as May is she's achieved more for Brexit than those who work overtime overcompensating to show their red blooded Brexit support. They seem like those secrety gay homophobes you see in reports from time to time.

    Certainly, I think it hilarious and tragic that those who say they want Brexit the most even as they work to prevent it, intentionally or otherwise, get to posture that they are the only true Brexiteers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
    Although I think the Thatcher reforms were on balance beneficial, there were certainly losers. The losers hated Thatcher because they were losing their jobs, but a lot them (or their children) now identify with the Conservatives and UKIP. Whereas, of the winners who hated Thatcher it was much more because she represented a form of Provincial Englishness which they loathe, and they still loathe the Conservatives for it.
    Viewers in Scotland have their own programme.

    Recent Scottish results suggest that much of the lost support of the 1980's and 1990's has been regained.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    That Labour shat on mining areas for 13 years and then bailed out the bankers would have had an effect.

    As would changing demographics and levels of home ownership in some mining areas and in some of the economically dynamic areas.

    An interesting contrast is between the mining areas and Merseyside, which has become ever more strongly Labour.
    Merseyside moves ever leftwards. First the Liverpool working classes in the Sixties, when Protestants stopped voting Conservative. Then the middle classes in the Eighties. Then the outlying middle class areas in the Nineties and Noughties, places like Crosby and the Wirral.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    TGOHF said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?

    Remember when May said Brexit means Brexit?

    Then brought back a turd of a deal which would mean we had already lost the trade negotiations before they started ?

    He only surprise is this implosion didn’t happen earlier.

    I’m sure Hammond , Rudd and Lidlington have this all under control though.
    The trade negotiations were lost through the incompetence of Liam Fox.

    Now that is also May's fault for appointing Fox and then not sacking him.

    But anyone who claims to be interested in trade negotiations should have been demanding Fox's removal for over a year.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    TGOHF said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?

    Remember when May said Brexit means Brexit?

    Then brought back a turd of a deal which would mean we had already lost the trade negotiations before they started ?

    He only surprise is this implosion didn’t happen earlier.

    I’m sure Hammond , Rudd and Lidlington have this all under control though.
    She did bring back Brexit. She failed to bring back pure, sound, Brexit, alienating the posturers on the backbenches.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
    Although I think the Thatcher reforms were on balance beneficial, there were certainly losers. The losers hated Thatcher because they were losing their jobs, but a lot them (or their children) now identify with the Conservatives and UKIP. Whereas, of the winners who hated Thatcher it was much more because she represented a form of Provincial Englishness which they loathe, and they still loathe the Conservatives for it.
    Viewers in Scotland have their own programme.

    Recent Scottish results suggest that much of the lost support of the 1980's and 1990's has been regained.
    Pretty sure not many of them are the 'losers' or their children from the 1980s. Those that are will be Kippery, BNP lite Unionists.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the LibDems and ChangeUK will tag team for the Euro Elections and then outpoll the Tories in the TSE nightmare scenario?

    Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There .... :smile:

    They don't have the time (or inclination) to form a combined slate.
    I have built a D'Hondt model to easily evaluate various scenarios.

    I have used the YouGov regional data. NB Small samples.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 5
    LD 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 4
    Remain 2

    So there is some benefit if they can get their act together.

    EDIT: Ignore! I've used the GE data instead of the Euro data. Will recalculate.
    Correct data
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 4
    LD 1
    Brexit 1
    Green 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 3
    Remain 3 (LD, Chuk and Green)
    Leave 1 (Brexit and UKIP)
    Based on that polling 13% of 2017 Tories now back the Brexit Party, more than the 3% who have switched to Labour and the 4% who have switched to the LDs and the 3% who have switched to CUK combined (indeed 4% of 2017 Labour voters and 9% of 2017 LDs have actually switched to the Tories).

    Add in the 8% of 2017 Tories who have switched to UKIP and 21% of 2017 Tory voters are now backing Eurosceptic parties, whether the Tories can win them back or not could be pivotal to determining who wins the next general election.


    For the European elections a full 28% of 2017 Tories will back the Brexit Party and 23% UKIP compared to just 38% who will stick with the Tories showing 51% of 2017 Tories will cast a protest vote for a Eurosceptic party even if most of them will return to the Tories for the general election


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    Opinium shows the same. 29% of Conservatives from 2017 are voting UKIP or "some other party" (the Brexit party does not have a separate tab). A few weeks ago, most of that 29% were voting Conservative.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sean_F said:



    She did bring back Brexit. She failed to bring back pure, sound, Brexit, alienating the posturers on the backbenches.

    She brought back a Brexit that managed to combine the worst aspects of both leaving and remaining. The only MPs who voted for it were tory drones fuelled by robotic loyalty and a few Labour turds fuelled by who knows what.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Andrew said:
    The problem is the PM is incapable of selling anything,
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
  • tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Prof O'Hara on the prospects for a Corbyn govt:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1117126968003190786
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?

    Remember when May said Brexit means Brexit?

    Then brought back a turd of a deal which would mean we had already lost the trade negotiations before they started ?

    He only surprise is this implosion didn’t happen earlier.

    I’m sure Hammond , Rudd and Lidlington have this all under control though.
    She did bring back Brexit. She failed to bring back pure, sound, Brexit, alienating the posturers on the backbenches.
    But you’re considering voting for the Brexit party.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Curious that the noises coming out of the Con/Lab talks continue to be fairly positive, from both sides (excluding the likes of Starmer who have no interest in their success).

    I'm still dubious, but they've lasted longer than expected.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Andrew said:

    Curious that the noises coming out of the Con/Lab talks continue to be fairly positive, from both sides (excluding the likes of Starmer who have no interest in their success).

    I'm still dubious, but they've lasted longer than expected.

    May and Corbyn have a shared interest in kicking the can.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Or Little Englanders, as David Cameron noted...
    Or Democrats as many might term them. I mean, when did the idea of actually pursuing policies that the people voted for become such anathema with so many commentators and politicians?

    It shows the mindset of many of these former ministers that they run a mile from anything that looks like proper representative government.
    It's funny how Little Englander started off as a right wing insult, and became a left wing one.

    The original Little Englanders were those who thought the UK should mind its own business internationally, and not indulge in Empire building.
    Right and left for me , both xenophobic , swivelled eyed loons with delusions of past grandeur.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Prof O'Hara on the prospects for a Corbyn govt:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1117126968003190786

    Looks about right.
    But even a minority government led by Corbyn will do terrible damage to the country.

    (This was all baked in to Brexit, by the way).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    One suspects you protest too much about those twats.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited April 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting analysis by Stephen Dorrell today that the Tories have become an inward looking English Nationalist party, far removed from the party of sound money and economic competence that he joined.

    Worryingly for the Tories, Dorrell staunchly defended the Tories during Hague's leadership when there were accusations of 'lurching to the right'. That he doesn't feel able to now must speak volumes.
    Indeed. Another sane and sensible voice deserts a once great party of state. What has happened to the Big Two?
    It's a perennial complaint, though. Ian Gilmour complained about the Tories under Thatcher "retreating behind a privet hedge" and plenty of grandees at the time complained about the end of One Nation Conservatism. Now, the Conservative party of the eighties is held up as a model of One Nation Conservatism.
    It really isn’t.
    One of the oddities of current politics is that lots of people who did lose out in the Thatcher years, in the coalfield communities, have begun voting Conservative in large numbers, whereas a lot of those who did very well, in economically dynamic areas, have never forgiven the Conservatives
    If ever there was a middle class identifier its banging on about Thatcher. Greens should be huge fans of shutting down the filthy atmosphere choking coal industry for example.
    Although I think the Thatcher reforms were on balance beneficial, there were certainly losers. The losers hated Thatcher because they were losing their jobs, but a lot them (or their children) now identify with the Conservatives and UKIP. Whereas, of the winners who hated Thatcher it was much more because she represented a form of Provincial Englishness which they loathe, and they still loathe the Conservatives for it.
    Viewers in Scotland have their own programme.

    Recent Scottish results suggest that much of the lost support of the 1980's and 1990's has been regained.
    Pretty sure not many of them are the 'losers' or their children from the 1980s. Those that are will be Kippery, BNP lite Unionists.
    Temporary blip by diehard anti independence unionists/Orange Lodge types and Labour implosion. Still hated by majority of people and will never ever be viable till they become a real Scottish party and not just London sockpuppets.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited April 2019

    rcs1000 said:


    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.


    There won't be a joint list. We (Lib Dems) are already in the process of selecting our candidates lists... indeed I've already cast my votes in that poll for my region (East Midlands).
    I have demonstrated (to my own satisfaction at least) using a D'Hondt simulator that a joint list would make little difference and is therefore not worth pursuing in view of the political and logistic problems involved.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    But Gove isn't a remainer twat who knows fuck all is he?

    He ran the Leave campaign.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,857
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    How many of the 17 million votes did you cast? Is it beyond the realms of possibility that others voted for different reasons to you? Or do they literally say that you voted for x reason?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019

    Prof O'Hara on the prospects for a Corbyn govt:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1117126968003190786

    Looks about right.
    But even a minority government led by Corbyn will do terrible damage to the country.

    (This was all baked in to Brexit, by the way).
    His comments on the potential implosion of HE are interesting. The same might happen with private schooling (or at least, that is clearly Corbyn's intention with the extra costs piling on) but equally that leaves a huge funding gap in his proposals for free school meals and an increase in per pupil funding.

    (As it happens though, the current pensions crisis might eliminate the private sector anyway even before Corbyn gets in - we're all watching nervously round here to see if any other schools follow the lead of Abbot's Bromley and what the implications are for the state sector if they do.)

    I also don't see Labour's proposals on water renationalisation going anywhere - leaving aside the minor detail their sums are out by the small matter of around £90 billion, the proposals they have adopted effectively mean guaranteed dividends for current shareholders which would mean less investment in infrastructure and higher bills - the exact opposite of what was intended!

    But because Corbyn has promised the moon on a stick if he delivers a turd on his middle finger his supporters are going to be mildly vexed.

    And if he delivers no deal Brexit as well...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    edited April 2019
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Ironically the best result for the Tories at both Westminster and Holyrood might be for a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP pursuing BINO or EUref2, in which case the Tories can unite Unionists behind them in Scotland as the main party clearly opposed to the SNP and Brexiteers in England and Wales as the main party committed to a hard Brexit
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    But Gove isn't a remainer twat who knows fuck all is he?

    He ran the Leave campaign.
    I agree he is not a Remainer. I further agree he ran the Leave campaign.

    I dispute the rest!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:
    The problem is the PM is incapable of selling anything,
    But nobody else - apart from perhaps Rory Stewart, Ken Clarke and Caroline Flint - has made an effort either.

    Now perhaps all the cabinet are scheming away for their own benefit and are happy to see May's Deal fail but why haven't May's SPADs organised any sort of positive marketing.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    But Gove isn't a remainer twat who knows fuck all is he?

    He ran the Leave campaign.
    I agree he is not a Remainer. I further agree he ran the Leave campaign.

    I dispute the rest!
    He is a bellend of the first order
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?

    Remember when May said Brexit means Brexit?

    Then brought back a turd of a deal which would mean we had already lost the trade negotiations before they started ?

    He only surprise is this implosion didn’t happen earlier.

    I’m sure Hammond , Rudd and Lidlington have this all under control though.
    She did bring back Brexit. She failed to bring back pure, sound, Brexit, alienating the posturers on the backbenches.
    But you’re considering voting for the Brexit party.
    Fair point.

    On the one hand, Farage is a huckster. On the other, if the Conservatives really were heading for a derisory result, I'd want to vote for the one party that could beat Labour. That would be even more the case if the Conservatives decided not to contest the Euro elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the LibDems and ChangeUK will tag team for the Euro Elections and then outpoll the Tories in the TSE nightmare scenario?

    Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There .... :smile:

    They don't have the time (or inclination) to form a combined slate.
    I have built a D'Hondt model to easily evaluate various scenarios.

    I have used the YouGov regional data. NB Small samples.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 5
    LD 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 2
    Lab 4
    Remain 2

    So there is some benefit if they can get their act together.

    EDIT: Ignore! I've used the GE data instead of the Euro data. Will recalculate.
    Correct data
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    For the London region, without a "tag team" the seats would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 4
    LD 1
    Brexit 1
    Green 1

    With Remain and Leave "tag teams" the result would be:
    Con 1
    Lab 3
    Remain 3 (LD, Chuk and Green)
    Leave 1 (Brexit and UKIP)
    Based on that polling 13% of 2017 Tories now back the Brexit Party, more than the 3% who have switched to Labour and the 4% who have switched to the LDs and the 3% who have switched to CUK combined (indeed 4% of 2017 Labour voters and 9% of 2017 LDs have actually switched to the Tories).

    Add in the 8% of 2017 Tories who have switched to UKIP and 21% of 2017 Tory voters are now backing Eurosceptic parties, whether the Tories can win them back or not could be pivotal to determining who wins the next general election.


    For the European elections a full 28% of 2017 Tories will back the Brexit Party and 23% UKIP compared to just 38% who will stick with the Tories showing 51% of 2017 Tories will cast a protest vote for a Eurosceptic party even if most of them will return to the Tories for the general election


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf

    Opinium shows the same. 29% of Conservatives from 2017 are voting UKIP or "some other party" (the Brexit party does not have a separate tab). A few weeks ago, most of that 29% were voting Conservative.
    Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,857
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:


    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.


    There won't be a joint list. We (Lib Dems) are already in the process of selecting our candidates lists... indeed I've already cast my votes in that poll for my region (East Midlands).
    I have demonstrated (to my own satisfaction at least) using a D'Hondt simulator that a joint list would make little difference and is therefore not worth pursuing in view of the political and logistic problems involved.
    Interested to hear why it would not make a difference? Does that take account of the possibility of the Tories not running?

    Psychologically I think there would be a boost for a remain alliance if it had a small but realistic possibility of topping the poll which would then boost turnout for remain, whereas voting for one of two parties polling around 10% in elections that may turn out to be meaningless has less appeal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    But Gove isn't a remainer twat who knows fuck all is he?

    He ran the Leave campaign.
    I agree he is not a Remainer. I further agree he ran the Leave campaign.

    I dispute the rest!
    Am I right that you're not a fan of Gove's.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
    But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.

    I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I am rather gloomy about the prospects for this country this morning.

    I voted against Brexit because I saw:

    - a long term economic hit
    - a collapse in British influence in Europe, and a related decline in global standing.
    - the emboldening of xenophobic sentiment
    - a collapse in British governance abilities
    - increased independence sentiment in Northern Ireland and Scotland
    - an increase in the odds of a Corbyn government
    - a likely focus on Brexit at the expense of other policy areas
    - a complete disconnect between Brexit and the actual underlying issues facing the country.

    I have been wrong about some of the detail, but three years on I appear to have been right about the big stuff.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:


    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.


    There won't be a joint list. We (Lib Dems) are already in the process of selecting our candidates lists... indeed I've already cast my votes in that poll for my region (East Midlands).
    I have demonstrated (to my own satisfaction at least) using a D'Hondt simulator that a joint list would make little difference and is therefore not worth pursuing in view of the political and logistic problems involved.
    It depends what vote they get. If Lib Dems, Greens, and Change all pull votes away from Labour and reach 10% apiece, it will make no difference. If they remain stuck on 6-8% each, it could make a big difference.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    But Gove isn't a remainer twat who knows fuck all is he?

    He ran the Leave campaign.
    I agree he is not a Remainer. I further agree he ran the Leave campaign.

    I dispute the rest!
    He is a bellend of the first order
    Please withdraw Malcolm, that's unfair to bellends.
    Sean_F said:

    Am I right that you're not a fan of Gove's.

    I do not think I would use that characterisation. It implies that I am simply neutral. Whereas in reality due to his arrogance, stupidity, incompetence, failure, rudeness and dishonesty I hate the bastard's guts.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    No Deal honours the result. It's just not a desirable way of honouring the result.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited April 2019
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
    But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.

    I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
    They will not be stooges to Labour for sure. They will drive hard bargain for any support and know well not to trust Labour as far as you can throw them.

    PS, surprised they have not pushed the right to have referendum and let the Supreme Court rule on it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
    But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.

    I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
    They will not be stooges to Labour for sure. They will drive hard bargain for any support and know well not to trust Labour as far as you can throw them.
    Well, we thought about the Liberal Democrats in 2010. The adoption of the Browne report lock, stock and barrel proved us tragically wrong.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2019
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,717
    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, if those voters were regained by the Tories they could stay in power, maybe even with a small majority, without them hard to see anything other than Corbyn as PM

    And how do you propose to regain those voters?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,857
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    No Deal honours the result. It's just not a desirable way of honouring the result.
    It may honour the current views of the people who voted to leave, but it was not what was either campaigned for or representative of the view of the country at the time of the hallowed vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
    But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.

    I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
    They will not be stooges to Labour for sure. They will drive hard bargain for any support and know well not to trust Labour as far as you can throw them.

    PS, surprised they have not pushed the right to have referendum and let the Supreme Court rule on it.
    Because they don't have that right. It's a power reserved to Westminster, so the SC would just laugh at them.

    They could of course hold a wildcat referendum. However, that would be illegal and while I don't think the Government would send in thugs to beat up old ladies a la Catalonia I can easily see them prosecuting the Executive for misuse of public funds.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    I am rather gloomy about the prospects for this country this morning.

    I voted against Brexit because I saw:

    - a long term economic hit
    - a collapse in British influence in Europe, and a related decline in global standing.
    - the emboldening of xenophobic sentiment
    - a collapse in British governance abilities
    - increased independence sentiment in Northern Ireland and Scotland
    - an increase in the odds of a Corbyn government
    - a likely focus on Brexit at the expense of other policy areas
    - a complete disconnect between Brexit and the actual underlying issues facing the country.

    I have been wrong about some of the detail, but three years on I appear to have been right about the big stuff.

    Look on the bright side, you can always bugger off to the land of Jacinta.

    Not an easy option for me unless I fancy Invercargill!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    Not just unobtainable from the EU but unobtainable from the Commons.

    The hardliners act as though there are 350 of them in the Commons, rather than 120.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    How many of the 17 million votes did you cast? Is it beyond the realms of possibility that others voted for different reasons to you? Or do they literally say that you voted for x reason?
    If you read my original post you'll see that I said "I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit." Whilst I have sympathies with isam's reasons for wanting out of FoM, I would be content with Richard Tyndall's desired outcome too.

    However, I do want us to leave the EU. And if the MPs don't want to vote for the WA, then no deal it should be and that goes for all MPs voting against the WA whether it's the ERG or Labour MPs in leave voting seats.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Andrew said:

    Curious that the noises coming out of the Con/Lab talks continue to be fairly positive, from both sides (excluding the likes of Starmer who have no interest in their success).

    I'm still dubious, but they've lasted longer than expected.

    Good to see Sue Hayman at the top table there - in my opinion one of the best of the Opposition front bench, but hitherto overshadowed by others. A bit like Gove, she's actually interested in her brief and works hard to come up with viable proposals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/14/lidington-tories-labour-deal-more-unites-than-divides-us
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,717
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    Not just unobtainable from the EU but unobtainable from the Commons.

    The hardliners act as though there are 350 of them in the Commons, rather than 120.
    That just means that no Brexit is available aside from the default No-Deal. May can hardly be blamed for failing to get an alternative deal through in such circumstances.

    The blame lies with all of us to a certain extent: but leavers and especially the hard brexiteers should take a good, long hard look at their actions. But instead it's all someone else's fault.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    Not just unobtainable from the EU but unobtainable from the Commons.

    The hardliners act as though there are 350 of them in the Commons, rather than 120.
    The mistakes the ERG have made during the last six months include:

    1) Assuming they could bounce May into doing what they wanted.

    2) Assuming they could replace May if she didn't.

    3) Assuming that No Deal Brexit would happen automatically if they continued voting against a Deal.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    What's happened to Watsons Scooby Gang? Theyve gone quieter than the Tiggers
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,857
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Funny that the nut squad on here are planning to vote Farage “to support Brexit” given that it is Farage’s fellow travellers in the ERG who have actually blocked Brexit in the face of official Tory government policy.

    Yes, that fact hasn't escaped me.

    Flawed as it is, I would have taken May's deal and had done with it by now.

    Voting for the Brexit party isn't just voting for Brexit, it's voting for hard-brexit-up-the-arse-of-the-economy.

    On the other hand, if you're completely pissed off with the current crop of politicians (remainer and ERG alike) and their failure to deliver on the 2016 referendum result, and want to send a message - a free hit - to the Conservative party, who else do you vote for?
    Whilst I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit, I think the consequence of the Commons not agreeing to May's WA should be no deal. That's what I'm pissed off about.
    But Leavers assured us No Deal was Project Fear.

    Gove told the cabinet he didn’t campaign for No Deal thus No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.
    It honours it a lot more than not leaving at all does. If there's one thing that boils my piss it's remainers telling me what I did and didn't vote for. I get it all the time in the office at work from know it all twats who actually know fuck all.
    How many of the 17 million votes did you cast? Is it beyond the realms of possibility that others voted for different reasons to you? Or do they literally say that you voted for x reason?
    If you read my original post you'll see that I said "I wouldn't moan about any form of Brexit." Whilst I have sympathies with isam's reasons for wanting out of FoM, I would be content with Richard Tyndall's desired outcome too.

    However, I do want us to leave the EU. And if the MPs don't want to vote for the WA, then no deal it should be and that goes for all MPs voting against the WA whether it's the ERG or Labour MPs in leave voting seats.
    I would be content with any outcome bar no deal (and preference from here would be whatever option could be done quickly and ideally allow us to move on to other areas of policy).

    Whatever our preferences, it is legitimate for people, even twats and/or remainers, to have a view on what leave voters voted for.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    She is the leader of the Conservative party and only PM because of their support.

    She had to create a deal around their and the DUPs support.

    She failed.

    And failed again.

    Until the Con party throw her out for failure - and probably Hammond too - they cannot recover.

    The penny needs to drop soon for wets - unless remaining in the EU is more important than who runs the Uk...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:
    The problem is the PM is incapable of selling anything,
    Actually almost any policy can convince people if the poll leads in with a detailed explanation of the case for it. "It's crucial to avoid slaughter of the second-born, so this restricted policy will save lives..." But leading questions make bad polling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    Not just unobtainable from the EU but unobtainable from the Commons.

    The hardliners act as though there are 350 of them in the Commons, rather than 120.
    That just means that no Brexit is available aside from the default No-Deal. May can hardly be blamed for failing to get an alternative deal through in such circumstances.

    The blame lies with all of us to a certain extent: but leavers and especially the hard brexiteers should take a good, long hard look at their actions. But instead it's all someone else's fault.
    If the 28 remaining hardliners had voted for the WA, the government would have been two short. I expect they could have picked up two votes or 3 abstentions from somewhere. Even if the DUP were then to back a vote of confidence, it's not clear that it would pass, and even if it did, a general election in circumstances where Brexit was being achieved would give the government a fighting chance.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    She is the leader of the Conservative party and only PM because of their support.

    She had to create a deal around their and the DUPs support.

    She failed.

    And failed again.

    Until the Con party throw her out for failure - and probably Hammond too - they cannot recover.

    The penny needs to drop soon for wets - unless remaining in the EU is more important than who runs the Uk...
    Perhaps you could reveal what deal would have got a majority in parliament ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Cheery article from a Conservative donor.

    https://reaction.life/brexit-breaking-point-caused-failure-reflect-britains-history/

    The net effect has been to multiply divisions within British society that have made the Conservative Party and the Labour Party dysfunctional. As a result, government and parliament are unable to cope with the Herculean challenge of severing the ties of EU membership while keeping the country stable and prosperous.

    The problem is only going to become worse.

    As the Brexit process goes to its next stage regardless of whether it is “hard”, “soft” or simply delayed, it will create more divisions and irreconcilable problems.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    She is the leader of the Conservative party and only PM because of their support.

    She had to create a deal around their and the DUPs support.

    She failed.

    And failed again.

    Until the Con party throw her out for failure - and probably Hammond too - they cannot recover.

    The penny needs to drop soon for wets - unless remaining in the EU is more important than who runs the Uk...
    Perhaps you could reveal what deal would have got a majority in parliament ?
    One with a time limited backstop for example.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,717
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    She is the leader of the Conservative party and only PM because of their support.

    She had to create a deal around their and the DUPs support.

    She failed.

    And failed again.

    Until the Con party throw her out for failure - and probably Hammond too - they cannot recover.

    The penny needs to drop soon for wets - unless remaining in the EU is more important than who runs the Uk...
    There was no deal that would satisfy the 'Conservative Party' (which itself is split on the issue) and the DUP - and still be acceptable to the EU.

    It's sad that people seem to forget that it is a negotiation with an external party: we cannot just insist that everyone around us has to accept what we want, like a stroppy toddler. Then again, it's hardly surprising that Brexiteers would think in such a manner.

    May has made mistakes, especially with hindsight. But she got a deal that was acceptable to many leavers and remainers - and which was also acceptable to the EU. She was never going to please everyone.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    What's happened to Watsons Scooby Gang? Theyve gone quieter than the Tiggers

    I presume they understand the workings of FPTP.

    A group within a party can work, e.g. isn't the CSU affiliated to the CDP and supports the CDP in the German parliament?
    ________
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
    But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.

    I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
    They will not be stooges to Labour for sure. They will drive hard bargain for any support and know well not to trust Labour as far as you can throw them.

    PS, surprised they have not pushed the right to have referendum and let the Supreme Court rule on it.
    One hopes in a Lab 290 SNP 50 situation that they'd have the negotiating approach and attitude of Arlene Foster not Nick Clegg, i.e. informal C&S, not coalition, and getting as much for Scotland as they offer in return. If Lab gets 290 the L.Dems might be a less troublesome and demanding 'partner', even if they've now learned what not to do from the Clegg experience.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ronnie Campbell MP on R4 - people are using “the Jewish issue” to attack Corbyn.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    She is the leader of the Conservative party and only PM because of their support.

    She had to create a deal around their and the DUPs support.

    She failed.

    And failed again.

    Until the Con party throw her out for failure - and probably Hammond too - they cannot recover.

    The penny needs to drop soon for wets - unless remaining in the EU is more important than who runs the Uk...
    The ERG and the DUP are not the only MPs who get to vote on this issue.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:


    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.


    There won't be a joint list. We (Lib Dems) are already in the process of selecting our candidates lists... indeed I've already cast my votes in that poll for my region (East Midlands).
    I have demonstrated (to my own satisfaction at least) using a D'Hondt simulator that a joint list would make little difference and is therefore not worth pursuing in view of the political and logistic problems involved.
    Interested to hear why it would not make a difference? Does that take account of the possibility of the Tories not running?

    Psychologically I think there would be a boost for a remain alliance if it had a small but realistic possibility of topping the poll which would then boost turnout for remain, whereas voting for one of two parties polling around 10% in elections that may turn out to be meaningless has less appeal.
    Suppose Brexit and UKIP each had 15% and 15% share in a 6 seat region. They would get one seat each. If they combined into the "Leave" party with 30%, they would definitely get one seat and then, by D'Hondt, it would reduce to 15% which would also get one seat so they are square. The more seats in the region, the more it makes no difference. In smaller regions or the smaller the shares it could make a difference.

    It's true that in theory D'Hondt favours larger parties. But remember that in theory there is no difference between theory and practice but in practice there is.   Yogi Berra.   

    I agree with your last paragraph.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Ronnie Campbell MP on R4 - people are using “the Jewish issue” to attack Corbyn.....

    Does he propose a final solution to this issue?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2019
    Hmm, much as I'd love TSE to be right, I'm not convinced. Seems to me there's still a hardcore of oldies who vote in every election, and who are pretty dyed-in-the-wool Conservative.

    Remember the Newport West byelection was pretty solid for the Tories. The fact it was in Wales might have skewed that result a bit (after all, it was as much a mid-term byelection for the Welsh Labour government as it was for the Westminster Tories), but it does make me fear the Tory vote is holding up better than the polls suggest.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    What's happened to Watsons Scooby Gang? Theyve gone quieter than the Tiggers

    I presume they understand the workings of FPTP.

    A group within a party can work, e.g. isn't the CSU affiliated to the CDP and supports the CDP in the German parliament?
    ________
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Lab 307
    Con 245
    SNP 50
    LD 25
    DUP 9

    Con/SNP/LD/DUP strong and stable Coalition

    LOL
    Malcolm, in your view, how damaging would it be for the SNP if they propped up a minority government (almost certainly Labour) at Westminster? Would they do a Nick Clegg, or would it be more like the surge of 2011? (Serious question.)
    Would only work if a cast iron indyref was promised and I would expect they would not go full hog , just be an informal agreement, in my opinion. Lots of people will not be happy if no referendum before next election at Holyrood.
    But would that hit their support? If they cannot deliver a second indyref now, they are still in effect the only major party trying for one. So I can't see where supporters of independence or even devomax go at Holyrood, although I suppose they might abstain.

    I'm as more wondering whether being seen as Labour's stooges might hurt them. But I suppose if it was informal or even done by abstention it might not cause much harm.
    They will not be stooges to Labour for sure. They will drive hard bargain for any support and know well not to trust Labour as far as you can throw them.

    PS, surprised they have not pushed the right to have referendum and let the Supreme Court rule on it.
    One hopes in a Lab 290 SNP 50 situation that they'd have the negotiating approach and attitude of Arlene Foster not Nick Clegg, i.e. informal C&S, not coalition, and getting as much for Scotland as they offer in return. If Lab gets 290 the L.Dems might be a less troublesome and demanding 'partner', even if they've now learned what not to do from the Clegg experience.
    In that circumstance I'm sure (I hope) that the LibDems would do a DUP not a Clegg.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Danny565 said:

    Hmm, much as I'd love TSE to be right, I'm not convinced. Seems to me there's still a hardcore of oldies who vote in every election, and who are pretty dyed-in-the-wool Conservative.

    Remember the Newport West byelection was pretty solid for the Tories. The fact it was in Wales might have skewed that result a bit (after all, it was as much a mid-term byelection for the Welsh Labour government as it was for the Westminster Tories), but it does make me fear the Tory vote is holding up better than the polls suggest.

    It's one reason why I think the local election results will be tolerable for the Conservatives. A lot of Conservatives who say they'd vote UKIP/Brexit will have little opportunity to do so. Either they won't be fielding candidates in their ward, or it will only be one out of three.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Foxy said:

    I am rather gloomy about the prospects for this country this morning.

    I voted against Brexit because I saw:

    - a long term economic hit
    - a collapse in British influence in Europe, and a related decline in global standing.
    - the emboldening of xenophobic sentiment
    - a collapse in British governance abilities
    - increased independence sentiment in Northern Ireland and Scotland
    - an increase in the odds of a Corbyn government
    - a likely focus on Brexit at the expense of other policy areas
    - a complete disconnect between Brexit and the actual underlying issues facing the country.

    I have been wrong about some of the detail, but three years on I appear to have been right about the big stuff.

    Look on the bright side, you can always bugger off to the land of Jacinta.

    Not an easy option for me unless I fancy Invercargill!
    Why would you have to go to Invercargill? I assume your skills would be desirable anywhere.

    Certainly, among other effects, Brexit has weakened my own attachment to the U.K. Fairly or not, the country has come to represent a form of small-minded, dysfunctional nostalgia. For now, our jobs keep us here but Britain is no longer the unquestioned default assumption on where to make a life.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This obsession of trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the PM is a bit rum.

    Mrs May has known for some time that she would have to get her deal through - why didn’t she consult with those voters.

    Arrogance ? Badly advised ? Pig thick ?

    Take your pick - but to not prepare is unforgivable.

    A significant problem is that many of the people you wanted her to consult wanted either unobtainable unicorns, no deal under any circumstances, or to undermine the PM to increase their chances to get the top job for themselves or their mates.

    In addition, the ERG have shown that, in their minds, 'consult' means having people do as they say. This was often in direct contradiction to what was potentially available from the EU.

    What is more, in most cases their views and opinions were known without 'consultation'. What good would 'consultation' with the nutters have done?
    She is the leader of the Conservative party and only PM because of their support.

    She had to create a deal around their and the DUPs support.

    She failed.

    And failed again.

    Until the Con party throw her out for failure - and probably Hammond too - they cannot recover.

    The penny needs to drop soon for wets - unless remaining in the EU is more important than who runs the Uk...
    Perhaps you could reveal what deal would have got a majority in parliament ?
    One with a time limited backstop for example.
    And what if the EU didn't accept that ? As indeed they haven't.

    Perhaps instead a combination of May's Deal + CU might do better.

    Would you be willing to accept that ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Streeter said:
    That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Barnesian said:

    Streeter said:
    That's very good. It shows you don't have to tactical vote in most regions but in some smaller ones you should. These are the ones that would benefit from a joint list.
    I haven’t read the article, but even if tactical voting made little difference, the country needs centrists (TIG, LDs, Moderate Lab, Greens) to make common cause right now.

    There is no other game in town apart from the Euro elections, and they represent a potential narrative shifter.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Chris said:

    Always worth bearing in mind that the Tories have achieved a parliamentary majority - and that barely in double figures - in only one election in the last quarter of a century.

    True, but you are cherry picking the cut off date. It's five times if you use the last forty years.
    Another meaningless cherry picked fact. In those forty years 3 Conservative leaders have won an overall majority but only 1 Labour leader.
    If you really see it as "cherry picking" to point out that the Tories have achieved a majority in only one of the last six general elections, and a small majority at that, then of course that's your prerogative.

    I think it's a sign that things have changed very much from the times when they could achieve a majority four times in a row.
This discussion has been closed.