politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a f

SouthamObserver said:

Marvellous ...
https://twitter.com/donnyc1975/status/1116783475598737408?s=21

Jamon Jamon.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1116978179565137920

There is a question I have that nobody else seems to be interested in. What does Roger Scruton know about housing?

isam said:

Nigelb said:

isam said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?

A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.

I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.

We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.

The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the referendum was betrayed.

So allowing a democratic vote on the implementation of Brexit amounts to ‘betrayal’ ?

In what way does the country owe allegiance to a referendum vote ?

Yes.

Anyone with a sense of honour would not have to ask that question

Pffft.

nunuone said:

AlastairMeeks said:

He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.

Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.

His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.

Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.

Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate.
FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well I’m going canvassing in Yorkshire today.

I’ll let you how bad it is for the blue meanies.

Which party will you be canvassing for ?

Ruth Davidson’s Tory party.

Sounds like a bit of trek from the North.

Have fun! Wrap up warm.

It’s in Yorkshire. I’m in Andrea Jenkyns/ Stuart Andrew territory

malcolmg said:

nunuone said:

AlastairMeeks said:

He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.

Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.

His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.

Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.

Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate.
FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.

It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?

A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.

I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.

We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.

A crap deal that made sure we would get shafted on trade etc when they did a real deal and not a treaty. Tories are easily pleased, happy to sell out the public as long as they can make cash out of it..

TGOHF said:

I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?

Many Remainers are decent people but there is sadly a minority who have fallen for the abusive Twitter mindset. I think it says more about them than those they are insulting.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well I’m going canvassing in Yorkshire today.

I’ll let you how bad it is for the blue meanies.

Which party will you be canvassing for ?

Ruth Davidson’s Tory party.

Sounds like a bit of trek from the North.

Have fun! Wrap up warm.

It’s in Yorkshire. I’m in Andrea Jenkyns/ Stuart Andrew territory

Yikes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well I’m going canvassing in Yorkshire today.

I’ll let you how bad it is for the blue meanies.

Which party will you be canvassing for ?

Ruth Davidson’s Tory party.

LOL, what a waste of time that will be

williamglenn said:

isam said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?

A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.

I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.

We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.

The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the refeeendum was betrayed.

It wasn't "allowed"; it was legislated for by a parliament elected after the referendum. The parties put forward manifestos that made pledges about the Brexit deal. Labour said they wanted the benefits of the single market and customs union. The Tories said we needed to know the future relationship at the end of the Article 50 period.

What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.

Brexit hasn't failed for the simple reason that it hasn't been tried yet.

JackJack said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?

A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.

I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.

We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.

The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the refeeendum was betrayed.

It wasn't "allowed"; it was legislated for by a parliament elected after the referendum. The parties put forward manifestos that made pledges about the Brexit deal. Labour said they wanted the benefits of the single market and customs union. The Tories said we needed to know the future relationship at the end of the Article 50 period.

What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.

Brexit hasn't failed for the simple reason that it hasn't been tried yet.

So once it is, it will ?

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

nunuone said:

AlastairMeeks said:

He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.

Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.

His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.

Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.

Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate.
FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.

It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.

It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.

Mr. Eagles, it's a little cool but nice and sunny, and is likely to stay that way.

Anyway, might see you later

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well I’m going canvassing in Yorkshire today.

I’ll let you how bad it is for the blue meanies.

Which party will you be canvassing for ?

Ruth Davidson’s Tory party.

I’d vote for that.

Shame it’s not on the ballot.

There was me thinking you had a modicum of intelligence Nigel, but that makes me wonder.

Sean_F said:

Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.

If the mainstream parties don't cater to their voters, the voters will go elsewhere.

May is a busted flush. Her support has now dried up even in the sections of the party who were still supporting her. But if they get in a new leader who ensures Brexit happens and has a few other populist policies,, they can pull the rug out from under Farage/UKIP, unite right wing voters and win a majority.

isam said:

Nigelb said:

isam said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?

A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.

I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.

We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.

The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the referendum was betrayed.

So allowing a democratic vote on the implementation of Brexit amounts to ‘betrayal’ ?

In what way does the country owe allegiance to a referendum vote ?

Yes.

Anyone with a sense of honour would not have to ask that question

The logic of your first answer is that a minority government, elected since the referendum, gets to choose the manner in which we leave without consulting the legislature.

The logic of the second is that your believe democracy finished immediately after the referendum vote.

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

nunuone said:

AlastairMeeks said:

He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.

Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.

His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.

Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.

Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate.
FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.

It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.

It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.

He went to Harvard, went to Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship, worked at McKinsey, was elected the youngest mayor of an American city with a population over 100,000 and he’s served in the US Navy Reserve including a tour in Afghanistan.

How does that compare to Nicola Sturgeon’s CV?

JackJack said:

Sean_F said:

Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.

If the mainstream parties don't cater to their voters, the voters will go elsewhere.

May is a busted flush. Her support has now dried up even in the sections of the party who were still supporting her. But if they get in a new leader who ensures Brexit happens and has a few other populist policies,, they can pull the rug out from under Farage/UKIP, unite right wing voters and win a majority.

But how do you ensure that Brexit happens ?

You can either approve May's Deal as it is, you can soften May's Deal with a CU or you can go all out for a No Deal exit.

Now which of those is most likely to get approved ?

This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?

Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.

The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.

Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/apr/12/rfu-will-speak-to-billy-vunipola-social-media-israel-folau-england-saracens

Premium economy: is it worth the extra expense?

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2019/apr/13/premium-economy-is-it-worth-the-extra-expense

What is this premium economy they speak of?

dixiedean said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1116978179565137920

There is a question I have that nobody else seems to be interested in. What does Roger Scruton know about housing?

He is a "world leading expert on aesthetics". His appointment says a lot about housing policy.

I know a lot of housing stock is poor quality, but I didn't think you needed to be rendered unconscious to cope with it.

TGOHF said:

I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?

Not a Blackadder fan then?

Dura_Ace said:

TGOHF said:

I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?

Savage mockery is default mode of communication that the slines employ between themselves. Your comment betrays your elitism.

Punching up; punching down.

viewcode said:

Quick question. In his letter Matthew Goodwin states that "...today the average voter is looking not only for economic prosperity but a greater sense of cultural security...". Is this actually true? I'm happy to believe it's true of many voters, but the average overall?

For him to frame law and order issues as being about "cultural security" tells you all you need to know about Goodwin's worldview.

TheScreamingEagles said:

This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?

Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.

The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.

Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/apr/12/rfu-will-speak-to-billy-vunipola-social-media-israel-folau-england-saracens

Suspend all of those and someone will allege discrimination against players from a racial / cultural background.

Still it would be one way of stopping the big countries from stealing players from the South Pacific Islands.

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well I’m going canvassing in Yorkshire today.

I’ll let you how bad it is for the blue meanies.

Which party will you be canvassing for ?

Ruth Davidson’s Tory party.

I’d vote for that.

Shame it’s not on the ballot.

There was me thinking you had a modicum of intelligence Nigel, but that makes me wonder.

So which of the English based alternatives would you favour ?

Now you set me an impossible task as they are all similar to Roothie.

Roger said:

If Remain can persuade the 6 million petition signers that they can serve a purpose by voting for one of the progressive parties they could do very well indeed. I shouldn't imagine more than 10 million will vote in total

I suppose that depends a lot on how many of those 6 million are eligible to vote.

williamglenn said:

viewcode said:

Quick question. In his letter Matthew Goodwin states that "...today the average voter is looking not only for economic prosperity but a greater sense of cultural security...". Is this actually true? I'm happy to believe it's true of many voters, but the average overall?

For him to frame law and order issues as being about "cultural security" tells you all you need to know about Goodwin's worldview.

I know about Goodwin's worldview - I've read his stuff - but my question was about his statement about the average voter. I'd like to know if that statement is true.

Nigelb said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The current frontrunner hasn't declared for the race and has form for taking a lot of time to decide not to run. Maybe he's waiting to see if a strong candidate will emerge who he can support? Is there a benefit to Biden in delaying entering the race?

I think the market might have already priced in a winning performance in the first debate. If he disappoints, or someone else notably excels, then there could be a major lengthening in his odds.

The benefit so far has been to avoid posting fundraising figures for the end of March, which might have been embarrassing, and giving himself less time to gaffe. As front runner, he hasn’t had much to gain by declaring early, and plenty to lose.

My guess is that he’s going to find things start to become much more difficult once he declares.

The debates are going to be interesting, but there’s an awful lot of candidates qualifying for them. As we saw with Trump, being a dominant personality is of more importance than any particular accomplishment in debate, when you’re in a crowd.

So that sounds like it is a sign of weakness.

I don't think Biden will run.

That would change everything.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1116994815114264576?s=21

I believe it.

Remain voters should have nothing to do with Labour in the European elections.

Theuniondivvie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?

Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.

The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.

Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/apr/12/rfu-will-speak-to-billy-vunipola-social-media-israel-folau-england-saracens

I am not sure I would want to get on the wrong side of the Tuilagi family....

In addition to Manu, there is his brothers, Alesana Tuilagi, Henry Tuilagi, Freddie Tuilagi, Sanele Vavae Tuilagi.

I wonder what are the statistical chances of at least one of them being gay?

Statistically one of them will have had a homosexual experience.

In my experience the biggest homophobes turn out to be gay.

Roger said:

If Remain can persuade the 6 million petition signers that they can serve a purpose by voting for one of the progressive parties they could do very well indeed. I shouldn't imagine more than 10 million will vote in total

16 million voted in 2014. it will probably be more this time (although, treat pollsters certainty to vote numbers with a pinch of salt.)

dyedwoolie said:

Sean_F said:

Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.

Who's holding on?

Probably Chris Chope.

Cyclefree said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

nunuone said:

AlastairMeeks said:

He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.

Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.

His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.

Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.

Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate.
FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.

It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.

It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.

That is simply not true. @RoyalBlue has listed his CV above. He appears articulate and thoughtful when interviewed. Add to that the fact that he is a practising Christian, important in the US, and that he has some tangible achievements to his name during his Mayoralty and there is some substance there. Whether it is enough or whether it will all fall apart under scrutiny who knows. But for the moment he appears to be someone fresh and interesting from the next generation who appears to have a commendably old-fashioned approach to serving his country. In these times that is something hopeful.

WOW, he actually mentioned it 10 seconds ago but there have been posts on here for months and the only points ever mentioned were mayor and gay. I just wonder why it has to be mentioned constantly when it has no bearing on suitability for being President , no other candidate ever has their sexuality mentioned.

SouthamObserver said:

For those interested, the latest Spanish tracking poll data. The GE takes place on 28th April.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1117003275033825281?s=21

Do you know how that would translate in terms of seats?

Thread

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1117005420084723712?s=21

Looking at the Yougov numbers:

51% of people who voted Conservative in 2017 say they'd vote UKIP/Brexit in the Euros. 38% say they'd vote Conservative. The party wins 15% among Remain voters, 18% among Leave voters.

54% of people who voted Labour in 2017 say they'd vote Labour in the Euros. The party wins 37% among Remain supporters, 11% among Leave voters. I expect that Labour is down to its core vote among Leave voters, but could still lose ground to anti-Brexit parties among Remain voters.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

For those interested, the latest Spanish tracking poll data. The GE takes place on 28th April.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1117003275033825281?s=21

Do you know how that would translate in terms of seats?

By their own calculation it is about 120 PSOE to 80 PP, 35 Podemos and 60 Citizens, with 176 needed for a majority.

How many would Vox win?

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

For those interested, the latest Spanish tracking poll data. The GE takes place on 28th April.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1117003275033825281?s=21

Do you know how that would translate in terms of seats?

It’s very complicated. Here’s a seat projection based on one poll that is quite similar to the tracker (though with PSOE slightly lower and PP slightly higher). 176 seats is an overall majority of one.

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1116578306248175618?s=21

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1117007682333020160?s=21

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

For those interested, the latest Spanish tracking poll data. The GE takes place on 28th April.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1117003275033825281?s=21

Do you know how that would translate in terms of seats?

By their own calculation it is about 120 PSOE to 80 PP, 35 Podemos and 60 Citizens, with 176 needed for a majority.

How many would Vox win?

20-25. So not even a PP deal with the devil would necessarily produce a majority. It's probably a PSOE minority at this poimt.

Theuniondivvie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?

Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.

The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.

Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/apr/12/rfu-will-speak-to-billy-vunipola-social-media-israel-folau-england-saracens

I am not sure I would want to get on the wrong side of the Tuilagi family....

In addition to Manu, there is his brothers, Alesana Tuilagi, Henry Tuilagi, Freddie Tuilagi, Sanele Vavae Tuilagi.

I wonder what the statistical chances are of at least one of them being gay?

If the probability of a randomly-chosen person being gay is X (where X is a number between 0 and 1) then the probability of at least one of a group of N randomly-chosen people, each independent of each other, being gay is:

1 - the probability of all of them being straight, which is

1 - [(1-X)^N]

So if the probability of a person being gay is 5% and we have 4 people, then X=0.05 and N=4, so the probability is 1-(0.95^4), which is 1-0.85, which is 0.15.

So if we have four randomly-chosen people from a representative population, each independent of each other, and the probability of such a person being gay is 5%, then the probability that at least one of them is gay is 15%.

I now return you to the debate about what is the actual probability of a person being gay, and the related debate about siblings, both of which affect the answer and are outside the scope of this board

[I apologise in advance for any calculation errors, which will no doubt haunt me... ]

viewcode said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?

Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.

The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.

Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/apr/12/rfu-will-speak-to-billy-vunipola-social-media-israel-folau-england-saracens

I am not sure I would want to get on the wrong side of the Tuilagi family....

In addition to Manu, there is his brothers, Alesana Tuilagi, Henry Tuilagi, Freddie Tuilagi, Sanele Vavae Tuilagi.

I wonder what the statistical chances are of at least one of them being gay?

If the probability of a randomly-chosen person being gay is X (where X is a number between 0 and 1) then the probability of at least one of a group of N randomly-chosen people, each independent of each other, being gay is:

1 - the probability of all of them being straight, which is

1 - [(1-X)^N]

So if the probability of a person being gay is 5% and we have 4 people, then X=0.05 and N=4, so the probability is 1-(0.95^4), which is 1-0.85, which is 0.15.

So if we have four randomly-chosen people from a representative population, each independent of each other, and the probability of such a person being gay is 5%, then the probability that at least one of them is gay is 15%.

I now return you to the debate about what is the actual probability of a person being gay, and the related debate about siblings, both of which affect the answer and are outside the scope of this board

[I apologise in advance for any calculation errors, which will no doubt haunt me... ]

Thanks (I think).

Nothing is outside the scope of this board!

https://twitter.com/jarvisdupont/status/1117011063923531776?s=21

https://twitter.com/jarvisdupont/status/1117011066549166080?s=21

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1116987840930418688

Tories plus Brexit Party on 36%, 4% ahead of Labour

Perhaps the next election will lead to a hung parliament with Nigel Farage holding the balance of power?

You can see why the big two will never agree to PR.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1117012050213916672

Roger said:

Interesting that in America a gay man could become president whereas the Brunai Royal Family has just decreed that homosexuality should be punishable by stoning.

Almost the entire Brunai royal family went to Millfield. One shared a room with me. Happily I can confirm absolute probity during the entirity of that year otherwise I would have no hesitation in reporting him for a retrospective stoning.

Roger being educated at Millfield I'm somewhat surprised that he wasn't stoned at some time or other ....

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1117012050213916672

FIgures he would like Cersei Lannister the most, a character not as smart as they think they are, and whose actions have been heavily self defeating for the things they supposedly cared about.