I think that would produce a result of something like:
Labour 20 Conservative 14 Brexit 14 UKIP 10 Green6 Lib Dem 2 Change 1 SNP2 Plaid 1 Northern Ireland 3
In terms of maximising representation at regional level, it's an almost perfect result for anti-EU parties, at the same time as wasting a huge number of votes for pro-EU parties. Either one of the pro-EU parties has to break out of the pack, or they all have to pull votes away from Labour.
Does the seat allocation actually matter, though? What everyone will be looking at is the Leave/Remain split. If the election does turn into a quasi-referendum, Labour could find itself losing votes.
The UK sending 38 MEPs who are somewhere between lukewarm and absolute zero on the EU - many wanting to make life as awkward as they can in Brussels - is what Brussels will see.
Brussels is used to that. If they take their seats, most anti-EU UK MEPs will do what they’ve always done: nothing, except make the odd speech.
I know you'll know this, but for those unaware, politically Yorkshire gets bluer to the north and redder to the south, with West Yorkshire full of marginals, the People's Republic of South Yorkshire, and the Toryland National Park in North Yorkshire.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
He is the subject of my first ever political bet, courtesy of my son who first mentioned him to me ages ago.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the refeeendum was betrayed.
It wasn't "allowed"; it was legislated for by a parliament elected after the referendum. The parties put forward manifestos that made pledges about the Brexit deal. Labour said they wanted the benefits of the single market and customs union. The Tories said we needed to know the future relationship at the end of the Article 50 period.
What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.
Allowing a group of people at odds with the country on the subject a meaningful vote betrayed the referendum
Some people are determined to feel betrayed.
Betrayal was always going to be one of the consequences of the Leave vote because what was promised was undeliverable. We have not yet left because Tory and DUP leave-supporting MPs decided May’s deal betrayed the 2016 result.
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
A crap deal that made sure we would get shafted on trade etc when they did a real deal and not a treaty. Tories are easily pleased, happy to sell out the public as long as they can make cash out of it..
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?
Many Remainers are decent people but there is sadly a minority who have fallen for the abusive Twitter mindset. I think it says more about them than those they are insulting.
I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?
They wouldn’t say it to their faces.
I think it would be a good idea for students to do a day a week at a rough boxing gym or on a building site to see how their supercilious attitude goes down in the real world.
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
A crap deal that made sure we would get shafted on trade etc when they did a real deal and not a treaty. Tories are easily pleased, happy to sell out the public as long as they can make cash out of it..
This. It was a deal hatched in secret and a terrible deal that gave away a lot in return for a maybe.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the refeeendum was betrayed.
It wasn't "allowed"; it was legislated for by a parliament elected after the referendum. The parties put forward manifestos that made pledges about the Brexit deal. Labour said they wanted the benefits of the single market and customs union. The Tories said we needed to know the future relationship at the end of the Article 50 period.
What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.
Brexit hasn't failed for the simple reason that it hasn't been tried yet.
If Remain can persuade the 6 million petition signers that they can serve a purpose by voting for one of the progressive parties they could do very well indeed. I shouldn't imagine more than 10 million will vote in total
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the refeeendum was betrayed.
It wasn't "allowed"; it was legislated for by a parliament elected after the referendum. The parties put forward manifestos that made pledges about the Brexit deal. Labour said they wanted the benefits of the single market and customs union. The Tories said we needed to know the future relationship at the end of the Article 50 period.
What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.
Brexit hasn't failed for the simple reason that it hasn't been tried yet.
I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.
It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
If the mainstream parties don't cater to their voters, the voters will go elsewhere.
May is a busted flush. Her support has now dried up even in the sections of the party who were still supporting her. But if they get in a new leader who ensures Brexit happens and has a few other populist policies,, they can pull the rug out from under Farage/UKIP, unite right wing voters and win a majority.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
Who's holding on?
Mark Francois. You know what they say about cockroaches
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the referendum was betrayed.
So allowing a democratic vote on the implementation of Brexit amounts to ‘betrayal’ ?
In what way does the country owe allegiance to a referendum vote ?
Yes.
Anyone with a sense of honour would not have to ask that question
The logic of your first answer is that a minority government, elected since the referendum, gets to choose the manner in which we leave without consulting the legislature.
The logic of the second is that your believe democracy finished immediately after the referendum vote.
I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?
Savage mockery is default mode of communication that the slines employ between themselves. Your comment betrays your elitism.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.
It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.
He went to Harvard, went to Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship, worked at McKinsey, was elected the youngest mayor of an American city with a population over 100,000 and he’s served in the US Navy Reserve including a tour in Afghanistan.
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the refeeendum was betrayed.
It wasn't "allowed"; it was legislated for by a parliament elected after the referendum. The parties put forward manifestos that made pledges about the Brexit deal. Labour said they wanted the benefits of the single market and customs union. The Tories said we needed to know the future relationship at the end of the Article 50 period.
What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.
Brexit hasn't failed for the simple reason that it hasn't been tried yet.
Conservative-minded people treat such revolutionary rhetoric with nothing but contempt.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
If the mainstream parties don't cater to their voters, the voters will go elsewhere.
May is a busted flush. Her support has now dried up even in the sections of the party who were still supporting her. But if they get in a new leader who ensures Brexit happens and has a few other populist policies,, they can pull the rug out from under Farage/UKIP, unite right wing voters and win a majority.
But how do you ensure that Brexit happens ?
You can either approve May's Deal as it is, you can soften May's Deal with a CU or you can go all out for a No Deal exit.
Now which of those is most likely to get approved ?
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?
Quick question. In his letter Matthew Goodwin states that "...today the average voter is looking not only for economic prosperity but a greater sense of cultural security...". Is this actually true? I'm happy to believe it's true of many voters, but the average overall?
I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?
Savage mockery is default mode of communication that the slines employ between themselves. Your comment betrays your elitism.
One interesting detail from the Yougov Euro elections poll is that the Conservatives are on just 12% with men, but 22% with women. There's a similar, but less marked gender split in their Westminster support at 24:33.
Therefore all those anecdotes along the lines of "no-one I talk to will vote Tory" will mean a bit less than normal unless the people being talked to are half female.
Quick question. In his letter Matthew Goodwin states that "...today the average voter is looking not only for economic prosperity but a greater sense of cultural security...". Is this actually true? I'm happy to believe it's true of many voters, but the average overall?
For him to frame law and order issues as being about "cultural security" tells you all you need to know about Goodwin's worldview.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
Who knew that Israel Folau lives in Scotland?
What are you talking about you cretin. I asked a serious question , obviously a moron like you could not answer. Every post goes on about him being gay, I seriously asked why that would make him a President , similar to my example of prostitute or hetrosexual or whatever. Sexual orientation has no bearing on what would make a person suitable to be a President. Of course it brings out the swivel eyed nutjobs like you trying to pretend I was commenting on the homosexuality rather than the question as to why it is the only thing mentioned about him. Crawl back under your rock bigot.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.
It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.
That is simply not true. @RoyalBlue has listed his CV above. He appears articulate and thoughtful when interviewed. Add to that the fact that he is a practising Christian, important in the US, and that he has some tangible achievements to his name during his Mayoralty and there is some substance there. Whether it is enough or whether it will all fall apart under scrutiny who knows. But for the moment he appears to be someone fresh and interesting from the next generation who appears to have a commendably old-fashioned approach to serving his country. In these times that is something hopeful.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
If Remain can persuade the 6 million petition signers that they can serve a purpose by voting for one of the progressive parties they could do very well indeed. I shouldn't imagine more than 10 million will vote in total
I suppose that depends a lot on how many of those 6 million are eligible to vote.
I must say I’m curious as to why this Remainer tactic of mocking the lower classes is being continued at pace - I’m not convinced it’s effective - or is it just a comfort blanket ?
Savage mockery is default mode of communication that the slines employ between themselves. Your comment betrays your elitism.
Quick question. In his letter Matthew Goodwin states that "...today the average voter is looking not only for economic prosperity but a greater sense of cultural security...". Is this actually true? I'm happy to believe it's true of many voters, but the average overall?
For him to frame law and order issues as being about "cultural security" tells you all you need to know about Goodwin's worldview.
I know about Goodwin's worldview - I've read his stuff - but my question was about his statement about the average voter. I'd like to know if that statement is true.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.
It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.
He went to Harvard, went to Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship, worked at McKinsey, was elected the youngest mayor of an American city with a population over 100,000 and he’s served in the US Navy Reserve including a tour in Afghanistan.
How does that compare to Nicola Sturgeon’s CV?
You almost posted an intelligent and informative reply there that was what I would expect to see about him, however your xenopbia and bigotry got the better of you and you could not help but revert to nasty little Englander mode. PS: I can only assume you are either a juvenile or incredibly immature
The current frontrunner hasn't declared for the race and has form for taking a lot of time to decide not to run. Maybe he's waiting to see if a strong candidate will emerge who he can support? Is there a benefit to Biden in delaying entering the race?
I think the market might have already priced in a winning performance in the first debate. If he disappoints, or someone else notably excels, then there could be a major lengthening in his odds.
The benefit so far has been to avoid posting fundraising figures for the end of March, which might have been embarrassing, and giving himself less time to gaffe. As front runner, he hasn’t had much to gain by declaring early, and plenty to lose.
My guess is that he’s going to find things start to become much more difficult once he declares.
The debates are going to be interesting, but there’s an awful lot of candidates qualifying for them. As we saw with Trump, being a dominant personality is of more importance than any particular accomplishment in debate, when you’re in a crowd.
Very worrying polling for the Tories. Perhaps those of us who said that failing to deliver Brexit guarantees a Corbyn Government were right after all?
A No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn premiership.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
We could have left with a deal by now, if it weren’t for the stupidity of 40 of our MPs.
The stupidity was allowing the meaningful vote. As soon as that was permissible, the refeeendum was betrayed.
It wasn't "allowed"; it was legislated for by a parliament elected after the referendum. The parties put forward manifestos that made pledges about the Brexit deal. Labour said they wanted the benefits of the single market and customs union. The Tories said we needed to know the future relationship at the end of the Article 50 period.
What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.
Brexit hasn't failed for the simple reason that it hasn't been tried yet.
Conservative-minded people treat such revolutionary rhetoric with nothing but contempt.
Perhaps our politics is now explained by the fact that middle class people who have no ideology, and vote Conservative as a result, are not very numerous any longer. Most voters are ideological.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
If Remain can persuade the 6 million petition signers that they can serve a purpose by voting for one of the progressive parties they could do very well indeed. I shouldn't imagine more than 10 million will vote in total
I suppose that depends a lot on how many of those 6 million are eligible to vote.
Well I am, as is my wife our friends, the woman who runs the shop next to ours and her boyfriend. And so are my sister and her husband. The people from my town who went up to London to protest are all eligible to vote as well. So I'd say quite a lot.
If Remain can persuade the 6 million petition signers that they can serve a purpose by voting for one of the progressive parties they could do very well indeed. I shouldn't imagine more than 10 million will vote in total
16 million voted in 2014. it will probably be more this time (although, treat pollsters certainty to vote numbers with a pinch of salt.)
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
Quick question. In his letter Matthew Goodwin states that "...today the average voter is looking not only for economic prosperity but a greater sense of cultural security...". Is this actually true? I'm happy to believe it's true of many voters, but the average overall?
For him to frame law and order issues as being about "cultural security" tells you all you need to know about Goodwin's worldview.
I know about Goodwin's worldview - I've read his stuff - but my question was about his statement about the average voter. I'd like to know if that statement is true.
The dominant meme of our time is 'people like us not people like them'.
The combination of a fragmentation of society and economic stagnation means that for one group to gain another group must lose and this can be justified by the 'othering' of 'people like them'.
He’s rising in the polls, getting lots of favourable media coverage, breaking out into public awareness and the money is flowing in. His odds aren’t that silly. He’s got momentum.
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
Mayor Pete being gay, I feel is a positive in a Democratic primary that takes intersectionality very seriously.
Pretty poor when the only good point in you being president is that you are gay. Has the guy not got any talents or things that may make him a presidential candidate. FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
It would be if that were the only point to his candidacy. Manifestly it isn’t.
It is all that is mentioned on here constantly, only thing I see in every single post is that he is gay, no other qualities whatsoever mentioned.
That is simply not true. @RoyalBlue has listed his CV above. He appears articulate and thoughtful when interviewed. Add to that the fact that he is a practising Christian, important in the US, and that he has some tangible achievements to his name during his Mayoralty and there is some substance there. Whether it is enough or whether it will all fall apart under scrutiny who knows. But for the moment he appears to be someone fresh and interesting from the next generation who appears to have a commendably old-fashioned approach to serving his country. In these times that is something hopeful.
WOW, he actually mentioned it 10 seconds ago but there have been posts on here for months and the only points ever mentioned were mayor and gay. I just wonder why it has to be mentioned constantly when it has no bearing on suitability for being President , no other candidate ever has their sexuality mentioned.
Remain voters should have nothing to do with Labour in the European elections.
That depends on whether they have a confirmatory vote as part of that. Poll after poll shows Labour voters by a huge majority think Leaving was wrong . Northern Labour MPs need to stop peddling the fantasy that their seats were won on the back of Labour Leave voters .
51% of people who voted Conservative in 2017 say they'd vote UKIP/Brexit in the Euros. 38% say they'd vote Conservative. The party wins 15% among Remain voters, 18% among Leave voters.
54% of people who voted Labour in 2017 say they'd vote Labour in the Euros. The party wins 37% among Remain supporters, 11% among Leave voters. I expect that Labour is down to its core vote among Leave voters, but could still lose ground to anti-Brexit parties among Remain voters.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
Do you know how that would translate in terms of seats?
It’s very complicated. Here’s a seat projection based on one poll that is quite similar to the tracker (though with PSOE slightly lower and PP slightly higher). 176 seats is an overall majority of one.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
I am not sure I would want to get on the wrong side of the Tuilagi family....
In addition to Manu, there is his brothers, Alesana Tuilagi, Henry Tuilagi, Freddie Tuilagi, Sanele Vavae Tuilagi.
I wonder what the statistical chances are of at least one of them being gay?
If the probability of a randomly-chosen person being gay is X (where X is a number between 0 and 1) then the probability of at least one of a group of N randomly-chosen people, each independent of each other, being gay is:
1 - the probability of all of them being straight, which is
1 - [(1-X)^N]
So if the probability of a person being gay is 5% and we have 4 people, then X=0.05 and N=4, so the probability is 1-(0.95^4), which is 1-0.85, which is 0.15.
So if we have four randomly-chosen people from a representative population, each independent of each other, and the probability of such a person being gay is 5%, then the probability that at least one of them is gay is 15%.
I now return you to the debate about what is the actual probability of a person being gay, and the related debate about siblings, both of which affect the answer and are outside the scope of this board
[I apologise in advance for any calculation errors, which will no doubt haunt me... ]
If he is on 8-12% with at least half the electorate yet to form a view, does that not suggest he should be hitting around 20% once things settle down. Given he interviews particularly well I would see him as third favourite behind Biden and Sanders for the nomination. Being gay will probably cost him a few votes somewhere, but being ex military and religious will significantly limit that compared to other potential gay candidates.
In a close two or three runner race it would be more important if say 5% wouldn't vote for him due to his sexuality, whereas in this multi runner event it is more about being able to positively attract and maintain 30-40% as Trump showed last time.
Warren, Booker & Harris have had plenty of publicity the last couple of years without breaking through. O'Rourke is another with a decent chance, Yang probably too geeky. With doubts over Biden and Sanders, happy being green on the Buttigieg and O'Rourke at this stage.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
I am not sure I would want to get on the wrong side of the Tuilagi family....
In addition to Manu, there is his brothers, Alesana Tuilagi, Henry Tuilagi, Freddie Tuilagi, Sanele Vavae Tuilagi.
I wonder what the statistical chances are of at least one of them being gay?
If the probability of a randomly-chosen person being gay is X (where X is a number between 0 and 1) then the probability of at least one of a group of N randomly-chosen people, each independent of each other, being gay is:
1 - the probability of all of them being straight, which is
1 - [(1-X)^N]
So if the probability of a person being gay is 5% and we have 4 people, then X=0.05 and N=4, so the probability is 1-(0.95^4), which is 1-0.85, which is 0.15.
So if we have four randomly-chosen people from a representative population, each independent of each other, and the probability of such a person being gay is 5%, then the probability that at least one of them is gay is 15%.
I now return you to the debate about what is the actual probability of a person being gay, and the related debate about siblings, both of which affect the answer and are outside the scope of this board
[I apologise in advance for any calculation errors, which will no doubt haunt me... ]
Do you know how that would translate in terms of seats?
By their own calculation it is about 120 PSOE to 80 PP, 35 Podemos and 60 Citizens, with 176 needed for a majority.
How many would Vox win?
20-25. So not even a PP deal with the devil would necessarily produce a majority. It's probably a PSOE minority at this poimt.
Yep, I think so. The alternative is some kind of PP+Cs+Vox deal, but that only begins to be possible if between them they get to 176 seats. And even then it might well produce a split in C’s. What’s interesting is that PP+Vox basically equals what PP got in the last GE. Unlike in many other countries in Europe, the emergence of a far right populist party in Spain has not had any impact on votes for the left. I think that’s because Vox is a very traditional machista, toros, anti-autonomy party rather than one that focuses on the economy.
Do you know how that would translate in terms of seats?
It’s very complicated. Here’s a seat projection based on one poll that is quite similar to the tracker (though with PSOE slightly lower and PP slightly higher). 176 seats is an overall majority of one.
This year’s rugby world cup is going to be won by the side with the fewest homophobic players isn’t it?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
Interesting that in America a gay man could become president whereas the Brunai Royal Family has just decreed that homosexuality should be punishable by stoning.
Almost the entire Brunai royal family went to Millfield. One shared a room with me. Happily I can confirm absolute probity during the entirity of that year otherwise I would have no hesitation in reporting him for a retrospective stoning.
Roger being educated at Millfield I'm somewhat surprised that he wasn't stoned at some time or other ....
FIgures he would like Cersei Lannister the most, a character not as smart as they think they are, and whose actions have been heavily self defeating for the things they supposedly cared about.
Comments
Have fun! Wrap up warm.
I know you'll know this, but for those unaware, politically Yorkshire gets bluer to the north and redder to the south, with West Yorkshire full of marginals, the People's Republic of South Yorkshire, and the Toryland National Park in North Yorkshire.
FFS. Next we will be getting told that xxx being a prostitute is a bonus for her candidacy.
Shame it’s not on the ballot.
Just as a bit of fun, if you add the Brexit/UKIP numbers and put them into Baxter, the Euros would give a result of UKIP/Brexit 297, Labour 244, Lib Dem 33, SNP 53, Conservative 1.
I think it would be a good idea for students to do a day a week at a rough boxing gym or on a building site to see how their supercilious attitude goes down in the real world.
Now joint second.
Anyway, might see you later
May is a busted flush. Her support has now dried up even in the sections of the party who were still supporting her. But if they get in a new leader who ensures Brexit happens and has a few other populist policies,, they can pull the rug out from under Farage/UKIP, unite right wing voters and win a majority.
The logic of the second is that your believe democracy finished immediately after the referendum vote.
How does that compare to Nicola Sturgeon’s CV?
You can either approve May's Deal as it is, you can soften May's Deal with a CU or you can go all out for a No Deal exit.
Now which of those is most likely to get approved ?
Billy Vunipola is facing potential disciplinary action from the Rugby Football Union and Saracens after supporting Israel Folau’s controversial anti-gay comments by claiming “man was made for woman”.
The RFU will summon Vunipola to question him over a social media post made in which he defends Folau, who is facing the sack by Rugby Australia for his claims that “hell awaits” gay people. Saracens have stated they will deal with the “very serious matter” internally.
Compounding the RFU’s headache, the No 8’s post was liked by fellow England internationals Manu Tuilagi, Nathan Hughes, Nick Isiekwe and Courtney Lawes, who replied with his own message defending Vunipola’s decision to offer his opinion. It remains to be seen whether they and other Premiership players, including his childhood friend and Wales No 8 Taulupe Faletau, who also “liked” the post, will face further action.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/apr/12/rfu-will-speak-to-billy-vunipola-social-media-israel-folau-england-saracens
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2019/apr/13/premium-economy-is-it-worth-the-extra-expense
What is this premium economy they speak of?
In addition to Manu, there is his brothers, Alesana Tuilagi, Henry Tuilagi, Freddie Tuilagi, Sanele Vavae Tuilagi.
Quick question. In his letter Matthew Goodwin states that "...today the average voter is looking not only for economic prosperity but a greater sense of cultural security...". Is this actually true? I'm happy to believe it's true of many voters, but the average overall?
Therefore all those anecdotes along the lines of "no-one I talk to will vote Tory" will mean a bit less than normal unless the people being talked to are half female.
Of course it brings out the swivel eyed nutjobs like you trying to pretend I was commenting on the homosexuality rather than the question as to why it is the only thing mentioned about him.
Crawl back under your rock bigot.
Still it would be one way of stopping the big countries from stealing players from the South Pacific Islands.
PS: I can only assume you are either a juvenile or incredibly immature
I don't think Biden will run.
That would change everything.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1117003275033825281?s=21
Remain voters should have nothing to do with Labour in the European elections.
In my experience the biggest homophobes turn out to be gay.
16 million voted in 2014. it will probably be more this time (although, treat pollsters certainty to vote numbers with a pinch of salt.)
Probably Chris Chope.
The combination of a fragmentation of society and economic stagnation means that for one group to gain another group must lose and this can be justified by the 'othering' of 'people like them'.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1117005420084723712?s=21
51% of people who voted Conservative in 2017 say they'd vote UKIP/Brexit in the Euros. 38% say they'd vote Conservative. The party wins 15% among Remain voters, 18% among Leave voters.
54% of people who voted Labour in 2017 say they'd vote Labour in the Euros. The party wins 37% among Remain supporters, 11% among Leave voters. I expect that Labour is down to its core vote among Leave voters, but could still lose ground to anti-Brexit parties among Remain voters.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1116578306248175618?s=21
1 - the probability of all of them being straight, which is
1 - [(1-X)^N]
So if the probability of a person being gay is 5% and we have 4 people, then X=0.05 and N=4, so the probability is 1-(0.95^4), which is 1-0.85, which is 0.15.
So if we have four randomly-chosen people from a representative population, each independent of each other, and the probability of such a person being gay is 5%, then the probability that at least one of them is gay is 15%.
I now return you to the debate about what is the actual probability of a person being gay, and the related debate about siblings, both of which affect the answer and are outside the scope of this board
[I apologise in advance for any calculation errors, which will no doubt haunt me...
In a close two or three runner race it would be more important if say 5% wouldn't vote for him due to his sexuality, whereas in this multi runner event it is more about being able to positively attract and maintain 30-40% as Trump showed last time.
Warren, Booker & Harris have had plenty of publicity the last couple of years without breaking through. O'Rourke is another with a decent chance, Yang probably too geeky. With doubts over Biden and Sanders, happy being green on the Buttigieg and O'Rourke at this stage.
Nothing is outside the scope of this board!
https://twitter.com/jarvisdupont/status/1117011066549166080?s=21
Curious to see a city as large as Madrid still voting right. Looks more like the pattern in Brazil than the rest of Europe.