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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a f
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a favourite
Precedent is a good guide but a bad determinant. To believe that something cannot happen because it hasn’t previously happened is to end up being unpleasantly surprised. It’s therefore possible that the Democrats could look past the current or former governors, senators and vice-president in order to select as their candidate someone who’s not just the mayor of a city the size of Chesterfield but who’s still in his thirties and gay. Possible but surely unlikely, you’d think.
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Edit: Doh, that's a poll not odds
It's almost too good...
Being gay is a plus not a minus. By the end of his run political palaeontologists will be looking at the political corpses his sexuality has attracted in the way their science cousins look at the tar pits of La Brea.
His price may well be a bit too short now but it looks like it’s shortening a way yet. I expect I’ll be laying him eventually but he is going to continue moving through the field. He’s got talent and a distinctive pitch. No doubt it will be tested soon enough.
As Alastair says he will probably shorten further and then I will lay off a little.
The first debate will be fascinating.
Almost the entire Brunai royal family went to Millfield. One shared a room with me. Happily I can confirm absolute probity during the entirity of that year otherwise I would have no hesitation in reporting him for a retrospective stoning.
It appears that it’s possible to run as an individual candidate in the EU elections, although there’s a hefty £5k deposit to find.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/candidate-or-agent/european-parliamentary-elections
I wonder if we are about to see a few prominent people crowdfunding for campaign funds on a ‘F the politicians’ platform?
I believe that Mr @Lennon, of this parish, stood for the Pirate party in the last general election.
Btw, it's interesting that you can have a black or gay US President now, but I doubt you could have an atheist.
Labour 20
Conservative 14
Brexit 14
UKIP 10
Green6
Lib Dem 2
Change 1
SNP2
Plaid 1
Northern Ireland 3
In terms of maximising representation at regional level, it's an almost perfect result for anti-EU parties, at the same time as wasting a huge number of votes for pro-EU parties. Either one of the pro-EU parties has to break out of the pack, or they all have to pull votes away from Labour.
He has the temperament to be a good president. He now needs some policies that are a little more relevant to daily life than abolishing the electoral college or transgender bathrooms.
Go Pete!
"A decade ago, one of those who knows the Tory party best told me that the Tories would only turn to Boris when they were 3-0 down with 15 minutes to go.
They now are three down and that means Boris is back in contention for the premiership."
The record of the current incumbent in the White House wouldn't even have been a launchpad to gubernatorial or Congressional office. But, if he can become universally known as "Pete", and run on the ticket of "I'm everything Tump is not...." then that could take him far.
Curiously, Vettel was over half a second slower than his pole time last year; Mercedes fractionally faster than their previous performance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWIUp19bBoA
Obama showed there is *a* path to victory for a fresh-faced semi-outsider, but that doesn't mean any or every fresh-faced semi-outsider can walk it.
Can we please stop this false equivalence?
I think the market might have already priced in a winning performance in the first debate. If he disappoints, or someone else notably excels, then there could be a major lengthening in his odds.
I wonder if Farage will join Salvini's new grouping.
Only Boris has the sort of shameless amoral vacuity required. The tories would be mad to go for anyone else.
I would also note that in the USA attitudes to homosexuality continue to grow more tolerant. I am not aware of any such trend in the Islamic world.
Euro floor single figures
My guess is that he’s going to find things start to become much more difficult once he declares.
The debates are going to be interesting, but there’s an awful lot of candidates qualifying for them. As we saw with Trump, being a dominant personality is of more importance than any particular accomplishment in debate, when you’re in a crowd.
I also remember back in 2016 by Tory Leavers that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party and country.
I imagine there'd be a lesser Conservative split, but with far more competent leadership.
Around the belief that the Tory government is crap.
Progressives 32
https://twitter.com/donnyc1975/status/1116783475598737408?s=21
What's you're witnessing is not the betrayal of Brexit, but the failure of Brexit.
There would have been no talk of another plebiscite allowing Osborne to focus his fire on the Corbyn and McDonnell plan to turn the UK into Venezuela.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17569879.snp-win-by-election-as-remain-parties-advance/?ref=mr&lp=2
I’ll let you how bad it is for the blue meanies.
In what way does the country owe allegiance to a referendum vote ?
Anyone with a sense of honour would not have to ask that question