politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as
Comments
-
Niece, and yes first experience being an uncle. I'm really excited!OldKingCole said:
Congratulations; is this your first experience of the role? Nephew or niece?MaxPB said:In other much happier news, I've become an uncle!
0 -
I was rather hoping CHUK would form an alliance with my own party, the Union of Moderates United for a New Nation.AlastairMeeks said:
Wait for the inevitable tie-up with the Lib Dems.Chris said:
Why, oh why, didn't they call it the CHANGE UK ALLIANCE?Nemtynakht said:
So apparently a failure to deliver Brexit has peeled off support to Brexit and UKIP and a failure to compromise has peeled off to CHUK. Seems like a microcosm of Brexit in Parliament to me.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile Conservative freefall continues:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=210 -
Well that didn't take long for Con to go under 30%!!!GIN1138 said:
Has Theresa May resigned yet?
You need Theresa. If she wasn't around the Conservatives would be well under 30%. Possibly under 20. It's not a Party anymore but a cult with some very weird ideas and members.0 -
Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.alex. said:
Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.
Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?
Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.0 -
No Deal does not end uncertainty.Sandpit said:
What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.SouthamObserver said:
Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.Sandpit said:
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.SouthamObserver said:
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.Sandpit said:
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.AlastairMeeks said:
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.Sandpit said:
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?Scott_P said:
Good luck with that.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.
0 -
Who is the 'er' in your username? Yourself?eristdoof said:
We must leave with no deal because John Bull decided to buy rather a lot of cream cheese.ydoethur said:
Also of course it buggers any plans made for a crashout now. The man who stockpiled ten tons of cream cheese in case of delays at the ports - now he's got to use that, and then stockpile again in October, because no way will anything have changed by then. So he's spent money twice over.Sandpit said:
Correct.alex. said:In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
From his point of view, a crashout and a sortout now would probably have been better.
The point is contingency plans can't just be reset in a cost free way. So for his business, crashout now is better than six more months of uncertainty AND a crashout.0 -
Listening to David Davis on Today, tells you all you need to know about these idiots. Speaking about Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer he says 'AKK, her full German name is beyond me' . Just pathetic and gratuitous nonsense.0
-
So who would do any better?Pulpstar said:
The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.rkrkrk said:
Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?MarqueeMark said:
The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.0 -
It does to some degree, the terms of doing business will be set for at least 3-4 years. Unfavourable, yes, but not uncertain.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal does not end uncertainty.Sandpit said:
What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.SouthamObserver said:
Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.Sandpit said:
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.SouthamObserver said:
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.Sandpit said:
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.AlastairMeeks said:
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.Sandpit said:
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?Scott_P said:
Good luck with that.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.0 -
Fake news. The Tories polled 29% with Populus in March 2015.GIN1138 said:Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
Well done Theresa...0 -
Mr. 17, in Davis' defence, her name is tricky to pronounce and even the Germans have a nickname for her to avoid having to say it (I forget the nickname, alas).0
-
Indeed. And all other parties are, like May, in the 'compromise means you do what I want' position.Casino_Royale said:There’s no prospect of a solution to the Tories problems.
Every wing of the party is convinced they’re not the ones causing the problem.
So nothing will change.0 -
It certainly is essential and very much fair comment. Who can forget Archer AU, who posted several posts a day extolling the virtues of diamond hard Brexit from his permanent residence in eastern Queensland?AlastairMeeks said:
It’s not ad hominem, it’s an essential point. You can take an Olympian view of any tribulations Britain might suffer from no deal because you won’t suffer them directly. Meanwhile there are news reports that in the event of no deal Brexit there may be shortages of some anti-seizure medicines. My partner takes and needs anti-seizure medicines. The consequences are rather more immediate for me than for you.Sandpit said:
Err, nope.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you completely ignore the point. You start with a nonsensical idea that Anna Soubry’s views do not have a large constituency. When this nonsense was pointed out, you move onto a rant about the merits of no deal Brexit, an approach for which you will personally bear almost none of the risks.Sandpit said:
LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.AlastairMeeks said:
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.Sandpit said:AlastairMeeks said:
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave writh no deal.
As @iSam said earlier on this thread: http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2283875/#Comment_2283875
Maybe it’s just because I am one, but I reckon people are more furious than places where people talk party politics think
Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
"whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.
Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.0 -
Equally, if I were a European leader keen on the idea of ever-closer union, I would really want to minimise the chances of the UK revoking.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.alex. said:
Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.
Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?
Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.0 -
Eh, it's not as much fun until they can talk.MaxPB said:
Niece, and yes first experience being an uncle. I'm really excited!OldKingCole said:
Congratulations; is this your first experience of the role? Nephew or niece?MaxPB said:In other much happier news, I've become an uncle!
0 -
Think of all the collateral damage being done by the Remainers. The SNP for one. What are they here for now? Scottish independence?
They've spent three years nodding at "A major change like this can't be done by a simple majority, a two-thirds majority is needed." "You have to come together with the losers and get a consensus". "Referendums are no way to make such important and complicated decisions."
Basically, they've spent three years poisoning the referendum well.
0 -
Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking._Anazina_ said:
So who would do any better?Pulpstar said:
The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.rkrkrk said:
Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?MarqueeMark said:
The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.0 -
Couple of lays to consider: An EU Ref in 2019 at 2.9. Corbyn next PM at 6.6. Buying money.0
-
We don't know that. A new leader, particularly one still facing Corbyn, could mean a fresh start and a honeymoon period.Roger said:You need Theresa. If she wasn't around the Conservatives would be well under 30%. Possibly under 20. It's not a Party anymore but a cult with some very weird ideas and members.
I've said before the next election will be one by whoever alienates the smallest number of their previous voters. If Corbyn is still there at the next election, or if his replacement is Pidcock or Long Bailey or Burgon, that could still be the Conservatives.
They would still however be massacred at the following election if Labour got their act together.
Equally, that is likely to be true of Labour if they scramble into power somehow.0 -
Letwin destroyed the Tories in the late 80s with the Poll Tax (and you can trace the 1997 meltdown directly back to the fall of Thatcher in 1990) and he's done it again with Brexit.
Yet still this moron is lauded by people in Con.0 -
Maybe that's why Macron is the one being difficult?Chris said:
Equally, if I were a European leader keen on the idea of ever-closer union, I would really want to minimise the chances of the UK revoking.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.alex. said:
Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.
Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?
Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.0 -
if the party had listened to her theyd not ne in this position. They were riding high while she had a chance of success.GIN1138 said:Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
Well done Theresa...0 -
Partially agree. But it creates a very big reason to get everyone around the table to hammer out agreements in days rather than months - in the face of the short-term disruption.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal does not end uncertainty.Sandpit said:
What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.SouthamObserver said:
Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.Sandpit said:
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.SouthamObserver said:
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.Sandpit said:
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.AlastairMeeks said:
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.
The current negotiations process, involving the various EU bodies, the UK executive and the UK legislature has clearly failed to produce a workable outcome, so another process is required.0 -
GE, then?kle4 said:
Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking._Anazina_ said:
So who would do any better?Pulpstar said:
The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.rkrkrk said:
Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?MarqueeMark said:
The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.0 -
Perhaps one where the UK Government negotiates and the Parliament ratifies, rather than the other way around?Sandpit said:
Partially agree. But it creates a very big reason to get everyone around the table to hammer out agreements in days rather than months - in the face of the short-term disruption.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal does not end uncertainty.Sandpit said:
What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.SouthamObserver said:
Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.Sandpit said:
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.SouthamObserver said:
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.Sandpit said:
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.AlastairMeeks said:
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.
The current negotiations process, involving the various EU bodies, the UK executive and the UK legislature has clearly failed to produce a workable outcome, so another process is required.
0 -
Really dont see why theres not time to replace May well in advance of the new deadline . Shifting her is not simple but time for the spineless in cabinet to act on the basis she has no plan to reach consensus in the time to come. If they finally go en masse very hard for her.0
-
What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.kle4 said:
Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.anothernick said:
The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.RobD said:
That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile Conservative freefall continues:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=21
0 -
One problem is, you have no idea how well people will do the job of PM until they're doing it. Theresa May, Arthur Balfour, Anthony Eden, Lord Rosebery, Herbert Asquith and Gordon Brown had all the necessary qualifications and experience to excel. Thatcher, Liverpool, Baldwin, and Blair did not. Yet who were the more successful PMs? Obviously the second group, certainly if we go by election results - the first group having a grand total of one electoral majority between them, the second boasting ten majorities of over 100.kle4 said:
Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking._Anazina_ said:
So who would do any better?Pulpstar said:
The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.rkrkrk said:
Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?MarqueeMark said:
The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
It's possible somebody could do better. But we won't know unless they're given a trial.0 -
If you look at Corbyn's behaviour on Europe - he was pitiful during the campaign. But since then he has pretty much called everything about as right as such a complex issue allows. Even now he is probably the leavers best hope of coming up with a way out of the EU that does the least damage to the country.rkrkrk said:
Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.ydoethur said:Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).
I'm too radicalised to care though. I am no longer prepared to settle for anything less than remain/rejoin.0 -
Presumably he just doesnt buy any cream cheese for a couple of months, and runs down his stock.ydoethur said:
Also of course it buggers any plans made for a crashout now. The man who stockpiled ten tons of cream cheese in case of delays at the ports - now he's got to use that, and then stockpile again in October, because no way will anything have changed by then. So he's spent money twice over.Sandpit said:
Correct.alex. said:In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
From his point of view, a crashout and a sortout now would probably have been better.
Lots a luvverly bargain cheesecakes.0 -
Not so sure about the last point but I agree with the first one. No one thanked her or her position when they had leads yet now they've forced her to extend when she didn't want to it's all her?alex. said:
What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.kle4 said:
Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.anothernick said:
The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.RobD said:
That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile Conservative freefall continues:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=210 -
In other news, there is a council byelection in Edinburgh today. I have no idea who will win, but the branding is interesting
https://twitter.com/MilesBriggsMSP/status/11162130981369856010 -
There's time. But what would it achieve? Whatever the latest ERG plan is won't pass parliament. So someone has to compromise with Labour. Which isn't exactly the ideal starting point for a Tory PM who wants to remain in power...kle4 said:Really dont see why theres not time to replace May well in advance of the new deadline . Shifting her is not simple but time for the spineless in cabinet to act on the basis she has no plan to reach consensus in the time to come. If they finally go en masse very hard for her.
0 -
I don't trust his words - he's too fluent a liar for that - although oddly I do believe him when he says he voted Remain. As for his deeds, all he's done is blown with the wind. If he's right, that's purely fortuitous.rkrkrk said:
Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.ydoethur said:Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).
0 -
He is a no dealer who must in all circumstances avoid responsibity for it happening.rkrkrk said:
Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.ydoethur said:Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).
0 -
Ugh. Probably will happen but I was thinking the Tories need to gamble first and try to get her out and see if anyone can do better. Maybe not but she's adding nothing now.Stereotomy said:
GE, then?kle4 said:
Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking._Anazina_ said:
So who would do any better?Pulpstar said:
The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.rkrkrk said:
Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?MarqueeMark said:
The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.0 -
Sandpit said:AlastairMeeks said:
IMO AS was indeed mainly elected for her party affiliation. But I don't think her views on Europe are especially unpopular in Broxtowe, which was narrowly split like the country with very little strong feeling (UKIP etc. have never done well there). Her problem is that quite a lot of people admire her for them, but not to the point of voting for her, while some of those who voted for her are annoyed.Sandpit said:
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
"whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.
Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.0 -
See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
0 -
It may have already been mentioned but this 'extension' to Halloween enables loads of comparisons to the classics!
Zombie Parliament with a government lead by Frankenstein's monster, Vampire EU sucking the blood from UK citizens, Mummified Farange rising from the dead. Even a few comparisons to the cult classic the Thing - monsters morphing out of normal looking people.
loads of fun to be had here.0 -
Just a genuine question: has anyone here done the BMG poll? How do they handle the new parties? Is there any introductory text explaining who Change UK and Brexit Party are, or are they just listed? In the former case it's a leading question, in the latter case it's a good result for them.0
-
You mean by the fact it didn't happen in 1992?!GIN1138 said:Letwin destroyed the Tories in the late 80s with the Poll Tax (***and you can trace the 1997 meltdown directly back to the fall of Thatcher in 1990***) and he's done it again with Brexit.
Yet still this moron is lauded by people in Con.
0 -
Indeed. The EU have massively overplayed their hand in the negotiations, and now try and blame the UK PM for her failure to carry the supplicantary deal through her own Parliament.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.alex. said:
Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.
Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?
Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.
TM has of course failed and needs to go, mainly for spending two years saying that no deal was better than a bad deal - while doing almost nothing to actually prepare for that eventuality.
The huge advantage of no-deal now would be that the negotiations would become more equal, with both sides keen to resolve ongoing disruption.
Anyway, work won't do itself. Laters.0 -
That Britain Elects poll gives the Tories most seats on 29%.AlastairMeeks said:The Conservatives remain favourites for most seats at the next election. I’ve always found that a stretch and it now looks baffling to me.
Of course, with swings and changes like this, all models break down, but FPTP is incredibly kind to the Big Two and incredibly unpleasant to anyone else.
It's sort of the point of FPTP, really.0 -
I think the only thing to do is get well lit on Hallowe'en so that we can face the new world with spirit.Blue_rog said:It may have already been mentioned but this 'extension' to Halloween enables loads of comparisons to the classics!
Zombie Parliament with a government lead by Frankenstein's monster, Vampire EU sucking the blood from UK citizens, Mummified Farange rising from the dead. Even a few comparisons to the cult classic the Thing - monsters morphing out of normal looking people.
loads of fun to be had here.0 -
The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.CD13 said:See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.0 -
That's fair comment. Labour would likely have won the seat though, if the pro-Brexit residents of Broxtowe had voted for a different party or stayed at home.NickPalmer said:
IMO AS was indeed mainly elected for her party affiliation. But I don't think her views on Europe are especially unpopular in Broxtowe, which was narrowly split like the country with very little strong feeling (UKIP etc. have never done well there). Her problem is that quite a lot of people admire her for them, but not to the point of voting for her, while some of those who voted for her are annoyed.Sandpit said:
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
"whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.
Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.0 -
TheValiant said:
Yes. I'd better break out the box tomorrow and circulate it back into the regular food supplies. (I'm not kidding - some of the end dates are August, so no good there)rottenborough said:
And I will need to check the 'use by' dates on a whole stack of stockpiled food.dixiedean said:FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .
We'll be eating Fray Bentos pies for a week now.
Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......eek said:
I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few monthsedmundintokyo said:
I do wonder if Tory MPs aren't eventually going to support a binding referendum. Their base won't like it but it's better than slowly bleeding to death, and once you're into extensions with no hint of a resolution it gets easier for them to justify it as a way to make brexit happen, rather than a way of holding it up.TheValiant said:So, assuming the PM accepts the proposals, where does that leave us?
Well, I can't see anything other than a summer of nothing. Labour will break off talks immediately as the deadline is now more than six months away. No changes will be made to the withdrawal agreement, so the 25 or so hardcore nutter ERG members won't change their tune. Neither will the 5-10 hardcore Grieve nutters who now see victory ahead. So the WA is still dead as a Dodo.
If I was guessing, I'd bet everyone in Parliament breathes a huge sigh of relief, and then... oh my, is that the time... nearly Easter. Off for a long jolly, followed by May Day bank holiday, half term, Whit and then its the summer recess. Back in September for Conferences were we can shout at how crap the other lot(s) are, before its October and we end up back were we started.
A mad panic to try and agree something at the last minute, with a possible further can kick.
I delay for delay's sake (and this is what this is) is pointless.
The only way out is possibly a 'Electoral event' (either a GE, or 2nd Referendum) as our Parliament has clearly failed to do what it is both paid and elected to do.
This may not help matters, we could end up with another hung Parliament, or a very close 51:49 result (on whatever question, and whatever way) but I think having a vote on something is now the only way forward.
It's clear our elected representatives have failed us. We either need to make their decision for them, or get a new representative that won't fail.0 -
The bill passed by one vote!ydoethur said:
I don't trust his words - he's too fluent a liar for that - although oddly I do believe him when he says he voted Remain. As for his deeds, all he's done is blown with the wind. If he's right, that's purely fortuitous.rkrkrk said:
Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.ydoethur said:Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).
And I don't doubt that if he had personally proposed the bill it would have failed, at least one Tory MP would have rejected that. So he could have ensured No Deal without the blame.0 -
With people scrabbling around all the while to make any deal they can and hence not at all certain.MaxPB said:
It does to some degree, the terms of doing business will be set for at least 3-4 years. Unfavourable, yes, but not uncertain.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal does not end uncertainty.Sandpit said:
What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.SouthamObserver said:
Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.Sandpit said:
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.SouthamObserver said:
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.Sandpit said:
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.AlastairMeeks said:
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.Sandpit said:
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?Scott_P said:
Good luck with that.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.0 -
I think it's misleading giving changes between polls that exclude Change and Brexit and those that include them.NickPalmer said:Just a genuine question: has anyone here done the BMG poll? How do they handle the new parties? Is there any introductory text explaining who Change UK and Brexit Party are, or are they just listed? In the former case it's a leading question, in the latter case it's a good result for them.
Without the two, the Conservatives are on 35% (-4%) and Labour on 34% (unchanged).
You could add Change to the Lib Dem score, and Brexit to the UKIP score, but I don't think their votes necessarily transfer between each other.0 -
At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?
I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.
In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?0 -
Yes, but almost all of Labour voted for it. All his career, Corbyn has done whatever he thinks will make him popular with his target constituency. Right now, that's the Labour backbenchers and working class labour voters. So he has to not rule out a second referendum to appease the former, and somehow keep Brexit on track to appease the latter. I agree, insofar as he has developed a position to do both, he's done it well. But don't confuse naked opportunism for strategy.rkrkrk said:
The bill passed by one vote!ydoethur said:
I don't trust his words - he's too fluent a liar for that - although oddly I do believe him when he says he voted Remain. As for his deeds, all he's done is blown with the wind. If he's right, that's purely fortuitous.rkrkrk said:
Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.ydoethur said:Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).
And I don't doubt that if he had personally proposed the bill it would have failed, at least one Tory MP would have rejected that. So he could have ensured No Deal without the blame.
I have work to do. Have a good morning.0 -
What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.
There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.
But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.0 -
Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.0
-
What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader?rottenborough said:What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.
There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.
But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.
0 -
I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.Harris_Tweed said:At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?
I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.
In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?0 -
A lot of polls in 2013/14 had the Conservatives on under 30%, for much the same reason as now - UKIP were polling double figures (as do UKIP and Brexit combined).TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news. The Tories polled 29% with Populus in March 2015.GIN1138 said:Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
Well done Theresa...
Labour, however, were polling a good deal better at that point.0 -
Whilst polling could be described as somewhat volatile right now, how depressing that the friggin Tommy Robinson triple ripple dogshit party could score 18%. The Tories are doing their best to create a dystopia. I'm actually quite hopeful this will break them and the idiotic corbynites and we get realignment.0
-
She sold it really badly. Everything about the deal was negative which put the backs up of Remainers. It was sold as the hardest of hard Brexits to appeal to her lunatic fringe which it wasn't but it gave the middle ground a reason to fight it.alex. said:
What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.kle4 said:
Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.anothernick said:
The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.RobD said:
That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile Conservative freefall continues:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=210 -
Indeed.Sean_F said:
A lot of polls in 2013/14 had the Conservatives on under 30%, for much the same reason as now - UKIP were polling double figures (as do UKIP and Brexit combined).TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news. The Tories polled 29% with Populus in March 2015.GIN1138 said:Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
Well done Theresa...
Labour, however, were polling a good deal better at that point.
Just a shame GIN was peddling fake polling news.0 -
Have you really been stockpiling food?rottenborough said:Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.
0 -
I'm not keen on a General Election.
Although the Tories deserve some kicking, I can't decide who to vote for. There's no honest party. The LDs are honest but arrogant. We know better than the people. UKIP/Brexit keep transmogrifying - who knows what they'll be tomorrow.
The Greens are barmy.
Labour is two parties still; my local MP slavishly follows orders to block Brexit. Caroline Flint would be a nice alternative, or Frank Field if he's not in his dotage yet, but they're standing elsewhere. The SNP are busily kicking themselves in the b*llocks, even if I were Scottish.
I'll just have to accept they're all a bunch of lying cnuts, but no one takes a spoilt ballot seriously.
Dear Marge (I'm somewhat long in the tooth), what should I do?
0 -
yep. lots. and bottled water.Sean_F said:
Have you really been stockpiling food?rottenborough said:Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.
0 -
Mrs Eek has - not much but a week or so more than we would usually have.Sean_F said:
Have you really been stockpiling food?rottenborough said:Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.
0 -
I ignore sell by and use by dates. I still have dried pasta from my Mamma’s larder and she died some time ago.GIN1138 said:
What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader?rottenborough said:What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.
There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.
But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.0 -
I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.Blue_rog said:
I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.Harris_Tweed said:At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?
I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.
In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?
I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.0 -
Why? Insofar as there could be any interruption to supplies, it would be to seasonal vegetables and fruit, which are not things you can stockpile.rottenborough said:
yep. lots. and bottled water.Sean_F said:
Have you really been stockpiling food?rottenborough said:Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.
0 -
What do we want? Brexit!isam said:
The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.CD13 said:See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
What type of Brexit do we want? Er.0 -
Good Brie and Evian. Survival rations.rottenborough said:
yep. lots. and bottled water.Sean_F said:
Have you really been stockpiling food?rottenborough said:Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.
0 -
Yeh, I agree. Certainly stuff like pasta should be ok for ages. I have a lot of tins, I reckon most of that will be ok for years.Cyclefree said:
I ignore sell by and use by dates. I still have dried pasta from my Mamma’s larder and she died some time ago.GIN1138 said:
What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader?rottenborough said:What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.
There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.
But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.
We drink a lot of soya milk, so plenty of that in and that has a shorter life, maybe six months. I will need to check.0 -
Greens to keep their three or four seats?Sean_F said:
I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.Blue_rog said:
I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.Harris_Tweed said:At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?
I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.
In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?
I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.0 -
It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’AlastairMeeks said:
What do we want? Brexit!isam said:
The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.CD13 said:See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
What type of Brexit do we want? Er.0 -
Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.0
-
The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.dyedwoolie said:Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.
0 -
The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/Cyclefree said:
Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......eek said:
I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.0 -
Come off it, Sam. Surely you’d agree that if they took your suggestion of starting with BINO, other Brexiteers would call it a stitch up. The problem is that there is nothing deliverable that has a consensus behind it.isam said:
It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’AlastairMeeks said:
What do we want? Brexit!isam said:
The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.CD13 said:See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
What type of Brexit do we want? Er.0 -
Change might eat into their support. There's a real risk that absent a combined slate, the Lib Dems, Greens, and Change could be polling 6-8% each per region, and get nothing due to vote-shredding.rottenborough said:
Greens to keep their three or four seats?Sean_F said:
I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.Blue_rog said:
I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.Harris_Tweed said:At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?
I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.
In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?
I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.0 -
Rotten
You
Rotten, you are kidding me? Tell me you didn’t really get drawn in by the stockpiling hyperbole?rottenborough said:
Yeh, I agree. Certainly stuff like pasta should be ok for ages. I have a lot of tins, I reckon most of that will be ok for years.Cyclefree said:
I ignore sell by and use by dates. I still have dried pasta from my Mamma’s larder and she died some time ago.GIN1138 said:
What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader?rottenborough said:What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.
There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.
But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.
We drink a lot of soya milk, so plenty of that in and that has a shorter life, maybe six months. I will need to check.
For the hard of hearing: NO DEAL AIN’T HAPPENING0 -
Yep the none Labour remain vote needs a clear single slate to vote for.Sean_F said:
Change might eat into their support. There's a real risk that absent a combined slate, the Lib Dems, Greens, and Change could be polling 6-8% each per region, and get nothing due to vote-shredding.rottenborough said:
Greens to keep their three or four seats?Sean_F said:
I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.Blue_rog said:
I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.Harris_Tweed said:At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?
I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.
In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?
I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.0 -
Quite. And its not like there aren't alternativesSean_F said:
The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.dyedwoolie said:Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.
There's getting extra in in case of short term difficulty and there's prepping for apocalypse. Brexit ain't the latter0 -
I think I've seen some local candidates across the northern part of England.Sean_F said:
I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.Blue_rog said:
I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.Harris_Tweed said:At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?
I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.
In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?
I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.0 -
It would be better to push it back to February and hope for a cold winter.eek said:
The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/Cyclefree said:
Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......eek said:
I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.0 -
The general public would not have been irate if Mays Deal had been agreed by cabinet and signed off. The whole palava is down to Grieve getting people he knew would try and overturn the people’s vote to have the final say.williamglenn said:
Come off it, Sam. Surely you’d agree that if they took your suggestion of starting with BINO, other Brexiteers would call it a stitch up. The problem is that there is nothing deliverable that has a consensus behind it.isam said:
It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’AlastairMeeks said:
What do we want? Brexit!isam said:
The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.CD13 said:See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
What type of Brexit do we want? Er.
The whole point was this was never meant to be about politicians0 -
"We hold all the cards" has mutated!Sandpit said:The huge advantage of no-deal now would be that the negotiations would become more equal, with both sides keen to resolve ongoing disruption.
0 -
Not funny.Recidivist said:
It would be better to push it back to February and hope for a cold winter.eek said:
The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/Cyclefree said:
Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......eek said:
I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.0 -
As they appear to be set on an Easter break, such precipitate behaviour would seem out of character...eek said:
The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/Cyclefree said:
Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......eek said:
I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.0 -
The worst possible outcome for the UK. How could our politicians choose anything else? Its catnip to them. More months of uncertainty, not knowing what the rules are going to be, whether we are actually going to leave or not, it is just madness.
Who is going to invest in the UK in these 6 months? Who is going to invest in export capacity focused on the EU? Are we really going to put up with May's non negotiating negotiation for that long? Honestly, revoke would have been better than this.0 -
I think your rosé tinted glasses and affecting your judgement. If it were sold as the hardest of hard brexits then the would have supported it. Unfortunately May is apologetic in a British way and failed to sell it as the compromise it was. She highlighted her red lines rather than explaining why it was a compromise.Roger said:
She sold it really badly. Everything about the deal was negative which put the backs up of Remainers. It was sold as the hardest of hard Brexits to appeal to her lunatic fringe which it wasn't but it gave the middle ground a reason to fight it.alex. said:
What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.kle4 said:
Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.anothernick said:
The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.RobD said:
That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile Conservative freefall continues:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=21
The real difficulty for May is that she has to get 300+ votes from around 450 who might vote for the deal - the rest either openly want to revoke, or remain via a further referendum ( I’ve still not met anyone who voted Leave who wants a second referendum). So in effect she is trying to get a super majority of 2/3rds for a compromise deal which no one likes but maybe most could live with. That is difficult for anyone no matter how competent.0 -
In normal times. But these aren’t normal times so I’m sure the process could be expedited.eek said:
The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/Cyclefree said:
Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......eek said:
I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.0 -
Sam did you answer (apologies you may have) the question as to whether from here, from this point on, would you prefer to or be happy to have a "no deal"?isam said:
The general public would not have been irate if Mays Deal had been agreed by cabinet and signed off. The whole palava is down to Grieve getting people he knew would try and overturn the people’s vote to have the final say.williamglenn said:
Come off it, Sam. Surely you’d agree that if they took your suggestion of starting with BINO, other Brexiteers would call it a stitch up. The problem is that there is nothing deliverable that has a consensus behind it.isam said:
It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’AlastairMeeks said:
What do we want? Brexit!isam said:
The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.CD13 said:See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
What type of Brexit do we want? Er.
The whole point was this was never meant to be about politicians0 -
Some people think Mad Max is a documentary.dyedwoolie said:
Quite. And its not like there aren't alternativesSean_F said:
The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.dyedwoolie said:Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.
There's getting extra in in case of short term difficulty and there's prepping for apocalypse. Brexit ain't the latter0 -
Well that didn't take long for Con to go under 30%!!!GIN1138 said:
Has Theresa May resigned yet?
The 'change' figures are misleading here in that the earlier poll did NOT include TIG.0 -
I actually think they need a break. Go back to the constituencies and find out what people think outside the Bubble.Nigelb said:
As they appear to be set on an Easter break, such precipitate behaviour would seem out of character...eek said:
The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/Cyclefree said:
Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......eek said:
I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.
0 -
Might I suggest you have a look at the Candidates rather than the Parties and decide accordingly. It's what I've tended to do more recently.CD13 said:I'm not keen on a General Election.
Although the Tories deserve some kicking, I can't decide who to vote for. There's no honest party. The LDs are honest but arrogant. We know better than the people. UKIP/Brexit keep transmogrifying - who knows what they'll be tomorrow.
The Greens are barmy.
Labour is two parties still; my local MP slavishly follows orders to block Brexit. Caroline Flint would be a nice alternative, or Frank Field if he's not in his dotage yet, but they're standing elsewhere. The SNP are busily kicking themselves in the b*llocks, even if I were Scottish.
I'll just have to accept they're all a bunch of lying cnuts, but no one takes a spoilt ballot seriously.
Dear Marge (I'm somewhat long in the tooth), what should I do?0 -
MPs:....but we reserve the right to fuck about if they AGAIN have the temerity to come back with an answer we don't like.CD13 said:See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.
MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
What has become clear since June 2016 is that MPs REALLY don't like democracy.0 -
I don’t think I’ve met e leaver who is stock piling, but have heard several comments from staunch remainers about stockpiling. As my other half is already a hoarder we have full cupboards and freezers anyway, but it would be interesting to see who is right. Shelagh Fogarty on LBC keeps on banging on about lettuce being from the EU and every time she says it I think we’ll I guess I won’t have lettuce for a few weeks - it doesn’t send me into a panic.Sean_F said:
Some people think Mad Max is a documentary.dyedwoolie said:
Quite. And its not like there aren't alternativesSean_F said:
The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.dyedwoolie said:Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.
There's getting extra in in case of short term difficulty and there's prepping for apocalypse. Brexit ain't the latter0
