politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boost for beleaguered TMay as the Tories hold second place in

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

Who the hell are the 7,000+ people who voted Conservative in Newport West?

Seriously you've got to be out of your mid to vioe Tory at this point?

The 7,000 plus Tory voters are fanatics about sentence construction and spelling ....

Don't start on me your Lordship I was up until nearly 2am waiting for a Tory evisceration that didn't happen!

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.

For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.

But claiming
In the EU=not a free country.
Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country
is illogical

I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.

No we do not have more in common with Europeans. We have more in common historically, culturally, linguistically and even in our Common Law legal system with English-speaking Commonwealth nations like Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do Germany, Hungary or Romania.

So we should get out of this unnatural union with Europeans with 'foreign' legal systems like Scotland's?

Yes. Did you miss the debate yesterday?

It's pretty hard to sustain the argument that "we" have more in common with Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do with other Europeans if you're including Scotland in the other category.

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.

Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?

The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum

Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.

You seem to have overlooked that under the flextension there isn't an easy route to no deal.

The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.

If there isn't a referendum the extension ends on 12 April 2020.

I suggested we break the impasse by replacing May [and Fox] and fixing May's mistakes and prep properly for No Deal. Build border posts on the Irish border if we have to, while holding out an olive branch that we will ratify the deal if they drop the backstop.

If they drop the backstop we get a good deal and exit. If they don't we make sure we're prepared to exit on 12 April 2020. Public attitude to No Deal is higher than for revocation or extension and momentum is increasing support for No Deal as it happens. If we've prepared properly for it there's no reason we can't do it if need be - but if we prepare properly for it, there's every chance the EU will blink and give us a good deal. Win/win either way.

Not sure there is support for No Deal if you actually look at the data,

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1113764788486721536?s=19

So 49% want Brexit of some form, only 37% to Remain in the EU even if only 26% want No Deal

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

The 2.4% swing from Labour to the Tories last night would see the Tories gain 24 Labour seats nationwide, enough for a small Tory majority.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

It seems more voters like May's attempts to produce a compromise Brexit Deal than hard Brexiteers first thought

Would it be heresy to suggest that Brexit made bugger all difference in Newport? And that issues like Labour in Wales being crap on the NHS and the problems of traffic on the M4 were just as important?

Perhaps but the Tory vote held up despite the Brexit issues

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

The preliminary investigation into the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 last month revealed Thursday that pilots began fighting the Boeing 737 MAX’s new automatic flight-control system barely a minute after leaving the ground, after a sensor failed shortly after takeoff....

The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.

In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/preliminary-crash-report-reveals-detail-of-ethiopian-pilots-fight-against-the-737-max-flight-controls/

Surprised Boeing's share price hasn't taken more of a pasting tbh.

Regardless of what happens they will remain in a duopoly and recover.

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.

For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.

But claiming
In the EU=not a free country.
Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country
is illogical

I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.

No we do not have more in common with Europeans. We have more in common historically, culturally, linguistically and even in our Common Law legal system with English-speaking Commonwealth nations like Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do Germany, Hungary or Romania.

So we should get out of this unnatural union with Europeans with 'foreign' legal systems like Scotland's?

Yes. Did you miss the debate yesterday?

It's pretty hard to sustain the argument that "we" have more in common with Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do with other Europeans if you're including Scotland in the other category.

I think we have more in common with Scotland than the others but I think we should still dissolve the UK anyway despite that.

Incidentally, how much time have you spent in Canada?

GIN1138 said:

Who the hell are the 7,000+ people who voted Conservative in Newport West?

Seriously you've got to be out of your mind to vote Tory at this point?

The result certainly suggests it's not as toxic as the press and commentariat would have it. The council by election in Norfolk also had them holding up over 50%, ok only a local but there is no evidence yet of a vote collapse. Certainly it's not like 92 to 97 when they were smashed in every by election.
Its activists not voters that are deserting imo but that will weigh in a general

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1113966928069124098?s=20

That will strengthen May's hand. The ERG doomongers (doommongers?) have been thwarted.

Yes, despite UKIP gaining 6% on 2017 the Tories held second place comfortably and the Labour vote was also down

I think based on this result alone Rod Crosby's model would be forecasting a pretty big Conservative majority at the next election?

OllyT said:

isam said:

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.

They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election

The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.

Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.

It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.

It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.

UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.

I see, wrong sort of UKIP!

What stopped Farage standing the by election on a clear Leave Means Leave platform? He could have actually done something and put his money where his mouth was instead of just spouting hot air. What was he afraid of?

With nothing still settled on Brexit it would seem to have been the ideal opportunity for him to influence the debate and demonstrate that leavers are all as irate as he claims they are.

You'd have to ask him, but I would disagree that Newport West was "the ideal opportunity"

Plaid saved their deposit by 9 votes !

isam said:

OllyT said:

isam said:

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.

They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election

The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.

Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.

It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.

It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.

UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.

I see, wrong sort of UKIP!

What stopped Farage standing the by election on a clear Leave Means Leave platform? He could have actually done something and put his money where his mouth was instead of just spouting hot air. What was he afraid of?

With nothing still settled on Brexit it would seem to have been the ideal opportunity for him to influence the debate and demonstrate that leavers are all as irate as he claims they are.

You'd have to ask him, but I would disagree that Newport West was "the ideal opportunity"

Hes gearing up for euros, his favourite election

IanB2 said:

Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.

Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?

The EU’s proposal is because they think they will get a better deal from Parliament than from May

Peterborough looks VERY interesting after this result

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

Who the hell are the 7,000+ people who voted Conservative in Newport West?

Seriously you've got to be out of your mid to vioe Tory at this point?

The 7,000 plus Tory voters are fanatics about sentence construction and spelling ....

Don't start on me your Lordship I was up until nearly 2am waiting for a Tory evisceration that didn't happen!

It's the hope that kill you ....

A factor to take into account is that whilst BREXIT continues to suck the life out of the chattering classes, media and dare I say the denizens of PB, it is not the lifeblood of the overwhelming majority of Mr & Mrs Joe Voter who for the most part go about their daily lives completely unencumbered by, albeit fed up with BREXIT.

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1113966928069124098?s=20

That will strengthen May's hand. The ERG doomongers (doommongers?) have been thwarted.

Yes, despite UKIP gaining 6% on 2017 the Tories held second place comfortably and the Labour vote was also down

I think based on this result alone Rod Crosby's model would be forecasting a pretty big Conservative majority at the next election?

Depends on who the leader is

"Flextension" has possibilities. It could develop into "hexaflextension" for example, as way of describing the contortions and many-sidedness of May-Corbyn, Grieve-Cooper, Spelman-Dromey etc etc.

Pulpstar said:

Plaid saved their deposit by 9 votes !

You've got plaid, ld and that renew lot grubbing about the deposit mark in a low turnout and you have this week talking about Corbyn needing to consider second referendum carefully based on it. Bizarre. Especially as their combined rise equaled that for the no deal loon party. Inconclusive at best

OllyT said:

isam said:

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.

They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election

The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.

Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.

It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.

It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.

UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.

I see, wrong sort of UKIP!

What stopped Farage standing the by election on a clear Leave Means Leave platform? He could have actually done something and put his money where his mouth was instead of just spouting hot air. What was he afraid of?

With nothing still settled on Brexit it would seem to have been the ideal opportunity for him to influence the debate and demonstrate that leavers are all as irate as he claims they are. Perhaps he knows that they aren't, his "march" should have given him a clue!

Farage is just a poseur. Dangerous, but still, fundamentally, a poseur.

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

The preliminary investigation into the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 last month revealed Thursday that pilots began fighting the Boeing 737 MAX’s new automatic flight-control system barely a minute after leaving the ground, after a sensor failed shortly after takeoff....

The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.

In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/preliminary-crash-report-reveals-detail-of-ethiopian-pilots-fight-against-the-737-max-flight-controls/

Surprised Boeing's share price hasn't taken more of a pasting tbh.

Regardless of what happens they will remain in a duopoly and recover.

Does the US prosecute corporate manslaughter? Someone needs to be accountable

Mr. Kamski, I was referring to your post extolling the idea of the EU setting all our regulations.

Mr. Foremain, any chance you could point me to the post where I suggested British products should have no safety standards?

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

The preliminary investigation into the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 last month revealed Thursday that pilots began fighting the Boeing 737 MAX’s new automatic flight-control system barely a minute after leaving the ground, after a sensor failed shortly after takeoff....

The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.

In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/preliminary-crash-report-reveals-detail-of-ethiopian-pilots-fight-against-the-737-max-flight-controls/

Surprised Boeing's share price hasn't taken more of a pasting tbh.

Boeing sold $400m worth of Block III Super Hornets the USN just yesterday.

Pulpstar said:

Peterborough looks VERY interesting after this result

All the various parties contending to be the true Leave vote are going to knock each other out. Easy Labour hold.

If she's asking for June 30th won't the answer be the same as the last time she asked for that date?

Nigel_Foremain said:

OllyT said:

isam said:

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.

They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election

The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.

Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.

It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.

It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.

UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.

I see, wrong sort of UKIP!

What stopped Farage standing the by election on a clear Leave Means Leave platform? He could have actually done something and put his money where his mouth was instead of just spouting hot air. What was he afraid of?

With nothing still settled on Brexit it would seem to have been the ideal opportunity for him to influence the debate and demonstrate that leavers are all as irate as he claims they are. Perhaps he knows that they aren't, his "march" should have given him a clue!

Farage is just a poseur. Dangerous, but still, fundamentally, a poseur.

He's been banging on about Leaving for 20 years though. If he's a poseur he's a very determined one.

kamski said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.

Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...

No we are not.

Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?

Yes international rules and obligations.

In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.

Can you rephrase this, I don't understand what you mean

WTO rules are international affecting everyone. For instance the concept of MFN.

EU/Customs Union rules are national affecting the nations it applies to.

Under the WTO we would be a free nation setting our own national laws within the established international order.
In the EU/CU some of our national rules will be set by the EU. In the latter case without us even getting a say.

WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.

For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.

But claiming
In the EU=not a free country.
Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country
is illogical

I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.

The differences are (a) the EU’s remit is wider and can be expanded without our veto and (b) we can be consistently outvoted in the EU

isam said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1113780963291598849?s=21

The second point does not invalidate the first.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Isam, aye, my mother often watches other stuff now rather than the news.

I only watch the Brexit section of the news.

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

Peterborough looks VERY interesting after this result

All the various parties contending to be the true Leave vote are going to knock each other out. Easy Labour hold.

And what about the parties contending to be the true Remain vote?

Last night showed that in potentially more favourable territory for such parties there's not much appetite for them.

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/UofGVC/status/1114078093071790080

If the Cooper Bill has forced the Government to request a longer extension already it is serving its purpose.

Looks like the EU are going to give a longer extension anyway with the option for the UK to leave as soon as a deal is agreed. But I wouldn't hold your breath on that one. A long extension will just mean a continuation of squabbling at Westminster and no agreement on anything.

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1113854883638251521?s=19

For a supposedly smart bloke, Tomkins shows worrying signs of being dumb. Didn't he at some Holyrood finance committee ask why companies should pay tax when they didn't have a vote?

That is a philosophically coherent position (tax the owners not the entity). But limited real world practicality.

RochdalePioneers said:

If she's asking for June 30th won't the answer be the same as the last time she asked for that date?

Yes.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” Albert Einstein

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.

For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.

But claiming
In the EU=not a free country.
Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country
is illogical

I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.

No we do not have more in common with Europeans. We have more in common historically, culturally, linguistically and even in our Common Law legal system with English-speaking Commonwealth nations like Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do Germany, Hungary or Romania.

So we should get out of this unnatural union with Europeans with 'foreign' legal systems like Scotland's?

Yes. Did you miss the debate yesterday?

It's pretty hard to sustain the argument that "we" have more in common with Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do with other Europeans if you're including Scotland in the other category.

I think we have more in common with Scotland than the others but I think we should still dissolve the UK anyway despite that.

Incidentally, how much time have you spent in Canada?

More time than I've spent in any individual EU nation, a few weeks at a time every couple of years. My in-laws live there. Why?

I just wondered as I know you grew up in Australia but hadn't seen you mention anything about Canada.

If you think meeting your girlfriend's parents the first time is stressful, imagine having to fly thousands of miles to meet them for the first time then stay in their home for weeks...

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

ExiledInScotland said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

The preliminary investigation into the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 last month revealed Thursday that pilots began fighting the Boeing 737 MAX’s new automatic flight-control system barely a minute after leaving the ground, after a sensor failed shortly after takeoff....

The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.

In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/preliminary-crash-report-reveals-detail-of-ethiopian-pilots-fight-against-the-737-max-flight-controls/

Surprised Boeing's share price hasn't taken more of a pasting tbh.

Regardless of what happens they will remain in a duopoly and recover.

Does the US prosecute corporate manslaughter? Someone needs to be accountable

Which is worse VW's fiddling of emmissions tests or Boeing's alleged short-cutting of certification?

Boeing's led to direct deaths so probably the latter but the certification process was decided by the FAA not them. VW committed outright fraud which I don't think Boeing have actually been accused of.

Yes, sounds reasonable. One thing it reinforces for me is that large corporates need close scrutiny.

Benpointer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

If she's asking for June 30th won't the answer be the same as the last time she asked for that date?

Yes.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” Albert Einstein

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet" Abraham Lincoln

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

Peterborough looks VERY interesting after this result

All the various parties contending to be the true Leave vote are going to knock each other out. Easy Labour hold.

Bold. If farages mob stand then perhaps but UKIP are useless. Plus there will be some punishment vote against labour for standing a crook last time. Tories won in 2005 when behind nationally and got 35% in the annus horribilis 97. Any swing to cons sees them take the seat

Plus, east Midlands. Trending away from labour innit

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1113780963291598849?s=21

The second point does not invalidate the first.

I guess if Nick Griffin told people to stop judging others on the colour of their skin it would be hard to say his words were not correct.

Campbell's reply wasn't exactly in complete agreement...

There is a difference in kind between calling someone "a piece of shit" and accusing them of treason.

Hoping someone gets run over by a bus is worse than both in my opinion.

May of course can't ask for later than June 30 as shes said she'll quit first

Nigel_Foremain said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

Peterborough looks VERY interesting after this result

All the various parties contending to be the true Leave vote are going to knock each other out. Easy Labour hold.

Hmm, I reckon the Tories will win the seat whilst going backwards. Anyway I'll shut up about it now till hopefully some odds come out

They should, but as Alastair suggests it depends on whether leave voters divide between The Popular Front of Brexit, The People's Front and the Brexit People's Front. Not sure how I would vote if I lived there. Is the Tory candidate a Brexit hardliner or does she/he have a brain?

Paul Bristow, hardcore Brexiteer I think.

The continued speculation about changing the "Brexit date" by a few weeks and the threat of no deal in one week is good for no European economy and frankly an absurd way to do politics. The 2 year notice that comes with Article 50 was sensible, but we are where we are now, and another approach is needed.

A formal brexit date should now be withdrawn, but the negotiations votes etc carry on. Once the EU and the UK have agreed the withdrawal plan, then a two month notice is given with a definite date and known leaving conditions. This would allow comanpies and citizens to make realistic plans without having to hav 3 short term contingency plans.

Anyone who objects, saying that then Brexit will never happen, i reply "if the political will for Brexit is there then it will happen and Brexit is so big, we need to get it right, not rushed through in a few days just to meet a deadline"

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1113780963291598849?s=21

The second point does not invalidate the first.

I guess if Nick Griffin told people to stop judging others on the colour of their skin it would be hard to say his words were not correct.

Campbell's reply wasn't exactly in complete agreement...

There is a difference in kind between calling someone "a piece of shit" and accusing them of treason.

I think a truer comparison is the practise of labelling those we don't agree with 'extremists'. This type of vilification is equally dangerous to our society.

TGOHF said:

May asking for June 30th is madness. Queuing up to be humiliated in the EU elections.

Don't stand candidates - it's pointless.

Shes hoping to get the Corbyn compromise though and cancel them. If labour are on board they are unlikely to whip for a referendum as they would presumably have to campaign approve and leave. Even if they whip a referendum isn't passing imo

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

ExiledInScotland said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

The preliminary investigation into the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 last month revealed Thursday that pilots began fighting the Boeing 737 MAX’s new automatic flight-control system barely a minute after leaving the ground, after a sensor failed shortly after takeoff....

The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.

In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/preliminary-crash-report-reveals-detail-of-ethiopian-pilots-fight-against-the-737-max-flight-controls/

Surprised Boeing's share price hasn't taken more of a pasting tbh.

Regardless of what happens they will remain in a duopoly and recover.

Does the US prosecute corporate manslaughter? Someone needs to be accountable

Which is worse VW's fiddling of emmissions tests or Boeing's alleged short-cutting of certification?

Boeing's led to direct deaths so probably the latter but the certification process was decided by the FAA not them. VW committed outright fraud which I don't think Boeing have actually been accused of.

Higher emissions = higher deaths too. If they'd told the truth about the real level of emissions, it might have caused Governments to eradicate diesel engines sooner.

That said, the paper trail up through Boeing senior management is going to be interesting....

Luckyguy1983 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1113780963291598849?s=21

The second point does not invalidate the first.

I guess if Nick Griffin told people to stop judging others on the colour of their skin it would be hard to say his words were not correct.

Campbell's reply wasn't exactly in complete agreement...

There is a difference in kind between calling someone "a piece of shit" and accusing them of treason.

I think a truer comparison is the practise of labelling those we don't agree with 'extremists'. This type of vilification is equally dangerous to our society.

Would you describe, say, Tommy Robinson as an extremist, or just someone we (whoever 'we' is) should respectfully disagree with.

eristdoof said:

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

May asking for June 30th is madness. Queuing up to be humiliated in the EU elections.

Don't stand candidates - it's pointless.

As it is D'Hondt, voting someone else other than the Tories doesn't help Labour either.

Voting Labour helps Labour or are you claiming that voting Labour is not "voting someone else other than the Tories"

Sorry I meant that if you don't want Labour to "win" then in FPTP normally you need to vote Conservative, but in D'Hondt there is no post so you can vote for someone else you want to see represent you in the Euro Parliament without the vote in effect boosting Labour.

AlastairMeeks said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1113780963291598849?s=21

The second point does not invalidate the first.

I guess if Nick Griffin told people to stop judging others on the colour of their skin it would be hard to say his words were not correct.

Campbell's reply wasn't exactly in complete agreement...

There is a difference in kind between calling someone "a piece of shit" and accusing them of treason.

I think a truer comparison is the practise of labelling those we don't agree with 'extremists'. This type of vilification is equally dangerous to our society.

Accusations of treason are extreme. Great claims require great evidence. The evidence that the nutjobs seem to think is sufficient is having a different view of the best way forward for the country.

Oddly, these selfsame nutjobs often seem entirely happy at the prospect of working with foreign powers to bring about their own aims.

Yes they're extreme but not as extreme as wishing someone's death upon them as Campbell did with the 'run over by a bus' comment.

Theuniondivvie said:

Q: Without the superficial Etonian varnish and Latin epigrams, would Mogg have been seen through years & years & years ago?

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1114089657300602880

I rather think the concern was that the UK Government would enthusiastically take us in to the EU army, not that it would have been dragged in without its consent. We didn't get a vote to install a Government and political class that fought tooth and nail for the interests of the British people, we got a vote on whether to leave the EU. You do the best with what you're given.

Morning all

The first point about the Newport West numbers is how close they are to the 2010 and 2015 GE numbers so roughly 40% Labour and 30% Conservative. The rest of the voters have been widely shared across a range of votes - in 2010 about 15% voted LD and in 2015 15% voted UKIP. In 2017 Plaid, UKIP, the LDs and Greens got 8.5% between them - last night it was 22% with Renew getting nearly 4% so a big swing away from the two main parties and to the smaller parties.

Nationally, it's the contrast between the GEs of June 1970 and Feb 1974. In 1970, the Conservative and Labour parties won 89.5% of the vote and in Feb 1974 that fell to 75.1%. In 2017 the two main parties won 82.4% of the vote - if we are reverting to 2010/2015 norms we would be looking at 65-70% so both Conservative and Labour parties looking at big vote share falls which won't be reflected in falls in seats to anywhere near the same extent.

That would chime with recent polls putting both Conservative and Labour in the mid 30s but with the rest of the vote continuing to be widely spread with both UKIP and LDs doing better but still a long way from their optimum GE performances.

Theuniondivvie said:

Q: Without the superficial Etonian varnish and Latin epigrams, would Mogg have been seen through years & years & years ago?

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1114089657300602880

Whilst screwing up the EU would be hilarious it would also be damaging economically and to any chance of being seen worldwide as more than Miss Haversham, a sad old crone pissing herself in her 50 year old wedding gown and taking out her bitterness on all around. So, shits and giggles versus being a power, however fading