As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.
Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.
Overall, a swing to pro Remain parties exceeding UKIP and assorted neo nazis.
The Lib Dems: losing deposits one by-election at a time.
Some good prospects in the locals and in the Euro elections I think
Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National Position 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Businesses never *wanted* to move to Europe. But increasingly those that do a lot of trade in the EU27 are going to have no other option.
As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.
Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.
Overall, a swing to pro Remain parties exceeding UKIP and assorted neo nazis.
The Lib Dems: losing deposits one by-election at a time.
Some good prospects in the locals and in the Euro elections I think
I shall be voting Lib Dem in the locals and Brexit in the Euros.
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National Position 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Businesses never *wanted* to move to Europe. But increasingly those that do a lot of trade in the EU27 are going to have no other option.
ERG complete lack of understanding or care for business is one of the most depressing parts of brexit
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National PositLaiion 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
Words fail me
Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.
Err - Thatcher was quite keen on the single market....
Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum
Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.
Those saying the UK is not a free country inside the EU are just insulting and demeaning the experiences of all those people who genuinely do not live in free countries. It’s really rather pathetic.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National Position 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
That it has spent the last couple of years trolling business ?
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National PositLaiion 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
Words fail me
Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.
Err - Thatcher was quite keen on the single market....
So was I. Thatcher fought to lower rules and barriers not erect them as Europe does now. A Europe of enterprise and deregulation there would be no reason to leave, but she 'did not successfully roll back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them reimposed at European level, with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.'
Those saying the UK is not a free country inside the EU are just insulting and demeaning the experiences of all those people who genuinely do not live in free countries. It’s really rather pathetic.
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National PositLaiion 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
Words fail me
Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.
Err - Thatcher was quite keen on the single market....
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National Position 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Businesses never *wanted* to move to Europe. But increasingly those that do a lot of trade in the EU27 are going to have no other option.
ERG complete lack of understanding or care for business is one of the most depressing parts of brexit
I would argue it is Remainers who don't understand business which is why they're so afraid of the big bad wolf of Brexit. Or not joining the Euro. Or leaving the ERM.
Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum
Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.
You seem to have overlooked that under the flextension there isn't an easy route to no deal.
The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. You only get to no deal by keeping the political impasse going for a whole year, and then hoping there won't be a further extension. Public appetite for no deal after all that is going to be pretty low, and some sort of deal during that period far more likely. A CU type deal is almost there already. And it looks unlikely the Tories can survive intact for a year.
The political reality is that the only ways out of it will be soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National PositLaiion 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
Words fail me
Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.
Well it was certainly responsible for the birth of Communism, if that's what you mean.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
Words fail me
Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.
Err - Thatcher was quite keen on the single market....
So was I. Thatcher fought to lower rules and barriers not erect them as Europe does now. A Europe of enterprise and deregulation there would be no reason to leave, but she 'did not successfully roll back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them reimposed at European level, with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.'
The reason that Brexit is difficult is that it is the first trade deal we have negotiated with an explicit aim of raising barriers. New barriers not just with the EU, but also with all the countries that the EU has deals with.
I can understand the nativist, protectionist case for Brexit, but the free trading case is poppycock.
Meanwhile, here in Germany Brexit is not so much in the news. Today it doesn't make the news at all (because Nothing Has Changed?). People (ie people I talk to, not a representative sample) seem sick of it. There's probably little political pressure to help the UK out or avoid a No Deal, because whatever happens it seems people will put the blame on the UK.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National Position 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Businesses never *wanted* to move to Europe. But increasingly those that do a lot of trade in the EU27 are going to have no other option.
ERG complete lack of understanding or care for business is one of the most depressing parts of brexit
I would argue it is Remainers who don't understand business which is why they're so afraid of the big bad wolf of Brexit. Or not joining the Euro. Or leaving the ERM.
I have had my business for over 20 years. I speak to business people every day, those that run businesses large and small, and even the few oddities that were in favour of Brexit think no deal is insane. There is not a single business organisation that think it would work out well. So once, again, you are talking bollox. Are you sure you are not actually a Moscow based troll?
Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum
Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.
You seem to have overlooked that under the flextension there isn't an easy route to no deal.
The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. You only get to no deal by keeping the political impasse going for a whole year, and then hoping there won't be a further extension. Public appetite for no deal after all that is going to be pretty low, and some sort of deal during that period far more likely. A CU type deal is almost there already.
The political reality is that the only ways out of it will be soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.
If there isn't a referendum the extension ends on 12 April 2020.
I suggested we break the impasse by replacing May [and Fox] and fixing May's mistakes and prep properly for No Deal. Build border posts on the Irish border if we have to, while holding out an olive branch that we will ratify the deal if they drop the backstop.
If they drop the backstop we get a good deal and exit. If they don't we make sure we're prepared to exit on 12 April 2020. Public attitude to No Deal is higher than for revocation or extension and momentum is increasing support for No Deal as it happens. If we've prepared properly for it there's no reason we can't do it if need be - but if we prepare properly for it, there's every chance the EU will blink and give us a good deal. Win/win either way.
Those saying the UK is not a free country inside the EU are just insulting and demeaning the experiences of all those people who genuinely do not live in free countries. It’s really rather pathetic.
Well said. Those that spout such crap are those who seem to consciously or unconsciously support the foreign policy objective of that great lover of freedom, Vladimir Putin.
It is a truth almost universally unacknowledged that most Remain supporters in most Labour seats were Labour voters in 2017, while most Leave supporters were not.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum
Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.
You seem to have overlooked that under the flextension there isn't an easy route to no deal.
The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. You only get to no deal by keeping the political impasse going for a whole year, and then hoping there won't be a further extension. Public appetite for no deal after all that is going to be pretty low, and some sort of deal during that period far more likely. A CU type deal is almost there already.
The political reality is that the only ways out of it will be soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.
If there isn't a referendum the extension ends on 12 April 2020.
I suggested we break the impasse by replacing May [and Fox] and fixing May's mistakes and prep properly for No Deal. Build border posts on the Irish border if we have to, while holding out an olive branch that we will ratify the deal if they drop the backstop.
If they drop the backstop we get a good deal and exit. If they don't we make sure we're prepared to exit on 12 April 2020. Public attitude to No Deal is higher than for revocation or extension and momentum is increasing support for No Deal as it happens. If we've prepared properly for it there's no reason we can't do it if need be - but if we prepare properly for it, there's every chance the EU will blink and give us a good deal. Win/win either way.
I believe a further referendum would be sensible at this stage.
Much as I would wish otherwise, I think the Deal would win easily over Remain. Many people just want it done. I don't think moderate Leavers have anything to fear; the hardliners will lose their WTO crash-out though.
Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum
Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.
You seem to have overlooked that under the flextension there isn't an easy route to no deal.
The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. You only get to no deal by keeping the political impasse going for a whole year, and then hoping there won't be a further extension. Public appetite for no deal after all that is going to be pretty low, and some sort of deal during that period far more likely. A CU type deal is almost there already.
The political reality is that the only ways out of it will be soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.
If there isn't a referendum the extension ends on 12 April 2020.
I suggested we break the impasse by replacing May [and Fox] and fixing May's mistakes and prep properly for No Deal. Build border posts on the Irish border if we have to, while holding out an olive branch that we will ratify the deal if they drop the backstop.
If they drop the backstop we get a good deal and exit. If they don't we make sure we're prepared to exit on 12 April 2020. Public attitude to No Deal is higher than for revocation or extension and momentum is increasing support for No Deal as it happens. If we've prepared properly for it there's no reason we can't do it if need be - but if we prepare properly for it, there's every chance the EU will blink and give us a good deal. Win/win either way.
Not sure there is support for No Deal if you actually look at the data,
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a referendum may well happen as it creates the space for it. Of course the limited thinking of ERG is they have longer to plan a no deal, completely unware that public demand for a referendum is likely to overwhelm them. And I do not support a referendum
Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.
You seem to have overlooked that under the flextension there isn't an easy route to no deal.
The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. You only get to no deal by keeping the political impasse going for a whole year, and then hoping there won't be a further extension. Public appetite for no deal after all that is going to be pretty low, and some sort of deal during that period far more likely. A CU type deal is almost there already.
The political reality is that the only ways out of it will be soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.
If there isn't a referendum the extension ends on 12 April 2020.
I suggested we break the impasse by replacing May [and Fox] and fixing May's mistakes and prep properly for No Deal. Build border posts on the Irish border if we have to, while holding out an olive branch that we will ratify the deal if they drop the backstop.
If they drop the backstop we get a good deal and exit. If they don't we make sure we're prepared to exit on 12 April 2020. Public attitude to No Deal is higher than for revocation or extension and momentum is increasing support for No Deal as it happens. If we've prepared properly for it there's no reason we can't do it if need be - but if we prepare properly for it, there's every chance the EU will blink and give us a good deal. Win/win either way.
I believe a further referendum would be sensible at this stage.
Much as I would wish otherwise, I think the Deal would win easily over Remain. Many people just want it done. I don't think moderate Leavers have anything to fear; the hardliners will lose their WTO crash-out though.
Edit: and we Remainers would really have to accept it at that point.
Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
The extension will not be in place before the Council meeting on the 10th April but it does look very likely a support a referendum
Some unreconciled remainers demand a referendum, not the public. The fact that you as a remainer do not support it demonstrates that. If we extend we can fix May's mistakes [and Fox's] and leave properly.
You seem to have overlooked that under the flextension there isn't an easy route to no deal.
The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. You only get to no deal by keeping the political impasse going for a whole year, and then hoping there won't be a further extension. Public appetite for no deal after all that is going to be pretty low, and some sort of deal during that period far more likely. A CU type deal is almost there already.
The political reality is that the only ways out of it will be soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.
If there isn't a referendum the extension ends on 12 April 2020.
I suggested we break the impasse by replacing May [and Fox] and fixing May's mistakes and prep properly for No Deal. Build border posts on the Irish border if we have to, while holding out an olive branch that we will ratify the deal if they drop the backstop.
If they drop the backstop we get a good deal and exit. If they don't we make sure we're prepared to exit on 12 April 2020. Public attitude to No Deal is higher than for revocation or extension and momentum is increasing support for No Deal as it happens. If we've prepared properly for it there's no reason we can't do it if need be - but if we prepare properly for it, there's every chance the EU will blink and give us a good deal. Win/win either way.
Regardless of all your assumptions, it isn't going to happen. Government has come out against no deal (and notice no resignations from Brexiter Cabbers) and the large majority of MPs are against no deal. You only get there is there's a GE and somehow a majority of no deal MPs is elected. I don't see it.
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National PositLaiion 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
Words fail me
Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.
Here's a thought. The reason why Angela M & co now worry about No Deal is because the close vote makes Revoke likely. If we revoke and May goes, to be replaced by a Brexiteer, then the UK could be a fully fledged member who vetoes everything and blocks the EU budget. It's not No Deal that the EU fears - but us staying as disgruntled members and a block to EU business. Maybe that is the message from the close votes this week...
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0° National Position 1° Nat 0° 0° EU Leave % 53% 52% 52% British Identity 31% 26% 29% Good Health 46% 47% 48% UK Born 92% 95% 88% Good Education 38% 36% 39% Good Job 52% 46% 51% High SEC 50% 46% 51% Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5 ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
The swing should worry Labour all the more.
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
The longer the delay the more likely we remain
And the more likely we get a better deal.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
Businesses never *wanted* to move to Europe. But increasingly those that do a lot of trade in the EU27 are going to have no other option.
ERG complete lack of understanding or care for business is one of the most depressing parts of brexit
I would argue it is Remainers who don't understand business which is why they're so afraid of the big bad wolf of Brexit. Or not joining the Euro. Or leaving the ERM.
I have had my business for over 20 years. I speak to business people every day, those that run businesses large and small, and even the few oddities that were in favour of Brexit think no deal is insane. There is not a single business organisation that think it would work out well. So once, again, you are talking bollox. Are you sure you are not actually a Moscow based troll?
Any flextension would need a notice period I would have thought . And of course MEPs who have to ratify any deal will be off for the summer . Tusks offer seems designed to give the UK some space and also enough time to ditch this lunacy .
Tusk is one of my favourite EU politicians , strange I know but each time I see him on tv I have this urge to run up and give him a huge hug especially after he does that hmmm in his conferences , you know when hes trying to find the right English words .What a lovely kind man who fought for freedom and knows hardship not the fraudulent man of the people hate peddler Farage and the rest of the lying spivs who delivered Brexit.
O/T Numpty question: does Switzerland pay into the EU for market access? Also, I think I am right in saying they have to adopt EU standards but have no real say?
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
Pathetic. Nationalism is the nasty evil cousin of patriotism. Scottish nationalism is particularly hypocritical. Britain, as an entity, is as much a Scottish invention as an English one, and as I said on here the other day, Scotland has been massively overrepresented in the British state by Scots and their descendants. It could be argued that the repression of Ireland was driven strongly by the Scots. The SNP has some very unpleasant history that connects it strongly with 1930s fascism, and its polarising divisive politics makes the ERG and their fellow travellers in UKIP and the EDL look like a bunch of amateurs
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
+1
Over 6,000 people turned out for UKIP in Newport West in 2015. Yesterday not much more than 2,000 could bother.
Most people outside the bubble have just had enough. Had enough of Brexit and had enough of politics and politicians. And, of those that really care, there are now as many pro-Europeans as anti. Which is new.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU" five seconds later : "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
No we are not.
Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?
Yes international rules and obligations.
In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.
Can you rephrase this, I don't understand what you mean
WTO rules are international affecting everyone. For instance the concept of MFN.
EU/Customs Union rules are national affecting the nations it applies to.
Under the WTO we would be a free nation setting our own national laws within the established international order. In the EU/CU some of our national rules will be set by the EU. In the latter case without us even getting a say.
WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.
For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.
But claiming In the EU=not a free country. Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country is illogical
I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.
O/T Numpty question: does Switzerland pay into the EU for market access? Also, I think I am right in saying they have to adopt EU standards but have no real say?
Yes, and yes. We will continue to have to adopt EU standards even if we follow the headbanger route if we want to sell products to European countries, and many others around the world that adopt the CE mark as their regulatory standard. Most EU rules that leavers ignorantly bleat about relate to this, and as such we will still need to abide by them if we wish to sell products there.
Mr. Foremain, but not domestically. And exporting to any market (whether a nation or trading bloc) requires said export to meet the requisite standards of the market.
Whereas under the EU, UK firms, even that are 100% domestic and export nothing to the other EU member-states, must obey all EU standards.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I think it's bad news for Farage and co. The Ukip brand is strong and whilst we are all aware of what's gone on, a lot of people won't have a clue.
I think someone on here said Farage could get his name on the ballot for the Euros. That would be helpful, but I think he'll need to put in a lot of work between now and May 23 to get his party above Ukip.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
People on this site accuse me of having become an ultra but then I'd 100% have voted Conservative if I was in that seat.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I suspect most people don't yet appreciate how obnoxious UKIP's policies have become.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I suspect most people don't yet appreciate how obnoxious UKIP's policies have become.
To be fair on Neil Hamilton (a thing I never expected to say!) I don't think he is a fan of the Tommy Robinsonisation of UKIP.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I suspect most people don't yet appreciate how obnoxious UKIP's policies have become.
To be fair on Neil Hamilton (a thing I never expected to say!) I don't think he is a fan of the Tommy Robinsonisation of UKIP.
Tommy Robinson is simply the personification that UKIP have always been. They are just a bit more open about I now
It seems more voters like May's attempts to produce a compromise Brexit Deal than hard Brexiteers first thought
Would it be heresy to suggest that Brexit made bugger all difference in Newport? And that issues like Labour in Wales being crap on the NHS and the problems of traffic on the M4 were just as important?
For a supposedly smart bloke, Tomkins shows worrying signs of being dumb. Didn't he at some Holyrood finance committee ask why companies should pay tax when they didn't have a vote?
Mr. 64, it's an interesting possibility. And welcome to PB.
In unrelated news, it's reported Prince Harry thinks Fortnite should be banned.
It looks like a pretty pointless game to me, but banning stuff is an unwelcome new fashion and not something royalty should be promoting.
Proving his right on connections ...
What an arse
Speaking of potential bans, here's an example of the EU Parliament looking very stupid (and I post this with no pleasure, as an ardent Remainer). Hopefully, sense will prevail.
If ever there was a moment when leavers had the chance of a free hit in a by-election when Brexit is supposedly being "betrayed" I would have thought this would have been it.
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The choice was between a People's Vote backing Labour candidate and a Tory candidate who voted to Leave, in a remarkably safe Labour seat, 9 years into Tory governance and there was a swing from the the Labour to the Tories.
Not quite my point. To listen to some in the press on PB you would be forgiven for believing that leavers were so incensed at what is going on that they are on the brink of civil unrest. UKIP then poll 8.6% in a by-election.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I suspect most people don't yet appreciate how obnoxious UKIP's policies have become.
To be fair on Neil Hamilton (a thing I never expected to say!) I don't think he is a fan of the Tommy Robinsonisation of UKIP.
Tommy Robinson is simply the personification that UKIP have always been. They are just a bit more open about I now
I dont think so. There was always a rather Blimpish League of Empire Loyalists whiff to the old UKIP, archaic and nostalgic, but not overtly racist.
WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.
For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.
But claiming In the EU=not a free country. Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country is illogical
I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.
No we do not have more in common with Europeans. We have more in common historically, culturally, linguistically and even in our Common Law legal system with English-speaking Commonwealth nations like Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do Germany, Hungary or Romania.
In the Customs Union we patently would not be a free nation since our Customs laws and regulations will be set by countries that are not us. As far as customs are concerned we would be an EU colony.
In the EU we are free in the extent that we get to have a say in the EU laws but only at an EU level not a national level.
It seems more voters like May's attempts to produce a compromise Brexit Deal than hard Brexiteers first thought
Would it be heresy to suggest that Brexit made bugger all difference in Newport? And that issues like Labour in Wales being crap on the NHS and the problems of traffic on the M4 were just as important?
It would be hard-leaver wishful thinking, I suspect.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I think many of Mr & Mrs Joe Voter are probably unaware of the the more colourful recent history of UKIP. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if the average "Joe" still thought Nigel Farage was full engaged with the Kippers.
Additionally Neil Hamilton has a high profile in Wales.
Mr. Floater, aye. As I said, Fortnite's absolutely not my type of game, but "Waaa, ban this!" is a pathetic line to be taken generally, and especially from someone with a very high public profile.
I remember a BBC segment about kids addicted to gaming and the actual amount of time was not remotely worrying (something like an hour a night). Gaming addiction can be a real problem, for both children and adults (particularly in South Korea where there have been instances of people dying after playing literally days straight, or letting their children starve), but trivialising the problem by draconian tomfoolery or wildly exaggerating the definition of it is pointless and, worse, dilutes the prospect of actually addressing the issue.
Mr. Pointer, yeah, not especially serious but still a dumb move from the EU.
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I think many of Mr & Mrs Joe Voter are probably unaware of the the more colourful recent history of UKIP. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if the average "Joe" still thought Nigel Farage was full engaged with the Kippers.
Additionally Neil Hamilton has a high profile in Wales.
Who the hell are the 7,000+ people who voted Conservative in Newport West?
Seriously you've got to be out of your mid to vioe Tory at this point?
3,000 who fear Corbyn. 3,000 who feel sorry for Mrs May with the job from hell surrounded by impossible men. And 1,000 who never ever read the news or turn on the radio.
WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.
For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.
But claiming In the EU=not a free country. Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country is illogical
I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.
No we do not have more in common with Europeans. We have more in common historically, culturally, linguistically and even in our Common Law legal system with English-speaking Commonwealth nations like Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do Germany, Hungary or Romania.
So we should get out of this unnatural union with Europeans with 'foreign' legal systems like Scotland's?
Mr. Foremain, but not domestically. And exporting to any market (whether a nation or trading bloc) requires said export to meet the requisite standards of the market.
Whereas under the EU, UK firms, even that are 100% domestic and export nothing to the other EU member-states, must obey all EU standards.
That's true, but is that a problem? I mean outside of the EU, 100% domestic firms would have to obey UK standards, and I don't see any good reason why UK standards would be generally better than EU standards, thought hopefully somebody could give some examples?
Mr. Floater, aye. As I said, Fortnite's absolutely not my type of game, but "Waaa, ban this!" is a pathetic line to be taken generally, and especially from someone with a very high public profile.
I remember a BBC segment about kids addicted to gaming and the actual amount of time was not remotely worrying (something like an hour a night). Gaming addiction can be a real problem, for both children and adults (particularly in South Korea where there have been instances of people dying after playing literally days straight, or letting their children starve), but trivialising the problem by draconian tomfoolery or wildly exaggerating the definition of it is pointless and, worse, dilutes the prospect of actually addressing the issue.
Mr. Pointer, yeah, not especially serious but still a dumb move from the EU.
Still it will be good to see the outraged Telegraph defending the right of veggies to eat veggie-burgers.
The preliminary investigation into the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 last month revealed Thursday that pilots began fighting the Boeing 737 MAX’s new automatic flight-control system barely a minute after leaving the ground, after a sensor failed shortly after takeoff....
The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.
In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.
WTO rules only apply to countries that belong to the WTO, not "everyone". EU rules only apply to countries that belong to the EU. I don't see a fundamental difference, just one of degree, and the size of the group.
For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.
But claiming In the EU=not a free country. Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country is illogical
I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.
No we do not have more in common with Europeans. We have more in common historically, culturally, linguistically and even in our Common Law legal system with English-speaking Commonwealth nations like Canada, Australia and New Zealand than we do Germany, Hungary or Romania.
So we should get out of this unnatural union with Europeans with 'foreign' legal systems like Scotland's?
It wasn’t people who wanted to respect the referendum result that were inferring the smaller parties finishing position in the Newport by election would infer anything re the nationwide mood.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
I think many of Mr & Mrs Joe Voter are probably unaware of the the more colourful recent history of UKIP. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if the average "Joe" still thought Nigel Farage was full engaged with the Kippers.
Additionally Neil Hamilton has a high profile in Wales.
The preliminary investigation into the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 last month revealed Thursday that pilots began fighting the Boeing 737 MAX’s new automatic flight-control system barely a minute after leaving the ground, after a sensor failed shortly after takeoff....
The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.
In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.
Comments
An interesting offer from Tusk. Certainly makes more sense than lots of mini extensions , enough time to hopefully rid the country of the Tories .
https://www.walmart.com/ip/Ready-America-FT-88510-10-Pack-Flextension-Tube-Tip/106770379
They got 8.6% so I think it is fair to say that the population is nowhere near as enraged about Brexit as the Mail, Telegraph and a few PB posters keep telling us they are. Very timely by-election
The extension lasts for a year, at least (and could theoretically be extended again). If there's a referendum the outcomes are a soft Brexit or no Brexit. If there isn't a referendum the extension only ends if we get a deal, which will be a soft Brexit. You only get to no deal by keeping the political impasse going for a whole year, and then hoping there won't be a further extension. Public appetite for no deal after all that is going to be pretty low, and some sort of deal during that period far more likely. A CU type deal is almost there already. And it looks unlikely the Tories can survive intact for a year.
The political reality is that the only ways out of it will be soft Brexit or no Brexit. Otherwise the EU just postpones. Whatever you think of the EU, they are giving us a political masterclass.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
It seems more voters like May's attempts to produce a compromise Brexit Deal than hard Brexiteers first thought
I can understand the nativist, protectionist case for Brexit, but the free trading case is poppycock.
I suggested we break the impasse by replacing May [and Fox] and fixing May's mistakes and prep properly for No Deal. Build border posts on the Irish border if we have to, while holding out an olive branch that we will ratify the deal if they drop the backstop.
If they drop the backstop we get a good deal and exit. If they don't we make sure we're prepared to exit on 12 April 2020. Public attitude to No Deal is higher than for revocation or extension and momentum is increasing support for No Deal as it happens. If we've prepared properly for it there's no reason we can't do it if need be - but if we prepare properly for it, there's every chance the EU will blink and give us a good deal. Win/win either way.
Why don't you tell me who's on the phone?”
Much as I would wish otherwise, I think the Deal would win easily over Remain. Many people just want it done. I don't think moderate Leavers have anything to fear; the hardliners will lose their WTO crash-out though.
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1113764788486721536?s=19
So my first PL match at WHL2 did happen before Brexit... first trophy before it too?
Tusk is one of my favourite EU politicians , strange I know but each time I see him on tv I have this urge to run up and give him a huge hug especially after he does that hmmm in his conferences , you know when hes trying to find the right English words .What a lovely kind man who fought for freedom and knows hardship not the fraudulent man of the people hate peddler Farage and the rest of the lying spivs who delivered Brexit.
Indeed, I think the survey just shows the appetite for foreign military adventurism, USA > UK > France > Germany, and not much else.
It's not happening. The ultras in their comfortable newspaper offices are desperately trying to whip up the troops into a frenzy but most of the troops (Yaxley-Lennon apart) are remaining steadfastly unwipped. Farage's pitiful march was another indication.
Over 6,000 people turned out for UKIP in Newport West in 2015. Yesterday not much more than 2,000 could bother.
Most people outside the bubble have just had enough. Had enough of Brexit and had enough of politics and politicians. And, of those that really care, there are now as many pro-Europeans as anti. Which is new.
In unrelated news, it's reported Prince Harry thinks Fortnite should be banned.
It looks like a pretty pointless game to me, but banning stuff is an unwelcome new fashion and not something royalty should be promoting.
UKIP saving a deposit with its current set up is surprising though.
For me it's not a question of principle, but whether you think, like me, that we have more in common (and more common interests) with our European neighbours, and therefore it is in our interests to share more rules with them, than with the wider 159 members of the WTO. Or not.
But claiming
In the EU=not a free country.
Remaining a member of other international organisations/treaties=we are a free country
is illogical
I think some people just hate the idea of Britain cooperating with other Europeans, and having to treat people like the Germans as equals. Obviously not true of lots of leavers, but people like Jenkin really annoy me.
Translation: I want the impasse to continue.
Whereas under the EU, UK firms, even that are 100% domestic and export nothing to the other EU member-states, must obey all EU standards.
I think someone on here said Farage could get his name on the ballot for the Euros. That would be helpful, but I think he'll need to put in a lot of work between now and May 23 to get his party above Ukip.
UKIP are racists not leavers.
What an arse
That will strengthen May's hand. The ERG doomongers (doommongers?) have been thwarted.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/apr/04/eu-to-ban-non-meat-product-labels-veggie-burgers-and-vegan-steaks
Seriously you've got to be out of your mind to vote Tory at this point?
In the Customs Union we patently would not be a free nation since our Customs laws and regulations will be set by countries that are not us. As far as customs are concerned we would be an EU colony.
In the EU we are free in the extent that we get to have a say in the EU laws but only at an EU level not a national level.
Additionally Neil Hamilton has a high profile in Wales.
I remember a BBC segment about kids addicted to gaming and the actual amount of time was not remotely worrying (something like an hour a night). Gaming addiction can be a real problem, for both children and adults (particularly in South Korea where there have been instances of people dying after playing literally days straight, or letting their children starve), but trivialising the problem by draconian tomfoolery or wildly exaggerating the definition of it is pointless and, worse, dilutes the prospect of actually addressing the issue.
Mr. Pointer, yeah, not especially serious but still a dumb move from the EU.
The “black box” flight-recorder data shows that after MCAS swiveled the plane’s horizontal tail to push the nose sharply down three times in succession, the pilots hit the cut-off switches stopping the automatic action and tried to adjust the tail manually, according to the report by the Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia’s Transport Ministry.
In doing so, they were following instructions provided by Boeing last November, following the crash of Lion Air Flight 610, on how to deal with such an inadvertent triggering of the new flight-control system.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/preliminary-crash-report-reveals-detail-of-ethiopian-pilots-fight-against-the-737-max-flight-controls/
(fully engaged?) ...if we're calling typos out