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SystemSystem Posts: 12,763
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boost for beleaguered TMay as the Tories hold second place in Newport W with swing from LAB to CON

Newport West Result:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Much of a nothingness by-election to be honest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,329
    FPT
    fitalass said:

    First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.

    It shows that even in a ‘Leave’ seat, the Labour vote can splinter towards pro-Remain parties.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    fitalass said:

    First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.

    It shows that even in a ‘Leave’ seat, the Labour vote can splinter towards pro-Remain parties.
    It shows in a by-election the major parties votes can splinter towards minor parties.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Much of a nothingness by-election to be honest.

    How common is it for the main opposition party to drop 13 percentage points at a by-election?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,986
    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,329
    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    They got almost double that share of the vote in 2015.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,793
    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,986
    williamglenn said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    They got almost double that share of the vote in 2015.
    They had a functioning party and a leader people had heard of in 2015.

    What I see from this result is that when given a free hit, leavers are willing to dump Lab/Con and lend UKIP a protest vote. Even though UKIP are barely a party any more.

    If we do end up participating in euro elections later this year this result will inform my betting.

    I voted leave but I take no joy in seeing the UKIP share of vote rise while lab/con fall.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,986
    edmundintokyo said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
    Sometimes a fart is an early warning...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    A Curate's egg for the main parties:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1113962288707448838
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited April 2019
    And another view (tho notable who they don't comment upon...):

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113976005012664321
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    And another view (tho notable who they don't comment upon...):

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113976005012664321

    Perhaps they aren't sure if UKIP is ENF (Savlini/Le Pen) or EFDD (Farage and five star) - as some of their MEPs still sit with Farage in the latter although Batten sits with the former in Brussels

    Perhaps Neil Hamilton isn't sure!

    Didn't realise the new Renew party was allied with Mrs Merkel and Mr Juncker! Perhaps the Lib Dems stopped them joning with the Liberals.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,793
    brendan16 said:


    Didn't realise the new Renew party was allied with Mrs Merkel and Mr Juncker! Perhaps the Lib Dems stopped them joning with the Liberals.

    Somebody ran a party like this in London in the last Euros as well. I guess it's weird that Britain doesn't have a conservative party, and they thought they should test how popular one would be. (Not massively popular, it turns out.)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,414
    JICIPM?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Latest Brexit rumour: Tusk preparing to offer 12-month A50 extension, with early exit clause if a Withdrawal Agreement is ratified. That's a whole extra year for Parliament to agree on nothing, if true. And if the 27 are willing to go along with it.

    With respect to the by-election, I'd tend to agree that it isn't very revealing. Labour will be satisfied to have held, the Tories will be satisfied that their vote share has not gone completely down the loo (and, indeed, has held up a bit better than Labour's,) but that's about it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1113834972601815042
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,271
    The tweet from the Tory last night suggested it had been damned hard work getting their vote out, or stopping it drifting over to UKIP. The management expectaton from Labour suggested the same. All candidates got into three figures, on a low turnout, suggesting there's no love left for the big two parties.

    Not a surprise there. But there will be plenty of MPs uneasy about their job security this morning, if we are headed for an early election. Time to finally pass May's Shit Deal?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    "Good neighbours". Discuss,

    https://twitter.com/MKarnitschnig/status/1113760351299018752
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MarqueeMark said:

    The tweet from the Tory last night suggested it had been damned hard work getting their vote out, or stopping it drifting over to UKIP. The management expectaton from Labour suggested the same. All candidates got into three figures, on a low turnout, suggesting there's no love left for the big two parties.

    Not a surprise there. But there will be plenty of MPs uneasy about their job security this morning, if we are headed for an early election. Time to finally pass May's Shit Deal?

    I doubt it. Too many entrenched positions, especially given that the No Dealers and People's Voters are both in with a chance of winning if a straightforward MV4 fails or is never held.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    How do you lose a quarter of your vote share in a seat you've held for 30 years when the government has been in power for nine years and looks like a refugee from a sketch by Monty Python?

    Part of it may be Flynn's personal vote share unwinding. People who would have voted for him probably saw no reason to vote for Labour at this moment.

    But it's still a poor result for Labour.

    It's funny that Corbyn, who whatever his many faults is undoubtedly a superb campaigner and street pounder, simply can't get by-elections right. Copeland was of course the most disastrous but Stoke and now Newport are showing that Labour are simply no good at them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,810
    edmundintokyo said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
    If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The central point for me is that both main parties lost vote share. The hoovering up that took place between them in 2017 unwound and then some. Now this may just be because it’s a by-election but it potentially makes the next election very difficult to predict indeed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The central point for me is that both main parties lost vote share. The hoovering up that took place between them in 2017 unwound and then some. Now this may just be because it’s a by-election but it potentially makes the next election very difficult to predict indeed.

    How often have I said that the next election will be decided by who loses the least number of votes? It's still very likely to be true.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    edited April 2019
    So much for all these anecdotes that people are desperate for the chance to protest about not getting Brexit.

    UKIP share only just over half what they got in 2015. Boosts for various anti-Brexit parties. Low turnout. No real enthusiasm for the larger parties but otherwise little to see here.

    Another MP for the side of sanity in parliament, hopefully.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,065
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    I'm having trouble getting a stable connection to PB.

    I blame Brexit, Corbyn and all these unicorns you see everywhere on the site.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    IanB2 said:


    Another MP for the side of sanity in parliament, hopefully.

    Really? I thought she was joining Labour.

    (While I know what you meant, I don't think there is a sane side in Parliament right now.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    edited April 2019
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    fitalass said:

    First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.

    It shows that even in a ‘Leave’ seat, the Labour vote can splinter towards pro-Remain parties.
    A ghost from the past Fitalaff back, CCHQ must really be scared.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,985
    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,103
    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    I wonder if name recognition had anything to do with it - he's famous but can't remember why.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1113890811912032257
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    A no-deal Brexit could have "significant implications" on an EU-led military operation in Bosnia, European diplomats have warned.

    The U.K. plays a key role in Operation Althea, the European Union's peacekeeping mission based in Sarajevo, but might have to withdraw abruptly from the deployment in case of a no-deal departure....

    The U.K. currently provides "most of the capabilities" in terms of military force and intelligence, a third diplomat said.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-of-brexit-implications-on-peacekeeping-mission-in-bosnia/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Seems like there was an overall move to Remain-backing parties in a constituency that voted Leave in 2016. It was a low turnout, so we can’t read too much into it - except that Remain-backers are pretty energised and Labour potentially has a very, very big problem.

    It’s worth remembering that in most Leave constituencies most Remain voters were Labour voters. It doesn’t take many of those Remain voters to feel betrayed and to switch for Labour to be in all kinds of trouble.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    CarlottaVance said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1113890811912032257
    Does he work for the Student Loan Company? He can't even work out when it's April 1st.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,377
    Foxy said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
    If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.
    Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    SouthamObserver said:

    Seems like there was an overall move to Remain-backing parties in a constituency that voted Leave in 2016. It was a low turnout, so we can’t read too much into it - except that Remain-backers are pretty energised and Labour potentially has a very, very big problem.

    It’s worth remembering that in most Leave constituencies most Remain voters were Labour voters. It doesn’t take many of those Remain voters to feel betrayed and to switch for Labour to be in all kinds of trouble.

    Which does of course presuppose Brexit is the key driver of their vote choice. For Labour, there is of course evidence to suggest it isn't, although that could change.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    edited April 2019
    Jonathan said:

    You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.

    Probably right. It seems unsurprising that voters aren't keen on either major party. The difference though is that if Labour changed leader (to someone without the baggage) they would likely get an immediate boost. A change of leader for the Tories by contrast would have the opposite affect
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    ydoethur said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Seems like there was an overall move to Remain-backing parties in a constituency that voted Leave in 2016. It was a low turnout, so we can’t read too much into it - except that Remain-backers are pretty energised and Labour potentially has a very, very big problem.

    It’s worth remembering that in most Leave constituencies most Remain voters were Labour voters. It doesn’t take many of those Remain voters to feel betrayed and to switch for Labour to be in all kinds of trouble.

    Which does of course presuppose Brexit is the key driver of their vote choice. For Labour, there is of course evidence to suggest it isn't, although that could change.
    People who aren't obsessed by Brexit have to vote for someone.

    That over 6,000 voters turned out for UKIP in 2015 yet only 2,000 last night suggests the size of the angry army has been overestimated. Farage's tiny March and rally suggest the same.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,756
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1113834972601815042

    If you’re drawing comparisons, you might note that one chamber is actually elected...

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    logical_song said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    I wonder if name recognition had anything to do with it - he's famous but can't remember why.
    Everyone's got a soft spot for cash in a plain brown envelope
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    Do you guys not read UKpollingreport by Anthony Wells? After almost every by-election he writes almost the same thing...

    "As usual, by-elections don’t tell us a huge amount about the bigger political picture, but are very important in setting the political narrative.

    By-elections are very unusual beasts. Because they don’t decide who will form the government for the next five years, only who will be the local MP, people are comparatively free to use them to register a protest. They are much more fiercely contested than your average seat at a general election. The constituency itself will also normally have its own local ideosyncracities that mean it can’t just be read as if it is a microcosm of Britain as a whole. So when people ask me what by-elections tell us, I normally say not much: if the change in the vote is in line with what the national polls are showing then it tells us nothing we didn’t already know, if the change is different to the national polls it’s probably just because by-elections are very different to general elections."

    This was after the Stoke and Copeland Byelections in 2015
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9811
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,756
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Slackers.

    Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Inner Grammar Nazi begins the Horst Wessel...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:


    Another MP for the side of sanity in parliament, hopefully.

    Really? I thought she was joining Labour.

    (While I know what you meant, I don't think there is a sane side in Parliament right now.)
    Fair comment. I simply meant she is likely to add one to the numbers supporting Cooper/Letwin and a softer Brexit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,756
    Roger said:

    logical_song said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    I wonder if name recognition had anything to do with it - he's famous but can't remember why.
    Everyone's got a soft spot for cash in a plain brown envelope
    An interesting canvassing technique. Must have run out of envelopes, I guess.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,566
    That Lab to Con swing is huge.

    Utter vindication for Mrs May and her strategy on Brexit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,756
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Inner Grammar Nazi begins the Horst Wessel...
    That apostrophe was positively butchered.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Slackers.

    Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?

    It could be the early hour and my tea not having penetrated yet possibly, though more likely that I was busy laughing as my wife was looking at Rate my Haircut and it was a hoot. I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you, if I was being pedantic, given they tend to all close at different times etc up here just to confuse people.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.

    Probably right. It seems unsurprising that voters aren't keen on either major party. The difference though is that if Labour changed leader (to someone without the baggage) they would likely get an immediate boost. A change of leader for the Tories by contrast would have the opposite affect
    Given the TV coverage, the parties are lucky anyone turns out for a foregone conclusion.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Slackers.

    Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?

    I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you.
    In that case it should be 'school has.'
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    No sign that May has learnt anything , pig headed till the end.
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17552156.sturgeon-no-sign-of-may-compromising-on-brexit-deal/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    edited April 2019
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Slackers.

    Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?

    I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you.
    In that case it should be 'school has.'
    Bah Humbug, ok it was laziness and not checking what I posted.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Lab to Con swing is huge.

    Utter vindication for Mrs May and her strategy on Brexit.

    TBF any swing in that direction is pretty impressive. There may be a level of sympathy there for T. May which would disappear among some of the other contenders for her job. The mistakes she has made have been manifold but her basic position right now is sound
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    edited April 2019
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.

    Probably right. It seems unsurprising that voters aren't keen on either major party. The difference though is that if Labour changed leader (to someone without the baggage) they would likely get an immediate boost. A change of leader for the Tories by contrast would have the opposite affect
    Yes. The almost inexplicable parity of the two main parties arises almost entirely from the personalities of both leaders. In particular the Tories underestimate sympathy support for Mrs May, among those not paying much attention, at their peril.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,893
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Slackers.

    Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?

    I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you.
    In that case it should be 'school has.'
    Bah Humbug, ok it was laziness and not checking what I posted.
    Your penance is to watch The Last Jedi three times.

    And on that sentence, I have a last day to get to. Have a good day, everyone!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,329
    https://twitter.com/alexforsythbbc/status/1114041489804361728?s=21
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/alexforsythbbc/status/1114041489804361728?s=21

    If the BBC is right his reply will be that we can have up to a year, with a flexible early redemption option if we get an agreement earlier.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,810
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Lab to Con swing is huge.

    Utter vindication for Mrs May and her strategy on Brexit.

    Strong and Stable government, not a Coalition of Chaos!

    12 month flextension, probably good but is a terribble neoligism.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1114059750763847683
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Not in Edinburgh
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1114059750763847683

    He really doesn't understand the concept of the slippery slope, does he?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,810
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
    If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.
    Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.
    Overall, a swing to pro Remain parties exceeding UKIP and assorted neo nazis.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,810
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1114059750763847683

    He really doesn't understand the concept of the slippery slope, does he?
    He can barely understand the concept of breakfast, let alone Brexit...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    edited April 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,810
    IanB2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/alexforsythbbc/status/1114041489804361728?s=21

    If the BBC is right his reply will be that we can have up to a year, with a flexible early redemption option if we get an agreement earlier.
    Yes, the EU27 are much better at this than us. No Deal would have to be a conscious decision.

    12 months with Euro elections, and new party leaders, October GE.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    No we are not.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    How do you lose a quarter of your vote share in a seat you've held for 30 years when the government has been in power for nine years and looks like a refugee from a sketch by Monty Python?

    Part of it may be Flynn's personal vote share unwinding. People who would have voted for him probably saw no reason to vote for Labour at this moment.

    But it's still a poor result for Labour.

    It's funny that Corbyn, who whatever his many faults is undoubtedly a superb campaigner and street pounder, simply can't get by-elections right. Copeland was of course the most disastrous but Stoke and now Newport are showing that Labour are simply no good at them.

    It’s a cunning plan...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,056
    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    And the more likely we get a better deal.

    It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.

    It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.
    Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?
    Today's the last day.
    School's have been out for a week in Scotland
    Not in Edinburgh
    Amazing that holidays etc are so fragmented in Scotland. Though I do like to take both English and local bank holidays, gets a few extra days.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,408
    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    For god's sake don't trigger Philip.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    No we are not.
    Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    Breaking: BBC confirms PM will write to Brussels mid-morning to ask for extension
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,056
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    And the more likely we get a better deal.

    It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
    You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.

    The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    No we are not.
    Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?
    Yes international rules and obligations.

    In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    edited April 2019
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    Keep kicking that can, you would almost think that there has been a real plan for the last 3 years after all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,566
    https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1114063671741833216?s=21
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,394
    A twelve month extension means we vote in the EURO elections. I'm not sure what will change in that time, except for more uncertainty for business and more politicking. Without a strict deadline, nothing will ever be decided - that's the way bureaucrats work. Why pander to them?

    Is 37% a low turnout for a by-election?

    Is UKIP back in operation? I suspect it needs a definitive 'No' to Brexit before it will make much progress. With this Schrodinger version, it's still all up in the air, although delay can only help Brexit-fatigue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,329
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    No we are not.
    If we can’t achieve your preferred Brexit because of Northern Ireland, perhaps you’re looking at the wrong union.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    And the more likely we get a better deal.

    It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
    You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.

    The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
    I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?

    Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    No we are not.
    Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?
    Yes international rules and obligations.

    In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.
    Can you rephrase this, I don't understand what you mean
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1114059750763847683

    He really doesn't understand the concept of the slippery slope, does he?
    He can barely understand the concept of breakfast, let alone Brexit...
    I was formerly in the constituency of his father and at university with his son. Neither of them are that bright, but it was always clear he was going for a career in Tory politics.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,175
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: BBC confirms PM will write to Brussels mid-morning to ask for extension

    Breaking .........LOL, state propaganda mouthpiece gives out government propaganda, soften them up with Tusk message and then say St Theresa is writing to ask for exactly what he offered, how convenient. The sheeple will all be happy and return to grazing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,056
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    And the more likely we get a better deal.

    It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
    You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.

    The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
    I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?

    Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
    Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    No we are not.
    If we can’t achieve your preferred Brexit because of Northern Ireland, perhaps you’re looking at the wrong union.
    We can't achieve my preferred Brexit at the minute because Northern Ireland is being abused, not because it exists.

    While I'd prefer we were rid of Northern Ireland I only want them to leave if that is their choice, which they've not made. If the Republic and the EU won't come up with an equitable free trade deal without a backstop then we should leave anyway and have a border within Ireland. Its entirely manageable as Varadkar has already made clear.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    And the more likely we get a better deal.

    It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
    You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.

    The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
    I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?

    Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
    Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
    Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168
    edited April 2019
    Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.

    Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,056
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    And the more likely we get a better deal.

    It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
    You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.

    The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
    I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?

    Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
    Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
    Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
    Words fail me
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kamski said:

    Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
    five seconds later :
    "I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"

    sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.

    I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea

    Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.
    Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...
    No we are not.
    Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?
    Yes international rules and obligations.

    In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.
    Can you rephrase this, I don't understand what you mean
    WTO rules are international affecting everyone. For instance the concept of MFN.

    EU/Customs Union rules are national affecting the nations it applies to.

    Under the WTO we would be a free nation setting our own national laws within the established international order.
    In the EU/CU some of our national rules will be set by the EU. In the latter case without us even getting a say.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,377
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    kyf_100 said:

    As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.

    8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty sound
    If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.
    Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.
    Overall, a swing to pro Remain parties exceeding UKIP and assorted neo nazis.
    The Lib Dems: losing deposits one by-election at a time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nunuone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Newport West is a remarkably average seat:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West

    Newport West/Wales/GB

    Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
    National PositLaiion 1° Nat 0° 0°
    EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
    British Identity 31% 26% 29%
    Good Health 46% 47% 48%
    UK Born 92% 95% 88%
    Good Education 38% 36% 39%
    Good Job 52% 46% 51%
    High SEC 50% 46% 51%
    Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
    ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%

    The swing should worry Labour all the more.

    I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.

    * Not Brexit related but JFDI.
    The longer the delay the more likely we remain
    And the more likely we get a better deal.

    It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
    You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.

    The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
    I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?

    Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.
    Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.
    Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.
    Words fail me
    Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.
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