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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boost for beleaguered TMay as the Tories hold second place in Newport W with swing from LAB to CON
Newport West Result:
Comments
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Much of a nothingness by-election to be honest.0
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FPT
It shows that even in a ‘Leave’ seat, the Labour vote can splinter towards pro-Remain parties.fitalass said:First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
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It shows in a by-election the major parties votes can splinter towards minor parties.williamglenn said:FPT
It shows that even in a ‘Leave’ seat, the Labour vote can splinter towards pro-Remain parties.fitalass said:First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
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How common is it for the main opposition party to drop 13 percentage points at a by-election?Philip_Thompson said:Much of a nothingness by-election to be honest.
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As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.0
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They got almost double that share of the vote in 2015.kyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty soundkyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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They had a functioning party and a leader people had heard of in 2015.williamglenn said:
They got almost double that share of the vote in 2015.kyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
What I see from this result is that when given a free hit, leavers are willing to dump Lab/Con and lend UKIP a protest vote. Even though UKIP are barely a party any more.
If we do end up participating in euro elections later this year this result will inform my betting.
I voted leave but I take no joy in seeing the UKIP share of vote rise while lab/con fall.
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Sometimes a fart is an early warning...edmundintokyo said:
8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty soundkyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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And another view (tho notable who they don't comment upon...):
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/11139760050126643210 -
Perhaps they aren't sure if UKIP is ENF (Savlini/Le Pen) or EFDD (Farage and five star) - as some of their MEPs still sit with Farage in the latter although Batten sits with the former in BrusselsCarlottaVance said:And another view (tho notable who they don't comment upon...):
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113976005012664321
Perhaps Neil Hamilton isn't sure!
Didn't realise the new Renew party was allied with Mrs Merkel and Mr Juncker! Perhaps the Lib Dems stopped them joning with the Liberals.0 -
Somebody ran a party like this in London in the last Euros as well. I guess it's weird that Britain doesn't have a conservative party, and they thought they should test how popular one would be. (Not massively popular, it turns out.)brendan16 said:
Didn't realise the new Renew party was allied with Mrs Merkel and Mr Juncker! Perhaps the Lib Dems stopped them joning with the Liberals.0 -
JICIPM?0
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Latest Brexit rumour: Tusk preparing to offer 12-month A50 extension, with early exit clause if a Withdrawal Agreement is ratified. That's a whole extra year for Parliament to agree on nothing, if true. And if the 27 are willing to go along with it.
With respect to the by-election, I'd tend to agree that it isn't very revealing. Labour will be satisfied to have held, the Tories will be satisfied that their vote share has not gone completely down the loo (and, indeed, has held up a bit better than Labour's,) but that's about it.0 -
The tweet from the Tory last night suggested it had been damned hard work getting their vote out, or stopping it drifting over to UKIP. The management expectaton from Labour suggested the same. All candidates got into three figures, on a low turnout, suggesting there's no love left for the big two parties.
Not a surprise there. But there will be plenty of MPs uneasy about their job security this morning, if we are headed for an early election. Time to finally pass May's Shit Deal?0 -
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I doubt it. Too many entrenched positions, especially given that the No Dealers and People's Voters are both in with a chance of winning if a straightforward MV4 fails or is never held.MarqueeMark said:The tweet from the Tory last night suggested it had been damned hard work getting their vote out, or stopping it drifting over to UKIP. The management expectaton from Labour suggested the same. All candidates got into three figures, on a low turnout, suggesting there's no love left for the big two parties.
Not a surprise there. But there will be plenty of MPs uneasy about their job security this morning, if we are headed for an early election. Time to finally pass May's Shit Deal?0 -
How do you lose a quarter of your vote share in a seat you've held for 30 years when the government has been in power for nine years and looks like a refugee from a sketch by Monty Python?
Part of it may be Flynn's personal vote share unwinding. People who would have voted for him probably saw no reason to vote for Labour at this moment.
But it's still a poor result for Labour.
It's funny that Corbyn, who whatever his many faults is undoubtedly a superb campaigner and street pounder, simply can't get by-elections right. Copeland was of course the most disastrous but Stoke and now Newport are showing that Labour are simply no good at them.0 -
If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.edmundintokyo said:
8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty soundkyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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The central point for me is that both main parties lost vote share. The hoovering up that took place between them in 2017 unwound and then some. Now this may just be because it’s a by-election but it potentially makes the next election very difficult to predict indeed.0
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You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.0
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How often have I said that the next election will be decided by who loses the least number of votes? It's still very likely to be true.AlastairMeeks said:The central point for me is that both main parties lost vote share. The hoovering up that took place between them in 2017 unwound and then some. Now this may just be because it’s a by-election but it potentially makes the next election very difficult to predict indeed.
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So much for all these anecdotes that people are desperate for the chance to protest about not getting Brexit.
UKIP share only just over half what they got in 2015. Boosts for various anti-Brexit parties. Low turnout. No real enthusiasm for the larger parties but otherwise little to see here.
Another MP for the side of sanity in parliament, hopefully.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
I'm having trouble getting a stable connection to PB.
I blame Brexit, Corbyn and all these unicorns you see everywhere on the site.0 -
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
A ghost from the past Fitalaff back, CCHQ must really be scared.williamglenn said:FPT
It shows that even in a ‘Leave’ seat, the Labour vote can splinter towards pro-Remain parties.fitalass said:First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
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Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
I wonder if name recognition had anything to do with it - he's famous but can't remember why.kyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1113890811912032257ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
A no-deal Brexit could have "significant implications" on an EU-led military operation in Bosnia, European diplomats have warned.
The U.K. plays a key role in Operation Althea, the European Union's peacekeeping mission based in Sarajevo, but might have to withdraw abruptly from the deployment in case of a no-deal departure....
The U.K. currently provides "most of the capabilities" in terms of military force and intelligence, a third diplomat said.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-of-brexit-implications-on-peacekeeping-mission-in-bosnia/0 -
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
Seems like there was an overall move to Remain-backing parties in a constituency that voted Leave in 2016. It was a low turnout, so we can’t read too much into it - except that Remain-backers are pretty energised and Labour potentially has a very, very big problem.
It’s worth remembering that in most Leave constituencies most Remain voters were Labour voters. It doesn’t take many of those Remain voters to feel betrayed and to switch for Labour to be in all kinds of trouble.0 -
Does he work for the Student Loan Company? He can't even work out when it's April 1st.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1113890811912032257ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.Foxy said:
If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.edmundintokyo said:
8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty soundkyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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Which does of course presuppose Brexit is the key driver of their vote choice. For Labour, there is of course evidence to suggest it isn't, although that could change.SouthamObserver said:Seems like there was an overall move to Remain-backing parties in a constituency that voted Leave in 2016. It was a low turnout, so we can’t read too much into it - except that Remain-backers are pretty energised and Labour potentially has a very, very big problem.
It’s worth remembering that in most Leave constituencies most Remain voters were Labour voters. It doesn’t take many of those Remain voters to feel betrayed and to switch for Labour to be in all kinds of trouble.0 -
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
Probably right. It seems unsurprising that voters aren't keen on either major party. The difference though is that if Labour changed leader (to someone without the baggage) they would likely get an immediate boost. A change of leader for the Tories by contrast would have the opposite affectJonathan said:You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.
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People who aren't obsessed by Brexit have to vote for someone.ydoethur said:
Which does of course presuppose Brexit is the key driver of their vote choice. For Labour, there is of course evidence to suggest it isn't, although that could change.SouthamObserver said:Seems like there was an overall move to Remain-backing parties in a constituency that voted Leave in 2016. It was a low turnout, so we can’t read too much into it - except that Remain-backers are pretty energised and Labour potentially has a very, very big problem.
It’s worth remembering that in most Leave constituencies most Remain voters were Labour voters. It doesn’t take many of those Remain voters to feel betrayed and to switch for Labour to be in all kinds of trouble.
That over 6,000 voters turned out for UKIP in 2015 yet only 2,000 last night suggests the size of the angry army has been overestimated. Farage's tiny March and rally suggest the same.0 -
If you’re drawing comparisons, you might note that one chamber is actually elected...CarlottaVance said:
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Everyone's got a soft spot for cash in a plain brown envelopelogical_song said:
I wonder if name recognition had anything to do with it - he's famous but can't remember why.kyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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Do you guys not read UKpollingreport by Anthony Wells? After almost every by-election he writes almost the same thing...
"As usual, by-elections don’t tell us a huge amount about the bigger political picture, but are very important in setting the political narrative.
By-elections are very unusual beasts. Because they don’t decide who will form the government for the next five years, only who will be the local MP, people are comparatively free to use them to register a protest. They are much more fiercely contested than your average seat at a general election. The constituency itself will also normally have its own local ideosyncracities that mean it can’t just be read as if it is a microcosm of Britain as a whole. So when people ask me what by-elections tell us, I normally say not much: if the change in the vote is in line with what the national polls are showing then it tells us nothing we didn’t already know, if the change is different to the national polls it’s probably just because by-elections are very different to general elections."
This was after the Stoke and Copeland Byelections in 2015
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/98110 -
Slackers.malcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.
Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?
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Inner Grammar Nazi begins the Horst Wessel...malcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%0 -
Fair comment. I simply meant she is likely to add one to the numbers supporting Cooper/Letwin and a softer Brexit.ydoethur said:
Really? I thought she was joining Labour.IanB2 said:
Another MP for the side of sanity in parliament, hopefully.
(While I know what you meant, I don't think there is a sane side in Parliament right now.)0 -
An interesting canvassing technique. Must have run out of envelopes, I guess.Roger said:
Everyone's got a soft spot for cash in a plain brown envelopelogical_song said:
I wonder if name recognition had anything to do with it - he's famous but can't remember why.kyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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That Lab to Con swing is huge.
Utter vindication for Mrs May and her strategy on Brexit.0 -
That apostrophe was positively butchered.ydoethur said:
Inner Grammar Nazi begins the Horst Wessel...malcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.
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It could be the early hour and my tea not having penetrated yet possibly, though more likely that I was busy laughing as my wife was looking at Rate my Haircut and it was a hoot. I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you, if I was being pedantic, given they tend to all close at different times etc up here just to confuse people.Nigelb said:
Slackers.malcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.
Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?0 -
Given the TV coverage, the parties are lucky anyone turns out for a foregone conclusion.Roger said:
Probably right. It seems unsurprising that voters aren't keen on either major party. The difference though is that if Labour changed leader (to someone without the baggage) they would likely get an immediate boost. A change of leader for the Tories by contrast would have the opposite affectJonathan said:You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.
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In that case it should be 'school has.'malcolmg said:
I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you.Nigelb said:
Slackers.malcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.
Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?0 -
No sign that May has learnt anything , pig headed till the end.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17552156.sturgeon-no-sign-of-may-compromising-on-brexit-deal/0 -
Bah Humbug, ok it was laziness and not checking what I posted.ydoethur said:
In that case it should be 'school has.'malcolmg said:
I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you.Nigelb said:
Slackers.malcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.
Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?0 -
TBF any swing in that direction is pretty impressive. There may be a level of sympathy there for T. May which would disappear among some of the other contenders for her job. The mistakes she has made have been manifold but her basic position right now is soundTheScreamingEagles said:That Lab to Con swing is huge.
Utter vindication for Mrs May and her strategy on Brexit.0 -
Yes. The almost inexplicable parity of the two main parties arises almost entirely from the personalities of both leaders. In particular the Tories underestimate sympathy support for Mrs May, among those not paying much attention, at their peril.Roger said:
Probably right. It seems unsurprising that voters aren't keen on either major party. The difference though is that if Labour changed leader (to someone without the baggage) they would likely get an immediate boost. A change of leader for the Tories by contrast would have the opposite affectJonathan said:You can’t read anything into a safe seat by-election that we don’t already know. Turnout warps everything.
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Your penance is to watch The Last Jedi three times.malcolmg said:
Bah Humbug, ok it was laziness and not checking what I posted.ydoethur said:
In that case it should be 'school has.'malcolmg said:
I could also say I was only speaking about one particular school mind you.Nigelb said:
Slackers.malcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.
Might that explain your misused apostrophe ?
And on that sentence, I have a last day to get to. Have a good day, everyone!0 -
If the BBC is right his reply will be that we can have up to a year, with a flexible early redemption option if we get an agreement earlier.williamglenn said:0 -
Strong and Stable government, not a Coalition of Chaos!TheScreamingEagles said:That Lab to Con swing is huge.
Utter vindication for Mrs May and her strategy on Brexit.
12 month flextension, probably good but is a terribble neoligism.0 -
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Not in Edinburghmalcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
He really doesn't understand the concept of the slippery slope, does he?Scott_P said:0 -
Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea
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The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
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Overall, a swing to pro Remain parties exceeding UKIP and assorted neo nazis.tlg86 said:
Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.Foxy said:
If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.edmundintokyo said:
8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty soundkyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
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Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea0 -
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea0 -
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.0 -
Yes, the EU27 are much better at this than us. No Deal would have to be a conscious decision.IanB2 said:
If the BBC is right his reply will be that we can have up to a year, with a flexible early redemption option if we get an agreement earlier.williamglenn said:
12 months with Euro elections, and new party leaders, October GE.0 -
No we are not.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea0 -
It’s a cunning plan...ydoethur said:How do you lose a quarter of your vote share in a seat you've held for 30 years when the government has been in power for nine years and looks like a refugee from a sketch by Monty Python?
Part of it may be Flynn's personal vote share unwinding. People who would have voted for him probably saw no reason to vote for Labour at this moment.
But it's still a poor result for Labour.
It's funny that Corbyn, who whatever his many faults is undoubtedly a superb campaigner and street pounder, simply can't get by-elections right. Copeland was of course the most disastrous but Stoke and now Newport are showing that Labour are simply no good at them.0 -
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.0 -
And the more likely we get a better deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.0 -
Amazing that holidays etc are so fragmented in Scotland. Though I do like to take both English and local bank holidays, gets a few extra days.Alistair said:
Not in Edinburghmalcolmg said:
School's have been out for a week in Scotlandydoethur said:
Today's the last day.OldKingCole said:
Demob happy again? Do you finish for Easter this weekend or next?ydoethur said:
It set a new record for leaking to the press corps.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. B2, after yesterday, there's never been a clearer indication of which MPs really are wet.0 -
For god's sake don't trigger Philip.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea0 -
Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?Philip_Thompson said:
No we are not.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea0 -
Breaking: BBC confirms PM will write to Brussels mid-morning to ask for extension0
-
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.Philip_Thompson said:
And the more likely we get a better deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe0 -
Yes international rules and obligations.kamski said:
Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?Philip_Thompson said:
No we are not.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea
In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.0 -
Keep kicking that can, you would almost think that there has been a real plan for the last 3 years after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.0 -
A twelve month extension means we vote in the EURO elections. I'm not sure what will change in that time, except for more uncertainty for business and more politicking. Without a strict deadline, nothing will ever be decided - that's the way bureaucrats work. Why pander to them?
Is 37% a low turnout for a by-election?
Is UKIP back in operation? I suspect it needs a definitive 'No' to Brexit before it will make much progress. With this Schrodinger version, it's still all up in the air, although delay can only help Brexit-fatigue.0 -
If we can’t achieve your preferred Brexit because of Northern Ireland, perhaps you’re looking at the wrong union.Philip_Thompson said:
No we are not.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea0 -
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.Philip_Thompson said:
And the more likely we get a better deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.0 -
Can you rephrase this, I don't understand what you meanPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes international rules and obligations.kamski said:
Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?Philip_Thompson said:
No we are not.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea
In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.0 -
I was formerly in the constituency of his father and at university with his son. Neither of them are that bright, but it was always clear he was going for a career in Tory politics.Foxy said:0 -
Breaking .........LOL, state propaganda mouthpiece gives out government propaganda, soften them up with Tusk message and then say St Theresa is writing to ask for exactly what he offered, how convenient. The sheeple will all be happy and return to grazing.IanB2 said:Breaking: BBC confirms PM will write to Brussels mid-morning to ask for extension
0 -
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.Philip_Thompson said:
And the more likely we get a better deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.0 -
We can't achieve my preferred Brexit at the minute because Northern Ireland is being abused, not because it exists.williamglenn said:
If we can’t achieve your preferred Brexit because of Northern Ireland, perhaps you’re looking at the wrong union.Philip_Thompson said:
No we are not.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea
While I'd prefer we were rid of Northern Ireland I only want them to leave if that is their choice, which they've not made. If the Republic and the EU won't come up with an equitable free trade deal without a backstop then we should leave anyway and have a border within Ireland. Its entirely manageable as Varadkar has already made clear.0 -
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.Philip_Thompson said:
And the more likely we get a better deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.0 -
Once the extension is in place it isn't obvious why those MPs happy with a delay would vote to resolve the deal impasse in the options exercise on Monday.
Edit/ This surely makes a PV more likely, as a way to cement the extension?0 -
Words fail mePhilip_Thompson said:
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.Philip_Thompson said:
And the more likely we get a better deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National Position 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.0 -
WTO rules are international affecting everyone. For instance the concept of MFN.kamski said:
Can you rephrase this, I don't understand what you meanPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes international rules and obligations.kamski said:
Don't WTO rules mean the UK has to follow international rules and obligations?Philip_Thompson said:
No we are not.kamski said:
Yup, in exactly the same way as we are a free country in the EU, or in the single market, or in the customs union...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes we are a free country under WTO rules.kamski said:Jenkin on R4 just now: "leaving the EU means GB becoming a free country, with this deal we do not become a free country, therefore this deal is not leaving the EU"
five seconds later :
"I am in favour of leaving under WTO rules"
sorry, but if we have to follow WTO rules we are not a free country.
I guess under his definition the only "free country" in the world is North Korea
In the EU and Customs Union are national rules and obligations are set internationally.
EU/Customs Union rules are national affecting the nations it applies to.
Under the WTO we would be a free nation setting our own national laws within the established international order.
In the EU/CU some of our national rules will be set by the EU. In the latter case without us even getting a say.0 -
The Lib Dems: losing deposits one by-election at a time.Foxy said:
Overall, a swing to pro Remain parties exceeding UKIP and assorted neo nazis.tlg86 said:
Ditto the Lib Dem’s, Renew, Greens, etc.Foxy said:
If UKIP cannot reach 10% on a much reduced turnout during the current fiasco, then they are toast. Nothing to fear here.edmundintokyo said:
8.6% isn't an alarm klaxon, it's a little farty soundkyf_100 said:As a moderate leaver I say this without any joy, but the rise in the UKIP share of the vote - with Neil Hamilton of all people - must surely be an alarm klaxon in the shape of things to come if we end up remaining.
0 -
Laissez-faire is the basis of classical liberalism which is what I believe in, what Thatcher fought for, the economics of Friedman. Laissez-faire works.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail mePhilip_Thompson said:
Its what draws me to the Conservative Party.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your laissez faire attitude to business is frankly shocking.Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't care less if that was the case and I don't believe that anyway. Besides since she is going before next General Election anyway [thankfully] that is entirely moot, why cling on to a moribund failed leader?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do realise that TM is the reason the party vote is holding up.Philip_Thompson said:
And the more likely we get a better deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The longer the delay the more likely we remainPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree with him. Long extension, hold EU elections, defenestrate May, sack Fox [and Grayling*], prepare properly for No Deal in 12 months time, renegotiate deal without a backstop if EU take us seriously, leave with No Deal in 12 months if they don't.nunuone said:
The swing should worry Labour all the more.Pulpstar said:Newport West is a remarkably average seat:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport West
Newport West/Wales/GB
Economic Position 5° Left 9° Left 0°
National PositLaiion 1° Nat 0° 0°
EU Leave % 53% 52% 52%
British Identity 31% 26% 29%
Good Health 46% 47% 48%
UK Born 92% 95% 88%
Good Education 38% 36% 39%
Good Job 52% 46% 51%
High SEC 50% 46% 51%
Average Age 48.9 49.6 48.5
ABC1 Class 52% 47% 53%
* Not Brexit related but JFDI.
It depends who replaces May. If we get a long extension May should acknowledge she's failed and go.
The danger in a longer delay is business has more time to plan moving to Europe
Business has had 3 years to plan moving to Europe if it wanted to.0
