politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-
Comments
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They have no choice or else it becomes mainland FranceTGOHF said:
Merkel doesn't want a border - but is the one threatening to build one.Big_G_NorthWales said:Varadkar - Merkel press conference is painful to watch as they stonewall the border which would come in on the 13th April. Varadkar had no answer whatsoever
Merkel is the key here with her 'where there is a will there is a way'0 -
There are a range of results the 51 49 is just removing DKs from the 44 42 result which asks about no deal by Apr 12 and no further extension .brokenwheel said:
I have you idiot, asking what result people would have preferred is a different question to what option they will support.nico67 said:
Go read the full poll on YouGov . And refrain in future from making pathetic accusations .brokenwheel said:
What a surprise, a remainer who is also a compulsive liar.nico67 said:The YouGov poll which seems to have caused some excitement is not as reported . Those figures are for if the EU refuses an extension .
Only 26 percent want a no deal .
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113823082123337733
You really need to calm down and aren’t doing yourself any favours by your abusive attitude . Try an anger management course , it might help !0 -
Your 1st reason I mainly agree with but I don't agree with it 100%. If No Deal really did kill off a false and toxic notion of what this country is all about, then I can see a case for saying that it is worth suffering some damage for a period of time, provided the suffering is of the 1st world sort.AlastairMeeks said:No. No, in fact for two reasons.
First, No Deal Brexit is not worth harming anyone. Even if the damage could be confined to hardcore Leavers (which it couldn't), I would not wish them any harm.
Secondly, the fantasists will decide either that the harm did not happen or that the harm was unrelated to Brexit or that the harm was caused by the hamfisted implementation of No Deal Brexit. They would never accept that No Deal was innately flawed.
Death cultists seek only greater perfection for their mortal desire.
However, I totally agree with your 2nd point. True believers must find a way to still believe and so they would. Meaning the pain would not produce the gain.0 -
It is sometimes good to give extreme rightwingers and their ideas a platform to show how ridiculous and stupid they are. Jacob Rees Mogg is a case in point, Brexit as a concept is another. It's going to be great. Easiest deal in history. Take back control. Just amazes me that anyone who can write/type on a computer keyboard can still think it is a good idea.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Great, Tommy it is then. We don't want the odious tosser here, we can send him to Brussels, with a nice trip to Strasbourg once a month.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think Nigel Farage will be standing again. Alternatively there will be Tommy Robinson, both of the same cloth.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Good, I'm voting for the craziest twat I can find on the ballot paper.Ishmael_Z said:
Carnage here but why is that their problem? If your point is that they will end up with a lot of rebarbative nutters as UK meps they are used to that.twistedfirestopper3 said:The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.
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Off-topic:
For anyone interested, the interim report about the Ethiopian Airlines 737 Max crash has been released:
http://www.ecaa.gov.et/documents/20435/0/Preliminary+Report+B737-800MAX+,(ET-AVJ).pdf/0 -
Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow0
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Well they would say thatBig_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
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Are we sure he doesn't have a servant to work the computer for him?Nigel_Foremain said:
It is sometimes good to give extreme rightwingers and their ideas a platform to show how ridiculous and stupid they are. Jacob Rees Mogg is a case in point, Brexit as a concept is another. It's going to be great. Easiest deal in history. Take back control. Just amazes me that anyone who can write/type on a computer keyboard can still think it is a good idea.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Great, Tommy it is then. We don't want the odious tosser here, we can send him to Brussels, with a nice trip to Strasbourg once a month.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think Nigel Farage will be standing again. Alternatively there will be Tommy Robinson, both of the same cloth.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Good, I'm voting for the craziest twat I can find on the ballot paper.Ishmael_Z said:
Carnage here but why is that their problem? If your point is that they will end up with a lot of rebarbative nutters as UK meps they are used to that.twistedfirestopper3 said:The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.
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It's not me typing, I have a cart load of monkeys knocking this out.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is sometimes good to give extreme rightwingers and their ideas a platform to show how ridiculous and stupid they are. Jacob Rees Mogg is a case in point, Brexit as a concept is another. It's going to be great. Easiest deal in history. Take back control. Just amazes me that anyone who can write/type on a computer keyboard can still think it is a good idea.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Great, Tommy it is then. We don't want the odious tosser here, we can send him to Brussels, with a nice trip to Strasbourg once a month.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think Nigel Farage will be standing again. Alternatively there will be Tommy Robinson, both of the same cloth.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Good, I'm voting for the craziest twat I can find on the ballot paper.Ishmael_Z said:
Carnage here but why is that their problem? If your point is that they will end up with a lot of rebarbative nutters as UK meps they are used to that.twistedfirestopper3 said:The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.
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More here if it's of any help:MikeSmithson said:
Am hearing that the "Renew" party has been spending a fair bit in Newport? What to make of it I don't know but just had a wild bet of £3.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/31/newport-west-byelection-voters-look-away-from-main-parties-for-renewal
I can't imagine they would do more than take a few votes off Labour. Might be relevant if he result is close.
But really, who knows where we are or what will happen?0 -
I don't think they are terrified. I think they are still driven by political considerations of what is easier, and kicking the can is usually easier.Black_Rook said:
An awful lot seems to be predicated on this notion that the EU will continue to indulge the UK forever, because it is terrified of No Deal. I'm not sure that this is entirely true.kle4 said:
It does, but while they are more prepared than us they don't seem to want no deal either, so so long as May and Corbyn keep a straight face the EU leaders might well pretend to believe them.Black_Rook said:
I've been at work where I don't have a lot of spare time to pore over the latest news, but I did hear some ridiculous suggestion to the effect that Theresa May will go to Brussels and ask the other leaders for an extension simply to keep on fruitlessly talking to Corbyn. What follows then depends on the response of the EU27.kinabalu said:
I have little hope for a joint May/Corbyn position. I just cannot see it.kle4 said:I wish I could believe that. Absent her giving in on customs union and him not demanding a referendum I don’t see how that happens, and Corbyn doesn’t have the party backing for that I suspect.
I fear it is just a sign may was not serious after all and is once again stringing things out.
In fact, my personal mood (for want of a better word) on Brexit is changing. Up to the last couple of days I have seen all of this as a boon. A fascinating puzzle to be grappled with, a great betting opportunity, a compelling drama to be followed, but with the cosy underlying assumption that, ultimately, and no doubt at the very last gasp, we would ratify the Withdrawal Agreement, leave into transition, and then proceed to negotiate a pragmatic trade deal over the next few years.
Not so sure of that now. Things are starting to look quite bleak and it is not clear where a non-traumatic resolution of this crisis is going to come from. So all of a sudden I'm not enjoying it so much. I've gone a bit Yvette Cooper. I'm worried.
Of course, in the unlikely event that they buy this rubbish, they're bound to insist on a lengthy extension this time. They need to settle the issue of the European Parliament elections: if they allow a situation to develop in which we do not participate yet retain a right to Revoke, then if Revocation did subsequently occur it would muck up the EU's entire political/legal order.0 -
Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.TGOHF said:
Well they would say thatBig_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case0 -
They can always install a special padded chamber for the British MEPs.TGOHF said:
I'm amazed that Cons haven't ruled out fielding candidates whether the elections happen or not - absolutely no upside to participation.twistedfirestopper3 said:The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.
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Eh?logical_song said:
Uruguayisam said:
His mum had one in the oven... in Fray Bentos!Charles said:
In a pie?isam said:
Birthplace of Arsenal’s Lucas Torreira I believeCharles said:
‘Things’ being the right term...FrancisUrquhart said:
Do those things still exist?Charles said:
Because Fray Bentos exist?kinabalu said:
Fair cop. I was thinking of the other ones. The reprehensible Bigham has a finger in quite a few and that problem I describe always manifests.Benpointer said:Point of order: There's no pastry on a shepherd's pie.
There is an obvious and brutal next question, a killer really, so I will pose it myself in order to limit the damage.
If I hate 'CB' pies so much how come I keep buying them?
I believe so0 -
Depends on what they come up with. Some stupid customs union idea would be bad.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.TGOHF said:
Well they would say thatBig_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case0 -
Should be an easy discussion , they have few options, an hour to lay them out and then see who is going to fold.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
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Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.0 -
Anything that results in the end to this chaos would be excellentTGOHF said:
Depends on what they come up with. Some stupid customs union idea would be bad.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.TGOHF said:
Well they would say thatBig_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case0 -
Except isn't Kier Starmer incredibly keen on a referendum? What options could he be sketching out?IanB2 said:
Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.0 -
For pure comedy value they should come out with the May deal, unaltered, with a cheeky wink to camera.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Anything that results in the end to this chaos would be excellentTGOHF said:
Depends on what they come up with. Some stupid customs union idea would be bad.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.TGOHF said:
Well they would say thatBig_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case0 -
Does the House of Commons have a need for a quorum?IanB2 said:
Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
If not, perhaps the solution is to send everyone away except for the tellers, the Speaker and Ken Clarke, and he can just vote through whatever - Deal or Revoke - and we all accept it.0 -
Politically undead.williamglenn said:
May has managed to make herself simultaneously politically dead and very hard to remove. That gives her a lot of scope to survive the unsurvivable.anothernick said:
It will be terminal for Theresa May. But that seems to be where we're headed. By this time next week we will probably have a long extension, imminent EU elections and a vacancy for the position of Tory leader.Richard_Nabavi said:
The EU27 won't budge on the European elections issue, though, which would mean that unless the WA is going to get ratified in the next few days, the only way to avoid a crash-out is a long extension and holding the European elections. That in turn would be extremely difficult for Theresa May.kle4 said:It does, but while they are more prepared than us they don't seem to want no deal either, so so long as May and Corbyn keep a straight face the EU leaders might well pretend to believe them.
Like the Liberal Democrat peers in the Lords.0 -
The one thing TM has done has exposed Corbyn's own difficulties and at a stroke prevented him sitting back and waiting for it to go pear shapedIanB2 said:
Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.0 -
I feel like this some kind of code I am not able to penetrate, or the opening gambit in some kind of word association game.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Again, the gift of hindsight prevalent here but let's look at these:Endillion said:I mean, I'm not a LibDem, but it seems pretty simple to me (and did at the time):
- Not gone for the AV referendum (once the Tories ruled out any form of electoral reform you wanted, you should have just taken it off the table)
- Not agreed to vote for increasing tuition fees, as the quid pro quo for giving ground on electoral reform (above)
- Not reneged on the promise to vote through the boundary changes (admittedly this wasn't in 2010), which would have netted you HoL reform
- Been more proactive in claiming policy wins - the only thing I did feel sorry for you on was Osborne's gleeful theft of the "lifting the low paid out of income tax" agenda, which was good policy, but certainly wasn't his idea.
1) AV or STV? AV has never been LD policy, indeed it's worse than FPTP in some circumstances but Clegg knew he couldn't get the Conservatives to agree to STV at Westminster but he had to offer the party something. I think STV at local elections might have been sellable to Cameron but they weren't going to budge on FPTP at Westminster for obvious reasons.
2) We're talking about the Government formation. In terms of the fees, I don't recall scrapping tuition fees being actual LD policy but too many candidates signed up to an NUS pledge in order to garner student votes. The politics of that was amateurish and disastrous.
3) Maybe, maybe not. I'm not convinced that had a huge impact.
4) Again maybe, maybe not. As I've said before, in coalition you get some of what you want but you also have to accept some of what you don't want because the other side want it. Conservatives voted for LD measures and if you re-read the papers from 2012-13 the whole thrust is that Cameron was basically leading an LD Government.
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Didn’t someone once say that law-making was like making sausages: you might like to result but you shouldn’t watch the process too closelyydoethur said:
Does the House of Commons have a need for a quorum?IanB2 said:
Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
If not, perhaps the solution is to send everyone away except for the tellers, the Speaker and Ken Clarke, and he can just vote through whatever - Deal or Revoke - and we all accept it.0 -
A part of me hopes that the EU does exactly that. Calls time on this. MPs will then have to pass the WA or make an active positive choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Earn their corn. The WA must have a chance, in that truly desperate situation, but if not I predict that they will opt for the deep blue sea. Perhaps you feel the devil will sneak it. But whatever, my god, what a terribly tense vote that will be. I would find it hard to watch.Black_Rook said:No. If we can't come up with any sort of plan then I think they *have* to give up and send May packing. Otherwise, the faffing could continue forever, and they don't want that either. That would presumably lead to a Revoke versus No Deal vote in the Commons on the 11th.
I know that MPs don't want to be forced to make such an onerous decision, but if they can't agree on anything else than eventually they're going to have to do it.0 -
If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .
As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.
From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .
The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .0 -
Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?
Do we know more?0 -
Yes, inclined to agree with that.nico67 said:If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .
As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.
From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .
The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .0 -
I advise you not to google itkle4 said:
I feel like this some kind of code I am not able to penetrate, or the opening gambit in some kind of word association game.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Bismarck I thinkCharles said:
Didn’t someone once say that law-making was like making sausages: you might like to result but you shouldn’t watch the process too closelyydoethur said:
Does the House of Commons have a need for a quorum?IanB2 said:
Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
If not, perhaps the solution is to send everyone away except for the tellers, the Speaker and Ken Clarke, and he can just vote through whatever - Deal or Revoke - and we all accept it.0 -
I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room.GIN1138 said:Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?
Do we know more?
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What an odd headline
Brexit: DUP accuses government of U-turn
The DUP has accused the government of preparing for a Brexit U-turn after the chancellor suggested another referendum would be a "credible proposition".
The DUP has also insisted that it does not support the UK joining a customs union with the EU
It's not really an accusation - they are u-turning, though how far is not clear at this time. Why exactly do the DUP think the government cannot try to find votes elsewhere if they won't provide the votes? They are, they say, principled, surely they accept others' principles mean they need to find a compromise?0 -
Only one by-election today - should be a safe Con defence in Wroxham (Norfolk CC).0
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In your metaphor which is the devil and which the deep blue sea?kinabalu said:
A part of me hopes that the EU does exactly that. Calls time on this. MPs will then have to pass the WA or make an active positive choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Earn their corn. The WA must have a chance, in that truly desperate situation, but if not I predict that they will opt for the deep blue sea. Perhaps you feel the devil will sneak it. But whatever, my god, what a terribly tense vote that will be. I would find it hard to watch.Black_Rook said:No. If we can't come up with any sort of plan then I think they *have* to give up and send May packing. Otherwise, the faffing could continue forever, and they don't want that either. That would presumably lead to a Revoke versus No Deal vote in the Commons on the 11th.
I know that MPs don't want to be forced to make such an onerous decision, but if they can't agree on anything else than eventually they're going to have to do it.0 -
62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.0 -
I know what the words mean. I just don't know why they're combined with ERG! And I do not want to know, in fairness.Charles said:
I advise you not to google itkle4 said:
I feel like this some kind of code I am not able to penetrate, or the opening gambit in some kind of word association game.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Thanks . I think politicians have added to the problems by some of their irresponsible rhetoric. They have done nothing to unite the country . A deal is the only way forward .Benpointer said:
Yes, inclined to agree with that.nico67 said:If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .
As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.
From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .
The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .0 -
With right-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a cold Singapore and some left-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a wet Venezuela, I hope they can find a way to make PD changes agreed now binding. One of the best justifications of a confirmatory referendum and an early general election.nico67 said:If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .
As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.
From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .
The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .0 -
Nothing. Same as always.GIN1138 said:Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?
Do we know more?0 -
What time do their Lordship's finish?IanB2 said:62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? 0 -
Some days they have to earn that £300 a day. Well, the 40% or so who are there.GIN1138 said:
What time do their Lordship's finish?IanB2 said:62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely?0 -
Leaving without a deal isn’t a good outcome but it a question of whether voters prefer the alternative.nico67 said:The same poll being lauded by Leavers also shows the following
No deal bad outcome 50%
Good outcome 25%
Compromise 13%
Q
Perhaps - but I expect a few leavers are IT literate enough to avoid posting ridiculously long links.Nigel_Foremain said:
As your posts ably demonstrate not all remain supporters are intelligent and informed and not all leave voters are dumb and ill informed. But the overwhelming majority of both are perfectly decent respectful people who simply disagree about whether we leave a political institution.
My father voted remain and my mother leave - as was their choice based on their experience of life. And they didn’t make those different choices because of their opinions on the straightness of fruit.
Perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and stop being so narrow minded and judgemental!0 -
Nothing about it on any of the sites and feeds I follow.Benpointer said:
I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room.GIN1138 said:Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?
Do we know more?0 -
I think they are expecting to go beyond midnight. Unless the Brexiter Lords expire before then.GIN1138 said:
What time do their Lordship's finish?IanB2 said:62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely?0 -
James Cleverly to replace Chris Heaton-Harris as Brexit Minister.0
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I think I've just seen Long-Bailey on Labour's Brexit team. Is that wise when so few people seem to be taking their participation seriously anyway?0
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The role might be abolished before the end of next week!ralphmalph said:James Cleverly to replace Chris Heaton-Harris as Brexit Minister.
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The Shadow leader said they will go through the night into breakfast but who knowsIanB2 said:
I think they are expecting to go beyond midnight. Unless the Brexiter Lords expire before then.GIN1138 said:
What time do their Lordship's finish?IanB2 said:62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely?0 -
Best to get 'former minister' on the CV quick then!SandyRentool said:
The role might be abolished before the end of next week!ralphmalph said:James Cleverly to replace Chris Heaton-Harris as Brexit Minister.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/04/brexit-latest-news-philip-hammond-says-second-referendum-perfectly/IanB2 said:
Nothing about it on any of the sites and feeds I follow.Benpointer said:
I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room.GIN1138 said:Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?
Do we know more?0 -
Looks like a cross-party agreement to do the second parts of considering the Bill in the Lords on Monday, rather than attempt it all today. In return for cutting the filibustering and pointless amendments.0
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Telegraph says: Cabinet ministers are holding an emergency meeting with Theresa May now in Number 10 in the wake of discussions with LabourBenpointer said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/04/brexit-latest-news-philip-hammond-says-second-referendum-perfectly/IanB2 said:
Nothing about it on any of the sites and feeds I follow.Benpointer said:
I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room.GIN1138 said:Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?
Do we know more?
... which is not quite the same thing and might be more significant.0 -
Now 122 Unopposed/Guaranteed Conservative candidates, 8 Lib Dem, 4 Labour.
My impression is that there are more independent and Green candidates than usual , and more UKIP than I expected (but many fewer than 2015).0 -
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There may be some more localised flooding in that case.GIN1138 said:
What time do their Lordship's finish?IanB2 said:62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely?0 -
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:0 -
I am not sure it makes much difference precisely how long she asks will be down to the EU to offer.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
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Well said.brendan16 said:
Leaving without a deal isn’t a good outcome but it a question of whether voters prefer the alternative.nico67 said:The same poll being lauded by Leavers also shows the following
No deal bad outcome 50%
Good outcome 25%
Compromise 13%
Q
Perhaps - but I expect a few leavers are IT literate enough to avoid posting ridiculously long links.Nigel_Foremain said:
As your posts ably demonstrate not all remain supporters are intelligent and informed and not all leave voters are dumb and ill informed. But the overwhelming majority of both are perfectly decent respectful people who simply disagree about whether we leave a political institution.
My father voted remain and my mother leave - as was their choice based on their experience of life. And they didn’t make those different choices because of their opinions on the straightness of fruit.
Perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and stop being so narrow minded and judgemental!
I think it is incumbent on everyone to be a little more respectful of other people on this divisive issue - and to recognise that though we may disagree fundamentally with others’ views, they are as well-meaning in their motivations as we are.
I have recently deliberately included a number of work colleagues and bosses in my social media groups. I find it a useful test, to consider if I would say something to my boss* in the same way as I am proposing to say it to someone else. If I wouldn’t, I don’t post it.
*other people are also available as tests, including your mum, spouse or the queen.
0 -
It has been said that the House of Lords isn't worth a bucket of warm piss. We might be about to test that hypothesis...Theuniondivvie said:
There may be some more localised flooding in that case.GIN1138 said:
What time do their Lordship's finish?IanB2 said:62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely?
0 -
Here in Dorset 30 Greens and 30 UKIP candidates for 82 seats.Sean_F said:Now 122 Unopposed/Guaranteed Conservative candidates, 8 Lib Dem, 4 Labour.
My impression is that there are more independent and Green candidates than unusual , and more UKIP than I expected (but many fewer than 2015).
More UKIP than I expected and they will no doubt mop up any discontented No Dealers (unless we have exited with no deal by then of course, which could scupper their vote somewhat).0 -
And hasn't a confirmatory referendum been on each of the indicative votes so far anyway already? And rejected each time?kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:0 -
Tory Leaver Lords trying to get the House to drop the SO suspension motion in return for promise of good behaviour. Doesn't look like the rest of the house is going to fall for it.0
-
Commons intends to keep sitting on Monday until it receives the Bill back from the Lords (targeted for 8 pm)0
-
In terms of the order of preference of what I'd like to see Parliament vote through, at the moment I'd rank them as follows:kinabalu said:
A part of me hopes that the EU does exactly that. Calls time on this. MPs will then have to pass the WA or make an active positive choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Earn their corn. The WA must have a chance, in that truly desperate situation, but if not I predict that they will opt for the deep blue sea. Perhaps you feel the devil will sneak it. But whatever, my god, what a terribly tense vote that will be. I would find it hard to watch.Black_Rook said:No. If we can't come up with any sort of plan then I think they *have* to give up and send May packing. Otherwise, the faffing could continue forever, and they don't want that either. That would presumably lead to a Revoke versus No Deal vote in the Commons on the 11th.
I know that MPs don't want to be forced to make such an onerous decision, but if they can't agree on anything else than eventually they're going to have to do it.
1. Deal
2. Deal plus Referendum
3. No Deal or Revoke (can see significant benefits and drawbacks to each relative to the other; I'm genuinely not sure which is worse)
4. Any form of softer Brexit (we'd be better off Remaining on current terms)
Though there is also part of me that would relish MPs being forced to choose between No Deal and Revoke, and then suffer the political consequences of either decision. It would be payback for the original sin of pretty well all the political parties (except the SNP): that they voted en bloc to pass the EU Referendum Act, when anywhere between the majority and 100% of their MPs thought leaving the EU to be a national disaster and they didn't want to make it happen. Consequently, I have no sympathy whatsoever for the predicament in which they now find themselves.0 -
Lords Business Motion agreed without a division. Looks like the Leavers have given up the delaying tactics in return for a fuller debate on Monday
Adjournment for 20 mins to draw up a second reading speakers list.0 -
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
0 -
TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time. 0 -
Leaves the initiative with the Commons to see if it can find a way forward before the Cooper Bill comes back from the Lords. Also allows the May/Corbyn talks to proceed without May having to ask for an extension quite yet.0
-
It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.0 -
If they hadn't spent all day farting about with delaying tactics they'd have had plenty of time for fuller debate!IanB2 said:Lords Business Motion agreed without a division. Looks like the Leavers have given up the delaying tactics in return for a fuller debate on Monday
Adjournment for 20 mins to draw up a second reading speakers list.0 -
Wishful thinking in spadesPhilip_Thompson said:
TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.0 -
Indeed. As I edited in below, it does however delay putting the extension gun to May's head until after the Leaders' talks and Monday's Commons session have taken place.Benpointer said:
If they hadn't spent all day farting about with delaying tactics they'd have had plenty of time for fuller debate!IanB2 said:Lords Business Motion agreed without a division. Looks like the Leavers have given up the delaying tactics in return for a fuller debate on Monday
Adjournment for 20 mins to draw up a second reading speakers list.0 -
But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.Jonathan said:
It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.
0 -
Yebbut, it’s nice when it’s warm and sunny here, isn’t it?Jonathan said:
With right-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a cold Singapore and some left-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a wet Venezuela, I hope they can find a way to make PD changes agreed now binding. One of the best justifications of a confirmatory referendum and an early general election.nico67 said:If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .
As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.
From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .
The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .0 -
Am I the only one nostalgic for the time when the Brexit pendulum swung from one extreme (No Deal) to the other (Revoke) over the course of every fortnight or so?
Now it seems to swing back and forth several times a day.
Will it be switching every minute before this ends?0 -
That’s what today’s “detailed and technical discussions” were about I guess. How to give assurance that it can’t be binned like that. Hence leak which was denied about devolution lock on exiting a CU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Wishful thinking in spadesPhilip_Thompson said:
TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
0 -
I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?0
-
The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.RobinWiggs said:
But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.Jonathan said:
It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.0 -
There’s not much danger to May putting a second vote as part of the options as it won’t get through anyway .
That gives Labour the chance to say we tried and it didn’t get through . A customs union won’t get through and shouldn’t as its a daft idea .
Being in the EU and CU is fine , it’s pointless being outside and in a CU . A partial CU might be a better idea on certain sectors , in which case it can be called just a customs arrangement.
Not sure why Remainers should be getting behind a CU , I’m one and it’s not a good outcome .
The best option was in the single market and out of the CU but because of this obsession to stop freedom of movement that’s got no chance .0 -
You missed a bit.Philip_Thompson said:
TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.0 -
May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.Jonathan said:
The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.RobinWiggs said:
But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.Jonathan said:
It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.
Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.
That’s what the principals really want, but Corbyn keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.
It could work.
0 -
If they fail to win it at this moment, it's time for Labour to pack up and go home.BADGEMAN said:I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?
And welcome.0 -
In last year's local elections Tory and Labour were almost neck and neck across the seat.BADGEMAN said:I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?
0 -
They can both whip the PV. Corbyn already has. May can too, and I suspect she will if it's the price she has to pay for her deal.RobinWiggs said:
May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.Jonathan said:
The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.RobinWiggs said:
But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.Jonathan said:
It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.
Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.
That’s what the principals really want, but Corbin keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.
It could work.0 -
No idea, I'm afraid, but welcome aboard!BADGEMAN said:I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?
0 -
You'd probably have to have a new government following a general election before CU could be scrapped.Philip_Thompson said:
TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.0 -
No. That’s a trap and a compromise way too far. She couldn’t and wouldn’t. If Labour insist that, it demonstrates they went into this in bad faith. They will own the blame for failure.Jonathan said:
They can both whip the PV. Corbyn already has. May can too, and I suspect she will if it's the price she has to pay for her deal.RobinWiggs said:
May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.Jonathan said:
The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.RobinWiggs said:
But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.Jonathan said:
It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.
Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.
That’s what the principals really want, but Corbin keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.
It could work.0 -
Off topic: What's really going on with Crossrail? Lots in the news today. Seems a bit mad. Surprised they don't try to open some of it.Casino_Royale said:
Yebbut, it’s nice when it’s warm and sunny here, isn’t it?Jonathan said:
With right-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a cold Singapore and some left-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a wet Venezuela, I hope they can find a way to make PD changes agreed now binding. One of the best justifications of a confirmatory referendum and an early general election.nico67 said:If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .
As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.
From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .
The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .0 -
‘
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum’
How permanent of course is a ‘permanent’ customs union.
What does in mean in practice - what if talks break down post departure and we revert to the backstop anyway. Will Tories accept the CU and Labour MPs accept ending freedom of movement - and how will people’s vote supporters react to being informed of the latter.
What happens if a future parliament wants to leave the ‘a’ customs union for a looser or different arrangement.
In other words could a parliament desperate to see this all sorted agree something which simply falls apart later - either in this parliament or a future one - when we see the details.
Surely nothing is for ever?
0 -
The Chancellor says it's ok. Of course it's possible.RobinWiggs said:
No. That’s a trap and a compromise way too far. She couldn’t and wouldn’t. If Labour insist that, it demonstrates they went into this in bad faith. They will own the blame for failure.Jonathan said:
They can both whip the PV. Corbyn already has. May can too, and I suspect she will if it's the price she has to pay for her deal.RobinWiggs said:
May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.Jonathan said:
The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.RobinWiggs said:
But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.Jonathan said:
It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.
Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.
That’s what the principals really want, but Corbin keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.
It could work.0 -
The backstop isbrendan16 said:
Well at least the Lords in attendance have got plenty of exercise today - the hardest £500 they have earned for a while I expect.IanB2 said:
I think they are expecting to go beyond midnight. Unless the Brexiter Lords expire before then.GIN1138 said:
What time do their Lordship's finish?IanB2 said:62 v 235
Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely?
If we could pass all bills this quick parliament only need sit for about 4 weeks a year and get their pay reduced accordingly.
PMQs could still be done weekly on twitter or by skype.
How permanent of course is a ‘permanent’ customs union.Philip_Thompson said:
TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done.RobinWiggs said:
So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.kle4 said:
All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?Benpointer said:
TM deal.
TM deal + customs union/workers rights
TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.
Middle option wins.
TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.
Pipe and slippers time.
What does in mean in practice - what if talks break down post departure and we revert to the backstop anyway. Will Tories accept the CU and Labour MPs accept ending freedom of movement - and how will people’s vote supporters react to being informed of the latter.
What happens if a future parliament wants to leave the ‘a’ customs union for a looser or different arrangement.
In other words could a parliament desperate to see this all sorted agree something which simply falls apart later - either in this parliament or a future one - when we see the details.
Surely nothing is for ever? 0
