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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701

    Anyone know what time we can expect a declaration from Newport?

    2am according to The Guardian
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
    Wishful thinking in spades
    Why?

    Only 10% of Tory MPs voted for Customs Union in the indicative votes. You really think one of them is going to be May's successor?
    The fact that the Chancellor is generally around 50-66/1+ tells you all you need to know about the chance of a remainer succeeding May.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,716
    Ms Onasanya is in court again, on a different matter:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-47805900
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Anyone know what time we can expect a declaration from Newport?

    2am according to The Guardian
    Thanks
  • Anyone know what time we can expect a declaration from Newport?

    Suggested about 2.00 am but cannot be certain
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    its the mass resignations of voters that will do it for the tories for betraying the referendum promise. PM Corbyn is now guaranteed

    No because May will be defenestrated before she goes to the polls. No way Tory MPs allow her another General Election. Her successor will be a Brexiteer (original or born-again like Hunt).
    but if we are forced with a referendum to choose between Mays crap deal and Remain, I suspect Remain would win and we will be forever locked into the EU Superstate. Leavers will desert the tories regardless of who the leader is
    Nothing is forever. There will be great divisions still in the nation and a clamour for a hard Brexiteer to either take over the Tories or in another party. And next time a hard Brexiteer becomes PM there will be a push to finish the job and exit but this time without the government opposing it every step of the way.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    its the mass resignations of voters that will do it for the tories for betraying the referendum promise. PM Corbyn is now guaranteed

    No because May will be defenestrated before she goes to the polls. No way Tory MPs allow her another General Election. Her successor will be a Brexiteer (original or born-again like Hunt).
    but if we are forced with a referendum to choose between Mays crap deal and Remain, I suspect Remain would win and we will be forever locked into the EU Superstate. Leavers will desert the tories regardless of who the leader is
    The leavers who care about the EU to the exclusion of everything else perhaps - definitely not "all leavers". My parents are leavers and they wouldn't vote for Corbyn is any circumstances.
  • kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
    Wishful thinking in spades
    Why?

    Only 10% of Tory MPs voted for Customs Union in the indicative votes. You really think one of them is going to be May's successor?
    I have no idea who will succeed TM. Yesterday speculations was that 20 plus mps want to put their name forward and only when the time comes and the hustings take place will I turn my attention to it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    Somebody take the paint and glitter away from the pair of them.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the members ballot?

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
    Wishful thinking in spades
    Why?

    Only 10% of Tory MPs voted for Customs Union in the indicative votes. You really think one of them is going to be May's successor?
    I have no idea who will succeed TM. Yesterday speculations was that 20 plus mps want to put their name forward and only when the time comes and the hustings take place will I turn my attention to it
    Over 200 MPs opposed the Customs Union, just over 30 backed it, in the indicative votes. All evidence shows Tory members are opposed to it too.

    Odds are that May's successor will be opposed to the Customs Union. Therefore what I posited is not wishful thinking, it is highly probable.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
  • Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I would support the idea as it locks in the deal and is likely to receive thr backing of the devolved mps including the snp
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    GIN1138 said:

    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the memberS ballot.

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D

    Tory MPs wont be happy because it takes away just about all their power
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I would support the idea as it locks in the deal and is likely to receive thr backing of the devolved mps including the snp
    a future parliament can overturn a devo lock if it wishes to
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    They can presumably make it trickier in both political and legislative terms though.
  • Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    GIN1138 said:

    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the members ballot?

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D

    No. But Boris.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the memberS ballot.

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D

    Tory MPs wont be happy because it takes away just about all their power
    Who is actually proposing it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    The Union has to change. Doing so in haphazard fashion without much thought beyond short term calculations is probably not a great way of doing things, but it is very on brand for these islands.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    Why not? Parliament appears to have abandoned parliamentary sovereignty to popular sovereignty as a result of this referendum. The whole constitution’s up for grabs it appears.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    The brutal truth is that England is being kept in the EU by Scotland and Ireland......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    GIN1138 said:

    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the memberS ballot.

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D

    Tory MPs wont be happy
    No more words needed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    PV has the chance that Brexit fails completely. Since the leave option will be May's deal, which is already about as palatable as a cup of cold sick for plenty of Brexiteers and losing the second ref, heck even holding it would utterly destroy the Tories there is no way May can concede to whip for that.

    CM2.0/EFTA/EEA/Boles etc is nice from a business PoV but violates May's FoM red line, so is probably out (It's my preferred option if you're all wondering !)

    So we're left with CU which whilst unpalatable from an economic perspective (The Irish shells could well be fired up for export)
    i) Guarantees Brexit actually happens
    ii) Can keep the FoM red line.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the members ballot?

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D

    No. But Boris.....
    That's what I first thought when I heard it.

    That really does seem to open things up for Boris because Con MPs can keep him off the final two but the four???
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    The brutal truth is that England is being kept in the EU by Scotland and Ireland......
    Nice irony in that.
  • RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    No situation - Brexit or anything - should remove future flexibility. There may be future conditions where governments MUST act without excessive restraint. I fear that the EU will not survive its inner contradictions and will collapse Yugoslavia like. I do not want my children or potential grandchildren forced to fight in an EU war caused by the desire to build a United States of Europe.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    The brutal truth is that England is being kept in the EU by Scotland and Ireland......
    Not really, England is being kept in the EU by the Civil Service. Scotland and Ireland are just part of a blackmail strategy.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    one thing about Brexit, the outcome has been so unpredictable, and even now as things come to a head, no one can say for certain how it will end up, its an enigma of the most frustrating kind, its driving us all mad
  • ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    40 year old Matt Hancock thinks the Tories have got to "skip a generation" after May

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/04/conservatives-need-prepare-skip-generation-replacing-theresa/

    Can't possibly think who he has in mind can you? :D

    #shameless

    Surely from May, skipping a generation means going for a new leader in their 20s?

    Unless we are using schoolgirl mums as the norm.
    She's 62. Amply old enough to be both Hancock's mother and not a schoolgirl at the time.

    Indeed, she's not ridiculously younger than Corbyn.
    Exactly. Hancock is the next generation. The one he wants to skip!
    I think the phrase skip a generation in this context means simply go to the next generation and leave out anyone from May's generation.
    Well that's just bloody daft.
    No because inter-generation transfers are the most common, skipping a generation rules out an inter-generation transfer.
    This is a bloody daft way to use the word 'skipped'. How do you 'skip' the generation that has provided the last 4 PMs?

    In normal usage, 'skip' means to miss out. E.g. in an exam I skip Question 2, i.e. I answer Q1 then Q3.

    put them in a skip?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    Global Britain!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    kjohnw said:

    one thing about Brexit, the outcome has been so unpredictable, and even now as things come to a head, no one can say for certain how it will end up, its an enigma of the most frustrating kind, its driving us all mad

    A fair few were nutty beforehand.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    The brutal truth is that England is being kept in the EU by Scotland and Ireland......
    Not really, England is being kept in the EU by the Civil Service. Scotland and Ireland are just part of a blackmail strategy.
    +1
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the members ballot?

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D

    No. But Boris.....
    That's what I first thought when I heard it.

    That really does seem to open things up for Boris because Con MPs can keep him off the final two but the four???
    According to your predictions the party is losing members and the more that go over this the less chance of Johnson winning
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    It can - through treaties. Look how bound the current parliament is by the GFA (rightly so).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    kjohnw said:

    one thing about Brexit, the outcome has been so unpredictable, and even now as things come to a head, no one can say for certain how it will end up, its an enigma of the most frustrating kind, its driving us all mad

    I agree with you on that point at least.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    No situation - Brexit or anything - should remove future flexibility. There may be future conditions where governments MUST act without excessive restraint. I fear that the EU will not survive its inner contradictions and will collapse Yugoslavia like. I do not want my children or potential grandchildren forced to fight in an EU war caused by the desire to build a United States of Europe.
    That's a pretty high bar.

    "We shouldn't borrow money, because that removes future flexibility"
    "We shouldn't join the International Telecoms Union because we might want to have out own form of telecoms numbering in the future"

    etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What do we make of the reports that the Con leadership rules are going to be changed to allow 4 MPs through to the members ballot?

    Sounds an awful lot like Labour's leadership contest which gave us Jezza!

    Could we end up with JRM becoming PM? :D

    No. But Boris.....
    That's what I first thought when I heard it.

    That really does seem to open things up for Boris because Con MPs can keep him off the final two but the four???
    According to your predictions the party is losing members and the more that go over this the less chance of Johnson winning
    Members will stay members to vote for Boris, would be my assessment. The people that leave will be off to the CUKers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    It can - through treaties. Look how bound the current parliament is by the GFA (rightly so).
    Ultimately, any government can choose to abrogate treaties if they so desire. There may be (unpalatable political) consequences for doing so, but there is no International court the UK can be dragged in front of if we decided we didn't want to be bound by the Good Friday Agreement, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or any number of other treaties we entered into without exit clauses.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    No situation - Brexit or anything - should remove future flexibility. There may be future conditions where governments MUST act without excessive restraint. I fear that the EU will not survive its inner contradictions and will collapse Yugoslavia like. I do not want my children or potential grandchildren forced to fight in an EU war caused by the desire to build a United States of Europe.
    Isn't that argument contradictory? Is the EU going to collapse in on itself, or become a belligerent power? When has Britain/England ever been insulated from European geopolitics before?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    LOL you English boys don't like democracy do you.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
  • RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    No situation - Brexit or anything - should remove future flexibility. There may be future conditions where governments MUST act without excessive restraint. I fear that the EU will not survive its inner contradictions and will collapse Yugoslavia like. I do not want my children or potential grandchildren forced to fight in an EU war caused by the desire to build a United States of Europe.
    Isn't that argument contradictory? Is the EU going to collapse in on itself, or become a belligerent power? When has Britain/England ever been insulated from European geopolitics before?
    We were not a nuclear power before
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    malcolmg said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    LOL you English boys don't like democracy do you.
    Don't lump us all in that category Malcolm.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    The brutal truth is that England is being kept in the EU by Scotland and Ireland......
    LOL , that would be perfection
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    This thread has

    resigned

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    You prefer the Dictatorship, how surprising. You will get your wish soon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    No situation - Brexit or anything - should remove future flexibility. There may be future conditions where governments MUST act without excessive restraint. I fear that the EU will not survive its inner contradictions and will collapse Yugoslavia like. I do not want my children or potential grandchildren forced to fight in an EU war caused by the desire to build a United States of Europe.
    Isn't that argument contradictory? Is the EU going to collapse in on itself, or become a belligerent power? When has Britain/England ever been insulated from European geopolitics before?
    We were not a nuclear power before
    What a ridiculous comment!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    No situation - Brexit or anything - should remove future flexibility. There may be future conditions where governments MUST act without excessive restraint. I fear that the EU will not survive its inner contradictions and will collapse Yugoslavia like. I do not want my children or potential grandchildren forced to fight in an EU war caused by the desire to build a United States of Europe.
    That's a pretty high bar.

    "We shouldn't borrow money, because that removes future flexibility"
    "We shouldn't join the International Telecoms Union because we might want to have out own form of telecoms numbering in the future"

    etc.
    Article 57 of the International Telecoms Union allows any nation to denounce and exit the ITU by providing one year's notice of its desire to do so. So no future Parliament is bound to it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:


    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)

    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - in which case a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1113753348463910912
    How does this happen? Parliament cannot bind its successors.
    No situation - Brexit or anything - should remove future flexibility. There may be future conditions where governments MUST act without excessive restraint. I fear that the EU will not survive its inner contradictions and will collapse Yugoslavia like. I do not want my children or potential grandchildren forced to fight in an EU war caused by the desire to build a United States of Europe.
    That's a pretty high bar.

    "We shouldn't borrow money, because that removes future flexibility"
    "We shouldn't join the International Telecoms Union because we might want to have out own form of telecoms numbering in the future"

    etc.
    Article 57 of the International Telecoms Union allows any nation to denounce and exit the ITU by providing one year's notice of its desire to do so. So no future Parliament is bound to it.
    1) I said excessive restraint
    2) Power should always be devolved downwards to the appropriate level where it can be wielded by representatives close enough to the people to manage it for the good of the community. National finance, foreign affairs and defence should be managed at the level which manages our international relations. Other matters could and should be devolved to national governments, regions and councils provided standards and efficiencies are retained.I believe in the UK as a basic unit and therefore would want to retain taxation, foreign affairs and defence at a UK level - and thus control of Brexit at that level. The incompetence of the negotiations is testing my view to destruction however.
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