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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-

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  • TGOHF said:

    Varadkar - Merkel press conference is painful to watch as they stonewall the border which would come in on the 13th April. Varadkar had no answer whatsoever

    Merkel is the key here with her 'where there is a will there is a way'

    Merkel doesn't want a border - but is the one threatening to build one.
    They have no choice or else it becomes mainland France
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    The YouGov poll which seems to have caused some excitement is not as reported . Those figures are for if the EU refuses an extension .

    Only 26 percent want a no deal .

    What a surprise, a remainer who is also a compulsive liar.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113823082123337733
    Go read the full poll on YouGov . And refrain in future from making pathetic accusations .
    I have you idiot, asking what result people would have preferred is a different question to what option they will support.
    There are a range of results the 51 49 is just removing DKs from the 44 42 result which asks about no deal by Apr 12 and no further extension .

    You really need to calm down and aren’t doing yourself any favours by your abusive attitude . Try an anger management course , it might help !
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244

    No. No, in fact for two reasons.

    First, No Deal Brexit is not worth harming anyone. Even if the damage could be confined to hardcore Leavers (which it couldn't), I would not wish them any harm.

    Secondly, the fantasists will decide either that the harm did not happen or that the harm was unrelated to Brexit or that the harm was caused by the hamfisted implementation of No Deal Brexit. They would never accept that No Deal was innately flawed.

    Death cultists seek only greater perfection for their mortal desire.

    Your 1st reason I mainly agree with but I don't agree with it 100%. If No Deal really did kill off a false and toxic notion of what this country is all about, then I can see a case for saying that it is worth suffering some damage for a period of time, provided the suffering is of the 1st world sort.

    However, I totally agree with your 2nd point. True believers must find a way to still believe and so they would. Meaning the pain would not produce the gain.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.

    Carnage here but why is that their problem? If your point is that they will end up with a lot of rebarbative nutters as UK meps they are used to that.
    Good, I'm voting for the craziest twat I can find on the ballot paper.
    I think Nigel Farage will be standing again. Alternatively there will be Tommy Robinson, both of the same cloth.
    Great, Tommy it is then. We don't want the odious tosser here, we can send him to Brussels, with a nice trip to Strasbourg once a month.
    It is sometimes good to give extreme rightwingers and their ideas a platform to show how ridiculous and stupid they are. Jacob Rees Mogg is a case in point, Brexit as a concept is another. It's going to be great. Easiest deal in history. Take back control. Just amazes me that anyone who can write/type on a computer keyboard can still think it is a good idea.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,716
    Off-topic:

    For anyone interested, the interim report about the Ethiopian Airlines 737 Max crash has been released:
    http://www.ecaa.gov.et/documents/20435/0/Preliminary+Report+B737-800MAX+,(ET-AVJ).pdf/
  • Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Well they would say that :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Reverse cowgirl ERG.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.

    Carnage here but why is that their problem? If your point is that they will end up with a lot of rebarbative nutters as UK meps they are used to that.
    Good, I'm voting for the craziest twat I can find on the ballot paper.
    I think Nigel Farage will be standing again. Alternatively there will be Tommy Robinson, both of the same cloth.
    Great, Tommy it is then. We don't want the odious tosser here, we can send him to Brussels, with a nice trip to Strasbourg once a month.
    It is sometimes good to give extreme rightwingers and their ideas a platform to show how ridiculous and stupid they are. Jacob Rees Mogg is a case in point, Brexit as a concept is another. It's going to be great. Easiest deal in history. Take back control. Just amazes me that anyone who can write/type on a computer keyboard can still think it is a good idea.
    Are we sure he doesn't have a servant to work the computer for him?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.

    Carnage here but why is that their problem? If your point is that they will end up with a lot of rebarbative nutters as UK meps they are used to that.
    Good, I'm voting for the craziest twat I can find on the ballot paper.
    I think Nigel Farage will be standing again. Alternatively there will be Tommy Robinson, both of the same cloth.
    Great, Tommy it is then. We don't want the odious tosser here, we can send him to Brussels, with a nice trip to Strasbourg once a month.
    It is sometimes good to give extreme rightwingers and their ideas a platform to show how ridiculous and stupid they are. Jacob Rees Mogg is a case in point, Brexit as a concept is another. It's going to be great. Easiest deal in history. Take back control. Just amazes me that anyone who can write/type on a computer keyboard can still think it is a good idea.
    It's not me typing, I have a cart load of monkeys knocking this out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426


    Am hearing that the "Renew" party has been spending a fair bit in Newport? What to make of it I don't know but just had a wild bet of £3.

    More here if it's of any help:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/31/newport-west-byelection-voters-look-away-from-main-parties-for-renewal

    I can't imagine they would do more than take a few votes off Labour. Might be relevant if he result is close.

    But really, who knows where we are or what will happen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    I wish I could believe that. Absent her giving in on customs union and him not demanding a referendum I don’t see how that happens, and Corbyn doesn’t have the party backing for that I suspect.

    I fear it is just a sign may was not serious after all and is once again stringing things out.

    I have little hope for a joint May/Corbyn position. I just cannot see it.

    In fact, my personal mood (for want of a better word) on Brexit is changing. Up to the last couple of days I have seen all of this as a boon. A fascinating puzzle to be grappled with, a great betting opportunity, a compelling drama to be followed, but with the cosy underlying assumption that, ultimately, and no doubt at the very last gasp, we would ratify the Withdrawal Agreement, leave into transition, and then proceed to negotiate a pragmatic trade deal over the next few years.

    Not so sure of that now. Things are starting to look quite bleak and it is not clear where a non-traumatic resolution of this crisis is going to come from. So all of a sudden I'm not enjoying it so much. I've gone a bit Yvette Cooper. I'm worried.
    I've been at work where I don't have a lot of spare time to pore over the latest news, but I did hear some ridiculous suggestion to the effect that Theresa May will go to Brussels and ask the other leaders for an extension simply to keep on fruitlessly talking to Corbyn. What follows then depends on the response of the EU27.
    It does, but while they are more prepared than us they don't seem to want no deal either, so so long as May and Corbyn keep a straight face the EU leaders might well pretend to believe them.
    An awful lot seems to be predicated on this notion that the EU will continue to indulge the UK forever, because it is terrified of No Deal. I'm not sure that this is entirely true.

    Of course, in the unlikely event that they buy this rubbish, they're bound to insist on a lengthy extension this time. They need to settle the issue of the European Parliament elections: if they allow a situation to develop in which we do not participate yet retain a right to Revoke, then if Revocation did subsequently occur it would muck up the EU's entire political/legal order.
    I don't think they are terrified. I think they are still driven by political considerations of what is easier, and kicking the can is usually easier.
  • TGOHF said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Well they would say that :D
    Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.

    I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    TGOHF said:

    The EU would be nuts to force us to have EU elections this close to the chaos that is Westminster at the minute. I know they say that rules is rules and they can't do owt about it, but feck me, it'll be carnage.

    I'm amazed that Cons haven't ruled out fielding candidates whether the elections happen or not - absolutely no upside to participation.

    They can always install a special padded chamber for the British MEPs.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Point of order: There's no pastry on a shepherd's pie.

    Fair cop. I was thinking of the other ones. The reprehensible Bigham has a finger in quite a few and that problem I describe always manifests.

    There is an obvious and brutal next question, a killer really, so I will pose it myself in order to limit the damage.

    If I hate 'CB' pies so much how come I keep buying them?
    Because Fray Bentos exist?

    Do those things still exist?
    ‘Things’ being the right term...

    I believe so
    Birthplace of Arsenal’s Lucas Torreira I believe
    In a pie?
    His mum had one in the oven... in Fray Bentos!
    Uruguay
    Eh?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Well they would say that :D
    Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.

    I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case
    Depends on what they come up with. Some stupid customs union idea would be bad.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Should be an easy discussion , they have few options, an hour to lay them out and then see who is going to fold.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.

    Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Well they would say that :D
    Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.

    I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case
    Depends on what they come up with. Some stupid customs union idea would be bad.
    Anything that results in the end to this chaos would be excellent
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.

    Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
    Except isn't Kier Starmer incredibly keen on a referendum? What options could he be sketching out?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited April 2019

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Well they would say that :D
    Why when they clearly are talking and going into a third day.

    I assume you hope they fail which is very sad if it is the case
    Depends on what they come up with. Some stupid customs union idea would be bad.
    Anything that results in the end to this chaos would be excellent
    For pure comedy value they should come out with the May deal, unaltered, with a cheeky wink to camera.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.

    Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
    Does the House of Commons have a need for a quorum?

    If not, perhaps the solution is to send everyone away except for the tellers, the Speaker and Ken Clarke, and he can just vote through whatever - Deal or Revoke - and we all accept it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497

    kle4 said:

    It does, but while they are more prepared than us they don't seem to want no deal either, so so long as May and Corbyn keep a straight face the EU leaders might well pretend to believe them.

    The EU27 won't budge on the European elections issue, though, which would mean that unless the WA is going to get ratified in the next few days, the only way to avoid a crash-out is a long extension and holding the European elections. That in turn would be extremely difficult for Theresa May.
    It will be terminal for Theresa May. But that seems to be where we're headed. By this time next week we will probably have a long extension, imminent EU elections and a vacancy for the position of Tory leader.
    May has managed to make herself simultaneously politically dead and very hard to remove. That gives her a lot of scope to survive the unsurvivable.
    Politically undead.

    Like the Liberal Democrat peers in the Lords.
  • IanB2 said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.

    Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
    The one thing TM has done has exposed Corbyn's own difficulties and at a stroke prevented him sitting back and waiting for it to go pear shaped
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Reverse cowgirl ERG.
    I feel like this some kind of code I am not able to penetrate, or the opening gambit in some kind of word association game.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Endillion said:

    I mean, I'm not a LibDem, but it seems pretty simple to me (and did at the time):

    - Not gone for the AV referendum (once the Tories ruled out any form of electoral reform you wanted, you should have just taken it off the table)
    - Not agreed to vote for increasing tuition fees, as the quid pro quo for giving ground on electoral reform (above)
    - Not reneged on the promise to vote through the boundary changes (admittedly this wasn't in 2010), which would have netted you HoL reform
    - Been more proactive in claiming policy wins - the only thing I did feel sorry for you on was Osborne's gleeful theft of the "lifting the low paid out of income tax" agenda, which was good policy, but certainly wasn't his idea.

    Again, the gift of hindsight prevalent here but let's look at these:

    1) AV or STV? AV has never been LD policy, indeed it's worse than FPTP in some circumstances but Clegg knew he couldn't get the Conservatives to agree to STV at Westminster but he had to offer the party something. I think STV at local elections might have been sellable to Cameron but they weren't going to budge on FPTP at Westminster for obvious reasons.

    2) We're talking about the Government formation. In terms of the fees, I don't recall scrapping tuition fees being actual LD policy but too many candidates signed up to an NUS pledge in order to garner student votes. The politics of that was amateurish and disastrous.

    3) Maybe, maybe not. I'm not convinced that had a huge impact.

    4) Again maybe, maybe not. As I've said before, in coalition you get some of what you want but you also have to accept some of what you don't want because the other side want it. Conservatives voted for LD measures and if you re-read the papers from 2012-13 the whole thrust is that Cameron was basically leading an LD Government.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.

    Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
    Does the House of Commons have a need for a quorum?

    If not, perhaps the solution is to send everyone away except for the tellers, the Speaker and Ken Clarke, and he can just vote through whatever - Deal or Revoke - and we all accept it.
    Didn’t someone once say that law-making was like making sausages: you might like to result but you shouldn’t watch the process too closely
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    edited April 2019

    No. If we can't come up with any sort of plan then I think they *have* to give up and send May packing. Otherwise, the faffing could continue forever, and they don't want that either. That would presumably lead to a Revoke versus No Deal vote in the Commons on the 11th.

    I know that MPs don't want to be forced to make such an onerous decision, but if they can't agree on anything else than eventually they're going to have to do it.

    A part of me hopes that the EU does exactly that. Calls time on this. MPs will then have to pass the WA or make an active positive choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Earn their corn. The WA must have a chance, in that truly desperate situation, but if not I predict that they will opt for the deep blue sea. Perhaps you feel the devil will sneak it. But whatever, my god, what a terribly tense vote that will be. I would find it hard to watch.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .

    As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.

    From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .

    The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?

    Do we know more?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    nico67 said:

    If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .

    As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.

    From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .

    The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .

    Yes, inclined to agree with that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Reverse cowgirl ERG.
    I feel like this some kind of code I am not able to penetrate, or the opening gambit in some kind of word association game.
    I advise you not to google it
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Laura Kunnesberg saying both sides are taking the brexit talks very seriously as they are aware of the urgency and while an agreement has not yet been agreed, they are continuing the talks tomorrow

    Aware of the risks of taking more than half the blame for failure, more like.

    Haven't May and Corbyn both been absent today? Hopefully in their absence the teams will have been able to sketch out some possible options.
    Does the House of Commons have a need for a quorum?

    If not, perhaps the solution is to send everyone away except for the tellers, the Speaker and Ken Clarke, and he can just vote through whatever - Deal or Revoke - and we all accept it.
    Didn’t someone once say that law-making was like making sausages: you might like to result but you shouldn’t watch the process too closely
    Bismarck I think
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?

    Do we know more?

    I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room. :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    What an odd headline

    Brexit: DUP accuses government of U-turn
    The DUP has accused the government of preparing for a Brexit U-turn after the chancellor suggested another referendum would be a "credible proposition".

    The DUP has also insisted that it does not support the UK joining a customs union with the EU


    It's not really an accusation - they are u-turning, though how far is not clear at this time. Why exactly do the DUP think the government cannot try to find votes elsewhere if they won't provide the votes? They are, they say, principled, surely they accept others' principles mean they need to find a compromise?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Only one by-election today - should be a safe Con defence in Wroxham (Norfolk CC).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    slade said:

    Only one by-election today - should be a safe Con defence in Wroxham (Norfolk CC).

    Isn't there something on in Newport?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    No. If we can't come up with any sort of plan then I think they *have* to give up and send May packing. Otherwise, the faffing could continue forever, and they don't want that either. That would presumably lead to a Revoke versus No Deal vote in the Commons on the 11th.

    I know that MPs don't want to be forced to make such an onerous decision, but if they can't agree on anything else than eventually they're going to have to do it.

    A part of me hopes that the EU does exactly that. Calls time on this. MPs will then have to pass the WA or make an active positive choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Earn their corn. The WA must have a chance, in that truly desperate situation, but if not I predict that they will opt for the deep blue sea. Perhaps you feel the devil will sneak it. But whatever, my god, what a terribly tense vote that will be. I would find it hard to watch.
    In your metaphor which is the devil and which the deep blue sea?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:
    Well yeah, but 25 is still enough to kill the prospects of a referendum passing stone-dead.
    Reverse cowgirl ERG.
    I feel like this some kind of code I am not able to penetrate, or the opening gambit in some kind of word association game.
    I advise you not to google it
    I know what the words mean. I just don't know why they're combined with ERG! And I do not want to know, in fairness.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .

    As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.

    From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .

    The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .

    Yes, inclined to agree with that.
    Thanks . I think politicians have added to the problems by some of their irresponsible rhetoric. They have done nothing to unite the country . A deal is the only way forward .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    ydoethur said:

    slade said:

    Only one by-election today - should be a safe Con defence in Wroxham (Norfolk CC).

    Isn't there something on in Newport?
    Only one by-election in a real county ;)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    nico67 said:

    If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .

    As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.

    From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .

    The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .

    With right-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a cold Singapore and some left-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a wet Venezuela, I hope they can find a way to make PD changes agreed now binding. One of the best justifications of a confirmatory referendum and an early general election.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?

    Do we know more?

    Nothing. Same as always.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    IanB2 said:

    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.

    What time do their Lordship's finish?

    They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.

    What time do their Lordship's finish?

    They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? :D
    Some days they have to earn that £300 a day. Well, the 40% or so who are there.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    nico67 said:

    The same poll being lauded by Leavers also shows the following

    No deal bad outcome 50%

    Good outcome 25%

    Compromise 13%

    Leaving without a deal isn’t a good outcome but it a question of whether voters prefer the alternative.



    Q
    Perhaps - but I expect a few leavers are IT literate enough to avoid posting ridiculously long links.

    As your posts ably demonstrate not all remain supporters are intelligent and informed and not all leave voters are dumb and ill informed. But the overwhelming majority of both are perfectly decent respectful people who simply disagree about whether we leave a political institution.

    My father voted remain and my mother leave - as was their choice based on their experience of life. And they didn’t make those different choices because of their opinions on the straightness of fruit.

    Perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and stop being so narrow minded and judgemental!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?

    Do we know more?

    I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room. :wink:
    Nothing about it on any of the sites and feeds I follow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.

    What time do their Lordship's finish?

    They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? :D
    I think they are expecting to go beyond midnight. Unless the Brexiter Lords expire before then.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited April 2019
    James Cleverly to replace Chris Heaton-Harris as Brexit Minister.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2019
    I think I've just seen Long-Bailey on Labour's Brexit team. Is that wise when so few people seem to be taking their participation seriously anyway?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    James Cleverly to replace Chris Heaton-Harris as Brexit Minister.

    The role might be abolished before the end of next week!
  • IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.

    What time do their Lordship's finish?

    They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? :D
    I think they are expecting to go beyond midnight. Unless the Brexiter Lords expire before then.
    The Shadow leader said they will go through the night into breakfast but who knows
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    James Cleverly to replace Chris Heaton-Harris as Brexit Minister.

    The role might be abolished before the end of next week!
    Best to get 'former minister' on the CV quick then!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?

    Do we know more?

    I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room. :wink:
    Nothing about it on any of the sites and feeds I follow.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/04/brexit-latest-news-philip-hammond-says-second-referendum-perfectly/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    Looks like a cross-party agreement to do the second parts of considering the Bill in the Lords on Monday, rather than attempt it all today. In return for cutting the filibustering and pointless amendments.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting an "emergency" Cabinet meeting is going on right now?

    Do we know more?

    I'll let you know once we have finished - T doesn't like us texting from the Cabinet room. :wink:
    Nothing about it on any of the sites and feeds I follow.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/04/brexit-latest-news-philip-hammond-says-second-referendum-perfectly/
    Telegraph says: Cabinet ministers are holding an emergency meeting with Theresa May now in Number 10 in the wake of discussions with Labour
    ... which is not quite the same thing and might be more significant.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Roger said:

    I think I've just seen Long-Bailey on Labour's Brexit team. Is that wise when so few people seem to be taking their participation seriously anyway?

    Long-Bailey is Len's man in the room.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    edited April 2019
    Now 122 Unopposed/Guaranteed Conservative candidates, 8 Lib Dem, 4 Labour.

    My impression is that there are more independent and Green candidates than usual , and more UKIP than I expected (but many fewer than 2015).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,399
    ydoethur said:

    slade said:

    Only one by-election today - should be a safe Con defence in Wroxham (Norfolk CC).

    Isn't there something on in Newport?
    Nah, County not playing Tranmere until Saturday.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.

    What time do their Lordship's finish?

    They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? :D
    There may be some more localised flooding in that case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    I am not sure it makes much difference precisely how long she asks will be down to the EU to offer.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    brendan16 said:

    nico67 said:

    The same poll being lauded by Leavers also shows the following

    No deal bad outcome 50%

    Good outcome 25%

    Compromise 13%

    Leaving without a deal isn’t a good outcome but it a question of whether voters prefer the alternative.



    Q
    Perhaps - but I expect a few leavers are IT literate enough to avoid posting ridiculously long links.

    As your posts ably demonstrate not all remain supporters are intelligent and informed and not all leave voters are dumb and ill informed. But the overwhelming majority of both are perfectly decent respectful people who simply disagree about whether we leave a political institution.

    My father voted remain and my mother leave - as was their choice based on their experience of life. And they didn’t make those different choices because of their opinions on the straightness of fruit.

    Perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and stop being so narrow minded and judgemental!
    Well said.

    I think it is incumbent on everyone to be a little more respectful of other people on this divisive issue - and to recognise that though we may disagree fundamentally with others’ views, they are as well-meaning in their motivations as we are.

    I have recently deliberately included a number of work colleagues and bosses in my social media groups. I find it a useful test, to consider if I would say something to my boss* in the same way as I am proposing to say it to someone else. If I wouldn’t, I don’t post it.

    *other people are also available as tests, including your mum, spouse or the queen.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,133

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.

    What time do their Lordship's finish?

    They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? :D
    There may be some more localised flooding in that case.
    It has been said that the House of Lords isn't worth a bucket of warm piss. We might be about to test that hypothesis... :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    Sean_F said:

    Now 122 Unopposed/Guaranteed Conservative candidates, 8 Lib Dem, 4 Labour.

    My impression is that there are more independent and Green candidates than unusual , and more UKIP than I expected (but many fewer than 2015).

    Here in Dorset 30 Greens and 30 UKIP candidates for 82 seats.

    More UKIP than I expected and they will no doubt mop up any discontented No Dealers (unless we have exited with no deal by then of course, which could scupper their vote somewhat).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    And hasn't a confirmatory referendum been on each of the indicative votes so far anyway already? And rejected each time?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    Tory Leaver Lords trying to get the House to drop the SO suspension motion in return for promise of good behaviour. Doesn't look like the rest of the house is going to fall for it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Commons intends to keep sitting on Monday until it receives the Bill back from the Lords (targeted for 8 pm)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    No. If we can't come up with any sort of plan then I think they *have* to give up and send May packing. Otherwise, the faffing could continue forever, and they don't want that either. That would presumably lead to a Revoke versus No Deal vote in the Commons on the 11th.

    I know that MPs don't want to be forced to make such an onerous decision, but if they can't agree on anything else than eventually they're going to have to do it.

    A part of me hopes that the EU does exactly that. Calls time on this. MPs will then have to pass the WA or make an active positive choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Earn their corn. The WA must have a chance, in that truly desperate situation, but if not I predict that they will opt for the deep blue sea. Perhaps you feel the devil will sneak it. But whatever, my god, what a terribly tense vote that will be. I would find it hard to watch.
    In terms of the order of preference of what I'd like to see Parliament vote through, at the moment I'd rank them as follows:

    1. Deal
    2. Deal plus Referendum
    3. No Deal or Revoke (can see significant benefits and drawbacks to each relative to the other; I'm genuinely not sure which is worse)
    4. Any form of softer Brexit (we'd be better off Remaining on current terms)

    Though there is also part of me that would relish MPs being forced to choose between No Deal and Revoke, and then suffer the political consequences of either decision. It would be payback for the original sin of pretty well all the political parties (except the SNP): that they voted en bloc to pass the EU Referendum Act, when anywhere between the majority and 100% of their MPs thought leaving the EU to be a national disaster and they didn't want to make it happen. Consequently, I have no sympathy whatsoever for the predicament in which they now find themselves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    Lords Business Motion agreed without a division. Looks like the Leavers have given up the delaying tactics in return for a fuller debate on Monday

    Adjournment for 20 mins to draw up a second reading speakers list.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    Leaves the initiative with the Commons to see if it can find a way forward before the Cooper Bill comes back from the Lords. Also allows the May/Corbyn talks to proceed without May having to ask for an extension quite yet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    IanB2 said:

    Lords Business Motion agreed without a division. Looks like the Leavers have given up the delaying tactics in return for a fuller debate on Monday

    Adjournment for 20 mins to draw up a second reading speakers list.

    If they hadn't spent all day farting about with delaying tactics they'd have had plenty of time for fuller debate!
  • kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
    Wishful thinking in spades
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Lords Business Motion agreed without a division. Looks like the Leavers have given up the delaying tactics in return for a fuller debate on Monday

    Adjournment for 20 mins to draw up a second reading speakers list.

    If they hadn't spent all day farting about with delaying tactics they'd have had plenty of time for fuller debate!
    Indeed. As I edited in below, it does however delay putting the extension gun to May's head until after the Leaders' talks and Monday's Commons session have taken place.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.
    But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.

    I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Jonathan said:

    nico67 said:

    If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .

    As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.

    From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .

    The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .

    With right-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a cold Singapore and some left-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a wet Venezuela, I hope they can find a way to make PD changes agreed now binding. One of the best justifications of a confirmatory referendum and an early general election.
    Yebbut, it’s nice when it’s warm and sunny here, isn’t it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    Am I the only one nostalgic for the time when the Brexit pendulum swung from one extreme (No Deal) to the other (Revoke) over the course of every fortnight or so?

    Now it seems to swing back and forth several times a day.

    Will it be switching every minute before this ends?
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
    Wishful thinking in spades
    That’s what today’s “detailed and technical discussions” were about I guess. How to give assurance that it can’t be binned like that. Hence leak which was denied about devolution lock on exiting a CU.
  • BADGEMANBADGEMAN Posts: 1
    I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.
    But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.

    I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.

    The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    There’s not much danger to May putting a second vote as part of the options as it won’t get through anyway .

    That gives Labour the chance to say we tried and it didn’t get through . A customs union won’t get through and shouldn’t as its a daft idea .

    Being in the EU and CU is fine , it’s pointless being outside and in a CU . A partial CU might be a better idea on certain sectors , in which case it can be called just a customs arrangement.

    Not sure why Remainers should be getting behind a CU , I’m one and it’s not a good outcome .

    The best option was in the single market and out of the CU but because of this obsession to stop freedom of movement that’s got no chance .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited April 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.
    But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.

    I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.

    The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.
    May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.

    Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.

    That’s what the principals really want, but Corbyn keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.

    It could work.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    BADGEMAN said:

    I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?

    If they fail to win it at this moment, it's time for Labour to pack up and go home.

    And welcome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    BADGEMAN said:

    I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?

    In last year's local elections Tory and Labour were almost neck and neck across the seat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited April 2019

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.
    But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.

    I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.

    The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.
    May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.

    Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.

    That’s what the principals really want, but Corbin keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.

    It could work.

    They can both whip the PV. Corbyn already has. May can too, and I suspect she will if it's the price she has to pay for her deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    edited April 2019
    BADGEMAN said:

    I suppose Newport is a shoe-in for Labour. Who comes 2nd is interesting to me. Betfair odds are suggesting Cons will come 3rd, but the Newport W/O labour market sees UKIP coming 3rd. Is there any reason for that?

    No idea, I'm afraid, but welcome aboard!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
    You'd probably have to have a new government following a general election before CU could be scrapped.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.
    But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.

    I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.

    The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.
    May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.

    Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.

    That’s what the principals really want, but Corbin keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.

    It could work.

    They can both whip the PV. Corbyn already has. May can too, and I suspect she will if it's the price she has to pay for her deal.
    No. That’s a trap and a compromise way too far. She couldn’t and wouldn’t. If Labour insist that, it demonstrates they went into this in bad faith. They will own the blame for failure.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Roger said:

    I think I've just seen Long-Bailey on Labour's Brexit team. Is that wise when so few people seem to be taking their participation seriously anyway?

    Think that was optics - woman.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    nico67 said:

    If a miracle happens and Labour and the Tories reach an agreement then I expect the public to quickly get behind that .

    As a Remainer I’m willing to move on as long as there are safeguards to stop a future PM from ripping them up.

    From the start I was willing to accept Leaving as long as it was an orderly exit with a deal . The ERG nutjobs and Farage etc are the ones to blame for entrenching divisions because pushing no deal is polarizing both sides even more .

    The only hope of easing the divisions is with a deal .

    With right-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a cold Singapore and some left-wing ideologues hoping to turn the UK into a wet Venezuela, I hope they can find a way to make PD changes agreed now binding. One of the best justifications of a confirmatory referendum and an early general election.
    Yebbut, it’s nice when it’s warm and sunny here, isn’t it?
    Off topic: What's really going on with Crossrail? Lots in the news today. Seems a bit mad. Surprised they don't try to open some of it.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019


    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum’

    How permanent of course is a ‘permanent’ customs union.

    What does in mean in practice - what if talks break down post departure and we revert to the backstop anyway. Will Tories accept the CU and Labour MPs accept ending freedom of movement - and how will people’s vote supporters react to being informed of the latter.

    What happens if a future parliament wants to leave the ‘a’ customs union for a looser or different arrangement.

    In other words could a parliament desperate to see this all sorted agree something which simply falls apart later - either in this parliament or a future one - when we see the details.

    Surely nothing is for ever?


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    It should be done by amendments to May's deal, with a commitment for both parties to whip the two amendments.
    But it can’t be inserted in the WA. Needs to be an indicative vote so that TM can get EU to rewrite the PD. Then amendments inserted in the deal bill which are whipped.

    I sense we might be getting somewhere... but could be wrong.

    The key point is that May and Corbyn have to both 3-line whip WA, CU & PV.
    May can’t whip PV and Corbyn really doesn’t want to.

    Indicative vote, and then whip the winner thereby removing the impasse and any need for the public to break the deadlock.

    That’s what the principals really want, but Corbin keeps his mob happy that PV was offered and rejected by parliament.

    It could work.

    They can both whip the PV. Corbyn already has. May can too, and I suspect she will if it's the price she has to pay for her deal.
    No. That’s a trap and a compromise way too far. She couldn’t and wouldn’t. If Labour insist that, it demonstrates they went into this in bad faith. They will own the blame for failure.
    The Chancellor says it's ok. Of course it's possible.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    brendan16 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    62 v 235

    Hopefully the Brexiter Lords are getting tired. One more pointless procedural amendment to go, then the business motion, then they might actually start on the Bill.

    What time do their Lordship's finish?

    They don't let the old duffers go on beyond 7pm surely? :D
    I think they are expecting to go beyond midnight. Unless the Brexiter Lords expire before then.
    Well at least the Lords in attendance have got plenty of exercise today - the hardest £500 they have earned for a while I expect.


    If we could pass all bills this quick parliament only need sit for about 4 weeks a year and get their pay reduced accordingly.

    PMQs could still be done weekly on twitter or by skype.

    kle4 said:

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union. Job done. ;)
    How permanent of course is a ‘permanent’ customs union.

    What does in mean in practice - what if talks break down post departure and we revert to the backstop anyway. Will Tories accept the CU and Labour MPs accept ending freedom of movement - and how will people’s vote supporters react to being informed of the latter.

    What happens if a future parliament wants to leave the ‘a’ customs union for a looser or different arrangement.

    In other words could a parliament desperate to see this all sorted agree something which simply falls apart later - either in this parliament or a future one - when we see the details.

    Surely nothing is for ever?


    The backstop is :wink:
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