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In several sub-polls I've seen on no-deal, several parts of that no-deal vote are of people thinking it means remain.GIN1138 said:
The country is hardening towards rock hard Brexit at the same time as Theresa's on her knees begging Jezza to come up with any deal he possibly can for her....Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1113434728143773697
Rather 'interesting' numbers here.
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@theSNP @LibDems @TheGreenParty @LSRPlaid and @TheIndGroup Westminster leaders - excluded from May/Corbyn talks - will all gather just before 4pm to make a joint statement in Commons0
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Doesn't really matter whether the public are theoretically in support of no deal or not. If it happens all that matters is whether it is as bad as its made out to be or not. If things go south no-one will admit to having been in favour, and if they do they will simply blame someone else, probably the government.GIN1138 said:
The country is hardening towards rock hard Brexit at the same time as Theresa's on her knees begging Jezza to come up with any deal he possibly can for her....Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1113434728143773697
Rather 'interesting' numbers here.0 -
The analysis that Mr Hands gives is all pie in the sky and avoids the main question about what will certainly happen. The reality is that on day one businesses like mine will have to pay an extra 10% to ship our products to the EC. I see nothing in the analysis about how the government will compensate us for the massive cost imposition.Sandpit said:
To be honest, remaining in the EU and being shits from the inside is way better than anything involving a customs union with the organisation we just left. It’s the worst possible outcome.TOPPING said:
Yes I know all that. So what is Mr Hannan's (and your) alternative. That could get through the house.Sandpit said:
And the contrary opinion, held by the vast majority of Conservatives:TOPPING said:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669
https://twitter.com/gimblemusk/status/1113370024348213248
The one solution that does exist and will be used extensively is that we set up a company in Dublin and ship products via this location. We will minimise the value of transfer price to reduce costs and pile up profits in Ireland on which we will pay lower Irish taxes. The net impact will be a massive loss of tax revenue to the UK Government and a benefit to the EC.
It is a Kafkaesque world where politicians and members of public line up to demand to do my business harm with no apparent benefit to them except the feeling of power.
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I must confess I don't think I'd heard of Mark Francois until after the 2017 election. He was hardly a major promotion by Cameron.williamglenn said:
I just edited my comment to add that Mark Francois was his Shadow Europe Minister. He also brought David Campbell Bannerman back in from UKIP.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's not what you said.williamglenn said:Gove frames it fairly explicitly like that in this 2009 interview.
"Because he was clear on those areas [e.g. Europe], he had permission from the base to move to the centre on issues of social policy like health and education, and also on the environment."
Of course, like any party leader, he couldn't ignore a substantial body of opinion in the party, any more than Harold Wilson could ignore the hard left or Maggie the 'wets'.
He went well beyond not ignoring them.0 -
That’s her!williamglenn said:
Corby limey!Sandpit said:
The “Cutie” I spent days canvassing for, lasted only two years before giving up on the whole MP idea to move to the States. Grr...JohnO said:
Indeed, and I'm not sure all those A Listers parachuted into safe seats in 2010 have returned Dave's favour.williamglenn said:
Cameron seemed to think modernisation meant promoting ERG-type nutters in a quid-pro-quo for giving him leeway on the social issues. The state of the party now is the culmination of Cameron's strategy.Richard_Nabavi said:
At our recent Conservative constituency AGM a new chairman was appointed, who I think will make considerable efforts to try to encourage younger people to join the party. But as a very senior member said to me afterwards: "Anyone under 50 who'd heard tonight's discussion would run a mile.'IanB2 said:The biggest obstacle to the future of the Conservative Party is that they don’t appeal to the young, he says. For the Party, “young” is now “below 47”. “We need to find new voters,” he says.
We have a big, big problem, and as Sam Gyimah says, we've gone a long way backwards since the Cameron days.0 -
That's been the problem with Brexit from the start. Politicians driven by dogma who see their job as denying, ignoring or trying to explain away all the practical concerns that will hit real lives and livelihoods. They decide the answer first and then pick and choose from the evidence afterwards.hamiltonace said:
The analysis that Mr Hands gives is all pie in the sky and avoids the main question about what will certainly happen. The reality is that on day one businesses like mine will have to pay an extra 10% to ship our products to the EC. I see nothing in the analysis about how the government will compensate us for the massive cost imposition.Sandpit said:
To be honest, remaining in the EU and being shits from the inside is way better than anything involving a customs union with the organisation we just left. It’s the worst possible outcome.TOPPING said:
Yes I know all that. So what is Mr Hannan's (and your) alternative. That could get through the house.Sandpit said:
And the contrary opinion, held by the vast majority of Conservatives:TOPPING said:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669
https://twitter.com/gimblemusk/status/1113370024348213248
The one solution that does exist and will be used extensively is that we set up a company in Dublin and ship products via this location. We will minimise the value of transfer price to reduce costs and pile up profits in Ireland on which we will pay lower Irish taxes. The net impact will be a massive loss of tax revenue to the UK Government and a benefit to the EC.
It is a Kafkaesque world where politicians and members of public line up to demand to do my business harm with no apparent benefit to them except the feeling of power.0 -
Although presumably these polls are based on latest polling? (which had previously suggested a strong move in Wales to Remain).Endillion said:
Just Scotland. Wales voted Leave.tottenhamWC said:
Also "helpfully" misses out Scotland and Wales....Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1113434728143773697
Rather 'interesting' numbers here.0 -
I'd be concerned that the lack of standards/legislative alignment due to being out of the Single Market would cause supply chain disruption and delays for checks of standards/etc. And the need to re-underwrite all standards checking regimes.Bob__Sykes said:
Useful post from Nick Herbert, and I like the Motions Table summary too.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sensible stuff from Nick Herbert. He could have added that it also takes us out of the CAP and CFP.TOPPING said:
I had thought "CM2.0" was a better outcome than Ken Clarke's "CU" proposal, but I am not so sure now. Will "CU" really tick all the same boxes as May's Deal other than "independent trade policy" - which I think most of us have decided is not really worth the fag of wrecking the economy for.0 -
Still, she's added greatly to the sum of human knowledge on social media since then.Sandpit said:
The “Cutie” I spent days canvassing for, lasted only two years before giving up on the whole MP idea to move to the States. Grr...JohnO said:
Indeed, and I'm not sure all those A Listers parachuted into safe seats in 2010 have returned Dave's favour.williamglenn said:
Cameron seemed to think modernisation meant promoting ERG-type nutters in a quid-pro-quo for giving him leeway on the social issues. The state of the party now is the culmination of Cameron's strategy.Richard_Nabavi said:
At our recent Conservative constituency AGM a new chairman was appointed, who I think will make considerable efforts to try to encourage younger people to join the party. But as a very senior member said to me afterwards: "Anyone under 50 who'd heard tonight's discussion would run a mile.'IanB2 said:The biggest obstacle to the future of the Conservative Party is that they don’t appeal to the young, he says. For the Party, “young” is now “below 47”. “We need to find new voters,” he says.
We have a big, big problem, and as Sam Gyimah says, we've gone a long way backwards since the Cameron days.0 -
During the coalition years, he allowed Cabinet ministers to say we should leave the EU, and then promoted one of them to be Foreign Secretary. I don't think the idea that he fed the Eurosceptic beast is controversial.Richard_Nabavi said:
I must confess I don't think I'd heard of Mark Francois until after the 2017 election. He was hardly a major promotion by Cameron.williamglenn said:
I just edited my comment to add that Mark Francois was his Shadow Europe Minister. He also brought David Campbell Bannerman back in from UKIP.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's not what you said.williamglenn said:Gove frames it fairly explicitly like that in this 2009 interview.
"Because he was clear on those areas [e.g. Europe], he had permission from the base to move to the centre on issues of social policy like health and education, and also on the environment."
Of course, like any party leader, he couldn't ignore a substantial body of opinion in the party, any more than Harold Wilson could ignore the hard left or Maggie the 'wets'.
He went well beyond not ignoring them.0 -
She was quite cute, though!Sandpit said:
The “Cutie” I spent days canvassing for, lasted only two years before giving up on the whole MP idea to move to the States. Grr...JohnO said:
Indeed, and I'm not sure all those A Listers parachuted into safe seats in 2010 have returned Dave's favour.williamglenn said:
Cameron seemed to think modernisation meant promoting ERG-type nutters in a quid-pro-quo for giving him leeway on the social issues. The state of the party now is the culmination of Cameron's strategy.Richard_Nabavi said:
At our recent Conservative constituency AGM a new chairman was appointed, who I think will make considerable efforts to try to encourage younger people to join the party. But as a very senior member said to me afterwards: "Anyone under 50 who'd heard tonight's discussion would run a mile.'IanB2 said:The biggest obstacle to the future of the Conservative Party is that they don’t appeal to the young, he says. For the Party, “young” is now “below 47”. “We need to find new voters,” he says.
We have a big, big problem, and as Sam Gyimah says, we've gone a long way backwards since the Cameron days.0 -
It just isn't PURE ! The only people we hate more than the Romans are the fucking ERG! SplittersRichard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. So you don't see any of these as positives from leaving the EU?Sandpit said:...
A CU is an utterly bonkers idea - it locks in all the possible negatives of leaving the EU, whilst foregoing all the positives....
- Control over immigration
- Leaving the CAP
- Leaving the CFP
- Ending the direct application of EU law to domestic issues outside product regulation
- Leaving the political structures of the EU
- Being free of ever-closer union
- Sending £350m a week to Brussels (yes, I know, I know...)
In other words, you thought 95%+ of what Vote Leave campaigned on wasn't actually anything positive?0 -
And then went totally insane, right? Or am I thinking of the wrong ex-MP?Sandpit said:
The “Cutie” I spent days canvassing for, lasted only two years before giving up on the whole MP idea to move to the States. Grr...JohnO said:
Indeed, and I'm not sure all those A Listers parachuted into safe seats in 2010 have returned Dave's favour.williamglenn said:
Cameron seemed to think modernisation meant promoting ERG-type nutters in a quid-pro-quo for giving him leeway on the social issues. The state of the party now is the culmination of Cameron's strategy.Richard_Nabavi said:
At our recent Conservative constituency AGM a new chairman was appointed, who I think will make considerable efforts to try to encourage younger people to join the party. But as a very senior member said to me afterwards: "Anyone under 50 who'd heard tonight's discussion would run a mile.'IanB2 said:The biggest obstacle to the future of the Conservative Party is that they don’t appeal to the young, he says. For the Party, “young” is now “below 47”. “We need to find new voters,” he says.
We have a big, big problem, and as Sam Gyimah says, we've gone a long way backwards since the Cameron days.0 -
He didn't feed the beast, it was there guzzling in the undergrowth all along, and he kept it pretty well chained up for a decade. He also had a really good plan for slaying it. Admittedly that plan was torpedoed by the electorate in 2016, which is a big pity. It was a great prize he was going for.williamglenn said:During the coalition years, he allowed Cabinet ministers to say we should leave the EU, and then promoted one of them to be Foreign Secretary. I don't think the idea that he fed the Eurosceptic beast is controversial.
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Good post. You have summed up one of the many stupidities of Brexithamiltonace said:
The analysis that Mr Hands gives is all pie in the sky and avoids the main question about what will certainly happen. The reality is that on day one businesses like mine will have to pay an extra 10% to ship our products to the EC. I see nothing in the analysis about how the government will compensate us for the massive cost imposition.Sandpit said:
To be honest, remaining in the EU and being shits from the inside is way better than anything involving a customs union with the organisation we just left. It’s the worst possible outcome.TOPPING said:
Yes I know all that. So what is Mr Hannan's (and your) alternative. That could get through the house.Sandpit said:
And the contrary opinion, held by the vast majority of Conservatives:TOPPING said:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669
https://twitter.com/gimblemusk/status/1113370024348213248
The one solution that does exist and will be used extensively is that we set up a company in Dublin and ship products via this location. We will minimise the value of transfer price to reduce costs and pile up profits in Ireland on which we will pay lower Irish taxes. The net impact will be a massive loss of tax revenue to the UK Government and a benefit to the EC.
It is a Kafkaesque world where politicians and members of public line up to demand to do my business harm with no apparent benefit to them except the feeling of power.0 -
Don't forget the good sized boost to the Irish Exchequer if the CU ends up being a Turkey as alluded to by @HamiltonAceRichard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. So you don't see any of these as positives from leaving the EU?Sandpit said:...
A CU is an utterly bonkers idea - it locks in all the possible negatives of leaving the EU, whilst foregoing all the positives....
- Control over immigration
- Leaving the CAP
- Leaving the CFP
- Ending the direct application of EU law to domestic issues outside product regulation
- Leaving the political structures of the EU
- Being free of ever-closer union
- Sending £350m a week to Brussels (yes, I know, I know...)
In other words, you thought 95%+ of what Vote Leave campaigned on wasn't actually anything positive?
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Interestingly, most of those are achieved by CM2.0Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. So you don't see any of these as positives from leaving the EU?Sandpit said:...
A CU is an utterly bonkers idea - it locks in all the possible negatives of leaving the EU, whilst foregoing all the positives....
- Control over immigration
- Leaving the CAP
- Leaving the CFP
- Ending the direct application of EU law to domestic issues outside product regulation
- Leaving the political structures of the EU
- Being free of ever-closer union
- Sending £350m a week to Brussels (yes, I know, I know...)
In other words, you thought 95%+ of what Vote Leave campaigned on wasn't actually anything positive?
- Control over immigration [limited (we could exercise our existing controls on FoM that we don't use, but we can confirm that 60 million Syrians and Turks won't be coming in)]
- Leaving the CAP [yes]
- Leaving the CFP [yes]
- Ending the direct application of EU law to domestic issues outside product regulation [mostly; unless involved in Single Market issues]
- Leaving the political structures of the EU [yes, including the ECJ]
- Free of ever-closer union [yes]
- Not sending £350m a week to Brussels [yes; down to only about £100m]
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Of course he fed it. That's why the reaction to his renegotiation and then his decision (as he presented it) to campaign for Remain caused such a backlash.Richard_Nabavi said:
He didn't feed the beast, it was there guzzling in the undergrowth all along, and he kept it pretty well chained up for a decade. He also had a really good plan for slaying it. Admittedly that plan was torpedoed by the electorate in 2016, which is a big pity. It was a great prize he was going for.williamglenn said:During the coalition years, he allowed Cabinet ministers to say we should leave the EU, and then promoted one of them to be Foreign Secretary. I don't think the idea that he fed the Eurosceptic beast is controversial.
You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.0 -
Off topic, if any of you plan on any gardening remember to use gloves, especially if you are tying in your roses or repotting cacti, as I was this weekend.
I never do - I like the feel of soil etc - but for my pains I now have arms full of scratches and a swollen blue infected finger which has necessitated a very long wait at the emergency walk in clinic.
Still no finger wagging by me for a while..... 0 -
Fine, let's just stay then.Sandpit said:
To be honest, remaining in the EU and being shits from the inside is way better than anything involving a customs union with the organisation we just left. It’s the worst possible outcome.TOPPING said:
Yes I know all that. So what is Mr Hannan's (and your) alternative. That could get through the house.Sandpit said:
And the contrary opinion, held by the vast majority of Conservatives:TOPPING said:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669
https://twitter.com/gimblemusk/status/1113370024348213248
Brexiteers had several chances to leave, yet continued to vote against it.0 -
A lecture from Bill Cash isn't what this debate needs right now. Although it will surely make certain a healthy majority for the motion and amendment.0
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Miss Cyclefree, I hope your finger quickly becomes green rather than blue.0
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This poll seems to conveniently ignore the three Celtic nations? I wonder why?GIN1138 said:
The country is hardening towards rock hard Brexit at the same time as Theresa's on her knees begging Jezza to come up with any deal he possibly can for her....Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1113434728143773697
Rather 'interesting' numbers here.0 -
"...the 1972 European Communities Act..."IanB2 said:A lecture from Bill Cash isn't what this debate needs right now. Although it will surely make certain a healthy majority for the motion and amendment.
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Even if this Parliament passes the Withdrawal Agreement and we manage to leave the EU - by no means certain - it is hard to see how the Future Relationship can be progressed with no mandate and no majority. So I think the chance of a general election in 2019 is greater than 45%. More like 60%.0
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Chris said:
I think he nearly got it right the third time. Anyway, he hasn't totally lost it, because he did eventually manage to think of an alternative word. It's fine.Nigelb said:A totally non-Freudian slip...
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1113154561013891072
What is the origin of Trumpton's orange skin?0 -
So all a non-starter then?IanB2 said:@NicolaSturgeon: "Just had a positive meeting with @jeremycorbyn - I’d be surprised and very disappointed if Labour sold out for such a bad deal."
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If they agree something, will May/Corbyn be able to get the numbers to get this through the commons?0
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I wouldn't read too much into that from Sturgeon.kle4 said:
So all a non-starter then?IanB2 said:@NicolaSturgeon: "Just had a positive meeting with @jeremycorbyn - I’d be surprised and very disappointed if Labour sold out for such a bad deal."
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It is interesting to see the tone Guido Fawkes is still taking on this, given how tub thumping it usually is. He was explicitly a reluctant deal supporter despite not really fearing no deal but thinking parliament would not like it, but seems more wearied than incandescent about May’s actions than, say, the ERG. And his post on that NI poll seems to me very much like he thinks the DUP have been the main problem, even if they are right.0
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Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
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He’ll always be Penfold to me, with Peter Griffin a close secondPulpstar said:
Stay Puft is huge, he's more like Slimer I think.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think Mark Francois looks a little more like Mr Stay Puft from GhostbustersTOPPING said:
I think not in his wildest dreams did he think that, Jurassic Park-like, that all those fossils would come back to life.williamglenn said:
Cameron seemed to think modernisation meant promoting ERG-type nutters in a quid-pro-quo for giving him leeway on the social issues. The state of the party now is the culmination of Cameron's strategy.Richard_Nabavi said:
At our recent Conservative constituency AGM a new chairman was appointed, who I think will make considerable efforts to try to encourage younger people to join the party. But as a very senior member said to me afterwards: "Anyone under 50 who'd heard tonight's discussion would run a mile.'IanB2 said:The biggest obstacle to the future of the Conservative Party is that they don’t appeal to the young, he says. For the Party, “young” is now “below 47”. “We need to find new voters,” he says.
We have a big, big problem, and as Sam Gyimah says, we've gone a long way backwards since the Cameron days.0 -
The clue is in the name May/Corbyn talks.IanB2 said:@theSNP @LibDems @TheGreenParty @LSRPlaid and @TheIndGroup Westminster leaders - excluded from May/Corbyn talks - will all gather just before 4pm to make a joint statement in Commons
Not that I disagree that everyone should be spoken to now, but let’s be honest they are all going to just moan and demand a PV, they would not compromise on that an inch so what would be the point? Corbyn and May probably wont either but have the possibility of shifting a bit.0 -
Hope you told the emergency walk in clinic to, er, pull their finger out.....Cyclefree said:Off topic, if any of you plan on any gardening remember to use gloves, especially if you are tying in your roses or repotting cacti, as I was this weekend.
I never do - I like the feel of soil etc - but for my pains I now have arms full of scratches and a swollen blue infected finger which has necessitated a very long wait at the emergency walk in clinic.
Still no finger wagging by me for a while.....0 -
Doubtless they'll demand whatever May and Corbyn "cook up" is "put back to the people".kle4 said:
The clue is in the name May/Corbyn talks.IanB2 said:@theSNP @LibDems @TheGreenParty @LSRPlaid and @TheIndGroup Westminster leaders - excluded from May/Corbyn talks - will all gather just before 4pm to make a joint statement in Commons
Not that I disagree that everyone should be spoken to now, but let’s be honest they are all going to just moan and demand a PV, they would not compromise on that an inch so what would be the point? Corbyn and May probably wont either but have the possibility of shifting a bit.0 -
Mmmmm. Prime mince.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Leavers are thick as mince argument regularly cite Dan Hannan as prime example.Pulpstar said:How on earth did Hannan think his Brexit vision was going to come about when the entire leave campaign was based almost entirely on immigration ?
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I like to think he probably still has a massive stash of Sunny D, which he consumes gallons of a day....._Anazina_ said:Chris said:
I think he nearly got it right the third time. Anyway, he hasn't totally lost it, because he did eventually manage to think of an alternative word. It's fine.Nigelb said:A totally non-Freudian slip...
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1113154561013891072
What is the origin of Trumpton's orange skin?0 -
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
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Err, I don't think that 17.4 million people were inside the Tory party, but apart from that, a party leader does have to take account of what the party wants.williamglenn said:The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party...
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No. I hate wasting GPs time with something so trivial. I tend to ignore all pain or illness until the last possible minute, which may explain why I so often end up in hospitalMarqueeMark said:
Hope you told the emergency walk in clinic to, er, pull their finger out.....Cyclefree said:Off topic, if any of you plan on any gardening remember to use gloves, especially if you are tying in your roses or repotting cacti, as I was this weekend.
I never do - I like the feel of soil etc - but for my pains I now have arms full of scratches and a swollen blue infected finger which has necessitated a very long wait at the emergency walk in clinic.
Still no finger wagging by me for a while.....
But chemist took one look at it and sent me to doc. I had a very good book with me to while away the time - Mr Darley's Arabian which is an irresistible combination of horses, history and scoundrels. My ideal book really.😁0 -
But if there were to be a deal cooked up by May and Corbyn, both supporting it in a public vote, you'd think the people wouldn't be ornery enough to STILL vote it down? Would they?Pulpstar said:
Doubtless they'll demand whatever May and Corbyn "cook up" is "put back to the people".kle4 said:
The clue is in the name May/Corbyn talks.IanB2 said:@theSNP @LibDems @TheGreenParty @LSRPlaid and @TheIndGroup Westminster leaders - excluded from May/Corbyn talks - will all gather just before 4pm to make a joint statement in Commons
Not that I disagree that everyone should be spoken to now, but let’s be honest they are all going to just moan and demand a PV, they would not compromise on that an inch so what would be the point? Corbyn and May probably wont either but have the possibility of shifting a bit.0 -
That misses the point somewhat. How many of them deeply cared one way or the other before the referendum campaign?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, I don't think that 17.4 million people were inside the Tory party.williamglenn said:The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party...
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You'd have loved my step-father.....Cyclefree said:I had a very good book with me - Mr Darley's Arabian which is an irresistible combination of horses, history and scoundrels. My ideal book really.😁
One of his wedding presents when he married my mother was the name of a horse in a fixed race. Came in at 20/1. Paid for their honeymoon.
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Thats not outside the realm of possibility...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The fear of such is why neither will take the chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
So you disregard their view because they were not hugely engaged until asked?williamglenn said:
That misses the point somewhat. How many of them deeply cared one way or the other before the referendum campaign?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, I don't think that 17.4 million people were inside the Tory party.williamglenn said:The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party...
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Good Lord did May really have to bring up Salisbury just before going into talks with Corbyn ?!0
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I’m extremely sceptical that Corbyn is in any way serious about reaching a Deal.Sean_F said:I don't think TIG would want an early election.
Just reading that Corbyn will demand a Customs Union. alignment on workers rights, but won't demand F o M, a second referendum, or taking part in Euro elections.
Is that a runner?0 -
I think Remain would have won comfortably, if not for the refugee crisis, and Merkel's response. Losing wasn't really foreseeable in 2015. Following Lisbon, offering a referendum was Cameron's best path to a majority, otherwise he faced watching Ukip slowly gutting his party.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
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I didn't say that either. My argument is just that arriving at a point where 17.4m people voted to leave the EU is not unconnected from decisions made by David Cameron in the 10 years before that, and wasn't just a good plan that went unexpectedly wrong.kle4 said:
The fear of such is why neither will take the chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
So you disregard their view because they were not hugely engaged until asked?williamglenn said:
That misses the point somewhat. How many of them deeply cared one way or the other before the referendum campaign?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, I don't think that 17.4 million people were inside the Tory party.williamglenn said:The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party...
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I’m a straightforward guyNigelb said:The Guardian is trying to trigger Charles today..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/shortcuts/2019/apr/03/how-to-blag-your-way-into-first-class-with-a-standard-train-ticket
Someone offers a different product at different prices. If you pay for one product and then take the other that’s theft. It doesn’t matter if it’s paying for an apple and walking off with an avocado or paying for a VW Polo and driving away in a Ferrari. If even paying for standard class and travelling first
You take something without paying its theft. Black and white really.
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Mr. Pulpstar, as in the Salisbury Convention?
Or Corbyn's moronic view of the chemical weapons attack, when he preferred the view of the Russian state to that of the British?0 -
Okwilliamglenn said:
I didn't say that either. My argument is just that arriving at a point where 17.4m people voted to leave the EU is not unconnected from decisions made by David Cameron in the 10 years before that, and wasn't just a good plan that went unexpectedly wrong.kle4 said:
The fear of such is why neither will take the chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
So you disregard their view because they were not hugely engaged until asked?williamglenn said:
That misses the point somewhat. How many of them deeply cared one way or the other before the referendum campaign?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, I don't think that 17.4 million people were inside the Tory party.williamglenn said:The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party...
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That’s possible.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’d say 120 Tory rebels and c.100 Labour rebels is more likely.0 -
I'm currently assuming that if the agreement includes a public vote, it will be on the basis of a compromise that allows Corbyn to campaign against it, which will allow him to both oppose a Tory Brexit and give the impression of being pro Remain.MarqueeMark said:
But if there were to be a deal cooked up by May and Corbyn, both supporting it in a public vote, you'd think the people wouldn't be ornery enough to STILL vote it down? Would they?Pulpstar said:
Doubtless they'll demand whatever May and Corbyn "cook up" is "put back to the people".kle4 said:
The clue is in the name May/Corbyn talks.IanB2 said:@theSNP @LibDems @TheGreenParty @LSRPlaid and @TheIndGroup Westminster leaders - excluded from May/Corbyn talks - will all gather just before 4pm to make a joint statement in Commons
Not that I disagree that everyone should be spoken to now, but let’s be honest they are all going to just moan and demand a PV, they would not compromise on that an inch so what would be the point? Corbyn and May probably wont either but have the possibility of shifting a bit.0 -
Precisely. Cameron shied away from taking on the nutters himself and tried to get the electorate to do it for him. It was an act of cowardice as well as a disastrous political misjudgment which could yet end up ruining both his country and his party.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
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I think in that scenario we could be looking at an accidental crash-out at short notice, so it wouldn't exactly be a comedy outcome. The only good thing about it would be that Labour would cop some of the blame.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
We all know Corbyn has some terrible views. Nevertheless May is trying to do a deal with him over Brexit. Playing to the gallery isn't really conducive to that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, as in the Salisbury Convention?
Or Corbyn's moronic view of the chemical weapons attack, when he preferred the view of the Russian state to that of the British?0 -
Ignoring euroscepticism wholesale wasn’t an option for the Conservative Party in the same way the Labour Party couldn’t ignore Celtic nationalism when it took office.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
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Only if you think EU membership is both a good thing.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
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I take that sort of comment from you as being a recommendation.Charles said:
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What utter tosh. What the hell do you think he was doing in the referendum campaign if not 'taking on the nutters himself'? He could have done with a bit of help from those, especially in Labour, who did virtually nothing or who actively obstructed the Remain campaign, but who now have the gall to criticise Cameron for not doing enough.anothernick said:
Precisely. Cameron shied away from taking on the nutters himself and tried to get the electorate to do it for him. It was an act of cowardice as well as a disastrous political misjudgment which could yet end up ruining both his country and his party.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
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He’s a big boy, he can handle it. If both want a deal one can be found even if he walks into the meeting and calls her an idiot for insulting him just now.Pulpstar said:
We all know Corbyn has some terrible views. Nevertheless May is trying to do a deal with him over Brexit. Playing to the gallery isn't really conducive to that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, as in the Salisbury Convention?
Or Corbyn's moronic view of the chemical weapons attack, when he preferred the view of the Russian state to that of the British?
0 -
What if you pay for guacamole and walk off with mushy peas?Charles said:
I’m a straightforward guyNigelb said:The Guardian is trying to trigger Charles today..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/shortcuts/2019/apr/03/how-to-blag-your-way-into-first-class-with-a-standard-train-ticket
Someone offers a different product at different prices. If you pay for one product and then take the other that’s theft. It doesn’t matter if it’s paying for an apple and walking off with an avocado or paying for a VW Polo and driving away in a Ferrari. If even paying for standard class and travelling first
You take something without paying its theft. Black and white really.0 -
It will keep the pressure on Labour over the PV, as many of its own MPs are doing on Twitter and elsewhere.kle4 said:
The clue is in the name May/Corbyn talks.IanB2 said:@theSNP @LibDems @TheGreenParty @LSRPlaid and @TheIndGroup Westminster leaders - excluded from May/Corbyn talks - will all gather just before 4pm to make a joint statement in Commons
Not that I disagree that everyone should be spoken to now, but let’s be honest they are all going to just moan and demand a PV, they would not compromise on that an inch so what would be the point? Corbyn and May probably wont either but have the possibility of shifting a bit.0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
It even affected the Labour Party to the extent Ed Miliband had to say something about it in his 2015 manifesto:
“Our reforms will help deliver a Europe focused on jobs and growth, not simply more austerity and rising unemployment. Labour will focus on the completion of the single market and tougher budget discipline, including on those items where spending at the EU level can save money at the national level. That means driving reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and a Commission-led zero-based review of spending on EU agencies to reduce waste and inefficiency. We will not join the Euro, and we will ensure EU rules protect the interests of non-Euro members.”
“We will work to strengthen the influence national parliaments over European legislation, by arguing for a ‘red-card mechanism’ for member states, providing greater parliamentary scrutiny.”
Ignoring euroscepticism simply isn’t an option in the British political system, in the same way it is in France or Germany.0 -
Yup. Everyone's a winner in that situation.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think in that scenario we could be looking at an accidental crash-out at short notice, so it wouldn't exactly be a comedy outcome. The only good thing about it would be that Labour would cop some of the blame.TheScreamingEagles said:
No Dealers and the ERG will have their credibility ruined for a generation as the reality of No Deal hits the voters.
We'd sue for peace with the EU and get a very softish Brexit.
A few weeks of short term pain for long term gain.0 -
The rise of the sausage smugglers....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6882175/The-EU-force-Brit-holidaymakers-hand-foods-like-pasties-ham-No-Deal-Brexit.html0 -
6 years after being Prime Minister and months away from a referendum he decided it might be a good idea to say that being in the EU wasn't as terrible as he'd previously indicated, and you'd be an idiot if you concluded from his previous position that leaving might be better.Richard_Nabavi said:
What utter tosh. What the hell do you think he was doing in the referendum campaign if not 'taking on the nutters himself'? He could have done with a bit of help from those, especially in Labour, who did virtually nothing or who actively obstructed the Remain campaign, but who now have the gall to criticise Cameron for not doing enough.anothernick said:
Precisely. Cameron shied away from taking on the nutters himself and tried to get the electorate to do it for him. It was an act of cowardice as well as a disastrous political misjudgment which could yet end up ruining both his country and his party.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
0 -
Ye he's got the hide of a rhino so it won't bother him. But going for something like his plans would have us drowning in debt would have been better - it'd allow him to pump out one of those "austerity" tweets.kle4 said:
He’s a big boy, he can handle it. If both want a deal one can be found even if he walks into the meeting and calls her an idiot for insulting him just now.Pulpstar said:
We all know Corbyn has some terrible views. Nevertheless May is trying to do a deal with him over Brexit. Playing to the gallery isn't really conducive to that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, as in the Salisbury Convention?
Or Corbyn's moronic view of the chemical weapons attack, when he preferred the view of the Russian state to that of the British?0 -
He should have taken them on within the party. As Blair did with the Labour left in the 1990s. If he had done that in 2005 they would have folded quite easily.Richard_Nabavi said:
What utter tosh. What the hell do you think he was doing in the referendum campaign if not 'taking on the nutters himself'? He could have done with a bit of help from those, especially in Labour, who did virtually nothing or who actively obstructed the Remain campaign, but who now have the gall to criticise Cameron for not doing enough.anothernick said:
Precisely. Cameron shied away from taking on the nutters himself and tried to get the electorate to do it for him. It was an act of cowardice as well as a disastrous political misjudgment which could yet end up ruining both his country and his party.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
0 -
Where is TSE when you need him to explain this mysterious voting mechanism.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
-
0
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But it was blue on blue from the start. And it was Cameron who ordered the Remain campaign to go softly on the likes of Boris and Gove, not wanting to exacerbate his problems when Remain cruised to victory.Richard_Nabavi said:
What utter tosh. What the hell do you think he was doing in the referendum campaign if not 'taking on the nutters himself'? He could have done with a bit of help from those, especially in Labour, who did virtually nothing or who actively obstructed the Remain campaign, but who now have the gall to criticise Cameron for not doing enough.anothernick said:
Precisely. Cameron shied away from taking on the nutters himself and tried to get the electorate to do it for him. It was an act of cowardice as well as a disastrous political misjudgment which could yet end up ruining both his country and his party.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
0 -
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I must have imagined the comments about 'fruitcakes and loons' and 'not banging on about Europe', or missed some massive passage from his famous 2005 speech which clinched the leadership:anothernick said:
He should have taken them on within the party. As Blair did with the Labour left in the 1990s. If he had done that in 2005 they would have folded quite easily.Richard_Nabavi said:
What utter tosh. What the hell do you think he was doing in the referendum campaign if not 'taking on the nutters himself'? He could have done with a bit of help from those, especially in Labour, who did virtually nothing or who actively obstructed the Remain campaign, but who now have the gall to criticise Cameron for not doing enough.anothernick said:
Precisely. Cameron shied away from taking on the nutters himself and tried to get the electorate to do it for him. It was an act of cowardice as well as a disastrous political misjudgment which could yet end up ruining both his country and his party.williamglenn said:
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.williamglenn said:You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/oct/04/conservatives2005.conservatives3
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Big risk for the EU is that Uk suppliers find other sources and never go back.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Everyone's a winner in that situation.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think in that scenario we could be looking at an accidental crash-out at short notice, so it wouldn't exactly be a comedy outcome. The only good thing about it would be that Labour would cop some of the blame.TheScreamingEagles said:
No Dealers and the ERG will have their credibility ruined for a generation as the reality of No Deal hits the voters.
We'd sue for peace with the EU and get a very softish Brexit.
A few weeks of short term pain for long term gain.
Big risk for the EU is that any punishment queues at Calais are dished out to Irish trucks too.
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Then you are Peter Mandelson and I claim my £5TOPPING said:
What if you pay for guacamole and walk off with mushy peas?Charles said:
I’m a straightforward guyNigelb said:The Guardian is trying to trigger Charles today..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/shortcuts/2019/apr/03/how-to-blag-your-way-into-first-class-with-a-standard-train-ticket
Someone offers a different product at different prices. If you pay for one product and then take the other that’s theft. It doesn’t matter if it’s paying for an apple and walking off with an avocado or paying for a VW Polo and driving away in a Ferrari. If even paying for standard class and travelling first
You take something without paying its theft. Black and white really.0 -
Mr. P, is the lady to Umunna's right from Plaid Cymru?0
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https://twitter.com/chhcalling/status/1113456229232381953 getting messy again.0
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Yes, that was an error in retrospect. But it was a very honourable one - he wanted to be able to reunite the party and the country after the expected Remain victory.IanB2 said:But it was blue on blue from the start. And it was Cameron who ordered the Remain campaign to go softly on the likes of Boris and Gove, not wanting to exacerbate his problems when Remain cruised to victory.
Alas, it didn't turn out that way.0 -
Might it be shades of grey where you intend to pay to upgrade to first if asked - but in the knowledge that more times than not, there won't be anybody that checks the tickets? (Not that I use the train - always drive up to London....)Charles said:
I’m a straightforward guyNigelb said:The Guardian is trying to trigger Charles today..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/shortcuts/2019/apr/03/how-to-blag-your-way-into-first-class-with-a-standard-train-ticket
Someone offers a different product at different prices. If you pay for one product and then take the other that’s theft. It doesn’t matter if it’s paying for an apple and walking off with an avocado or paying for a VW Polo and driving away in a Ferrari. If even paying for standard class and travelling first
You take something without paying its theft. Black and white really.0 -
From the everything-Liam-Fox-touches-turns-to-shit department:
"The head of the watchdog tasked with protecting Britain from unfair global trading practices after Brexit has quit after less than six months, dealing a blow to government plans to expand world trade after leaving the EU."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/03/blow-to-uk-global-trade-as-new-watchdog-chief-quits-liam-fox0 -
Mr. B2, most of us did expect an easy Remain win. Cameron's assumption was wrong but he was in the majority expecting that result.0
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Read this and weep at what we've lost:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/oct/04/conservatives2006.conservatives
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When "the reality of No Deal hits the voters" we should recall all ERG MPs, in fact all who voted for No Deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Everyone's a winner in that situation.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think in that scenario we could be looking at an accidental crash-out at short notice, so it wouldn't exactly be a comedy outcome. The only good thing about it would be that Labour would cop some of the blame.TheScreamingEagles said:
No Dealers and the ERG will have their credibility ruined for a generation as the reality of No Deal hits the voters.
We'd sue for peace with the EU and get a very softish Brexit.
A few weeks of short term pain for long term gain.0 -
Isn’t that the same as people going on the train without any ticket at all hoping that they don’t see an inspector? Bloody leeches.MarqueeMark said:
Might it be shades of grey where you intend to pay to upgrade to first if asked - but in the knowledge that more times than not, there won't be anybody that checks the tickets? (Not that I use the train - always drive up to London....)Charles said:
I’m a straightforward guyNigelb said:The Guardian is trying to trigger Charles today..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/shortcuts/2019/apr/03/how-to-blag-your-way-into-first-class-with-a-standard-train-ticket
Someone offers a different product at different prices. If you pay for one product and then take the other that’s theft. It doesn’t matter if it’s paying for an apple and walking off with an avocado or paying for a VW Polo and driving away in a Ferrari. If even paying for standard class and travelling first
You take something without paying its theft. Black and white really.0 -
Not really...MarqueeMark said:
Might it be shades of grey where you intend to pay to upgrade to first if asked - but in the knowledge that more times than not, there won't be anybody that checks the tickets? (Not that I use the train - always drive up to London....)Charles said:
I’m a straightforward guyNigelb said:The Guardian is trying to trigger Charles today..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/shortcuts/2019/apr/03/how-to-blag-your-way-into-first-class-with-a-standard-train-ticket
Someone offers a different product at different prices. If you pay for one product and then take the other that’s theft. It doesn’t matter if it’s paying for an apple and walking off with an avocado or paying for a VW Polo and driving away in a Ferrari. If even paying for standard class and travelling first
You take something without paying its theft. Black and white really.0 -
She's to the right of Umunna. But on Umunna's left. And yes, that's Liz Saville Roberts, PC Westminster leader.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, is the lady to Umunna's right from Plaid Cymru?
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Meanwhile, in comedy French news:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-478004180
This discussion has been closed.