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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why punters have got it right making a 2019 general election a

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    A surprising number! often as treats for expats.

    When we lived in Georgia, my granny tried to bring us some proper sausages. US customs were not sympathetic.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kle4 said:

    Could be worse, although frankly we heard words of a not totally dissimilar nature every time the DUP sat down to confirm they were still a no.
    If they can strike a deal that 60% or so of their MP's can back, then it will pass.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    A surprising number! often as treats for expats.

    When we lived in Georgia, my granny tried to bring us some proper sausages. US customs were not sympathetic.
    Essential to bring tea, unless you want to drink that disgusting Liptons stuff.......
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    _Anazina_ said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    My mother once tried to smuggle two packets of biscuits into the United States, then unwisely tried to argue with the customs official when he confiscated them.
    I suppose the important questions is...what type of biscuits? Some would be worth arguing for more than others!
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting that the two resignations so far are not from the ERG wing of the Tory Party.

    They both seem to be very much "middle of the road" Tories?
    Heaton-Harris is a former Chairman of the ERG!

    Edit - He was Chairman between 2010-16.

    Middle of the road my arse.
    He’s the McCarthy of the ERG.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/24/universities-mccarthyism-mp-demands-list-brexit-chris-heaton-harris
    They always try making out they are middle of the road Tories when they are not. Mike Penning tried the same rouse saying he was middle of the road on Europe when he had been the whipless Tories spokesperson in the 1990s. Middle of the road my arse!
    CHH is probably close to the median Conservative voter.
    Based on what evidence?
    Based on the polling which suggest:-

    1. 70-75% of Conservatives want to Leave the EU
    2. 60% now support May's Deal.

    Pro-EU Conservatives are now untypical, but most are not fanatics like Francois and Cope.
    I think you have to delineate between those who see Europe as the most important issue in their life (Bill Cash) and those who frankly give much less of a ****
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    _Anazina_ said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    My mother once tried to smuggle two packets of biscuits into the United States, then unwisely tried to argue with the customs official when he confiscated them.
    I suppose the important questions is...what type of biscuits? Some would be worth arguing for more than others!
    You'll take my chocolate hobnobs when you take my life!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    A surprising number! often as treats for expats.

    When we lived in Georgia, my granny tried to bring us some proper sausages. US customs were not sympathetic.
    Essential to bring tea, unless you want to drink that disgusting Liptons stuff.......
    Cheese! must have proper cheese...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Gotta say Jezza missed a trick not getting a "money shot" of himself outside Downing St looking like the PM in waiting.

    Labour's media operation leaves a lot to be desired...
  • Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    A surprising number! often as treats for expats.

    When we lived in Georgia, my granny tried to bring us some proper sausages. US customs were not sympathetic.
    Essential to bring tea, unless you want to drink that disgusting Liptons stuff.......
    Cadbury's chocolate and Zovirax - fetch a fortune on the black market.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081

    You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.

    Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.
    Very late to the thread, but are we expecting, then, that a more-or-less complete reversal of the 2016 result is going to result in all that huge opposition withering away? Isn't it more likely that it will just be submerged again until something (a successful partition for Scotland, say) brings it all out again?

    Good evening, everyone.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    Its bound to be another straight banana story!
    To be fair there are usually rules on taking good products into other countries. I’m surprised that loads of people are carrying sacks if Cornish pasties
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Bet Bercow casts his decider for the motion if it comes to that.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Rumours of a tie in the Benn ammendment.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    _Anazina_ said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    My mother once tried to smuggle two packets of biscuits into the United States, then unwisely tried to argue with the customs official when he confiscated them.
    Lincoln biscuits I hope
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    A surprising number! often as treats for expats.

    When we lived in Georgia, my granny tried to bring us some proper sausages. US customs were not sympathetic.
    Essential to bring tea, unless you want to drink that disgusting Liptons stuff.......
    Cheese! must have proper cheese...
    You mean like Good Brie?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    That's exciting.

    The Speaker has the casting vote.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    A surprising number! often as treats for expats.

    When we lived in Georgia, my granny tried to bring us some proper sausages. US customs were not sympathetic.
    Of course not. Meat products are always verboten.

    Jaffa cakes, chocolates and twinings tea always get through...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Bet Bercow casts his decider for the motion if it comes to that.

    That would probably be the correct thing to do, since the convention is that the Speaker should vote in favour of allowing further discussion and avoid closing off options.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Bet Bercow casts his decider for the motion if it comes to that.

    Hopefully, poke the Tories in the eye yet again, revenge must be very sweet for him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Rumours the Benn amendment division has led to a tie
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.

    No impact from a hard brexit.

    That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
    Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
    I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
    Wait until the pasty transportation issue hits:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
    How many people take food on holiday?
    A surprising number! often as treats for expats.

    When we lived in Georgia, my granny tried to bring us some proper sausages. US customs were not sympathetic.
    Yes, very common among expat communities - except those from the UK, USA and Australia!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Nicola Sturgeon cautions against doing things in a rush.

    ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL ROTFL
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    310 to 310
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Rumours of a tie in the Benn ammendment.

    How do I option the author for my next TV miniseries?

    🤣
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Tough choice for Bercow, which causes most damage to the Tories?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Holy hell... who's writing this script...
  • Bercow correct
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    310 to 310

    Bercow says No
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    Bet Bercow casts his decider for the motion if it comes to that.

    That would probably be the correct thing to do, since the convention is that the Speaker should vote in favour of allowing further discussion and avoid closing off options.
    But this is an amendment to the motion, not the motion itself. He shouldn’t have a decider. If not passed, the amendment falls surely. That’ll be what they are working through I guess.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    Benn cross-party amendment (providing time for MP-led indicative votes on Monday) falls 310 v 310 on Speakers casting vote.

    Now onto a division on the substantive Programme Motion as not amended. Sensible MPs in all parties v Tory Brexiters.
  • Andrew said:

    Tough choice for Bercow, which causes most damage to the Tories?

    He acted correctly
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Holy Hell.....Bercow forced to vote it down.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    Long extension looks nailed on, because it enables enough waverers to punt any decision further down the field. May is desperate for a deal to pass right now, and is clearly willing to pay a big price to do so, but there may not be enough willing to name their price for that.

    Yes, she just HAS to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed. If she can do that, under whatever circumstances, she has a legacy. She will have delivered Brexit. If she fails she will have nothing, nothing at all, to show for her premiership. That must hurt deeply on a personal level, and is there any other level apart from the personal when all is said and done? Not really.

    Corbyn is thus in an enormously powerful position right now, something which I am sure he realizes. The trouble is, Labour's Brexit policy is essentially the same as hers, therefore simply getting her to accept that would not be much of a victory. Given his leverage, it would hardly be a victory at all. It would be letting her off the hook.

    So he will surely ask for more than that. Abolition of tuition fees and nationalizing the trains springs to mind. That would broaden the debate somewhat and would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons!
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    He went with the noes. Surprised.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Andrew said:

    Tough choice for Bercow, which causes most damage to the Tories?

    Bercow is a Tory.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Bet Bercow casts his decider for the motion if it comes to that.

    That would probably be the correct thing to do, since the convention is that the Speaker should vote in favour of allowing further discussion and avoid closing off options.
    But this is an amendment to the motion, not the motion itself. He shouldn’t have a decider. If not passed, the amendment falls surely. That’ll be what they are working through I guess.
    Arguable either way I guess. This is a VERY unusual circumstance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
  • Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Long extension looks nailed on, because it enables enough waverers to punt any decision further down the field. May is desperate for a deal to pass right now, and is clearly willing to pay a big price to do so, but there may not be enough willing to name their price for that.

    Yes, she just HAS to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed. If she can do that, under whatever circumstances, she has a legacy. She will have delivered Brexit. If she fails she will have nothing, nothing at all, to show for her premiership. That must hurt deeply on a personal level, and is there any other level apart from the personal when all is said and done? Not really.

    Corbyn is thus in an enormously powerful position right now, something which I am sure he realizes. The trouble is, Labour's Brexit policy is essentially the same as hers, therefore simply getting her to accept that would not be much of a victory. Given his leverage, it would hardly be a victory at all. It would be letting her off the hook.

    So he will surely ask for more than that. Abolition of tuition fees and nationalizing the trains springs to mind. That would broaden the debate somewhat and would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons!
    Maybe he'll demand recognition of Palestine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Bercow indicating he will exercise casting vote in favour at second reading but against at final stage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,691
    edited April 2019
    No-one can now say Bercow is biased against Brexit.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Fair decision by Bercow and saves us more IV showboating on Monday .
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    Bet Bercow casts his decider for the motion if it comes to that.

    That would probably be the correct thing to do, since the convention is that the Speaker should vote in favour of allowing further discussion and avoid closing off options.
    But this is an amendment to the motion, not the motion itself. He shouldn’t have a decider. If not passed, the amendment falls surely. That’ll be what they are working through I guess.
    Arguable either way I guess. This is a VERY unusual circumstance.
    His explanation just then was actually reasonable and cogent. I am surprised again.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1113479089216729089

    any screen shots of Bercow's face when the vote was announced?
  • No-one can now say Bercow is biased against Brexit.

    Indeed
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Bet Bercow casts his decider for the motion if it comes to that.

    That would probably be the correct thing to do, since the convention is that the Speaker should vote in favour of allowing further discussion and avoid closing off options.
    But this is an amendment to the motion, not the motion itself. He shouldn’t have a decider. If not passed, the amendment falls surely. That’ll be what they are working through I guess.
    Arguable either way I guess. This is a VERY unusual circumstance.
    His explanation just then was actually reasonable and cogent. I am surprised again.

    Yes, it seemed fair enough.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    Sean_F said:

    Maybe he'll demand recognition of Palestine.

    Now you're talking!

    And possibly a network of State Banks, one in each town serving the local community.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    No-one can now say Bercow is biased against Brexit.

    Well they probably could, he just picked a relatively easy battle to take the opposite side for a change.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:
    The rule says he votes against amendments to bills - assume he treated a motion in the same way
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    Under FPTP revoking Article 50 or 2nd ref and Remain could actually be suicide for Labour given most Tory and Labour marginal seats voted Leave and Labour Remain voters tend to be concentrated in ultra safe inner city seats.

    In any case Deltapoll at the weekend had both Tory and Labour voters backing the Deal plus Customs Union even if Tory voters backed it less than No Deal and Labour voters backed it less than revoke or EUref2
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    Total opposition to Brexit would please lots of people on the left, but would also keep right wing voters and the DUP on board with the Tories. Passing the WA with conditions could break them up.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Long extension looks nailed on, because it enables enough waverers to punt any decision further down the field. May is desperate for a deal to pass right now, and is clearly willing to pay a big price to do so, but there may not be enough willing to name their price for that.

    Yes, she just HAS to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed. If she can do that, under whatever circumstances, she has a legacy. She will have delivered Brexit. If she fails she will have nothing, nothing at all, to show for her premiership. That must hurt deeply on a personal level, and is there any other level apart from the personal when all is said and done? Not really.
    I really don't buy into the idea that May is now desperate to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed. She just needs for it not to be obviously her fault that we head into the European elections.

    If at the end of this we never leave, May will have pulled off a seemingly impossible political feat, which even if it was not her intention, will make her one of the most noteworthy PMs in history.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Division on business motion
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    Government can still go there; Parliament cannot

    Important because government controls the agenda
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Brilliant decision by Bercow, he really has come into his own recently. An excellent speaker , almost getting to the level of the best , Lord Tonypandy. He will never get there but doing a great job.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    There’s no controversy Bercow was correct and the IVs wouldn’t go anywhere anyway .

    You win some you lose some Remainers need to respect his decision and I’m a Remainer!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Maybe he'll demand recognition of Palestine.

    Now you're talking!

    And possibly a network of State Banks, one in each town serving the local community.
    Like the Post Office bank?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187

    Of course it is. If the Commons does not, between now and next Tuesday, vote either (a) to pass the Deal or (b) find a sustainable majority for a softer form of Brexit that the EU27 would be interested in negotiating, then the only options left will then be Hard Brexit or Revocation.

    Time is all but up, and there's still no sign of a Parliamentary majority for any solution.
    It will likely be Deal plus Customs Union now or we contest the European Parliament elections and stay in the EU indefinitely.

    May has made clear now she will not allow No Deal unless the Commons votes for it and the EU will want to avoid No Deal unless the UK decides to pursue it
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    edited April 2019

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    It will be interesting to compare votes on the Benn amendment with the previous amendment on holding the IVs, to see who has switched or abstained.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    It's a very strange situation because this isn't a government motion. You could argue that Sir Oliver Letwin is playing the normal role of the government, and I believe he accepted the Benn amendment. So perhaps that would suggest that Bercow should have voted for it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    MPs can amend Mays indicative votes on Monday anyway .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
    I would expect a PV could still be moved as an amendment to the eventual motion. And that assumes Corbyn is willing to take the risk of dropping it in any agreement with May. Which would be *brave*.

    The rumours are in any case that May is willing to put Revoke on the table.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:
    The rule says he votes against amendments to bills - assume he treated a motion in the same way
    Yes , great decision
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
    Of course it's Benn from Labour and Letwin from the Conservatives who are the main driving force behind the indicative votes.

    The IV process was the right thing to try but they screwed it up by not having a process to produce a more decisive result in the second round of them. They missed their shot, essentially.
  • Two SNP politicians are locked in an “abuse” battle on Twitter after making tit-for-tat complaints about each other in a row over transgender rights.

    Gregor Murray, a councillor in Dundee, told Joan McAlpine, the chairwoman of Holyrood’s equalities committee, that she “lacks the necessary brain cells” to be an MSP.

    Ms McAlpine, 57, has launched an internal party grievance against the councillor, who objects to being referred to with the pronoun “he” and claims to have been made to feel “unwelcome” in the SNP by the MSP.

    Mr Murray, who is Scotland’s only transgender councillor, has sent a litany of foul-mouthed tweets to critics online. In one, he said: “No one is erasing lesbians. These are TERFs [trans-exclusionary radical feminists], literally stopping LGBTI progress, to protest something that only exists in their head. They’re making us feel unwelcome at Pride. Horrific. Utter c****.” Another said: “Where’s YOUR f****** solidarity, you transphobic b******?” A third said: “Get to f*** with your mediaeval views, you horrible bigot.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/joan-mcalpine-msp-complains-of-abuse-by-councillor-gregor-murray-in-transgender-row-dpzxh89m5
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    I completely agree with you. JC's best chance of power is a PRE Brexit election where Labour offer REF2 and surf in on a tide of Remainer sentiment. Vote Labour. Stop Brexit. That wins.

    I think they lose a post Brexit election, assuming the Tories pull themselves together.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
    SNP dreams alive and well G, referendum still on the cards
  • IanB2 said:

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
    I would expect a PV could still be moved as an amendment to the eventual motion. And that assumes Corbyn is willing to take the risk of dropping it in any agreement with May. Which would be *brave*.
    Looks like brave may happen
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
    Of course it's Benn from Labour and Letwin from the Conservatives who are the main driving force behind the indicative votes.

    The IV process was the right thing to try but they screwed it up by not having a process to produce a more decisive result in the second round of them. They missed their shot, essentially.
    Letwin might have spoken to Benn to incorporate his amendment into the Business Motion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    kinabalu said:

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    I completely agree with you. JC's best chance of power is a PRE Brexit election where Labour offer REF2 and surf in on a tide of Remainer sentiment. Vote Labour. Stop Brexit. That wins.

    I think they lose a post Brexit election, assuming the Tories pull themselves together.
    Except most marginal seats voted Leave not Remain.

    If they do it will be reliant on the SNP
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Scott_P said:
    will even radio waves get stuck in the queue on the M20.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    I completely agree with you. JC's best chance of power is a PRE Brexit election where Labour offer REF2 and surf in on a tide of Remainer sentiment. Vote Labour. Stop Brexit. That wins.

    I think they lose a post Brexit election, assuming the Tories pull themselves together.
    Except most marginal seats voted Leave not Remain.

    If they do it will be reliant on the SNP
    Not any more.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If May and Corbyn weren’t having talks the IV vote would have gone through .

    Bercow has been completely fair on this issue .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I suppose it makes sense that we wouldn't get through this whole parliamentary mess without an actual tie to consider. I'm not opposed to IVs, but Bercow gace a clear reason for his decision.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
    thanks. and to IanB2 also.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    I completely agree with you. JC's best chance of power is a PRE Brexit election where Labour offer REF2 and surf in on a tide of Remainer sentiment. Vote Labour. Stop Brexit. That wins.

    I think they lose a post Brexit election, assuming the Tories pull themselves together.
    Except most marginal seats voted Leave not Remain.

    If they do it will be reliant on the SNP
    Not any more.
    Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority without the SNP
  • malcolmg said:

    I thought May wanted indicative votes on Monday in case she and Jez couldnt come up with something. or does she not want them controlled by backbenchers.

    It was a big moment as the backbenchers cannot put forward their indicative votes including a referendum or revoke. The look on the faces of the TIGS and SNP said it all as they see their dreams disappear
    SNP dreams alive and well G, referendum still on the cards
    I know you hope for it Malc, but after all this chaos not sure your fellow Scots will want to go down that route again in the near future.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Two SNP politicians are locked in an “abuse” battle on Twitter after making tit-for-tat complaints about each other in a row over transgender rights.

    Gregor Murray, a councillor in Dundee, told Joan McAlpine, the chairwoman of Holyrood’s equalities committee, that she “lacks the necessary brain cells” to be an MSP.

    Ms McAlpine, 57, has launched an internal party grievance against the councillor, who objects to being referred to with the pronoun “he” and claims to have been made to feel “unwelcome” in the SNP by the MSP.

    Mr Murray, who is Scotland’s only transgender councillor, has sent a litany of foul-mouthed tweets to critics online. In one, he said: “No one is erasing lesbians. These are TERFs [trans-exclusionary radical feminists], literally stopping LGBTI progress, to protest something that only exists in their head. They’re making us feel unwelcome at Pride. Horrific. Utter c****.” Another said: “Where’s YOUR f****** solidarity, you transphobic b******?” A third said: “Get to f*** with your mediaeval views, you horrible bigot.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/joan-mcalpine-msp-complains-of-abuse-by-councillor-gregor-murray-in-transgender-row-dpzxh89m5

    Murray sounds like a candidate for a free transfer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    I completely agree with you. JC's best chance of power is a PRE Brexit election where Labour offer REF2 and surf in on a tide of Remainer sentiment. Vote Labour. Stop Brexit. That wins.

    I think they lose a post Brexit election, assuming the Tories pull themselves together.
    Except most marginal seats voted Leave not Remain.

    If they do it will be reliant on the SNP
    Not any more.
    Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority without the SNP
    Not any more are most marginal seats Leave.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Two SNP politicians are locked in an “abuse” battle on Twitter after making tit-for-tat complaints about each other in a row over transgender rights.

    Trans - it's the way to go.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piFQ4AZHosI
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited April 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Looking at the talks between May and Corbyn today from the Labour side, does anyone else think that if Corbyn were to agree a resolution that say had a CU or even a SM commitment attached to it, that it would be electoral suicide for Labour. Most metropolitan Labour voters are baying for a 2nd ref and I get the impression that the northern Labour leaver contingent don't think that much of JC anyway and he is far from guaranteed their vote in any outcome at the next election. Tories could get themselves a fresh young credible leader (easier said than done) and call an autumn election and wipe out a lot of Labour seats. I suspect Chukka and Heidi would be smiling though, particularly if they can enter some pacts with LD.

    I completely agree with you. JC's best chance of power is a PRE Brexit election where Labour offer REF2 and surf in on a tide of Remainer sentiment. Vote Labour. Stop Brexit. That wins.

    I think they lose a post Brexit election, assuming the Tories pull themselves together.
    Except most marginal seats voted Leave not Remain.

    If they do it will be reliant on the SNP
    Not any more.
    Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority without the SNP
    Not any more are most marginal seats Leave.
    Wrong, 9/10 Of the most marginal Tory seats from Labour voted Leave.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    Indeed Yougov had Leave with No Deal 2% ahead of Remain this week if the EU refused an extension UK wide with No Deal on 44% and Revoke and Remain on 42%. If an extension was granted beyond April 12th 11% supported that, 40% Leave with No Deal and 36% Remain and revoke Article 50

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/02/what-do-public-think-might-break-brexit-deadlock
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    To avoid a second referendum, EU elections, big delay and ultimately no Brexit, May will have to give Corbyn everything else he asks for.

    Prepare for an Andrex Brexit.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    nico67 said:

    If May and Corbyn weren’t having talks the IV vote would have gone through .

    Bercow has been completely fair on this issue .

    Agree. It is a sensible decision for now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    More union backing for a second referendum.

    https://twitter.com/unisontweets/status/1113475588910735362
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    To avoid a second referendum, EU elections, big delay and ultimately no Brexit, May will have to give Corbyn everything else he asks for.

    Prepare for an Andrex Brexit.

    Andrexit?
  • Sean_F said:

    Two SNP politicians are locked in an “abuse” battle on Twitter after making tit-for-tat complaints about each other in a row over transgender rights.

    Gregor Murray, a councillor in Dundee, told Joan McAlpine, the chairwoman of Holyrood’s equalities committee, that she “lacks the necessary brain cells” to be an MSP.

    Ms McAlpine, 57, has launched an internal party grievance against the councillor, who objects to being referred to with the pronoun “he” and claims to have been made to feel “unwelcome” in the SNP by the MSP.

    Mr Murray, who is Scotland’s only transgender councillor, has sent a litany of foul-mouthed tweets to critics online. In one, he said: “No one is erasing lesbians. These are TERFs [trans-exclusionary radical feminists], literally stopping LGBTI progress, to protest something that only exists in their head. They’re making us feel unwelcome at Pride. Horrific. Utter c****.” Another said: “Where’s YOUR f****** solidarity, you transphobic b******?” A third said: “Get to f*** with your mediaeval views, you horrible bigot.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/joan-mcalpine-msp-complains-of-abuse-by-councillor-gregor-murray-in-transgender-row-dpzxh89m5

    Murray sounds like a candidate for a free transfer.
    They's a right charmer.

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/dundee/862183/dundee-councillor-to-be-hauled-before-watchdog-accused-of-insulting-and-offensive-language-towards-public/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    14 Tories voted for Benn, 9 Labour against.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    To avoid a second referendum, EU elections, big delay and ultimately no Brexit, May will have to give Corbyn everything else he asks for.

    Prepare for an Andrex Brexit.

    If only @Tissue_Price had posted that!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Motion passed by 1!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Two SNP politicians are locked in an “abuse” battle on Twitter after making tit-for-tat complaints about each other in a row over transgender rights.

    Gregor Murray, a councillor in Dundee, told Joan McAlpine, the chairwoman of Holyrood’s equalities committee, that she “lacks the necessary brain cells” to be an MSP.

    Ms McAlpine, 57, has launched an internal party grievance against the councillor, who objects to being referred to with the pronoun “he” and claims to have been made to feel “unwelcome” in the SNP by the MSP.

    Mr Murray, who is Scotland’s only transgender councillor, has sent a litany of foul-mouthed tweets to critics online. In one, he said: “No one is erasing lesbians. These are TERFs [trans-exclusionary radical feminists], literally stopping LGBTI progress, to protest something that only exists in their head. They’re making us feel unwelcome at Pride. Horrific. Utter c****.” Another said: “Where’s YOUR f****** solidarity, you transphobic b******?” A third said: “Get to f*** with your mediaeval views, you horrible bigot.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/joan-mcalpine-msp-complains-of-abuse-by-councillor-gregor-murray-in-transgender-row-dpzxh89m5

    He is an absolute divvy
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    312-311

    not even close
This discussion has been closed.