Mr. B2, most of us did expect an easy Remain win. Cameron's assumption was wrong but he was in the majority expecting that result.
Nevertheless he ought, as a politician, to have fought such a critical contest with everything he has. Even a ward councillor defending their seat knows you don't try and soft pedal to an election.
I see that Hannan is still seen by some as some sort of oracle. A liar and a fool. He sees himself as a Cassandra. He’s not, he’s a Siren. I guess the Telegraph will employ him for ever which is the nearest thing to purgatory.
But it was blue on blue from the start. And it was Cameron who ordered the Remain campaign to go softly on the likes of Boris and Gove, not wanting to exacerbate his problems when Remain cruised to victory.
Yes, that was an error in retrospect. But it was a very honourable one - he wanted to be able to reunite the party and the country after the expected Remain victory.
Alas, it didn't turn out that way.
You don't say?
One of the great ironies of history - had the Remain campaign gone for Boris's jugular, the Tory party might have been saved from the fate that awaits it.
You can't whitewash massive strategic mistakes on the basis that it would have been a great plan if only the electorate had played along.
Nor can you use the benefit of hindsight to call it a 'massive strategic mistake'. I'm not even sure that there was any choice in the matter. Your comments make sense only if you ignore the huge opposition to our membership of the EU which had built up over decades.
The opposition was only "huge" inside the Tory party, and instead of confronting that and recognising it as a strategic risk, Cameron's decided to placate them and thought gambling the whole country would allow him to finally shut them up. It's one of the most catastrophic foreseeable political failures in history.
Precisely. Cameron shied away from taking on the nutters himself and tried to get the electorate to do it for him. It was an act of cowardice as well as a disastrous political misjudgment which could yet end up ruining both his country and his party.
What utter tosh. What the hell do you think he was doing in the referendum campaign if not 'taking on the nutters himself'? He could have done with a bit of help from those, especially in Labour, who did virtually nothing or who actively obstructed the Remain campaign, but who now have the gall to criticise Cameron for not doing enough.
He should have taken them on within the party. As Blair did with the Labour left in the 1990s. If he had done that in 2005 they would have folded quite easily.
I must have imagined the comments about 'fruitcakes and loons' and 'not banging on about Europe', or missed some massive passage from his famous 2005 speech which clinched the leadership:
But that was just words. What action did he take against them? How many were dropped as candidates or forced out of the party? His rhetoric belied his actions, which were to come out of the EPP, and pander to Euroscepticism at every available opportunity. Every summit was presented as Cameron battling against the overmighty EU, and right up until a few weeks before the referendum he pretended to be undecided about the case for continued membership.
Someone offers a different product at different prices. If you pay for one product and then take the other that’s theft. It doesn’t matter if it’s paying for an apple and walking off with an avocado or paying for a VW Polo and driving away in a Ferrari. If even paying for standard class and travelling first
You take something without paying its theft. Black and white really.
What if you pay for guacamole and walk off with mushy peas?
Nah, you’ve paid what you think is an exceptionally cheap price for avocado and think you’ve done the seller over. You lose.
But it was blue on blue from the start. And it was Cameron who ordered the Remain campaign to go softly on the likes of Boris and Gove, not wanting to exacerbate his problems when Remain cruised to victory.
Yes, that was an error in retrospect. But it was a very honourable one - he wanted to be able to reunite the party and the country after the expected Remain victory.
Alas, it didn't turn out that way.
You don't say?
One of the great ironies of history - had the Remain campaign gone for Boris's jugular, the Tory party might have been saved.
Well, there are many 'what-ifs' which could have changed the referendum result. I doubt whether that particular one was terribly important. Corbyn's (or rather Seumas Milne's) deliberate obstruction of the Labour Leave effort was almost certainly more decisive.
Well if that line from "Auf Wiedershen Pet" about AV meaning everyone gets what nobody wants holds true revoke or no deal are probably favourite.
The question remains whether PV could be moved as a "subject to a referendum" amendment with sufficient cross-party support that the Speaker would have to take it.
Nevertheless such an AV process would surely eliminate Revoke and No Deal first and second, or vice versa, and that Corbyn's deal might well get through at the final stage. Which then requires the PM to ask for a longer extension. How do Conservatives think that handing Corbyn such a victory is in their interests?
Yes I know all that. So what is Mr Hannan's (and your) alternative. That could get through the house.
To be honest, remaining in the EU and being shits from the inside is way better than anything involving a customs union with the organisation we just left. It’s the worst possible outcome.
Welcome back to the fold. We will only tell you once every fifteen minutes that we told you it would likely end up like this.
LOL. My preferences in order:
Deal with no backstop No Deal EEA/EFTA Deal May’s Deal Remain in EU Anything involving a customs union.
A CU is an utterly bonkers idea - it locks in all the possible negatives of leaving the EU, whilst foregoing all the positives. It’s the very definition of a vassal state, leaves the EU having every incentive to screw the U.K. over at every opportunity in the future.
Sandpit - you're an intelligent guy. What's it about the Backstop that worries you?
1. The WA includes a provision for international arbitration regarding the commitment for implementing a technical solution, so if the EU does not follow through on its treaty commitments, we can walk away anyway.
2. The EU doesn't actually want us to be in the Backstop. Let's not forget that the backstop - as well as the Customs Union - also involves us being in the Single Market for goods (like Switzrtland), but without the free movement or fees. That's not something the EU would want to persist, because - errr... - the Swiss would soon start complaining about their deal.
I think it’s mostly an issue of trust. If you take as the starting point that the EU’s top objectives are to prevent regulatory divergence and to protect their trade surplus, the backstop does a very good job of it. They know they can probably stretch arbitration out for years if they wish to, with the Swiss as well as the British. They probably also hope for a much more EU-friendly British government in future.
For me personally, the likes of Tusk and Junker talking about NI being the “price to pay” for leaving the EU, and high-fiving each other over their “f... the British” WA, tells me not to believe there will anything like good faith in the next part of the talks, as there hasn’t been so far either.
Mr. B2, most of us did expect an easy Remain win. Cameron's assumption was wrong but he was in the majority expecting that result.
Nevertheless he ought, as a politician, to have fought such a critical contest with everything he has. Even a ward councillor defending their seat knows you don't try and soft pedal to an election.
If the opposition’s stated policy (and more importantly, emotional touchstone) appears to want the same result, you might change your approach slightly. He didn’t anticipate the EU becoming anathema to the Labour leadership [cue Palmer giving some bollocks excuse and clearly either believing it or being a liar]
Mr. Sandpit, trusting the EU is as damned foolish as trusting May or Corbyn.
Mentioned to my mother the other day the suggestion that Parliament should be locked and set on fire to deal with the political class. She objected, on the grounds it was quite a nice building.
Mr. Sandpit, trusting the EU is as damned foolish as trusting May or Corbyn.
Mentioned to my mother the other day the suggestion that Parliament should be locked and set on fire to deal with the political class. She objected, on the grounds it was quite a nice building.
Mr. Sandpit, trusting the EU is as damned foolish as trusting May or Corbyn.
Mentioned to my mother the other day the suggestion that Parliament should be locked and set on fire to deal with the political class. She objected, on the grounds it was quite a nice building.
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Why resign now when you can get a big Sunday Telegraph splash ?
Does anyone buy the Sunday Telegraph any longer - what is its circulation? In my local Waitrose, if one goes in at 1540 on Sunday generally all that’s left in the free newspaper section is the ST and the Observer. Certainly, I don’t pick it up even if it’s at no additional cost.
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Why resign now when you can get a big Sunday Telegraph splash ?
Does anyone buy the Sunday Telegraph any longer - what is its circulation? In my local Waitrose, if one goes in at 1540 on Sunday generally all that’s left in the free newspaper section is the ST and the Observer. Certainly, I don’t pick it up even if it’s at no additional cost.
Well I don't buy it, but the Tory party seems to love it.
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
Two point of order:
The UK drops out of the existing Euromed agreement with Israel in the event of a Hard Brexit. There is a replacement deal (Dr Fox's first success!), but the agriculture part of the agreement has not been fully fleshed out yet.
The Uk also drops out of the EU-Mexico FTA.
Hopefully the Israel deal will get finalised in the next ten days, but Mexico looks pretty unlikely.
So unless we unliaterally remove tariffs on avocado imports, yes hard Brexit will have an impact on supply.
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Agreed. It has taken a day or two before but theres not much time yet and given how divided the leaders from cabinet said they were I'll be surprised if no big beasts go. Have they really all been beaten down by it all, or woken up to the fact the numbers require this?
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
So far nothing has been agreed with Corbyn, so it's still a bit early to draw any conclusions on that.
Surely the prospect of "binding" indicative votes for all the MPs on Monday is sufficiently attractive to ensure that an agreement between two party leaders today is made almost impossible?
Do the Brexiters really believe they are going to achieve anything by talking the Programme Motion through to 5pm, rather than moving on to the substance?
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Might as well wait to see if it all goes tits-up between May & Corbyn first.
Junckers has just said there will be no extension unless the WDA is passed by monday
If so no deal is still very much in play but revoke must be increasingly possible as well
I think the EU sees the Withdrawal agreement as an almost apolitical document. It really doesn't specify anything other than the fact there'll be a transition and a backstop, which is absolubtely de minimus for leaving the European Union. The political bit is surprise surprise explicitly called the "political declaration" The problem is that the WA itself has become massively politicised in the UK with reasons varying from wanting to boot the Tories out, playing to constituency concerns and not wanting to actually leave. The EU simply doesn't see it this way, the only political bit is the backstop and they aren't budging on it - all the other concerns are mince to them.
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
So far nothing has been agreed with Corbyn, so it's still a bit early to draw any conclusions on that.
Surely the prospect of "binding" indicative votes for all the MPs on Monday is sufficiently attractive to ensure that an agreement between two party leaders today is made almost impossible?
You could well be right. I'm a bit punch-drunk from trying to evaluate the twists and turns in this saga.
Nearly three hours of petty procedural nitpicking from sour Brexiters. I can see why they tabled their amendment seeking to remove the restrictions on filibustering.
Interesting that the two resignations so far are not from the ERG wing of the Tory Party.
They both seem to be very much "middle of the road" Tories?
Heaton-Harris is a former Chairman of the ERG!
Edit - He was Chairman between 2010-16.
Middle of the road my arse.
He backed the Withdrawal Agreement from the outset.
The problem is that if 34 Conservatives and the DUP say No to everything, the government has to look elsewhere - and there's no common ground with TIG, Lib Dems, SNP or Plaid.
Nearly three hours of petty procedural nitpicking from sour Brexiters. I can see why they tabled their amendment seeking to remove the restrictions on filibustering.
Nearly three hours of petty procedural nitpicking from sour Brexiters. I can see why they tabled their amendment seeking to remove the restrictions on filibustering.
They always try making out they are middle of the road Tories when they are not. Mike Penning tried the same rouse saying he was middle of the road on Europe when he had been the whipless Tories spokesperson in the 1990s. Middle of the road my arse!
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Might as well wait to see if it all goes tits-up between May & Corbyn first.
Junckers has just said there will be no extension unless the WDA is passed by monday
If so no deal is still very much in play but revoke must be increasingly possible as well
According to the Guardian website he said no SHORT extension unless the WA is passed.
But I guess Labour will spin out the talks so a longer extension becomes necessary just to show May who's boss. And that will mean EP elections which could tip some Tories over the edge to support a VONC in TM.
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
Received several of them myself telling me to lobby "Catherine". She is not my MP, and, even as the geekiest of geeks, I didn't recognise her as an MP of any kind. So their targeting ain't spot on...
They always try making out they are middle of the road Tories when they are not. Mike Penning tried the same rouse saying he was middle of the road on Europe when he had been the whipless Tories spokesperson in the 1990s. Middle of the road my arse!
CHH is probably close to the median Conservative voter.
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Might as well wait to see if it all goes tits-up between May & Corbyn first.
Junckers has just said there will be no extension unless the WDA is passed by monday
If so no deal is still very much in play but revoke must be increasingly possible as well
According to the Guardian website he said no SHORT extension unless the WA is passed.
But I guess Labour will spin out the talks so a longer extension becomes necessary just to show May who's boss. And that will mean EP elections which could tip some Tories over the edge to support a VONC in TM.
Maybe. Long extension looks nailed on, because it enables enough waverers to punt any decision further down the field. May is desperate for a deal to pass right now, and is clearly willing to pay a big price to do so, but there may not be enough willing to name their price for that.
Received several of them myself telling me to lobby "Catherine". She is not my MP, and, even as the geekiest of geeks, I didn't recognise her as an MP of any kind. So their targeting ain't spot on...
It is clearly time to regulate political adverts on social media, and regulate them with serious teeth
Do the Brexiters really believe they are going to achieve anything by talking the Programme Motion through to 5pm, rather than moving on to the substance?
They always try making out they are middle of the road Tories when they are not. Mike Penning tried the same rouse saying he was middle of the road on Europe when he had been the whipless Tories spokesperson in the 1990s. Middle of the road my arse!
CHH is probably close to the median Conservative voter.
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
Finally the Benn amendment to the Programme Motion goes to division.
Every Conservative voter should be compelled to watch the last three hours of procedural drivel from Tory Brexiters. Few of them would ever support the party again.
Do the Brexiters really believe they are going to achieve anything by talking the Programme Motion through to 5pm, rather than moving on to the substance?
What happens if they do
They have. Two divisions to 5.30pm and then finally MPs can debate the actual motion.
Do the Brexiters really believe they are going to achieve anything by talking the Programme Motion through to 5pm, rather than moving on to the substance?
What happens if they do
They have. Two divisions to 5.30pm and then finally MPs can debate the actual motion.
Received several of them myself telling me to lobby "Catherine". She is not my MP, and, even as the geekiest of geeks, I didn't recognise her as an MP of any kind. So their targeting ain't spot on...
It is clearly time to regulate political adverts on social media, and regulate them with serious teeth
Social media needs to be treated as a publisher, that would soon motivate them to the truth. At the moment they have money and influence with nearly no responsibility.
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Might as well wait to see if it all goes tits-up between May & Corbyn first.
Junckers has just said there will be no extension unless the WDA is passed by monday
If so no deal is still very much in play but revoke must be increasingly possible as well
According to the Guardian website he said no SHORT extension unless the WA is passed.
But I guess Labour will spin out the talks so a longer extension becomes necessary just to show May who's boss. And that will mean EP elections which could tip some Tories over the edge to support a VONC in TM.
Maybe. Long extension looks nailed on, because it enables enough waverers to punt any decision further down the field. May is desperate for a deal to pass right now, and is clearly willing to pay a big price to do so, but there may not be enough willing to name their price for that.
May was ready to ask for a long extension weeks back, until she was nobbled by her idiot colleagues. Clearly the right answer. The challenge now is coming up with a reasonable justification to secure EU agreement.
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
I have to say that the resignation count is lower today than I had been expecting.
Why resign now when you can get a big Sunday Telegraph splash ?
Does anyone buy the Sunday Telegraph any longer - what is its circulation? In my local Waitrose, if one goes in at 1540 on Sunday generally all that’s left in the free newspaper section is the ST and the Observer. Certainly, I don’t pick it up even if it’s at no additional cost.
Well I don't buy it, but the Tory party seems to love it.
I haven’t read it in years but it used to be much superior to the daily version
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
Of course it is. If the Commons does not, between now and next Tuesday, vote either (a) to pass the Deal or (b) find a sustainable majority for a softer form of Brexit that the EU27 would be interested in negotiating, then the only options left will then be Hard Brexit or Revocation.
Time is all but up, and there's still no sign of a Parliamentary majority for any solution.
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
My mother once tried to smuggle two packets of biscuits into the United States, then unwisely tried to argue with the customs official when he confiscated them.
My mother once tried to smuggle two packets of biscuits into the United States, then unwisely tried to argue with the customs official when he confiscated them.
Virtually all of the Uks avocados are imported from Mexico, the US and ISRAEL.
No impact from a hard brexit.
That's a shame as I hate avocados, and generally only eat the ghastly things to be polite.
Have you perhaps made the elementary mistake of believing supermarkets who claim their avocados are ripe and ready to eat?
I can honestly say I have never eaten any avocado I liked, whether at home, with friends, family, or in a restaurant. There are very few things I dislike eating, avocado is one of the few.
My mother once tried to smuggle two packets of biscuits into the United States, then unwisely tried to argue with the customs official when he confiscated them.
They always try making out they are middle of the road Tories when they are not. Mike Penning tried the same rouse saying he was middle of the road on Europe when he had been the whipless Tories spokesperson in the 1990s. Middle of the road my arse!
CHH is probably close to the median Conservative voter.
Based on what evidence?
Based on the polling which suggest:-
1. 70-75% of Conservatives want to Leave the EU 2. 60% now support May's Deal.
Pro-EU Conservatives are now untypical, but most are not fanatics like Francois and Cope.
Received several of them myself telling me to lobby "Catherine". She is not my MP, and, even as the geekiest of geeks, I didn't recognise her as an MP of any kind. So their targeting ain't spot on...
It is clearly time to regulate political adverts on social media, and regulate them with serious teeth
Good luck with that while both parties think they can win at the social media game. In any case, much influencing is done with messages rather than adverts per se -- ask the Russian troll farms! Increasingly too, messages will be amplified and even created by bots.
Comments
One of the great ironies of history - had the Remain campaign gone for Boris's jugular, the Tory party might have been saved from the fate that awaits it.
Mr. B2, a fair criticism.
Nevertheless such an AV process would surely eliminate Revoke and No Deal first and second, or vice versa, and that Corbyn's deal might well get through at the final stage. Which then requires the PM to ask for a longer extension. How do Conservatives think that handing Corbyn such a victory is in their interests?
For me personally, the likes of Tusk and Junker talking about NI being the “price to pay” for leaving the EU, and high-fiving each other over their “f... the British” WA, tells me not to believe there will anything like good faith in the next part of the talks, as there hasn’t been so far either.
Mentioned to my mother the other day the suggestion that Parliament should be locked and set on fire to deal with the political class. She objected, on the grounds it was quite a nice building.
No impact from a hard brexit.
They both seem to be very much "middle of the road" Tories?
Not sure that is really appropriate.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/13/brexit-uk-trade-deals-eu
If so no deal is still very much in play but revoke must be increasingly possible as well
The UK drops out of the existing Euromed agreement with Israel in the event of a Hard Brexit. There is a replacement deal (Dr Fox's first success!), but the agriculture part of the agreement has not been fully fleshed out yet.
The Uk also drops out of the EU-Mexico FTA.
Hopefully the Israel deal will get finalised in the next ten days, but Mexico looks pretty unlikely.
So unless we unliaterally remove tariffs on avocado imports, yes hard Brexit will have an impact on supply.
Edit - He was Chairman between 2010-16.
Middle of the road my arse.
Edit: There's no icon for :simile: apparently. Disappointing
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/03/grassroots-facebook-brexit-ads-secretly-run-by-staff-of-lynton-crosby-firm
The problem is that the WA itself has become massively politicised in the UK with reasons varying from wanting to boot the Tories out, playing to constituency concerns and not wanting to actually leave. The EU simply doesn't see it this way, the only political bit is the backstop and they aren't budging on it - all the other concerns are mince to them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GNAZs6P3eU
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/24/universities-mccarthyism-mp-demands-list-brexit-chris-heaton-harris
Now Mad Nad wades into the debate.
The problem is that if 34 Conservatives and the DUP say No to everything, the government has to look elsewhere - and there's no common ground with TIG, Lib Dems, SNP or Plaid.
But I guess Labour will spin out the talks so a longer extension becomes necessary just to show May who's boss. And that will mean EP elections which could tip some Tories over the edge to support a VONC in TM.
So their targeting ain't spot on...
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1113430434724098050?s=19
Every Conservative voter should be compelled to watch the last three hours of procedural drivel from Tory Brexiters. Few of them would ever support the party again.
But did he really say "charter our own course"?
Time is all but up, and there's still no sign of a Parliamentary majority for any solution.
In the UK, Liptons doesn't even try to compete.
1. 70-75% of Conservatives want to Leave the EU
2. 60% now support May's Deal.
Pro-EU Conservatives are now untypical, but most are not fanatics like Francois and Cope.