politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections
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20 years of Marxism?Recidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
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Most Leavers want to Leave with No Deal next Friday however the public as a whole is a bit more restrained.dixiedean said:
Not entirely sure why. We are much closer to leaving than we were a couple of weeks ago....but then I don't pretend to understand Leaver logic.HYUFD said:We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters
YouGov this week had voters as a whole breaking 40% for Leave with No Deal, 11% for extension and 36% for withdraw our application to Leave and Remain if a Brexit Deal was not agreed by 12th April.
Leave voters however broke 77% for Leave with No Deal, 8% for extension and 7% for withdraw our application to Leave and Remain
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ci92bcdrx7/YouGov - what might help on Brexit.pdf0 -
May trying (or at least appearing to try) to ensure Brexit happens rather than the Commons forces a pointless long extension leading to no Brexit, how dare she?!Recidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
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Would be fun to see if some local councils get split as some Tories flouce out. you don't see that too often. I'm told in Wiltshire in the 70s or 80s Labour and the LDs were able to gain control because of splits in the Tories at election time.0
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...and you think that no-one in the Labour camp has realised this?Danny565 said:
I feel like Corbyn's walking into her trap. The important thing in May's statement was her saying she wouldn't extend beyond 22 May, and wouldn't contest European elections. If Corbyn allows her to go into next week's summit only requesting an extension that long, then it closes off the escape route of a further A50 extension beyond 22 May, because we won't have taken part in the EU elections.NickPalmer said:
It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.Pulpstar said:
After that, May will be able to just sit there with the clock ticking down to 22 May, stonewalling as usual in her 'talks' with Corbyn and not accepting any of his suggestions (be it a customs union, or referendum, or whatever), then a couple of days before 22 May she can go back to saying "it's the original deal, or No Deal".0 -
What is the value of X, and whatever it is, what is the problem?Omnium said:
Suppose the party 'X' wins most of the seats in the EU parliamentary elections in the UK. How on earth can you reconcile that with our democratic imperative to deliver the referendum result.NickPalmer said:
Yes, that was always a bit of a phantom threat. The parties are more or less ready for it, and even if odd parties win lots of seats and sit there for 6-12 months, so what?Benpointer said:
That would mean the EU elections have to be held.NickPalmer said:
It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.Pulpstar said:
But of course there's no agreement yet!
If X is a pro-revoke party the democratic course off action would be to construe its success as overriding the advice given in the 2016 referendum.0 -
Dear 170 No-Dealer Tory MPs,
You allowed a Remainer to become your leader. She lost you your parliamentary majority. She proposed a lousy Brexit deal. You failed to get rid of her in December. Now, when push comes to shove, she has blinked and realised that No Deal isn't better than a Labour Deal.
You are reaping what you sowed.
Yours unconcerned,
SR0 -
The only wafer thin silver lining tonight is that the Tory ultra-leavers seem to be the most unhappy people of all. In a country where everyone is unhappy to some degree or other, seeing that I am not at the end of the scale is some small consolation.0
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Yes, how ironic that the strategy of running down the clock should now be working against her.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
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Hard man Baker I think in his name.TheScreamingEagles said:This has cheered me right up
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/11131481234618449940 -
The wailing and gnashing of teeth from the ERG tonight has cheered me right up0
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A PV splits Labour more then the Conservatives. Which side would Corbyn pick, Remain or Leave?IanB2 said:
The attraction of PV for Labour is that it allows both its wings to see a path through to victory.Dadge said:
I think she's banking on Corbyn trying to find a compromise that doesn't involve a referendum. That way, both Tories and Labour will be totally split!IanB2 said:Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.
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SandyRentool said:
Dear 170 No-Dealer Tory MPs,
You allowed a Remainer to become your leader. She lost you your parliamentary majority. She proposed a lousy Brexit deal. You failed to get rid of her in December. Now, when push comes to shove, she has blinked and realised that No Deal isn't better than a Labour Deal.
You are reaping what you sowed.
Yours unconcerned,
SR 0 -
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:0 -
TM and Spreadshit Phil should say up yours Francois up yoursScrapheap_as_was said:
Excellent - hopefully private francois will catch this camera-shy ailment asap too.TheScreamingEagles said:This has cheered me right up
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/11131481234618449940 -
With (not much) respect to the ERG...
What the fuck did you think was going to happen?0 -
Agreed. It will get even worse for the Brexiteers after that.AmpfieldAndy said:
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:0 -
Um, how exactly can the '22 chairman do that? Since when is it in his remit to tell the PM she must go without a vote against her?Scott_P said:
I'm sure we'll get some resignations, those who were opposed to May's move will be taking soundings tonight no doubt and find plenty of fertile ground to be another Brexit Cabinet martyr, but boy these Brexiteers just cannot blame themselves at all can they?0 -
Not me. It means even if May was sincere, which I doubt, and even if Corbyn was open to something May could agree to, which I doubt, May probably cannot deliver anything. They've been whittled down a bit, at least for purposes of MVs, but fact is the ERG don't wail because they are impotent, they are not, they wail because usually it works, at least in preventing other things even if not achieving what they want.Scott_P said:The wailing and gnashing of teeth from the ERG tonight has cheered me right up
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Reminds me of the time when the Tory majority group on my council split, and half of them stood out in the car park refusing to join the council meeting while we and Labour voted ourselves into office. Even an adjournment by the Tory mayor to allow those inside the chamber to plead with those outside didn't resolve the matter, and we ran the council until they got their act together later that year.kle4 said:Would be fun to see if some local councils get split as some Tories flouce out. you don't see that too often. I'm told in Wiltshire in the 70s or 80s Labour and the LDs were able to gain control because of splits in the Tories at election time.
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I'm happy.IanB2 said:The only wafer thin silver lining tonight is that the Tory ultra-leavers seem to be the most unhappy people of all. In a country where everyone is unhappy to some degree or other, seeing that I am not at the end of the scale is some small consolation.
Just saying... *grins smugly*0 -
That is true in my case, have to sayMikeSmithson said:0 -
The Tories were over in 1997. Because people have short memories they will be able to rise from the dead, again.Recidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
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May is now telling Tory MPs to swivel - she doesn't care what they want or think. She cares what Corbyn thinks, and then what the Commons thinks.
For how many hours / days will the hundreds of Tory MPs who will vote against whatever May puts to them put up with their leader binning them off? If May has abandoned the Tory party surely a VONC in her as a Tory MP isn't a deselection issue it's a matter of pride0 -
In which event...AmpfieldAndy said:
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:
"However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the Future Relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue.
Crucially, the Government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House."0 -
Well done Agent Maywilliamglenn said:
Agreed. It will get even worse for the Brexiteers after that.AmpfieldAndy said:
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:0 -
Not in the short term. It's Labour conference policy. The point of throwing it back at May is that it splits her party right away.No_Offence_Alan said:
A PV splits Labour more then the Conservatives. Which side would Corbyn pick, Remain or Leave?IanB2 said:
The attraction of PV for Labour is that it allows both its wings to see a path through to victory.Dadge said:
I think she's banking on Corbyn trying to find a compromise that doesn't involve a referendum. That way, both Tories and Labour will be totally split!IanB2 said:Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.
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Jezza has played a blinder since 2015 hasn't he? You have to think the man's a genius.
Within less than four years He's gone from obscure backbencher to having the PM beg him on her hands and knees to get her out of the total shambles she's created.
BJO told all of us that #CorbynsCustomsUnion was the way Theresa would go and Jezza would soon be calling the shots so hats off to BJO.0 -
Yet SO and others on here have been saying all day that is what she'd do. They were wrong. She has made many mistakes but at the end of the day the deal she got was as good as Brexit gets for those who support it. More fool them for siding with Labour to vote it down. The ERG are the party traitors.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
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He'd say he will leave it up to individuals to decide what they want? He knows 90% of his MPs and members will campaign for remain, his leaver supporters know he has let them do their own thing, and he doesn't have to get involved.No_Offence_Alan said:
A PV splits Labour more then the Conservatives. Which side would Corbyn pick, Remain or Leave?IanB2 said:
The attraction of PV for Labour is that it allows both its wings to see a path through to victory.Dadge said:
I think she's banking on Corbyn trying to find a compromise that doesn't involve a referendum. That way, both Tories and Labour will be totally split!IanB2 said:Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.
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Maybe maybe not. Talks run down the clock even if the EU agree to extend which they haven’t yet.williamglenn said:
Agreed. It will get even worse for the Brexiteers after that.AmpfieldAndy said:
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:0 -
Really warming to May's gambit this evening.Slackbladder said:With (not much) respect to the ERG...
What the fuck did you think was going to happen?
Perhaps she has tried to take one for the team and off the ERG through a series of apoplectic fits.0 -
I have said from the beginning that no PM can afford to take us to no deal. Despite her legacy already being close to rock bottom, May won't want to go down in history alongside Lord North.felix said:
Yet SO and others on here have been saying all day that is what she'd do. They were wrong. She has made many mistakes but at the end of the day the deal she got was as good as Brexit gets for those who support it. More fool them for siding with Labour to vote it down. The ERG are the party traitors.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
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Early to bed for PB Tories tonight.GIN1138 said:Jezza has played a blinder since 2015 hasn't he? You have to think the mans a genius.
Within less than four years He's gone from obscure backbancher to having the PM beg him on her hands and knees to get her out of the total shambles she's created.
BJO told all of us that #CorbynsCustomsUnion was the way Theresa would go and Jezza would soon be calling the shots and hats off to BJO.
Once they have cut up their membership cards.0 -
Which has tried twice to reach a conclusion and failed twice.Benpointer said:
In which event...AmpfieldAndy said:
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:
"However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the Future Relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue.
Crucially, the Government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House."0 -
I think she'd be judged some way below Lord North if she led us to No Deal.IanB2 said:
I have said from the beginning that no PM can afford to take us to no deal. Despite her legacy already being close to rock bottom, May won't want to go down in history alongside Lord North.felix said:
Yet SO and others on here have been saying all day that is what she'd do. They were wrong. She has made many mistakes but at the end of the day the deal she got was as good as Brexit gets for those who support it. More fool them for siding with Labour to vote it down. The ERG are the party traitors.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
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Plan A; May's deal
Plan B: Letwin
Plan C: Corbyn. What could go wrong?
If the UK stays in the CU, do you think that in five years we will (a) be talking about whether we should be in a customs union with the EU or (b) have moved on completely and be talking about rural buses?
Well quite.
May goes after the WA, the next Tory PM will be brought down by the PD part of Brexit, the one after that by the referendum about the CU, the one after that by the battle to leave the CU, the next by...(cont. p94). Europe has brought down, entirely or in large part, the last three Con PMs and the PCP doesn't seem to show any signs of stopping just yet.0 -
I bet Big_G and TSE are not tearing up their cards!bigjohnowls said:
Early to bed for PB Tories tonight.GIN1138 said:Jezza has played a blinder since 2015 hasn't he? You have to think the mans a genius.
Within less than four years He's gone from obscure backbancher to having the PM beg him on her hands and knees to get her out of the total shambles she's created.
BJO told all of us that #CorbynsCustomsUnion was the way Theresa would go and Jezza would soon be calling the shots and hats off to BJO.
Once they have cut up their membership cards.0 -
#LaboursBrexitTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Diddums. 3 years and we've not moved a bloody inch - it's soft Brexit or no Brexit as many said at the time.williamglenn said:0 -
But it is Brexit.GIN1138 said:
#LaboursBrexitTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?0
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Next up BoJo will be saying we should Remain.kle4 said:
Diddums. 3 years and we've not moved a bloody inch - it's soft Brexit or no Brexit as many said at the time.williamglenn said:0 -
Indeed, just hoping UKIP or the Brexit Party have not got time to get some candidates in by close of nominations tomorrow eveningbigjohnowls said:
If its any consolation. We've decided to turn a couple of canvassing sessions into leafleting sessions. Its pretty febrile for both parties right now. The hard core Brexiteers 35,000 in Chesterfield compared to 23.000 Remainers are very very very angry.HYUFD said:We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters
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Since then, at an uncertain hour,Scott_P said:
That agony returns:
And till my ghastly tale is told,
This heart within me burns.
I pass, like night, from land to land;
I have strange power of speech;
That moment that his face I see,
I know the man that must hear me:
To him my tale I teach.0 -
Labour will be forming the government within weeks or months so they'll be negotiating the second part of Brexit.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
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For the shorter distances, maybe. 5K and 10K are always used rather than 3.1 or 6.2 miles.MikeSmithson said:
I think it's more complex with the longer distances, which are based on marathons: at least here in the UK, I hear people refer to a half-marathon as 13 miles, not 21km (if they mention a distance, that is), and the same with a marathon: 26-and-a-bit miles, rather than 42km.
Though in the triathlon world, metric seems to be dominant. To the extent a friend who used to do triathlons would call a marathon distance run 42km when he did it as part of a triathlon, and 26 miles when run as part of a stand-alone marathon!0 -
Boris I suspectRecidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
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There’s no guarantee of that though.GIN1138 said:
Labour will be forming the government within weeks or months so they'll be negotiating the second part of Brexit.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
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Hence election on May 23rd should be Labours key demand. Too soon for May to be replaced, too soon for ChUK to organise. Once announced cannot be withdrawn. Winner takes all.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
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Fundamentally, the Conservatives and Labour have similar problems. Most of the MPs are actually not that radical. Most of the party members are.Drutt said:Plan A; May's deal
Plan B: Letwin
Plan C: Corbyn. What could go wrong?
If the UK stays in the CU, do you think that in five years we will (a) be talking about whether we should be in a customs union with the EU or (b) have moved on completely and be talking about rural buses?
Well quite.
May goes after the WA, the next Tory PM will be brought down by the PD part of Brexit, the one after that by the referendum about the CU, the one after that by the battle to leave the CU, the next by...(cont. p94). Europe has brought down, entirely or in large part, the last three Con PMs and the PCP doesn't seem to show any signs of stopping just yet.
Things could easily end up going the way of Northern Ireland, i.e. the compromise politicians in the middle getting decimated and the irreconcilables gaining a lasting ascendancy. It's a recipe for societal division and political instability.0 -
Indeed. I don't know why everyone's getting excited by this "development".Gallowgate said:
There’s no guarantee of that though.GIN1138 said:
Labour will be forming the government within weeks or months so they'll be negotiating the second part of Brexit.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
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Nope, May's just ensured it will be Corbyn.HYUFD said:
Boris I suspectRecidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
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Why? 24 Labour MPs rebelled to vote against EUref2 and given Labour whipped in favour of a Customs Union plus Deal amendment on Monday which all but 10 Labour MPs voted for the idea Corbyn could whip against a Customs Union plus Deal amendment and not see most Labour backbenchers tell him to sod off is I think absurdFoxy said:
Labour party discipline has been in stark contrast to Tory over the last few weeks. Very few rebels, so why is that going to change now? I am not convinced that you have very good insight into Labour MPs thinking!HYUFD said:
May will ignore Corbyn and go over his head to Labour backbenchers then.NickPalmer said:
It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.Pulpstar said:
The facts will back her up, only 10 Labour MPs opposed a Customs Union but 24 Labour MPs voted against a second referendum. 37 Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union but only 15 Tory MPs voted for EUref2.
Deltapoll also has Tory voters backing her Deal plus CU 42% to 27% but Tory voters opposing EUref2 61% to 29%
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Seem to recall suggestions there would be attempts to put it into legislation that we must seek a CU, to make it as close to binding as you can get, but who knows.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
And?GIN1138 said:
#LaboursBrexitTheScreamingEagles said:
It would be cross party Brexit, which is as it should be. Brexit should not be a one party issue.0 -
Bojo met Murder on the way
She wore the mask of Tessa May0 -
They'll be the largest party.Gallowgate said:
There’s no guarantee of that though.GIN1138 said:
Labour will be forming the government within weeks or months so they'll be negotiating the second part of Brexit.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
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They may well just obey the whip, as they did for MV2.5 last Friday.HYUFD said:
Why? 24 Labour MPs rebelled to vote against EUref2 and given Labour whipped in favour of a Customs Union plus Deal amendment on Monday which all but 10 Labour MPs voted for the idea Corbyn could whip against a Customs Union plus Deal amendment and not see most Labour backbenchers tell him to sod off is I think absurdFoxy said:
Labour party discipline has been in stark contrast to Tory over the last few weeks. Very few rebels, so why is that going to change now? I am not convinced that you have very good insight into Labour MPs thinking!HYUFD said:
May will ignore Corbyn and go over his head to Labour backbenchers then.NickPalmer said:
It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.Pulpstar said:
The facts will back her up, only 10 Labour MPs opposed a Customs Union but 24 Labour MPs voted against a second referendum. 37 Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union but only 15 Tory MPs voted for EUref2.
Deltapoll also has Tory voters backing her Deal plus CU 42% to 27% but Tory voters opposing EUref2 61% to 29%0 -
Let's hope not.HYUFD said:
Boris I suspectRecidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
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Boris, not May, will be Tory leader at the next general election and the idea that a No Deal Brexit is going to see a Tory landslide v Corbyn is absurd, indeed Deal plus CU as Deltapoll showed is the only Brexit option most Tory voters back other than No Dealbrokenwheel said:
Nope, May's just ensured it will be Corbyn.HYUFD said:
Boris I suspectRecidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
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Nor me....Benpointer said:
I bet Big_G and TSE are not tearing up their cards!bigjohnowls said:
Early to bed for PB Tories tonight.GIN1138 said:Jezza has played a blinder since 2015 hasn't he? You have to think the mans a genius.
Within less than four years He's gone from obscure backbancher to having the PM beg him on her hands and knees to get her out of the total shambles she's created.
BJO told all of us that #CorbynsCustomsUnion was the way Theresa would go and Jezza would soon be calling the shots and hats off to BJO.
Once they have cut up their membership cards.
I see the ERG wants the Cabinet to remove TMay..... shame they can't do much till December themselves isn't it... sow/reap etc.0 -
These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.0
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An extension together with Labour's fingerprints on a Brexit would leave the LDs remarkably well placed for May's various elections.0
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Which would guarantee CU and SM elements BINO, especially as Sturgeon would be needed for Corbyn to govern anywayGIN1138 said:
Labour will be forming the government within weeks or months so they'll be negotiating the second part of Brexit.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
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It's been a rule that people have overestimated the WA passing at every opportunity. I'm not seeing a lot of optimism for this latest gambit from the people who overestimated the WA, so I'm not hugely confident for its chances.0
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Let's have a look at the free vote numbers:
CU : Con Ayes 36, Noes 236, Abstain 40 / Lab Ayes 230, Noes 10, Lab 3
CM2: Con Ayes 32, Noes 228, Abstain 52 / Lab Ayes 185, Noes 25, Abstain 33
PV Con Ayes 14, Noes 253, Abstain 45 / Lab Ayes 203, Noes 24, Abstain 16
So clearly the Customs Union idea starts some way ahead of CM 2.0 and PV with both Labour and Tory MPs.
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Brexit has certainly boosted Corbyn beyond the wildest dreams of anyone even, I suspect, his own supporters expected in 2015. But this is more to do with the abject incompetence of the Tories than anything else. Who would have predicted that they could have reduced the country and themselves to such a chaotic mess?GIN1138 said:Jezza has played a blinder since 2015 hasn't he? You have to think the man's a genius.
Within less than four years He's gone from obscure backbencher to having the PM beg him on her hands and knees to get her out of the total shambles she's created.
BJO told all of us that #CorbynsCustomsUnion was the way Theresa would go and Jezza would soon be calling the shots so hats off to BJO.0 -
Private Francois?MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
you might think that, I couldn't possibly comment.0 -
How did she do that? The party was about to split over no deal and usher in a GE and Corbyn anyway.brokenwheel said:
Nope, May's just ensured it will be Corbyn.HYUFD said:
Boris I suspectRecidivist said:Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?
The party had every opportunity to avoid a softer Brexit. They said no, repeatedly and at great volume. Why did they think they could do that forevermore?0 -
It's almost as if someone sabotaged the ERG by calling a VoNC in May at the wrong time in December!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Nor me....Benpointer said:
I bet Big_G and TSE are not tearing up their cards!bigjohnowls said:
Early to bed for PB Tories tonight.GIN1138 said:Jezza has played a blinder since 2015 hasn't he? You have to think the mans a genius.
Within less than four years He's gone from obscure backbancher to having the PM beg him on her hands and knees to get her out of the total shambles she's created.
BJO told all of us that #CorbynsCustomsUnion was the way Theresa would go and Jezza would soon be calling the shots and hats off to BJO.
Once they have cut up their membership cards.
I see the ERG wants the Cabinet to remove TMay..... shame they can't do much till December themselves isn't it... sow/reap etc.0 -
This actually makes sense politically, but will it work legally and with regard to the EU?Foxy said:
Hence election on May 23rd should be Labours key demand. Too soon for May to be replaced, too soon for ChUK to organise. Once announced cannot be withdrawn. Winner takes all.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
0 -
Last came Anarchy: he rodedyedwoolie said:Bojo met Murder on the way
She wore the mask of Tessa May
On a white horse, splashed with blood;
He was pale even to the lips,
Like No Deal in the Apocalypse0 -
Indeed, as losing Scotland is a likely legacy of No Deal that would be equivalent to Lord North's losing AmericaIanB2 said:
I have said from the beginning that no PM can afford to take us to no deal. Despite her legacy already being close to rock bottom, May won't want to go down in history alongside Lord North.felix said:
Yet SO and others on here have been saying all day that is what she'd do. They were wrong. She has made many mistakes but at the end of the day the deal she got was as good as Brexit gets for those who support it. More fool them for siding with Labour to vote it down. The ERG are the party traitors.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
0 -
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113145267048644608MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/11131482131571343360 -
ITYM "losing Scotland and Northern Ireland".HYUFD said:
Indeed, as losing Scotland is a likely legacy of No Deal that would be equivalent to Lord North's losing AmericaIanB2 said:
I have said from the beginning that no PM can afford to take us to no deal. Despite her legacy already being close to rock bottom, May won't want to go down in history alongside Lord North.felix said:
Yet SO and others on here have been saying all day that is what she'd do. They were wrong. She has made many mistakes but at the end of the day the deal she got was as good as Brexit gets for those who support it. More fool them for siding with Labour to vote it down. The ERG are the party traitors.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
0 -
But got far, far closer in days than May has managed in years.AmpfieldAndy said:
Which has tried twice to reach a conclusion and failed twice.Benpointer said:
In which event...AmpfieldAndy said:
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:
"However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the Future Relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue.
Crucially, the Government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House."0 -
Aha - Great historico-poetic reference!dyedwoolie said:Bojo met Murder on the way
She wore the mask of Tessa May0 -
Very smooth he looked, yet grim;dyedwoolie said:Bojo met Murder on the way
She wore the mask of Tessa May
Seven Rees-Moggs followed him:0 -
All of them and they've fucked our party for 10-15 years in the process. We're done as a political force. Not only are we about to get a zombie UK brexit, we're also going to get Corbyn as PM.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Private Francois?MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
you might think that, I couldn't possibly comment.
I'm genuinely thinking of selling my flat before it gets expropriated by the communist left.0 -
Is it quite astute of May to get Corbyn to share some of the blame? A symbiotic relationship between Tories and Labour is needed to keep both sides supporters angry enough with the other party to not vote for anyone else.
At the time of the referendum there was one UKIP voter for every one who voted Labour and FWIW UKIP were polling around 18-19%.. how will those voters feel at a cross party Brexit ft two parties who want to Remain?0 -
The phraseology of "losing" Scotland is quite revealing, as if it were a colonial possession.HYUFD said:
Indeed, as losing Scotland is a likely legacy of No Deal that would be equivalent to Lord North's losing AmericaIanB2 said:
I have said from the beginning that no PM can afford to take us to no deal. Despite her legacy already being close to rock bottom, May won't want to go down in history alongside Lord North.felix said:
Yet SO and others on here have been saying all day that is what she'd do. They were wrong. She has made many mistakes but at the end of the day the deal she got was as good as Brexit gets for those who support it. More fool them for siding with Labour to vote it down. The ERG are the party traitors.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
0 -
ERG clueless as usual.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113145267048644608MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148213157134336 0 -
Sorry to see the frenzied writhing of the ever furious ERG head-bangers..williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113145267048644608MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/11131482131571343360 -
Will the cabinet be abstaining on the indicitive votes they need to thence follow ? Or free vote, or whip against ?0
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Look, Foxy I know party politics comes before all else for you and having trashed hard Brexit for months as soon as May offers a compromise you have to trash that too but most Labour MPs are not braindead, even if it sometimes seems so, after all but 10 of them voted for a Customs Union or abstained when it was proposed by Tory Ken Clarke, the idea that they are all going to suddenly vote against it because Corbyn says so is absurd and I fail to see how Corbyn does oppose it anyway given it is the cornerstone of his Brexit policyFoxy said:
They may well just obey the whip, as they did for MV2.5 last Friday.HYUFD said:
Why? 24 Labour MPs rebelled to vote against EUref2 and given Labour whipped in favour of a Customs Union plus Deal amendment on Monday which all but 10 Labour MPs voted for the idea Corbyn could whip against a Customs Union plus Deal amendment and not see most Labour backbenchers tell him to sod off is I think absurdFoxy said:
Labour party discipline has been in stark contrast to Tory over the last few weeks. Very few rebels, so why is that going to change now? I am not convinced that you have very good insight into Labour MPs thinking!HYUFD said:
May will ignore Corbyn and go over his head to Labour backbenchers then.NickPalmer said:
It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.Pulpstar said:
The facts will back her up, only 10 Labour MPs opposed a Customs Union but 24 Labour MPs voted against a second referendum. 37 Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union but only 15 Tory MPs voted for EUref2.
Deltapoll also has Tory voters backing her Deal plus CU 42% to 27% but Tory voters opposing EUref2 61% to 29%
0 -
There would have to be some space between announcing the election and proroguing parliament, to allow enabling legislation, so may need to add a couple of weeks.Freggles said:
This actually makes sense politically, but will it work legally and with regard to the EU?Foxy said:
Hence election on May 23rd should be Labours key demand. Too soon for May to be replaced, too soon for ChUK to organise. Once announced cannot be withdrawn. Winner takes all.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
0 -
Not a valid comparison, those votes take place in the context of the wider debate, we have no way of knowing how close they would have been had they started out as the options or took place in a less cliff edge scenario.Andy_Cooke said:
But got far, far closer in days than May has managed in years.AmpfieldAndy said:
Which has tried twice to reach a conclusion and failed twice.Benpointer said:
In which event...AmpfieldAndy said:
Assumes May and Corbyn strike a deal. Don’t see that happening.williamglenn said:
"However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the Future Relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue.
Crucially, the Government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House."
And May's deal is the most popular inthe Commons. It' sjust not the least unpopular.0 -
I might not phrase it the same way, but I completely share the sentiment.MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
My anger at them rejecting the WA and the Brexit I wanted is tempered only by watching their slow dawning of realisation turning to rabid apoplexy.
Stuff them all. I hope they split and sod off and leave the party to us moderates.
0 -
Should do, it would fit with their demand for a major political step in order to grant a long extension.Freggles said:
This actually makes sense politically, but will it work legally and with regard to the EU?Foxy said:
Hence election on May 23rd should be Labours key demand. Too soon for May to be replaced, too soon for ChUK to organise. Once announced cannot be withdrawn. Winner takes all.Gallowgate said:What I want to know is how does a ‘customs union’ even happen? Even if it gets written into the PD it’s not legally binding is it? So it’s still a blind brexit, at the whim of the next Tory leader regardless. Am I wrong?
I can't see Corbyn signing up to anything with May unless it includes either a general election a second referendum or perhaps both. The Labour Party grassroots would not accept anything less.0 -
You're quite right. We shouldn't regard it as a loss at all.williamglenn said:
The phraseology of "losing" Scotland is quite revealing, as if it were a colonial possession.HYUFD said:
Indeed, as losing Scotland is a likely legacy of No Deal that would be equivalent to Lord North's losing AmericaIanB2 said:
I have said from the beginning that no PM can afford to take us to no deal. Despite her legacy already being close to rock bottom, May won't want to go down in history alongside Lord North.felix said:
Yet SO and others on here have been saying all day that is what she'd do. They were wrong. She has made many mistakes but at the end of the day the deal she got was as good as Brexit gets for those who support it. More fool them for siding with Labour to vote it down. The ERG are the party traitors.Benpointer said:
Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.OblitusSumMe said:
Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.Danny565 said:Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?
0 -
They really seem to think they have played no part in what is happening right now. Why do they think May is doing this, do they think this was some master scheme?GIN1138 said:
ERG clueless as usual.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113145267048644608MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/11131482131571343360 -
Corbyn actually won the 2016 local elections before Brexit but lost the 2017 local elections after Brexitanothernick said:
Brexit has certainly boosted Corbyn beyond the wildest dreams of anyone even, I suspect, his own supporters expected in 2015. But this is more to do with the abject incompetence of the Tories than anything else. Who would have predicted that they could have reduced the country and themselves to such a chaotic mess?GIN1138 said:Jezza has played a blinder since 2015 hasn't he? You have to think the man's a genius.
Within less than four years He's gone from obscure backbencher to having the PM beg him on her hands and knees to get her out of the total shambles she's created.
BJO told all of us that #CorbynsCustomsUnion was the way Theresa would go and Jezza would soon be calling the shots so hats off to BJO.0 -
After May finally goes, they will presumably look to take the party over as the Corbynites did with Labour, and keep fighting.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113145267048644608MaxPB said:These c*nts had 3 chances to get the deal done, they spurned every single one. Now we're fucked.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/11131482131571343360
