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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

Harry Hayfield’s March 2019 Local By-Election Summary Labour 6,624 votes (32% unchanged on last time) winning 6 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservatives 5,024 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 3,626 votes (17% +4% on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,641 votes (8% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Independents 1,154 votes (6% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Local Independents 875 votes (4% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time) Scottish National Party 865 votes (4% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 490 votes (2% -5% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Other Parties 508 votes (2% +2% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Labour lead of 1,600 votes (8%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con

Read the full story here

Pulpstar

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

kle4

Ah, Locals. Time for a Tory bloodbath soon?

dixiedean

First. Like, err nobody now.
Or even third...we can't be sure!

kle4

Pulpstar said:

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

Show off.

2 miles in 17.5 is about the best I manage.

Jonathan

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

kle4

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

C4 news says may likely to propose to Corbyn they formally back another series of indicative votes and agree to abide by the outcome ie almost certainly leading to Deal plus CU

That’s what we were talking about last night. They read this place.

Those poor bastards.

Even if they promise that, and promise to whip it, why would MPs listen?

Pulpstar

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

Foxy

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

And the ERG will be blue.

Jonathan

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

Quite. Little did we know what she meant at the time.

MyBurningEars

Pulpstar said:

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

Well done, keep at it!

Hope you actually enjoy it btw, it sounds as masochistic as another PB Brexit thread otherwise

HYUFD

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

RochdalePioneers

Thanks for the thread Harry. As a Labour candidate on 2nd May it will certainly be interesting to see how Brexit has an impact. My Borough Council has a small Labour majority at the moment, local Tories want to make progress (having won the regional mayoralty) but we shall see. Locally to me its Labour vs Independent - we're making the simple point that voting Independent hands the council to the Tories. As the local independents hate us with a passion and make 3 out of every 4 things they say an attack on us 15 years ago when their leader split away.

SquareRoot

a dozen comments or so all from the fringes..

solarflare

Michael Gove sounding extremely nothing has changed.

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Are you a candidate this time round?

OblitusSumMe

Really interesting to see the implied Brexit swing, for all the necessary caveats. It's a fairly modest swing, broadly in line with the opinion polls, and very far from being decisive - almost perfectly pitched to maximise the uncertainty.

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Not entirely sure why. We are much closer to leaving than we were a couple of weeks ago....but then I don't pretend to understand Leaver logic.

HYUFD

Yvette Cooper on C4 news says she hopes May is moving towards a different kind of approach now, says she may now withdraw her proposed Bill to force the PM to request a further extension but wants to be clear on how the process will work, including on future indicative votes, however pleased the PM moving in the right direction

Floater

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Your party is going to deserve the shellacking it is going to get.

HYUFD

VP of EU Parliament Mairead McGuinness on C4 news glad PM has seen the potential damage of No Deal and hopes her speech will chart a course to a ratification of a Deal, though will be a challenge to get all the ratification through before the European Elections date

felix

Huge credit to May for making this very difficult decision. Hope those who have been going on all day about how she'd opt for no deal will acknowledge they were wrong about her ultimate motives.

Jonathan

Corbyn was very good.

GIN1138

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Keeping your head down eh?

Think your going to have to do a lot of that between now and Corbyn going to kiss hands with HMQ.

Recidivist

felix said:

Huge credit to May for making this very difficult decision. Hope those who have been going on all day about how she'd opt for no deal will acknowledge they were wrong about her ultimate motives.

I admit I was wrong about her ultimate motives.

kle4

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Not entirely sure why. We are much closer to leaving than we were a couple of weeks ago....but then I don't pretend to understand Leaver logic.

The closer we are to Leave, the closer we are to disappointing realities of Leave.

NickPalmer

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

kle4

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

Good. Brexit should be cross party. Hugely damaging tribalism has been at play too long, and probably still is, but being open to compromise is a good thing no matter if party members bleat.

Benpointer

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

That would mean the EU elections have to be held.

AmpfieldAndy

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

kle4

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

Sadly I think that price is too high for May. CU I can see, but referendum means remain, let's not kid ourselves, and she'd probably lose everyone but Hammond.

So I doubt this is serious stuff. Corbyn might personally accept something without a referendum, maybe, but he cannot not ask for one given the party position. May may struggle with that. Even talking to Corbyn is supposedly beyond the pale, let alone giving in on that.

MikeSmithson

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

Show off.

2 miles in 17.5 is about the best I manage.

People don't run in miles anymore - kilometres is the measurement

GIN1138

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

Vote anyone but Tory. Even MRLP.

Absolutely anyone but Tory.

Benpointer

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

Er... If you don't like it, isn't that all the more reason to vote for someone other than a Tory?

kle4

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

Show off.

2 miles in 17.5 is about the best I manage.

People don't run in miles anymore - kilometres is the measurement

Not on my treadmill it ain't, though I did have to adjust the settings !

AmpfieldAndy

solarflare said:

Michael Gove sounding extremely nothing has changed.

That is why he won’t get a look in when the leadership election comes.

tlg86

GIN1138 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

Vote anyone but Tory. Even MRLP.

Absolutely anyone but Tory.

+1

IanB2

Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.

Omnium

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

Show off.

2 miles in 17.5 is about the best I manage.

People don't run in miles anymore - kilometres is the measurement

"PB, better by miles", or "PB, better by kilometers"

AmpfieldAndy

GIN1138 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

Vote anyone but Tory. Even MRLP.

Absolutely anyone but Tory.

Not sure they’ll be standing the locals but with May in charge I’m not sure there is too much difference sadly.

IanB2

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Keeping your head down eh?

Think your going to have to do a lot of that between now and Corbyn going to kiss hands with HMQ.

Karma for the misery that LibDem councillors endured during the coalition was sure to arrive back at the Tory doorstep sooner or later.

Andrew

kle4 said:

Sadly I think that price is too high for May. CU I can see, but referendum means remain, let's not kid ourselves, and she'd probably lose everyone but Hammond.

Indeed. Corbyn's policy was CU last week, SM this week, and will pivot to referendum to stop any chance of a deal.

dyedwoolie

IanB2 said:

Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.

If he gets concessions on the deal - CU gor example, he won't want the public to have the chance to reject it. And he will struggle to keep his front bench on board

SandyRentool

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

You could always bare your arse and glue your hands to the window of the Tory Party offices.

Recidivist

I predict the Tories will do okay in the locals. The Brexit monomaniacs are big on Twitter but I don't think there are that many out in the wild.

SandyRentool

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

Show off.

2 miles in 17.5 is about the best I manage.

People don't run in miles anymore - kilometres is the measurement

Another reason we voted Leave :-)

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

May will ignore Corbyn and go over his head to Labour backbenchers then.

The facts will back her up, only 10 Labour MPs opposed a Customs Union but 24 Labour MPs voted against a second referendum. 37 Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union but only 15 Tory MPs voted for EUref2.

Deltapoll also has Tory voters backing her Deal plus CU 42% to 27% but Tory voters opposing EUref2 61% to 29%

Danny565

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

I feel like Corbyn's walking into her trap. The important thing in May's statement was her saying she wouldn't extend beyond 22 May, and wouldn't contest European elections. If Corbyn allows her to go into next week's summit only requesting an extension that long, then it closes off the escape route of a further A50 extension beyond 22 May, because we won't have taken part in the EU elections.

After that, May will be able to just sit there with the clock ticking down to 22 May, stonewalling as usual in her 'talks' with Corbyn and not accepting any of his suggestions (be it a customs union, or referendum, or whatever), then a couple of days before 22 May she can go back to saying "it's the original deal, or No Deal".

Black_Rook

I'll be very sceptical about the latest evolution of the Brexit process - unless or until it yields a solution. However, if the miracle occurs and May and Corbyn produce a deliverable solution, then one assumes that this can only increase the probability of a Labour Government further down the line?

If Corbyn makes himself look sensible to floating/less engaged voters then some of them are bound to be less wary of putting him into office than they would've been before?

I suppose it all comes down to whether there's any compromise available that can satisfy the Parliamentary Labour Party without risking a Tory collapse? I remain to be convinced that such a solution will be arrived at...

Dadge

IanB2 said:

Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.

I think she's banking on Corbyn trying to find a compromise that doesn't involve a referendum. That way, both Tories and Labour will be totally split!

TheScreamingEagles

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

OblitusSumMe

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Evening all, 5.6 miles in 52:20 - Getting fitter bit by bit

Show off.

2 miles in 17.5 is about the best I manage.

People don't run in miles anymore - kilometres is the measurement

I found more encouragement by counting the furlongs as they were shorter than either.

Artist

Too many Labour MPs rebelled on the referendum indicative vote yesterday for Corbyn to be able to put it forward.

NickPalmer

Benpointer said:

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

That would mean the EU elections have to be held.

Yes, that was always a bit of a phantom threat. The parties are more or less ready for it, and even if odd parties win lots of seats and sit there for 6-12 months, so what?

But of course there's no agreement yet!

Omnium

IanB2 said:

Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.

The Labour strategy should be to abstain and thus force a GE.

The fact that they didn't do the blindingly obvious tells you two things, and that's they don't have a clue, and they're playing a game.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1113157654560608262

IanB2

Dadge said:

IanB2 said:

Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.

I think she's banking on Corbyn trying to find a compromise that doesn't involve a referendum. That way, both Tories and Labour will be totally split!

The attraction of PV for Labour is that it allows both its wings to see a path through to victory.

dyedwoolie

Artist said:

Too many Labour MPs rebelled on the referendum indicative vote yesterday for Corbyn to put be able to put it forward.

Including 9 shadow cabinet/minister abstentions

No_Offence_Alan

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

Always vote for some-one then next time, if you change your vote, it has twice the effect.

Dadge

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

If you're right, it seems that May has left it a couple of months too late to make this move. (Sad for her and Corbyn, but great for the drama.) It's really only quite recently that Corbyn has started to come on board with the idea of a referendum, despite the party's wishes. In fact, I think that he and May might still do a dirty little deal to take Britain out of the EU without a referendum, and challenge parliament to vote it down.

Fat_Steve

Thanks to Harry for putting together the thread, but either I am missing something significant or I think he's stretching his reading of the data beyond a useful point.
Is the change in Leave/ Remain support inferred from change in party allegiance only ? Or is there something that I've missed ?

rottenborough

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

The idiots just waved goodbye to leaving in April, that's for sure.

IanB2

Danny565 said:

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

I feel like Corbyn's walking into her trap. The important thing in May's statement was her saying she wouldn't extend beyond 22 May, and wouldn't contest European elections. If Corbyn allows her to go into next week's summit only requesting an extension that long, then it closes off the escape route of a further A50 extension beyond 22 May, because we won't have taken part in the EU elections.

After that, May will be able to just sit there with the clock ticking down to 22 May, stonewalling as usual in her 'talks' with Corbyn and not accepting any of his suggestions (be it a customs union, or referendum, or whatever), then a couple of days before 22 May she can go back to saying "it's the original deal, or No Deal".

Which is why Cooper shouldn't blink or be seduced by false prophets.

Slackbladder

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

Awww. diddum he should have quit whilst he was ahead

Fat_Steve

Fat_Steve said:

Thanks to Harry for putting together the thread, but either I am missing something significant or I think he's stretching his reading of the data beyond a useful point.
Is the change in Leave/ Remain support inferred from change in party allegiance only ? Or is there something that I've missed ?

Ah, so we are to infer from the vote chnges, that leave areas are less happy with the government than remain areas? Well, maybe. But I suspect that we're missing a lot of variables.

Black_Rook

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

I'm not convinced that you and him really belong in the same party, you know...

This, of course, is the fault of the UK's archaic electoral system. If we had something that didn't force politicians to stay in these miserable marriage of convenience parties then both Labour and the Conservatives would cleave into two or three parts tomorrow.

So long as we don't change to AV. It's shit.

Andrew

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

Moi aussi. Imagine, perhaps unlikely as it is, the current route seals a deal, and we end up actually leaving with a soft Brexit .... all the right people would be upset.

Adonis/Grayling would be wailing.

Baker/Francois and the ERGoloons would feel betrayed.

Grieve would be distraught all his scheming to overturn the vote came to nothing.

Danny565

Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?

Foxy

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

May will ignore Corbyn and go over his head to Labour backbenchers then.

The facts will back her up, only 10 Labour MPs opposed a Customs Union but 24 Labour MPs voted against a second referendum. 37 Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union but only 15 Tory MPs voted for EUref2.

Deltapoll also has Tory voters backing her Deal plus CU 42% to 27% but Tory voters opposing EUref2 61% to 29%

Labour party discipline has been in stark contrast to Tory over the last few weeks. Very few rebels, so why is that going to change now? I am not convinced that you have very good insight into Labour MPs thinking!

ThomasNashe

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

Yes, don't know if any progress will be made, but for sure it's upset all the right people: JRM and Anne Marie Morris also very pissed off.

AmpfieldAndy

Benpointer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

Er... If you don't like it, isn't that all the more reason to vote for someone other than a Tory?

Why - the others are no better

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1113157654560608262

Gove the snake strikes again...

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1113157654560608262

"Cox came in behind the PM"

Ms K is having a laugh.

Foxy

Danny565 said:

Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?

Yes, Nothing Has Changed!

HYUFD

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Keeping your head down eh?

Think your going to have to do a lot of that between now and Corbyn going to kiss hands with HMQ.

I have canvassed in local elections in good times and bad and will continue to do so, including the terrible 2012 locals and my first canvassing experience for the Tories was the 1997 general election so let nobody say I have not gone into the trenches when needed (I expect we will be out again later in the week and at the weekend).

There is still a long way until the next election and whatever Deal May gets through (which I will support in terms of the WA certainly) I expect Boris or Raab to be leading the party once the election comes making it a whole different ball game in terms of the future relationship

IanB2

The key to the Cabinet is to know what options were discussed during the hours and hours they met, before the PM rejected them and reached her final position. Hopefully somebody will leak the minutes to LK as before.

TheScreamingEagles

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

I'm not convinced that you and him really belong in the same party, you know...

This, of course, is the fault of the UK's archaic electoral system. If we had something that didn't force politicians to stay in these miserable marriage of convenience parties then both Labour and the Conservatives would cleave into two or three parts tomorrow.

So long as we don't change to AV. It's shit.

AV is shit? Where's the banhammer?

If Ken Clarke, David Herdson, Richard Nabavi, Tissue Price, and JohnO are in the same party as myself then I'm content.

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

Are you a candidate this time round?

Standing for town not district

Peter_the_Punter

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

May will ignore Corbyn and go over his head to Labour backbenchers then.

The facts will back her up, only 10 Labour MPs opposed a Customs Union but 24 Labour MPs voted against a second referendum. 37 Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union but only 15 Tory MPs voted for EUref2.

Deltapoll also has Tory voters backing her Deal plus CU 42% to 27% but Tory voters opposing EUref2 61% to 29%

Labour party discipline has been in stark contrast to Tory over the last few weeks. Very few rebels, so why is that going to change now? I am not convinced that you have very good insight into Labour MPs thinking!

Labour Party 'discipline' is down to awareness that Tories are currently toxic. No Labour MP will want to be seen to be helping them extricate themselves from their difficulties.

AlanC

Corbyn's manoveuring over the last few months has been designed to avoid committing to a referendum. This process won't lead to one. It suits both parties to blame the Conservatives for blocking a People's Vote. The open question is what compromises Labour will need to give in return for the government agreeing to a custom's union.

Omnium

NickPalmer said:

Benpointer said:

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

That would mean the EU elections have to be held.

Yes, that was always a bit of a phantom threat. The parties are more or less ready for it, and even if odd parties win lots of seats and sit there for 6-12 months, so what?

But of course there's no agreement yet!

Suppose the party 'X' wins most of the seats in the EU parliamentary elections in the UK. How on earth can you reconcile that with our democratic imperative to deliver the referendum result.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

Excellent - hopefully private francois will catch this camera-shy ailment asap too.

Foxy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

I'm not convinced that you and him really belong in the same party, you know...

This, of course, is the fault of the UK's archaic electoral system. If we had something that didn't force politicians to stay in these miserable marriage of convenience parties then both Labour and the Conservatives would cleave into two or three parts tomorrow.

So long as we don't change to AV. It's shit.

AV is shit? Where's the banhammer?

If Ken Clarke, David Herdson, Richard Nabavi, Tissue Price, and JohnO are in the same party as myself then I'm content.

Is that the "Not obsessed by Europe and Gays" party?

Benpointer

AmpfieldAndy said:

Benpointer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

We’ve got local elections this year. I doubt I’ll vote. With the Tories granting planning permission to increase the size of the town by 40% with zero additional infrastructure and no credible opposition, there is no point.

Er... If you don't like it, isn't that all the more reason to vote for someone other than a Tory?

Why - the others are no better

Well your call, of course but I alsways think if you don't like the government/council use your vote to vote for one of the opposition parties, it's all you can do.

Recidivist

Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?

Recidivist

Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?

AramintaMoonbeamQC

ThomasNashe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

Yes, don't know if any progress will be made, but for sure it's upset all the right people: JRM and Anne Marie Morris also very pissed off.

IDS is fewmin', babe, according to Twitter.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1113163441471188992

TheScreamingEagles

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

I'm not convinced that you and him really belong in the same party, you know...

This, of course, is the fault of the UK's archaic electoral system. If we had something that didn't force politicians to stay in these miserable marriage of convenience parties then both Labour and the Conservatives would cleave into two or three parts tomorrow.

So long as we don't change to AV. It's shit.

AV is shit? Where's the banhammer?

If Ken Clarke, David Herdson, Richard Nabavi, Tissue Price, and JohnO are in the same party as myself then I'm content.

Is that the "Not obsessed by Europe and Gays" party?

Yup.

eristdoof

Omnium said:

IanB2 said:

Put Corbyn's personal views, whatever they might be, aside, and just focus on the tactics - surely it makes sense for Labour to play the People's Vote back at the PM? Rides the wave and leaves her nowhere to go.

The Labour strategy should be to abstain and thus force a GE.

The fact that they didn't do the blindingly obvious tells you two things, and that's they don't have a clue, and they're playing a game.

Labour abstaining would be a terrible tactic. The government would pass an MV straight away, and would not call a GE then 70% of Labour voters would be very pissed off with Corbyn.

OblitusSumMe

Danny565 said:

Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?

Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.

Pulpstar

Artist said:

Too many Labour MPs rebelled on the referendum indicative vote yesterday for Corbyn to be able to put it forward.

Customs Union perhaps...

Foxy

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit means Brexit.

Red Brexit

May did promise a Red White and blue brexit

She's waved the white flag for Corbyn to help out..

It all seems quite civilised - and it'll be hard for either leader to denounce the other as virulently as in the past if it all works out. I note that the Chief Whip is reported as saying that Corbyn's price is likely to be a referendum, and if that happens I think most Labour people will accept a deal subject to that.

May will ignore Corbyn and go over his head to Labour backbenchers then.

The facts will back her up, only 10 Labour MPs opposed a Customs Union but 24 Labour MPs voted against a second referendum. 37 Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union but only 15 Tory MPs voted for EUref2.

Deltapoll also has Tory voters backing her Deal plus CU 42% to 27% but Tory voters opposing EUref2 61% to 29%

Labour party discipline has been in stark contrast to Tory over the last few weeks. Very few rebels, so why is that going to change now? I am not convinced that you have very good insight into Labour MPs thinking!

Labour Party 'discipline' is down to awareness that Tories are currently toxic. No Labour MP will want to be seen to be helping them extricate themselves from their difficulties.

I what way is that going to change by next week?

williamglenn

Recidivist said:

Seeing Conservative Party membership cards being cut up on Twitter. The Tories as we have known them are over. I wonder what comes next?

So far all they've done is indicate they want to avoid no deal.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has cheered me right up

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1113148123461844994

Excellent - hopefully private francois will catch this camera-shy ailment asap too.

I wonder if they'll go all Jonestown on us?

Even the village idiot has caught up.

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1113149571616604161

GIN1138

HYUFD said:

There is still a long way until the next election and whatever Deal May gets through

Is there?

Benpointer

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1113163441471188992

Very cheering!

Benpointer

OblitusSumMe said:

Danny565 said:

Have people really forgotten that May has done this exact same "talks with opposition leader(s)" PR stunt twice already this year, and both times she just didn't engage with any of the suggestions those leaders made in those talks, and then after a few days went back to saying "my deal is the only way"? Why would it be any different this time?

Time has passed, more votes have been lost, May is a victim of the clock ticking down as much as anyone.

Indeed. If May was prepared to countenance No Deal we'd have left last week.

kle4

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1113163441471188992

The got 40% of the vote in a GE, he's already legitimised, what is he on about?

bigjohnowls

HYUFD said:

We have cancelled canvassing for the local elections in Epping tonight, did not want to have to get out the flack jackets when meeting Leave voters

If its any consolation. We've decided to turn a couple of canvassing sessions into leafleting sessions. Its pretty febrile for both parties right now. The hard core Brexiteers 35,000 in Chesterfield compared to 23.000 Remainers are very very very angry.