politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and
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Actually that's not the precedent.Charles said:
It shouldn’t.Black_Rook said:
Yes. So presumably in such an eventuality the motion would pass?FrancisUrquhart said:
If true, does Mr Bollocks to Brexit get a say?rottenborough said:
The Speaker should maintain the status quo (“the house is not convinced”)
But I am sure that Bercow will “innovate”0 -
Clarke:
Ayes 273
Noes 276
Boles:
Ayes 261
Noes 282
Kyle:
Ayes 280
Noes 292
Cherry:
Ayes 191
Noes 2920 -
The first question speaks volumes - 14 counties said the county game prepares players well for test cricket, 3 said it didn't. None so blind as those that won't see.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No No No No0
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Good night for TM0
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HAHAHAHAHA still all f**ked0
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Excellent chaos continues!0
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People's Vote ahead again.0
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Nothing with a majority, Tories didn't rebel.0
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Oh dear.0
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ahahahhahahahaha
I've lost £10 but it has been 100% worth it0 -
Hahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!0
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All no? Heh.
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Back again on Wednesday?0
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Nein.0
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Reduced from No No No No No No No, to No No No No.bigjohnowls said:No No No No
Next time it should be No No, ending in a decisive No.0 -
MV4 needed now.0
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Let's go no deal!
#DRAX0 -
Well, that's all gone tits up.0
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Given that Parliament can't make its mind up, how about HMG take back control?
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It isn't the people's vote though, put that in the frame and it will barely get to 200 ayes.williamglenn said:People's Vote ahead again.
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No no, no no no no, no no no no, no no there's no limit.0
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CORBYN = KNOB0
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Vote off between TM and CU?0
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I reject your offer of quiche (and every other canape)....0
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anti incumbency penalty rising0
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May's deal had the highest number of votes...0
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Oh, for goodness' sake.0
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Commons vote: No Deal versus Revocation, April 11th. It's on the way...0
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Corbyn wants another go !!!!0
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I told you didn't I? Anything Letwin is involved with will always be a complete **** up! 0
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Corbyn wants a third day FFS...whats going to change?0
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Yes, bit of an embarrassment for Letwin!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Well, that's all gone tits up.
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Blackford really is a #0
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Corbyn is full of crap. The only reason its close is due to abstentions. Time for Tories to 3-line whip all of these ludicrous options if it happens again.0
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Nope. That is completely irrelevant. We are talking about basic facts. How much does Norway pay compared to the UK for single market access and how much of the EU legislation does it have to adopt. Neither of these things are dependent on how 'Nordic' each country is nor on how much oil wealth they have.dots said:
Let’s skip to the bottom line. We can trade facts to the point a brexit preference becomes abstract. like enjoying time spent with an Eskimo society it works very well, let’s copy them. But there are two killer facts undermining your preference. Norway is a Nordic country of 5 million people. The success or attractiveness of the Norway model is bogus because it is being underwritten by a wealth UK does not have.Richard_Tyndall said:
The problem is you have now moved on from quoting false figures and making uninformed statements about how EFTA works to debating happiness in Norway - and with someone who lived and worked there for 15 years.dots said:
Hence my suggestion, how can you compare society’s benefitting differently in investment home and abroad, the impact on taxation and households, and a general sense of happiness and well being, due to income from oil revenue? What could work fine in one situation with a populace very happy could be regressive in a different culture, different psychology with deindustrial, health and social care deficits stacking up.
But the basic position is that if we did choose the Norway option we would pay a lot less to the EU for Single Market access and would be subject to perhaps only 30% of the legislation that we currently have to adopt from the EU. All whilst keeping our trade with them.
It is a very attractive proposition for anyone who is not bothered about the freedom of movement issue.
You are using utterly irrelevant arguments to try and obfuscate after your basic figures were found to be false.0 -
Surely if the options were narrowed down to the two most popular one of them would get through.0
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Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.
Take out the Cabinet votes for the WA and all four of them are more popular.0 -
The House Of Fools in all its glory on April Fools Day!!!!!! 0
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And there, in a nutshell, the entire brexit struggle. Are we strong, stable and wealthy with good times ahead. Or do we have to make decisions based on a downward trajectory and diminishing returns in the years and decades ahead?dots said:
Let’s skip to the bottom line. We can trade facts to the point a brexit preference becomes abstract. like enjoying time spent with an Eskimo society it works very well, let’s copy them. But there are two killer facts undermining your preference. Norway is a Nordic country of 5 million people. The success or attractiveness of the Norway model is bogus because it is being underwritten by a wealth UK does not have.Richard_Tyndall said:
The problem is you have now moved on from quoting false figures and making uninformed statements about how EFTA works to debating happiness in Norway - and with someone who lived and worked there for 15 years.dots said:
Hence my suggestion, how can you compare society’s benefitting differently in investment home and abroad, the impact on taxation and households, and a general sense of happiness and well being, due to income from oil revenue? What could work fine in one situation with a populace very happy could be regressive in a different culture, different psychology with deindustrial, health and social care deficits stacking up.
But the basic position is that if we did choose the Norway option we would pay a lot less to the EU for Single Market access and would be subject to perhaps only 30% of the legislation that we currently have to adopt from the EU. All whilst keeping our trade with them.
It is a very attractive proposition for anyone who is not bothered about the freedom of movement issue.0 -
Indicative votes results
Motion C : Customs Union (Clarke) For 276 against 273
Motion
Common Market 2.0 (Boles) For 261 Against 282
Motion E: Confirmatory Public Vote (Kyle/Wilson) For 280 Against 292
Motion G: Parliamentary Supremacy (Cherry) For 191 Against 292
So no Motion again gets a majority but Customs Union again closest and none gets more than May's Deal, she may bring back her Deal again but Letwin now likely to try and switch to preference voting on Wednesday.
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An either / or might result in a tieAndyJS said:Surely if the options were narrowed down to the two most popular one of them would get through.
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Corbyn maketh no sense - once again0
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All the MPs are only interested in only their plan FFS....no compromise for anyone.0
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I realise D colon got turned intoHYUFD said:Indicative votes results
Motion C : Customs Union (Clarke) For 276 against 273
Motion Common Market 2.0 (Boles) For 261 Against 282
Motion E: Confirmatory Public Vote (Kyle/Wilson) For 280 Against 292
Motion G: Parliamentary Supremacy (Cherry) For 191 Against 292
So no Motion again gets a majority but Customs Union again closest and none gets more than May's Deal, she may bring back her Deal again but Letwin now likely to try and switch to preference voting on Wednesday., but strangely fitting 0 -
Blackford threatening indyref2 if no option agreed on to avoid No Deal0
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Talk about scraping the barrel?Andy_Cooke said:Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.
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Boles quits the Tories0
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Wow0
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What the hell's going on with Nick Boles?0
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Boles having a strop.0
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BOLES OUT0
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Put the Tory whips against all of them and see how popular they are. The WA agreement gets closest with single party support. It's time for the Labour cowards to put the nation first and vote through the WA.Andy_Cooke said:Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.
Take out the Cabinet votes for the WA and all four of them are more popular.0 -
Nick Boles resigns live0
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"But the Commons can still avoid a no-deal Brexit, and avoid having to hold European elections, by voting for the PM’s deal this week."
Is that actually true? I think the EU would agree, in the circumstances - but not sure it *has* agreed?0 -
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Is he joining the CUKs?0
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I thought he believed in following the will of the Commons, he has moaned about the goverment not doing that.SandyRentool said:Boles quits the Tories
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Robert the Bruce just did a Point of Order.0
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Boles gone.0
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Boles resigns from the Tory party0
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Blimey Boles.
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Boles - resigns the whip0
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Sky News reporting Boles has defected from the Tories
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LOL! Boles-Meltdown 0
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Boles on tour 0
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Boles just went0
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That was a brilliant moment.Scott_P said:
Probably won't make a jot of difference, but good to see him take a stand.0 -
Customs Union or TM Deal. Most votes wins. Have to avoid No Deal. 2nd Ref definitely not.0
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Boles has resigned the whip according to Sky News0
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Boles is playing the ego card - sad0
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TIG alert?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
That was a brilliant moment.Scott_P said:
Probably won't make a jot of difference, but good to see him take a stand.0 -
We cannot assume votes for anything unless we see a clear aye or nay for a proposal. As close to a victory as May is getting I suspectAndy_Cooke said:Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.
Take out the Cabinet votes for the WA and all four of them are more popular.0 -
Dodds for cheese and pineapple from Mutti.0
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No other party is willing to compromise either -dr_spyn said:0 -
Lol what a chump. He needs to compromise. Sincerely held beliefs my arse.dr_spyn said:0 -
Just catching up - is it all sorted, now that parliament has taken control?0
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Whatever happened to applause not happening in the Commons?0
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2nd ref only 12 votes adrift. And 3 softest options all came closer than May's deal.0
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Boles off left stump.0
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It's been organised by Letwin so what do you think...Richard_Nabavi said:Just catching up - is it all sorted, now that parliament has taken control?
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Incidentally DUP seem to have recanted their absentions and voted AGAINST everything, the effect of which was to ensure that "a Customs Union" failed.0
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Great point by the wonderful Ken Clarke0
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I suspect the Grantham and Stamford Conservatives will chose a local next time after Davies and Boles.IanB2 said:Boles resigns from the Tory party
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Ah, yes.GIN1138 said:
It's been organised by Letwin so what do you think...Richard_Nabavi said:Just catching up - is it all sorted, now that parliament has taken control?
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Because of cabinet abstentions and no Tory whipping operation. Line those two up against any of these options and suddenly the majority against moves into the hundreds.anothernick said:2nd ref only 12 votes adrift. And 3 softest options all came closer than May's deal.
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Boles looks a right idiot throwing a strop like that, and I am broadly in favour of what he proposes.0
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Boles seems a thoughtful and decent chap, but I don't see that his reasoning holds up - The Commons has not done what he wanted, so he's off?0
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Ken telling the house the truth: a"not very political" house0
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Cabinet should do the same on Wednesday.TheWhiteRabbit said:Incidentally DUP seem to have recanted their absentions and voted AGAINST everything, the effect of which was to ensure that "a Customs Union" failed.
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This discussion has been closed.