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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and

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  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    If true, does Mr Bollocks to Brexit get a say?
    Yes. So presumably in such an eventuality the motion would pass?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Vince Cable says he abstained on the soft Brexit options.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    sarissa said:

    Rob Hastings

    Verified account

    @robhastings
    6h6 hours ago
    More
    Inspired by Cooper-Boles and Kyle-Wilson, my dad and I have come up with some alternative parliamentary amendments:

    Creasy-Bottomley
    Pound-Pincher
    Cash-Grant
    Fysh-Brine
    McDonald-Berger
    Hands-Onn
    Costa-Coffey
    Fox-Hunt
    David-Bowie
    Twist-Turner
    Flint-Stone

    Cherry-Stone
    Lynch-Law
    Field-Gray
    Wood-Turner

    You may have hit on a way to make Parliament interesting!
    Brake-Law
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    I wonder whether No10 could propose a series of indicative votes on Wednesday:

    Deal

    Deal with CM2

    Deal with CU

    No Deal

    Then see how it falls out
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    At this rate it really is going to come down to a Revoke vs No Deal ballot on April 11th.

    That would be odd when two of the options were so close last time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134

    If true, does Mr Bollocks to Brexit get a say?
    Yes. So presumably in such an eventuality the motion would pass?
    I would guess though May has cover to ignore it, as the cabinet didn't vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Too many abstentions still. I'm quite annoyed at the government for playing silly buggers on this. I get it, they didn't want there to be these votes, well tough, suck it up and contribute properly.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    If true then enough is enough. Prorogue parliament and end this farce.
    "sovereignty"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    dots said:

    https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/

    And has incorporated 75% of EU law into its own law
    a Norway government reportwhich says “Norway has incorporated approximately three-quarters of all EU legislative acts into Norwegian legislation
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/07/20/how-much-do-non-eu-countries-give-up-for-access-to-the-single-market-more-than-brexiteers-will-like/
    But by being semi detached member has adopted very large share of EU regulations – without any voice influencing them

    Not quite sure that is a good example for brexit, as it’s not entirely honest to say they are out of it in the way a true brexit will allow us to say it

    No it hasn't. That is simply wrong. The vast majority of EU law does not apply to EFTA members because it only pertains to the Single Market. The actual amount of EU legislation incorporated into Norwegian law is less than 30% according to the Norwegian Government.

    https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/5d3982d042a2472eb1b20639cd8b2341/no/pdfs/nou201220120002000dddpdfs.pdf#page=795

    And the Norwegians are involved in every stage of the development of new EEA legislation up to the final vote. The idea that they are just blindly taking laws from the EU is bullshit.

    On the question of money, Norway pays around 300 million Euros a year to the EU for Single Market and programme access. The amount paid is based on GDP and with our larger GDP that amount would be around £3 billion.
    Why does Fullfact say Norway pays £740m per year?
    Because they are including the Norway Fund which is not necessary for Single Market Access. It is effectively the equivalent of our overseas aid and is designed to help improve equality amongst European Nations
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    spudgfsh said:

    sarissa said:

    Rob Hastings

    Verified account

    @robhastings
    6h6 hours ago
    More
    Inspired by Cooper-Boles and Kyle-Wilson, my dad and I have come up with some alternative parliamentary amendments:

    Creasy-Bottomley
    Pound-Pincher
    Cash-Grant
    Fysh-Brine
    McDonald-Berger
    Hands-Onn
    Costa-Coffey
    Fox-Hunt
    David-Bowie
    Twist-Turner
    Flint-Stone

    Cherry-Stone
    Lynch-Law
    Field-Gray
    Wood-Turner

    You may have hit on a way to make Parliament interesting!
    Brake-Law
    Brake-Cable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    If true then enough is enough. Prorogue parliament and end this farce.
    Maybe part of the problem is once again they knew it was not end of the line? With Wednesday also set aside for votes MPs will continue to half arse it, or some of them at any rate.

    But I'm hopeful something will pass.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    I have been delving a bit into customs unions in particular from Anna Jerzewska, Dmitry Grozoubinski, Peter Ungphakorn, David Henig and Sam Lowe who are A grade trade policy experts. They broadly agree on customs unions that;

    • Customs Unions are complex. It isn't a case of customs unions good or customs unions bad.
    • The UK and the EU have a lot of options in how they draft their customs union and we shouldn't expect it to look like the Turkish one.
    • The UK could probably get the EU to insist on its inclusion in every trade agreement the EU makes. The UK has sufficient economic weight to make that attractive to both the EU and the third county. The customs union would have to include agriculture in that case (also needed for the Irish border). The UK would have to accept having the deals is more important than having an independent trade policy.
    • The UK would need to follow EU rules.
    • All the experts think a customs union should be considered and that a workable customs union is possible.
    Again, that's all theory and it isn't tenable for the UK to be in a customs union (even if the EU agree to reciprocity on trade with non-EU partners) in the long term. The UK economy is simply too big not to have an independent trade and regulatory policy. It would be a good place to land for 5-7 years but beyond that we'd need to develop our own trade policy and independent regulatory standards, especially for the services sector where our markets are far more developed than the EU.
    Customs unions don't apply to services. It's not all or nothing on trade policy as it applies to customs unions either. We can tap into the EU and get a set of arrangements that deliver much less friction in our trade overall, but at the cost of doing what we are told
    But that's the issue, it isn't tenable for the UK to be subordinate to the EU. The economy is too large, a customs union of some kind is a good landing spot in the short term, which is why the backstop makes some kind of sense, but in the long term we will need an independent trade and regulatory policy. Less trade friction can be delivered independently and the advantages of not being subordinate on regulations is fairly self explanatory.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    spudgfsh said:

    sarissa said:

    Rob Hastings

    Verified account

    @robhastings
    6h6 hours ago
    More
    Inspired by Cooper-Boles and Kyle-Wilson, my dad and I have come up with some alternative parliamentary amendments:

    Creasy-Bottomley
    Pound-Pincher
    Cash-Grant
    Fysh-Brine
    McDonald-Berger
    Hands-Onn
    Costa-Coffey
    Fox-Hunt
    David-Bowie
    Twist-Turner
    Flint-Stone

    Cherry-Stone
    Lynch-Law
    Field-Gray
    Wood-Turner

    You may have hit on a way to make Parliament interesting!
    Brake-Law
    May-Brake - Law
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    At least seven from my university joined IS, says captured fighter

    An Islamic State fighter held in Syria has told the BBC he was one of at least seven students and ex-students from University of Westminster to join IS.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47772772
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    spudgfsh said:

    sarissa said:

    Rob Hastings

    Verified account

    @robhastings
    6h6 hours ago
    More
    Inspired by Cooper-Boles and Kyle-Wilson, my dad and I have come up with some alternative parliamentary amendments:

    Creasy-Bottomley
    Pound-Pincher
    Cash-Grant
    Fysh-Brine
    McDonald-Berger
    Hands-Onn
    Costa-Coffey
    Fox-Hunt
    David-Bowie
    Twist-Turner
    Flint-Stone

    Cherry-Stone
    Lynch-Law
    Field-Gray
    Wood-Turner

    You may have hit on a way to make Parliament interesting!
    Brake-Law
    Brake-Cable
    Head-Desk
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    If true then enough is enough. Prorogue parliament and end this farce.
    Maybe part of the problem is once again they knew it was not end of the line? With Wednesday also set aside for votes MPs will continue to half arse it, or some of them at any rate.

    But I'm hopeful something will pass.
    There's at least another week of this... Nothing will get a positive vote until next Tuesday...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Field-Gardiner
    Djanogly-Bone
    Cherry-Baker
  • Common Market 2.0 last week was:

    Voting in favour: 36 Conservatives, 143 Labour MPs, 1 Lib Dem, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs, 4 Independents
    Voting against: 225 Conservatives, 42 Labour MPs, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Green MP, 14 Independents

    We can now add in the SNP (35) and see what happens if you assume Labour split like they did on their own bill, now they are whipped in favour (226/12)

    Voting in favour: 36 Conservatives, 226 Labour MPs, 35 SNP, 1 Lib Dem, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs, 4 Independents (316)
    Voting against: 225 Conservatives, 12 Labour, 1 LD, 1 Green, 14 Ind (253)

    Which passes comfortably. So you could play around with lab (and a handful of inds) a bit and still get a pass.

    How many SNP mps ?
    You're seeing things Big_G, I definitely did not forget GE 2017 happened
    I have no idea what you are talking about. There are 35 snps in the HOC
    I made a mistake in my original post, which I have now corrected.

    Fair play, that is easily done these days
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    dots said:


    https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/

    And 75% of laws dreamt up by EU for Norway to incorporate into theirs.

    a Norway government reportwhich says “Norway has incorporated approximately three-quarters of all EU legislative acts into Norwegian legislation
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/07/20/how-much-do-non-eu-countries-give-up-for-access-to-the-single-market-more-than-brexiteers-will-like/
    But by being semi detached member has adopted very large share of EU regulations – without any voice influencing them

    Norway option. The truth?

    No. What is the benefit of their oil per head compared to ours? It has to be part of the equation if you think a political set up is working fine somewhere.

    Still repeating the same old rubbish. I already showed you the link to the Norwegian Government's own figures on how much EU law is incorporated into Norwegian law. I suspect the Norwegian's have a much better handle on this than your secondary and rather dubious sources.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    That sounds like an awful episode of Gogglebox.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    At least seven from my university joined IS, says captured fighter

    An Islamic State fighter held in Syria has told the BBC he was one of at least seven students and ex-students from University of Westminster to join IS.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47772772

    Why are the BBC giving them a platform?

    It isn't news.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    dots said:

    dots said:

    dots said:



    Are we allowed to use the word vassalage without being accused of promoting violence?

    To put it more technically, we would move to keeping the EU rules, simply giving up political influence over them. That is what you are suggesting?

    At some point 99% of the population will say, this is silly, if we are having those rules we might as well have the political influence over them. And we’ll be back to square one?

    That is certainly not what the Norway option means at all.
    Stats don’t reveal truth when there are two different populations, climates, cultures, economies. Norway certainly has a bit of oil revenue to sweeten public spending and hence their populace’s perceptions. Yet each Norwegian household still pay almost as much into the EU as UK does now? That’s a funny definition of out?
    No it doesn't. Some of us on here looked in detail at this around the time of the referendum and the UK equivalent commitment if we had a Norway Deal would be something around £3bn a year. It is massively less than now.

    You are also wrong on the influence that Norway has over policy making as part of the EEA agreement.
    https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/

    And has incorporated 75% of EU law into its own law
    a Norway government reportwhich says “Norway has incorporated approximately three-quarters of all EU legislative acts into Norwegian legislation
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/07/20/how-much-do-non-eu-countries-give-up-for-access-to-the-single-market-more-than-brexiteers-will-like/
    But by being semi detached member has adopted very large share of EU regulations – without any voice influencing them

    Not quite sure that is a good example for brexit, as it’s not entirely honest to say they are out of it in the way a true brexit will allow us to say it
    That report cites 69.7% of directives and 17.5% of regulations for a total of 28.1% of the EU acquis (page 795 of the report cited in Full Fact).

    Those who want to spin it in a certain way cite the first number and round it up to 75%.

    (Seriously, am I the only person who actually reads cited links and reports?)
    Indeed. This is why I posted to the original Norwegian source.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    If true then enough is enough. Prorogue parliament and end this farce.
    Maybe part of the problem is once again they knew it was not end of the line? With Wednesday also set aside for votes MPs will continue to half arse it, or some of them at any rate.

    But I'm hopeful something will pass.
    Isn't Wednesday supposed to be about legislating to force the government to implement tonight's decision?

    If no decision is taken tonight then it's time for this farce to end.

    Give them one final chance to stop ******* about and vote for May's deal or failing that we No Deal a week on Friday.

    One way or another this has to end!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289

    Field-Gardiner
    Djanogly-Bone
    Cherry-Baker

    Djangoly-Bone wins!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    How did ElectionMaps do when predicting the results last time?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    I have been delving a bit into customs unions in particular from Anna Jerzewska, Dmitry Grozoubinski, Peter Ungphakorn, David Henig and Sam Lowe who are A grade trade policy experts. They broadly agree on customs unions that;

    • Customs Unions are complex. It isn't a case of customs unions good or customs unions bad.
    • The UK and the EU have a lot of options in how they draft their customs union and we shouldn't expect it to look like the Turkish one.
    • The UK could probably get the EU to insist on its inclusion in every trade agreement the EU makes. The UK has sufficient economic weight to make that attractive to both the EU and the third county. The customs union would have to include agriculture in that case (also needed for the Irish border). The UK would have to accept having the deals is more important than having an independent trade policy.
    • The UK would need to follow EU rules.
    • All the experts think a customs union should be considered and that a workable customs union is possible.
    Again, that's all theory and it isn't tenable for the UK to be in a customs union (even if the EU agree to reciprocity on trade with non-EU partners) in the long term. The UK economy is simply too big not to have an independent trade and regulatory policy. It would be a good place to land for 5-7 years but beyond that we'd need to develop our own trade policy and independent regulatory standards, especially for the services sector where our markets are far more developed than the EU.
    Customs unions don't apply to services. It's not all or nothing on trade policy as it applies to customs unions either. We can tap into the EU and get a set of arrangements that deliver much less friction in our trade overall, but at the cost of doing what we are told
    But that's the issue, it isn't tenable for the UK to be subordinate to the EU. The economy is too large, a customs union of some kind is a good landing spot in the short term, which is why the backstop makes some kind of sense, but in the long term we will need an independent trade and regulatory policy. Less trade friction can be delivered independently and the advantages of not being subordinate on regulations is fairly self explanatory.
    That's an awful lot of bold assertions with no logic, rationale, or working examples provided.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    I hope both his hands are on the desk...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited April 2019

    At least seven from my university joined IS, says captured fighter

    An Islamic State fighter held in Syria has told the BBC he was one of at least seven students and ex-students from University of Westminster to join IS.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47772772

    Why are the BBC giving them a platform?

    It isn't news.
    Another key extremist at University of Westminster was Abukar's brother Makhzumi. He is serving a seven-year jail term after pleading guilty in 2016 to a million-pound fraud to steal the savings of pensioners.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47772772

    Guess who lobbied to get one of this gang out of jail for Christmas?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2019
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    I have been delving a bit into customs unions in particular from Anna Jerzewska, Dmitry Grozoubinski, Peter Ungphakorn, David Henig and Sam Lowe who are A grade trade policy experts. They broadly agree on customs unions that;

    • Customs Unions are complex. It isn't a case of customs unions good or customs unions bad.
    • The UK and the EU have a lot of options in how they draft their customs union and we shouldn't expect it to look like the Turkish one.
    • The UK could probably get the EU to insist on its inclusion in every trade agreement the EU makes. The UK has sufficient economic weight to make that attractive to both the EU and the third county. The customs union would have to include agriculture in that case (also needed for the Irish border). The UK would have to accept having the deals is more important than having an independent trade policy.
    • The UK would need to follow EU rules.
    • All the experts think a customs union should be considered and that a workable customs union is possible.
    Again, that's all theory and it isn't tenable for the UK to be in a customs union (even if the EU agree to reciprocity on trade with non-EU partners) in the long term. The UK economy is simply too big not to have an independent trade and regulatory policy. It would be a good place to land for 5-7 years but beyond that we'd need to develop our own trade policy and independent regulatory standards, especially for the services sector where our markets are far more developed than the EU.
    Customs unions don't apply to services. It's not all or nothing on trade policy as it applies to customs unions either. We can tap into the EU and get a set of arrangements that deliver much less friction in our trade overall, but at the cost of doing what we are told
    But that's the issue, it isn't tenable for the UK to be subordinate to the EU. The economy is too large, a customs union of some kind is a good landing spot in the short term, which is why the backstop makes some kind of sense, but in the long term we will need an independent trade and regulatory policy. Less trade friction can be delivered independently and the advantages of not being subordinate on regulations is fairly self explanatory.
    Less trade friction definitely won't be delivered independently. The the advantages of not being subordinate on regulations isn't actually self explanatory. That's why people standardise
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    How did ElectionMaps do when predicting the results last time?
    At MV3 it had

    For: 266 (+24)
    Against: 368 (-23)

    DEFEAT by 102 Votes (-47)

    So not great.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    spudgfsh said:

    sarissa said:

    Rob Hastings

    Verified account

    @robhastings
    6h6 hours ago
    More
    Inspired by Cooper-Boles and Kyle-Wilson, my dad and I have come up with some alternative parliamentary amendments:

    Creasy-Bottomley
    Pound-Pincher
    Cash-Grant
    Fysh-Brine
    McDonald-Berger
    Hands-Onn
    Costa-Coffey
    Fox-Hunt
    David-Bowie
    Twist-Turner
    Flint-Stone

    Cherry-Stone
    Lynch-Law
    Field-Gray
    Wood-Turner

    You may have hit on a way to make Parliament interesting!
    Brake-Law
    Brake-Cable
    Head-Desk
    Pissup-Brewery
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    @Andyjs

    Initial Indicative Votes Projection:

    Single Market Deal: Pass by 4

    Free Trade Agreement: Lose by 30
    2nd Ref: Lose by 42
    Customs Union Deal: Lose by 82
    May's Deal: Lose by 142
    No Deal: Lose by 456
    Revoke A50: Lose by 506

    Indicative Votes Results:

    Customs Union: Defeat by 8
    2nd Referendum: Defeat by 27
    Labour Plan: Defear by 70
    Common Market 2.0: Defeat by 95
    Revoke A50: Defeat by 109
    No Deal: Defeat by 240
    Contingent Arrangements: Defeat by 283
    EEA/EFTA: Defeat by 312
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Surely the reasonable follow up to that would be to say there is clearly significant support for it and put it forward for a proper vote. And I say that as someone who thinks it is a very bad idea. But at the point where it is tied it would be a poor show to just dismiss it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    At this rate it really is going to come down to a Revoke vs No Deal ballot on April 11th.

    How could Common Market 2.0 fail with the SNP and Lab whipping for it?
    Perhaps the rumours are wrong? We only have about another half-a-million years to wait before we find out.

    I can only assume that all these ballots are being translated into Norman French, inscribed upon vellum scrolls and delivered to the palace, where they will be individually proclaimed unto Her Majesty by heralds in full 15th Century ceremonial dress, before the results can be announced in Parliament.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    AndyJS said:

    How did ElectionMaps do when predicting the results last time?
    At MV3 it had

    For: 266 (+24)
    Against: 368 (-23)

    DEFEAT by 102 Votes (-47)

    So not great.
    Strange. It seemed obvious to me that MV3 would get above 275.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    How did ElectionMaps do when predicting the results last time?
    Mixed bag, but not great?
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110602936353214464

  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    dots said:

    https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/

    And has incorporated 75% of EU law into its own law
    a Norway government reportwhich says “Norway has incorporated approximately three-quarters of all EU legislative acts into Norwegian legislation
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/07/20/how-much-do-non-eu-countries-give-up-for-access-to-the-single-market-more-than-brexiteers-will-like/
    But by being semi detached member has adopted very large share of EU regulations – without any voice influencing them

    Not quite sure that is a good example for brexit, as it’s not entirely honest to say they are out of it in the way a true brexit will allow us to say it

    No it hasn't. That is simply wrong. The vast majority of EU law does not apply to EFTA members because it only pertains to the Single Market. The actual amount of EU legislation incorporated into Norwegian law is less than 30% according to the Norwegian Government.

    https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/5d3982d042a2472eb1b20639cd8b2341/no/pdfs/nou201220120002000dddpdfs.pdf#page=795

    And the Norwegians are involved in every stage of the development of new EEA legislation up to the final vote. The idea that they are just blindly taking laws from the EU is bullshit.

    On the question of money, Norway pays around 300 million Euros a year to the EU for Single Market and programme access. The amount paid is based on GDP and with our larger GDP that amount would be around £3 billion.
    Why does Fullfact say Norway pays £740m per year?
    Because they are including the Norway Fund which is not necessary for Single Market Access. It is effectively the equivalent of our overseas aid and is designed to help improve equality amongst European Nations
    Hence my suggestion, how can you compare society’s benefitting differently in investment home and abroad, the impact on taxation and households, and a general sense of happiness and well being, due to income from oil revenue? What could work fine in one situation with a populace very happy could be regressive in a different culture, different psychology with deindustrial, health and social care deficits stacking up.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    kle4 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    At this rate it really is going to come down to a Revoke vs No Deal ballot on April 11th.

    How could Common Market 2.0 fail with the SNP and Lab whipping for it?
    Perhaps the rumours are wrong? We only have about another half-a-million years to wait before we find out.

    I can only assume that all these ballots are being translated into Norman French, inscribed upon vellum scrolls and delivered to the palace, where they will be individually proclaimed unto Her Majesty by heralds in full 15th Century ceremonial dress, before the results can be announced in Parliament.
    There's only 4 options tonight, so they could probably have had 4 divisions in less time than this, surely.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited April 2019
    FF43 said:


    Less trade friction definitely won't be delivered independently. The the advantages of not being subordinate on regulations isn't actually self explanatory. That's why people standardise

    Why wouldn't it, if a trade deal with the EU delivers less trade friction for non-EU countries then how does it follow that UK-third country trade deals wouldn't reduce trade friction?

    As for regulations, having an independent policy gets us a seat at the standardisation table, not having one means accepting whatever the EU dictates. In the short term the latter would be fine, especially since we're starting from an identical base, but in the long term it wouldn't be acceptable for the world's fifth largest economy to be a rule taker.
  • How crap is Anthony Taylor?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Gets me every time. The grandiose language. The seemingly sincere taking of affront at everything. It's so dead on.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Common Market 2.0 last week was:

    Voting in favour: 36 Conservatives, 143 Labour MPs, 1 Lib Dem, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs, 4 Independents
    Voting against: 225 Conservatives, 42 Labour MPs, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Green MP, 14 Independents

    We can now add in the SNP (35) and see what happens if you assume Labour split like they did on their own bill, now they are whipped in favour (226/12)

    Voting in favour: 36 Conservatives, 226 Labour MPs, 35 SNP, 1 Lib Dem, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs, 4 Independents (306)
    Voting against: 225 Conservatives, 12 Labour, 1 LD, 1 Green, 14 Ind (253)

    Which passes comfortably. So you could play around with lab (and a handful of inds) a bit and still get a pass.

    That would entail 30 Labour who didn't just abstain but actually vote Nay to vote Aye this time.

    The idea that's indicative of anything other than Parliament's nonsense is absurd.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    How did ElectionMaps do when predicting the results last time?
    Mixed bag, but not great?
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110602936353214464

    Figures were far too high - and made no allowance for Abstentions by Cabinet and other MPs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    My gut is telling me both CU and CM2.0 will pass tonight, but a confirmatory referendum will lose narrowly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    At this rate it really is going to come down to a Revoke vs No Deal ballot on April 11th.

    How could Common Market 2.0 fail with the SNP and Lab whipping for it?
    Perhaps the rumours are wrong? We only have about another half-a-million years to wait before we find out.

    I can only assume that all these ballots are being translated into Norman French, inscribed upon vellum scrolls and delivered to the palace, where they will be individually proclaimed unto Her Majesty by heralds in full 15th Century ceremonial dress, before the results can be announced in Parliament.
    There's only 4 options tonight, so they could probably have had 4 divisions in less time than this, surely.
    There's no probably about it, it only takes 10-15 minutes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    How did ElectionMaps do when predicting the results last time?
    Mixed bag, but not great?
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110602936353214464

    Thanks.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Most ayes: CU 1.34, CM and 2nd referendum 7.20, revoke 70.


    Betfair still thinks 70% CU passes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
    Yanks presumably a few hours behind?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    At least seven from my university joined IS, says captured fighter

    An Islamic State fighter held in Syria has told the BBC he was one of at least seven students and ex-students from University of Westminster to join IS.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47772772

    Why are the BBC giving them a platform?

    It isn't news.
    Another key extremist at University of Westminster was Abukar's brother Makhzumi. He is serving a seven-year jail term after pleading guilty in 2016 to a million-pound fraud to steal the savings of pensioners.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47772772

    Guess who lobbied to get one of this gang out of jail for Christmas?
    Don't need to guess, sadly
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    kle4 said:

    Gets me every time. The grandiose language. The seemingly sincere taking of affront at everything. It's so dead on.
    That and the QT sketch...and due to some personal experience*, the "I am significantly richer than yeeeeeewwww" with the guy in the hotel bar.

    * its a very good story and has a politician connection, but I don't think I should share on a public forum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    My gut is telling me both CU and CM2.0 will pass tonight, but a confirmatory referendum will lose narrowly.

    No worries, they'll add that back in to the CU and CM2.0 options - that way the indicative votes can mean even less.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    My gut is telling me both CU and CM2.0 will pass tonight, but a confirmatory referendum will lose narrowly.

    Good because the confirmatory referendum solves nothing. It's a con trick.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
    Yanks presumably a few hours behind?
    It was posted 12:25 pm local time I believe.

    The fact it is vaguely believable makes it a good April fool.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    At this rate it really is going to come down to a Revoke vs No Deal ballot on April 11th.

    How could Common Market 2.0 fail with the SNP and Lab whipping for it?
    Perhaps the rumours are wrong? We only have about another half-a-million years to wait before we find out.

    I can only assume that all these ballots are being translated into Norman French, inscribed upon vellum scrolls and delivered to the palace, where they will be individually proclaimed unto Her Majesty by heralds in full 15th Century ceremonial dress, before the results can be announced in Parliament.
    There's only 4 options tonight, so they could probably have had 4 divisions in less time than this, surely.
    There's no probably about it, it only takes 10-15 minutes.
    The reason that they are doing it this way is to prevent the result of one having an impact on the next. even if they don't announce the votes MPs will be able to work out if certain votes have failed (even if you can't determine if one has passed)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    MaxPB said:

    My gut is telling me both CU and CM2.0 will pass tonight, but a confirmatory referendum will lose narrowly.

    Good because the confirmatory referendum solves nothing. It's a con trick.
    That would be at least the third rejection of another referendum... unless I am misremembering
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Common Market 2.0 last week was:

    Voting in favour: 36 Conservatives, 143 Labour MPs, 1 Lib Dem, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs, 4 Independents
    Voting against: 225 Conservatives, 42 Labour MPs, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Green MP, 14 Independents

    We can now add in the SNP (35) and see what happens if you assume Labour split like they did on their own bill, now they are whipped in favour (226/12)

    Voting in favour: 36 Conservatives, 226 Labour MPs, 35 SNP, 1 Lib Dem, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs, 4 Independents (306)
    Voting against: 225 Conservatives, 12 Labour, 1 LD, 1 Green, 14 Ind (253)

    Which passes comfortably. So you could play around with lab (and a handful of inds) a bit and still get a pass.

    That would entail 30 Labour who didn't just abstain but actually vote Nay to vote Aye this time.

    The idea that's indicative of anything other than Parliament's nonsense is absurd.
    Last week it wasn't whipped, now if is - plus a charm offensive in the meantime.

    I'm not saying only 12 Labour MPs won't - I'm saying stick a finger in the air and you see that victory is not as unlikely as the current 6/1 suggests
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently we still have to wait another hour for this ridiculously slow vote count to be completed, but rumour has it (according to the BBC) that the outcome is going to be No No No No.

    At this rate it really is going to come down to a Revoke vs No Deal ballot on April 11th.

    How could Common Market 2.0 fail with the SNP and Lab whipping for it?
    Perhaps the rumours are wrong? We only have about another half-a-million years to wait before we find out.

    I can only assume that all these ballots are being translated into Norman French, inscribed upon vellum scrolls and delivered to the palace, where they will be individually proclaimed unto Her Majesty by heralds in full 15th Century ceremonial dress, before the results can be announced in Parliament.
    There's only 4 options tonight, so they could probably have had 4 divisions in less time than this, surely.
    There's no probably about it, it only takes 10-15 minutes.
    The reason that they are doing it this way is to prevent the result of one having an impact on the next. even if they don't announce the votes MPs will be able to work out if certain votes have failed (even if you can't determine if one has passed)
    Makes a certain sense, although frankly given they can all vote for however many options as they like it shouldn't make a difference. It's another example of them pissing about over procedure to avoid the real issue, which is them making a decision.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
    Yanks presumably a few hours behind?
    It was posted 12:25 pm local time I believe.

    The fact it is vaguely believable makes it a good April fool.
    Surely the best April Fool was today's Mirror front page.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    dots said:


    Hence my suggestion, how can you compare society’s benefitting differently in investment home and abroad, the impact on taxation and households, and a general sense of happiness and well being, due to income from oil revenue? What could work fine in one situation with a populace very happy could be regressive in a different culture, different psychology with deindustrial, health and social care deficits stacking up.

    The problem is you have now moved on from quoting false figures and making uninformed statements about how EFTA works to debating happiness in Norway - and with someone who lived and worked there for 15 years.

    But the basic position is that if we did choose the Norway option we would pay a lot less to the EU for Single Market access and would be subject to perhaps only 30% of the legislation that we currently have to adopt from the EU. All whilst keeping our trade with them.

    It is a very attractive proposition for anyone who is not bothered about the freedom of movement issue.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    MaxPB said:

    My gut is telling me both CU and CM2.0 will pass tonight, but a confirmatory referendum will lose narrowly.

    Good because the confirmatory referendum solves nothing. It's a con trick.
    That would be at least the third rejection of another referendum... unless I am misremembering
    True.

    Although at this stage everything is now racking up multiple rejections, so does that tell us anything either way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
    Yanks presumably a few hours behind?
    It was posted 12:25 pm local time I believe.

    The fact it is vaguely believable makes it a good April fool.
    The image seems like the givaway to me. That cannot be a serious way to hint that you want to run on a centrist platform.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
    Yanks presumably a few hours behind?
    It was posted 12:25 pm local time I believe.

    The fact it is vaguely believable makes it a good April fool.
    Surely the best April Fool was today's Mirror front page.
    I didn't see it...was it May to set down immediately?
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Paul Waugh suggesting a senior shadow cabinet member broke the whip to vote against Kyle amendment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
    Yanks presumably a few hours behind?
    It was posted 12:25 pm local time I believe.

    The fact it is vaguely believable makes it a good April fool.
    Surely the best April Fool was today's Mirror front page.
    I didn't see it...was it May to set down immediately?
    Labour "We're ready for government"
  • Division bell ringing - 10 mins to result
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Results in 10 Mins
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:
    You would have thought, but I was under the impression April 1st had to be done before midday, no?
    Yanks presumably a few hours behind?
    It was posted 12:25 pm local time I believe.

    The fact it is vaguely believable makes it a good April fool.
    Surely the best April Fool was today's Mirror front page.
    I didn't see it...was it May to set down immediately?
    Labour "We're ready for government"
    As I say, April's have to be vaguely believable...that is clearly stuff of la la land.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    No, in 2011 the police conducted 1.2m stop-and-searches in England and Wales. In 2017 that figure was around 300,000 (see chart) and knife crime has risen accordingly.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/01/18/can-an-increase-in-stop-and-search-cut-knife-crime
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    kle4 said:

    spudgfsh said:


    The reason that they are doing it this way is to prevent the result of one having an impact on the next. even if they don't announce the votes MPs will be able to work out if certain votes have failed (even if you can't determine if one has passed)

    Makes a certain sense, although frankly given they can all vote for however many options as they like it shouldn't make a difference. It's another example of them pissing about over procedure to avoid the real issue, which is them making a decision.
    The other reason they are taking their time is probably because they don't was a repeat of the corrections they had to make on friday in announcing the previous votes
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    No, in 2011 the police conducted 1.2m stop-and-searches in England and Wales. In 2017 that figure was around 300,000 (see chart) and knife crime has risen accordingly.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/01/18/can-an-increase-in-stop-and-search-cut-knife-crime
    Is the difference here *section 60* searches? I assume there are a range of police powers?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    CU Yes 1.6-1.8. Drifting.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    CU prices on the move, not so sure to pass.
  • My 16yo daughter surprised me tonight by sitting down and watching some of the debate in parliament on TV. After 10 minutes she turned to me and said - "I think about half of those MPs are too scared of the voters and the other half are not scared enough. I just can't tell which are which." That is now making my brain hurt.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    So what happens if parliament rejects all the options again?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MaxPB said:

    So what happens if parliament rejects all the options again?

    MV4/WAV2?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    My 16yo daughter surprised me tonight by sitting down and watching some of the debate in parliament on TV. After 10 minutes she turned to me and said - "I think about half of those MPs are too scared of the voters and the other half are not scared enough. I just can't tell which are which." That is now making my brain hurt.

    Smart girl.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    MaxPB said:

    So what happens if parliament rejects all the options again?

    Letwin and Bercow make some other shit up
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited April 2019
    stjohn said:

    CU Yes 1.6-1.8. Drifting.

    I am surprised somebody hasn't been done by now, as clearly on these votes some people with insider info are trading on that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:


    Less trade friction definitely won't be delivered independently. The the advantages of not being subordinate on regulations isn't actually self explanatory. That's why people standardise

    Why wouldn't it, if a trade deal with the EU delivers less trade friction for non-EU countries then how does it follow that UK-third country trade deals wouldn't reduce trade friction?

    As for regulations, having an independent policy gets us a seat at the standardisation table, not having one means accepting whatever the EU dictates. In the short term the latter would be fine, especially since we're starting from an identical base, but in the long term it wouldn't be acceptable for the world's fifth largest economy to be a rule taker.
    The customs union would definitely deliver much less trade friction with the EU, which makes up about half our trade. Depending on agreement with the third country it should either reduce trade friction on things like cumulative rules of origin or be neutral, with friction being reduced across the board. It is telling that the few deals that have been rolled over by the DExEU are significantly worse than the EU arrangements they replace.

    Your products are only compliant with local standards if the other party says they are. Only the EU and to an extent the US have the power and inclination to impose standards in that way. We are going to have to follow those standards anyway so we might as well formalise it.
  • My 16yo daughter surprised me tonight by sitting down and watching some of the debate in parliament on TV. After 10 minutes she turned to me and said - "I think about half of those MPs are too scared of the voters and the other half are not scared enough. I just can't tell which are which." That is now making my brain hurt.

    A very perceptive young lady
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    stjohn said:

    CU Yes 1.6-1.8. Drifting.

    I am surprised somebody hasn't been done by now, as clearly on these votes some people with insider info are trading on that.
    Until a minute ago CM2.0 drifted all the way to 8. We shall see.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    MaxPB said:

    My 16yo daughter surprised me tonight by sitting down and watching some of the debate in parliament on TV. After 10 minutes she turned to me and said - "I think about half of those MPs are too scared of the voters and the other half are not scared enough. I just can't tell which are which." That is now making my brain hurt.

    Smart girl.
    Fantastic quote. And yes, a very smart girl.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    dots said:


    Hence my suggestion, how can you compare society’s benefitting differently in investment home and abroad, the impact on taxation and households, and a general sense of happiness and well being, due to income from oil revenue? What could work fine in one situation with a populace very happy could be regressive in a different culture, different psychology with deindustrial, health and social care deficits stacking up.

    The problem is you have now moved on from quoting false figures and making uninformed statements about how EFTA works to debating happiness in Norway - and with someone who lived and worked there for 15 years.

    But the basic position is that if we did choose the Norway option we would pay a lot less to the EU for Single Market access and would be subject to perhaps only 30% of the legislation that we currently have to adopt from the EU. All whilst keeping our trade with them.

    It is a very attractive proposition for anyone who is not bothered about the freedom of movement issue.
    Let’s skip to the bottom line. We can trade facts to the point a brexit preference becomes abstract. like enjoying time spent with an Eskimo society it works very well, let’s copy them. But there are two killer facts undermining your preference. Norway is a Nordic country of 5 million people. The success or attractiveness of the Norway model is bogus because it is being underwritten by a wealth UK does not have.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    My 16yo daughter surprised me tonight by sitting down and watching some of the debate in parliament on TV. After 10 minutes she turned to me and said - "I think about half of those MPs are too scared of the voters and the other half are not scared enough. I just can't tell which are which." That is now making my brain hurt.

    Wow. She needs to apply for internship at a major newspaper immediately!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    edited April 2019

    HYUFD said:

    No, in 2011 the police conducted 1.2m stop-and-searches in England and Wales. In 2017 that figure was around 300,000 (see chart) and knife crime has risen accordingly.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/01/18/can-an-increase-in-stop-and-search-cut-knife-crime
    Is the difference here *section 60* searches? I assume there are a range of police powers?
    Yup.

    Comes down to the authorisation required and whether may a crime occur not will occur.

    Plus the stat the HYUFD is using is for England and Wales, the C4 stat is for the Met only.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    If true, does Mr Bollocks to Brexit get a say?
    Yes. So presumably in such an eventuality the motion would pass?
    It shouldn’t.

    The Speaker should maintain the status quo (“the house is not convinced”)

    But I am sure that Bercow will “innovate”
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142

    HYUFD said:

    No, in 2011 the police conducted 1.2m stop-and-searches in England and Wales. In 2017 that figure was around 300,000 (see chart) and knife crime has risen accordingly.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/01/18/can-an-increase-in-stop-and-search-cut-knife-crime
    Is the difference here *section 60* searches? I assume there are a range of police powers?
    Yes that will be the difference. Section 60 is one amongst several powers. Most stop and searches will be Section 1 PACE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    MaxPB said:

    So what happens if parliament rejects all the options again?

    A giant marshmallow man attacks Parliament....

    If we're lucky.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134

    MaxPB said:

    So what happens if parliament rejects all the options again?

    A giant marshmallow man attacks Parliament....

    If we're lucky.
    But who are we gonna call?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Charles said:

    If true, does Mr Bollocks to Brexit get a say?
    Yes. So presumably in such an eventuality the motion would pass?
    It shouldn’t.

    The Speaker should maintain the status quo (“the house is not convinced”)

    But I am sure that Bercow will “innovate”
    Seeing as these votes don't lead to any legislation perhaps he'll just declare it a draw.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    MaxPB said:

    So what happens if parliament rejects all the options again?

    A giant marshmallow man attacks Parliament....

    If we're lucky.
    But who are we gonna call?
    Giant hot chocolate...man?
  • Here we go
This discussion has been closed.