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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and

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  • Charles said:

    If true, does Mr Bollocks to Brexit get a say?
    Yes. So presumably in such an eventuality the motion would pass?
    It shouldn’t.

    The Speaker should maintain the status quo (“the house is not convinced”)

    But I am sure that Bercow will “innovate”
    Actually that's not the precedent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    Clarke:
    Ayes 273
    Noes 276

    Boles:
    Ayes 261
    Noes 282

    Kyle:
    Ayes 280
    Noes 292

    Cherry:
    Ayes 191
    Noes 292
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148
    The first question speaks volumes - 14 counties said the county game prepares players well for test cricket, 3 said it didn't. None so blind as those that won't see.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    No No No No
  • Good night for TM
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    HAHAHAHAHA still all f**ked
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Excellent chaos continues!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    People's Vote ahead again.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Nothing with a majority, Tories didn't rebel.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Oh dear.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    ahahahhahahahaha

    I've lost £10 but it has been 100% worth it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Hahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited April 2019
    All no? Heh. :D
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Back again on Wednesday?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Nein.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Good night for TM

    Why?

    Nothing. Has. Changed.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    AndyJS said:

    Clarke:
    Ayes 273
    Noes 276

    Boles:
    Ayes 261
    Noes 282

    Kyle:
    Ayes 280
    Noes 292

    Cherry:
    Ayes 191
    Noes 292

    Getting closer. But still, I long for the day when an omnishambles was just a tax on Cornish pasties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    No No No No

    Reduced from No No No No No No No, to No No No No.

    Next time it should be No No, ending in a decisive No.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    MV4 needed now.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Let's go no deal!

    #DRAX
  • Well, that's all gone tits up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Given that Parliament can't make its mind up, how about HMG take back control? :p
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    People's Vote ahead again.

    It isn't the people's vote though, put that in the frame and it will barely get to 200 ayes.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    No no, no no no no, no no no no, no no there's no limit.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CORBYN = KNOB
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Vote off between TM and CU?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    I reject your offer of quiche (and every other canape)....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    anti incumbency penalty rising
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    May's deal had the highest number of votes...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Oh, for goodness' sake.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Commons vote: No Deal versus Revocation, April 11th. It's on the way...
  • Corbyn wants another go !!!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    I told you didn't I? Anything Letwin is involved with will always be a complete **** up! :D
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Corbyn wants a third day FFS...whats going to change?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Well, that's all gone tits up.

    Yes, bit of an embarrassment for Letwin!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Blackford really is a #
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Corbyn is full of crap. The only reason its close is due to abstentions. Time for Tories to 3-line whip all of these ludicrous options if it happens again.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    dots said:

    dots said:


    Hence my suggestion, how can you compare society’s benefitting differently in investment home and abroad, the impact on taxation and households, and a general sense of happiness and well being, due to income from oil revenue? What could work fine in one situation with a populace very happy could be regressive in a different culture, different psychology with deindustrial, health and social care deficits stacking up.

    The problem is you have now moved on from quoting false figures and making uninformed statements about how EFTA works to debating happiness in Norway - and with someone who lived and worked there for 15 years.

    But the basic position is that if we did choose the Norway option we would pay a lot less to the EU for Single Market access and would be subject to perhaps only 30% of the legislation that we currently have to adopt from the EU. All whilst keeping our trade with them.

    It is a very attractive proposition for anyone who is not bothered about the freedom of movement issue.
    Let’s skip to the bottom line. We can trade facts to the point a brexit preference becomes abstract. like enjoying time spent with an Eskimo society it works very well, let’s copy them. But there are two killer facts undermining your preference. Norway is a Nordic country of 5 million people. The success or attractiveness of the Norway model is bogus because it is being underwritten by a wealth UK does not have.
    Nope. That is completely irrelevant. We are talking about basic facts. How much does Norway pay compared to the UK for single market access and how much of the EU legislation does it have to adopt. Neither of these things are dependent on how 'Nordic' each country is nor on how much oil wealth they have.

    You are using utterly irrelevant arguments to try and obfuscate after your basic figures were found to be false.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Surely if the options were narrowed down to the two most popular one of them would get through.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    Vote off between TM and CU?

    +1

    Surprised that CU was defeated.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.
    Take out the Cabinet votes for the WA and all four of them are more popular.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    The House Of Fools in all its glory on April Fools Day!!!!!! :D
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    dots said:

    dots said:


    Hence my suggestion, how can you compare society’s benefitting differently in investment home and abroad, the impact on taxation and households, and a general sense of happiness and well being, due to income from oil revenue? What could work fine in one situation with a populace very happy could be regressive in a different culture, different psychology with deindustrial, health and social care deficits stacking up.

    The problem is you have now moved on from quoting false figures and making uninformed statements about how EFTA works to debating happiness in Norway - and with someone who lived and worked there for 15 years.

    But the basic position is that if we did choose the Norway option we would pay a lot less to the EU for Single Market access and would be subject to perhaps only 30% of the legislation that we currently have to adopt from the EU. All whilst keeping our trade with them.

    It is a very attractive proposition for anyone who is not bothered about the freedom of movement issue.
    Let’s skip to the bottom line. We can trade facts to the point a brexit preference becomes abstract. like enjoying time spent with an Eskimo society it works very well, let’s copy them. But there are two killer facts undermining your preference. Norway is a Nordic country of 5 million people. The success or attractiveness of the Norway model is bogus because it is being underwritten by a wealth UK does not have.
    And there, in a nutshell, the entire brexit struggle. Are we strong, stable and wealthy with good times ahead. Or do we have to make decisions based on a downward trajectory and diminishing returns in the years and decades ahead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Indicative votes results

    Motion C : Customs Union (Clarke) For 276 against 273


    Motion D: Common Market 2.0 (Boles) For 261 Against 282


    Motion E: Confirmatory Public Vote (Kyle/Wilson) For 280 Against 292


    Motion G: Parliamentary Supremacy (Cherry) For 191 Against 292

    So no Motion again gets a majority but Customs Union again closest and none gets more than May's Deal, she may bring back her Deal again but Letwin now likely to try and switch to preference voting on Wednesday.



  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    AndyJS said:

    Surely if the options were narrowed down to the two most popular one of them would get through.

    An either / or might result in a tie :smile:
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Corbyn maketh no sense - once again
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    All the MPs are only interested in only their plan FFS....no compromise for anyone.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    Indicative votes results

    Motion C : Customs Union (Clarke) For 276 against 273


    Motion D: Common Market 2.0 (Boles) For 261 Against 282


    Motion E: Confirmatory Public Vote (Kyle/Wilson) For 280 Against 292


    Motion G: Parliamentary Supremacy (Cherry) For 191 Against 292

    So no Motion again gets a majority but Customs Union again closest and none gets more than May's Deal, she may bring back her Deal again but Letwin now likely to try and switch to preference voting on Wednesday.



    I realise D colon got turned into D:, but strangely fitting
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Blackford threatening indyref2 if no option agreed on to avoid No Deal
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.

    Talk about scraping the barrel? :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Boles quits the Tories
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Wow
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What the hell's going on with Nick Boles?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Boles having a strop.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    BOLES OUT
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.
    Take out the Cabinet votes for the WA and all four of them are more popular.

    Put the Tory whips against all of them and see how popular they are. The WA agreement gets closest with single party support. It's time for the Labour cowards to put the nation first and vote through the WA.
  • Nick Boles resigns live
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    "But the Commons can still avoid a no-deal Brexit, and avoid having to hold European elections, by voting for the PM’s deal this week."

    Is that actually true? I think the EU would agree, in the circumstances - but not sure it *has* agreed?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    Is he joining the CUKs?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Robert the Bruce just did a Point of Order.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Boles quits the Tories

    I thought he believed in following the will of the Commons, he has moaned about the goverment not doing that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Boles gone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Boles resigns from the Tory party
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Blimey Boles.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Boles - resigns the whip
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Sky News reporting Boles has defected from the Tories
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    LOL! Boles-Meltdown :D
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Boles on tour :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Boles just went
  • Scott_P said:
    That was a brilliant moment.

    Probably won't make a jot of difference, but good to see him take a stand.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Customs Union or TM Deal. Most votes wins. Have to avoid No Deal. 2nd Ref definitely not.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Boles has resigned the whip according to Sky News
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Boles is playing the ego card - sad
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    Scott_P said:
    That was a brilliant moment.

    Probably won't make a jot of difference, but good to see him take a stand.
    TIG alert?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019

    Well, the top three are all less unpopular than the WA.
    Take out the Cabinet votes for the WA and all four of them are more popular.

    We cannot assume votes for anything unless we see a clear aye or nay for a proposal. As close to a victory as May is getting I suspect
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Dodds for cheese and pineapple from Mutti.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    dr_spyn said:
    No other party is willing to compromise either -
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    dr_spyn said:
    Lol what a chump. He needs to compromise. Sincerely held beliefs my arse.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Just catching up - is it all sorted, now that parliament has taken control?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Whatever happened to applause not happening in the Commons?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    2nd ref only 12 votes adrift. And 3 softest options all came closer than May's deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Boles off left stump.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Just catching up - is it all sorted, now that parliament has taken control?

    It's been organised by Letwin so what do you think... ;)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Incidentally DUP seem to have recanted their absentions and voted AGAINST everything, the effect of which was to ensure that "a Customs Union" failed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,155
    edited April 2019
    Great point by the wonderful Ken Clarke
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    IanB2 said:

    Boles resigns from the Tory party

    I suspect the Grantham and Stamford Conservatives will chose a local next time after Davies and Boles.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    GIN1138 said:

    Just catching up - is it all sorted, now that parliament has taken control?

    It's been organised by Letwin so what do you think... ;)
    Ah, yes.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    MaxPB said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Lol what a chump. He needs to compromise. Sincerely held beliefs my arse.
    Given he had already said he would not stand again at the next election he is clearly having a strop at seeing his last chance of making his mark in politics go up in smoke.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    2nd ref only 12 votes adrift. And 3 softest options all came closer than May's deal.

    Because of cabinet abstentions and no Tory whipping operation. Line those two up against any of these options and suddenly the majority against moves into the hundreds.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    edited April 2019
    Boles looks a right idiot throwing a strop like that, and I am broadly in favour of what he proposes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Boles seems a thoughtful and decent chap, but I don't see that his reasoning holds up - The Commons has not done what he wanted, so he's off?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    edited April 2019
    Ken telling the house the truth: a"not very political" house
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Incidentally DUP seem to have recanted their absentions and voted AGAINST everything, the effect of which was to ensure that "a Customs Union" failed.

    Cabinet should do the same on Wednesday.
This discussion has been closed.