politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be

Come off it, Mr Eagles! You say "I suspect the Liberal Democrats would have won fewer seats in 2010 had they informed the electorate they were planning on trebling tuition fees."

As you know very well, this was the Conservative plan... and also the Labour plan, since they had pledged themselves to implement the findings of the Browne report in full, and that was what it recommended.

The Lib Dems were opposed to increasing tuition fees, but the leadership felt under pressure from the constraints of being in coalition with the malevolent Tories. And all the press is anti-Lib Dem and happily took up the spin. And the rest is history.

Cheating and lying win for the Conservatives and Labour every time!

No_Offence_Alan said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unfortunately only the MPs have a say, and there is no majority for any other course of action.
There may be a notional majority for "Common Market 2.0" but half of those would only vote for it if it came with a confirmatory vote, and the other half would only support it if it doesn't.

The players in the game will find a way to avoid their most disliked outcome - No Deal.

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Yeh. The one he stood under as a candidate of The Conservative and Unionist Party.

That's the one. The one the public rejected and which therefore became all but incidental to the current governing coalition.

Not a coalition. Lol.

Whatever it is the manifesto ceased to become binding after the majority was not won.

Lol. Good pivot away from a misstep.

I can do the same, see? Good luck getting a Tory majority ever again if we sign up this illusory 2.0

_Anazina_ said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unfortunately only the MPs have a say, and there is no majority for any other course of action.
There may be a notional majority for "Common Market 2.0" but half of those would only vote for it if it came with a confirmatory vote, and the other half would only support it if it doesn't.

The players in the game will find a way to avoid their most disliked outcome - No Deal.

Revoke and extend beyond May are both more disliked than no deal.

Anyone who has ever been to a Tory members meeting understands that.

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:

The MPs seem to want to make this unnecessarily complicated. A permanent Customs Union is the obvious front runner and needs to be put back into the process. There's a question as to whether a referendum should be tied to it, producing a second option. The government needs to decide whether to throw May's deal into the mix for a quasi-MV4; if they do, there's a third option. If they are willing to subject this to a referendum as well, there's a possible fourth option. No deal and revoke probably have to stay in the process to give the people on each of the spectrum something to support before their preferences are transferred. So six in total, even if the government plays ball. Even if Labour's semi-unicorn has to stay in as the official opposition's first choice, that's only seven. Five if HMG doesn't want May's deal in the field.

Surely that should be it?

'A' permanent customs union will destroy a significant proportion of our non EU trade overnight.

Presumably during the two years of our transition we would negotiate the requisite FTAs with those non EU trade partners.

Go Liam.

Why would they in "a" customs union they have access to our market anyway. The only way this works is if we're in "the" customs union

It is asymmetric if it is "a" customs union. Unless we have the accompanying FTAs. Otherwise we have to let goods in tariff free but our goods are subject to tariffs.

Well that's the point, if we signal that we intend to be in "a" customs union permanently with the EU which non-EU country that currently trades with the EU would bother signing a trade deal with us?

That's why this is a disaster idea and MPs are being complete fucking idiots about it.

+1

Customs union is the worst of all possible worlds.

MarqueeMark said:

viewcode said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TOPPING said:

Ishmael_Z said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

The EU is increasingly reconciled to it, and the public and MPs are neither here nor there.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47756377

I'm both here and there about it. Plenty of MPs also. Not enough Cons MPs that said.

...you might as well campaign to have the law of gravity repealed...

Don't say that. The MPs will add it as Option H...

No need. The current MPs already lack gravity.

Which presumably explains why we don't find them very attractive.

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Yeh. The one he stood under as a candidate of The Conservative and Unionist Party.

That's the one. The one the public rejected and which therefore became all but incidental to the current governing coalition.

Not a coalition. Lol.

Whatever it is the manifesto ceased to become binding after the majority was not won.

Lol. Good pivot away from a misstep.

I can do the same, see? Good luck getting a Tory majority ever again if we sign up this illusory 2.0

Never getting a Tory majority again would be the very definition of good luck if the past four years of chaos is anything to go by.

Low interest rates, low inflation, low unemployment. It's working very well for the working middle of the UK ta. You've got to either be very poor or very rich to consider a vote for Corbyn !

https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1112439028815667200

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:

The MPs seem to want to make this unnecessarily complicated. A permanent Customs Union is the obvious front runner and needs to be put back into the process. There's a question as to whether a referendum should be tied to it, producing a second option. The government needs to decide whether to throw May's deal into the mix for a quasi-MV4; if they do, there's a third option. If they are willing to subject this to a referendum as well, there's a possible fourth option. No deal and revoke probably have to stay in the process to give the people on each of the spectrum something to support before their preferences are transferred. So six in total, even if the government plays ball. Even if Labour's semi-unicorn has to stay in as the official opposition's first choice, that's only seven. Five if HMG doesn't want May's deal in the field.

Surely that should be it?

'A' permanent customs union will destroy a significant proportion of our non EU trade overnight.

Presumably during the two years of our transition we would negotiate the requisite FTAs with those non EU trade partners.

Go Liam.

Why would they in "a" customs union they have access to our market anyway. The only way this works is if we're in "the" customs union

It is asymmetric if it is "a" customs union. Unless we have the accompanying FTAs. Otherwise we have to let goods in tariff free but our goods are subject to tariffs.

Well that's the point, if we signal that we intend to be in "a" customs union permanently with the EU which non-EU country that currently trades with the EU would bother signing a trade deal with us?

That's why this is a disaster idea and MPs are being complete fucking idiots about it.

Bravo! Give that man a safe seat!

I

Mortimer said:

_Anazina_ said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unfortunately only the MPs have a say, and there is no majority for any other course of action.
There may be a notional majority for "Common Market 2.0" but half of those would only vote for it if it came with a confirmatory vote, and the other half would only support it if it doesn't.

The players in the game will find a way to avoid their most disliked outcome - No Deal.

Revoke and extend beyond May are both more disliked than no deal.

Anyone who has ever been to a Tory members meeting understands that.

It isn’t about the Tory party anymore.

Pulpstar said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Yeh. The one he stood under as a candidate of The Conservative and Unionist Party.

That's the one. The one the public rejected and which therefore became all but incidental to the current governing coalition.

Not a coalition. Lol.

Whatever it is the manifesto ceased to become binding after the majority was not won.

Lol. Good pivot away from a misstep.

I can do the same, see? Good luck getting a Tory majority ever again if we sign up this illusory 2.0

Never getting a Tory majority again would be the very definition of good luck if the past four years of chaos is anything to go by.

Low interest rates, low inflation, low unemployment. It's working very well for the working middle of the UK ta. You've got to either be very poor or very rich to consider a vote for Corbyn !

Your LibDem phase was very short-lived

Pulpstar said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Yeh. The one he stood under as a candidate of The Conservative and Unionist Party.

That's the one. The one the public rejected and which therefore became all but incidental to the current governing coalition.

Not a coalition. Lol.

Whatever it is the manifesto ceased to become binding after the majority was not won.

Lol. Good pivot away from a misstep.

I can do the same, see? Good luck getting a Tory majority ever again if we sign up this illusory 2.0

Never getting a Tory majority again would be the very definition of good luck if the past four years of chaos is anything to go by.

Low interest rates, low inflation, low unemployment. It's working very well for the working middle of the UK ta. You've got to either be very poor or very rich to consider a vote for Corbyn !

You back in the True Blue fold @Pulpstar ?

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Yeh. The one he stood under as a candidate of The Conservative and Unionist Party.

That's the one. The one the public rejected and which therefore became all but incidental to the current governing coalition.

Not a coalition. Lol.

Whatever it is the manifesto ceased to become binding after the majority was not won.

Lol. Good pivot away from a misstep.

I can do the same, see? Good luck getting a Tory majority ever again if we sign up this illusory 2.0

Never getting a Tory majority again would be the very definition of good luck if the past four years of chaos is anything to go by.

Low interest rates, low inflation, low unemployment. It's working very well for the working middle of the UK ta. You've got to either be very poor or very rich to consider a vote for Corbyn !

Your LibDem phase was very short-lived

You know what ?

I'd trade revocation for Labour not getting into power in the next 50 years

MarqueeMark said:

viewcode said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TOPPING said:

Ishmael_Z said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

The EU is increasingly reconciled to it, and the public and MPs are neither here nor there.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47756377

I'm both here and there about it. Plenty of MPs also. Not enough Cons MPs that said.

...you might as well campaign to have the law of gravity repealed...

Don't say that. The MPs will add it as Option H...

No need. The current MPs already lack gravity.

Well, relatively....

_Anazina_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Yeh. The one he stood under as a candidate of The Conservative and Unionist Party.

That's the one. The one the public rejected and which therefore became all but incidental to the current governing coalition.

Not a coalition. Lol.

Whatever it is the manifesto ceased to become binding after the majority was not won.

Lol. Good pivot away from a misstep.

I can do the same, see? Good luck getting a Tory majority ever again if we sign up this illusory 2.0

Never getting a Tory majority again would be the very definition of good luck if the past four years of chaos is anything to go by.

Low interest rates, low inflation, low unemployment. It's working very well for the working middle of the UK ta. You've got to either be very poor or very rich to consider a vote for Corbyn !

You back in the True Blue fold @Pulpstar ?

My votes are going to be on an election by election basis.

https://www.writetothem.com/who?pc=S818HZ&fyr_extref=https://www.google.com/

I scratch my head at the tariffs on beef and lamb quote. We import a lot more beef than we export and are about equal for lamb. Tariffs referred to would be on our exports - so we eat our own beef and lamb and import less to make up the balance. We don’t have to charge tariffs on our imports so our farmers don’t lose out and our food isn’t more expensive. What is the apocalyptic issue here? What have I missed?

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:

The MPs seem to want to make this unnecessarily complicated. A permanent Customs Union is the obvious front runner and needs to be put back into the process. There's a question as to whether a referendum should be tied to it, producing a second option. The government needs to decide whether to throw May's deal into the mix for a quasi-MV4; if they do, there's a third option. If they are willing to subject this to a referendum as well, there's a possible fourth option. No deal and revoke probably have to stay in the process to give the people on each of the spectrum something to support before their preferences are transferred. So six in total, even if the government plays ball. Even if Labour's semi-unicorn has to stay in as the official opposition's first choice, that's only seven. Five if HMG doesn't want May's deal in the field.

Surely that should be it?

'A' permanent customs union will destroy a significant proportion of our non EU trade overnight.

Presumably during the two years of our transition we would negotiate the requisite FTAs with those non EU trade partners.

Go Liam.

Why would they in "a" customs union they have access to our market anyway. The only way this works is if we're in "the" customs union

It is asymmetric if it is "a" customs union. Unless we have the accompanying FTAs. Otherwise we have to let goods in tariff free but our goods are subject to tariffs.

Well that's the point, if we signal that we intend to be in "a" customs union permanently with the EU which non-EU country that currently trades with the EU would bother signing a trade deal with us?

That's why this is a disaster idea and MPs are being complete fucking idiots about it.

Interestingly, Switzerland in its rollover agreement offers much less the on the No Deal scenario than it does on the transition. Admittedly, the end deal in a customs union scenario might be worse than under EU membership, but it doesn't show any advantages by being outside the customs union as far as third countries are concerned. What is certain however is that the loss of EU trade will be greater than any gain, if at all, in third country trade.

At some point we have to choose from a list of unstisfactory options. Currently the EU accounts for nearly half our exports, plus there is the NI thing. We can't, in the immortal phrase, have our cake and eat it. This is the Brexit undividend. Asymmetric tariffs for those of our non-EU trading partners is one such cost.

Benpointer said:

Interesting take from Pesto...

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1112434746993324032

I shall need to read it now, since I honestly do not know which outcome leads to saved and which to sunk, in this context. Given how many Tories are now no dealers I don't see hopw it can be saved if the CU vote passes.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

_Anazina_ said:

I

Mortimer said:

_Anazina_ said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unfortunately only the MPs have a say, and there is no majority for any other course of action.
There may be a notional majority for "Common Market 2.0" but half of those would only vote for it if it came with a confirmatory vote, and the other half would only support it if it doesn't.

The players in the game will find a way to avoid their most disliked outcome - No Deal.

Revoke and extend beyond May are both more disliked than no deal.

Anyone who has ever been to a Tory members meeting understands that.

It isn’t about the Tory party anymore.

That’s why Brexit is failing. It’s been treated throughout as if it were a private matter for the Conservative party instead of the future of the entire country.

If Brexit ends up devouring the Conservative party it will be the purest moment of political karma in British history. Their arrogance in foisting this disaster on the country in pursuit of their own interests has been breathtaking.

Precisely. Never has so much been lost by so many to benefit so few.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1112448084737474560

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

Sometimes manifestoes cannot be honoured, sometimes u-turns are justified and/or necessary. If they simply cannot get their manifesto committment honoured something else should take it's place. Governments roll with the punches, they don't have to collapse, even on a big issue, if they cannot get their manifesto committments through.

Most of the outcomes now are not what many people will have wanted. Well, half the country wasn't going to get what it wanted anyway (although they might, if we remain), and neither will many others.

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Interesting take from Pesto...

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1112434746993324032

I shall need to read it now, since I honestly do not know which outcome leads to saved and which to sunk, in this context. Given how many Tories are now no dealers I don't see hopw it can be saved if the CU vote passes.

If you can follow the article's contorted logic you are a better man than me.

Btw, somebody needs to tell Peston that the collective noun for horses is a string, not a herd.

Boris!!!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/31/tories-need-get-brexit-learn-believe-britain/

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

So would I but so many mps are taking matters into their own hands

In the end they will be accountable to their constituencies at a GE

If Brexit is softened, or not at all, the ERG ultras are the ones who shot down their own life's work

anothernick said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

_Anazina_ said:

I

Mortimer said:

_Anazina_ said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unfortunately only the MPs have a say, and there is no majority for any other course of action.
There may be a notional majority for "Common Market 2.0" but half of those would only vote for it if it came with a confirmatory vote, and the other half would only support it if it doesn't.

The players in the game will find a way to avoid their most disliked outcome - No Deal.

Revoke and extend beyond May are both more disliked than no deal.

Anyone who has ever been to a Tory members meeting understands that.

It isn’t about the Tory party anymore.

That’s why Brexit is failing. It’s been treated throughout as if it were a private matter for the Conservative party instead of the future of the entire country.

If Brexit ends up devouring the Conservative party it will be the purest moment of political karma in British history. Their arrogance in foisting this disaster on the country in pursuit of their own interests has been breathtaking.

Precisely. Never has so much been lost by so many to benefit so few.

A silly way of looking at it, a comforting deception even. Whatever the motivation behind it the thing being 'foisted' was requested by 17 million people, which is well more than some Tory only issue.

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

Which bit, fox hunting repeal or dementia tax?

Benpointer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

Which bit, fox hunting repeal or dementia tax?

The latter had more promise as an idea.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

_Anazina_ said:

I

Mortimer said:

_Anazina_ said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unfortunately only the MPs have a say, and there is no majority for any other course of action.
There may be a notional majority for "Common Market 2.0" but half of those would only vote for it if it came with a confirmatory vote, and the other half would only support it if it doesn't.

The players in the game will find a way to avoid their most disliked outcome - No Deal.

Revoke and extend beyond May are both more disliked than no deal.

Anyone who has ever been to a Tory members meeting understands that.

It isn’t about the Tory party anymore.

It is far more that no deal happens without either TM deal or at the very least the WDA, as legislation to stop it would have to go through the HOC and HOL and receive royal assent by 12th April

This was discussed this morning and it is apparent that just about everyone agrees that is impossible

Other than no deal or WDA, the UK has to consent to taking part in the EU elections in May for anything else and the path to that is very much uncertain

I fear no deal is a very high risk. It cannot be wished away, it has to be legislated away

Or revoked?

Yes, I know how disgustingly unpalatable that is considered, but it does at least lie within our own powers.

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

That's the manifesto that said:

"As we leave the European Union, we want to negotiate a new deep and special partnership with the EU, which will allow free trade between the UK and the EU’s member states. As part of the agreement we strike, we want to make sure that there are as few barriers to trade and investment as possible"

I can see why you're so angry at the no-deal Tories who have voted against Theresa May's deal. How dare they break their manifesto commitments!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Corbyn didn't get a majority either...

Comrade!

Everyone but the worst sort of capitalist running dog knows that Corbyn was the true victor.


Vote totals are so last year - we shall abolish these traits of the capitalist system at the earliest opportunity!!!

Remember comrade, losing is winning and war is peace!!!

AmpfieldAndy said:

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

It didn't win a majority.

Why not the DUP manifesto?

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1112410481443115008?s=21

Did he read the 2017 manifesto?

The manifesto that saw the Tory party lose their majority?

Yeh. The one he stood under as a candidate of The Conservative and Unionist Party.

That's the one. The one the public rejected and which therefore became all but incidental to the current governing coalition.

Not a coalition. Lol.

Whatever it is the manifesto ceased to become binding after the majority was not won.

Lol. Good pivot away from a misstep.

I can do the same, see? Good luck getting a Tory majority ever again if we sign up this illusory 2.0

Never getting a Tory majority again would be the very definition of good luck if the past four years of chaos is anything to go by.

Low interest rates, low inflation, low unemployment. It's working very well for the working middle of the UK ta. You've got to either be very poor or very rich to consider a vote for Corbyn !

Your LibDem phase was very short-lived

You know what ?

I'd trade revocation for Labour not getting into power in the next 50 years

I suspect that revocation is the option most likely to get a Tory government in the near future. I can just see the party uniting to pursue Brexit and getting enough support on its back to form an administration. Actually leaving means the exact nature of the relationship with Europe becomes the number one item on the agenda. They'll never agree on that.

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

Which bit, fox hunting repeal or dementia tax?

The latter had more promise as an idea.

I agree actually - it was probably the best thing in the Tory manifesto; completely lost by piss-poor presentation.

AmpfieldAndy said:

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

Sometimes manifestoes cannot be honoured, sometimes u-turns are justified and/or necessary. If they simply cannot get their manifesto committment honoured something else should take it's place. Governments roll with the punches, they don't have to collapse, even on a big issue, if they cannot get their manifesto committments through.

Most of the outcomes now are not what many people will have wanted. Well, half the country wasn't going to get what it wanted anyway (although they might, if we remain), and neither will many others.

I seem to recall the greatest peacetime PM we’ve ever had once saying,in a different context “U turn if you want to, the lady is not for turning”. .

Yes, and that's a pretty stupid quote, no matter how great a PM they were. You cannot always get what you promised - sometimes you don't even want to as what you promised may, completely innocently, not be as good an idea as you thought or things may have changed - and you don't resign every time you cannot get a manifesto committment through, I bet she had u-turns in her 11 years in office.

Something this big? Sure, maybe. But Thatcher's quip about not turning is just that, a quip and nothing more. People who refuse to even contemplate changing position are recklessly inflexible, it's why Corbyn's touted 'consistency' of views over decades is so worrying.

AmpfieldAndy said:

Because the gains were made by Labour

You want the Tory manifesto because they lost seats to Labour...

Do you understand how elections work?

Benpointer said:

Which government ministers will be resigning if May is forced to adopt a Customs Union?

Any who signed the no deal letter for a start. Isn't that meant to be Hunt and Javid?

Nick Boles is now trying to threaten the whips to give him a clear run.

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1112447358976094210

AmpfieldAndy said:

Scott_P said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

It didn't win a majority.

Why not the DUP manifesto?

Because the gains were made by Labour who also campaigned on a Leave platform and its the Tories who are in power albeit courtesy of the DUP who are more supportive of the Tory manifesto on Brexit than many Tories.

How does that work? Because Labour gained seats then that means the Tory manifesto should be honoured? They’re a minority government and minority governments don’t get to do everything in their manifesto.

_Anazina_ said:

Pulpstar said:

_Anazina_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

_Anazina_ said:

The big question is whether Utd will roll over on derby day to stop Liverpool winning the title. I think they might. A title for Liverpool is a living nightmare for Utd supporters. They can live with City winning it.

Yes, it's not like Man Utd need the points, is it?

Plus United fans do not want the treble equalled/superseded.

Still think they’d trade that to avoid a Scouser title.

Wouldn't we all

People say that, and I know what you mean (we’d never hear the end of it!). But City buying the league sticks in the craw and the pseudo-Scousers on here, who have no discernible connection with Merseyside, are clearly decent folk - Eagles, KLE4

I never quite understand why TSE, a proud Yorkshireman would want anything to do with a team from LANCASHIRE!!!!!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Which government ministers will be resigning if May is forced to adopt a Customs Union?

Ben - I have given up caring

Hold fast there Big_G - it can't go on for too much longer, it really can't*.

(*He says, more in hope than expectation.)

TheValiant said:

_Anazina_ said:

Pulpstar said:

_Anazina_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

_Anazina_ said:

The big question is whether Utd will roll over on derby day to stop Liverpool winning the title. I think they might. A title for Liverpool is a living nightmare for Utd supporters. They can live with City winning it.

Yes, it's not like Man Utd need the points, is it?

Plus United fans do not want the treble equalled/superseded.

Still think they’d trade that to avoid a Scouser title.

Wouldn't we all

People say that, and I know what you mean (we’d never hear the end of it!). But City buying the league sticks in the craw and the pseudo-Scousers on here, who have no discernible connection with Merseyside, are clearly decent folk - Eagles, KLE4

I never quite understand why TSE, a proud Yorkshireman would want anything to do with a team from LANCASHIRE!!!!!

Not much to choose from in Yorkshire?

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Mortimer said:

So, Gauke is pushing the (IMHO minority) view that May will be forced to accept a customs union if somehow it goes support this week (I’m doubtful myself).

I suspect 11 of these would resign if that happened: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Maybe but Gauke may not be wrong, sadly. There is one report in today’s papers that if May’s deal doesn’t pass, she’ll go for a soft Brexit which will satisfy absolutely no one

It will satisfy many and possibly the majority in the HOC

I do not agree with it but I accept the reality

I’d rather see the manifesto on which the Tories were elected honoured.

Sometimes manifestoes cannot be honoured, sometimes u-turns are justified and/or necessary. If they simply cannot get their manifesto committment honoured something else should take it's place. Governments roll with the punches, they don't have to collapse, even on a big issue, if they cannot get their manifesto committments through.

Most of the outcomes now are not what many people will have wanted. Well, half the country wasn't going to get what it wanted anyway (although they might, if we remain), and neither will many others.

I seem to recall the greatest peacetime PM we’ve ever had once saying,in a different context “U turn if you want to, the lady is not for turning”. .

Yes, and that's a pretty stupid quote, no matter how great a PM they were. You cannot always get what you promised - sometimes you don't even want to as what you promised may, completely innocently, not be as good an idea as you thought or things may have changed - and you don't resign every time you cannot get a manifesto committment through, I bet she had u-turns in her 11 years in office.

Something this big? Sure, maybe. But Thatcher's quip about not turning is just that, a quip and nothing more. People who refuse to even contemplate changing position are recklessly inflexible, it's why Corbyn's touted 'consistency' of views over decades is so worrying.

Rawnesley's characteristically sharp piece in the Observer today cited exactly that feature as one of the reasons why May is likely to go down as one of the worst PM's in the last hundred years.

Interestingly he gave as the four worst to date Ramsay McDonald, Chamberlain, Eden and Cameron. Not sure of I agree with that last one, and personally I'd have Baldwin in my worst four, but am sure PBers will have plenty of opinions on the matter!

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

anothernick said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

_Anazina_ said:

I

Mortimer said:

_Anazina_ said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

_Anazina_ said:

geoffw said:

Fascinating article on how the EU and Ireland will manage the border if UK leaves without a deal.

. . . It is rising concern that a ‘no deal’ might sooner or later become unavoidable that leads Europe’s two big political beasts to Mr Varadkar’s door to seek clarity on how the Irish border would be managed.

Because a ‘no deal’ presents the EU with a political trilemma - balancing the need to show solidarity with Ireland, while supporting the Good Friday Agreement and ‘no hard border’, and protecting the integrity of the EU single market. . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/30/leo-varadkar-hold-talks-angela-merkel-emmanuel-macron-reality/

No deal ain’t happening.

If you think No Deal is the outcome when a majority of MPs, the public, and the EU oppose it, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unfortunately only the MPs have a say, and there is no majority for any other course of action.
There may be a notional majority for "Common Market 2.0" but half of those would only vote for it if it came with a confirmatory vote, and the other half would only support it if it doesn't.

The players in the game will find a way to avoid their most disliked outcome - No Deal.

Revoke and extend beyond May are both more disliked than no deal.

Anyone who has ever been to a Tory members meeting understands that.

It isn’t about the Tory party anymore.

That’s why Brexit is failing. It’s been treated throughout as if it were a private matter for the Conservative party instead of the future of the entire country.

If Brexit ends up devouring the Conservative party it will be the purest moment of political karma in British history. Their arrogance in foisting this disaster on the country in pursuit of their own interests has been breathtaking.

Precisely. Never has so much been lost by so many to benefit so few.

A silly way of looking at it, a comforting deception even. Whatever the motivation behind it the thing being 'foisted' was requested by 17 million people, which is well more than some Tory only issue.

Brexit has diminished the UK economically, politically and socially. You may think that is what people voted for but I beg to differ.

There was no shortage of people warning of terrors to come if people voted to leave the EU.