Does rather beg the question why, given their position has not changed, it came as such a shock that they confirmed that position.
I think the fundamental mistake the ERG made was to assume that the DUP preferred No Deal to Remain.
The DUP would probably choose something like EFTA as their first choice, Remain as their second, and then - way, way, way down the list - the Backstop or No Deal.
The issue of EU trade goes away of we are in the Single Market. And without the issues of 3rd party tariff free access. That is why EFTA countries have never joined a customs union with the EU. It is truly the dumbest idea known to man.
It is also why the EFTA route is by far the most sensible. As some of us have been saying for the last 4 or more years.
I don't understand this obsession with a customs union either. On its own it doesn't solve NI. Surely an eventual free trade agreement does everything the custom union does but without the restrictions and loss of sovereignty?
What am I missing?
The key word is “eventual”. It will take 5-10 years to agree
Except Labour want a 'permanent customs union' - which sounds like forever rather than until we agree a trade deal?
How many members does the Conservative Party have now? I have not seen any recent figures.
124,000 at the end of 2017. Now, I would guess something over 150,000.
Why do you think the figure is rising? I thought all Conservatives were bewildered and dismayed.
Kippers.
The creation of a centralised and digitised membership list may also be a factor - until a couple of years ago there were no truly accurate figures as the data was held and maintained by local constituency parties.
UKIP probably never had more than 40,000 members - so that probably isn't the entire story.
I think it's important to understand Labour's strategy:
They don't really care about a Customs Union (or think it desirable or otherwise), they care about:
1. The Conservative Party tearing itself apart 2. Offering something that is marginally closer to the EU than the Conservative Party is proposing 3. Having something that satisfies their voters on FoM
A Customs Union satisfies 2 and 3, and allows the Labour Party to oppose the current deal.
"Oh well," they will say when the UK economy encounters its inevitable next bump (which may not even be Brexit related), "if only they'd gone with out Customs Union plan, then those half a million people would never have lost their jobs."
It's breathtakingly cynical.
But it plays on humans' natural tendency to consider themselves responsible for their successes, and to blame others for their failings. A post-Brexit recession - not the responsibility of people who spent ahead of their incomes... no, a consequence of the Conservative Party not backing a customs union.
I feel for the people of the UK. While a No Deal Brexit will not lead to shortages of food or medicine, it will have the effect of the UK imposing substantial tariffs on its exports, of discouraging companies from having holding companies in the UK, and there will be meaningful levels of disruption. Ten years into an economic expansion, with the rest of the world slowing already, it will almost certainly lead to a recession.
Not a '08/'09 one sure; probably more of a 1990-91 one. Still, I can't help feel the voters will not be overjoyed.
Does rather beg the question why, given their position has not changed, it came as such a shock that they confirmed that position.
I think the fundamental mistake the ERG made was to assume that the DUP preferred No Deal to Remain.
The DUP would probably choose something like EFTA as their first choice, Remain as their second, and then - way, way, way down the list - the Backstop or No Deal.
Comments
The DUP would probably choose something like EFTA as their first choice, Remain as their second, and then - way, way, way down the list - the Backstop or No Deal.
UKIP probably never had more than 40,000 members - so that probably isn't the entire story.
They don't really care about a Customs Union (or think it desirable or otherwise), they care about:
1. The Conservative Party tearing itself apart
2. Offering something that is marginally closer to the EU than the Conservative Party is proposing
3. Having something that satisfies their voters on FoM
A Customs Union satisfies 2 and 3, and allows the Labour Party to oppose the current deal.
"Oh well," they will say when the UK economy encounters its inevitable next bump (which may not even be Brexit related), "if only they'd gone with out Customs Union plan, then those half a million people would never have lost their jobs."
It's breathtakingly cynical.
But it plays on humans' natural tendency to consider themselves responsible for their successes, and to blame others for their failings. A post-Brexit recession - not the responsibility of people who spent ahead of their incomes... no, a consequence of the Conservative Party not backing a customs union.
I feel for the people of the UK. While a No Deal Brexit will not lead to shortages of food or medicine, it will have the effect of the UK imposing substantial tariffs on its exports, of discouraging companies from having holding companies in the UK, and there will be meaningful levels of disruption. Ten years into an economic expansion, with the rest of the world slowing already, it will almost certainly lead to a recession.
Not a '08/'09 one sure; probably more of a 1990-91 one. Still, I can't help feel the voters will not be overjoyed.