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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith

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  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    You may take comfort from what you perceive to be a more active interest in the EU as a cause, others will see recent activity as very much in line with current trends in identity politics, the grievance culture, etc.. Once we've left, I highly doubt going back in will be more than a niche interest. I don't actually agree with your comments about Scottish nationalists (I live in Scotland), but to try and claim that wanting to be part of the political machinery of the EU is an issue of the same order seems deluded to me.
    If we have a hard Brexit and keep being a democracy, effectively remain swaps places with UKIP.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I think you're reading too much into that poll. Answering that you would support revocation doesn't mean you're a Remainer who supports doing it without a referendum. It doesn't even mean you're a Remainer. There have been several articles from Brexiteers saying we should revoke.
    Revoke now has one feature that no other option does. It stops the clock. It gets the ball back in our court and undoes the error of invoking Article 50 without a plan. It will appeal to anyone who doesn't positively want no deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    As metaphors for Brexit go, a steam train, traveling backwards, is pretty on the nose...

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1112300203023970304

    Seems to have been delayed by Leaves on the line.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    How soon do you think there will be a stable status quo for the United Kingdom as a political entity outside the EU?
    Political? Five to ten years. Economically? As far as most people are concerned, it should be more or less overnight, subject to the WA being signed in an orderly fashion, followed by an FTA within the transition period.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Sean_F said:

    Are they people who want No Deal, or who can accept No Deal?

    Both sides have tacked to the hard extremes - revoke and No Deal - and Parliament is responding to this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Sean_F said:

    In practice, I think that people who are polled who favour Revoke would correspond almost 100% with those who favour a second Referendum.
    Absolutely. 0.95+ correlation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Barnesian said:

    Yes - but similar social and economic values to UKIP so I have taken the basic UKIP vote as an indicator of the appeal of the new social conservatives in each constituency.
    Straight swing doesn't really work with big swings in vote, particularly for smaller parties, as we saw in 2015 with the LibDems losing 15% from 23% to 8%; quite obviously this wasn't going to be the same swing in every seat. Conversely if the LibDems ever put on 15% they're not suddenly going to gain 15% of the vote in every seat, but bounce back more strongly in their previously better areas.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I need to bugger off, but before I go - when I saw that 170 Tory MPs are advocating No Deal I just thought 'WTF???'. The Kipperite lunatics truly have taken over the Tory parliamentary party.

    BLUKIP now own the Tories.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344

    They've boarded a train with the EU flag on it?

    Sell outs.
    Pretty sure it'll be the EU flag with one star missing which is what passes for biting agitprop in Leaverdom.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour is amazingly resilient in terms of seat numbers at low vote share. Far more than the Tories.
    The Tories should have supported PR over the years like Hannan does. Their vote is too evenly spread to survive a meltdown/major realignment. Another ghastly thought is that under FPTP the likes of Fysh, Francois, Bone, Chope, Bridgen, Paterson and Wiggin will almost certainly survive the apocalypse.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    IanB2 said:

    Straight swing doesn't really work with big swings in vote, particularly for smaller parties, as we saw in 2015 with the LibDems losing 15% from 23% to 8%; quite obviously this wasn't going to be the same swing in every seat. Conversely if the LibDems ever put on 15% they're not suddenly going to gain 15% of the vote in every seat, but bounce back more strongly in their previously better areas.
    The biggest ever fail of democratic representation that dare not speak its name doesn't get a mention yet again! #prayforthe13%
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Pretty sure it'll be the EU flag with one star missing which is what passes for biting agitprop in Leaverdom.
    Any flag representing the anti-Christ should be anathema for True Leavers.

    Baker is a secret fan.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Seems to have been delayed by Leaves on the line.
    As long as the idiots aren't signalling that they have a platform for remaining being the permanent way.....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I've just had a thought. This would have been booked months ago as a publicity stunt following our withdrawl from the EU. So it doesn't look like leading Brexiters were planning to be conciliatory towards the large number of people who disagreed with them.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1112300203023970304
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131

    Pretty sure it'll be the EU flag with one star missing which is what passes for biting agitprop in Leaverdom.
    The flag has had twelve stars since the days when it only had six members, the number having been chosen to represent the French idea of numerical perfection. Cutting a star out doesn't really make sense.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Chris said:

    Me too. Until quite recently I thought it was fair to honour the referendum result, stupid as it was.
    As someone who campaigned and voted for Remain I am not in favour of revoke. We have to see this through to its conclusion, even if it is no deal. In the long term, revoke would polarise politics even more, and embolden the far right. not a good move, even if it seems to solve short term problems.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    It would be easier if the Tories just told us who wasn't standing. JRM is the only one I have heard so far who says he definitely isn't.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    nielh said:

    As someone who campaigned and voted for Remain I am not in favour of revoke. We have to see this through to its conclusion, even if it is no deal. In the long term, revoke would polarise politics even more, and embolden the far right. not a good move, even if it seems to solve short term problems.
    But the short term problem is a problem. None of the other solutions are any better.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    IanB2 said:

    The flag has had twelve stars since the days when it only had six members, the number having been chosen to represent the French idea of numerical perfection. Cutting a star out doesn't really make sense.
    Unless you don't subscribe to French notions of perfection.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    edited March 2019

    I've just had a thought. This would have been booked months ago as a publicity stunt following our withdrawl from the EU. So it doesn't look like leading Brexiters were planning to be conciliatory towards the large number of people who disagreed with them.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1112300203023970304

    A lot of them have been campaigning their whole lives for exit; even I wouldn't deny their right to a moment of celebration. Even though it will surely prove phyrric.

    Minting a coin on something so divisive and potentially damaging is however a mistake.

    Perhaps if they had won the train would have been going forwards?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    nielh said:

    As someone who campaigned and voted for Remain I am not in favour of revoke. We have to see this through to its conclusion, even if it is no deal. In the long term, revoke would polarise politics even more, and embolden the far right. not a good move, even if it seems to solve short term problems.
    I do not want the country's future to be dictated by threats from the far right.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    It looks like we're heading back to the 2005-15 period where support for the big two is in the mid-60s % range, but this time, the other third are split between multiple parties.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    IanB2 said:

    The flag has had twelve stars since the days when it only had six members, the number having been chosen to represent the French idea of numerical perfection. Cutting a star out doesn't really make sense.
    Annoys the French though....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    DougSeal said:

    It will be far more than a niche interest but a pressing, urgent, cause. If the EU were just “political machinery” you may have been right but many feel that not being in the EU disconnects us in a vital way from a European polity of which we are a part. We will feel politically disconnected in the same way an Irish Nationalist from Belfast feels disconnected from his compatriots in the south. The fact that you underestimate that strength of feeling is worrying. This is a chasm in British society that we will not recover from just by leaving, in fact the economic harm will exacerbate it, and spouting some psychobabble about “healing”, which is the new “get over it” it seems, won’t change that.

    I'm doubtful of the scale of it but its existence is undeniable. Ardent pro EU sentiment, like its anti opposite, is primarily a matter of feelings and identity. Neither come from a detached and dessicated analysis of material pros and cons. It is rare for this to be admitted because people like to present themselves as extremely rational, their head governing their heart, and it helps to do this if they manage to believe it themselves.

    Gosh I'm coming over as very wise and worldly with that, I must say.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    kinabalu said:

    I'm doubtful of the scale of it but its existence is undeniable. Ardent pro EU sentiment, like its anti opposite, is primarily a matter of feelings and identity. Neither come from a detached and dessicated analysis of material pros and cons. It is rare for this to be admitted because people like to present themselves as extremely rational, their head governing their heart, and it helps to do this if they manage to believe it themselves.

    Gosh I'm coming over as very wise and worldly with that, I must say.
    I'd say that it's much as a Conservative must have felt in 1946. A feeling that the natural order of things has been overturned.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,326
    Endillion said:

    Unless you don't subscribe to French notions of perfection.
    The notion of 12 symbolising perfection considerably predates the French state. 12 olympians, labours, apostles, etc.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    kinabalu said:

    I'm doubtful of the scale of it but its existence is undeniable. Ardent pro EU sentiment, like its anti opposite, is primarily a matter of feelings and identity. Neither come from a detached and dessicated analysis of material pros and cons. It is rare for this to be admitted because people like to present themselves as extremely rational, their head governing their heart, and it helps to do this if they manage to believe it themselves.

    Gosh I'm coming over as very wise and worldly with that, I must say.
    Yes you are. You have become the PB sage.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    But the short term problem is a problem. None of the other solutions are any better.
    The deal and a long extension are still plausible options and better than no deal, in my view.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    As long as the idiots aren't signalling that they have a platform for remaining being the permanent way.....
    ... or claiming that a further referendum would be the wrong sort of democracy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Dura_Ace said:

    The notion of 12 symbolising perfection considerably predates the French state. 12 olympians, labours, apostles, etc.
    That must be where the word doozy comes from.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    nielh said:

    As someone who campaigned and voted for Remain I am not in favour of revoke. We have to see this through to its conclusion, even if it is no deal. In the long term, revoke would polarise politics even more, and embolden the far right. not a good move, even if it seems to solve short term problems.
    I am coming round to:

    1. Revoke. Gets us off the crazy conveyor belt those agitating for A50 , before we were ready, put us on. Certainty for business. Chance to return to what should be the real political priorities.
    2. Quickly finalise what is the consensus Brexit. Probably somewhere close to Clarke.
    3. Referendum between consensus Brexit or staying as we are.
    4. In the event Brexit wins, the new A50 period replaces what would have been the transition period under May's WA. After two years we move to the new terms.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Sean_F said:

    I'd say that it's much as a Conservative must have felt in 1946. A feeling that the natural order of things has been overturned.
    If only the Conservatives had stuck to being conservative, then.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I do not want the country's future to be dictated by threats from the far right.
    But what incentive have the far right got to work within democracy, if the result isn't honoured? There is a lot of support for no deal. It seems to me that the threat from the far right is greater if we revoke.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    nielh said:

    The deal and a long extension are still plausible options and better than no deal, in my view.
    How many times does the deal need to get pummelled or do you believe in fairies as well.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,095

    You've got the reason it is happening spot on. But that doesn't alter the fact that it is now the most popular option. I have a feeling it is growing in support. It's not an obvious that a sudden outbreak of moderation on the leave side would change the situation.
    Thanks . The no deal fantasists have only themselves to blame. Not content with us leaving they now want to rub Remainer noses in it by a complete rupture with the EU .



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ... or claiming that a further referendum would be the wrong sort of democracy.
    You've missed the point here.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Whilst 70000 Britannia may have seemed like an appropriate locomotive for , The Brexit Express, I think 70013 Oliver Cromwell would be better for the sequel.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    malcolmg said:

    How many times does the deal need to get pummelled or do you believe in fairies as well.
    the fact that it might not pass doesn't make it a bad option.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    edited March 2019
    isam said:

    The biggest ever fail of democratic representation that dare not speak its name doesn't get a mention yet again! #prayforthe13%
    Even as anoraks we cling to UNS because of its simplicity and the absence of any better model (surely there is a PHD project here for someone?). But UNS was designed for the two-party era where there was an unpopular government and a popular opposition, and it was noticed that the government lost proportionally more support in its weak areas than in its strong areas.

    The only two rationales for this phenomenon that I have ever seen are the social interaction one - that government supporters n its strong areas are surrounded by friendly voices whereas in its weak areas the pub and corner shop are full of people moaning aboout the government, hence encouraging its supporters to switch, and the vested interest one - that the government in power has favoured through its policies the interests of its stronger areas (urban v rural, north v south, etc) and therefore holds onto more support in these than in the unfavoured areas.

    It is hard to see how this model has that much relevance to the current state of politics? And certainly nothing to do with the change in support for any third party.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    Yes you are. You have become the PB sage.

    😊

    Well I'll take that obviously.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    nielh said:

    the fact that it might not pass doesn't make it a bad option.
    The more that MPs spend time going through the options, the more May's Shit Deal risies to the surface as the least worst....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    The OP had already tried to cover this by switching ring and hat.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313
    kinabalu said:

    😊

    Well I'll take that obviously.
    You are the PB sage. You know your onions. We are stuffed... :)
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    IanB2 said:

    I am coming round to:

    1. Revoke. Gets us off the crazy conveyor belt those agitating for A50 , before we were ready, put us on. Certainty for business. Chance to return to what should be the real political priorities.
    2. Quickly finalise what is the consensus Brexit. Probably somewhere close to Clarke.
    3. Referendum between consensus Brexit or staying as we are.
    4. In the event Brexit wins, the new A50 period replaces what would have been the transition period under May's WA. After two years we move to the new terms.
    Sounds good, but we live in a democracy and it isn't politically possible.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    nielh said:

    the fact that it might not pass doesn't make it a bad option.
    everyone knows it is not just bad but the absolutely crappiest option.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    kinabalu said:

    😊

    Well I'll take that obviously.
    You will be being stuffed into a turkey with some onion soon as.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Yes.
    In much of the SW Labour has replaced the LDs as main anti-Tory option on basis of 2017 results.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    edited March 2019

    The more that MPs spend time going through the options, the more May's Shit Deal risies to the surface as the least worst....
    I don't think so, only for saving Tory skins not the country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    justin124 said:

    In much of the SW Labour has replaced the LDs as main anti-Tory option on basis of 2017 results.
    Doubt that will last.
  • NEW THREAD

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Pulpstar said:

    You've missed the point here.
    And gone totally off track.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    In much of the SW Labour has replaced the LDs as main anti-Tory option on basis of 2017 results.
    Amazing to think they came 6th behind Mebyon Kernow in the euros before last in Cornwall
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    The more that MPs spend time going through the options, the more May's Shit Deal risies to the surface as the least worst....
    The only way May’s deal is going to pass is if the EU agree to move the backstop from the WA to the political declaration. I saw one newspaper report saying that was an idea favoured by Merkel but I doubt it has substance. Frankly WA plus the political declaration as it stands is virtually the same as the Norway deal. That doesn’t have a lot going for it in my view. I think it’s a binary choice between no deal or no Brexit myself.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    That must an April Fool’s day story. No matter who wins he won’t make the Cabinet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Opinion, fieldwork Thursday-Friday, finds the two main parties neck and neck on 35% and barely any change in Party support at all, barring a slight uptick for the LibDems. Completely different picture from Deltapoll.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    I'd say that it's much as a Conservative must have felt in 1946. A feeling that the natural order of things has been overturned.

    There is that but I'm more thinking of the 'ordinary people' who feel very passionately pro and anti EU.

    Unless Brexit is coupled with a radical move left or right in our domestic politics, and assuming that we do manage to leave in an orderly fashion, the odds are that its practical impact on the life of such people will not be anywhere near large enough to adequately explain the passion.

    Nevertheless it will still be felt and it will be real. Post Brexit the ardent Brexiteer / Remainer will go to Aldi / Waitrose as normal, they will buy their scratch cards / humous dip just as before, but they will feel liberated / diminished as they do so.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    nielh said:

    But what incentive have the far right got to work within democracy, if the result isn't honoured? There is a lot of support for no deal. It seems to me that the threat from the far right is greater if we revoke.
    If they want to work outside democracy, that is something for the police to sort out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    malcolmg said:

    You will be being stuffed into a turkey with some onion soon as.

    That did occur to me. Still, worse fates.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    viewcode said:

    You are the PB sage. You know your onions. We are stuffed... :)

    😊

    Going to disappear up a Turkey's arse once I've disappeared up my own.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The DUP has been honest and principled from the start. Tories should not blame the DUP for their own government's failures. Of course, the problem with the DUP is that there is no nuance, no flexibility and no compromise. How does that differ from our own dear Prime Minister with her red lines?
    That’s kind of the definition of a red line!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    As we wait for today's drama I hope there is still time for April Fools' stories in the papers. However, there is no escape from Brexit in this one.

    According to the Express the UK will be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest if we leave with no deal. This is according to the Paris based L’Institute de Eurovision Song (or LIES for short).

    The requirement to be an EU member might of course be a shock to this year's hosts and last year's winners - Israel!

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1107899/Eurovision-song-contest-uk-leaving-brexit-latest-news-eurovision

This discussion has been closed.