And it is ridiculous “Parliament” criticising May for not following an “alternative” course when they won’t even give her an alternative course to reject to follow.
Nail. Head.
May refused to give them an alternative until she was forced to do so just a few days ago.
She’s tried to dictate the whole process from the beginning. If it wasn’t for Gina Miller, Parliament would not have been asked at all.
And when she did offer alternatives they rejected them all. Rendering your point moot.
Gina Miller really has a lot to answer for. But Parliament has far more to answer for.
Have a good morning.
Agreed. May's main priority has always been to construct a Brexit that best suits the Conservative Party. The interests of the 58% of us that didn't vote Conservative in 2017 don't figure at all.
Corbyn is content with that because he believes No Deal is a disaster and wants the Conservatives to fall into that trap and pay the electoral price.
Since the Tories fell into further chaos and Labour came out (almost) for a people's vote, he certainly seems to be on a roll. Will be interesting to see the next YouGov and Survation VI.
Sometimes I wonder if there are any rules for elections anymore. Bolsanaro from Brazil represented a party with tiny support yet won, the likely winner in Slovakia the same I believe (though not remotely similar in nature of the candidate) and from the Ukranian election
[comedian front runner] has torn up the rule book for election campaigning, the BBC's Jonah Fisher reports from Kiev. He has done no rallies and few interviews, and appears to have no strong political views apart from a wish to be new and different.
Is being new and different, or stating you will be new and different, really enough to win elections now? Apparently. I hope it works out for them. It really feels like the sort of thing which can blow up in your face later as people don't really know what you stand for.
Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%
Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.
Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%
Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.
Ok, how do they win round 170 colleagues for a compromiss which results in a long extension?
But I do get the feeling the conservative grassroots still like Boris. Bumbling incompetence and cynical venality cancelled out by his supposed quixotic patriotism.
And it is ridiculous “Parliament” criticising May for not following an “alternative” course when they won’t even give her an alternative course to reject to follow.
Nail. Head.
May refused to give them an alternative until she was forced to do so just a few days ago.
She’s tried to dictate the whole process from the beginning. If it wasn’t for Gina Miller, Parliament would not have been asked at all.
And when she did offer alternatives they rejected them all. Rendering your point moot.
Gina Miller really has a lot to answer for. But Parliament has far more to answer for.
Have a good morning.
Agreed. May's main priority has always been to construct a Brexit that best suits the Conservative Party. The interests of the 58% of us that didn't vote Conservative in 2017 don't figure at all.
Corbyn is content with that because he believes No Deal is a disaster and wants the Conservatives to fall into that trap and pay the electoral price.
Point of order: 70.8% of the electorate didn't vote Conservative in the 2017 GE.
Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.
Ok, how do they win round 170 colleagues for a compromiss which results in a long extension?
A strong whip, opposition support, and public pressure.
Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
Thornberry knows it. May knows it. That's why they voted Remain. The inescapable fact is that Brexit is a degradation of the status quo. Remainers can rationalise it by saying, we voted for the better option, we lost, we respect the result, and so we commit to limiting the damage. Leavers can't rationally say, we voted to make things worse, but never mind. Hence the delusions. Everyone is at fault for the mess, except those that voted for it.
Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.
Ok, how do they win round 170 colleagues for a compromiss which results in a long extension?
A strong whip, opposition support, and public pressure.
If they had the ability for the first they'd have acted differently before now, maybe, and there's plenty of public support for no deal so that won't work.
Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.
Ok, how do they win round 170 colleagues for a compromiss which results in a long extension?
Don’t conflate the two. If a permanent CU in the PD is what it takes, we can still leave on 12th April.
We will then hurtle into a General Election as the irreconcilables won’t support May in a VONC.
What fun.
Alternatively, May refuses to pursue a CU, we crash out, or Parliament gets its act together and VONCs her, with Corbyn as new PM.
‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
Watson saying Labour is prepared to support a variety of soft Brexit proposals underpinned by a people's vote.
Ugh. I wish they'd just go for a referendum on the WA, or pick another option without the need for a referendum. There's no point in a referendum except to remain, so there's no need to pick alternative options to go up against remain.
And it is ridiculous “Parliament” criticising May for not following an “alternative” course when they won’t even give her an alternative course to reject to follow.
#Is she incapable of thinking up a plan B, given she had 3 years?
Yes. Because while she's a problem, the bigger problem is the party. 170 no dealers vs 130 presumed something else. That's the reason she's not dared have a plan b and put us in risk of accidental no deal rather than preparing for something
She should have shown some leadership, got rid of some of the dissenters in her cabinet, and then dared anyone to go against her. She back pedalled , crawled , bribed and sucked up hoping to placate everyone and she has got exactly what you would expect, derision from all sides.
Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%
HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.
Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
It shows what it thinks would have happened had we taken a different course. Balls and uncles come to mind.
PS My stories may be sh*te but they are my own work.
You have misunderstood the CER graph. The comparison is with the actual performance of a basket of other countries used to model our own economy.
Nobody is seriously claiming Brexit has aided our economy, and there’s decent enough evidence of resultant economic slowdown, yet for some reason PB’s finest wish to attack this graph?
It must truly be embarrassing to have voted for Brexit.
Not at all you halfwitted cretinous blowhard, get your head out of your own butt.
Morning Malc.
Morning GIN, the frothers are on overdrive this weather. Nutters are all coming out of the woodwork.
Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%
And it is ridiculous “Parliament” criticising May for not following an “alternative” course when they won’t even give her an alternative course to reject to follow.
Nail. Head.
May refused to give them an alternative until she was forced to do so just a few days ago.
She’s tried to dictate the whole process from the beginning. If it wasn’t for Gina Miller, Parliament would not have been asked at all.
And when she did offer alternatives they rejected them all. Rendering your point moot.
Gina Miller really has a lot to answer for. But Parliament has far more to answer for.
Have a good morning.
Agreed. May's main priority has always been to construct a Brexit that best suits the Conservative Party. The interests of the 58% of us that didn't vote Conservative in 2017 don't figure at all.
Corbyn is content with that because he believes No Deal is a disaster and wants the Conservatives to fall into that trap and pay the electoral price.
Point of order: 70.8% of the electorate didn't vote Conservative in the 2017 GE.
‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
But I do get the feeling the conservative grassroots still like Boris. Bumbling incompetence and cynical venality cancelled out by his supposed quixotic patriotism.
I think you underestimate the extent to which people implicitly believe what is written in their newspapers of choice. They have little or no exposure to countering arguments. Most Tory grassroots still take the Telegraph. They believe Johnson.
It's OK C_R it's just the Tory Party having a collective nervous breakdown for the second weekend in a row.
It's people throwing their hats in the ring to make sure they can trade a Cabinet seat in the new regime. Well, I hope whoever wins completely ignore any such pledge they may have made. The last thing we need is the same shit team under a new manager. Clear most of them out, start again.....
It shows what it thinks would have happened had we taken a different course. Balls and uncles come to mind.
PS My stories may be sh*te but they are my own work.
You have misunderstood the CER graph. The comparison is with the actual performance of a basket of other countries used to model our own economy.
Nobody is seriously claiming Brexit has aided our economy, and there’s decent enough evidence of resultant economic slowdown, yet for some reason PB’s finest wish to attack this graph?
It must truly be embarrassing to have voted for Brexit.
Not at all you halfwitted cretinous blowhard, get your head out of your own butt.
The cretin is you.
I presume you post from an asylum as your contributions are both repetitive and demented.
Have you ever read the right wing bilge you post. You must be a right bundle of laughs, I would expect you to have a little moustache and like painting.
Either you have never read any of my posts, or you have a singular definition of “right wing”.
I have had the misfortune to read some and you do not come across well. Self righteous , hard hearted right wing despot who would suggest the poor "eat cake" and if they do not share your superior opinion they are stupid.
‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.
On 108 occasions, the prime minister pledged that Britain would leave the European Union on March 29th. Yet with just over a week to go, she wrote to Donald Tusk, to ask for more time. She told parliament that she didn't want to do it, but she had to.
But this time it's different from the previous u-turn on extension.. She has already told parliament that the UK would have to find "an alternative way forward", which was "almost certain" to involve holding European elections. She has also confirmed that parliament doesn't want a no deal (and neither does she)
So that's what going to happen. (Value at 1.32 on Betfair). The question is: what reason (or "political event") is she going to give the EU?
She has several options:
1. A General Election. Possible but looking very risky for the Tories at the moment (and risky for the EU unless they foresee a Corbyn minority government that will break the logjam) 2. A change of Tory leader. Very risky for the EU. Even more of a logjam in parliament under a Brexit PM. 3. She pledges to allow parliament to determine the way forward (Letwin) and enact its conclusions. But is that in her character? 4. A second referendum. She won't ask for that except as a result of 3. 5. ??
HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.
Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
More moronic bollox from the Tories, too thick to make a decision themselves they now want to bring in the nutters from the other useless parties to make it even worse.
‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.
It would be the best option for the country but yes party politics as ever comes first
But an option with huge if not yet overwhelming support isn't even on the agenda of the normal political process. If you are a fan of democracy that ought to worry you.
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
More moronic bollox from the Tories, too thick to make a decision themselves they now want to bring in the nutters from the other useless parties to make it even worse.
I don't think Major was suggesting that SNP MPs be invited to join the GoNU.
HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.
Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%
This is where I think the Shagger's party appeal intersects with a national appeal as mentioned below. Alex is probably correct that Tory members don't see his flaws ; but a number of Tory voters rather than members see his flaws and still support him.
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
More moronic bollox from the Tories, too thick to make a decision themselves they now want to bring in the nutters from the other useless parties to make it even worse.
Don't worry - I doubt they'll ask the nutters from the SNP.
Yes/no questions with no other options would be better presented without the DKs:
Revoke - 51% support Referendum - 51% No Deal - 46%
46% for No Deal is 1% more than the 45% Yes to independence in Scotland got.
Remain and revoke Article 50 might narrowly win an EUref2 over Leave with No Deal but on those numbers there will be a lot of furious Leave voters and Brexiteers
Yes/no questions with no other options would be better presented without the DKs:
Revoke - 51% support Referendum - 51% No Deal - 46%
Gosh - all they really show is a country split down the middle - if anything worse than 2016, with the two main parties heading to the extremes. It's scary.
Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.
It would be the best option for the country but yes party politics as ever comes first
I'd think it quite attractive to Labour
It gets rid of Brexit, at least temporarily and possibly permanently, with a range of fingerprints on the deed. Their involvement gives their new team some credibility. The Tories will find it more difficult and are more likely to split over it. And being clearly temporary it leads inevitably toward a GE.
I am going to pose a question as I do not know the answer
There is a wide held view that no deal will not happen, but that contradicts many including the EU
So, in order for no deal to be stopped
TM WDA is approved before 12th April and if not
I assume legislation is required to pass both the HOC and HOL and needs royal assent
Furthermore, is legislation required for the UK to take part in the EU elections
I am very interested in fellow posters comments and knowledge
I disclaim any knowledge, but it seems to me that even if a significant majority in the House can agree on a serious alternative to May’s WA, it would need at a minimum to be able to demonstrate to the EU that the majority is sustainable - if there were to be any chance of a further extension from the EU.
Passing legislation into law without the co-operation of the government simply isnt going to happen in the next ten days. And almost certainly isn’t, even with it.
In other words, any significant alternative needs the current government’s active approval, or a new government commanding a majority in the existing parliament, by the end of the week.
Just guessing here but on the EU elections point they would presumably only need something passed to hold them if article 50 or something else elections.
All guesswork no knowledge.
The EU election issue is a distraction, I think. They could be managed much more easily than any alternative deal which required our holding them could be arranged.
Also partially in response to Big G
My other guess would be along the lines of Edmund, EU doesn't want no deal, euro elections are the only requirement otherwise Ireland has a big problem and the EU have their back. Macron will talk tough but the 27 will come to a position of extension just for Euro elections.
It is the British side that is the bigger potential problems, say if May wanted no deal.
The problem is that both May and Corbyn want no deal. Which is why we have to bypass both front benches and take back control. The GNU doesn't have to do much nor last very long- a caretaker government which allows No Deal Brexit to be stopped, gives time for both parties to resolve their splits and then call an election. And if their caretaker programme does a few other useful things like scrap the FTPA and bring in STV then all the better.
May does not want No Deal, if she did we would have left the EU last Friday with No Deal and No extension of Article 50
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
More moronic bollox from the Tories, too thick to make a decision themselves they now want to bring in the nutters from the other useless parties to make it even worse.
Don't worry - I doubt they'll ask the nutters from the SNP.
ha Ha Ha , of course not , sensible adult politicians would not suit their purpose. What a brass neck given the Tories inadequacies having been laid bare over the last few years, their total incompetence , uselessness , bribery and begging could not help. You must polish that neck day and night to come up with that cracker.
Yes/no questions with no other options would be better presented without the DKs:
Revoke - 51% support Referendum - 51% No Deal - 46%
46% for No Deal is 1% more than the 45% Yes to independence in Scotland got.
Remain and revoke Article 50 might narrowly win an EUref2 over Leave with No Deal but on those numbers there will be a lot of furious Leave voters and Brexiteers
I think people are making the mistake of thinking that people favouring No deal are mutually exclusive from those favouring Revoke. I suspect there is substantial crossover.
The explanation? All these people want is it to be over (or at least the current impasse), one way or another. They don't believe no deal will be as disastrous as claimed, and they believe that revoke will just be a return to the status quo.
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.
Indeed. What would this national unity government agree on? They're all still in 'you must do as I say' mode.
Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%
HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.
Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%
This is where I think the Shagger's party appeal intersects with a national appeal as mentioned below. Alex is probably correct that Tory members don't see his flaws ; but a number of Tory voters rather than members see his flaws and still support him.
Yes, Boris is the most charismatic Tory candidate and like Trump a marmite figure, you either love Boris or loathe him
Major says there will always be a right and left party in British politics but it must be the centre right that pushes to win and not the far right
Sounds like he has put his pants on back to front. Desperate when they are down to having to bring him out of the crypt , next we will get a vow from him and the great clunking no user.
Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.
Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government
I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.
It would be the best option for the country but yes party politics as ever comes first
I'd think it quite attractive to Labour
It gets rid of Brexit, at least temporarily and possibly permanently, with a range of fingerprints on the deed. Their involvement gives their new team some credibility. The Tories will find it more difficult and are more likely to split over it. And being clearly temporary it leads inevitably toward a GE.
Of course it was the Tories who broke up the Lloyd George national Government under Bonar Law
Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.
I think you underestimate at 400, much higher I think.
I disclaim any knowledge, but it seems to me that even if a significant majority in the House can agree on a serious alternative to May’s WA, it would need at a minimum to be able to demonstrate to the EU that the majority is sustainable - if there were to be any chance of a further extension from the EU.
Passing legislation into law without the co-operation of the government simply isnt going to happen in the next ten days. And almost certainly isn’t, even with it.
In other words, any significant alternative needs the current government’s active approval, or a new government commanding a majority in the existing parliament, by the end of the week.
Just guessing here but on the EU elections point they would presumably only need something passed to hold them if article 50 or something else elections.
All guesswork no knowledge.
The EU election issue is a distraction, I think. They could be managed much more easily than any alternative deal which required our holding them could be arranged.
Also partially in response to Big G
My other guess would be along the lines of Edmund, EU doesn't want no deal, euro elections are the only requirement otherwise Ireland has a big problem and the EU have their back. Macron will talk tough but the 27 will come to a position of extension just for Euro elections.
It is the British side that is the bigger potential problems, say if May wanted no deal.
The problem is that both May and Corbyn want no deal. Which is why we have to bypass both front benches and take back control. The GNU doesn't have to do much nor last very long- a caretaker government which allows No Deal Brexit to be stopped, gives time for both parties to resolve their splits and then call an election. And if their caretaker programme does a few other useful things like scrap the FTPA and bring in STV then all the better.
May does not want No Deal, if she did we would have left the EU last Friday with No Deal and No extension of Article 50
That is, I think, very true. It also seems to me that her view has genuinely changed since the days of 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.
As PM she will have briefings second to noneon the impact of No Deal Brexit and she has clearly decided she cannot put the country through that - even though it has meant back-tracking on one of her earlier grand statements.
Given May's inherent intransigence, that tells me a lot about how dire the impact of a No Deal Brexit would really be.
It shows what it thinks would have happened had we taken a different course. Balls and uncles come to mind.
PS My stories may be sh*te but they are my own work.
You have misunderstood the CER graph. The comparison is with the actual performance of a basket of other countries used to model our own economy.
Nobody is seriously claiming Brexit has aided our economy, and there’s decent enough evidence of resultant economic slowdown, yet for some reason PB’s finest wish to attack this graph?
It must truly be embarrassing to have voted for Brexit.
It must be totally embarrasing to take the CER graph at face value without delving into the source of their data. This is a fine example of cherry-picking your data.
So what? If our economy were in lock-step with the German economy, we'd have been able to join the Euro. It is you who is cherry-picking data. The deviation is real. The interpretation, or if you prefer, the speculation that this is due to Brexit could, however, be wrong.
It seems you don't understand - the figures have been selected to show that the UK is doing worse than other countries, and then hang the blame on Brexit - It is true that we are doing relatively worse than the USA - but we are growing at a comparable rate to Germany and Luxembourg. The reason why we are doing worse than the USA is due to Trump's expansionist policies - cutting taxes etc and has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that we held a referendum in 2016.
When you say we are growing at a comparable rate to Germany it’s key to remember that the Eurozone is still printing money. Hundreds of billions a year.
Without that the economy would be on the floor.
We are growing slowly but without the need for steroids.
Passing legislation into law without the co-operation of the government simply isnt going to happen in the next ten days. And almost certainly isn’t, even with it.
In other words, any significant alternative needs the current government’s active approval, or a new government commanding a majority in the existing parliament, by the end of the week.
Just guessing here but on the EU elections point they would presumably only need something passed to hold them if article 50 or something else elections.
All guesswork no knowledge.
The EU election issue is a distraction, I think. They could be managed much more easily than any alternative deal which required our holding them could be arranged.
Also partially in response to Big G
My other guess would be along the lines of Edmund, EU doesn't want no deal, euro elections are the only requirement otherwise Ireland has a big problem and the EU have their back. Macron will talk tough but the 27 will come to a position of extension just for Euro elections.
It is the British side that is the bigger potential problems, say if May wanted no deal.
The problem is that both May and Corbyn want no deal. Which is why we have to bypass both front benches and take back control. The GNU doesn't have to do much nor last very long- a caretaker government which allows No Deal Brexit to be stopped, gives time for both parties to resolve their splits and then call an election. And if their caretaker programme does a few other useful things like scrap the FTPA and bring in STV then all the better.
May does not want No Deal, if she did we would have left the EU last Friday with No Deal and No extension of Article 50
That is, I think, very true. It also seems to me that her view has genuinely changed since the days of 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.
As PM she will have briefings second to noneon the impact of No Deal Brexit and she has clearly decided she cannot put the country through that - even though it has meant back-tracking on one of her earlier grand statements.
Given May's inherent intransigence, that tells me a lot about how dire the impact of a No Deal Brexit would really be.
Indeed. The only counter-argument would be if frantic no deal preparations were going on now and over the next couple of weeks. Some things are being done, for sure, such as the M20 rehearsals, but it doesn't feel to me like the admin side of government is behaving as it would if exit on the 12th were a strong probability.
Rawnsley: She got the keys to Number 10 because Tory MPs thought her a safe bet. She’s been anything but.
One of her few friends once told me that Mrs May approached Brexit as if the country had set her a piece of fiendishly difficult homework. The downside of this doggedness has been inflexibility... She didn’t have the largeness of character and the breadth of political skills necessary to handle the vast complexity of the Brexit challenge, but then it is arguable that such a person does not exist.
The Tory party is now preparing to find a new chief for its cannibalistic tribe. It will be convenient for a lot of people, especially those planning to contest for the corroded crown, to cast all the blame for 33 months of unrelenting and still unresolved chaos on the woman who will soon be leaving Number 10. Convenient, but not altogether accurate. The problem with the Conservative party is not Mrs May. The problem with the Conservative party is the Conservative party. The problem with Brexit is not Mrs May. The problem with Brexit is Brexit.
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
Comments
[comedian front runner] has torn up the rule book for election campaigning, the BBC's Jonah Fisher reports from Kiev. He has done no rallies and few interviews, and appears to have no strong political views apart from a wish to be new and different.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47763176
Is being new and different, or stating you will be new and different, really enough to win elections now? Apparently. I hope it works out for them. It really feels like the sort of thing which can blow up in your face later as people don't really know what you stand for.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html
Off topic, I keep getting adverts for sandals on PB. Targeted marketing at LibDems gone slightly astray.
Revoke pretty much in the bag, I think we can all agree.
We will then hurtle into a General Election as the irreconcilables won’t support May in a VONC.
What fun.
Alternatively, May refuses to pursue a CU, we crash out, or Parliament gets its act together and VONCs her, with Corbyn as new PM.
Three options. All great.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/mind-the-gap-why-the-brexit-debacle-has-put-both-labour-and-the-tories-under-threat/
Meanwhile someone has gamely started a new "no deal" one, currently on 72,500
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361?s=19
I think thats what would be called 'a tie'
Isn't the old No Deal one still running and just shy of 600k?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/mind-the-gap-why-the-brexit-debacle-has-put-both-labour-and-the-tories-under-threat/
Revoke - 51% support
Referendum - 51%
No Deal - 46%
But this time it's different from the previous u-turn on extension.. She has already told parliament that the UK would have to find "an alternative way forward", which was "almost certain" to involve holding European elections. She has also confirmed that parliament doesn't want a no deal (and neither does she)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47752017
So that's what going to happen. (Value at 1.32 on Betfair). The question is: what reason (or "political event") is she going to give the EU?
She has several options:
1. A General Election. Possible but looking very risky for the Tories at the moment (and risky for the EU unless they foresee a Corbyn minority government that will break the logjam)
2. A change of Tory leader. Very risky for the EU. Even more of a logjam in parliament under a Brexit PM.
3. She pledges to allow parliament to determine the way forward (Letwin) and enact its conclusions. But is that in her character?
4. A second referendum. She won't ask for that except as a result of 3.
5. ??
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org
New social conservatives: 27%
New social liberal 24%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
LibDem around 4%
Others 3%
Under our current voting system that would be a very messy election, impossible to predict.
Remain and revoke Article 50 might narrowly win an EUref2 over Leave with No Deal but on those numbers there will be a lot of furious Leave voters and Brexiteers
That Watson said it, or that its Labour Policy?
It gets rid of Brexit, at least temporarily and possibly permanently, with a range of fingerprints on the deed. Their involvement gives their new team some credibility. The Tories will find it more difficult and are more likely to split over it. And being clearly temporary it leads inevitably toward a GE.
The explanation? All these people want is it to be over (or at least the current impasse), one way or another. They don't believe no deal will be as disastrous as claimed, and they believe that revoke will just be a return to the status quo.
He’s a great reverse indicator.
Does Theresa May resign?
As PM she will have briefings second to noneon the impact of No Deal Brexit and she has clearly decided she cannot put the country through that - even though it has meant back-tracking on one of her earlier grand statements.
Given May's inherent intransigence, that tells me a lot about how dire the impact of a No Deal Brexit would really be.
Without that the economy would be on the floor.
We are growing slowly but without the need for steroids.
All over. All over.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.