politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Following the overnight allegations about WH2016 Dem favourite
Comments
-
No deal will just be a different type of self-destruction for them.TGOHF said:The option for the Cons is quite simple - no deal, new leader and 3 years to focus on the post austerity Uk.
All else is slow death.0 -
The 25% lead was an outlier.AndyJS said:Someone must be writing a book right now about how the Tories went from a 25 point lead in the polls to the situation they're in today in the space of less than two years. IIRC they had those massive leads in April 2017.
But double digit leads were not.0 -
geoffw said:
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Correct. Cameron left the Tories in a massive hole. And May has spent the past three years digging deeper and deeper. Much too deep for them to climb out now.edmundintokyo said:
It was David Cameron who screwed the Tories, TMay was just the unlucky person left standing when the music stoppedbigjohnowls said:
Must be close to overall Maj.bigjohnowls said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
TM has royally screwed the Tories0 -
Never heard of them.. trust polls at your perilFoxy said:
FWIW, without ChUK:HYUFD said:
Corbyn does not win a majority even on this poll and will need SNP or LD support to form a government.GIN1138 said:
Haven't I been saying Jezza will be in with a majority government at the next election?bigjohnowls said:
Must be close to overall Maj.bigjohnowls said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
TM has royally screwed the Tories
The key will to not do anything *too* radical in the first time and make sure they secure a second term...
After which...
A Boris led Tories could have a double digit lead over a Corbyn/SNP or Corbyn/LD government within a year
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1112108978077605888?s=19
0 -
JackW's pies for the people!JackW said:
In light of the impending Jezza revolution I wish to be addressed as "My Lord Comrade". Auchentennach Castle will be turned into a re-education centre for unreconstructed Liberal Democrats and the wider estate will be an open camp for the rump Tory traitors.bigjohnowls said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
Power To The People.
Phew .....
0 -
How do they last three years after no dealing? WIth the DUP they have an notional effective majority now of, what, 2? Do we really think no other Tories will jump ship if we no deal, not even 1? In the event of no deal would even Tiggers and indys who will probably lose their seats really prop the Tories up?TGOHF said:The option for the Cons is quite simple - no deal, new leader and 3 years to focus on the post austerity Uk.
All else is slow death.0 -
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.0 -
I think if May thought it was possible to force through No Deal, she would have done it for yesterday. Simple fact is there aren't the numbers for it in Parliament.0
-
I think that might only happen if the Tories followed through on the second part of WilliamGlenn's advice.HYUFD said:
If that happens the Tories would not just lose to Corbyn they would not even be the official opposition, that would be Farage's new Brexit Partywilliamglenn said:Faced with a pointless Brexit and electoral annihilation, the Conservatives' best option by far is to offer a Deal/Remain referendum.
Then when Remain wins, purge the nutters.
From a Tory point of view, both an election or no-deal would seem to lead to a Labour government in short order. A referendum is the only option that may weaken them, but doesn't guarantee that.0 -
You may be right. But if their expectation is that Corbyn will resolve that they will be sadly mistaken.AndyJS said:If Corbyn wins, it'll be because so many people are annoyed about things like the fact that it's almost impossible to buy a house in many parts of the country, whereas 30 or 40 years ago it wasn't particularly difficult.
0 -
Dropped 11% in a month; is that a record?Foxy said:
Also with ChUK:bigjohnowls said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107512478736385?s=19
Those May locals look to be interesting.0 -
If May wants her Deal and Brexit, that is all she has to do. Simples.edmundintokyo said:
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.0 -
But there were 13 polls showing Tory leads in the range of 20% - 25%.Sean_F said:
The 25% lead was an outlier.AndyJS said:Someone must be writing a book right now about how the Tories went from a 25 point lead in the polls to the situation they're in today in the space of less than two years. IIRC they had those massive leads in April 2017.
But double digit leads were not.0 -
So what, even Peter Hitchens and many Tory voters want to nationalise Rail and energy and water. Corbyn would try and nationalise everything from the banks to the supermarkets if he got the chance, never mind just public utilities.AmpfieldAndy said:
Well, she wants to nationalise rail and energy and already has water in public hands so not convinced she wouldn’t nationalise like Corbyn. She certainly wants to tax land like Corbyn which has impoverished every country it’s ever been tried in. I’ll grant you Hamas.HYUFD said:
SturgsAmpfieldAndy said:
Look at her policies - higher taxation, more state control, named personsHYUFD said:
Sturgeon is a Social Democrat not a socialistAmpfieldAndy said:
I am not convinced she wourbyn.HYUFD said:
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINOAmpfieldAndy said:
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.HYUFD said:
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Oppositionwilliamglenn said:
Perhapsnsion.HYUFD said:
Boris joint top even ywayTheScreamingEagles said:
No they don't.HYUFD said:
If the Tories want to beat Corbyn confirms they need BorisTheScreamingEagles said:
That opinium poll is an outlier.
Ipsos Mori are the gold standard.
https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/1111555698918330370
The point is though she wouldn’t care what Corbyn did as long as she got her Independence referendum so if she does become a kingmaker, I just don’t see her as a restraining influence.
The problem for Sturgeon is she won't get Brexit unless No Deal in all likelihood on current polling and she can hardly demand Corbyn delivers hard Brexit, so if as expected she demands Corbyn pursues SM and CU BINO ironically that will lessen the chances of Scottish independence while the sight of the SNP in government forcing BINO or even revoke will only increase English nationalist sentiment amongst English Leave voters
0 -
So as I said Labour still short of an overall majority and needs the LDs or the SNP to form a governmentFoxy said:
FWIW, without ChUK:HYUFD said:
Corbyn does not win a majority even on this poll and will need SNP or LD support to form a government.GIN1138 said:
Haven't I been saying Jezza will be in with a majority government at the next election?bigjohnowls said:
Must be close to overall Maj.bigjohnowls said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
TM has royally screwed the Tories
The key will to not do anything *too* radical in the first time and make sure they secure a second term...
After which...
A Boris led Tories could have a double digit lead over a Corbyn/SNP or Corbyn/LD government within a year
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1112108978077605888?s=190 -
No party that focuses exclusively on Brexit to the exclusion of all else as May has required of the Tories is going to win a general election, no matter whether its no deal, no Brexit or something in between.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
May’s successor can’t come soon enough and desperately needs to develop a broad policy platform. The next election will be about the economy, jobs, standard of living, NHS, immigration etc as it always is.0 -
When even Hodges thinks Corbyn is in a strong position, I think that sends its own message. The DUP have helped deliver in a likely Corbyn government. Their principles will help them deal with that I am sure.Scott_P said:0 -
I think Gordon Brown dropped more during the election that never was of 2007.IanB2 said:
Dropped 11% in a month; is that a record?Foxy said:
Also with ChUK:bigjohnowls said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107512478736385?s=19
Those May locals look to be interesting.0 -
Can only hope Macron puts us out of our misery.
Veni veni Emmanuel!0 -
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.edmundintokyo said:
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.0 -
Steady on !!!Foxy said:
JackW's pies for the people!JackW said:
In light of the impending Jezza revolution I wish to be addressed as "My Lord Comrade". Auchentennach Castle will be turned into a re-education centre for unreconstructed Liberal Democrats and the wider estate will be an open camp for the rump Tory traitors.bigjohnowls said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
Power To The People.
Phew .....0 -
Ian Dunkin Donuts to offer himself as potential PM.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/iain-duncan-smith-to-join-14210921?s1
File under things that won't happen.0 -
Bear in mind TIG might not vote for a GE.
Heidi Allen specifically said she wouldn't vote for a GE - and she is interim leader of TIG.0 -
I’m sorry but those thinking no deal will save the Tories are missing a glaring problem .
No deal only saves them if it’s not a car crash . Do people think those currently saying no deal is fine will thank the Tories if the economy heads south . The only way they can get through this is with a deal.
The no deal MPs clearly have lost the plot .0 -
Technically she doesn't need the approval of parliament, she just needs to fail at prime ministering. If she doesn't send in a request for an extension by April 12th then it's No Deal.DanSmith said:I think if May thought it was possible to force through No Deal, she would have done it for yesterday. Simple fact is there aren't the numbers for it in Parliament.
She probably loses a VONC the next day, but it'll be too late to go back.0 -
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.Sean_F said:
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.edmundintokyo said:
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.0 -
It’s an utter car crash now.nico67 said:I’m sorry but those thinking no deal will save the Tories are missing a glaring problem .
No deal only saves them if it’s not a car crash . Do people think those currently saying no deal is fine will thank the Tories if the economy heads south . The only way they can get through this is with a deal.
The no deal MPs clearly have lost the plot .0 -
-
And there's 170 of them! It appears to be the preferred plan B of the tory party by a big margin.nico67 said:I’m sorry but those thinking no deal will save the Tories are missing a glaring problem .
No deal only saves them if it’s not a car crash . Do people think those currently saying no deal is fine will thank the Tories if the economy heads south . The only way they can get through this is with a deal.
The no deal MPs clearly have lost the plot .
God I hope the Commons can come up with something on Monday.
If it was the only way to avoid no deal though?MikeL said:Bear in mind TIG might not vote for a GE.
Heidi Allen specifically said she wouldn't vote for a GE - and she is interim leader of TIG.0 -
You are right. Peter Hennessy made the point yesterday in Any Questions that governments do not win single-issue elections.AmpfieldAndy said:
No party that focuses exclusively on Brexit to the exclusion of all else as May has required of the Tories is going to win a general election, no matter whether its no deal, no Brexit or something in between.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
May’s successor can’t come soon enough and desperately needs to develop a broad policy platform. The next election will be about the economy, jobs, standard of living, NHS, immigration etc as it always is.
0 -
I can report I have now covered my passport in blue wrapping paper!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enjoying our first 24 hours of "Independence", GIN?GIN1138 said:
All roads lead to REMAIN eh William?williamglenn said:Faced with a pointless Brexit and electoral annihilation, the Conservatives best option by far is to offer a Deal/Remain referendum.
Then when Remain wins, purge the nutters.
0 -
Hitchens is foolish then because nationalisation is not the answer to the problems that exist in any industry let alone rail and utilities.HYUFD said:
So what, even Peter Hitchens and many Tory voters want to nationalise Rail and energy and water. Corbyn would try and nationalise everything from the banks to the supermarkets if he got the chance, never mind just public utilities.AmpfieldAndy said:
The point is though she wouldn’t care what Corbyn did as long as she got her Independence referendum so if she does become a kingmaker, I just don’t see her as a restraining influence.HYUFD said:
SturgsAmpfieldAndy said:
Look at her policies - higher taxation, more state control, named personsHYUFD said:
Sturgeon is a Social Democrat not a socialistAmpfieldAndy said:
I am not convinced she wourbyn.HYUFD said:
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINOAmpfieldAndy said:
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.HYUFD said:williamglenn said:
Perhapsnsion.HYUFD said:
Boris joint top even ywayTheScreamingEagles said:
No they don't.HYUFD said:
If the Tories want to beat Corbyn confirms they need BorisTheScreamingEagles said:
That opinium poll is an outlier.
Ipsos Mori are the gold standard.
https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/1111555698918330370
The problem for Sturgeon is she won't get Brexit unless No Deal in all likelihood on current polling and she can hardly demand Corbyn delivers hard Brexit, so if as expected she demands Corbyn pursues SM and CU BINO ironically that will lessen the chances of Scottish independence while the sight of the SNP in government forcing BINO or even revoke will only increase English nationalist sentiment amongst English Leave voters
No deal makes Scottish Independence very difficult - out of the EU and out of the rest of Britain market. Salmonds predictions for oil have been well and truly debunked.
0 -
It might just scrape through if half the payroll vote backed it, but then you get into an argument about what should be on the ballot.Pulpstar said:
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.Sean_F said:
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.edmundintokyo said:
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
But seriously, no PM is going to propose something that 98% of her party oppose on a free vote.0 -
Surely at this point it must be quicker to list the Conservatives NOT threatening to resign for one reason or another.0
-
It does if the PM whips for it. Not saying she would, but the option's there if she wants it.Pulpstar said:
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.Sean_F said:
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.edmundintokyo said:
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.0 -
ACTIVATE THE QUEEN.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The justification for another referendum must be that we now know more about what the alternatives imply. That is obviously true for "Deal". But "Remain" has been left unexamined. It is certainly not the status quo ante.edmundintokyo said:
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
0 -
-
NEW THREAD
0 -
-
Customs Union is closer, even though it's a real Ramsey McDonald option for the Tories at least it has more than 8 in favour. We'll have to see how it does on the indicative votes, Monday though.Sean_F said:
It might just scrape through if half the payroll vote backed it, but then you get into an argument about what should be on the ballot.Pulpstar said:
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.Sean_F said:
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.edmundintokyo said:
That one also leads to Corbyn.geoffw said:Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
But seriously, no PM is going to propose something that 98% of her party oppose on a free vote.0 -
Revoke now more popular than a #peoplesvoteScott_P said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361?s=190 -
I honestly think that this is our best option now. The EU should announce that since the UK is incapable of making up its mind they will decide for it. The UK will leave on 11th April with no deal or 22nd May with the deal already negotiated. The UK could still opt to revoke but only by the earlier date.geoffw said:Can only hope Macron puts us out of our misery.
Veni veni Emmanuel!
Our politicians have proven themselves to be completely useless and incompetent. It is troubling.0 -
Tiggers and indyskle4 said:
How do they last three years after no dealing? WIth the DUP they have an notional effective majority now of, what, 2? Do we really think no other Tories will jump ship if we no deal, not even 1? In the event of no deal would even Tiggers and indys who will probably lose their seats really prop the Tories up?TGOHF said:The option for the Cons is quite simple - no deal, new leader and 3 years to focus on the post austerity Uk.
All else is slow death.
They will they are desperate to avoid the day of reckoning0 -
Too late Corbyn has Check Mated the ToriesAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
ACTIVATE THE QUEEN.TheScreamingEagles said:0
