politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This morning’s front pages after the night before
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JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
Damn, he's thick.0 -
What's the 7th option though ? 2nd reffers trying to sneak their option onto the ballot paper a second time
? 0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Adds upto the same thing reallyNigelb said:
I don't think he does. He merely said there was no realistic alternative, for the time being.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable
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Meanwhile, how's that refocusing of our economy on Asia going... ?
https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-steals-trumps-thunder-with-chinese-airbus-order/0 -
JRM not going down well BTL on Guido.0
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Robert Smithson was there three years before him.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
Damn, he's thick.0 -
Either way Ken does not want TM to stand downBenpointer said:
Er, no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Adds upto the same thing reallyNigelb said:
I don't think he does. He merely said there was no realistic alternative, for the time being.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable
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I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.0 -
He should have been reading Raphael Behr about two years ago, then. That's exactly the point he's been making about the Brexiters since then.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
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Why should he? She's a Remainer foil delivering a very soft Brexit. Why replace her with someone who'd probably be a harder Leaver.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Either way Ken does not want TM to stand downBenpointer said:
Er, no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Adds upto the same thing reallyNigelb said:
I don't think he does. He merely said there was no realistic alternative, for the time being.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable
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Rivendell presumably - they can all go as the white wizard.Benpointer said:
Is there a clashing grand wizard meeting somewhere?Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Sky this morning there is an absence of ERG members - maybe they are in panic mode
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tlg86 said:
JRM not going down well BTL on Guido.
If the ERG had read and digested the WA and future political declaration and put out a considered statement on it, rather than trashing it before it arrived, then they could have led (some of) their followers. But enough.tlg86 said:JRM not going down well BTL on Guido.
As usual, stratospheric egos and grandstanding are involved, coupled with dislike of May and her approach to politics and them, which totally coloured not only their judgment but even a willingness to judge.0 -
Just imagine:
Local elections
Euro election
General election
Referendum
All before the autumn equinox
Happy days for PBers.0 -
0
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The point was made on here before the referendum.WhisperingOracle said:
He should have been reading Raphael Behr about two years ago, then. That's exactly the point he's been making about the Brexiters since then.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
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I know.Casino_Royale said:
Robert Smithson was there three years before him.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
Damn, he's thick.
And was wrong in a completely different way...0 -
2nd RefPulpstar said:So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Common Market 2.0
...
May's deal plus CU
Revocation
May's deal
...
...
...
No deal.0 -
She wants economically a soft Brexit, and immigration-wise a very hard Brexit, reflecting her political makeup. Someone like Raab or Johnson may be much more likely to opt for the priorities reversed.Philip_Thompson said:
Why should he? She's a Remainer foil delivering a very soft Brexit. Why replace her with someone who'd probably be a harder Leaver.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Either way Ken does not want TM to stand downBenpointer said:
Er, no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Adds upto the same thing reallyNigelb said:
I don't think he does. He merely said there was no realistic alternative, for the time being.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable
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you really do wonder - if that's true he is as thick Mark Francois - which is about a 0.7 on the Duncan-Smith scale, eponymously named after the only MP to ever score a 1 on the "is this person as stupid as it is possible to be using any known measure available to man" scale developed at the Stretchford Conurbation College of Higher Education Department of idiocy studies by Prof Pieter Enkelt.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
Damn, he's thick.0 -
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE0 -
Mr Newman certainly knows how to trigger Remainers:
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/11103339235218923520 -
Who is the Balrog?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Rivendell presumably - they can all go as the white wizard.Benpointer said:
Is there a clashing grand wizard meeting somewhere?Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Sky this morning there is an absence of ERG members - maybe they are in panic mode
Presumably May's deal which has been told repeatedly it shall not pass.0 -
Yes, it's always been obvious - but the referendum elevated Brexit into a cause, a totem and ideal above all else.Nigelb said:
The point was made on here before the referendum.WhisperingOracle said:
He should have been reading Raphael Behr about two years ago, then. That's exactly the point he's been making about the Brexiters since then.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
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Pulpstar - Common Market 2.0 is really May's deal + Common Market 2.0.OnlyLivingBoy said:
2nd RefPulpstar said:So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Common Market 2.0
...
May's deal plus CU
Revocation
May's deal
...
...
...
No deal.0 -
Otherwise known as the Dohs scale...kingbongo said:
you really do wonder - if that's true he is as thick Mark Francois - which is about a 0.7 on the Duncan-Smith scale, eponymously named after the only MP to ever score a 1 on the "is this person as stupid as it is possible to be using any known measure available to man" scale developed at the Stretchford Conurbation College of Higher Education Department of idiocy studies by Prof Pieter Enkelt.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
Damn, he's thick.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohs_scale_of_mineral_hardness0 -
Well, he started it.CarlottaVance said:Mr Newman certainly knows how to trigger Remainers:
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1110333923521892352
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Newport West By-election. Peterborough By-election. And isn't there another possibly pending?SandyRentool said:Just imagine:
Local elections
Euro election
General election
Referendum
All before the autumn equinox
Happy days for PBers.0 -
It's EEA, isn't it?Pulpstar said:
No, it isn't a unicorn.TheScreamingEagles said:
🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄Nigelb said:
What is Common Market 2.0 ?AlastairMeeks said:I would vote for: May's Deal; May's Deal + CU; 2nd Ref (no particular order, they're all crap but they all offer an acceptable resolution)
I would abstain on Common Market 2.0 (it does not meet the mandate obtained by the campaign)
I would vote against No Deal; Revoke (both would be utterly disastrous in different ways)0 -
The thing is, if it had been laid out to the British public that Brexit would be a process, taking many years, that we'd have to compromise, that the EU would not just roll over and let us cherry-pick our favourite bits...WhisperingOracle said:
Yes ; it's always been obvious - but the referendum elevated Brexit into a cause and a totem above all else.Nigelb said:
The point was made on here before the referendum.WhisperingOracle said:
He should have been reading Raphael Behr about two years ago, then. That's exactly the point he's been making about the Brexiters since then.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
would Leave have won?0 -
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pulpstar - Common Market 2.0 is really May's deal + Common Market 2.0.OnlyLivingBoy said:
2nd RefPulpstar said:So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Common Market 2.0
...
May's deal plus CU
Revocation
May's deal
...
...
...
No deal.0 -
AgreedBig_G_NorthWales said:
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE0 -
Right. On your list you had Corbyn's marked up as essentially a variant of May's deal, but not CM 2.0Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pulpstar - Common Market 2.0 is really May's deal + Common Market 2.0.OnlyLivingBoy said:
2nd RefPulpstar said:So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Common Market 2.0
...
May's deal plus CU
Revocation
May's deal
...
...
...
No deal.0 -
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To be fair, Lidington seems to be doing that role as well as anyone could in the circumstances.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Why isn't he May's Willie?Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable
Clarke's longevity as a politician is such that he sat in cabinet at the same time as Whitelaw. He also served as a whip during the passage of the ECA(1972).0 -
BreconOldKingCole said:
Newport West By-election. Peterborough By-election. And isn't there another possibly pending?SandyRentool said:Just imagine:
Local elections
Euro election
General election
Referendum
All before the autumn equinox
Happy days for PBers.0 -
Interesting graphic - it was Tory switchers that swung Indicative Votes:
https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/11104917887778037760 -
We need to have another referendum IMO, closely followed by a general election. The air needs to be cleared.0
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Sure, the Common Market 2.0 people freely admit their deal includes the WA (Lucy Powell and Stephen Kinnock have said there isn't enough detail in the PD for them to move to May's deal though).TheWhiteRabbit said:
Right. On your list you had Corbyn's marked up as essentially a variant of May's deal, but not CM 2.0Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pulpstar - Common Market 2.0 is really May's deal + Common Market 2.0.OnlyLivingBoy said:
2nd RefPulpstar said:So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Common Market 2.0
...
May's deal plus CU
Revocation
May's deal
...
...
...
No deal.
Corbyn OTOH utterly trashes May's deal even though his Customs thingy includes it too !0 -
It is a process, yes, but it must start with an event and that event is leaving.Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
Damn, he's thick.
And it's the event which is divisive. I know many people are of the view that even if we leave under the Withdrawal Agreement there will follow many years of angst and drama and division as the Future Relationship is negotiated. I disagree with that. I think that once 'the deed' is done, the public interest in the detail of the Trade Talks will be nothing like it is in the existential question of In or Out. I think the EU question, once we have formally left, will no longer dominate - it will take its rightful place as one important and interesting issue amongst many others.0 -
Morning team - just catching up.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.0 -
Agree with your list Ian and your further suggestion. Do it properly.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal0 -
Question: have the DUP ever voted for anything *not* as a monolithic block?0
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French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more0
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Big_G, you seem a bit fixated by the EU elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE
Any of the options requiring an extension beyond May 22nd (or possibly June 30 at a pinch - the EU might flex there) require that we participate in the EU elections.
Even the dimmest of MPs know that. It's a given. We can handle it.0 -
Zut alors.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
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The number of people - the sheer volume of them - who still don't understand this is staggering.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pulpstar - Common Market 2.0 is really May's deal + Common Market 2.0.OnlyLivingBoy said:
2nd RefPulpstar said:So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Common Market 2.0
...
May's deal plus CU
Revocation
May's deal
...
...
...
No deal.
On this thread we've had people saying Norway is better than May's Deal, for example.0 -
And who could blame them?Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
Tough - he doesn't get a say.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
Frankly, who can blame them?Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
Indeed - he can see the sort of MEP we are going to send to the parly this summer if Brexit is canned.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
That’s the best case for Remaining, it annoys the French.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Put that on the side of a bus and revocation of Article 50 wins a landslide in a referendum.0 -
When it comes to France, hasn't that been the case for 40 years?Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Boris is on record, is he not, as saying Remain is better than May's Deal?
How is such a pillar of probity ever going to be able to vote for the unchanged Deal?0 -
People sending their kids to Eton should think twiceTOPPING said:Morning team - just catching up.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
The cream of society, rich and thick0 -
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Well indeed. Though if he wants us out smoothly they have three options. They could reopen the deal and address our concerns on the backstop allowing it to be passed. Or they can veto an extension and force the issue. Or he can shut up and put up with whatever happens.Benpointer said:
Tough - he doesn't get a say.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
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off you go then, I have no problem staying in to screw it upTheScreamingEagles said:
That’s the best case for Remaining, it annoys the French.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Put that on the side of a bus and revocation of Article 50 wins a landslide in a referendum.0 -
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.0 -
Too late.TGOHF said:0 -
When do we expect to see the range of options MPs will be asked to vote on and the process?
I assume Letwin et al will have been working on this with HoC officials for some time.0 -
Many mps and journalist do not mention it and believe me when the populace are faced with EU elections in two weeks time, if it can be agreed by the HOC, there is going to be a backlashBenpointer said:
Big_G, you seem a bit fixated by the EU elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE
Any of the options requiring an extension beyond May 22nd (or possibly June 30 at a pinch - the EU might flex there) require that we participate in the EU elections.
Even the dimmest of MPs know that. It's a given. We can handle it.0 -
There was a Europe Elects tweet yesterday (I think) that gave a projection of the post-July EU27 parliament. It only had a narrow majority for EPP+ALDE+Soc. If you adjusted it for Britain, where there'd be a substantial majority for groups outside those three, it could well tip the balance of the EP (though the schism between UKIP/Brexit Party would be damaging to that cause).TGOHF said:
Indeed - he can see the sort of MEP we are going to send to the parly this summer if Brexit is canned.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.0 -
be realistic Mr T, this is Brexit theres always someone who will blame youTOPPING said:
And who could blame them?Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
Given one of the leading ERG members has only just worked out that Brexit is a process not an event (Up there with 'we're an island off the coast of Europe') your charity does you immense credit, but I fear the preponderance of evidence is overwhelmingly against you.....reportedly Boris, today was writing about the "No Deal transitionBenpointer said:
Even the dimmest of MPs know that. It's a given. We can handle it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE
Big_G's concerns are entirely well-founded.0 -
He might do if we request another extension. Of course in extremis we can revoke A50, that's a bigger political decision than extension though.Benpointer said:
Tough - he doesn't get a say.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldn't welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
Labour would obviously need to be confident of an election in pretty short order.edmundintokyo said:
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.0 -
As they say on the game shows, " let's look at what you could have won..."Nigelb said:JRM..."Perhaps the thought processes that people like me hadn't gone through before is the thought that Brexit is a process rather than an event."
Damn, he's thick.
He could have had both Brexit and being able to spend the rest of his life still agitating for Brexit. Cake and eat it if ever I saw it. He still might get it.0 -
-
Perhaps PB can help out old Stodge this morning
I don't pretend to have the intellectual process of Jacob Rees-Mogg - I think I'm a bit brighter than that - but his assertion (and I've heard this from others) that the only option are passing the WA or having Brexit "stopped" doesn't quite work for me.
Let me work this out - IF the Commons passes the WA (MV3, MV4?) we will leave the EU on May 22nd. Passing the WA will exempt us from the EU Parliamentary elections and we can go back to lauding the English football team in the certain knowledge that having beaten the football titans of Montenegro in qualification we will come up short against the colossi of Iceland, Croatia or perhaps France when the games actually matter.
Okay, let's assume the greatest agreement in the history of mankind doesn't get past the Commons - assuming we have agreed to change the exit date to April 12th what happens then? We have no WA, doesn't that mean we simply leave without a WA which after all is what JRM and his band want? We can't extend further without having(not wanting but having) to take part in the EU Parliamentary elections.
Would we want to do that? We would have to do it if we wanted to stay so the option then becomes a long extension (revocation by any other name) or we leave. Again, as I understand it, the EU deals with the UK Government not the UK Parliament so they will go with what the Prime Minister tells them not what Parliament has voted for. So even if Parliament legislates against No Deal (akin to trying to legislate against snow), if the UK Government has not get the WA through and doesn't want to extend Brexit even longer, then we are gone as they cannot give us more time if we are not going to hold the EU Parliamentary elections.
If we want to avoid No Deal, we can either pass the WA or be forced into a much longer extension than might be politically acceptable (to paraphrase Narnia, "always A50 and never Brexit") but if neither option commands the support of the Commons, that's what will happen and all the indicative votes in the world don't change that.
It's really that simple and everything else is just noise.0 -
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.Benpointer said:
Tough - he doesn't get a say.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
If that's going to happen why faff around with the Commons taking control when you could just have the election? I mean, whatever government you end up with after the election isn't going to care what the previous parliament thought...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Labour would obviously need to be confident of an election in pretty short order.edmundintokyo said:
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.0 -
May, or whoever is PM comes back with the fully fledged trade deal at the end of the two year period. Parliament can easily vote it down if it so chooses, and tell her or Gove or Boris to go back and get a softer one.edmundintokyo said:
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.0 -
Rather hard to row back when you've been so ludicrously OTT beforehand. What an absolute tool.CarlottaVance said:0
-
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.WhisperingOracle said:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.0 -
I think they'd be held on 23rd May if we are still in at that point. But yes in two weeks time we'd know they were to be held.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Many mps and journalist do not mention it and believe me when the populace are faced with EU elections in two weeks time, if it can be agreed by the HOC, there is going to be a backlashBenpointer said:
Big_G, you seem a bit fixated by the EU elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE
Any of the options requiring an extension beyond May 22nd (or possibly June 30 at a pinch - the EU might flex there) require that we participate in the EU elections.
Even the dimmest of MPs know that. It's a given. We can handle it.
How do you think the backlash will manifest itself?0 -
If you're Labour you don't agree with the current PD on the FP. So you'd vote for a revised PD with the WA to allow yourself the room to do Corbyn's Customs Union after an election.edmundintokyo said:
If that's going to happen why faff around with the Commons taking control when you could just have the election? I mean, whatever government you end up with after the election isn't going to care what the previous parliament thought...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Labour would obviously need to be confident of an election in pretty short order.edmundintokyo said:
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.0 -
Letwin and May have achieved the seemingly impossible - they’ve made Corbyn’s Labour look competent and credible. What a pair of muppets.0
-
Any lingering doubts as to whether JRM could be next Con leader / PM should now be answered (to think he was once favourite!!). Even now, he's widely between 20/1 and 28/1, which gives him twice the chance of, say, Matt Hancock.TOPPING said:Morning team - just catching up.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.0 -
If they exercise their choice he gets no choice if we revoke I think is the point. I wonder how Parliament would vote in a forced No Deal or Revoke choice.david_herdson said:
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.Benpointer said:
Tough - he doesn't get a say.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
0 -
Labour and LDs will do ok.Benpointer said:
I think they'd be held on 23rd May if we are still in at that point. But yes in two weeks time we'd know they were to be held.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Many mps and journalist do not mention it and believe me when the populace are faced with EU elections in two weeks time, if it can be agreed by the HOC, there is going to be a backlashBenpointer said:
Big_G, you seem a bit fixated by the EU elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE
Any of the options requiring an extension beyond May 22nd (or possibly June 30 at a pinch - the EU might flex there) require that we participate in the EU elections.
Even the dimmest of MPs know that. It's a given. We can handle it.
How do you think the backlash will manifest itself?
Who can think of a reason to vote Con in an EU election ?
Kipper, Brexit Party or stay home will pick up a huge chunk of the blue vote.0 -
Yes, as I mentioned on Saturday I saw multiple placards at the march from Devon.AndyJS said:
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.WhisperingOracle said:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.0 -
I understand that Letwin and others thought that once their amendment passed Bercow would instruct the means of voting with a remain leaning influence but to be fair to Bercow he said it was a matter for Letwin and others throwing it straight back to them. Now Letwin and others cannot agree on how the voting should be conducted
Utter and complete shambles0 -
Amber Rudd, Rees Mogg and David Lidington have all been flights of fancy in this marketdavid_herdson said:
Any lingering doubts as to whether JRM could be next Con leader / PM should now be answered (to think he was once favourite!!). Even now, he's widely between 20/1 and 28/1, which gives him twice the chance of, say, Matt Hancock.TOPPING said:Morning team - just catching up.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.0 -
Cameron, Boris, and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Thank heaven our new saviour, Oliver Letwin, went to ... oh, dear!Alanbrooke said:
People sending their kids to Eton should think twiceTOPPING said:Morning team - just catching up.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
The cream of society, rich and thick0 -
They can vote against it, but they can only vote it down if the ERG and the DUP are also opposed to it.Pulpstar said:
May, or whoever is PM comes back with the fully fledged trade deal at the end of the two year period. Parliament can easily vote it down if it so chooses, and tell her or Gove or Boris to go back and get a softer one.edmundintokyo said:
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.
Now, it's true that the ERG and the DUP like voting against things, so maybe that's what'll happen. But the WA, and specifically the backstop, is basically *designed* to make not coming up with a deal suck for the ERG and the DUP. If TMay has their votes, she's not going to care what Labour MPs think, and whenever she's had a choice between trying to get their votes and trying to get the votes of someone in the opposition, she's always gone for the ERG/DUP route.0 -
That is not strictly true.Anorak said:
The number of people - the sheer volume of them - who still don't understand this is staggering.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pulpstar - Common Market 2.0 is really May's deal + Common Market 2.0.OnlyLivingBoy said:
2nd RefPulpstar said:So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Common Market 2.0
...
May's deal plus CU
Revocation
May's deal
...
...
...
No deal.
On this thread we've had people saying Norway is better than May's Deal, for example.
If MPs reject May's deal, then the EU extension agreement says that the UK will need to leave the EU on 12 April with no deal, or have decided a new plan by then.
A further extension is then, of course, dependent on both EU agreement, and our taking part in the EU elections.
That is why I'm in favour of Norway - it's effectively off the shelf, so could be done quite quickly, and is very likely to meet with EU agreement.
Apart for that, I fully take your point. The reason I don't think May's deal will fly is not because of its inherent flaws (that I don't personally approve of ending freedom of movement is beside the point), but because of the now total lack of trust in May.
The WA, of course, leaves what happens next at the mercy of whichever government is in power to negotiate with the EU over the next two years.
None of this is satisfactory, but we are where we are.
0 -
The irony is that May's deal may be the only thing standing at the end of this week!
Actually I should refer to "the deal negotiated with EU", it isn't just May's.0 -
Puts Gove in a strong place - he accepted that the TM deal was the only show in town months ago.david_herdson said:
Any lingering doubts as to whether JRM could be next Con leader / PM should now be answered (to think he was once favourite!!). Even now, he's widely between 20/1 and 28/1, which gives him twice the chance of, say, Matt Hancock.TOPPING said:Morning team - just catching up.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
0 -
Indeed. Also, it looks like Cities of London and Westminster is about to overtake Hornsey & Wood Green as the seat with highest percentage of the electorate signing the petition.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes, as I mentioned on Saturday I saw multiple placards at the march from Devon.AndyJS said:
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.WhisperingOracle said:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.0 -
david_herdson said:
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.Benpointer said:
Tough - he doesn't get a say.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Yes but what happened to Macron's bluster in February?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/spanish-pm-warns-may-brexit-delay-with-no-plan-not-reasonable-or-desirable0 -
Fair play to Bercow. He doesn't determine it normally and the motion passed gives MPs the choice not the Speaker so that's entirely appropriate.Big_G_NorthWales said:I understand that Letwin and others thought that once their amendment passed Bercow would instruct the means of voting with a remain leanings influence but to be fair to Bercow he said it was a matter for Letwin and others throwing it straight back to them. Now Letwin and others cannot agree on how the voting should be conducted
Utter and complete shambles0 -
So, not St Petersburg thenAndyJS said:
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.WhisperingOracle said:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
I think as a proportion of the population, Gibraltar is taking 1st prize.0 -
Doesn't Con become a proxy for May's deal versus UKIP no deal versus LibDem PV/revoke versus Labour I am sure they will come up with something?TGOHF said:
Labour and LDs will do ok.Benpointer said:
I think they'd be held on 23rd May if we are still in at that point. But yes in two weeks time we'd know they were to be held.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Many mps and journalist do not mention it and believe me when the populace are faced with EU elections in two weeks time, if it can be agreed by the HOC, there is going to be a backlashBenpointer said:
Big_G, you seem a bit fixated by the EU elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And agree to conduct EU elections in this Country in just over two weeks timeBarnesian said:
I agree with that 100%.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that would be my preference.IanB2 said:
As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.eristdoof said:
Almost the same as my list:IanB2 said:For me:
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
3 - Common Market 2.0
4 -May's Deal + CU
5 -May's Deal
6 - No Deal
1 - 2nd Ref
2 - Revocation
4 - Common Market 2.0
10 -May's Deal + CU
50 -May's Deal
666 - No Deal
1. Revoke.
2. Work out a Brexit plan.
3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.
On no account - No Deal.
Referendum by itself is not a choice. It has to be a referendum between a specific WDA deal (perhaps MrsMay's) plus target future relationship agreed with the EU, and Remain. So you first have to agree what the deal is, as you say. You don't need to have a detailed negotiation on the future relationship with the EU; just agree the target.
That mandatory requirement should be attached to all of referendum, revoke and GE
Any of the options requiring an extension beyond May 22nd (or possibly June 30 at a pinch - the EU might flex there) require that we participate in the EU elections.
Even the dimmest of MPs know that. It's a given. We can handle it.
How do you think the backlash will manifest itself?
Who can think of a reason to vote Con in an EU election ?
Kipper, Brexit Party or stay home will pick up a huge chunk of the blue vote.0 -
Macron blusters in February, Macron blusters in March. Macron just blusters.Benpointer said:david_herdson said:
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.Benpointer said:
Tough - he doesn't get a say.Alanbrooke said:French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Yes but what happened to Macron's bluster in February?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/spanish-pm-warns-may-brexit-delay-with-no-plan-not-reasonable-or-desirable0 -
How can Labour take Theresa May at her word even if she did offer a general election? Leaving aside questions of the Prime Minister's even-handed approach to truth and falsehood, she has told the Conservative Party she will stand down before the next election, but regardless of what she might promise Labour, once she is no longer Prime Minister, she is in no position to call an election.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Labour would obviously need to be confident of an election in pretty short order.edmundintokyo said:
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.Pulpstar said:
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.0
